How To Make $1 Billion On Horse Racing
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- Bill Benter is the most successful gambler you've never heard of. After being banned from Vegas for beating the house at Blackjack, he turned to Hong Kong where he devised a system that could predict the horses. Around a billion dollars later, this is his story.
Video by Tom Gibson
#BWStorylines
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I read about this guy a while ago and I still stand by the idea that this guy should have a movie made about him.
Yet if you'd met him on the street I doubt you'd have believed him.
@@raygordonteacheschess5501 I doubt any sane person would. For example the idea of a person turning down the jackpot after spending out about $1m putting bets down seems ludicrous. The videos doesn't explain it that well but if I remember correctly he was being pressured by the authorities in Hong Kong and him not accepting the jackpot was a sort of peace offering but if a guy in the street said 'I once turned down a $20m jackpot' you would say alright you crazy wanker, whatever you say
It wasn't "the authorities" but the HK Jockey Club. Chinese culture values mysticism more than empirical analysis, and Benter exploited that mercilessly. Cashing the ticket would have meant telling the Chinese there's no Santa Claus or something like that. He would have lost too much in future profits had he cashed, or so one story said.
@@raygordonteacheschess5501 (The) authorities
plural noun
official organisations with the legal power to enforce rules, regulations, and laws etc
'The decision was made with the full agreement of local authorities'
So technically, they were 'the authorities'
@@sajjeel123 Correct. In this case, the jockey club were the authorities.
After watching this video I still don’t know how to make 1 billion dollars on horse betting...
TreasureMap
You bet on number #5 always
Summary: years of data collection and analysis.
it's very simple, collects at least 10 years of data and makes machine learning that predicts the win with 90% accuracy. start betting and make money
You have to bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on a regular basis.
Ya dont say
This guy was using machine learning before it was cool.
Yeah
Ink and paper works wonders for governments.
Damnit Bobby we’ll that’s kind of what machine learning is... instead of using an automatic loss function or something like linear regression he was just hard coding his parameters and getting other people to update his model.
I would say it’s pseudo machine learning in a way.
Ok man, I’m gonna write this as my last comment because it’s not worth arguing.
This is a very basic form of ML, known as linear regression. It doesn’t “create” its own instructions, instead it looks at old data and tries to assign a certain weight to each of the inputs and also adds in some kind of bias to ensure that it doesn’t fail in zero sum inputs. That’s EXACTLY what he did. Constantly using old and new data to update his “model”. His loss function was simply money earned, and he wanted to maximize it and yeah he used gradient descent to maximize his odds slowly by slowly. A modern machine would be able to train a model within a few hours but since machine learning wasn’t even known yet, it took him years. The concepts are EXACTLY the same.
You should pick up a ML book and look into the most basic form of machine learning and you’ll soon see that he was in fact using linear regression.
Damnit Bobby lmao who hurt u
Bill Benter wrote an academic paper on his model, entitled "Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping
and Wagering Systems: A Report" , for those who may be interested in knowing more. His model did not involve AI or machine learning, it was rather a multi-variable regression model, which are well known to those familiar with early computer modeling of complex systems. The trick is to determine which factors (of the hundreds possible) are most important in predicting the outcome of races, and being able to quantify their impact. It is an iterative process, with lots of back-testing involved.
was looking for this. Thanks!
@@TiredBush I see. You're going to read the paper and go out and make your own billion $$$. Wow, you really got it all figured out don't you? LOL
@@leodf1 thats what im working on
So could someone come along and apply AI to his model, meaning there would be no human involvement needed?
Does his method still work ?
*Tommy Shelby wants to know your location*
Imagine a movie on this guy with Tommy leading the role
How to make a billion at horseracing: First, start with two billion.
Dad, is that you?
@@YourUncle8501 Lmao is that actually your dads name?
@@slugboi2340 I wish. my dad never came back from the store...
That statement needs to be engraved on a beautiful fabulous slab of granite 👍🤣🤣🤣
That’s how to lose a billion you bum
Go back in time and give yourself a sports almanac.
Go forward in time and give yourself a sports almanac. ?
You gon bet on old horses? 😂
Mason Alex you can bet on whatever you like ! I’m sure sports almanac includes all sports
Sounds like back to the future to me.
I wasn't a fan of all these stuff people post online saying I've fixed numbers that will help you becoming rich 💰💰💰till I came across a genius in the game , I was shock at first I thought it was a prank he played but it was actually real...his game is fixed and hasn't failed since I started playing it 💯💯💯 I recommend you all to him on insta Hacks_bill201
Oh I know this one, Same as Q :"How do you make a small fortune in racing?" A : "Start with a large fortune"
Awesome. These feats, even if people dont like them will be written in history books.
This is an Oscar-winner waiting to be made. What the hell is Hollywood doing?
This guy is a legend.
@rambull Jr This video is sponsored by the Horse racing casino and this guy is just an actor .......
I read this article in bloomberg..... so much info thanks
how to become a billionaire fast?
: learn statistics , programming , machine learning and data science
and let computers do the work
Well if this was true then all the stock traders would've been trillionaires
Wicked Gamer check jim simons. Now days only fools think they can bet against quants and data scientists at Wall Street. But it’s not like how some people think... It’s not easy to model.
Wicked Gamer Doesn’t work for everything. But it does work for some things.
what...not the " Force "
@@Ms123kill Still not on Buffett's level.
Are there any books on these guys? I am surprised how this story has not been turned into a movie.
Make a documentary about this guy
It’s easy own the betting shops you’ll never lose
Jeff Price kick the winners out
Monopoly always wins.
Jeff Price you will need a 5 Millions for that
That is why William Hill left Australia
Fuuuuuuuck sakes... Who takes an incredible story played out over decades with way more detail and intrigue and distills it down to this.. seriously, Google this story and have your mind blown
Anything recommended? I'm definitely interested in this story!
@@joshn2342323 Try Bloomberg's own written article on this. Way more interesting than this video.
@@deep.space.12 ya it was that article I originally read, plus others, but it had so much detail.. what a story
This guy was actually from future and he knows these results before it happened
3 words: gray’s sports almanac
How do we find Bill? Does Bill teach a class that we can learn from?
And here I am dying while studying each horse's history with race arena, weather etc. etc. to make out a probability for which horse will win. And most of the time it works but something that can't often be predicted is luck. Sometimes it is just luck... unless someone is pulling the strings.
this is so interesting
I finally watched after the 1,000 times it was on my recommended
Go back to 85 and get that almanac
Didn’t work for me now I’m in debt
jose cruz bruh
Have you recouped yet
It because your nor Benter smart
If you aint cheatin you aint winning.
I have it.
These are the stories we need to be telling kids in school so they can see the fun, benefits and most importantly APPLICATION of studying mathematics.
By gambling? 😂
What's funny is that Andrew Beyer thought his speed figures were killing the prices for everyone else, when it was Benter's probability model and rebates.
does it still work now if everyone is doing it doesn't it counter the effect of the data prediction, or if everyone got it right the final payout would be much less to the point it won't cover the cost?
Not everyone does it, and he gets a betting rebate that the average player does not. Without that rebate he never would have won that kind of money.
Hey I've been to that track!
That's the whole comment.
....How is this diffrent from whats happening on the stock markets today?
Its not, that the punchline. Our whole global economy is just a big casino
Lol it’s pretty different
Love the KayPro 10 running MS DOS v. 2.4. Takes me back to a time when every computer session started with “C:/”. Kudos to the Producer and Art Director.
Peaky fookin’ Blinders
The title Should have been *"how to make $1B on horse betting"*
It is
@Straight Quality ya that's exactly how I understood it.
Or How to make Dummies like boomers haha
Man your dumb
@@bumbullbeez *you're
Would love to know what he does now. Could he have used those predictive models and applied them to the financial markets like Jim Simons?
Yes, but this dispatch fails to mention that the horses abandoned him
after they found out about his devious scheme.
Those gambling companies are surprised he always wins but they aren't surprised they bankrupt people who try to win.
Wrong. The bookies with whom he bets kick back rebates to guys like this, while the average player gets a dime less per dollar on what he collects.
Step one: steal old mans time machine
Step two: give copy of sports almanac to younger self
That would be an awesome movie😂
Loll
Make it a movie with a guy named biff
The biggest assist to gambling is Excel. Using a spreadsheet you can try a zillion different combinations at zero cost until you find the one that pays.
This guy has nothing on Australian gambler Zeljko Ranogajec - A mathematics genius who has an estimated annual turnover of over $3bn who also developed a computer program to bet on races across the globe. Another punter no one has heard of.
". How to make a billion" get Woods as your partner.
I think you are better off keeping track of small cards..so you can double on soft 18s hit 12;and 13 against small cards with success
Now I would imagine Ai systems today are more profitable
they need to make a movie about this guy,,,what an interesting story
He is a genius
Am not a gambler..but during KY- Derby...I always empty my billfold..betting trifecta.etc..the moment horses would be flying..people 🔊 for their horses...life is living🙄🙄
I wish he gave me that ticket. It would've changed my life
As for horses..I know I'm in the top 5% of the best.. I've helped people who like betting favorites..looking for better payout..some never want a winner but a horse that might win at a decent price.
you're either making money or you're not, there's no top percentile because 99% are losing money. And if you are making money you can scale it to where you're making millions a year.
@@luscious9797 I have not worked since 2011. July9th to be exact..Some month i break even. Happens. My least amount I profited was just under 72k in 2014 I think it was
@@clintbordelon3129 yea right internetboy
Just get the 1950 - 2000 Grays sports almanac. Bet on the winner and you'll never lose.
Make a movie about him and have Leonardo DiCaprio play the role
Brilliant well done you never see a bookie get hammered but they still don't lose for the amount of gamblers but it's nice to see some body win huge
There's Hollywood movie somewhere in this story
thanks ill go do this now
Where is the LongTake?
What a great man!
Great narrative
How did you determine he made 1 billion? is that gross, after-tax and expenses, factoring in losses? What is it?
it's almost certainly an exaggeration. Their syndicate only made 6600 bets (or bet on 6600 races, cannot recall) over 10 years. Happy Valley only races part of the year, 8 races per meet. No way you could *net* that much with so little opportunity. I think they probably netted $50 million over those years, and had to pay staff, etc. Still amazing.
To make £1 billion..... be the bookmaker
How can i contact this man
You stole this video idea from Economics Explained, wow, cheap move Bloomberg!
David Pereira it’s ok, I actually got the inspiration after reading a Bloomberg article. so circle of life I guess xD
@@EconomicsExplained After reading "a" (!) Bloomberg article? You mean the (!) Bloomberg article I guess since it covers the exact same content of this video.
How to make a billion dollars in horse racing? Open a race track and ask the government for a bailout if you fail.
Or go public and screw the shareholders a la FRANK STRONACH.
Title: How To Make $1 Billion On Horse Racing
*Me: You Just Drug All the horses but your's Before The Race? duh*
The algorithm is searching for the one.
is this patched? does it still work
I loved this video, thanks.
Billion dollar was misleading
when you put all your points on mastering Propability 😏
Bookmakers are limited by their customers in making their odds. For example if event has 55% but bookmaker knows 70% of customers Will bet that outcome they will be forced to make odds closer to 70% which create opportunity for professional bettors. So you basically look % of bets on something and bet against it.
He picked 1-9 that’s insane, what am I doing with my life
3:29 well basic, early personal computer
economic explained has already done this
This would make a cool movie
Science beats the odds.
It doesn't work for everything, Bill tried to perfect a system for Baseball but was unable to do so. Remember he started with 16 variables & barely made money. In the end he had a 130 variables!
he admits after a certain # of factors it was pointless. Using 'The Public' as the baseline and tweaking their odds is what made the difference. You can't come up with independent odds from The Public and win. He saw there was a 'bias' (a bad one) when he did that, and had an epiphany: if you cant beat them , join (use) them.
Peaky boys type beat.
First step: have a short friend and nickname him gypsi
His method is now antiquated sadly. Horse racing trading methods have changed, jockey tactics are very different now than what they were years ago.
this is magic
When you don’t know the rules to the game you get played
the bookie tells the favourite jockey to slow down and lose
I am enough
Poker players from the 70's could have told you this was possible. They likely could have done it themselves.
With what computers? This story is of course about mathematics and clever people with a vision, but just like the moon landing it was NOT possible without computers. So no, I don't think poker players from the 70's could have pulled this off.
There are in fact ways to make money from horse race betting. In my 30 years of form analysis I've come across a few 'anomalies that strongly tilt the odds in one's favour. Of course, I'm not going to reveal it here but let's just say that I've never ever heard a so called 'professional' commentator or tipster mention it.😂💥
Does concept of leverage apply in this type of market ? If so how
Don’t think so that’s why you need a massive capital to start off
Great video... Similar to what we do at Zcode, he used the machine learning and stats to build the advanced models that predict the winners with the great accuracy.
and here's my scraping a 5r from under the sofa to place a bet that doesn't win...
Step 1: Be a genius
Any1 know the name of the song that starts at 1:30. it’s always used in UA-cam documentaries
Is that a Grays Sports Almanac in your pocket or are you just happy to see me
Fell asleep before I heard how to win.
2:16 - Bill looks like Edward Norton Jr. He could do his life story.
Most guys like Benter wind up in the options market making billions each year but he wanted to beat the game they said he couldn't beat. Oddly his algorithm only recently accounted for trainer switches.
is he still doing this, the articles seemed to imply he moved back to the US long ago. His paper is from 1994, and was written after he was already successful. So perhaps 30 years ago, and a mega millionaire - I wonder why he'd still go thru the hassle. If so, I wonder if he's using the Betfair Exchange, much better odds due to no track take.
The UK bookmakers don't like accepting bets on horse racing, well they are really more like Casinos now, if you manage to successfully land a few winning live sports bets they just restrict that players account.
If the American professional gambler was making so much money he didn't need to come forward to pick up his millions why bother having a go ?
Economics Explained viewers?
When he sat on the chair I thought he's going to say I'm the nerd
Steve Martin 1-21-78 SNL You.. can be a millionaire.. and never pay taxes! You can be a millionaire.. and never pay taxes! You say.. “Steve.. how can I be a millionaire.. and never pay taxes?” First.. get a million dollars. Now.. you say, “Steve.. what do I say to the tax man when he comes to my door and says, ‘You.. have never paid taxes’?” Two simple words. Two simple words in the English language: “I forgot!” How many times do we let ourselves get into terrible situations because we don’t say “I forgot”? Let’s say you’re on trial for armed robbery. You say to the judge, “I forgot armed robbery was illegal.” Let’s suppose he says back to you, “You have committed a foul crime. you have stolen hundreds and thousands of dollars from people at random, and you say, ‘I forgot’?” Two simple words: Excuuuuuse me!!“
I fondly recall he did that routine in his live show, but may have stopped with the punchline. I still say that to myself when I get depressed, it always makes me smile.
I thought It’d be funny to share this. I got a 1-800-Gambling ad right before this video started. Oh how ironic
start with 100 billion?
You can become a millionaire betting the horses if you're a billionaire.
I have developed systems for both greyhounds and thoroughbreds in Australia and both systems work extremely well, but it's hard to make big money because the gutless online bookmakers wont take the bets most of the time, when it really matters. i hate them and I dont believe they should ever be allowed to refuse a bet, and the same for casinos (even though i don't play casinos) they should not be allowed to ban people for winning.
😂😂😂