v useful stuff guys thanks... you specifically used Randle as an example of minutes review, and I was wondering if that's like a live thought? Because I have manually boosted him from 33 to like 38 mins for the median non-foul trouble case... isn't 35.4 the Knicks case? I assumed the 33 was patching to just the one preseason data point? I guess the whole minutes vs efficiency thing seems a little unclear still? Are there vegas lines on minutes played? Otherwise, the plan is to just fit the vegas stats into a manual model? I guess the specific touchpoint here is "how did we wind up with just 36 minutes of Centers for Boston today?" Assumption that the vegas Tillman minutes are as a third Center or some sort of going small? Just because Kornet props impute fewer minutes? Is it possible to decouple "a player is unpopular and so their prop market winds up lower due to lower demand"?
There aren't vegas lines on minutes. The prop stuff is an input into the model but we still do minutes internally through our own model. Weighing recent data more and still accounting for historical data
Highly personal question that I'm not sure everyone is comfortable answering. I (Andrew-host of office hours and build review show) have lifetime 6 figure earnings in DFS. I have 2 screenshots in the winner's circle page (100k and 150k) www.sabersim.com/winners-circle
I think you really need to make it clear that you are using props as the input now and therefore Sabersim should NOT be used to try to bet and beat prop markets..
We do not have a betting product and haven't had one for a long time. We do not recommend people to take our data and try to beat props with it. Anybody who is doing this is using the data in a way it's technically not intended to be used so that is definitely a personal choice that we generally caution against.
The projections so far in NFL look better. This should help keep NBA projections normal!
v useful stuff guys thanks... you specifically used Randle as an example of minutes review, and I was wondering if that's like a live thought? Because I have manually boosted him from 33 to like 38 mins for the median non-foul trouble case... isn't 35.4 the Knicks case? I assumed the 33 was patching to just the one preseason data point?
I guess the whole minutes vs efficiency thing seems a little unclear still? Are there vegas lines on minutes played? Otherwise, the plan is to just fit the vegas stats into a manual model? I guess the specific touchpoint here is "how did we wind up with just 36 minutes of Centers for Boston today?" Assumption that the vegas Tillman minutes are as a third Center or some sort of going small? Just because Kornet props impute fewer minutes? Is it possible to decouple "a player is unpopular and so their prop market winds up lower due to lower demand"?
There aren't vegas lines on minutes. The prop stuff is an input into the model but we still do minutes internally through our own model. Weighing recent data more and still accounting for historical data
so this is either going to be good, or go terribly wrong
Been hella good for football
Question for the 3 guys.
What are your individual dfs winnings?
Highly personal question that I'm not sure everyone is comfortable answering. I (Andrew-host of office hours and build review show) have lifetime 6 figure earnings in DFS. I have 2 screenshots in the winner's circle page (100k and 150k) www.sabersim.com/winners-circle
what site you taking the props from?
We use:
CAESARS
DRAFTKINGS
FANDUEL
PINNACLE
In SaberSim we trust
IDK, it's been rough lately
Nba sure has been a rough start, NFL has been so-so
I think you really need to make it clear that you are using props as the input now and therefore Sabersim should NOT be used to try to bet and beat prop markets..
We do not have a betting product and haven't had one for a long time. We do not recommend people to take our data and try to beat props with it. Anybody who is doing this is using the data in a way it's technically not intended to be used so that is definitely a personal choice that we generally caution against.
🔥🔥
Props are based on median, not mean.
The Model is going to be Laker (Bronny) Bias. 😛
What a weird start. Is this will kid ok?