Forecast Discussion - February 27, 2024 - Complex Severe Threat Takes Aim at the Midwest
Вставка
- Опубліковано 26 лют 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
February 27, 2024: SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for today from southern Michigan into much of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Supercells are expected to fire ahead of a surface low across northern Illinois by late afternoon. Questions remain over the degree of low-level destabilization given shallow moisture and a strong cap, which may not erode fully, allowing storms that do form to be elevated with only a large hail risk. If full destabilization occurs, we could see a tornado threat materialize. Farther south, storms will initiate along the surging cold front overnight, posing a damaging wind and brief tornado risk.
Become a Patreon member today to support the channel: / convectivechronicles
Facebook: / convectivechronicles
X: / convchronicles
Instagram: / convectivechronicles - Наука та технологія
2 PM UPDATE: SPC has once again upgraded tornado probabilities, this time for the area just south and southwest of the Chicago metro. Latest models are showing a bit higher confidence in discrete warm sector supercells, which could pose a low but nonzero strong tornado threat.
11 AM UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) in two separate areas for today's event. A small upgrade has been made across northern Illinois (including the Chicago metro) and far southeast Wisconsin, where supercells are expected to fire ahead of the surface low late this afternoon. Confidence in very large hail has increased enough to warrant an upgrade there.
A second upgrade has been made to the corridor encompassing southern Illinois and Indiana, southwest Ohio, and northern Kentucky, as SPC has seen enough to increase probabilities for significant damaging wind and tornadoes (perhaps some strong) in convection tonight into the overnight hours. I'll be honest, I'm scratching my head at the need for upgraded tornado probabilities for this area, as storm mode should be quite unfavorable and low-level thermodynamics should be marginal at best, but the folks at SPC are the best in the business, so if you are in these areas, be prepared for significant severe weather.
Thank you so much for the update trey!
Thanks
Chicago here. Eyes on the sky, i have work until 8:45 pm so hopefully my car doesn't get hail damage!
best of to yous man
I will pray for you!
I’m in far southeast Wisconsin at the edge of the slight risk, and the heat and humidity is real right now. The sky is clear, the sun is intense, and the air is stagnant. There’s still a layer of hazy mist hanging over the ground despite full sun.
Same here in NE IL. There’s definitely something in the air
My area in northern IL just got upgraded to an Enhanced risk for large to very large hail. Hope everyone has a garage or something to cover their vehicles in!
They also introduced the risk for a few significant tornadoes as well. My question is why didn’t they go with that the first time? How could you not get significant severe weather with how hot and humid it has been???
Indiana native here. We had almost 2 hours of bright sunshine earlier.
That’s good news!
Kalamazoo checking in, eyes to the sky. Thanks again Trey for taking the time to do this
Thank you for doing this despite being short on time! Hope the appointment went well
Thank you! Going well so far
Good stuff for a budding Meteorological nerd. Thank you sir, God bless.
exactly
Hopefully everyone has their dr peppers ready in the cooler on the back porch! ready for this storm season, but hope everyone makes it home tonight as they did yesterday
Very interesting night, interested to see your analysis!
I live in NW IL and watching this as I hear thunder from the approaching storm is just wonderful.
Thank you for the update Trey! Couldn't chase, I had to work late. I would have started out between Rockford and DVN, and that would have been pretty good. 🙄 presently, this side of the storm has the feel of an Alberta Clipper. Tomorrow morning, the 75° temperatures will feel like it was months gone past.🥶 The tornadic weather will seem like a weird, surreal dream, as we wake up in Winter again.😵💫 I hope everyone in danger's way is aware and stays safe. Night tors = not good.
That would’ve been a great target! Same thing here in Norman; the cold front just came through and it’s now frigid!
Thx for the update
I’m in Detroit and today is my birthday! Great weather in the upper 60’s which is so unusual but I am going to be inside after 6pm car in the garage and hope for the best! Stay safe out there
Happy birthday! That’s a great plan!
Wow bimodal enhanced now with 30% hatched hail added for extreme NE Illinois and SE Wisconsin and a 10% hatched tornado corridor to the south. Complex setup is an understatement, great analysis as always!
Thank you! I’m a little surprised at the southern 10% hatched given an unfavorable storm mode and somewhat meager low level thermodynamics, but we shall see.
I know you mentionef the "enhanced upgrade" before noon, Trey. The WRF ROI was showing the potential for strong tornadoes and even long-tracked across the southern-half of Illinois and Indiana this evening.
Interesting. I’m still a bit skeptical of the strong tornado threat materializing given storm mode issues, but I’m interested to see how this plays out.
Oh no! Enh risk for wind,tornadoes and hail all added after you uploaded this video! That is myu luck right there! Great video and yet another tricky forecast! (Someone tell mother nature to make these forecast freakin easyier PLEASE!)
Thank you! Haha yeah, Mother Nature needs to make up her mind!
The only channel I trust when it comes to severe weather in my area. I hope it pops off a little; I took today off just for the bad weather.
Thank you! Enjoy the storms!
SE Michigan here and its blue skys and sunny almost no wind just a nice day
We just got a new roof in September (live in northern indiana), hoping this hail doesn’t mean we need another one 🙄🤦🏽♀️
I will pray for you!
Nice one man 👌🏻
West Central Indiana checking in, eyes to the sky, dont be scared be prepared, its the wonder of nature baby!
Lansing Michigan here. Keeping an eye on the skies. And radios tuned.
Here in central IN it's warm and windy, but overcast. I'm hoping that will limit the convection locally.
I'm in Auglaize county, Ohio, we're prepped & ready.
we now have 2 enhanced areas around chicago/NE illinois (30% hashed hail) and northern kentucky borders (missouri, southern il, southern in, southern oh) for 10% hashed tornado.
Yeah, little surprised at the southern upgrade tornado-wise, personally not really seeing a strong tornado threat given an unfavorable storm mode and somewhat marginal low level thermos
Great presentation Trey! I might add that SPC has just upgraded to an enhanced risk and a 10% hatched tornado risk area for Ohio river valley for the overnight hours. Thank you again!
Thank you! I’m scratching my head a bit at why they decided to upgrade the tornado risk for the southern mode. The storm mode should be quite unfavorable, and low level thermodynamics should be marginal at best. I can see the upgrade for wind in the southern mode and for hail in the northern mode, but I just don’t see the strong tornado threat south. But SPC is the best in the business, so folks in those areas should be prepared.
Wonky is as wonky does 😉 Thanks for taking the time to do the video, Trey!
Haha you got that right!
Evansville Indiana here, I'm curious to see how all this plays out today
Im in indy and honestly a little worried
insane how much the hrrr solution has been changing between each run
Chicago here also. Contemplating chasing today depending on how it looks.
Just upgraded to Enhanced for strong tornadoes & damaging winds 🚨🚨
Scratching my head at the tornado upgrade but can see it for wind
These are more so fast moving storms presumably, mainly because the cold front ahead of the system is so abrupt.
Driving to DeKalb tonight, now in enhanced zone
I’m surprised at the ENH risk in the south- models have been disagreeing about the placement of convective initiation since 12z yesterday. I’m interested to see how this plays out.
Very sunny and warm in St. Louis
A new SPC update has been released. Some areas in the slight risk zone have upgraded to an enhanced risk.
Yes, made a post about it in the Community section just now
SPC just introduced two enhanced risk areas at 10:30 this morning with a 10% hatch for tornadoes southern IL to Southern IN.
Yeah, not really sure why the tornado probs were upgraded in the southern mode
All these people who knock weatherman but nobody truly sees behind the scenes other than making a forecast. 👍
Thank you for uploading this! I am wondering what your thoughts are on Dayton Ohio? Mostly south of it. Any major concerns for there? Thank you!
I’d be on alert after midnight as more convection starts to develop on the cold front and pushes east.
Thank you! I shall stay awake late tonight just in case. @@ConvectiveChronicles
I don’t think we will see the worst of it, but just keep your phone on and have a plan for if shit hits the fan.
I hope so! I deal with weather anxiety I just hope it doesn't get bad. @@Tommy88-
From Louisville. Might have trouble sleeping tonight haha.
How bad do you think it’s gets by Rockford IL tonight?
Would definitely prepare for supercells with an all hazards threat, large hail being the greatest threat
Anything expected for NW AR?
No, should be all good there; if any storms do fire, they should remain subsevere
just updated it to enhanced for southern indiana and northern illinois
1:00 I gotta make this video quick because I have an appointment. Proceeds to have almost a 30 minute discussion. 🤣
That’s quick for me😂
haha, I understand. I appreciate the content on your channel. Well done!@@ConvectiveChronicles
What does a pretty spiral hodograph mean? I can give a date and location for tornado archive for context
Yes, do you have a date/location for me?
@@ConvectiveChronicles may 26, 1965, northern Illinois. 12z through 15ish z. Ironically, the surface maps for that day also is similar to today🙃
@@ConvectiveChronicles also can’t remember if you/your associates are chasing tonight. Stay safe if you are!
Thank you! I couldn't chase this time due to some stuff I had to take care of yesterday morning. Looking forward to better opportunities soon!@@gd2234_
A lot of energy towards Northern Illinois, not much south? I don't agree with the map.
I can see why they did the little horseshoe in the probabilities, omitting central IL. The warm sector is expected to stay capped, so storm development will remain north along the surface low and south when the cold front comes in. I don’t understand the upgrade for strong tornadoes in the southern mode though
WI/IL border here. Super sticky outside. Will probably have dinner out towards Rockford in case there's anything worth chasing
Ok maybe not with the SPC giving us a monster hail upgrade and low end tornado I think I'll protect the car for today. Stay safe everyone!
Sun is out here in Northern Ohio
That’s not good.
Eyes on the sky will be on in the miami valley reigon
Kinkiness 🥴
Nuanced weather extreme games
enhanced now
The weather word of the day is "wonky" and when the weather get's wonky, I get the Hypo-piddy-witties. 😁
Ohio saying ohayo, shit almost hit my grandma , she’s fine tho !
It’s been such a beautiful day I don’t even care that im gonna get wrecked by a migraine later
Hoping to get a decent storm out here in Maryland, knowing it isnt likely but still a hopw