Great video Sven! I learned from you that you can't argue with math. Its frustrating to see wonderful businesses with low discount/return potential, but thats life 😂
Your strategy is understandable and solid. The reason most people don’t like it is because you cannot make big money with this strategy in a short amount of time, which is what most people dream of. You cannot even make a living out of it while growing your capital at the same time, unless you have a huge amount of money! You either have to work on the side, inherit a lot, or make it big elsewhere/elsehow in order to use your strategy for growing wealth.
Your last video on valueing s&p stocks i saw comments that it wasnt educational and you used to be educational 😳 Thats been one of my favourite things with this channel, learning how to quickly say no to stocks, Buffets quote on being a batter with unlimited strikes just waiting for the perfect pitch.
1.) I don't have to play. Big and simple yet profound investing strategy.. As always Sven, thank-you for spreading your wisdom. Don't mind so much about comments.. You're not here for them.. ; ]
In real daily life everybody is trying to buy good quality stuff as cheap as possible and is then proud about that and tells everybody he made a good deal. But in the stock market not many people care about the price they pay
The "50% strategy" is totally different from the "15% strategy". I enjoyed reading the "The DAO of Capital" you recommended, which is definitely a 50% mindset. I like watching your video, making me emotionally less lonely and it helps the rational execution. Thanks a lot!
Sven, I have the same strategy as you, and I overperformed the market big way in 2022(I started invested 1 year ago), and I really want to thank you, you are one of the few who I listened and learned from❤keep it up , you are a legend
I could not agree more with you. I also think highly of Therry Smith, however he buys to expensive for my taste. I am investing for more than 20 years and became wealthy doing exactly the way you go about investing. I bought Apple Ehen pe was 11…. Unfortunately sold in2020, however valuation was rich by then. Whenever I was not patient enough it was a mistake…… my biggest challenge is still when to sell….. would be great to have a video on how to sell ….. great thanks as always. Keep it up. I obviously belong to the 1 % ….. and watch you channel for 4 years by now…
Brilliant explanation. Not very often it's so well explained, at least to me. Thank you. I talked to a bank teller few weeks ago. Some 5-8 years ago he bought some penny stock for a few thousand $ and got really lucky with it. This stock skyrocketed and he "won" around 1000%, which was around 15k. You might think that he's was a lucky guy. Not so fast. He still buys penny stocks in the hopes that he will get lucky again. He doesn't look like he's doing any kind of valuations. It just a casino for him. So by the time he realizes that he's doing something wrong he might spend ten times the money he "won" once. I tried to explain him that the fact that the stock is "cheap" doesn't make losses smaller but it was useless. He's set to doing this. This story reminds me of those who buy stocks at crazy valuations. They MIGHT get lucky few years but in the end, the return will be miserable.
Well everone has their own strateg, because everyones financial situation, time horizon and goals are completely different. Buyinf low cost index funds is the only strategy which helps almost everyone.
What a great video!!! I do agree with many of your ideas, my favorite finance channel. Could you please make a video where you present your main parameters that a stock should hit for you to purchase it? MMM and VZ, what do you think?
I feel like the best strategy for common folks in the market is buying great businesses at a fair or even slightly higher price (if you could buy them at a low price, that would be great), and hold them forever until your retirement.
Thanks Sven. I have found for me focusing on the dividends and the income growth to be what works for me. I use dividend yield relative to 10 yr average yield along with cape and price to Graham to identify when the stocks on my list are offering reasonable income yield. My income keeps going up over time and I sleep very well at night without worries.
Hi Sven, thank you very much for the video. I have a question; I agree with everything you said, especially the fact that the current valuations are based on macroeconomy and FED balance sheet rather than real fundamentals. However, I am wondering if this will ever revert because it got to a point that is too much. Therfore, I want to ask you: do you think it is possible that the average PE ratio of 30 is going to be the new baseline? In other words, is 30 the new 10?
Thank you for your Videos. You are very patient, something that most newer and clueless Investors like me are missing completely. We are pure speculators:)
Hi Sven, you haven't analyzed the aluminum and the aluminum digger companies in a while. It's price has dropped significantly. Maybe a good time to consider investing into it?
Thanks for your insight. You are more conservative than most but still it’s a pity I didn’t know about you during the insane pandemic market exuberance.
IF you see a crash that huge in the whole market you would be able to buy literalle the best companies of the world at a ridiculous low PE. No reason to buy the market
@@Value-Investing Of course. I guess my argument for buying the market in that scenario is that one's thesis on what is a "good company" with good fundamentals may be turned on its head with a general draw down of that magnitude. Would depend on what caused the market collapse I suppose.
Dear Sven, thanks for the video! To your point about P/E of 10-15, Deere & Company is now at the P/E of 11 and yet its not a buy, I guess when explaining about P/E ratios, its benefitial to explain that a P/E of 10 is only a light bulb that something might be worth research but choosing to invest in it might not be the right call. (Cyclical company)
Sven, I remember when you did the in depth analysis of the copper industry and found it very insightful. My question is, what are your views on steel? I own Nucor stock for the dividend, and would be curious about your thoughts on potential headwinds/tailwinds. Also, will you be more of these industry overview type videos, like you've done with copper and gold in the past?
Great video. I'm glad you found your approach and stick to it. I also agree that many stocks are over-priced and to my surprise found T-bills forming a significant part of my portfolio while I look for better value and risk. Value seems better than recent yeras, but risk appears greater too.
Hey Sven, I appreciate the work you do and I have learned a lot from your videos. I have read that the bond market is larger than the stock market. Your example of Apple’s PE moving from 10 to 30 makes me wonder if 30 could turn to 60 or 90 as money moves out of bonds and into stocks. If the future is inflationary and bonds are recognized as a poor long-term investment, does this make the stock market more risky in the future because the multiples become very very high?
I agree with the general knowledge given in this video, however I also think we should focus on the average pe ratio of the market in last 40 years rather than looking at historical averages going back to 1920s etc. World has changed in every aspect and I think certain things are indeed things of the past. Average pe for last 100 years is 15x but for the last 14 years it is 19.2x.
hi Sven. I have seen few investigations that Poland became next european economical leader. What do you think about polish companies. Any interesting for you? There are a lot energy companies and banks on the stock, but maybe you will found smth more interested
Some people will always buy quality businesses for whatever price. I buy when I can get 10-12% return based on conservative DCF/DDM. Who cares about the market. Invest for you and ignore the noise. My dividend income goes higher and higher, from great businesses bought at a discounted price.
@Sven What do you think - should't the global money volume, which is increasing constantly, due to money printing, etc., make the stocks also more expensive over time? What 20 years ago would be considered expensive should be viewed today from also from that perspective too, or?
If I would follow your advise, I will loose most of my money in this inflationary situation. You will loose your money power while your are waiting and waiting. Investing is a journey in the future. To feel as a contrarian makes you not successful per se.
Interesting discussion.. you will understand business investing only when you have worked in business. That's how it goes. I don't agree with your investing strategy, but I always find it interesting to watch you, even though you flip flop a lot. you always say "I don't care for the market" but all your videos always start with price chart.. and you trade in and out a lot. Personally I build a thesis around a business, and the thesis is never pure qualitative or quantitative, it is a mix. and if I am right, the investment will reward me, and if not, then I try to learn why I was wrong. if you take equal size concentrated bets, you have to be more right than wrong to make good returns. simple, but not easy 😄
Hey Sven, great video as always! Will you talk about the other two stocks you own in your portfolio - the american one and the asian one? Also isn't there a bigger risk to buy outside America since in the US the regulatory is the strongest. At least that's what I've read and hear. Even Peter Lynch says in his books that he bought few stocks in Europe.
Why ? The author stated in 1975 that "I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis to find superior value opportunities". He already knew that the easy profits had dried up, and that was more than fifty years ago. Reading his book today is like reading a medieval scroll to get an insight into cosmology. It's beyond stupid.
@@chrisf1600 well, that’s your opinion. I don’t think I was stupid to read it. I didn’t have background in investing and I found that book to be invaluable. Especially nowadays where there’s so much noise and unfounded hype about different things. The concepts remain very relevant to this day.
Hey Sven, would you have any interest in looking at BERY again. You analyzed it in Jan 2022 and called it an interesting cyclical that was at the top of the cycle. That seems to have been true, but it has since took a big leg down. I'm curious if a second leg down might put it in what you'd consider a buy range.
Hi Sven, on my opinion to say undervalued or overvalued is often nonsense because it all depends on the thesis you have for the future growth of a, company. Something can be overvalued with a 'low' PE or undervalued with a 'high' PE. But we will know in the future who is right or not. It is all about margin of safety and your strategy looks to me that you want to buy with a great margin of safety which is something good. Then it is hard to lose money but at the same time a great patience is, needed and I appreciate. So my criticism is about the term, I would highlight more the concept of MOS instead of undervalued or overvalued.
I find it hard to diversify a bit away from the US (my portfolio is like 90% US stocks), I recently took an interest in Nokia, they are not the Nokia of the past and now focus on routers, 5G infrastructure, network infrastructure and they're trading quite cheaply, especially for their industry (current PE below 5, but earnings seem to be very volatile, could easily drop to 20-30 in a year with same share-price) If you ever intend to cover some EU stocks again (you really enlightened me with Rubis!) I would be greatly interested to see you cover Nokia, I'm on the edge of buying it, but not sure myself
short term bonds is the best stradegy for now. Historically, 300 years back, after long periods of low interest rates once interest rates go up things brake badly. Defence is the best offence here. I am in maximum 2 year treasuries and own no stocks at all right now. I have a feeling that I wont regret it
Companies compound, bonds not. Bonds are NEVER the best strategy if your horizon is long. Is only an asset for people that cant stand volatility, but the cost of it is less return.
@@alejandro1242 My bonds strategy is not long, I would say 1-2 years hold. Once no one wants stocks I will sell my bonds and buy stocks. I am a student of history ( 1600-2023 and not 1980-2023 like most here) and it is very clear to me that I should not own any stocks right now. Ps never say NEVER. Bonds were the best strategy 1981-1989 by far. And by bonds I mean treasury bonds of different duration
@@Greektall Being that categorical never works. Wait for a PE of 15 times made impossible to buy last 40 years of market, one of the best bull runs if history if not the best. And thanks buying sightly overvalued market I did +100% last year with high quality bussiness. And even now you hay many value stocks at price. I would never choose a poor 5% of bonds tbh. Market is full of companies at a fair value all the time.
@@alejandro1242 The best bull run you refer to has to do with lower and lower interest rates. Cause and effect. If interest rates fall back to zero I am a stock and gold buyer. If stimulus comes back with a vengeance I am a btc buyer. When banks fail I am a bonds buyer. Hats off to you for 100% in 2022!
Your investment style is contrarian. I feel you have to think outside the box to really find the good "diamond in the rough" companies that will give you those great returns. Ive only been in this game for 3 years but I'm finding that you need most of the retail investor crowd to look at the same overvalued companies. That way you can find those good companies that aren't(if that makes sense) . You're actually one of the few channels that still give good content. Keep up the good work!
Sven you spent to much time reading negative comments. You do great job by teaching people Value Investing and difference between value and price. I do not follow same stocks you buy/recommend but agree with your investment filosophy in 100%. I buy stock wiith low P/BV and P/E and have above 20% annual return for last few years. Just do what you do
This time I argree Sven… analyzed individually, 80% of company of the s&p 500 seems overvalued to me. So why I have to buy all of them… This is a passive investing bubble, indeed s&p started to be overvalued from its historical average exactly from 1990s, the years where the first ETF was lunched… Now everyone buy this index, and usually when everyone do the same thing nothing exceptional is achieved, we must think differently
Take a look at STMICROELECTRONICS- great semiconductor stock to hold in the near future! Great balance sheet, income statement, prospective. Cheap comparing to other semiconductor stocks. Also has a factory in China
Hi Sven, could you take a look at ITV PLC. Ad based revenue so will be impacted cyclically and also has some short term problems with one of its main presenters that could create opportunity. Thanks.
The PE ratio does not work and there are many studies on it. most commonly known indicators do not give the investor any advantage. presidential cycles in the states and buying big companies gives you some advantage
@@Value-Investing your strategy suits me and your videos help me a lot in investing. data shows that most bear markets since 1925 have occurred when the average P/E ratio is lower than 20. The exceptions are 03/2000 p/e 27.6 and 03/2022 p/e 22.3. I believe that P/E is not a good indicator for predicting future stock movements. it is not flexible enough and does not take into account changes in the macroeconomic situation and is too easy to calculate. I don't want to criticize anyone, I'm just joining the discussion.
Sven, a lot of oil stocks have PE ratios below 10 and pay 8 or 10 percent dividends. Why don't you talk about those stocks? Like Devon, Chesapeake, Sitio, Enterprise, etc.
If you like companies with low pe and high div yields why you ditched altria & tobacco companies for this matter? Altria now offers almost 9% yield growing eps despite lower smoker consumption and also is priced in as 0% growth while most of tobacco companies are heavy investing in new markets like heat not burn products and vapes etc Worst case without any movement in next 10~ years you make 2x only from the dividend any thoughts on that?
And what stocks are you invested in? I find it hard to not invest in America due to the corporate nature of the managements and the dedication to shareholders (as a Dutch person).
@@Value-Investing True that, though I have to find out myself since I only invest for a year know. Until now my strategy is to pick the highest quality companies with (almost no debt), high roic (and therefore a moat) and great free caseflows when the sector drops hard but the fundamentals stay the same. This in combination with a discounted cashflow to see the possible up or downside in the coming years and within my return rate. For instance Microsoft, Google, meta, early this year and a couple of reits. I just started but until now I can sleep well by hopefully not paying to much for high quality companies. Hoping to expand this to other markets like you have.
Rule #1 is not to loss money and Rule #2 is not to forget rule #1. High valuations expose you to de-rating risk and share prices can drop significantly. Market average PE and market average returns are meaningless in my opinion. We investors just want to get the highest possible returns with the least risk with our money.
@@Value-Investing I appreciate that and I think there is rationale behind this investment. It is just illustration that value investment is not such straightforward as it is promoted by many of value investing fans. Value can be find even in "expensive" stocks with high PE ratios and it can be a little value in stocks with single digit PE or double digit dividend yield.
Investing is not about risk and reward, it's about making money, it's about performance. If you can outperform the market at low risk, than good for you. PE is not a good way to value a company. HPQ and Intel have low PE, but that does not mean they are good companies. If you bought HPQ 20 years ago, you would have x2 your investment, at best. A company has a low PE for a reason and I would instead invest in AAPL at 25 PE than HPQ at 10.
Hi Sven, let me suggest a US company which I consider an investment in Benjamin Graham style, i.e. a cigar butt from which you still get some puffs. Nobody dares touching it, not even with a stick (except for myself). Its Big Lots. -discount retailer - losing money since 1 year, after 4 decades of profitability, mainly due to inflation which increased their costs. - trading at 20% of book value I think they will succed in managing costs, turning to profitability. At least they are not hiding away from the problems, but facing them. Risks: the company goes bust. You loose all your money. Reward: if they turn to minimum profitability, P/B goes back to 1, which means 5x.
Sven your strategy is based on the theory that market evaluates wrongly information that are commonly known (that was the case of Meta and spotting the irrationality was your masterpiece), but actually low P/E's and bargain prices of most of the companies that you mention goes hand in hand with higher risk. That's the case of Rubis, Warner Bros Discovery, Acomo or Intel. I don't see any substantial lowering the risk in your financial decisions neither now nor 2, 4 and 5 years ago.
It's incredibly foolish. You're taking risk that the market doesn't compensate you for. One bit of serious bad news, and that's a third of your wealth wiped out.
But the problem is if a great company (let's say SBUX) is cheap, everyone will want it, so they'll push the stock price up. For SBUX to be cheap, everyone would have to be scared of stocks, and that would happen if maybe US bonds would yield 8-10% a year. Can that happen? Sure. Is it imminent? Don't think so. So you will never be able to buy SBUX, a great company. What am I missing?
No point talking about what is expensive but rather talk about what is NOT expensive, so that we can research ourselves and see and buy with conviction.
:-) UA-cam is for education and entertainment purposes. Why do you waste time here, take my research platform and save a lot of time? I am sure it is nothing for you!
Sven, i agree with you that most of S&P 500 stocks look overvalued. But i'm puzzled by the fact that the sharp increase in interest rates didn't push valuations down as one might have expected... maybe we are in "Calm before the storm" mode... can we say that after the bear market in 2022? Maybe the baby bear🧸, is waiting for MAMA BEAR? 🐻
I Hope you Never Stop making videos!!! you’re the only one I like on UA-cam ❤
Thanks!
Great video Sven! I learned from you that you can't argue with math. Its frustrating to see wonderful businesses with low discount/return potential, but thats life 😂
:-)
Of course
Of course
One of the best analysis UA-cam channels, people don't understand the idea that you make money when you buy not when you sell
Your strategy is understandable and solid. The reason most people don’t like it is because you cannot make big money with this strategy in a short amount of time, which is what most people dream of. You cannot even make a living out of it while growing your capital at the same time, unless you have a huge amount of money! You either have to work on the side, inherit a lot, or make it big elsewhere/elsehow in order to use your strategy for growing wealth.
Finally someone speaks my language, risk are to high are a no no
Your last video on valueing s&p stocks i saw comments that it wasnt educational and you used to be educational 😳
Thats been one of my favourite things with this channel, learning how to quickly say no to stocks, Buffets quote on being a batter with unlimited strikes just waiting for the perfect pitch.
1.) I don't have to play. Big and simple yet profound investing strategy.. As always Sven, thank-you for spreading your wisdom. Don't mind so much about comments.. You're not here for them.. ; ]
:-) Thanks!
A while since I left a comment. Stay the course Sven. I have no complaints. You are a voice of reason in a room full of emotions
In real daily life everybody is trying to buy good quality stuff as cheap as possible and is then proud about that and tells everybody he made a good deal. But in the stock market not many people care about the price they pay
they just care about stocks that will go up!
The "50% strategy" is totally different from the "15% strategy". I enjoyed reading the "The DAO of Capital" you recommended, which is definitely a 50% mindset. I like watching your video, making me emotionally less lonely and it helps the rational execution. Thanks a lot!
Sven, I have the same strategy as you, and I overperformed the market big way in 2022(I started invested 1 year ago), and I really want to thank you, you are one of the few who I listened and learned from❤keep it up , you are a legend
Wow, great to hear!
Lol 🙄
I could not agree more with you. I also think highly of Therry Smith, however he buys to expensive for my taste.
I am investing for more than 20 years and became wealthy doing exactly the way you go about investing. I bought Apple Ehen pe was 11…. Unfortunately sold in2020, however valuation was rich by then. Whenever I was not patient enough it was a mistake…… my biggest challenge is still when to sell….. would be great to have a video on how to sell ….. great thanks as always. Keep it up. I obviously belong to the 1 % ….. and watch you channel for 4 years by now…
Great to hear! Thanks!
Brilliant explanation. Not very often it's so well explained, at least to me. Thank you.
I talked to a bank teller few weeks ago. Some 5-8 years ago he bought some penny stock for a few thousand $ and got really lucky with it. This stock skyrocketed and he "won" around 1000%, which was around 15k. You might think that he's was a lucky guy. Not so fast. He still buys penny stocks in the hopes that he will get lucky again. He doesn't look like he's doing any kind of valuations. It just a casino for him. So by the time he realizes that he's doing something wrong he might spend ten times the money he "won" once. I tried to explain him that the fact that the stock is "cheap" doesn't make losses smaller but it was useless. He's set to doing this.
This story reminds me of those who buy stocks at crazy valuations. They MIGHT get lucky few years but in the end, the return will be miserable.
Well everone has their own strateg, because everyones financial situation, time horizon and goals are completely different. Buyinf low cost index funds is the only strategy which helps almost everyone.
I would disagree!!! What benefits everyone is learning about what investing is!
A YT channel that ADDS VALUE
Great Content!
:-)
Thank you sven, I think I fall to this trap too. I thinking too much about potential return rather than potential downside.
It is a life long process!
❤❤
What a great video!!! I do agree with many of your ideas, my favorite finance channel.
Could you please make a video where you present your main parameters that a stock should hit for you to purchase it?
MMM and VZ, what do you think?
I feel like the best strategy for common folks in the market is buying great businesses at a fair or even slightly higher price (if you could buy them at a low price, that would be great), and hold them forever until your retirement.
Thanks Sven. I have found for me focusing on the dividends and the income growth to be what works for me. I use dividend yield relative to 10 yr average yield along with cape and price to Graham to identify when the stocks on my list are offering reasonable income yield. My income keeps going up over time and I sleep very well at night without worries.
Hi Sven, thank you very much for the video. I have a question; I agree with everything you said, especially the fact that the current valuations are based on macroeconomy and FED balance sheet rather than real fundamentals. However, I am wondering if this will ever revert because it got to a point that is too much. Therfore, I want to ask you: do you think it is possible that the average PE ratio of 30 is going to be the new baseline? In other words, is 30 the new 10?
Thank you for your Videos. You are very patient, something that most newer and clueless Investors like me are missing completely. We are pure speculators:)
Hi Sven, you haven't analyzed the aluminum and the aluminum digger companies in a while. It's price has dropped significantly. Maybe a good time to consider investing into it?
the time will come
Good good Sven! I like to hear this
Great!
Thanks for your insight. You are more conservative than most but still it’s a pity I didn’t know about you during the insane pandemic market exuberance.
Sven. If there was a general market crash that brought PE down to 10, would you buy the whole market?
IF you see a crash that huge in the whole market you would be able to buy literalle the best companies of the world at a ridiculous low PE. No reason to buy the market
You wouldn't be asking this question if you understood this video.
there would be things trading at future PE ratios of 2, or even 1, which is then a 5x or a 10x, the market at best will do a 2x after 50% down!
@@Value-Investing Of course. I guess my argument for buying the market in that scenario is that one's thesis on what is a "good company" with good fundamentals may be turned on its head with a general draw down of that magnitude. Would depend on what caused the market collapse I suppose.
Hey Sven, I appreciate your contrarian and strong mindset.
What are your three picks?
(one of them is rubis, I guess)
Kind regards, Andreas
Dear Sven, thanks for the video!
To your point about P/E of 10-15, Deere & Company is now at the P/E of 11 and yet its not a buy, I guess when explaining about P/E ratios, its benefitial to explain that a P/E of 10 is only a light bulb that something might be worth research but choosing to invest in it might not be the right call. (Cyclical company)
❤❤
very good video. Thanks for making me feel better for not playing and keep my FOMO in check lol!
Sven, I remember when you did the in depth analysis of the copper industry and found it very insightful.
My question is, what are your views on steel? I own Nucor stock for the dividend, and would be curious about your thoughts on potential headwinds/tailwinds.
Also, will you be more of these industry overview type videos, like you've done with copper and gold in the past?
Great video. I'm glad you found your approach and stick to it. I also agree that many stocks are over-priced and to my surprise found T-bills forming a significant part of my portfolio while I look for better value and risk. Value seems better than recent yeras, but risk appears greater too.
Hey Sven, I appreciate the work you do and I have learned a lot from your videos. I have read that the bond market is larger than the stock market. Your example of Apple’s PE moving from 10 to 30 makes me wonder if 30 could turn to 60 or 90 as money moves out of bonds and into stocks. If the future is inflationary and bonds are recognized as a poor long-term investment, does this make the stock market more risky in the future because the multiples become very very high?
Once people realise that a great business and a bad investment can coexist, it makes them a better risk manager.
very good reminding us of the fundamentals. thx Sven. congrats on Roglic winning the Giro! was an exciting year.
Thanks!
I agree with the general knowledge given in this video, however I also think we should focus on the average pe ratio of the market in last 40 years rather than looking at historical averages going back to 1920s etc. World has changed in every aspect and I think certain things are indeed things of the past. Average pe for last 100 years is 15x but for the last 14 years it is 19.2x.
One thing that you have to take into account is that this time, it's different 😅
hi Sven. I have seen few investigations that Poland became next european economical leader. What do you think about polish companies. Any interesting for you? There are a lot energy companies and banks on the stock, but maybe you will found smth more interested
Some people will always buy quality businesses for whatever price. I buy when I can get 10-12% return based on conservative DCF/DDM. Who cares about the market. Invest for you and ignore the noise. My dividend income goes higher and higher, from great businesses bought at a discounted price.
@Sven
What do you think - should't the global money volume, which is increasing constantly, due to money printing, etc., make the stocks also more expensive over time?
What 20 years ago would be considered expensive should be viewed today from also from that perspective too, or?
I like your remark about Roglic, Sven :) Now I know why you have a little bike in the background :D
:-)))
If I would follow your advise, I will loose most of my money in this inflationary situation. You will loose your money power while your are waiting and waiting. Investing is a journey in the future. To feel as a contrarian makes you not successful per se.
who is waiting, I follow many companies, and here and there one falls into my bucket:-))
but this is an excellent point you touch on here!!!
@@Value-Investingokay, Sven but your are a Profi Investor and you can’t compete with an average retail investor.
Interesting discussion.. you will understand business investing only when you have worked in business. That's how it goes. I don't agree with your investing strategy, but I always find it interesting to watch you, even though you flip flop a lot. you always say "I don't care for the market" but all your videos always start with price chart.. and you trade in and out a lot.
Personally I build a thesis around a business, and the thesis is never pure qualitative or quantitative, it is a mix. and if I am right, the investment will reward me, and if not, then I try to learn why I was wrong. if you take equal size concentrated bets, you have to be more right than wrong to make good returns. simple, but not easy 😄
Hey Sven, great video as always! Will you talk about the other two stocks you own in your portfolio - the american one and the asian one? Also isn't there a bigger risk to buy outside America since in the US the regulatory is the strongest. At least that's what I've read and hear. Even Peter Lynch says in his books that he bought few stocks in Europe.
Cant talk on yt about those :-( on Europe, i am from here so it is much easier
Thank you Sven very good commentary😊
:-)
A great way to start teh week! Coffee and my friend Sven!
Enjoy the week and the coffee!
There is definitely a small mic cracking noise, am I imagining that? Otherwise great vids as always.
there is yes, Will work on that, thanks!
I think reading “the intelligent investor“ is a prerequisite before anyone considers buying any stock. Great video
it is a hard read, this summary should help ua-cam.com/video/rZ_xAEt09C0/v-deo.html
Why ? The author stated in 1975 that "I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis to find superior value opportunities". He already knew that the easy profits had dried up, and that was more than fifty years ago. Reading his book today is like reading a medieval scroll to get an insight into cosmology. It's beyond stupid.
@@chrisf1600 well, that’s your opinion. I don’t think I was stupid to read it. I didn’t have background in investing and I found that book to be invaluable. Especially nowadays where there’s so much noise and unfounded hype about different things. The concepts remain very relevant to this day.
Hey Sven, would you have any interest in looking at BERY again. You analyzed it in Jan 2022 and called it an interesting cyclical that was at the top of the cycle. That seems to have been true, but it has since took a big leg down. I'm curious if a second leg down might put it in what you'd consider a buy range.
thanks for suggesting!
You are so right bro.....I will start doin that more but I always buy my div stock every week but other I will lol
My biggest advantages are:
I will never be forced to sell.
I will never be forced to buy.
I will never have to assume unnecessary risk.
:-)
same, i’m in college right now and there’s no risk in being too broke to play the game
Hi Sven, on my opinion to say undervalued or overvalued is often nonsense because it all depends on the thesis you have for the future growth of a, company.
Something can be overvalued with a 'low' PE or undervalued with a 'high' PE. But we will know in the future who is right or not.
It is all about margin of safety and your strategy looks to me that you want to buy with a great margin of safety which is something good. Then it is hard to lose money but at the same time a great patience is, needed and I appreciate.
So my criticism is about the term, I would highlight more the concept of MOS instead of undervalued or overvalued.
4:43 It would be interesting to see your three businesses that you own,only to understand the strategy.
check my research platform, there is even a 21 money back guarantee!
great video to start the week. i learned much and enjoyed your explanation of (your) investing!
thanks!
I find it hard to diversify a bit away from the US (my portfolio is like 90% US stocks), I recently took an interest in Nokia, they are not the Nokia of the past and now focus on routers, 5G infrastructure, network infrastructure and they're trading quite cheaply, especially for their industry (current PE below 5, but earnings seem to be very volatile, could easily drop to 20-30 in a year with same share-price)
If you ever intend to cover some EU stocks again (you really enlightened me with Rubis!) I would be greatly interested to see you cover Nokia, I'm on the edge of buying it, but not sure myself
short term bonds is the best stradegy for now. Historically, 300 years back, after long periods of low interest rates once interest rates go up things brake badly. Defence is the best offence here. I am in maximum 2 year treasuries and own no stocks at all right now. I have a feeling that I wont regret it
Companies compound, bonds not. Bonds are NEVER the best strategy if your horizon is long. Is only an asset for people that cant stand volatility, but the cost of it is less return.
@@alejandro1242
My bonds strategy is not long, I would say 1-2 years hold. Once no one wants stocks I will sell my bonds and buy stocks. I am a student of history ( 1600-2023 and not 1980-2023 like most here) and it is very clear to me that I should not own any stocks right now.
Ps never say NEVER. Bonds were the best strategy 1981-1989 by far. And by bonds I mean treasury bonds of different duration
@@Greektall Being that categorical never works. Wait for a PE of 15 times made impossible to buy last 40 years of market, one of the best bull runs if history if not the best. And thanks buying sightly overvalued market I did +100% last year with high quality bussiness. And even now you hay many value stocks at price. I would never choose a poor 5% of bonds tbh. Market is full of companies at a fair value all the time.
you are hoping for a crash and betting there will be no hypeinflation. So, you are just taking a risk.
@@alejandro1242 The best bull run you refer to has to do with lower and lower interest rates. Cause and effect. If interest rates fall back to zero I am a stock and gold buyer. If stimulus comes back with a vengeance I am a btc buyer. When banks fail I am a bonds buyer.
Hats off to you for 100% in 2022!
Can we get an in depth video on relative investing vs absolute investing?
At 15% return, Sven is already doing better than Mohnish Pabrai. I love your channel Sven, thank you.
yes, but I didn't pay for a lunch with Buffett so I am not as well regarded :-)
Your investment style is contrarian. I feel you have to think outside the box to really find the good "diamond in the rough" companies that will give you those great returns. Ive only been in this game for 3 years but I'm finding that you need most of the retail investor crowd to look at the same overvalued companies. That way you can find those good companies that aren't(if that makes sense) . You're actually one of the few channels that still give good content. Keep up the good work!
Sven you spent to much time reading negative comments. You do great job by teaching people Value Investing and difference between value and price. I do not follow same stocks you buy/recommend but agree with your investment filosophy in 100%. I buy stock wiith low P/BV and P/E and have above 20% annual return for last few years. Just do what you do
ah, I think I don't spend any time on this YT :-)))
Of course ❤❤❤
I catched the line about Roglic there hahah :) Are you a fellow cycling fan, Sven?
This time I argree Sven… analyzed individually, 80% of company of the s&p 500 seems overvalued to me. So why I have to buy all of them… This is a passive investing bubble, indeed s&p started to be overvalued from its historical average exactly from 1990s, the years where the first ETF was lunched… Now everyone buy this index, and usually when everyone do the same thing nothing exceptional is achieved, we must think differently
Indexing is a strategy against ignorance. Your strategy works for you but average investor has blind spots. There’s also such a thing as value trap.
Absolutely! But if you are average, you dont watch yt vids about investing :-)
Take a look at STMICROELECTRONICS- great semiconductor stock to hold in the near future! Great balance sheet, income statement, prospective. Cheap comparing to other semiconductor stocks. Also has a factory in China
Hi Sven, could you take a look at ITV PLC. Ad based revenue so will be impacted cyclically and also has some short term problems with one of its main presenters that could create opportunity. Thanks.
would you ever try to buy an index instead of individual stocks?
The PE ratio does not work and there are many studies on it. most commonly known indicators do not give the investor any advantage. presidential cycles in the states and buying big companies gives you some advantage
Yes, good for you that you made billions with your strategy!
@@Value-Investing your strategy suits me and your videos help me a lot in investing. data shows that most bear markets since 1925 have occurred when the average P/E ratio is lower than 20. The exceptions are 03/2000 p/e 27.6 and 03/2022 p/e 22.3. I believe that P/E is not a good indicator for predicting future stock movements. it is not flexible enough and does not take into account changes in the macroeconomic situation and is too easy to calculate. I don't want to criticize anyone, I'm just joining the discussion.
Sven, a lot of oil stocks have PE ratios below 10 and pay 8 or 10 percent dividends. Why don't you talk about those stocks? Like Devon, Chesapeake, Sitio, Enterprise, etc.
If you like companies with low pe and high div yields why you ditched altria & tobacco companies for this matter?
Altria now offers almost 9% yield growing eps despite lower smoker consumption and also is priced in as 0% growth while
most of tobacco companies are heavy investing in new markets like heat not burn products and vapes etc
Worst case without any movement in next 10~ years you make 2x only from the dividend any thoughts on that?
just looked at Altria, doesn't look good, actually very ugly, will discuss in video next veek, already filmed
@@Value-Investing cant wait to see your thesis
And what stocks are you invested in? I find it hard to not invest in America due to the corporate nature of the managements and the dedication to shareholders (as a Dutch person).
Yes, but you oay a price for that!
@@Value-Investing True that, though I have to find out myself since I only invest for a year know.
Until now my strategy is to pick the highest quality companies with (almost no debt), high roic (and therefore a moat) and great free caseflows when the sector drops hard but the fundamentals stay the same. This in combination with a discounted cashflow to see the possible up or downside in the coming years and within my return rate.
For instance Microsoft, Google, meta, early this year and a couple of reits.
I just started but until now I can sleep well by hopefully not paying to much for high quality companies.
Hoping to expand this to other markets like you have.
Hi Sven!
Great videos..looking forward your videos regarding AI
you will likely not see them, I don't have much to add!
Rule #1 is not to loss money and Rule #2 is not to forget rule #1.
High valuations expose you to de-rating risk and share prices can drop significantly. Market average PE and market average returns are meaningless in my opinion. We investors just want to get the highest possible returns with the least risk with our money.
If you always buy the dip, one day you will have one.
P.S. BTI is a buy now :)
what do you think about MLKN?
Ok, love the explanation on your strategy, but investing is a double edged sword. Can you now explain when you sell?
great video Sven! Thanks
thanks!
How do you know future growth?
All this sounds attractive, but than Swen buys Amazon with three digital PE and no dividends and ......
yes, but I always explain the strategy behind that, that is a risk and reward position...
@@Value-Investing I appreciate that and I think there is rationale behind this investment. It is just illustration that value investment is not such straightforward as it is promoted by many of value investing fans. Value can be find even in "expensive" stocks with high PE ratios and it can be a little value in stocks with single digit PE or double digit dividend yield.
Ah yes...another video of my unnamed amazing stocks...that you can maybe figure out jumping through my hoops
wait, is this YT? be careful if you want to get it all for free in life!
Solid!
Investing is not about risk and reward, it's about making money, it's about performance. If you can outperform the market at low risk, than good for you. PE is not a good way to value a company. HPQ and Intel have low PE, but that does not mean they are good companies. If you bought HPQ 20 years ago, you would have x2 your investment, at best. A company has a low PE for a reason and I would instead invest in AAPL at 25 PE than HPQ at 10.
yes, PE is just a start...
Why you mention the dividend yield? Is this a criteria for you to invest in a company? When so then why? For me this make no sense as a value investor
it doesn't matter, but if there is one great, of course, growth and cash flows are the main value creators
Hi Sven, let me suggest a US company which I consider an investment in Benjamin Graham style, i.e. a cigar butt from which you still get some puffs.
Nobody dares touching it, not even with a stick (except for myself).
Its Big Lots.
-discount retailer
- losing money since 1 year, after 4 decades of profitability, mainly due to inflation which increased their costs.
- trading at 20% of book value
I think they will succed in managing costs, turning to profitability. At least they are not hiding away from the problems, but facing them.
Risks: the company goes bust. You loose all your money.
Reward: if they turn to minimum profitability, P/B goes back to 1, which means 5x.
thanks for sharing!
Sven your strategy is based on the theory that market evaluates wrongly information that are commonly known (that was the case of Meta and spotting the irrationality was your masterpiece), but actually low P/E's and bargain prices of most of the companies that you mention goes hand in hand with higher risk. That's the case of Rubis, Warner Bros Discovery, Acomo or Intel. I don't see any substantial lowering the risk in your financial decisions neither now nor 2, 4 and 5 years ago.
Sound much better👍
thanks!!! Will try to still improve!
Hi Sven, regardless of what you buy, isn't it risky to have only three stocks in your portfolio due to limited diversification?
there is risk, there is volatility, that is a big difference. But yes, I watch my baskets carefully!
It's incredibly foolish. You're taking risk that the market doesn't compensate you for. One bit of serious bad news, and that's a third of your wealth wiped out.
I actually agree with you. Does that mean I'm gonna be rich? ☺ Heh, heh, thanks!
But the problem is if a great company (let's say SBUX) is cheap, everyone will want it, so they'll push the stock price up. For SBUX to be cheap, everyone would have to be scared of stocks, and that would happen if maybe US bonds would yield 8-10% a year. Can that happen? Sure. Is it imminent? Don't think so. So you will never be able to buy SBUX, a great company.
What am I missing?
no, people will not want it when it is cheap, people will want it only if the stock will go up!
Great video!
How many stocks do you own in your private portfolio? Just 3?
yep, 3
@@Value-Investing respect
Norfolk southern is getting interesting, railroad stock update?
remind we when there is a clear recession!
Austevoll Seafood. 7 PE, 7% Dividend, 15% historical CAGR. Tax uncertainties cleared!
Sven, koje dve pored ACOMO su u portfelju i kada se ušlo u poziciju?
nije Acomo :-)
@@Value-Investing Zakaj ne?
Sven I disagree with this microphone being better (at these settings?) I'm just trying to help you..
Thank you, I will try to play with the settings. You tell me in the next video if it is better :-))
@@Value-Investing Will do! :)
Thanks.
Thank!
🙏
Thank you!
I'm sorry, but I agree with you.
❤❤
Nice video!
:-)
Could you comment Charlie Munger explanation on whi he use leverage for Ali Baba, for those who didnt understand in deepth/like me/?
No point talking about what is expensive but rather talk about what is NOT expensive, so that we can research ourselves and see and buy with conviction.
:-) UA-cam is for education and entertainment purposes. Why do you waste time here, take my research platform and save a lot of time? I am sure it is nothing for you!
Sven, i agree with you that most of S&P 500 stocks look overvalued. But i'm puzzled by the fact that the sharp increase in interest rates didn't push valuations down as one might have expected... maybe we are in "Calm before the storm" mode... can we say that after the bear market in 2022? Maybe the baby bear🧸, is waiting for MAMA BEAR? 🐻
because all the projections are for lower rates next year already!