Always enjoy your videos. I might have mentioned when we chatted that I used to think you were a know it all. But as time went on certain things began to click & realise once you get involved in something you enjoy you can try certain things & see what happens. I was like many new traders who simply wanted someone to tell me how to make money but it really isn’t about that. It’s not realistic when you think about it Your videos really have made me realise it’s me against myself / the market. Am there is no harm in trying to master the simple things & get good at them
Many thanks for leaving that. I think it's an essential point that you make, so I'll make this a sticky post. That last paragraph you made there, is successful trading in a nutshell.
Excellent advice. Attempting too much too fast is my personal bugbear. Reasonable targets brings that under control. It appears that in trading the biggest obstacle is yourself.
Thank you Peter, top advice and guidance as always. Particularly liked the section on volume, I will be definitely scaling up on how many markets I trade this year
Thanks for the video and the encouragement, Peter ; I had a dabble with Bet Angel before Christmas - with very middling success - and few losses where I didn't get out of the market quickly enough... I am aiming to become more systematic in my approach this year ; as a software developer with a maths degree, I ought to be able to do this 🙂 In mathematical terms, what you're describing here is an application of the intermediate value theorem ; if the odds start at one point and end at another point, it must pass through all the points in between and that's where the profit is 🙂 Again, the approach we want is a "positive expectation value" ; accept there will be some losses but understand that your wins will in the long term outweight them. Hoping to become a much more active trader this year - as nice little second income would be useful 🙂
Your comment is like a breath of fresh air; thank you. That's precisely what I'm talking about. There are many ways to achieve that in this market, either through a strategy-based approach, market selection or clever execution. So plenty of things to explore.
Exactly, you have to first accept that you cant/won’t get it right all the time You execute based on a series of events that you are looking for & attempt to outweigh the losses
Hello Peter What ive noticed with Betfair exchange is the difference in prices compared to normal bookies like bet365, Ladbrokes etc.etc. I was looking at prices for a golfer to win in the usa tournament starting tomorrow and he was 200.0 on Betfair exchange but Ladbrokes had 60/1 !!! And bet365 100/1 ! Even if you are scared to start trading, the odds Betfair give for a straight forward bet are amazing! He was also 200.0 in the last tournament he played 2 weeks ago and he was in contention from the start and in joint lead after 3 rounds and trading at 16 . So a simple lay bet would have guaranteed a profit after 2nd or 3rd round. £10 bet at 200 then lay at 16 lets say £100. To me that's having a normal bet ive always done but now Betfair allows me to guarantee a profit. By the way he came 7th in the end 😢
Y, the overround is almost non-existant on exchanges, so you get some meaty prices. Often you will see something hundreds on the exchange and only 66/1 on course. That's about the biggest price they will offer unless it really has no chance at all. I pick up the odd 1000 each year with a backing strategy.
Hello, thank you for the video. Do you have any suggestions regarding starting a spreadsheet to log all my trades? What would you log if you were going to start trading at random? For instance would you suggest putting in things like bsp, exit and entry points or would you start really simple? Thanks
There are a few suggestions on the forum that may interest you, but you can also do this through automation now as well - forum.betangel.com/viewforum.php?f=60
Surely if you take a risk and you hope something might happen then that feels to me like a gamble that I hope works out then I won't be happy when it goes the wrong way. I gamble the wrong way 40,000 times and I'm bankrupt. I get anxious trying to guess what might happen 😅.
Hello Peter. I hope you are keeping well. Could you do a video relating to trying to predict the correct score for a football match from the odds that are given for the win-draw-win for that match.
Prices will be pretty volatile in this area, so some of the suitability will be linked to your trading style. If you are looking for markets that move quite a bit, then this is where you will find that movement.
Similar to Bollinger bands, they measure the volatility by looking at the standard deviation. It's an excellent way to determine if the price is about to break out. You will find them called 'price envelope' in the advanced chart settings.
I didn't believe this when I started trading but by disaster on financial markets taught me a lot about why this is the case. So I had a leg up when I started trading on Betfair, and I eventually figured out just how it was important a few years into my journey. So much so, that I changed the way I traded.
Like a casino ward said. If the people didn't want so much they would walk out from this doors with some money in their pockets. That is true the hardest skill to master is the mindset
hi peter, thanks for the video which is always very useful for us traders, but explain to me how to trade even just 20,000 markets in a year? I trade 100 operations a month and maybe it corresponds to 120 markets. Thanks
I trade manually and automatically, so a good chunk of markets are automated now, so that's a significant contribution. There is an element of double counting as well, to be honest. If trade a market manually but have some automation running, that would be two markets on my Betfair statement.
Peter, at 11:05 minus of the video, you said 100,000 markets. Do you really mean market or do you mean 100,000 trades made in few markets. For example, in a live football match, there are only 50 maximum markets at given time. And they are all correlated with goals. So for my football example, won't it be easier to complete more trades in fewer market then 100,000 markets? 😊
You can do either. I think it's just easier for people to get the concept of 100,000 markets. You can do quite low-risk trades 100,000 times by waiting or an opportunity. But multiple trades in one market are related somewhat.
ok, i see the issue in my logic there. You are right the multiple trade in one market is related specially in my live football trading example. I think I start to understand you point of 100,000 markets. Thanks for clarify this for me ❤
Peter can I ask you a question. I just did a bet at Betfair SP on greyhound racing and the bet was only partially matched? How can this happen? I place a bet of £10 at betfair SP and then when I looked at the market after it had won at 6.2 it said that only £2.34 was matched? How can this happen when you're betting at betfair SP??? Please someone explain as it's really vexed me. It's happened to my before but I assume I'd just inputted the wrong stake in on that occasion but this time I definitely put £10 as I do it for every bet.
@@betangeltv it was a back bet. It just didn't get matched. I went on betfair helpdesk and they told me that in low liquidity events sometimes the money will lapse and not get matched? How is this possible? As I understood it, the ratio between back money and lay money in the SP bets, dictates the price that the bets get matched at... kind of like pool betting. So all the money is matched? But now I'm thinking it doesn't work like that. I'm starting to think the SP is dictated by the price of the animal at the moment the event turns in play, then all the 'lay' money at betfair sp is sort of offset against the back money at that price, then if there is a surplus of back bets and not enough lay bets, the back bets just lapse and don't get matched? Is that the case? I want to understand how the betfair sp technically works because I've been working on a system that uses betfair sp primarily but this one hit me hard as it was a 5/1 winner and I only got like 20% of my stake matched. Very frustrating. Thanks for any input or clarification.
Some of SP if formed from the money left outstanding at the point of resolution. So perhaps it was a very gappy market. I can't say I've experienced this before.
@@betangeltv That surprises me because it happened twice more yesterday. Seems to be happening to me daily. One saved me money, one again cost me. One was on a 4/1 where just over half my bet got resolved at SP (£5.62 out of £10) and the other was a 7/1 that got only pennies matched of my £10 SP stake but thankfully that one lost. So yeah I'm suspecting you haven't experienced it because you're not doing very low liquidity markets at BF SP.
Trading is about Knowledge, Risk Management and Discipline. Try not to lose all your money. Bet you can't. The purpose of Trading is to transfer your money to people who know the market inside out. In fact they've even automated it -you've got little chance of leaving your job and trading full time.
Positive people find opportunities and negative people, problems. It's really easy to come up with a list of why something doesn't work, but that's not your objective when trading. When it comes to trading, you are constantly on the hunt for opportunities.
It may never kick in as you have three hurdles to jump over, winning amount, winning rate and commission paid. But the upper rate if you hit all three criteria would be £250k, so two years. But it would almost never be that.
So if you had an edge or a strategy that was profitable what would happen if you told people how it worked exactly? If the strategy made £5k profits in a year how much would you sell it for? Peter has given you starting points & roads to go down & try, unfortunately we have to think for ourselves & see if we can uncover an edge through trial & error. There are many videos that explain where to start / how to start. Once you spend time in the market you WILL begin to uncover things I honest though I would never do the above & that I just wanted someone to tell me how to make money from Betfair
Betfair trading is like a gold rush. Almost all miners waste their time and lose their shirt . All the money is made by people that supply the miners. There is NOTHING in this video that is of any use to anybody, ( unless you understood the oblique instruction to never place insurance bets, which I agree with btw ). Unless you have information before anyone else, nobody can trade price "volatility" successfully over time, because to do so you have to be able to predict the future ("anticipate something is about to happen"). I "anticipated" that Spurs wouldn't hold on to a 0-2 lead over City ( no psychic powers required ) and made profit. I then "anticipated" that there would be goals in the Liverpool v Chelsea and Palace v Newcastle matches and lost a little more than I'd won. Financial death by a thousand cuts. Keep away.
Sorry, it hasn't worked for you, but I think most people know where I'm coming from. I won't get any revenue for this video, and I'd be surprised if I pick up any subscribers on UA-cam or Bet Angel. I'm fortunate to be able to say what I think without being clouded by any interests. So I will talk about what has worked for me very successfully over a long period of time. Take it or leave it. The gold rush, as you put it, was for the margin available on the exchange. Effectively it was a revenue share of the losing side of the equation with Betfair. Betfair has made a lot of money, and people trading on Betfair have made a lot of money. The picks and shovels analogy fails miserably when you apply it to specific scenarios. In this case, virtually none of the software vendors made any 'real' money. Especially if you fully cost development costs. That's why Betfair did the APi rather than doing it themselves. Everybody thought the gold rush would be to provide the picks and shovels, and so many people rushed in there to provide them that there was a massive surplus of shovels. In aggregate, I know that Bet Angel users have made more than Bet Angel as a company has turned over. If you look at my P&L from the Melbourne Cup meeting, you must be able to see why this is the case. My profit from just that week was the equivalent of 46 years of Bet Angel subscriptions. Just one person amongst many of our customers to make money that week. Of course, not everybody will make money. Still, trading as I regularly describe has presented the best opportunity for people to make something from their interest in sports for the first time ever. As somebody that actually had the balls to put their own money into it to prove a point. I'm tired now of trying to argue the point. You either get it or you don't, which is why I did this blog post: - www.betfairtradingblog.com/what-im-giving-up-this-year/
I've put in, and lost, THOUSANDS, over many YEARS, including subscribing to your excellent software. The fact that you say you make very little out of subscriptions after all these years suggests that few subscribers stick around for very long and there is but one reason for that. What is the average life of a Bet Angel subscription?
I can tell you had a negative experience from your original post. As I pointed out, longevity or subscribers is not an issue for Bet Angel as a business. It's just that the market determines we can't charge much for it and that the amount people make using it far exceeds the cost of the software. I've seen the numbers from Betfair, it's a fact. This is just the classic circular pointless argument that I've gone through a thousands times. I'm really bored of doing this. You either see the opportunity or you don't. I realise you have had a negative experience, I had to go through the same gut wrenching experience when I tried to trade financials all those years ago. I couldn't do, lost money and therefore thought it was impossible. It took me some time to see the light. I realise it's difficult if you tried and failed. But maybe take a break and revisit it and you'll understand what I am trying to say.
Always enjoy your videos. I might have mentioned when we chatted that I used to think you were a know it all. But as time went on certain things began to click & realise once you get involved in something you enjoy you can try certain things & see what happens.
I was like many new traders who simply wanted someone to tell me how to make money but it really isn’t about that. It’s not realistic when you think about it
Your videos really have made me realise it’s me against myself / the market. Am there is no harm in trying to master the simple things & get good at them
Many thanks for leaving that.
I think it's an essential point that you make, so I'll make this a sticky post.
That last paragraph you made there, is successful trading in a nutshell.
Excellent advice. Attempting too much too fast is my personal bugbear. Reasonable targets brings that under control. It appears that in trading the biggest obstacle is yourself.
I often say this also, that the biggest battle is with yourself. It catches so many people out.
cheers for the vote of confidence
Thanks. Just started using Bet Angel and I love it!
Glad you enjoy it!
A lot of value here, Peter. Thanks for sharing.
Glad it was helpful!
Interesting and informative as always. Thank you Peter.
Very welcome
Thanks Peter very help full and easy to understand video
Thank you
Great video, thank you.
Good advice again Peter
Volatility and risk are the glorious uncertainty. 😊
It took me ages to work out that volatility is your friend and not your enemy when trading. But a lot of people never fully understand that.
Brilliant video Peter great advice simple, clear and concise. Many Thanks
👍
13:10 0.11p i love it 😂. joking aside some lovely profits in there peter
Thank you for the video Pete
You are very welcome
Thank you Peter, top advice and guidance as always. Particularly liked the section on volume, I will be definitely scaling up on how many markets I trade this year
Glad it was helpful!
Thanks for the video and the encouragement, Peter ; I had a dabble with Bet Angel before Christmas - with very middling success - and few losses where I didn't get out of the market quickly enough...
I am aiming to become more systematic in my approach this year ; as a software developer with a maths degree, I ought to be able to do this 🙂
In mathematical terms, what you're describing here is an application of the intermediate value theorem ; if the odds start at one point and end at another point, it must pass through all the points in between and that's where the profit is 🙂
Again, the approach we want is a "positive expectation value" ; accept there will be some losses but understand that your wins will in the long term outweight them.
Hoping to become a much more active trader this year - as nice little second income would be useful 🙂
Your comment is like a breath of fresh air; thank you. That's precisely what I'm talking about.
There are many ways to achieve that in this market, either through a strategy-based approach, market selection or clever execution.
So plenty of things to explore.
Exactly, you have to first accept that you cant/won’t get it right all the time
You execute based on a series of events that you are looking for & attempt to outweigh the losses
So many people just don't get that, yet it's core to the fundamentals of trading.
Hello Peter
What ive noticed with Betfair exchange is the difference in prices compared to normal bookies like bet365, Ladbrokes etc.etc.
I was looking at prices for a golfer to win in the usa tournament starting tomorrow and he was 200.0 on Betfair exchange but Ladbrokes had 60/1 !!! And bet365 100/1 !
Even if you are scared to start trading, the odds Betfair give for a straight forward bet are amazing! He was also 200.0 in the last tournament he played 2 weeks ago and he was in contention from the start and in joint lead after 3 rounds and trading at 16 . So a simple lay bet would have guaranteed a profit after 2nd or 3rd round. £10 bet at 200 then lay at 16 lets say £100. To me that's having a normal bet ive always done but now Betfair allows me to guarantee a profit. By the way he came 7th in the end 😢
Y, the overround is almost non-existant on exchanges, so you get some meaty prices. Often you will see something hundreds on the exchange and only 66/1 on course. That's about the biggest price they will offer unless it really has no chance at all.
I pick up the odd 1000 each year with a backing strategy.
❤like to your green hair😊 look stylish Pete
I sometimes think of dying it green so I don't have to fiddle with the chroma key.
Hello, thank you for the video. Do you have any suggestions regarding starting a spreadsheet to log all my trades? What would you log if you were going to start trading at random? For instance would you suggest putting in things like bsp, exit and entry points or would you start really simple? Thanks
There are a few suggestions on the forum that may interest you, but you can also do this through automation now as well - forum.betangel.com/viewforum.php?f=60
Surely if you take a risk and you hope something might happen then that feels to me like a gamble that I hope works out then I won't be happy when it goes the wrong way. I gamble the wrong way 40,000 times and I'm bankrupt. I get anxious trying to guess what might happen 😅.
Hello Peter. I hope you are keeping well. Could you do a video relating to trying to predict the correct score for a football match from the odds that are given for the win-draw-win for that match.
Never really looked at that, but will make a note.
Great video Peter.
Many thanks for your comment
Is it advisable for a beginner to only trade really safe heavy favorites that trade very narrowly around one price (e.g 1.80 +- 0.15)?
Prices will be pretty volatile in this area, so some of the suitability will be linked to your trading style.
If you are looking for markets that move quite a bit, then this is where you will find that movement.
what are the black lines on the betfair replica chart?
Similar to Bollinger bands, they measure the volatility by looking at the standard deviation. It's an excellent way to determine if the price is about to break out.
You will find them called 'price envelope' in the advanced chart settings.
Thanks!
Hi peter
There’s a saying 20% is strategy and 80%mind set, from your experience as an successful trader would that be correct?
I didn't believe this when I started trading but by disaster on financial markets taught me a lot about why this is the case.
So I had a leg up when I started trading on Betfair, and I eventually figured out just how it was important a few years into my journey.
So much so, that I changed the way I traded.
Like a casino ward said. If the people didn't want so much they would walk out from this doors with some money in their pockets. That is true the hardest skill to master is the mindset
hi peter, thanks for the video which is always very useful for us traders, but explain to me how to trade even just 20,000 markets in a year? I trade 100 operations a month and maybe it corresponds to 120 markets. Thanks
I trade manually and automatically, so a good chunk of markets are automated now, so that's a significant contribution.
There is an element of double counting as well, to be honest. If trade a market manually but have some automation running, that would be two markets on my Betfair statement.
Peter, at 11:05 minus of the video, you said 100,000 markets. Do you really mean market or do you mean 100,000 trades made in few markets. For example, in a live football match, there are only 50 maximum markets at given time. And they are all correlated with goals. So for my football example, won't it be easier to complete more trades in fewer market then 100,000 markets? 😊
You can do either.
I think it's just easier for people to get the concept of 100,000 markets. You can do quite low-risk trades 100,000 times by waiting or an opportunity.
But multiple trades in one market are related somewhat.
ok, i see the issue in my logic there. You are right the multiple trade in one market is related specially in my live football trading example. I think I start to understand you point of 100,000 markets. Thanks for clarify this for me ❤
Peter can I ask you a question. I just did a bet at Betfair SP on greyhound racing and the bet was only partially matched? How can this happen? I place a bet of £10 at betfair SP and then when I looked at the market after it had won at 6.2 it said that only £2.34 was matched? How can this happen when you're betting at betfair SP??? Please someone explain as it's really vexed me. It's happened to my before but I assume I'd just inputted the wrong stake in on that occasion but this time I definitely put £10 as I do it for every bet.
Was this a back or lay bet?
@@betangeltv it was a back bet. It just didn't get matched. I went on betfair helpdesk and they told me that in low liquidity events sometimes the money will lapse and not get matched? How is this possible? As I understood it, the ratio between back money and lay money in the SP bets, dictates the price that the bets get matched at... kind of like pool betting. So all the money is matched? But now I'm thinking it doesn't work like that. I'm starting to think the SP is dictated by the price of the animal at the moment the event turns in play, then all the 'lay' money at betfair sp is sort of offset against the back money at that price, then if there is a surplus of back bets and not enough lay bets, the back bets just lapse and don't get matched? Is that the case? I want to understand how the betfair sp technically works because I've been working on a system that uses betfair sp primarily but this one hit me hard as it was a 5/1 winner and I only got like 20% of my stake matched. Very frustrating. Thanks for any input or clarification.
Some of SP if formed from the money left outstanding at the point of resolution. So perhaps it was a very gappy market. I can't say I've experienced this before.
@@betangeltv That surprises me because it happened twice more yesterday. Seems to be happening to me daily. One saved me money, one again cost me. One was on a 4/1 where just over half my bet got resolved at SP (£5.62 out of £10) and the other was a 7/1 that got only pennies matched of my £10 SP stake but thankfully that one lost. So yeah I'm suspecting you haven't experienced it because you're not doing very low liquidity markets at BF SP.
Trading is about Knowledge, Risk Management and Discipline. Try not to lose all your money. Bet you can't.
The purpose of Trading is to transfer your money to people who know the market inside out. In fact they've even automated it -you've got little chance of leaving your job and trading full time.
Positive people find opportunities and negative people, problems.
It's really easy to come up with a list of why something doesn't work, but that's not your objective when trading.
When it comes to trading, you are constantly on the hunt for opportunities.
If you made £1000 a month, how long would it be before 40 percent commission kicked in
It may never kick in as you have three hurdles to jump over, winning amount, winning rate and commission paid.
But the upper rate if you hit all three criteria would be £250k, so two years. But it would almost never be that.
How to win 1xbet😢
🙋🏼♂️
everyone knows what we suppose to do , but how to do it is the question , and nobody will tell us that. this was a big video of saying nothing
I've also told you how to do it in a vast range of videos talking in great depth about individual sports, strategies and tactics.
So if you had an edge or a strategy that was profitable what would happen if you told people how it worked exactly? If the strategy made £5k profits in a year how much would you sell it for?
Peter has given you starting points & roads to go down & try, unfortunately we have to think for ourselves & see if we can uncover an edge through trial & error. There are many videos that explain where to start / how to start. Once you spend time in the market you WILL begin to uncover things
I honest though I would never do the above & that I just wanted someone to tell me how to make money from Betfair
I often feel I've overshared on certain things TBH.
Betfair trading is like a gold rush. Almost all miners waste their time and lose their shirt . All the money is made by people that supply the miners. There is NOTHING in this video that is of any use to anybody, ( unless you understood the oblique instruction to never place insurance bets, which I agree with btw ). Unless you have information before anyone else, nobody can trade price "volatility" successfully over time, because to do so you have to be able to predict the future ("anticipate something is about to happen"). I "anticipated" that Spurs wouldn't hold on to a 0-2 lead over City ( no psychic powers required ) and made profit. I then "anticipated" that there would be goals in the Liverpool v Chelsea and Palace v Newcastle matches and lost a little more than I'd won. Financial death by a thousand cuts. Keep away.
Sorry, it hasn't worked for you, but I think most people know where I'm coming from.
I won't get any revenue for this video, and I'd be surprised if I pick up any subscribers on UA-cam or Bet Angel.
I'm fortunate to be able to say what I think without being clouded by any interests. So I will talk about what has worked for me very successfully over a long period of time.
Take it or leave it.
The gold rush, as you put it, was for the margin available on the exchange. Effectively it was a revenue share of the losing side of the equation with Betfair. Betfair has made a lot of money, and people trading on Betfair have made a lot of money.
The picks and shovels analogy fails miserably when you apply it to specific scenarios. In this case, virtually none of the software vendors made any 'real' money. Especially if you fully cost development costs. That's why Betfair did the APi rather than doing it themselves.
Everybody thought the gold rush would be to provide the picks and shovels, and so many people rushed in there to provide them that there was a massive surplus of shovels.
In aggregate, I know that Bet Angel users have made more than Bet Angel as a company has turned over. If you look at my P&L from the Melbourne Cup meeting, you must be able to see why this is the case.
My profit from just that week was the equivalent of 46 years of Bet Angel subscriptions. Just one person amongst many of our customers to make money that week.
Of course, not everybody will make money. Still, trading as I regularly describe has presented the best opportunity for people to make something from their interest in sports for the first time ever.
As somebody that actually had the balls to put their own money into it to prove a point. I'm tired now of trying to argue the point. You either get it or you don't, which is why I did this blog post: -
www.betfairtradingblog.com/what-im-giving-up-this-year/
I've put in, and lost, THOUSANDS, over many YEARS, including subscribing to your excellent software. The fact that you say you make very little out of subscriptions after all these years suggests that few subscribers stick around for very long and there is but one reason for that. What is the average life of a Bet Angel subscription?
I can tell you had a negative experience from your original post.
As I pointed out, longevity or subscribers is not an issue for Bet Angel as a business. It's just that the market determines we can't charge much for it and that the amount people make using it far exceeds the cost of the software.
I've seen the numbers from Betfair, it's a fact.
This is just the classic circular pointless argument that I've gone through a thousands times. I'm really bored of doing this.
You either see the opportunity or you don't.
I realise you have had a negative experience, I had to go through the same gut wrenching experience when I tried to trade financials all those years ago.
I couldn't do, lost money and therefore thought it was impossible. It took me some time to see the light.
I realise it's difficult if you tried and failed. But maybe take a break and revisit it and you'll understand what I am trying to say.