David Rosenberg: Bad Data & Bad Policy Will Force Fed To Scramble To Cut Rates
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- Опубліковано 6 тра 2024
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Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions"
And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets.
For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.
Visit David at www.rosenbergresearch.com/
#jobs #recession2024 #interestrates
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Hey Adam, great shows. Can you please make it your habit to somewhere note the date of recording, to put the interviewee's statements and opinions into timely context as a viewer. Preferably in the corner of the video, the description, or even just verbally in the prelude. Thanks.
GDP is a flawed metric of quality of life and has been obsolete for decades
The poorer people in Europe are getting worse in life quality
They raise interest rates, but then continue their obscene overspending and money printing. Such a mess
Government expenditures end up in the private sector. That means YOU.
They stopped printing money when they started hiking interest rates. That's the literal meaning of quantitative tightening.
yes, my point being why go through this process if you will continue overspending and devaluing the dollar either way. It’s a mess, we wouldn’t be in this spot if our government could run a budget. On a personal note I've worked closely with my advisor to grow my portfolio from $200k to $4.8 million through stock trading because as a businessman, I prefer to invest my money rather than let it sit idle and lose value over time due to inflation.
Despite the ups and downs in the stock market, you've managed to turn your investments into good profits. Could you share the name of your advisor? I have $300k saved up and ready to invest. Letting money sit idle isn’t my style as well, I’d rather put it to work and keep it growing.
She is well known as - Chasity George Charles. please do your own research.
I got zero dollar from the government stimulus check at any level.
that's why we use averages in statistics and not subjective perception/anecdotes
I picked up on that comment too. He stated that everyone received stimulus from the 2T American Rescue Plan.
Not true. We received $0.00.
Good for you. Humble brag?
@@user-pm1xf5uf7v wow you must be rich. Nobody cares.
Same. At work when everyone realized they could get the difference between less than 40 hours in unemployment benefits everyone and I mean everyone besides myself intentionally turned down hours and worked side jobs under the table. Many were making $2,000+ per week (around 40% or more untaxed) during covid. When this happened my boss told me "If you're willing to work the overtime I can keep you busy." I cleared six figures (I paid taxes on it). I met a lot of people in other industries that we work with off and on saying they had similar experiences at their employers.
Employment data in US are manipulated badly. I see major employers in my field posting "fraudulent job offers" notices, I've seen nothing like that in past recession. Lots of layoffs.
Can you explain a little about these fraudulent job offers?
People are speculating that businesses are making fake job postings to make themselves look like they're hireing and make the company look like it's growing or there abusing PPP loans. Idk it's an interesting idea but it sounds like a pain in to deal with.@@standinginthegap7118
Not sure what exactly he is referring to but companies post job listings to see talent flow and also for optics on their health / growth profile
I know in the tech sector, jobs are posted that are never going to be fulfilled because for H1B and certain types of visas, companies must demonstrate there are not sufficient numbers of American workers in order to justify bringing in a foreigner in cheaper.
@@christopherpbatty2138hahaha I call b.s. have you seen real life people who apply for these ghost jobs never get a reply. I've seen hundreds of videos from college grads applying to these jobs by the hundreds and never get anything back. It's the same scans we see in our texts and the WhatsApp scams
David Rosenberg is the GOAT. Great job getting him on.
@@adamblackwell524 lol. Maybe.
I don't hold that against him. it's not like he is Peter Schiff calling for a crash for 15 years. If it becomes 4 years then maybe we can't start to question him. @@adamblackwell524
Thank you this interview. David Rosenberg is one of my favorite speaker.
Please do what you can to get an interview with John Hussman. It's been a while since you interviewed him and his data-driven historical perspective is unrivaled.
Im so broke i cant even pay attention
Cute words yet if it's true, I ask, why are you here and not out chopping wood, washing cars, doing something to not be broke?
Build a rig and make some jack!
Oh, that's right: You are broken therefore you do not KNOW what to do next.
YOLO, this attitude will bring down the USA. Addiction to spending and buying.
It’s the American way 🇺🇸
they handed us the needle
I appreciate Mr. Rosenberg‘s information, but I do want to make one correction, not everyone got stimychecks. As a business owner, I barely was able to get enough out of the PPP program to be able to maintain my staff. I went through Covid and all I got was a 20% reduction in revenues.
This guy is one guest for whom I usually listen to twice.
Wait WHAT!? What does he mean you got a large stimulus check no matter your income!?
You must have been under a rock somewhere. Sorry for your loss.
My wife and I got $275.00. Two hundred seventy-five.
The stimulus had income limits. We got nothing except the higher prices it caused.
💯
The government never learns. Why do we keep voting in the least qualified people to govern our lives
People vote for the best liar that says what they want to hear.
The fed - "DOH! Who'd imagine controlling inflation would be so complicated."
Nobody is saying it is complicated.
This recession that's coming is going to be catastrophe. He's spot on, people haven't changed their spending habits but that's to all change.
Next comes a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis. We are already starting to see all three. Just wait until the either the Fed pivots, or the yield curve reinverts... or even better (if you are short) both of those things happen and inflation is still stupid high. Sounds wonderful... lets go.
Thank you for bringing David on. He seems to be looking at the same behind the scenes data that Danille DiMartino Booth speaks of and I appreciate their honest, no-nonsense demeanor. I don't want a sugar coated spin, just the truth even if it's not what I'd like to hear.
Spain is not outperforming compared with Europe, it's coming from a lower shit hole and took way longer to recover the base level.
David is one of the best. Always great to listen to him.
Yep, going up 25% by year end will be shocking to you. But not anyone who understands what's going on
@55:55 "STEAK STEAK STEAK STEAK" 😂
Came to the comments just for this 😂
If you're also going to be flooding the market with more stimulus wouldn't that be inflationary. Wouldn't we be in an era of hyperinflation
Yes
For most people they will have to borrow to get the stimulus. That could be hard in a recession and unemployed.
STEAK STEAK STEAK STEAK STEAK STEAK.... sounds like it's lunchtime ;-)
haha. steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak steak
Great video Adam! Always good to hear from Mr Rosenberg. Keep up the great work Adam! See you in the next one. Take care!
I don't know why you think these rates will go down, cause when the collapse comes, stocks will collapse and bonds will collapse too cause everyone is going to have to pour their money into commodities and hard assets cause TINA. Which means more inflation just by demand for real stuff rather than fake paper assets.
Exactly
Duel mandates the Fed cannot just focus on inflation like they have they are required by law to take into account unemployment which needs a rate cut to help it
@@randywhelchel4674 oh, they will try. But they only control the FFR. If inflation rises, no one putting money with them at 1%. That's why Fed is always late, cause they follow, can't move it where it doesn't want to go.
@@randywhelchel4674 wrong. Fed has constantly shown it will not allow hyperinflation. If employment keeps inflation too high, a recession is necessary.
@prolific1518 They absolutely need a higher rate of inflation in order to try and inflate the debt away, but they won't tell anyone that. They need inflation, not deflation.
Thanks Adam!
It's always good to hear from David Rosenberg. He's always spot on about the 'pulse' of the US economy. I think he is one of the very few right now who are brave enough to talk any sense and basically talk the truth.
Thank you, David. Awesome.👏
How's that long bond trade going, Rosie?
he has been wrong for over 22 years. found an article in 2015 that called him a permabear for over 12 years. Yet he continues to rant and rave about the economy and debt. He is stuck on his thesis and will never give up. he will eventually be right in the distant future. at this point, his views are considered a joke by investors trying to make money.
I think he always underestimated the government's impetus to keep things afloat by destroying the currency doing as much fiscal as it is necessary. People that are from south america have seen this time and again, and if there is one place you don't want to be is long fixed bonds
@@kealgu you're not an investor. You're a gambler hoping Biden continues to save you. Keep betting on Biden lol
@prolific1518 Why is everything political nowadays? I dont follow your logic that i must be a Biden supporter because i dont invest in long bonds and believe the economy is going to collapse? I have been a fiscal conservative and a Republican my whole life.
Politics are literally controling the economy rn, you need to take more then the number into account@@kealgu
Thank you Adam and David Rosenberg! Adam, you always have epic segments but this one was an absolute gift from the gods. I'm a new but enthusiastic fan of David Rosenberg, I took notes and I will listen to this twice!
I sincerely appreciate David Rosenberg’s perspective! One of my absolute favorite guests on Adam’s podcast!
My takeaways from Mr. Rosenberg are that India is the place to go long, and the US economy, ultimately, won’t avoid recession.
The banking deal better get sacked, its basicly an oil drum in a burning building of debt.
Rosie is tremendeous, thanks to both of you for getting this great conversation out here!!
My portfolio for the past 30 years has always been self managed and I own 3 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK:A) which I bought in at about $17,000 during the mid 90s, I’m currently liquidating some of these positions to incoporate new Gen. Stocks, but am I better off re-investing into Gold as it seems stocks are a little too unstable right now.
Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account.
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1,250,000 in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.
Impressive can you share more info?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Camille Anne Hector for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Putting home equity loans on steroids..oh brother. They are also enthusiastic about expanding the ability to take loan(s) from retirement accounts.
It’s all dollar deterioration, overspending, reckless management of our government.
In our homes we would be cutoff and reprimanded by our banks.
I haven’t watched yet but I’m so happy and excited that Rosie is here. Thank you for bringing him here. I love Rosie
We need a rate increase. Inflation is killing middle class.
Then you can complain more about mortgage rates
@@MrSteeDooif you're catching on. The ones with enough to buy a house want rates lower. The ones who are being slaughtered by inflation want rates higher.
@@Immigrationsituation And the people like me who have a fixed rate mortgage are seeing my wages rise strongly while my housing costs remain the same.
High interest rates are worse then inflation.
@@rustyscrapper huh. What are you talking about.mhigh interest rate is great for smart responsible people who save and don't have debt. Also for all the ones living check to paycheck inflation is killing them, they could care less about high interest rates because they are just trying to buy food and survive.
Like your channel. Like your guest. Thank you!
Thank you Adam
Great interview!
Great interview. Thankyou very much!!!
David thank you much appreciated!
Great job with this interview Adam. Mr Rosenberg is such an interesting guest and he seems to LOVE to talk. Most of the time when his is interviewed the hosts try to direct the conversation but this expert seems to do so much better when nobody steps on his words. Loved every minute of it! Have him on again if you can. And tell him he needs to get some more books, i dont think he has enough in his background.
Good review
My portfolio 20% gold, 20% BTC, 40% 20 year Treasuries 20%cash.
Good stuff!
The crash comes after the funds rate pivot. That’s how it’s been in the past.
Growth is in the war economy.
Great guest. Thanks
Always great to hear David's insights! Excellent interview. Thank you, David and Adam.
A wise and articulate guest, very interesting discussion, definitely have him back. The cooking of the books is so egregious.
Re consumer spending - it's a reflection of just how much of a high consumption mindset we live in now, that even if we can't afford something, we don't see that as any reason not to have it. My parents never had credit cards, and started saving for their pensions in their 20s. As kids we always had a lodger living with us just to offset expenses.
I remember visiting the US about 5 years ago and being struck by the amount of junk there is for sale in a store like Walmart. All this cheap flimsy tat from China, being floated across thousands of miles of sea, disrupting whales and other sea life as it travels, all for what? So we can fill our garages with clutter. I am not the model of perfection, but my motto is pretty much buy second hand if I need to, and live within my means, making cuts where I need to (when gas trebled after Russia invaded Ukraine I got used to a colder house), but a lot of people just ran up debt and eventually energy companies passed their debt onto other customers. Anyway. Maybe a topic for a rant with Lance.
Rosie is the man! Looking forward to this interview!!
Is he? 2 full years talking this way. Eventually he'll be right.
Great interview. David Rosenberg has more data points at his finger tips than anyone I've ever heard... and I am a business news junkie.
I ALWAYS (!) enjoy listening to David Rosenberg's REALISTIC invvestment insights - thank you.
Very interesting discussion.
Thanks !
Great interview.
Dr Jordan Petersen and David Rosenberg, two great thinkers who have distilled some of their thinking down to 12 rules for the rest of us to contemplate. Thanks to David for trying to steer us lay people in a good direction, arming us with some of the principles necessary for sound investing, it's much appreciated.
Importing 10 million+ renters also doesn’t help
I live near toronto too, basic construction work on east side is next to nothing, if you live over there you have to drive 1 to 2 hours to site. Construction isn't what it was a few years ago.
There's a couple of issues I'm not with Mr Rosenberg here, Japan stocks might be rising but the currency is falling and it's easy to see the rise in Yen, and harder to see it against USD. The other issue is the Fed cutting rates. It's not going to happen because of the inflationary pressures which are baked in now. On top of that the commodities markets have been green for quite some time meaning price rises are also in the pipe. There is a chance of a small cut in the Autumn / Fall but the Fed might have been scared off by previous months data.
Excellent interview Adam . Well done . We all ought to listen much more to market analysts like David R. who really do their homework, and he surely does. I know of no other who have more insight into the true data, and market fundamentals
I suspect we won’t however ,as he will never tell us what we most want to hear. Great job. Keep up the good work!
Dr. Bob T
wow - so nice to hear from a real expert. Thanks guys
Great interview, and details.
love Rosie! great sense of (dry) humor too!!
Would be nice to hear him explain what happened to his inflation is transitory prediction. At the time he seemed so confident about it.
Great Interview! Rosie is above and beyond with knowledge, wisdom, and history that does repeat itself!
#RECESSION 2024 and 2025
I think the unemployment rate will be juiced to show bad numbers and thus the FED will have the mandate to drop the base rate. Even the FED must realise it needs to be 6-12months ahead of the curve to counteract it. The credit card companies WILL clamp down of limits etc, and it will happen quickly. Loss of confidence and a guaranteed recession beyond a soft landing. The FED should guide expectations, 4% unemployment rate will trigger a 0.5% rate cut. 5% a further 1% etc. This will assist corporates knowing as demand gets worst the cost of capital will get less etc.
what a great channel..keep it going adam.. without a doubt the best interviewer on youtube.. always look
forward to new shows even if i dont agree with the guests who mostly seem gloom and doom as the mkt just
keep moving along.. maybe they will be right one day..
I suppose, as a millennial, I am doing pretty good saving approximately 15% of my net pay per month. Good job, good pay, above the median, no debt, but we can't buy a house unless we spend 45% of our net pay. Renting is 60% cheaper. It's frustrating.
Times are not always going to align with your desires. You will learn this as you get older.
Well done, keep saving! ❤
@@MrSteeDoo I agree wholeheartedly. Life is all about timing.
@a.r.4416 Thanks! I'm on the whole, "set it, and forget it" kick. I've found this strategy to be effective and have rarely ever needed to pull some of it back.
Thanks Dave great question about 2nd mortgage for fha loans
Once every decade and a half, Rosie is correct.
And that day is here..
@@draymond5067 was what he thought last year!
Excellent and clear explanations of can kicking
Fantastic speaker and Adam is very easy on the eyes! 😍
When the gains in the Nikkei are priced in US dollar terms, it's not good.
Fed cuts rates but gold and energy goes UP.
I like rosy but he’s been so wrong for so long thats it’s becoming the farcical.
He is right about hiring at least for jobs paying over 100k
I'm curious, what is the scorce for the statement, capex spending is going down.
Someone needs to ask Jared Bernstein if he understands the Reinhart and Rogoff theory. Berstein doesn't even have an economics degree. He has a masters in Sociology with a minor in music. Essentially, he can play the sad trombone while the proverbial titanic sinks into the ocean
Yes! You need to google his interview with MMT proponent Stephanie Kelton. She knew how to pick someone who has absolutely no idea about how the bond market works- the Chief Economist for the Biden Administration. You can't make this stuff up.
bernSTEIN is in government simply because of his name. They always find a way to get involved in a country's financial system.
Reinhart and Rogoff were proven to be fools because of a simple excel error. Didn't you know that?
Rates need to be above ten percent. It's the only way to curb the institutionalized ang government mafecence.
Adam salivating talking about the lag effect :D LOVE ADAM
Steak? Did you say steak? No, mistake. Oh, now you got me all excited. 55:41
he's been wrong for 4 years and counting
The best of the best.
Rosy is the best voice on the economy.
Adam has learned how to interview!
Good for David: He's finally changing his tune to reflect reality.
I think a lot of people spent their stimulus to pay off debts.
A huge reason for home supply being decreased is BlackRock.
Rosie is amazing.
Do valuations really matter anymore?
They don’t until they do.
The last bit was rich! Sort of: 'Listen to someone who disagrees with you... instead of seeking to find and highlight those who agree with you'.
Imagine if we actually did this in our lives and 'Leadership' did as well.
"I don't believe Mother Nature died." --David R.
They could use motto that on the Weather Channel too, every hurricane season.
Others pointed out - the stimulus check absolutely were tied to income.
If they drop rates inflation will tick up so I don't know what you think that inflation will go down to their target or even below. They should be raising rates to 8% all of us consumers can use a little deflation for a couple years
Some good books back there. I like what he reads.
I routinely refer to the phenomenon of recession predictions being off by 1 or more years as "The 9 Lives of the US Consumer." As been observed US consumers expend all financial tools before recession is allowed to proceed. Expenditure of discretionary income, savings, credit cards, small loans, home equity, 401(k) loans, changing jobs to access HSA balances, etc. All monies need to be expended before predictions take shape. Almost every recession prediction I have heard since just before The Great Recession have been off by 1 or more years to the consternation of analysts.
this guy is very smart. much smarter than me. but he's been so wrong for so long that i'm not sure what to believe
I guess the boy who cried Wolf eventually met that wolf, after everyone had stopped believing him