Horse Racing Tips | How to Win by Betting on Favourites
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- Опубліковано 20 чер 2024
- If you are betting on horse racing, you have probably been given a tip at some point, perhaps on the favourite.
I've always been fascinated by why favourites get so much attention in horse racing. Whenever people are betting or look at some betting strategy, it nearly always talks about the favourite in a horse race.
However, things are not as straightforward as you would expect with a favourite in horse racing.
A regular betting market is distorted by the interest in the favourite, and you can get false favourites.
So, in this video, I examine what chance a favourite has of winning a race, how you can calculate this and what key information you need to know to get a long-term winning betting strategy on favourites in Horse Races.
If you are a Betfair Trading, carefully think about this information. Understanding how a market is priced and why will give you a much deeper understanding of how it trades or may trade.
Betting activity tends to drive the underlying market, so anticipating that betting activity will help you become a better Betfair trader as well!
But curiously, being a Betfair trader may help you find value or get a positive expectancy by getting great value odds when betting and beating the closing line.
But please remember not to mix betting and trading. Also make sure you fully understand the risks involved: -
www.betangel.com/risk-notice/
Download a free trial of Bet Angel at our website: -
www.betangel.com/
Odds Convertor:-
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Enjoy!
00:00 - Introduction
00:45 - My favourite betting strategies on Horse Racing
02:08 - Why do only 1/3rd of Favourites win?
02:44 - Decimal and Fractional odds when betting on Horse Racing
05:08 - What happened when we bet £100 on each favourite in 2023
07:34 - How I use a special staking method when I bet on Favourites
10:10 - What's the most crucial tip when betting on Favourites?
12:32 - Summary & Conclusion
#betting #horseracing #sportsbetting - Спорт
One thing I should have mentioned in the video is to ensure you always consider frictional costs, such as commission. You will need to beat that to be profitable.
Great advice Peter. I don't know why I didn't ever think of that way of staking compared to Flat stakes. I applied it to my Bet result file on Value Bets,, To win 110,, and recorded the actual nett win amount as 100. (allows for commission etc). My R.O.I. increased by 3% (cool),, but the astonishing thing was,, my total outlay reduced by 75% on Total Outlay !
What about taking a bigger price in play? Often I see the fav drift out wild then crash back in and win the race.
A very good video indeed. I love backing at higher odds on favourites in-play ( rare to get past decimal odds 5.0 in-play that win ).
Best video on betting that Peter, well explained, some people say don't bet favourites but why not😉
That's gonna need another watch. Thanks for posting Peter.
I'm glad you enjoyed the video! 😊
Hi Peter, what percentage increase in odds delivered the result you demonstrated? Was it 5% or more of the final starting price?
Very interesting video. I saw the same results in backing the favourite in soccer championship on a 10 years period. This "method" has been profitable in only 1 case : english 1er League ! And the profit was not enough to pay for a good decent restaurant diner !
Do you know a web site where horse racing results are available or did you worte any single result on a paper ?
are Australian graphs more less the same or different ,weather is different there ? strange that January and February seem good for 1-st fav ,I thought that summertime is the best ,maybe they swetin 2much , I don't get horses
love this thank you Peter
Thanks for the support, glad you liked it!
The more I watch these videos, the more important they become to me. These days, most of them align with my thinking and act as additional confirmation, but occasionally there will be a discrepancy. The videos which appear at odds with my view are invaluable, leading to furious investigation into why there is a discrepancy and what, if anything, I can do about it. It is astonishing just how much depth there is in sports betting and trading.
It's great to hear, as sparking deeper insights is more or less what I'm trying to do.
I have a betting system made in 2002 which consistently runs at around a 50% hits rate and the staking system on that is to start with a bank of £1000, stake £50 each time until you reach over £1000 to which you would then stake 2% of your bank regardless of the horses’ price. It actually works very well but this approach is pretty interesting so I might give it a try…
Hello friend, my name is Brian, do you have any tutorials on pre-live horses that you can provide me with?
I'm Brazilian and no one here knows how to teach, there are only fake gurus, do you have a tutorial in PDF for me to translate?
How does the Bet Angel payout work out the stake ? Is there a formula? Does it use the Kelly Criterion? . Thanks
Hi Pete, just wanted to query if I may, your sample off favs for 2023.According to my calculations there were in excess if 12500 races run in the Uk &Ire last year - so would it be accurate to assume then your sample was around 75% of the total run?
Y, I don't bet on every race. Now and again bits of the data get corrupted or missed for one reason or another. But it's a close match to everything I was active on.
Pick a field that's 7 horses or less. Focus on the ML odds. Do what you can to determine if the 2nd and 3rd ML favorite are legit weak. If so, then bet the ML favorite on top in an exacta with the othe two ML favs underneath it. You're welcome. Try to have at least a 25 unique bankroll for this. Minimum bet is $2 so you only would need $50 bucks. I've NEVER lost money using this method. NEVER.
Great video Peter. Do you ever use bet to nothing postions rather than greening up?
I run trading and betting strategies seperately. Betting helps me generate commission which is beneficail to mitigate premium charges on the trading side of things.
Another great video Peter, only in my opinion , an odds on can be great value if you look deeper into the race , would you agree with that Peter or is there a price that you wouldn't play
Thank you for your kind words! I appreciate your support. I'm happy to look at anything. In fact either side of evens is a good place to hunt for opportunties.
I tried laying the favourite when I started using the exchange, it does work & the 1/3 strike rate is accurate, the problem I had was that I would loose the profit id just made after one loss & kept braking even
Another food for thought video. One thing I've learned with trading over many years, is that it doesn't matter what " you think " a price should be so trading like that just doesn't work. Only 'the market ' knows what price a horse ' should be '. I can categorically tell you that I know more about horseracing than you do , but I can equally categorically tell you that you know more about trading than me !
Knowing too much about a sport can be a burden when trading unless you are very disciplined. I once met somebody very knowledgeable about Racing, but he couldn't trade. He kept on saying things like, nobody should be backing this. But my response was, well, they are!!
@betangeltv It's the area I've struggled with the most. I try not to look at form but it's a constant battle.
I traded greyhounds based on form as I'm pretty clued up in that department. Needless to say it never went well 😆
@@betangeltv I've been betting horses for more years than I care to remember, have form books going back to the 70s, I have done maybe the longest apprenticeship there is on any subject you care to get involved in.
And I am still learning new and varied angles..
It took me at least 15 years to get to the stage of profitability.
I have mixed with professional gamblers, jockeys, owners and trainers.
Then came the exchanges, and this is the jungle of betting, all the best brains, all the information, all the knowledge gathered together in one place.
I realised very early in my betting career that with bookmakers you had to beat the market by quite a considerable percentage to make it worthwhile because of their high mark up on all markets, but with the exchange you only needed to beat the commission percentage to break level as they were betting so near to 100%.
Many Professional Gamblers pre exchange were very lucky to be making above 8% ROI, indeed some of the biggest most successful gamblers were making as little as 2% ROI but their turnover was huge..
I am as knowledgable about racing as anyone I have met, but you can't learn anything if you are the smartest (and most of the time the oldest person in the room).🤣
And like you said Peter too much knowledge can be a burden, but only if you take that knowledge and try and transform it in to something that takes you into different dimentions like trading etc.
Stick to what works best for you, and don't become complacent because the market changes over time but when one angle closes another is created, it has to, what worked last year may not work as well this year.
Some angles work for many years, for example one angle that I am still using and have used for over 20 years is still proving profitable.
But remember publicity is your worst predator...
How do you determine whether you hedge the market or let the bet run each time?
As surely if you’ve managed to get better odds than BSP, you’ve then got a successful trade ready to exit.
This is betting only thing, I trade on a seperate account.
When I kept beating the closing line when trading I figured it would probably be benefical to bet on it as well.
What favorite? The ML favorite? The posttime favorite? Or the favorite the experts are picking, not all of them but more than any other selection they'd have? What type of favorite in terms of odds? Odds on? Mildly priced or very soft (5/2 or higher) Also what field size? Short fields? Very short fields? Long fields or very long fields?
What about when you get flip flop favs? So you get the best odds on a horse that was at 2mins out the fav then drifted to 2fav would you bet on the now 2fav?
It's more about the move, than what is favourite.
This is sizing for volatility of returns then? So basically how much vol do you want each strategy to contribute to the volatility of your overall portfolio.
Fundementally this drops any edge you have straight into your bottom line. Level staking doesn't do that and ends up being more about the mix of winning favourites.
Would you apply the same theory and method if you were dutching multiple selections and not just the Fav or one selection?
Dutching by default aligns your betting with probability so it's a good thing to do. I have a similar dutching strategy.
And when you say Dutching by Default you mean?@@betangeltv
So the months between june and September when the ground is usually firm and dry the favourite has more chance of winning going by your graph?
Firm to good
It's more to do with better form lines.
What about when you get a fav that drifts to 2fav would you back the original fav even though its now 2fav?
I would if I thought the move was disproportionate
@grahambeyer6254 Back in 2017 - my younger, inexperienced days, I was tipped a horse in a 2 miler at plumpton. My source wasn’t an insider, but someone many considered a very good judge. Anyway he tipped it at 11/10 morning of the race and it contracted to evens, then in the hour and a half before the race drifted alarmingly all the way to an SP of 10/3. Naturally I panicked thinking I’d been given a duff tip but the horse went on to win by about 8 lengths. Moral of the story was to never be perturbed by the markets if either you’ve done your research, or have faith in your information sources.
So, conversely, instead of backing every favourite, with a strike rate of around 66%, would laying every favourite to a target liability be viable also?
All my strategies are around favorites, mostly laying, and the best approach I have found is to lay the favorite to a percentage of your bankroll (3% for me) the growth is incremental with softer down swings than level staking but with slower and steady growth. It has a less of an emotional impact for me that big swings in using level stakes can have.
Favourites have a tendancy to be overbacked in general.
@@andymason5715hi just so I understand if you have a bank of £1k and a stake of 3%> if the favourite is at 1.5 would you put lay to make £30 or that £30 is the maximum you would lose? Do you do it for every favourite in every race or just certain courses, certain races?
The trick is knowing when you have a favourite and a strong favourite, sometimes you have 3 or 4 horses that are likely to win and it makes it hard to pick.
Do you personally back favourites or do you mix it up a bit? What do you look for before placing a bet?
Im more confused watching all these videos. I thought I would research and pick my three favs..But those horses two have low odds one is 12 to 1..But watching the videos its about playing horses with higher odds not actually picking the winning horses? So pick the loosers?
Today I'm betting on 5 horses 🐎🐴🐴🐴 . My grandfather had horses 🐎🐴🐴.
Deep breaths deep breaths
I would like to know if I can access an overseas betting exchange from Australia. I’m fed up with the nanny state control the government has over peoples lives. I would appreciate any advice. Thanks.
It's frustrating dealing with government regulations. Betfair does exist in Australia, so you should be OK there. Unless you are talking specially about inplay betting. But I can help there also.
@@betangeltv Australia is a very small market, that's why i need betfair uk, a much bigger market. Bet fair Australia is useless.
So never bet the favorite and increase your olds by 66%
Price is everything, if you get 2/1 heads then you can spin that coin as many times as you want and you will definitely win long term because you are getting value (a price bigger than the true chance of winning) that doesn't mean that coin will not land on tails even though you have the value, its the same principle with backing horses if you bet prices bigger than the true chance of winning then you will always win long term...
How do you know if you are backing value?
Look at your Profit and Loss annually and if it shows your in profit then you have an edge...
Now wheres that person that wants to lay me 2/1 heads..🤣
They use professional odds compilers and are never wrong with price, if it's 10/1 it should be 10/1
@Enochsrite, Most bookmakers no longer use professional odds compilers. Besides, I've beaten them each year for nearly 25 years.
Professional odds compilers are never wrong with price?
Of course they get their prices wrong, when pricing up anything its just the odds compilers calculation of that price, they get it wrong many times on all types of markets..
You forgot to mention about how the method of betting helps with the Premium Charge.
Indeed it does
@@betangeltvdo you have any videos specifically about the best way to navigate PC? If not would you consider making one?
don't. bite a horse, horse can bite back and the u run together on the streets
Peter i owe you a Apology , Called you Smarmy ,Im SORRY you seem to be a nice Decent Bloke.😊😊😊
Keep in mind that only 34% of ALL favourites win Meaning 66% DO NOT