How to Predict a Draw in Football | Top tips for football betting and trading
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- Опубліковано 1 лип 2024
- If you are betting on football or using a Betfair trading strategy like 'Lay the draw'. Learning how to predict a draw in a football match will help you understand what matches to use for your favoured betting or trading strategy.
In this video, we share some tips about how to price a draw. We use some historical statistics to price the odds for a match ending in a draw. This will help you decide if the betting odds are accurate or whether the chance of a draw suits your betting strategy or not.
Following the steps in this video will give you the best chance of predicting a draw in a football match. Rather than following football tips, why not actually use this method to price a market yourself and find out if the betting odds you are seeing are a fair reflection of the chances your predictions indicate.
For more videos like this visit the Bet Angel Academy where we talk in-depth about how to find profitable betting and Betfair trading strategies. For free!
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In this video: -
00:00 Introduction
00:18 How many goals are scored in an average football match?
01:50 Using football statistics to help your predictions
03:55 Using some maths to predict future goals scored
06:40 Using our goals predictions get the betting odds for a draw
09:20 Summary
#football #betting #draw - Спорт
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Great Video Peter, very useful. keep up the good work.
Thank you Peter will be using it
Wow! That scoring goal percentage spreadsheet is pure gold. Thank you for this, Peter.
No problem. Plenty of nuggets on the forum!
😅
Great information, clear and concise. Thanks for sharing.
Many thanks for your comment.
Fascinating video, more like this one please.
Thanks, will do.
This is what I was exactly looking for!
Glad it was helpful
Thanks Peter, top vid as usual
btw , i worked out my question re 'right team' on the Lay the Draw vid ... quite obvious really when i think about it. Got Cricket T20 WC starting next week - got all my stats ready to make a killing.....or not !
Thanks for letting me know!
Thanks for creating this video. It contains some good pointers. Could I suggest though that it is more about predicting the probability of a draw occurring than actually predicting a draw. Although, of course, over time, if you can get more favourable odds on the likelihood of a draw than the bookmaker thinks, then you should make a profit.
That is precisely what it is doing.
You can never say with high certainly that a draw will occur. All you can ever do is state its likelihood.
Please make the spreadsheet available. You have also not explained what values you have entered on the pdf, and where did you get the values from for each average score. I wonder how people in these comment can be praising your video and it had very little information on how to arrive at the first table of pdf. It can not be replicated.
Where can I get the spreadsheet?
Probability density function. Trying to replicate the upper table but can only get info for one column. How do you get it to do multiple columns?
There is quite a bit of discussion about it on the forum. You may want to check out some of the threads there. Most of the work is done for you on this thread - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=23700
Good video
Many thanks for your comment
Please can you possibly use any match already played that ended on a draw as an example
Hi, Not sure I understand the question properly?
Thank you
You are welcome!
Hi. Apologies as english is not my first language.
Nice detailed video showing what outcome you can expect from the game with regards to the draw.
I just managed to see 2 of your youtube videos, this one being the second. In the previous one I watched, you stated that your income is based in horse racing betting. So effectively that statement shows, that it is hard to earn on betting draw in football. If it was not hard I would expect you to do it. It is not the matter of what sport you prefer. If you are in business of making money on trading platform, it doesn't matter where it is being made. I am not going to dislike your video as it is nicely done. It just lacks the consistency with your way of trading. Can't see it being much encouraging to follow....
You probably don't know much about me, but my first ever huge betting win was on football and that was were I started.
I trade and bet on many sports now, but horse racing is high up the list because there are so many races. So it's inevitable that you will make more money there if you have an edge as there are so many events.
There is always less football on, so it's my profits now are just skewed to where the biggest opportunties are.
So, for example, I trade all the Golf majors succesfully. But of course, there are only four key majors each year. So my profits will never reach the same as other sports.
I just done calculation for a game tommorrow. Odds on draw a pretty much exactly the same as odds on the exchange. Not sure what what is the point of this calculation ? Im missing something?
Exactly ,,,i thought am alone
Hello there ! Does it mean any figure around 3.8 will results in a draw ?
No, you need to think in probabilities.
Wonder if that’s the 6-6 Motherwell v Hibs game from 2010 in your background. Ridiculous game of football that was.
Well spotted. I put little easter eggs in every video I do, but they rarely get spotted!
Try working out the odds for that match!!!!!
The odds for the draw would likely have been 1000 when Hibs were 6-2 up early second half. One of the worst capitulations I’ve seen from my team. The equaliser at the death was unbelievable though!
Didn't realise they were your team. That's a shocker!
Top 😅💋
How did you convert your percentage to odds ie 8.21% to odds of 12.18 - I think this is wrong. Cheers
To convert a probability to odds you simply divide 1 by the probability. Therefore 1/.0821 = 12.18
@@betangeltv Thanks for that
The draw odds for teams with good goal averages are extremely high by this calculation.
I've done a few other videos that supplement this with some more detailed calculations. You may want to have a look at some of those.
the problem is not you sharing your knowledge, why don't you show the exact way of how you choose the team what you do and make money at the end. All this is useful but abc would help much more.
Imagine you are a horse; I'm leading you up the water. But only you can choose what to do next.
If you are looking for a simple get rich quick by doing this type approach, there are plenty of system selling scammers out there that will have your money.
I'm trying to teach people what they should be doing and how. But some of that is down to you. You need to find your edge.
So if 3.85 doesn't necessarily mean there will be a draw then what does the calculation mean exactly , so when do i know its a draw after doing all that shit ,, all you showing me here is how to find draw odds ,tell me which odd or percentage that i get after calculations is a right prediction of a draw ,home or away,,
Really
Would it not just be easier to say 0-0? @ 60+% or have I missed something?
Not completely sure I understand the question there?
@@betangeltv on the chart would the 0-0 be more likely to come in? @60%?
Sorry, I'm still confused. Maybe I've mis-understood the question?
Next stop is: Probablility density functions !
It's a huge rabbit hole to dive down. But there are lots of angles you can take on which is the most appropiate to use.
Hi sir draw prediction possible
This video is about how to predict a draw? You can only predict the chance of a draw.
Peter you need to be carful your like the George sores of betting and stats! 🤣
Curiously, there is often little interest in the detail. But it's key if you want to do really well at this. Guess that's what makes the market.
@@betangeltv your the guru and that’s a fact.
If you,the lizard, caan and Phycof got together you would make your own exchange you would be unstoppable! Dream team!
Did you use Poisson or Euler?
My forum nickname is Euler. There are so many ways to approach this though. This is sort of where I started all those years ago.
Send me draw matches
This video tells you how to calculate the chance of a draw. So that you can do it yourself.
If we are going to look back just this way then a big mistake has been made and the job is only half done
Only the goals scored by the teams are taken here .... If we are going to bring the matter to an end and properly, then everything should be done for number of goals that the teams will receive.Because it does not mean that if the host gives 1.5 goals per match that the guest receives 1.5 goals per match.And that brings us to a whole new question ... what are the more important goals?
Those that the team gives or receives???
The whole concept is wrong
It's difficult to do an exhaustive explanation in less than ten minutes. So it's easy to pick holes in it. But if you can watch the other videos in the series they go into more depth, like this one - ua-cam.com/video/uKEZTq4guo8/v-deo.html
@@betangeltv I watched that video as I watched all your videos ... the key sentence is
If this match is played 100 times, the average number of goals would be ... The problem is that the match is played only once
That's why I wrote that the whole concept is wrong, but I commented if you would look at things this way as you look at them.
I really admire you, I learned a lot when it comes to horses, but football works differently
I have tried this method and the results are mixed, 50/50 mostly. Even if I bet on one team or if I apply this strategy to several different teams
The number of goals in a match is determined in a completely different way. There is a saying in my country
After the battle are all generals....
This means that after the game we will always find a reason in the statistics why the number of goals is small or large.Especially if we look far enough into the past to confirm what we need to confirm Statistics in football have a completely different meaning but I do not go deep because this is not the place or time.
I see that I am the only one who does not agree with your way of thinking, but that does not mean that I do not respect you .... Football is an amazing sport and very simple. People complicate things a lot.
The problem I have is I have immense amounts of knowledge and it's just impossible to get across all concepts in a short video, so I have to summarise.
So I think it's possible to pick holes in any video I do. But you have to realise most people are starting at a lower level and need to work up to more complicated concepts.
It's not that I don't know all the detail, it's just that I have to present it in a certain way.
why lie people if you are so good why dont trade and make money why take money from people for learn trade show people demonstration how you trade 8 hours and make money in live video because i know if you can make money not lose your time for make clips in you tube you want have a many folowers for take money from advertising have a 3 way to make money value betting ,trading and arbitrage it is not to predict winner it is to take good odds this is only way for make profit
I'll never understand comments like this. I've been betting and trading successully for decades and have made a lot of money from it and I'm still betting millions a week in busy weeks.
The revenue I get from UA-cam is TINY, neglible in comparison.
When I put videos up, I'm sharing knowledge I've acquired over many years that I've used.
I've done videos on value betting, but to find value you need to know what the price is what is what I'm showing here.
It's odd, but sort of reassuring that people still can't understand what I do and why. I make a living in the markets, everything else is secondary.
@@betangeltv if you trade milions you have not time for make clips i work this from 10 years and i know what time need for make this im not some of this people if you think if you live in market i create market how many bookies regulate odds when you betting no one sharp player share his knowledge especially against payment because they make much more from betting
There isn't a debate to be had here. I am very real. I know UA-cam is populated with a load bluffers, but you are actually chatting to somebody that is doing this on a large scale.
I only use betting exchanges. I was one of Betfair's first customers and full time users. Just this last Saturday I placed trades of over £1m in total.
I always find it insane that rather than ask questions people continue to doubt what I do over 20 years after I started doing it.
It's really odd, but taught me a valuable lesson about the way the market works. So I'm very grateful for that at least.