After a lot of initial comments, I'm for sure going to make a follow up video on why new bike prices HAVE to drop and soon. I don't think people realize how terrible the used bike market is and how much that'll affect new bike sales. Stay tuned my friends!
Should i wait for the used market to come down for my daughter ? Here in quebec province, canada it’s full of overpriced unused bike that you can get at the shop brand new almost at the same price or used bike that people overpaid during covid and just want to get their money back! The used market here is really pathetic and people don’t want to negociate at all. Almost every bike is sitting there for about 4-5 month or more. I hate them seriously
The market is saturated. I've been thinking about this with the skyrocketing prices and the popularity of mountain biking it takes me back when I played paintball and spent loads of money on all the different paintball guns like smartparts, dye, planet eclipse, angel. Even the promotion of clothing and customization for your paintball guns got out of hand then off-brand started popping-up at a discount and then it just slowly lost market share with a wide following of people flocking to new and different hobbies. I'm just saying they're racing to the bottom and only big money and smart heads will come out of this.
@@KoenMiseur i believe Shimano only expand work hour not production capacity. Since they're one of the oldest cycling company. they know the shit happened now and then
Great summary. Another big problem the bike brands are facing is that many of them jacked up the prices of their new models significantly, while lowering the spec/builds quite significantly. So, this means a barely used 20/21/22 model is so much cheaper and better value than the new models - even if the shop/brand discounts the new model by 15-20%. I saw Specialized do this with several of their bikes - they jacked up the price by 20% but downgraded to junk wheels, a bottom spec drivetrain etc. Buy a pre-2023 bike on the used market (where prices are tanking) and you will get a better bike for a lot less money.
OMG so true! Commencal is guilty of this. Before, their base models use to at least run NX groupset. Now they run SX and with other comps lower specs.... all while jacking up the price! I gave up on them and went with a YT since I got better specs for around same price point I was looking at.
Hope they lose out now its there own faults, folks are crazy to even pay for the price increase! Buy used way better, some people buy fancy bikes and dont even use them, thats who i buy from!! Dont let the bike game become a rich mans sport - riding is for everyone
Motocross bikes did NOT go down or stay the same. They didn’t go up as much as bicycles relative to 5 years ago but 5 years ago motocross brands were flirting with $9,999. Now those same models are at $13000. And used bike prices are ridiculously high, almost 50% higher relative to condition and year than they were pre-covid.
I have 3 bike shops within walking distance from me and all 3 are awful. The workers are super rude to anyone thats not dropping top dollar in the shop. Even on the telephone they snap at you. Seriously all 3. I look forward to them shutting down.
I build/rebuild bikes as a hobby. Needless to say, during Covid, I moved close to 150 bikes locally. They basically sold themselves. The magic ended mid 2022. I got lucky and dumped all my bikes, parts, inventory etc... I just focus on my personal bikes now... the market is so saturated and overpriced I would ride what you have and play the waiting game till prices tank further.
Three months later, how do you feel things have settled out? I've been seeing plenty of spring sales, but it's hard to gauge if this _is_ the point where the prices tank or if that's still coming, plenty of popular models that are still seeming to stay at relatively high prices (at least on the budget end of the spectrum).
I've been thinking about this recently. This isn't affecting only the bike industry. A lot of companies in the outdoor gear industry are going to experience this. Hell, it might even happen to vehicles as well. This is well said Josh. Thanks for sharing.
This is absolutely happening in the auto industry too. Used prices are dropping, and new vehicles aren't moving due to sky high interest rates and big price jumps from big auto (and layoffs, rising rents, rising utility costs etc... and people can't easily sell the car they already own, or are getting lowball trade offers these days). Pretty much everything is going on sale this year. Buckle up.
@@Monkeyseemonkey79 except some of the high-end stuff. Porsche is still getting ADMs on their 911's. Long waits and limited production are still the norm here.
@@dudeonbike800 the 1% usually withstand economic downturns pretty well, but I think even Porsche will take a hit in the coming months. Lots of cancelled orders as tech bros get laid off, and the crypto money has evaporated etc.
@@Monkeyseemonkey79 spot on. I read recently that the average car payment in the US is $700. That’s insane. With rates creeping up that will probably go up or they will extend the loan periods out 12-24 months so more people can “afford” to buy a car.
I think a big problem with the bike industry is they don’t really think bikes are transport, there’s very few makers making something like a 3x8/9 rigid commuting bike with mudguards and a rack, and even if they do similar, you still have to spend more to get mudguards and a rack. it’s just assumed everybody wants a 1x12 mtb for a stupid amount of money, that’s going to be used occasionally
I bought an e-scooter in Movember for $1600. 1200 watts power at 60 volts on a 40 AH battery. Has fenders, turn signals, lights, horn, very sophisticated alarm system, 3 year wattanty. And will go 56 KPH/35 MPH and maintain 24 KPH on a 20% grade with a 180 pound rider on throttle only. Speed limits in town here is 30 to 40 KP|H|, 40 to 60 KPH on highways. And unlike the US most drivers here are 10 to 15 KPH under the speed limit. I am adding a cargo trailer next week so can go camping with it anywhere in the country. I'm 75 and more recently decided to get help on the hills mostly 30 to 35% grades.
I worked in bike shops for years, though I haven’t worked in a shop for three years I’ve been closely watching the industry because I’m still emotionally invested. What I am seeing reminds me of the bike industry recession during the early 90s I’ve watched a lot of manufacturers have to make adjustments to the quantity of products they produce, as well as prices drifting upward. On a positive note, I believe social media has been a great resource for people to become interested in cycling, and I hope to see more young people become passionate in cycling. This will create a committed customer base for the future and I believe bike, shops and manufacturers should be supporting programs to get youth into cycling.
Thanks for the vid. Prices are absolutely crazy. I completely bailed on a new gravel/bikepacking bike from Salsa due to lack of availability and incredibly high prices. I ended up reconfiguring an old Trek hardtail mountain bike with a few new components (smaller tires, new pedals, etc..) and saved myself a ton of money.
Excellent points made here. I have seen the bicycle industry go through this in the past. I was working for Quality Bicycle Products (QBP) when the 2008 economic crisis happened. What is interesting is that companies often time panic, like they did at the beginning of Covid which you pointed out, and lay people off and plan on a drop in sales. What usually ends up happening is more people get on bikes because out of most of the hobbies out there, cycling is still affordable. Sure, the higher end stuff takes a hit, but in 2008 we saw a huge uptick in commuter bikes. I have also seen sports like BMX grow rapidly during harder economic times. Again, it's cheap entertainment compared to many other things. So the bicycle industry has to be careful and with Covid it's going to be very unpredictable with what direction things will take. We had Covid, now we have a pending recession. It will be interesting.
Nothing was fixed back in 2008/9 ... central banks kept rates low, which encouraged massive borrowing, and when money becomes cheap, everything else gets expensive ... it's all reflected in the huge distortions in the stock market and real estate market valuations. What goes up must come down ... looking at picking up a new/used road bike next year....but now is not the time. I see things falling apart sometime next year when it all starts unraveling ... banks are in trouble and inflation isn't going away. I can get another season out of my 9yr old road bike if it means saving thousands.
Totally agree, I am one a largest bike resellers in Wales UK and the market is dead ATM. In fact it is so dead I have taken a month off. I am hoping it picks up in the spring. Its been a sellers market for over 2 years, now its a buyers market.
Similar story here in Scandinavia. All the distributors are telling the same story - shops aren't ordering stock because consumers aren't buying it. 2022 shops were screaming for mechanics. Now they are letting them go and it's hard to find a new job.
Great video! Totally agree! I was going to sell 2 of my newish bikes to get 2 brand new bikes but I now realize I'm not going to be able to sell them for anywhere near what I thought. So I think I'll just sit tight and ride what I already have for another year.
Lots of people in the big cities bought a bicycle and tried to use it for commuting. Now they figure out the way to work it short enough for the bicycle, but it’s still not safe enough on a bicycle in the big city traffic. Depending on developments in things like bike lanes that may or may not be the end of the bike hype. If bicycling in the big cities become safer, bicycle sales will continue - if it stays dangerous, the bike commuting hype will be over soon.
Many cities are making advancements but it's too slow going imo. We need to ramp up the biking infra by orders of magnitude if we ever want to become the biking planet I know we could be.
The only surprising thing about this is that industry executives seem to not have predicted this obvious result somehow. I was saying in spring of ‘21 that in a year or two there would be loads of “used” bikes ridden 3x for sale cheap.
Business people tend to be optimistic about the future. With the huge rise in cycling when the pandemic hit, my guess is that, with all these new riders, we’d be entering a Golden Age of cycling. But the exact opposite happened. I know it’s hard to imagine our sport as anything less than exhilarating, I think a lot of newbies found it to be too demanding. And also, due to distracted driver and road rage, they felt themselves to be in danger much of the time.
@@johntechwriter I'm not so sure this is a particularly relevant factor (though I do not dismiss it). We are seeing similar downturns in a bike-friendly country like Denmark. What IS in short supply is quality everyday bikes on the second-hand market and quality e-bikes, which people are buying instead of a second car or a moped. But the high end enthusiast stuff is suffering hard. Glad I closed my own shop in 2019. Was kicking myself through 21 and 22 - but it would have been a hard comedown.
Well im a dual sport athlete i ride motocross and mtb the fact that my brand new dirtbike cost me less than my brand new Norco shore 2 during covid for example my 2022 honda crf250 out the door was $9500 cad my norco shore two after I bought it and put handle bars suspension springs and valving for my weight was $10500 cad is absolutely ridiculous the cost of mountain biking is out of control
I just picked up a 2021 Kona Process at a bike shop with a sticker price of $3,899 and paid $2,200 out the door. I’m sure there will be more pre-Covid, end of season bike deals coming. Bike companies need a reality check. We want better deals, especially those of us who have been riding far before COVID
Feels like bikes have basically peaked out. I haven’t seen any significant changes other than a crazy price increase since 2019. Bikes got like half a degree slacker here or half a degree steeper there. No reason for most of us to upgrade unless We get an awesome deal.
This is such an accurate analysis and it’s so good to hear people are catching on. The market is absurdly overpriced. I know the manufacturers were trying to stay afloat during the pandemic when the factories had to shut down but it’s insane to ask the prices they’re asking. I’m sympathetic to their plight but I’m a little pissed at their pricing strategies. A lot of companies are asking $3500 for a bike with bottom tier components. I won’t list the component name and groupset but the mfg’s are nuts to think serious riders would use bottom tier crap on a $3500 bike. At least give us Deore which works nicely! Until they come back down to earth with prices I’m not buying anything new, and I used to buy high end bikes every few years but now that’s just impossible.
It’s insane how much bikes have gone up over the years. If I were to try to buy a mt bike spec’d with the same quality of components my 2009 bike has I would be spending somewhere around 5-6k as compared to the $1,200 I spent back then.
Thank you thank you thank you! I am just about to buy my first bike(recumbant trike) in twenty years and didnt think I had wiggle room to negotiate a price. I do see lots of selections available.
With the recession as well, people won’t have the same disposable income to spend on ever increasing bike prices. I feel that 2023 will see a correction.
the insane inflation is still in play.......hopefully the people will choose the one who gave the people more money and not the one who caused these very problems
I had a teacher that called that the slinky effect. Your the second person I've heard y'all about this so I've been waiting to buy when/ if the prices come down. Thanks for sharing this with us.
I worked in cycle retail for 3 years and the prices are shockingly high. They have almost doubled for carbon and high high end bikes in general. Also components are also part of this price rise and they have to come together to address this or it may go bad for a lot of bigger companies.
Giant have requested a three-month interval of payments to suppliers. When a company does this, it is in deep trouble. And Giant is the largest bike manufacturer on the planet.
Even at 30% off you're still paying 1k to 10k+ for frames that are worth less than $100 dollars in raw materials from China. Even with labor you're looking at just a few hundred dollars and that goes for carbon fiber, and aluminum. With titanium you can tack on an extra 50 bucks.
Buddy of mine manages a bike shop and said they aren't selling anything, even with discounts! I really don't pay much attention, as I'm still rocking (and loving) my 2017 YT Jeffsy!
I wish I was seeing these price drops here in canada the prices are still super high used or new. The new COMMENCAL SUPREME DH V5 RIDE is $1300 more than the COMMENCAL SUPREME DH ESSENTIAL v4 with the exact same part spec only the frame being different as example.
I appreciate the content good sir. Fortunately for myself, I primarily ride 26'er bikes, and have numerous used parts I have collected over the years as the industry moved away from 3x8 setups and 26 inch wheels.
What are you on about? maybe it's because I'm a dirt jumper/street rider but basically everything 26 related to mtb is out of stock. Simple aluminium frames cost 500£ or are out of stock indefinitely. A 26 inch strong fork that has through axle and up to date geometry? No, have this coil Suntour that has 9mm axle inserts and is 30mm thick for 200£ or this Rockshox Pike DJ for 1000£.
@@leoaraujo8590 I think he means he has a load of stuff he wasn't able to get shut of when people went over to other wheel sizes and transmission types, so he doesn't have to worry about parts availability for quite some time as long as he keeps riding the old stuff. I'm in a similar position - so it's not nonsense.
Brill video ! That explains a thing or two thank you. I renovate old Raleigh’s for a hobby and used to sell them outside my front door fairly quickly and just break even after buying parts. Recently though nobody seems interested. George U.K.
Well said Josh! Pretty hot topic right now… Hope your video does well brother! Mine sure did…😉 I think we all need to be smart with our money in 2023. Support your local bike shops people! And don’t be afraid of doing a little work on a “New-to-you” bike this year!💪🏻
Thanks Ben! Your video made a lot of same points mine did and was part of my inspiration to speak up about things. The one area that I feel like isn't getting talked about as much in your video and others (and I'm going to be diving into much more in the next few months) is the used market. It's pretty insane to see how low prices are going
@@DailyMTBRider Agreed! I think I’ll be watching the used market carefully as well. I think many new-comers to the sport are weary about buying used and inheriting someone else’s problems… I feel it’s up to us “OGs” to show what to look for and how to do it carefully. Bikes can be a big investment for many and I love helping people join our awesome sport! Cheers!
What you are talking about maybe applies, as presented, in the USA. If you are in Europe like me, things look very different. Energy and fuel costs are so high over here at the moment, that ppl are actually selling cars to buy e-bikes. But to your point: yes and no. Prices will drop slightly at the beginning of the season, but they wont go anywhere after that. As a bike store owner myself, im seeing some price dropping on 2022 models but at the same time the price increase for 23 models are substantial. So no, if you want a bike do NOT wait for the prices to drop any further, cuz they wont. And its not like you are missing out on anything aswell because technology wise, the 23 models are for the most part identical to 22 models. Since new technology couldnt be produced in time for 2023, the models stayed roughly the same...
Maybe true in the US, but up here in Canada, prices haven't gone down much. In fact they even went up. The trend I see is that people over 40 wanna get into the e-bike market, so bike shops are stuck with their expensive models more & more. Easy to look it up, e-bike seller webpages are full of unavailable models, specially for the popular ones like the NCM Milano & Moscow as an example.
Bought a stumpjumper back in 2014. It's done everything I've asked of it riding around Alberta & Whistler. I have no reason to upgrade it. Brakes are still awesome. Shocks need a rebuild at this point but they still work lol. Then I built a hard tail 3 years ago from a Giant frame I got, through "wheeling and dealing" it's probably worth $3000 retail in parts, but I'm into it for $900.
its happening here in the Philippines too. Prices are going down (shops disguise them by giving "discounts"), pandemic bike shops are closing, too many people selling their bikes bought from the pandemic times.
I've been eyeballing various mtb brands for a few months now.... and all I see thus far is "sales" of a few hundred bucks here and there..... not what I would consider a sale. Like Canyon for example. They think they can drop their price on their "Outlet" bikes, the Spectral 29 CF 8 by a mere $150 and that'll get people jumping to buy it.
I think in the Midwest we are a month away from those prices coming down - but you’re spot on - this spring is a good time to buy a bike. I look forward to a follow-up report.
I just bought a (new, with warranty) Cannondale Moterra Neo 2 full-suss E-MTB for half of the $7K MSRP (which is apparently still OVER the shop's NET cost...hard to believe!) so I'd say "it" has begun.
Same! My wife and I pushing 60 and active, but not superhuman, so we’ve been saving for eMTB. Since we’re on a budget and looking for value, I especially appreciate this video, and will share with others. Thanks for all your helpful info!
They won't be dumping stock. The 2023 models will be old stock with new stickers. Any discount you will see is prices coming back to pre covid prices. Considering some of those bikes went up in price (not value) nearly 50%, a 40% discount still means you are paying 10% more than original sticker price.
Do you think the customer direct market - eg Canyon will not discount as they have only made limited stock? Any thoughts. Production methods - Just in Time (JUT) or Just in Case (JIC).
Prices have definitely come down on new bikes. Much more in stock at LBSs. Was insance for a couple years now seeming a little more normal. Wait till they sit on the shelves all summer!
This spring has been BAD here in Europe. Place I worked at till last month had a lot of inventory from 2022 that was just not moving. And I sold more bikes in a month out of my own little one-man shop in March 2018 (my worst year) than this place sold in March 2023. Repairs of old bikes pay the bills more than selling new bikes ATM.
Yeah. I tried to sell my current bike so I could buy a different bike. I had on the market for a while with a couple price drops and no sale. So I decided make a couple of upgrades and got some good deals from my LBS. The bike feels dialed and ready for springtime. Definitely going to keep it now
I wasn't paying attention to the market much when I bought a new Santa Cruz Bronson about two months ago. After a couple years of watching everything get sold out and having to travel hours to find what I wanted, I was -shocked- at the deal the shop offered me. They just kept discounting it. I just sold my old bike at my asking price, but it took a couple months. If you're in a hurry, be prepared to get less than you were hoping for.
I'm seeing all kinds of discounts on brand new bikes online, but the used market is pretty slow to adjust. I just got myself a new 2022 Turbo Levo Comp Alloy for $6500 on sale, and as I type this there are a bunch of them on pinkbike listed for the same price or even more.
Being a busted up old geezer with a bunch of traumatic injuries, I went electric 6 years' That market has fluctuated wildly in recent months. My 1st bike got $300 cheaper for a few month & then went up $200 more than I paid in a couple wks. Along comes black friday, & I bought the plus model my my bike 1/2 list price $1899 for $949, $100 cheaper than the cheapest price the 1st at $1099..didn't really need another but couldn't pass on that price. I love 'em both, but this gave me a chance to rebuild the rear wheel on the first one. The moral is be a frugal shopper & hunt for the best possible deal.
Thanks for the video man. In the Toronto area I am seeing prices drop BUT, there still seems to be some bike shortages in LBS on certain brands e.g. Kona, Surly.
Josh, you're not going to like my take on what is killing the bike industry. The only thing I agree with you 100% is the used bike market. Here we go, like in Paintball. The bike industry has slowly been killing itself internally by following the mobile phone marketing strategy. Rather than sticking to past manufacturing trends of having a model line unchanged for 4 to 6 years other than colour ways and components, meaning frames and geo stayed the same. Every manufacturer that makes frames and components has been pushing to create solutions for problems that do not exist for the everyday rider. The push for high-end carbon, hidden shocks, wireless drivetrain, boost, super boost, on and on and on again. Simple put the manufacturers would like you to buy a new bike every year to two to three like the phone makers. In my opinion, the last glory days of MTB bikes was 2014 to 2016. Where you can buy a hell of a metal based frame or a very decent carbon bike for under 5 grand US. Now metal framed bikes are approaching 5 grand and carbon bikes approxhing 12 grand US. Simply put, the bike manufacturers ignored economic trends while pushing for record profits due to greed, not real meaningful and useful tech evolution. People have been forced to deal with a recession not caused by the pandemic but pushed by it closer to a new economic depression. The real recession started in 2007 and 2008 when US housing market and auto manufacturers where failing. Instead of the government letting the recession hit, they over printed money to buy time, they have been doing that since, with the pandemic multiplying it to boarder catastrophic levels. The next 5 to 6 years are going to be very bleak economically speaking. From rising food pricing, heating, gas, electricity, and I could go on. No one in their right mind is going to be purchasing these overpriced and blinged out pleasure items currently and in the years to come. This is the real reason why bikes are sitting in warehouses. Not because the manufacturers over ordered or over saturated the supply chain. They overpriced themselves to sit on these bikes. The industry needs to go back to bikes under the 5 grand bike model. Just my opinion.
Really good thoughts Peter! One other point I'd make is bike innovation has started to plateau.... which means if folks are smart and don't buy into the marketing, then their bike will still be 90% relevant for years to come. Thanks for sharing with us all!
I wholeheartedly agree. The bike manufacturers have increased prices way beyond the rate of inflation since about 2015 in general and really got greedy during the pandemic. They thought they could charge almost any price they want and sell their bikes. For awhile that was true. Now the pendulum is starting to swing the other direction. Overall the economy is taking a huge nosedive and the bike industry is going with it.
@Mike yup, it seems like every leasure item manufacturer has taken the Apple and Sumsung approach. Bullshit, needless marginal improvements yearly so they can sucker us into buying new leasure items more frequently, because they try make it look like your 1 or 2 year old item is crap and usless now because of the new and vastly improved.
I’ve seen some of the deals you’re talking about at some of our shops in Bellingham. How are they selling AXS groups for $40 over cost? Wild. Speaks to the volume available.
You think the bike market is saturated, just look at the soil! Poor Santa Cruz! Poor Soquel Demo!!!! The California mountains are gonna slide into the ocean!!! Sorry, couldn't resist. Just kidding, kinda. Things are really, really wet. But we've seen it before in '82/'83, and other really wet years.
Yeah, experiencing this first hand. I bought a used bike in November and now I can’t get rid of the old one. Especially with terrible weather for the last two months, no one is buying bikes. Going to be selling at a loss
I agree. At my local shop, there was a Scott 950 genius that was built in June just sitting there for months. They had two of them. Finally marked it down to 2k, sat there another month, and finally someone finally bought them. Probably for Christmas. I would have at that price, but I bought another bike shortly before I saw that. 1k off a bike that's 3k retail is insane.
Yeah as someone who works in a big franchise bike store it's definitely baking off. Still good summer numbers here in aus but we got a huge overstock of full suspension bikes from not having any 12 months ago. Crazy prices and yeah we need to shift them now so get rid of them
I go out of my way to buy brands that have reasonable options. Picked up an Ibis Ripmo af slx for $3300 in November. I’m sick of the average cost of a new bike being 5-6k for a decent model. It’s been out of hand for awhile imo. I think you’re spot on. There will be some great deals to be had in the next year!
I took the last 10 bikes my local shop featured on Instagram and and averaged them and it was $5,590 I was looking for a gravel bike I've decided to just convert an old 90's mtb I had in my shed.
I went with a slightly used road bike. Carbon frame, 105 groupset for 900. Last year, a new bike with these specs were usually 3000 (if you could even find it in your size!)
Really want to get a new bike and would love to trade in or sell two of my bikes in order to make this happen, but the reality is that I’ll probably just end up keeping the current bikes because the prices are so high…
Nothing’s gonna change… we’ve been hearing us about cars, trucks, rent , houses & and so on…. We live in a different world now. Inflation isn’t going away….. if you see a bike that you like just buy it…
The points you made in this video could possibly be the reason I was able to get forks really cheap. So for the longest time Manitou Circus Comp forks were about £300. In December I was able to get a brand new set from ChainReactionCycles for £140 now they’ve increased the price to £180. I got them in black, they also have a white option but that stayed at £280 now they’ve both settled at £180
Price drop... big time. Battery tech is still five years away. There is zero point to purchase an electric bike that is not self-generating. You should only have to plug it on once a week- and it should charge as you pedal. A lot of these electric bikes are a 'scam', it's extortion. I live in Silicon Valley and the amount of bank these clowns drop on their bike is enough to sicken you. It boggles my mind how people 'live to get ripped off'. It's called a PUSH-BIKE for a reason. It's the car-culture selfish mindset bleeding in on the bike biz. This whole throttle thing. It's maddening to me.
I sold 2 bikes at peak crazy and bought a new Insurgent from Bellingham local company Evil at MSRP. Right before Evil bumped their prices up for the exact same bike. Feel like I timed that one really well and now I'm gonna be in the market for a new XC bike, again with perfect timing! I also have seen supply shoot up and demand go down. The delusional asking prices on pinkbike have already started to fall and the bottom has yet to come!
@@locophoto6881 When the parts are the same price, it doesn't matter. You're not saving any money doing it online, and if you are then typically you're getting parts of a subpar quality.
@@alexflosho That is so completely not true....parts online are often much cheaper for the exact same part, and often times the shipping is free. Even still...what's wrong with supporting an online business owner....a local business owner is the same....a stranger to you that is a human being that is trying to build a business but perhaps chose more wisely to not lock themselves to a brick and mortar business model.
I work at my local bike shop, and we have a huge amount of marlins that we need to sell. But no one is coming in for bikes so now we have 50k of bikes just loosin value
SRAM temporary halted MAP (min advertised price) during the 22 Holiday Season so it gave retailers freedom to deeply discount SRAM products. But SRAM turned back on MAP effective Jan 1st. Do you feel SRAM will revisit their MAP policy? Or keep it active so the smaller LBS can be competitive with the larger retailers? Product the shops versus maintaining revenues - tough call
@@MTBr-of-SoCal the SRAM deals were pretty amazing. Bought up a complete GX AXS kit for $280. Carbon cranks for $150, X01 cassettes for $240, Code brakes for $130, etc. Glad the MAP is back, it was draining my wallet.
@@basedpatriotLT MAP only enforced in the US and Canada. It’s why you see a lot of US buyers sourcing SRAM parts from the EU, even after shipping its cheaper.
Looking back at 2014 when I was in college with a fixie club and 2019 when I was finally able to buy my first MTB, I think it's like a 5-years repeating pattern. This trend has its own peak and low season. At the end of this, we need to keep pedaling to keep this industry balance.
Another factor to consider is many people including myself are deciding to switch to e bike's as I just purchased the new Lectric 3.0 and am able to go on twenty and thirty mile rides now and actually enjoy it. Hills are no longer obstacles ...
Just ordered a frame/fork at a 40% discount, from a smaller "boutique" frame builder. Going to build a stupidly ridiculous "gravel bike" that will be my bike packing/road riding/daily driver. I'm a big guy so this will be the first bike that ever fits me properly. I'm pumped.
I think so too that some companies had so much unsold stock that they were just giving them away near the end of this year. Diamondback had their top of the line aluminum HT, the syncr, on sale at HALF OFF during cyberweek 2022. Took advantage of it and got myself a great bike for a deal of the century!
Prices just went up too much in the past couple years. A high-end frame was 3000 full msrp in 2018. Now 4k to 5k. Tier1 bike use to be 8500 now $12,900. Too greedy too fast
I was just lucky enough to sell my 2017 Santa Cruz Hightower CC(XTR-11s) and apply the $2500 proceeds towards a 2021 Trek Rail 9.8 GX for the inventory blowout price of $7400. You’re absolutely right, deals can be had right now, just before Spring hits.
yep have seen this recently. I was not looking for a new bike at the time, but I lucked into a 2023 Domane SLR 7 eTap AXS for a stupid low price and then turn around and sold my 2021 Domane SLR 7 for what I thought was a low price, but I did not want to hang on to it over a little bit more money when I knew I had a buyer with cash in hand, so I took the deal. It was a win win for everyone. I know some people that are holding out for what they think is a fair price for their bikes, but don't have the buyers. Some were even critical of me for the price I got for my bike, but I just point to the empty spot I have on my wall where that bike hung, and just smile and say, have you sold yours yet? There was a song the gambler, know when to hold them, know when to fold them.
I don’t stock any bikes in my store over $4000. Carrying that kind of real estate would bankrupt me. Anything over the $4000 mark is all special order if they have it in stock if they don’t I couldn’t careless if they go somewhere else to buy it
This worked our well for me as a buyer , i had to buy 2 bikes one for my wife i picked up a few year old Townie Electra 7D for $150just needed a new shift cable , and a 2020 Norco Indie 2 XS for $320 CND was mint ridden maybe twice . Im on the lookout now for a BMX for myself .
A very interesting and informative article. We are as usual, the victims of supply and demand and market forces. In the UK even so called budget but quality cycles from leading manufacturers are overpriced (but offset in some cases by Ride to Work schemes and cheap finance deals) and there is also considerable depreciation to contend with affecting the cost to change after a year or so. Manufacturers are getting away with lower end components particularly with fashionable and in demand gravel and e bikes but are charging premium prices for these. They no longer represent good value. As with any consumer item, there will always be a market for the very high end equipment so this is affected less. Ultimately, the consumer decides and with diminishing disposable incomes, the industry must get real or face further loss and discounting in order to produce a profit through volume sales. Just look at the car industry. Sales of EVs are up but that bubble will soon burst as overpricing, running costs and manufacture greed hit home.
I like these so-called summer sales...in bikes...seen plenty around, something rarely ever happened :))) but still...as you said...WAIT!! Prices will drop even more towards the end of the summer
The thing is the bike companies already have. Factories do not manufacture without an order. The surplus of bikes and parts is real, prices have already started to drop and are going to continue to drop within the next few months
Yes they will… shops wont keep last years models on the floor when they have next years models coming and they will still order next years model so they don’t get caught short handed without enough bikes to meet whatever demand. Josh is right, more shops are offering percentage discounts than ever before.
I think they will drop their prices to move them, as if they dont get new orders in that manufacturing infastructure and labour force stands idle or costs money or dwindles. So they are better off running at low margin or cost to ride out the low point of the oversupplied market. And they have likely made higher margins over the last couple of years to sustain a bit of a hit.
In Australia if you want to buy the higher end bikes there's a 14 month wait. Same with cars. It's different here. But the newer models have gone up through the roof.
Yeh Vitus did the same. I bought my Vitus Mythique VRX in 2020/2021. Cost me 1600. Just missed the sale where it was going for 1480. Recently checked the latest 2022/23 model. It's 1800 and lower specced. Shocking. Glad I got mine when I did.
I bought a $20. Garage sale special and rebuilt and replaced worn out parts. I added lights, mirror rear view camera front and rear carriers with fanny packs as tool and first aid gear. I have the best bike ever for about $300. And I ride it every weekend and some evenings.
After a lot of initial comments, I'm for sure going to make a follow up video on why new bike prices HAVE to drop and soon. I don't think people realize how terrible the used bike market is and how much that'll affect new bike sales. Stay tuned my friends!
Should i wait for the used market to come down for my daughter ?
Here in quebec province, canada it’s full of overpriced unused bike that you can get at the shop brand new almost at the same price or used bike that people overpaid during covid and just want to get their money back!
The used market here is really pathetic and people don’t want to negociate at all. Almost every bike is sitting there for about 4-5 month or more. I hate them seriously
This is also Bad for Innovation, because the manifatures are Not bringend out new Stuff in they have to get ride of the old Stuff.
The market is saturated. I've been thinking about this with the skyrocketing prices and the popularity of mountain biking it takes me back when I played paintball and spent loads of money on all the different paintball guns like smartparts, dye, planet eclipse, angel. Even the promotion of clothing and customization for your paintball guns got out of hand then off-brand started popping-up at a discount and then it just slowly lost market share with a wide following of people flocking to new and different hobbies. I'm just saying they're racing to the bottom and only big money and smart heads will come out of this.
I think bike sales will go up as the economy gets worse. Less people won't be able to afford to drive.
@@flynnstone3580 sure that kind of people buy a 4k Mtb:D
Biggest mistake all companies make is thinking crazy spikes will last.
like really!
Peloton.
So true, it's why Shimano stuff was hard to get they knew this wasn't going to last so they didnt just put in new productionlines.
@@KoenMiseur i believe Shimano only expand work hour not production capacity.
Since they're one of the oldest cycling company. they know the shit happened now and then
Well, when there's a demand, you try to supply it. That's how the market works.
Serves them right for nearly doubling the prices .
Great summary. Another big problem the bike brands are facing is that many of them jacked up the prices of their new models significantly, while lowering the spec/builds quite significantly. So, this means a barely used 20/21/22 model is so much cheaper and better value than the new models - even if the shop/brand discounts the new model by 15-20%.
I saw Specialized do this with several of their bikes - they jacked up the price by 20% but downgraded to junk wheels, a bottom spec drivetrain etc. Buy a pre-2023 bike on the used market (where prices are tanking) and you will get a better bike for a lot less money.
OMG so true! Commencal is guilty of this. Before, their base models use to at least run NX groupset. Now they run SX and with other comps lower specs.... all while jacking up the price! I gave up on them and went with a YT since I got better specs for around same price point I was looking at.
I bought a 2021 SWorks Stumpjumper Evo for $5,600! Full xx1axs and carbon wheelset. Code RSC Brakes and axs dropper. CRAZY times!
@@mutleyadamsracing2684 meanwhile I bought a 2023 model Stump Jumper Evo Comp for $5,800. 😩
Hope they lose out now its there own faults, folks are crazy to even pay for the price increase! Buy used way better, some people buy fancy bikes and dont even use them, thats who i buy from!! Dont let the bike game become a rich mans sport - riding is for everyone
Whew, good to hear, just got a 2021 rockhopper expert on sale last week locally!
Well it’s about time! Need some humbling! Crazy when a motocross bike is cheaper or same price and bicycle prices went out of sight years ago.
Motocross bikes did NOT go down or stay the same. They didn’t go up as much as bicycles relative to 5 years ago but 5 years ago motocross brands were flirting with $9,999. Now those same models are at $13000. And used bike prices are ridiculously high, almost 50% higher relative to condition and year than they were pre-covid.
I have 3 bike shops within walking distance from me and all 3 are awful. The workers are super rude to anyone thats not dropping top dollar in the shop. Even on the telephone they snap at you. Seriously all 3. I look forward to them shutting down.
I build/rebuild bikes as a hobby. Needless to say, during Covid, I moved close to 150 bikes locally. They basically sold themselves. The magic ended mid 2022. I got lucky and dumped all my bikes, parts, inventory etc... I just focus on my personal bikes now... the market is so saturated and overpriced I would ride what you have and play the waiting game till prices tank further.
Three months later, how do you feel things have settled out? I've been seeing plenty of spring sales, but it's hard to gauge if this _is_ the point where the prices tank or if that's still coming, plenty of popular models that are still seeming to stay at relatively high prices (at least on the budget end of the spectrum).
Good advice
I've been thinking about this recently. This isn't affecting only the bike industry. A lot of companies in the outdoor gear industry are going to experience this. Hell, it might even happen to vehicles as well. This is well said Josh. Thanks for sharing.
This is absolutely happening in the auto industry too. Used prices are dropping, and new vehicles aren't moving due to sky high interest rates and big price jumps from big auto (and layoffs, rising rents, rising utility costs etc... and people can't easily sell the car they already own, or are getting lowball trade offers these days). Pretty much everything is going on sale this year. Buckle up.
@@Monkeyseemonkey79 except some of the high-end stuff. Porsche is still getting ADMs on their 911's. Long waits and limited production are still the norm here.
@@Monkeyseemonkey79 Can't wait to bet my Bronco Raptor for less than MSRP.
@@dudeonbike800 the 1% usually withstand economic downturns pretty well, but I think even Porsche will take a hit in the coming months. Lots of cancelled orders as tech bros get laid off, and the crypto money has evaporated etc.
@@Monkeyseemonkey79 spot on. I read recently that the average car payment in the US is $700. That’s insane. With rates creeping up that will probably go up or they will extend the loan periods out 12-24 months so more people can “afford” to buy a car.
I think a big problem with the bike industry is they don’t really think bikes are transport, there’s very few makers making something like a 3x8/9 rigid commuting bike with mudguards and a rack, and even if they do similar, you still have to spend more to get mudguards and a rack.
it’s just assumed everybody wants a 1x12 mtb for a stupid amount of money, that’s going to be used occasionally
I bought an e-scooter in Movember for $1600. 1200 watts power at 60 volts on a 40 AH battery. Has fenders, turn signals, lights, horn, very sophisticated alarm system, 3 year wattanty. And will go 56 KPH/35 MPH and maintain 24 KPH on a 20% grade with a 180 pound rider on throttle only. Speed limits in town here is 30 to 40 KP|H|, 40 to 60 KPH on highways. And unlike the US most drivers here are 10 to 15 KPH under the speed limit. I am adding a cargo trailer next week so can go camping with it anywhere in the country. I'm 75 and more recently decided to get help on the hills mostly 30 to 35% grades.
They then would have to take on the car industry, which most traditional bike manufacturers don't want to do
I worked in bike shops for years, though I haven’t worked in a shop for three years I’ve been closely watching the industry because I’m still emotionally invested. What I am seeing reminds me of the bike industry recession during the early 90s I’ve watched a lot of manufacturers have to make adjustments to the quantity of products they produce, as well as prices drifting upward. On a positive note, I believe social media has been a great resource for people to become interested in cycling, and I hope to see more young people become passionate in cycling. This will create a committed customer base for the future and I believe bike, shops and manufacturers should be supporting programs to get youth into cycling.
They have overcharged for years.
Right. I'm almost ready to give up on bicycles because motorcycles are cheaper
@@jonathonsilbaugh2833 Yeah but not to own.
I think it’s espescially e-bikes that are overpriced. A Bosch motor and battery should only add 2 grand not 4.
@@jonathonsilbaugh2833 It’s wild how the tech in motorcycles, from the engine to suspension, costs less than a 19lb bicycle.
@@Here2shtpst what motorcycle costs less than a bicycle?
Thanks for the vid. Prices are absolutely crazy. I completely bailed on a new gravel/bikepacking bike from Salsa due to lack of availability and incredibly high prices. I ended up reconfiguring an old Trek hardtail mountain bike with a few new components (smaller tires, new pedals, etc..) and saved myself a ton of money.
Excellent points made here. I have seen the bicycle industry go through this in the past. I was working for Quality Bicycle Products (QBP) when the 2008 economic crisis happened. What is interesting is that companies often time panic, like they did at the beginning of Covid which you pointed out, and lay people off and plan on a drop in sales. What usually ends up happening is more people get on bikes because out of most of the hobbies out there, cycling is still affordable. Sure, the higher end stuff takes a hit, but in 2008 we saw a huge uptick in commuter bikes. I have also seen sports like BMX grow rapidly during harder economic times. Again, it's cheap entertainment compared to many other things.
So the bicycle industry has to be careful and with Covid it's going to be very unpredictable with what direction things will take. We had Covid, now we have a pending recession. It will be interesting.
I hope so...
@@santafemikez9694 Thanks for some much needed optimism!
Pending Depression!
Nothing was fixed back in 2008/9 ... central banks kept rates low, which encouraged massive borrowing, and when money becomes cheap, everything else gets expensive ... it's all reflected in the huge distortions in the stock market and real estate market valuations. What goes up must come down ... looking at picking up a new/used road bike next year....but now is not the time. I see things falling apart sometime next year when it all starts unraveling ... banks are in trouble and inflation isn't going away. I can get another season out of my 9yr old road bike if it means saving thousands.
Totally agree, I am one a largest bike resellers in Wales UK and the market is dead ATM. In fact it is so dead I have taken a month off. I am hoping it picks up in the spring. Its been a sellers market for over 2 years, now its a buyers market.
Similar story here in Scandinavia. All the distributors are telling the same story - shops aren't ordering stock because consumers aren't buying it. 2022 shops were screaming for mechanics. Now they are letting them go and it's hard to find a new job.
Great video! Totally agree! I was going to sell 2 of my newish bikes to get 2 brand new bikes but I now realize I'm not going to be able to sell them for anywhere near what I thought. So I think I'll just sit tight and ride what I already have for another year.
Lots of people in the big cities bought a bicycle and tried to use it for commuting. Now they figure out the way to work it short enough for the bicycle, but it’s still not safe enough on a bicycle in the big city traffic. Depending on developments in things like bike lanes that may or may not be the end of the bike hype. If bicycling in the big cities become safer, bicycle sales will continue - if it stays dangerous, the bike commuting hype will be over soon.
Many cities are making advancements but it's too slow going imo. We need to ramp up the biking infra by orders of magnitude if we ever want to become the biking planet I know we could be.
The only surprising thing about this is that industry executives seem to not have predicted this obvious result somehow. I was saying in spring of ‘21 that in a year or two there would be loads of “used” bikes ridden 3x for sale cheap.
Business people tend to be optimistic about the future. With the huge rise in cycling when the pandemic hit, my guess is that, with all these new riders, we’d be entering a Golden Age of cycling. But the exact opposite happened. I know it’s hard to imagine our sport as anything less than exhilarating, I think a lot of newbies found it to be too demanding. And also, due to distracted driver and road rage, they felt themselves to be in danger much of the time.
Most business executives are utter idiots.
@@johntechwriter I'm not so sure this is a particularly relevant factor (though I do not dismiss it). We are seeing similar downturns in a bike-friendly country like Denmark. What IS in short supply is quality everyday bikes on the second-hand market and quality e-bikes, which people are buying instead of a second car or a moped. But the high end enthusiast stuff is suffering hard.
Glad I closed my own shop in 2019. Was kicking myself through 21 and 22 - but it would have been a hard comedown.
Well im a dual sport athlete i ride motocross and mtb the fact that my brand new dirtbike cost me less than my brand new Norco shore 2 during covid for example my 2022 honda crf250 out the door was $9500 cad my norco shore two after I bought it and put handle bars suspension springs and valving for my weight was $10500 cad is absolutely ridiculous the cost of mountain biking is out of control
I just picked up a 2021 Kona Process at a bike shop with a sticker price of $3,899 and paid $2,200 out the door. I’m sure there will be more pre-Covid, end of season bike deals coming. Bike companies need a reality check. We want better deals, especially those of us who have been riding far before COVID
Feels like bikes have basically peaked out. I haven’t seen any significant changes other than a crazy price increase since 2019. Bikes got like half a degree slacker here or half a degree steeper there. No reason for most of us to upgrade unless We get an awesome deal.
This is such an accurate analysis and it’s so good to hear people are catching on. The market is absurdly overpriced. I know the manufacturers were trying to stay afloat during the pandemic when the factories had to shut down but it’s insane to ask the prices they’re asking. I’m sympathetic to their plight but I’m a little pissed at their pricing strategies. A lot of companies are asking $3500 for a bike with bottom tier components. I won’t list the component name and groupset but the mfg’s are nuts to think serious riders would use bottom tier crap on a $3500 bike. At least give us Deore which works nicely! Until they come back down to earth with prices I’m not buying anything new, and I used to buy high end bikes every few years but now that’s just impossible.
It’s insane how much bikes have gone up over the years. If I were to try to buy a mt bike spec’d with the same quality of components my 2009 bike has I would be spending somewhere around 5-6k as compared to the $1,200 I spent back then.
They are competing with KTM now 😂
I think it would be cool if you provided a regular quarterly bike industry report similar to this video. Good stuff. Thank you!
I second the motion. tHanks for the video
great idea!
Thank you thank you thank you! I am just about to buy my first bike(recumbant trike) in twenty years and didnt think I had wiggle room to negotiate a price. I do see lots of selections available.
With the recession as well, people won’t have the same disposable income to spend on ever increasing bike prices. I feel that 2023 will see a correction.
the insane inflation is still in play.......hopefully the people will choose the one who gave the people more money and not the one who caused these very problems
I had a teacher that called that the slinky effect. Your the second person I've heard y'all about this so I've been waiting to buy when/ if the prices come down. Thanks for sharing this with us.
I worked in cycle retail for 3 years and the prices are shockingly high. They have almost doubled for carbon and high high end bikes in general. Also components are also part of this price rise and they have to come together to address this or it may go bad for a lot of bigger companies.
So you're saying a bike at the price of a used car isn't reasonable?!
lol
Totally agree
Giant have requested a three-month interval of payments to suppliers. When a company does this, it is in deep trouble. And Giant is the largest bike manufacturer on the planet.
Yes that’s true, prices of bike parts have gone up
Prices are insane, doubled almost.
Even at 30% off you're still paying 1k to 10k+ for frames that are worth less than $100 dollars in raw materials from China. Even with labor you're looking at just a few hundred dollars and that goes for carbon fiber, and aluminum. With titanium you can tack on an extra 50 bucks.
Always good to see a new DMTBR video out! Funny, your picture of the empty bike shop only had road bikes left! 😂
Good eye my friend! That's the only bikes not worth buying
Buddy of mine manages a bike shop and said they aren't selling anything, even with discounts! I really don't pay much attention, as I'm still rocking (and loving) my 2017 YT Jeffsy!
Bikes are too much expensive , now alloy DH bikes are selling for 10k wtf?
I wish I was seeing these price drops here in canada the prices are still super high used or new. The new COMMENCAL SUPREME DH V5 RIDE is $1300 more than the COMMENCAL SUPREME DH ESSENTIAL v4 with the exact same part spec only the frame being different as example.
Great summary! I couldn't sell my near new Revel Rail ($8,200 build + $350 extras) for $4,300 and I had it listed for months!
I appreciate the content good sir. Fortunately for myself, I primarily ride 26'er bikes, and have numerous used parts I have collected over the years as the industry moved away from 3x8 setups and 26 inch wheels.
I still have my 26'er 2014 Scott Genius LT 40 and ride it every season :)
@@IIISentorIII that is great! 26" wheels are still plenty good!
What are you on about? maybe it's because I'm a dirt jumper/street rider but basically everything 26 related to mtb is out of stock. Simple aluminium frames cost 500£ or are out of stock indefinitely. A 26 inch strong fork that has through axle and up to date geometry? No, have this coil Suntour that has 9mm axle inserts and is 30mm thick for 200£ or this Rockshox Pike DJ for 1000£.
@@leoaraujo8590 I think he means he has a load of stuff he wasn't able to get shut of when people went over to other wheel sizes and transmission types, so he doesn't have to worry about parts availability for quite some time as long as he keeps riding the old stuff. I'm in a similar position - so it's not nonsense.
Brill video ! That explains a thing or two thank you. I renovate old Raleigh’s for a hobby and used to sell them outside my front door fairly quickly and just break even after buying parts. Recently though nobody seems interested. George U.K.
Got 25% percent off Specialized Levo SL in Denver. Still $6300 but nice to see the tables turn a bit.
I found a deal at my LBS for $1000 off of a set of new carbon wheels last week. They were finally affordable again!
You're correct. About 2 weeks ago I picked up a 3 month old giant stance e+ 1 for 3k. That's a 5k bike for almost half off.
Great news that the mountain bike market is stocked up and has a full inventory.
Well said Josh! Pretty hot topic right now… Hope your video does well brother! Mine sure did…😉 I think we all need to be smart with our money in 2023. Support your local bike shops people! And don’t be afraid of doing a little work on a “New-to-you” bike this year!💪🏻
Thanks Ben! Your video made a lot of same points mine did and was part of my inspiration to speak up about things. The one area that I feel like isn't getting talked about as much in your video and others (and I'm going to be diving into much more in the next few months) is the used market. It's pretty insane to see how low prices are going
@@DailyMTBRider Agreed! I think I’ll be watching the used market carefully as well. I think many new-comers to the sport are weary about buying used and inheriting someone else’s problems… I feel it’s up to us “OGs” to show what to look for and how to do it carefully. Bikes can be a big investment for many and I love helping people join our awesome sport! Cheers!
Many great points!
Thanks guys.
Wow! Video’s doing great! Nice work bro! Took me 2 weeks to get over 100k views… you did it in 2 days😂.
Just bought my first mtb for a steal. New 2022 Liv Tempt 1 (Giant) was $980, paid $600. I passed on not 1 but 2 like new Roscoe 6 for $650 each.
What you are talking about maybe applies, as presented, in the USA. If you are in Europe like me, things look very different. Energy and fuel costs are so high over here at the moment, that ppl are actually selling cars to buy e-bikes. But to your point: yes and no. Prices will drop slightly at the beginning of the season, but they wont go anywhere after that. As a bike store owner myself, im seeing some price dropping on 2022 models but at the same time the price increase for 23 models are substantial. So no, if you want a bike do NOT wait for the prices to drop any further, cuz they wont. And its not like you are missing out on anything aswell because technology wise, the 23 models are for the most part identical to 22 models. Since new technology couldnt be produced in time for 2023, the models stayed roughly the same...
Maybe true in the US, but up here in Canada, prices haven't gone down much. In fact they even went up. The trend I see is that people over 40 wanna get into the e-bike market, so bike shops are stuck with their expensive models more & more. Easy to look it up, e-bike seller webpages are full of unavailable models, specially for the popular ones like the NCM Milano & Moscow as an example.
Indeed. Boomers are the only people with any money to buy stuff these days.
Bought a stumpjumper back in 2014. It's done everything I've asked of it riding around Alberta & Whistler. I have no reason to upgrade it. Brakes are still awesome. Shocks need a rebuild at this point but they still work lol.
Then I built a hard tail 3 years ago from a Giant frame I got, through "wheeling and dealing" it's probably worth $3000 retail in parts, but I'm into it for $900.
The bike I bought in 2018 for $2100 now costs $4500. No significant changes.
What bike?
its happening here in the Philippines too. Prices are going down (shops disguise them by giving "discounts"), pandemic bike shops are closing, too many people selling their bikes bought from the pandemic times.
It's the same here in Germany.
I've been eyeballing various mtb brands for a few months now.... and all I see thus far is "sales" of a few hundred bucks here and there..... not what I would consider a sale. Like Canyon for example. They think they can drop their price on their "Outlet" bikes, the Spectral 29 CF 8 by a mere $150 and that'll get people jumping to buy it.
Just picked up a Nukeproof for my son with 45% discount. Never thought that would happen again over the last couple of years.
Also maybe support smaller brands you love. Just purchased a Cotic hardtail frame.
I think in the Midwest we are a month away from those prices coming down - but you’re spot on - this spring is a good time to buy a bike. I look forward to a follow-up report.
I just bought a (new, with warranty) Cannondale Moterra Neo 2 full-suss E-MTB for half of the $7K MSRP (which is apparently still OVER the shop's NET cost...hard to believe!) so I'd say "it" has begun.
I find it hard to believe that they make 3500 profit on a bike. If so that’s crazy
@@Montezuma0that would be crazy. I worked as a mechanic from 1985 to 2021 . The margins were slim up to 2020..but still nothing like that.
So glad I came across this video today. Really useful tips as I m thinking of buying a brand new but my preferred models are a way out of my budget
Same! My wife and I pushing 60 and active, but not superhuman, so we’ve been saving for eMTB. Since we’re on a budget and looking for value, I especially appreciate this video, and will share with others. Thanks for all your helpful info!
They won't be dumping stock. The 2023 models will be old stock with new stickers.
Any discount you will see is prices coming back to pre covid prices. Considering some of those bikes went up in price (not value) nearly 50%, a 40% discount still means you are paying 10% more than original sticker price.
Bad math bro. A 40% discount on a bike inflated 50% means you are getting it at 90% of the old price. $150 minus 40% is 150 x .6 = 90.
@@mikebronicki8264 I got a decimal point in the wrong place on an invoice to a supplier earlier, I think i should lay off maths today...
@@martynwatson4929 Better brush up on your math Marty!😁
Yep. Let them burn. Love seeing bike shops go out of business and those companies fail. It sends the message. Price gouging has consequences
Yes, people think they are getting deals while prices are only dropping to less insane
Do you think the customer direct market - eg Canyon will not discount as they have only made limited stock? Any thoughts. Production methods - Just in Time (JUT) or Just in Case (JIC).
This is the story for all things retail. Covid money is gone. Now people are living the real economy not the one we created by printing money.
Prices have definitely come down on new bikes. Much more in stock at LBSs. Was insance for a couple years now seeming a little more normal. Wait till they sit on the shelves all summer!
I don’t think prices on new bikes are going to drop until the fall. Spring is when demand goes back up which should keep prices pretty steady.
Agree the rcession is coming and companies are trying to eyegouge as much as posible because they know what is coming
This spring has been BAD here in Europe. Place I worked at till last month had a lot of inventory from 2022 that was just not moving. And I sold more bikes in a month out of my own little one-man shop in March 2018 (my worst year) than this place sold in March 2023. Repairs of old bikes pay the bills more than selling new bikes ATM.
Yeah. I tried to sell my current bike so I could buy a different bike. I had on the market for a while with a couple price drops and no sale. So I decided make a couple of upgrades and got some good deals from my LBS. The bike feels dialed and ready for springtime. Definitely going to keep it now
I wasn't paying attention to the market much when I bought a new Santa Cruz Bronson about two months ago. After a couple years of watching everything get sold out and having to travel hours to find what I wanted, I was -shocked- at the deal the shop offered me. They just kept discounting it.
I just sold my old bike at my asking price, but it took a couple months. If you're in a hurry, be prepared to get less than you were hoping for.
I'm seeing all kinds of discounts on brand new bikes online, but the used market is pretty slow to adjust. I just got myself a new 2022 Turbo Levo Comp Alloy for $6500 on sale, and as I type this there are a bunch of them on pinkbike listed for the same price or even more.
Being a busted up old geezer with a bunch of traumatic injuries, I went electric 6 years'
That market has fluctuated wildly in recent months. My 1st bike got $300 cheaper for
a few month & then went up $200 more than I paid in a couple wks. Along comes black friday,
& I bought the plus model my my bike 1/2 list price $1899 for $949, $100 cheaper than
the cheapest price the 1st at $1099..didn't really need another but couldn't pass on that
price. I love 'em both, but this gave me a chance to rebuild the rear wheel on the first one.
The moral is be a frugal shopper & hunt for the best possible deal.
Thanks for the video man. In the Toronto area I am seeing prices drop BUT, there still seems to be some bike shortages in LBS on certain brands e.g. Kona, Surly.
Josh, you're not going to like my take on what is killing the bike industry. The only thing I agree with you 100% is the used bike market.
Here we go, like in Paintball. The bike industry has slowly been killing itself internally by following the mobile phone marketing strategy. Rather than sticking to past manufacturing trends of having a model line unchanged for 4 to 6 years other than colour ways and components, meaning frames and geo stayed the same. Every manufacturer that makes frames and components has been pushing to create solutions for problems that do not exist for the everyday rider. The push for high-end carbon, hidden shocks, wireless drivetrain, boost, super boost, on and on and on again. Simple put the manufacturers would like you to buy a new bike every year to two to three like the phone makers.
In my opinion, the last glory days of MTB bikes was 2014 to 2016. Where you can buy a hell of a metal based frame or a very decent carbon bike for under 5 grand US. Now metal framed bikes are approaching 5 grand and carbon bikes approxhing 12 grand US. Simply put, the bike manufacturers ignored economic trends while pushing for record profits due to greed, not real meaningful and useful tech evolution.
People have been forced to deal with a recession not caused by the pandemic but pushed by it closer to a new economic depression. The real recession started in 2007 and 2008 when US housing market and auto manufacturers where failing. Instead of the government letting the recession hit, they over printed money to buy time, they have been doing that since, with the pandemic multiplying it to boarder catastrophic levels.
The next 5 to 6 years are going to be very bleak economically speaking. From rising food pricing, heating, gas, electricity, and I could go on.
No one in their right mind is going to be purchasing these overpriced and blinged out pleasure items currently and in the years to come. This is the real reason why bikes are sitting in warehouses. Not because the manufacturers over ordered or over saturated the supply chain. They overpriced themselves to sit on these bikes. The industry needs to go back to bikes under the 5 grand bike model. Just my opinion.
Really good thoughts Peter! One other point I'd make is bike innovation has started to plateau.... which means if folks are smart and don't buy into the marketing, then their bike will still be 90% relevant for years to come. Thanks for sharing with us all!
I wholeheartedly agree. The bike manufacturers have increased prices way beyond the rate of inflation since about 2015 in general and really got greedy during the pandemic. They thought they could charge almost any price they want and sell their bikes. For awhile that was true. Now the pendulum is starting to swing the other direction.
Overall the economy is taking a huge nosedive and the bike industry is going with it.
@@DailyMTBRider hence why I still ride my 2015 gaint trance 2 and rather enjoy it, despite it being now 3 standards old.
@Mike yup, it seems like every leasure item manufacturer has taken the Apple and Sumsung approach. Bullshit, needless marginal improvements yearly so they can sucker us into buying new leasure items more frequently, because they try make it look like your 1 or 2 year old item is crap and usless now because of the new and vastly improved.
You all planing apple when you should be blaming the entire system of capitalism. Capitalism always seeks more profit and its doing it here
I’ve seen some of the deals you’re talking about at some of our shops in Bellingham. How are they selling AXS groups for $40 over cost? Wild. Speaks to the volume available.
Yeah bro the bike market is SATURATED. Gotta sell at a hard loss to get things moved. By the way, great job on this one. Really good topic to cover.
You think the bike market is saturated, just look at the soil!
Poor Santa Cruz! Poor Soquel Demo!!!! The California mountains are gonna slide into the ocean!!!
Sorry, couldn't resist. Just kidding, kinda. Things are really, really wet. But we've seen it before in '82/'83, and other really wet years.
Yeah, experiencing this first hand. I bought a used bike in November and now I can’t get rid of the old one. Especially with terrible weather for the last two months, no one is buying bikes. Going to be selling at a loss
I agree. At my local shop, there was a Scott 950 genius that was built in June just sitting there for months. They had two of them. Finally marked it down to 2k, sat there another month, and finally someone finally bought them. Probably for Christmas. I would have at that price, but I bought another bike shortly before I saw that. 1k off a bike that's 3k retail is insane.
Just avoid those scotts with their bogus proprietary 3mm cables and that dumb typewriter of levers.
Yeah as someone who works in a big franchise bike store it's definitely baking off. Still good summer numbers here in aus but we got a huge overstock of full suspension bikes from not having any 12 months ago. Crazy prices and yeah we need to shift them now so get rid of them
no joke... the used market has crashed big time... even 6 months ago you could sell a bike on PB or CL within minutes sometimes! thanks for the video!
I definitely see the same thing
March to Nov 2022 was hard to sell 2nd hand, but as always DEC to now its booming again. I've got bikes selling in 1 day
Thanks for the heads up. I think things will get better - in a few years - if we are lucky.
I go out of my way to buy brands that have reasonable options. Picked up an Ibis Ripmo af slx for $3300 in November. I’m sick of the average cost of a new bike being 5-6k for a decent model. It’s been out of hand for awhile imo. I think you’re spot on. There will be some great deals to be had in the next year!
I took the last 10 bikes my local shop featured on Instagram and and averaged them and it was $5,590 I was looking for a gravel bike I've decided to just convert an old 90's mtb I had in my shed.
I went with a slightly used road bike. Carbon frame, 105 groupset for 900. Last year, a new bike with these specs were usually 3000 (if you could even find it in your size!)
@@heavycream6682 Gravel bike = hardtail, so good win for you. :)
I’m watching this today, 06/19/23 and you totally called it. Amazing deals going on right now!
Really want to get a new bike and would love to trade in or sell two of my bikes in order to make this happen, but the reality is that I’ll probably just end up keeping the current bikes because the prices are so high…
Nothing’s gonna change… we’ve been hearing us about cars, trucks, rent , houses & and so on…. We live in a different world now. Inflation isn’t going away….. if you see a bike that you like just buy it…
The points you made in this video could possibly be the reason I was able to get forks really cheap. So for the longest time Manitou Circus Comp forks were about £300. In December I was able to get a brand new set from ChainReactionCycles for £140 now they’ve increased the price to £180. I got them in black, they also have a white option but that stayed at £280 now they’ve both settled at £180
It probably is, I got a 2022 Fox 36 for $285 instead of $1100
The companies thought this was a boom when it was only a sale's surge. Saw the same in XC skiing too.
How do you think E-bikes are going to affect sales of new and used non-e-bikes?
Price drop... big time. Battery tech is still five years away. There is zero point to purchase an electric bike that is not self-generating. You should only have to plug it on once a week- and it should charge as you pedal. A lot of these electric bikes are a 'scam', it's extortion. I live in Silicon Valley and the amount of bank these clowns drop on their bike is enough to sicken you. It boggles my mind how people 'live to get ripped off'. It's called a PUSH-BIKE for a reason. It's the car-culture selfish mindset bleeding in on the bike biz. This whole throttle thing. It's maddening to me.
I sold 2 bikes at peak crazy and bought a new Insurgent from Bellingham local company Evil at MSRP. Right before Evil bumped their prices up for the exact same bike. Feel like I timed that one really well and now I'm gonna be in the market for a new XC bike, again with perfect timing! I also have seen supply shoot up and demand go down. The delusional asking prices on pinkbike have already started to fall and the bottom has yet to come!
My biggest thing is: try to ALWAYS go to your local bike shop. It helps your local bike shop dramatically.
Source: a local bike shop.
Why would I help a local bike shop's financial future and not help my own financial future?
@@locophoto6881 When the parts are the same price, it doesn't matter. You're not saving any money doing it online, and if you are then typically you're getting parts of a subpar quality.
@@alexflosho That is so completely not true....parts online are often much cheaper for the exact same part, and often times the shipping is free. Even still...what's wrong with supporting an online business owner....a local business owner is the same....a stranger to you that is a human being that is trying to build a business but perhaps chose more wisely to not lock themselves to a brick and mortar business model.
I work at my local bike shop, and we have a huge amount of marlins that we need to sell. But no one is coming in for bikes so now we have 50k of bikes just loosin value
SRAM temporary halted MAP (min advertised price) during the 22 Holiday Season so it gave retailers freedom to deeply discount SRAM products. But SRAM turned back on MAP effective Jan 1st. Do you feel SRAM will revisit their MAP policy? Or keep it active so the smaller LBS can be competitive with the larger retailers? Product the shops versus maintaining revenues - tough call
That's why I saw the gx axs for 300 bucks!!! Now I see them back up around 450 - 600. Darn it, I should have bought one!
@@MTBr-of-SoCal the SRAM deals were pretty amazing. Bought up a complete GX AXS kit for $280. Carbon cranks for $150, X01 cassettes for $240, Code brakes for $130, etc. Glad the MAP is back, it was draining my wallet.
@@briancarlson1364 LOL LOL! Dammit I missed out on a ton. And just my luck, I jus destroyed my derailer & rim too :(
Is this legal? At least in Eu it is illegal for manufacturers dictate at what prices companies can sell their goods at
@@basedpatriotLT MAP only enforced in the US and Canada. It’s why you see a lot of US buyers sourcing SRAM parts from the EU, even after shipping its cheaper.
Looking back at 2014 when I was in college with a fixie club and 2019 when I was finally able to buy my first MTB, I think it's like a 5-years repeating pattern. This trend has its own peak and low season. At the end of this, we need to keep pedaling to keep this industry balance.
Another factor to consider is many people including myself are deciding to switch to e bike's as I just purchased the new Lectric 3.0 and am able to go on twenty and thirty mile rides now and actually enjoy it. Hills are no longer obstacles ...
Wow amazing story there Bob! You are the real deal and people love you Bob!
Just ordered a frame/fork at a 40% discount, from a smaller "boutique" frame builder. Going to build a stupidly ridiculous "gravel bike" that will be my bike packing/road riding/daily driver. I'm a big guy so this will be the first bike that ever fits me properly. I'm pumped.
I think so too that some companies had so much unsold stock that they were just giving them away near the end of this year. Diamondback had their top of the line aluminum HT, the syncr, on sale at HALF OFF during cyberweek 2022. Took advantage of it and got myself a great bike for a deal of the century!
Dam I wish I would have known that
@@Bpf1893 keep checking out their website. When the newer model is released last year's will most likely be on sale!
Prices just went up too much in the past couple years. A high-end frame was 3000 full msrp in 2018. Now 4k to 5k. Tier1 bike use to be 8500 now $12,900. Too greedy too fast
I was just lucky enough to sell my 2017 Santa Cruz Hightower CC(XTR-11s) and apply the $2500 proceeds towards a 2021 Trek Rail 9.8 GX for the inventory blowout price of $7400. You’re absolutely right, deals can be had right now, just before Spring hits.
$7400 on a bike 😂😂😂😂
Imagine paying $7400 for a bike that you pedal 😅😅
7400 is a good car 😂😂😂
yep have seen this recently. I was not looking for a new bike at the time, but I lucked into a 2023 Domane SLR 7 eTap AXS for a stupid low price and then turn around and sold my 2021 Domane SLR 7 for what I thought was a low price, but I did not want to hang on to it over a little bit more money when I knew I had a buyer with cash in hand, so I took the deal. It was a win win for everyone. I know some people that are holding out for what they think is a fair price for their bikes, but don't have the buyers. Some were even critical of me for the price I got for my bike, but I just point to the empty spot I have on my wall where that bike hung, and just smile and say, have you sold yours yet? There was a song the gambler, know when to hold them, know when to fold them.
So you're telling me selling 11k bikes isn't sustainable.
Who knew, right? Haha hopefully they'll learn at some point.
I don’t stock any bikes in my store over $4000. Carrying that kind of real estate would bankrupt me.
Anything over the $4000 mark is all special order if they have it in stock if they don’t I couldn’t careless if they go somewhere else to buy it
This worked our well for me as a buyer , i had to buy 2 bikes one for my wife i picked up a few year old Townie Electra 7D for $150just needed a new shift cable , and a 2020 Norco Indie 2 XS for $320 CND was mint ridden maybe twice . Im on the lookout now for a BMX for myself .
A very interesting and informative article. We are as usual, the victims of supply and demand and market forces. In the UK even so called budget but quality cycles from leading manufacturers are overpriced (but offset in some cases by Ride to Work schemes and cheap finance deals) and there is also considerable depreciation to contend with affecting the cost to change after a year or so. Manufacturers are getting away with lower end components particularly with fashionable and in demand gravel and e bikes but are charging premium prices for these. They no longer represent good value. As with any consumer item, there will always be a market for the very high end equipment so this is affected less. Ultimately, the consumer decides and with diminishing disposable incomes, the industry must get real or face further loss and discounting in order to produce a profit through volume sales. Just look at the car industry. Sales of EVs are up but that bubble will soon burst as overpricing, running costs and manufacture greed hit home.
I like these so-called summer sales...in bikes...seen plenty around, something rarely ever happened :))) but still...as you said...WAIT!! Prices will drop even more towards the end of the summer
Bike companies won’t drop their prices. They just won’t order newer ones. They are going to keep their margins.
The thing is the bike companies already have. Factories do not manufacture without an order. The surplus of bikes and parts is real, prices have already started to drop and are going to continue to drop within the next few months
Yes they will… shops wont keep last years models on the floor when they have next years models coming and they will still order next years model so they don’t get caught short handed without enough bikes to meet whatever demand. Josh is right, more shops are offering percentage discounts than ever before.
Just got a new yt decoy for 4124$ lol …. $1375 below msrp
Once bike companies found out people would pay the high prices there’s no way the will drop prices!
I think they will drop their prices to move them, as if they dont get new orders in that manufacturing infastructure and labour force stands idle or costs money or dwindles. So they are better off running at low margin or cost to ride out the low point of the oversupplied market.
And they have likely made higher margins over the last couple of years to sustain a bit of a hit.
In Australia if you want to buy the higher end bikes there's a 14 month wait. Same with cars. It's different here. But the newer models have gone up through the roof.
Have a 'Coopers' on me!!!
I heard no lies.
Yeh Vitus did the same. I bought my Vitus Mythique VRX in 2020/2021. Cost me 1600. Just missed the sale where it was going for 1480.
Recently checked the latest 2022/23 model. It's 1800 and lower specced. Shocking. Glad I got mine when I did.
I bought a $20. Garage sale special and rebuilt and replaced worn out parts.
I added lights, mirror rear view camera front and rear carriers with fanny packs as tool and first aid gear.
I have the best bike ever for about $300. And I ride it every weekend and some evenings.
During Black Friday, diamondback sold their Sync’r ($1500) for $750. I don’t need a hardtail but I was close to buying it just for the deal.
Facts. I just bought a new scott spark for about $1300 less than list price. AND I can't seem to sell my current bike for what I think it's worth!