@@iishyxvietxboyii12024 does not have low inventory in all places. There are over 100 houses new and old for sale in my 10 mile drive to work. Street after street have 3-4 of the exact same brand new house for sale. Tons of inventory all of Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 dude I do know BC I bought my house in 08 in Florida a foreclosure. I literally looked at brand new houses with plastic still on the appliances already in foreclosure. They over built them and they are over building now.
House prices are ridiculously way way way too high. They are 3x real value in super bubble areas and 2x real value most other places. If I were a young person trying to buy a house in the USA right now, I'd move to Bolivia before I'd pay these ripoff prices. No No No!
So are eggs, gas prices, utilities, insurance, health care and the list can go on for a long time. Maybe the dollar has just lost too much of it's value and wages have not kept up with iREAL INFLATION rates.
@raffiart5121 Google "home prices in gold" and you will see that home prices are still the same as in the 1980's on the charts. Similar scenario if you price houses in the price of a barrel of oil. In the 80' s it was about $20 and today about $80. A four times increase. Keep in mind that homes today are also being built bigger and with more requirements. I think the real problem is that people have been lied to for a long time about inflation to keep wages low and profits high. You see that reflected in the stock market.
I stepped out of the market in 2022, now interest rate is still much higher than they were back then, and so are home prices. So why do they think I can re-enter the market and buy now? For it to be affordable in my case, both prices and interest rates would need to be lower than they were in 2022. At this point, people who already bought homes can refinance, but that doesn't help bring in new buyers
@@j.l.salayao8055 I'm willing to bet this will be more if a "slow and steady wins the race" type of scenario when all you fomo rabbits are underwater on your mortgage
FOMO buying is done and unfortunately for those who bought during the FOMO years and found themselves in a home needing substantial renovations, the new construction market is way more expensive than what it used to be, so they have no way out unless another FOMO buyer swoops in and decides to waive inspections like they did in 2021-2023.
@@theRetainer renovation is expensive we spent close 200k to renovate a flip house and barely made $60k in profit 1 month ago. We dropped the price fast to secure the sale because I don’t want to be the last one holding the bag. Same amount of renovation would be 100-120k before Covid.
I don’t think sales will increase much at all. Rates have come down from the high 8s to mid 6s and it did nothing to help sales. That’s a 200 basis point cut that did nothing.
In fact, sales decreased. 200 basis points in rate reduction, 20-30% more inventory, and sales still decreased. During PEAK buying season. The U.S. consumer simply can't afford these prices. They must come down or sales with stay below 4m.
What's interesting about that 200 bps move is the Fed didn't cut rates during that timeframe yet mortgage rates have moved up slightly ever since the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday. Goes to show how mortgage rates account for future expectations of the Fed's moves.
How long will it take todays lower rates to actually show up in closed home sales? Isn't there like a one to two month lag ? Supposedly, there are a lot of buyers waiting for rates to drop into the 5's to get serious about putting in offers. Rates are already in the high 5's.
Good to see! As long as the inventory increases, interest rates slowly fall, and people don't buy as much then 2025 should look even better than this year but only time will tell.
Record low sales all while mortgage rates dropped from the high 7s to the low 6s. That a 1.5% drop in mortgage rates so people are not buying while inventory is growing. It's very interesting and still points to the problem that prices are too high for most people to buy.
Great video and interesting hearing and seeing comments about waiting for Rates to come down lower- a one percent decrease would save somebody about $250 a month on a $400,000 home loan Should that home value go up at an average of even 3% annually that’s getting $12,000 of equity at the cost of $3000 and if you multiply that year over year clearly homeownership has its advantages I think it’s a combination of higher prices , higher rates, taxes, insurance and the fact that incomes have not caught up with the 60% increase in the home prices over the past four years
Cutting rates is an incentive to wait for better rates as a buyer. This is the real estate cycle in action. There’s less reason for buyers to move quickly, but more projects are completed every month leading to higher vacancy, all while fear of recession prevents major purchases.
With sales in the tank for more than a year, I don't understand how we're not seeing a mass exodus from real estate agents, and lots of mortgage companies going out of business.... maybe we're just not hearing about it though.
The rate affects the amount paid over the life of the loan far more than the original sales price does. It's shocking how few people on UA-cam seem to realize that.
In central Jersey. One bedroom condos are selling for the same price as studios and one bedrooms in NYC (Manhattan) midtown by Central Park! The difference is HOAs! How is NYC getting away with HOA of 2,000+ a month! That’s seems like fraud🤷🏼♀️. The HOA is around 400 a month in NJ, with more roofs and landscaping to care for. Makes no sense at all.
If you truly look at the data overall in the US, housing prices increased year by year. Long gone are the days of $200,000 homes. This is the new norm and housing is not crashing.
Jason you keep trying to imply that price appreciation is coming from the mix of homes sold. You were saying this months ago. I pointed out the case shiller has same house sales so it isn’t affected by the mix. Case shiller lags so you had you couldn’t compare. However now that it has been months we now have case shiller up to June. So you can look at the June case shiller and see that when you were saying the appreciation was coming from 1M+ homes you were wrong. And more than likely 3 months from now case shiller will show you wrong now in September.
Utah market is still crazy! They stopped building houses around us for 6 months. But now it is right back to it. Our home is only 2 1/2 years old. Not seeing slow down here at all
"Home sales were disappointing", this framing is kind of irritating. "Disappointing" for who? It makes it sound like we should be worried about real estate companies and how many transactions they make per year off of grossly inflated products
Where I work, a company that provides services to the gov. They just laid off around 50 engineers... and when I was hired 8 years ago I was told by then the nanager the job was very safe, very rare soneone... would be fired... either things changed or economy is in really bad shape
In my corner of Yolo County some homes were taken off the market, then put back on a few weeks later at slightly reduced prices. Presumably to reset DOM. These may still be overpriced for neighborhood and condition.
Week after week we sit here and act like this is all normal. No fraud, or manipulation. In other news: Senator Hawley tried, yet again, to pass a bill blocking senators from insider trading. lol. 😂
That’s one city in the entire nation. This video is on nationwide stats. The same could be said on the opposite side of the spectrum if I use Texas or Florida.
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Read the original comment. “Come to LA and you’ll see multiple offers and cash offers”. My response was in regards to multiple offers along with cash offers. Not whether or not prices are up or down. Try and focus on the initial statement and response. Your answer has nothing to do with either one.
with interest rates going down - home sales will explode, expect the prices to go up at least another 40 %, remember every percent lower mortgage is 10 % higher in home price , so we should already start looking for new median prices to be atleast 20% higher next month ( there are 2 kind of people in the world one that understand sarcasm and ther other are realtors)
I don’t think prices will go up this ain’t 2021 when people were getting stimulus checks for a down payment. Also a lot of people can’t afford this Gas, electricity, home insurance and property taxes .
But that’s not happening. Sales have been extremely low since late 2022. The 200 point drop in rates have not helped sales at all. The increase in prices you are seeing is the median price. If you look at the breakdown in sales by price tier, the median is up because homes priced 500k+ is way outselling homes priced below it.
I understand your point, however his video stated that the stats are already adjusted for seasonality and we are talking about a 14 year low here. I’m sure California is a totally different animal, but it’s not necessarily the same nationwide.
Just like this spring? When we had a whopping 4.2, 4.1, 4.1 million in sales from Mar-May? Furthermore -- August is not typically the LOW in sales volume for the year. Especially when its coupled with higher inventory and lower rates. This is far more than seasonality.
This is also regionally differentiated. The market where I own a home is up more with no inventory. My destination market is down YoY and is a cash buying market (second homes or investments). This means mortgage rates impact my current market but not my destination market. This is just an example of on of millions of housing discussions being held this month.
@@bgorg1 yes…but I would also add that this is almost always the case except for the absurd conditions we saw during the COVID money printer. Local markets are constantly going up down and sideways. I would say that when they are not it’s the exception not the norm. It will be interesting to see how prices are affected with the Fed moves. Keep an eye on the M2 and I would almost guarantee that home prices take the direction of the money supply.
Mortgage rates need to drop down to 3% for it to make sense to buy again, but then there will be another round of price increases, so what we really need is a good crash in prices 20-25% would make most sense, where its not as deep as full on 2008 drop but still enough to entail market towards a better price/value balance.
2008 was also a 50 basis points cut....
But 2008 had over inventory. 2024 low inventory.
September of 2008 to be exact.
@@iishyxvietxboyii12024 does not have low inventory in all places. There are over 100 houses new and old for sale in my 10 mile drive to work. Street after street have 3-4 of the exact same brand new house for sale. Tons of inventory all of Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada.
@@Heather-db6wqDude, you don’t realize how over supply we had in 2008 for a crash…
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 dude I do know BC I bought my house in 08 in Florida a foreclosure. I literally looked at brand new houses with plastic still on the appliances already in foreclosure. They over built them and they are over building now.
House prices are ridiculously way way way too high. They are 3x real value in super bubble areas and 2x real value most other places. If I were a young person trying to buy a house in the USA right now, I'd move to Bolivia before I'd pay these ripoff prices. No No No!
So are eggs, gas prices, utilities, insurance, health care and the list can go on for a long time. Maybe the dollar has just lost too much of it's value and wages have not kept up with iREAL INFLATION rates.
@@rafaelmariscal9170
Not as much as housing. Inflation in housing market has been way higher than all other sectors.
@raffiart5121 Google "home prices in gold" and you will see that home prices are still the same as in the 1980's on the charts. Similar scenario if you price houses in the price of a barrel of oil. In the 80' s it was about $20 and today about $80. A four times increase. Keep in mind that homes today are also being built bigger and with more requirements. I think the real problem is that people have been lied to for a long time about inflation to keep wages low and profits high. You see that reflected in the stock market.
We will be buying when the prices decrease. We will continue to save and invest and wait.
Same
...and pay rent.
"Waiting" isn't free or cheap. And so far it has been the wrong play. It usually is when it comes to real estate.
Exactly what my uncle said 20 years ago. He’s still waiting.
I stepped out of the market in 2022, now interest rate is still much higher than they were back then, and so are home prices. So why do they think I can re-enter the market and buy now? For it to be affordable in my case, both prices and interest rates would need to be lower than they were in 2022. At this point, people who already bought homes can refinance, but that doesn't help bring in new buyers
Sorry, "you snooze, you lose".
@@j.l.salayao8055 😄 ok realtor!
@@j.l.salayao8055 when I couldn't afford,I couldn't buy. It's simple!
@@j.l.salayao8055 I'm willing to bet this will be more if a "slow and steady wins the race" type of scenario when all you fomo rabbits are underwater on your mortgage
Hopefully you were able to save some $ during that time...
FOMO buying is done and unfortunately for those who bought during the FOMO years and found themselves in a home needing substantial renovations, the new construction market is way more expensive than what it used to be, so they have no way out unless another FOMO buyer swoops in and decides to waive inspections like they did in 2021-2023.
They are doomed.
@@theRetainer renovation is expensive we spent close 200k to renovate a flip house and barely made $60k in profit 1 month ago. We dropped the price fast to secure the sale because I don’t want to be the last one holding the bag. Same amount of renovation would be 100-120k before Covid.
Don’t forget gas, electricity and home insurance have doubled since 2021 oh and food prices keep going up. I would be crazy to buy a home right now.
Yep. FOMO buyers are usually the ones holding the bag
I don’t think sales will increase much at all. Rates have come down from the high 8s to mid 6s and it did nothing to help sales. That’s a 200 basis point cut that did nothing.
In fact, sales decreased. 200 basis points in rate reduction, 20-30% more inventory, and sales still decreased. During PEAK buying season.
The U.S. consumer simply can't afford these prices. They must come down or sales with stay below 4m.
I foresee rates will go down to 4-5% by march next year.
@@gamers_united558I don’t see rates falling below 5 long term, but time will tell.
What's interesting about that 200 bps move is the Fed didn't cut rates during that timeframe yet mortgage rates have moved up slightly ever since the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday. Goes to show how mortgage rates account for future expectations of the Fed's moves.
How long will it take todays lower rates to actually show up in closed home sales? Isn't there like a one to two month lag ? Supposedly, there are a lot of buyers waiting for rates to drop into the 5's to get serious about putting in offers. Rates are already in the high 5's.
Good to see! As long as the inventory increases, interest rates slowly fall, and people don't buy as much then 2025 should look even better than this year but only time will tell.
I'll keep everyone posted
Running out of qualified buyers and buyers see a falling knife and don’t want to be the one to catch it. People are now worried about job loss
Is the knife falling up like prices are?
Why? There's too many jobs available in Georgia for all different fields
Good morning everyone. What a fantastic time to get nerdy
Very nerdy video today :)
@@JasonWalter1
Fantastic work as always
Thank you!
As always, we appreciate your data analysis and informative videos. You always provide quality useful stuff! 👍
Glad you like them! Thank you
I like your own analysis, you are good at it.
I appreciate that!
Awesomeness! Great information
Glad you enjoyed it!
Record low sales all while mortgage rates dropped from the high 7s to the low 6s. That a 1.5% drop in mortgage rates so people are not buying while inventory is growing. It's very interesting and still points to the problem that prices are too high for most people to buy.
Great video and interesting hearing and seeing comments about waiting for Rates to come down lower- a one percent decrease would save somebody about $250 a month on a $400,000 home loan
Should that home value go up at an average of even 3% annually that’s getting $12,000 of equity at the cost of $3000 and if you multiply that year over year clearly homeownership has its advantages
I think it’s a combination of higher prices , higher rates, taxes, insurance and the fact that incomes have not caught up with the 60% increase in the home prices over the past four years
Cutting rates is an incentive to wait for better rates as a buyer.
This is the real estate cycle in action. There’s less reason for buyers to move quickly, but more projects are completed every month leading to higher vacancy, all while fear of recession prevents major purchases.
With sales in the tank for more than a year, I don't understand how we're not seeing a mass exodus from real estate agents, and lots of mortgage companies going out of business.... maybe we're just not hearing about it though.
Jason confirmed, prices up by 50% in 5 years! We need a 50 % decrease or at leasr 48%
@@rb194100 50% up dosent equate to 50% down. 50 down would be cheaper then it started, which is still cool! 😎
It’s the price. Not the rates.
The rate affects the amount paid over the life of the loan far more than the original sales price does.
It's shocking how few people on UA-cam seem to realize that.
@@elizabethv7411 It’s actually both, lol. Wouldn’t you want low price and low rates?
@@jaydeeare285 It's shocking that people think that lowering the mortgage rates will make houses cheaper or more affordable.
In central Jersey. One bedroom condos are selling for the same price as studios and one bedrooms in NYC (Manhattan) midtown by Central Park!
The difference is HOAs! How is NYC getting away with HOA of 2,000+ a month!
That’s seems like fraud🤷🏼♀️. The HOA is around 400 a month in NJ, with more roofs and landscaping to care for.
Makes no sense at all.
If you truly look at the data overall in the US, housing prices increased year by year. Long gone are the days of $200,000 homes. This is the new norm and housing is not crashing.
The market is showing signs of improved activity here in SF Bay Area
I'm seeing that in the data too. CA market update coming soon.
Jason you keep trying to imply that price appreciation is coming from the mix of homes sold. You were saying this months ago. I pointed out the case shiller has same house sales so it isn’t affected by the mix. Case shiller lags so you had you couldn’t compare. However now that it has been months we now have case shiller up to June.
So you can look at the June case shiller and see that when you were saying the appreciation was coming from 1M+ homes you were wrong.
And more than likely 3 months from now case shiller will show you wrong now in September.
@@cjenkins79 what does it show. Be specific with details plz
Utah market is still crazy! They stopped building houses around us for 6 months. But now it is right back to it. Our home is only 2 1/2 years old. Not seeing slow down here at all
@@jordanh4127 because Utah is closed to California and they have the money for it. Everyone is fleeing California.
@@JRMaxito very true! It is insane what has happened with home prices here
@@JRMaxito yet, California is still the most populated.

Good time to start low balling offers
"Home sales were disappointing", this framing is kind of irritating. "Disappointing" for who? It makes it sound like we should be worried about real estate companies and how many transactions they make per year off of grossly inflated products
Good callout.
Where I work, a company that provides services to the gov. They just laid off around 50 engineers... and when I was hired 8 years ago I was told by then the nanager the job was very safe, very rare soneone... would be fired... either things changed or economy is in really bad shape
Dont rent houses. Dont prop up the investors buying houses to make themselves rich.
In my corner of Yolo County some homes were taken off the market, then put back on a few weeks later at slightly reduced prices. Presumably to reset DOM. These may still be overpriced for neighborhood and condition.
Is austin a good city for buyers?
Week after week we sit here and act like this is all normal. No fraud, or manipulation. In other news: Senator Hawley tried, yet again, to pass a bill blocking senators from insider trading. lol. 😂
Prices are still too high
Get used to it.
@@jaydeeare285Nan history repeat itself. Nothing goes up forever
@MLagarde0425 Neither one of those clichěs is an economic theory of any kind.
@@MLagarde0425 House prices has been going up since 1800s with a little hiccups here and there…
Everyone gave up and learned to bake bread.
I think home sales could also be down due to buyers waiting for next President.
Music to my ears! 😁
Hope the call went well!
@@JasonWalter1 Jason, call went well! Thanks!
Come to L.A. and you'll see multiple offers on homes and a lot of cash offers.
That’s one city in the entire nation. This video is on nationwide stats. The same could be said on the opposite side of the spectrum if I use Texas or Florida.
@Ja56780 No it is not "one city". Prices are up 3.7% nationally. Not "one city". 🙄
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc Read the original comment. “Come to LA and you’ll see multiple offers and cash offers”. My response was in regards to multiple offers along with cash offers. Not whether or not prices are up or down. Try and focus on the initial statement and response. Your answer has nothing to do with either one.
@@HappyandBlessed-wj7gc This low inventory is killing prices for young buyers.
Mahalo🍍🤙🏽
Good morning!
with interest rates going down - home sales will explode, expect the prices to go up at least another 40 %, remember every percent lower mortgage is 10 % higher in home price , so we should already start looking for new median prices to be atleast 20% higher next month ( there are 2 kind of people in the world one that understand sarcasm and ther other are realtors)
You should never put all Your eggs in one basket, You should have had a backup career. Best of luck to you.
I don’t think prices will go up this ain’t 2021 when people were getting stimulus checks for a down payment. Also a lot of people can’t afford this Gas, electricity, home insurance and property taxes .
Funny some people actually believe this
@@anandjayaram2616 I’m still waiving inspections, esp on commercial buildings! Just bought a 65 year old condo complex in FL sight unseen.
Seasonality, ugh, I need to keep reminding people constantly. Come spring home sales will explode breaking home price records multiple times.
I agree, Short sales and pre foreclosures will be of the hook in Spring.
But that’s not happening. Sales have been extremely low since late 2022. The 200 point drop in rates have not helped sales at all.
The increase in prices you are seeing is the median price. If you look at the breakdown in sales by price tier, the median is up because homes priced 500k+ is way outselling homes priced below it.
I understand your point, however his video stated that the stats are already adjusted for seasonality and we are talking about a 14 year low here. I’m sure California is a totally different animal, but it’s not necessarily the same nationwide.
Just like this spring? When we had a whopping 4.2, 4.1, 4.1 million in sales from Mar-May?
Furthermore -- August is not typically the LOW in sales volume for the year. Especially when its coupled with higher inventory and lower rates.
This is far more than seasonality.
This is more than seasonality. Don’t be delusional
Yet the August Median sales price is UP 3% YoY.
Yes
This is also regionally differentiated. The market where I own a home is up more with no inventory. My destination market is down YoY and is a cash buying market (second homes or investments). This means mortgage rates impact my current market but not my destination market. This is just an example of on of millions of housing discussions being held this month.
@@bgorg1 yes…but I would also add that this is almost always the case except for the absurd conditions we saw during the COVID money printer. Local markets are constantly going up down and sideways. I would say that when they are not it’s the exception not the norm. It will be interesting to see how prices are affected with the Fed moves. Keep an eye on the M2 and I would almost guarantee that home prices take the direction of the money supply.
Mortgage rates need to drop down to 3% for it to make sense to buy again, but then there will be another round of price increases, so what we really need is a good crash in prices 20-25% would make most sense, where its not as deep as full on 2008 drop but still enough to entail market towards a better price/value balance.
@@thekittyspy I think we can all agree that rates for home loans won’t fall below 5 unless the economy is in terrible shape.
@@Ja56780 It’s at 6 RN.
1😊
So you think sales will increase year over year for the remainder of the year since mortgage should remain low for a while? -Curtis Loew