Low growth budget will destroy Starmer's re-election chances | Sir John Curtice analysis

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  • Опубліковано 4 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 147

  • @alastairharris1866
    @alastairharris1866 3 дні тому +39

    If you think that Starmer had a chance at re-election even before the budget, then you are in the wrong job!

    • @tomburroughes9834
      @tomburroughes9834 3 дні тому +4

      He may not even make the full term, if polls are terrible and Labour does badly next May in local polls and then loses by-elections.

    • @seamuspadraigsanders431
      @seamuspadraigsanders431 3 дні тому

      The issue is the clones that will take their place.
      If Farage gets in world markets will turn against him, or he will turn against us 😅

    • @andrewwalker3312
      @andrewwalker3312 2 дні тому +2

      if you did think he had a chance then hes certainly finished after it

    • @JamJam0189
      @JamJam0189 14 годин тому

      I don't think the Conservatives will win in 2029 either so who will win, I would predict hung parliament, the Conservatives move further right, could see Reform UK vote holding up and more voting for Green instead of Labour.

    • @seamuspadraigsanders431
      @seamuspadraigsanders431 14 годин тому

      @JamJam0189 Labour will win, around 10-20 per cent less vote.

  • @garymitchell5899
    @garymitchell5899 3 дні тому +38

    The idea that a nominal 1p off beer makes any difference whatsoever, especially when landlords will have to pass on higher NI and other costs, is facile.
    Get out of the 1970's, John.

    • @garymitchell5899
      @garymitchell5899 3 дні тому +5

      Drink five pints for c£25 but save 5p. It's just ridiculous even ignoring the additional costs

    • @johnfeaaccount3639
      @johnfeaaccount3639 3 дні тому +2

      1970's! 1870's more like...totally agree with your assessment though and they had the audacity to cheer and whoop when she announced it. Utterly ridiculous...

    • @1ForTheShieldz
      @1ForTheShieldz 3 дні тому

      Hey I saved £1 this week! Don't knock it! I'll catch a bus home with it rather than drive tonight 😂

    • @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn
      @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn 3 дні тому

      It's 4p, as it also wasn't uprated with inflation.

    • @garymitchell5899
      @garymitchell5899 3 дні тому

      @@KevenHutchinson-gt1nn "Assuming 100% pass through to prices wherever alcohol is purchased, from 1 February 2025 the tax on a typical 4.58% alcohol by volume pint of draught beer (average strength) will be 1 pence lower"

  • @mikejackson459
    @mikejackson459 3 дні тому +18

    Same old Labour. There will be 'no money left, again!. An inept government that doesn't understand basic economics or business. Expect a big crisis soon.

    • @simony2801
      @simony2801 2 дні тому

      You mean we’ll have no money left.

    • @TheGava4
      @TheGava4 2 дні тому

      Have you forgot the LAST FOURTEEN YEARS??

    • @Robert-vw3od
      @Robert-vw3od 2 дні тому

      To be fair, they have inherited a disaster- It doesn’t matter who is in power they are both equally as bad because they are not going to do anything radical like rebalance the economy appropriately Tax the extremely wealthy or build millions and millions of affordable houses

  • @KevTheImpaler
    @KevTheImpaler 3 дні тому +18

    Rachel Reeve's budget could barely be more anti-growth. Shoved up tax, shoved up borrowing, promised it on the NHS which is a black hole. Told anyone running a family business they may as well not bother expand too much because their kids will have to pay inheritance tax on it.

    • @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn
      @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn 3 дні тому

      The OBR forcast growth to increase by an extra 1.4% later in the decade as a result of increased capital spending.

    • @SisterAbdullahX
      @SisterAbdullahX 3 дні тому

      @@KevenHutchinson-gt1nnExactly! 1.4% is shite!

    • @ladygardener100
      @ladygardener100 3 дні тому

      The government has no idea how to run a country, fiscally or any other way. They have managed to allow people to dabble with economics who are not economists, and a PM who can't cope with debate. Integrity means taking bribes before you are a PM, and immediately aranging your golden pension.

    • @ladygardener100
      @ladygardener100 3 дні тому

      I actually need to speak you a person when I want an appointment with a GP. Employing people is a good idea,

    • @ladygardener100
      @ladygardener100 3 дні тому

      We all accept the NHS is expensive, how could it be otherwise?

  • @aficio698
    @aficio698 3 дні тому +6

    Not only do I pay privately for a dentist (no NHS available) now expecting to pay more for his NI increases. Never been given the opportunity to opt out my NI deductions. So to say does not affect working people is another lie!

  • @LoneSheWolf09
    @LoneSheWolf09 3 дні тому +8

    Definitely will be a 1term government.

    • @JamJam0189
      @JamJam0189 14 годин тому

      I don't think the Conservatives will win in 2029 either so who will win, I would predict hung parliament, the Conservatives move further right, could see Reform UK vote holding up and more voting for Green instead of Labour.
      It's better than an increase which predictions suggested, same with fuel tax increase it was frozen yet again. If they'd have gone for more investment for a 'higher growth budget' the increase in tax would be higher than 1993 and they'd be complaining about that especially a wealth tax, I'd support that but the Labour Party are not led by Corbyn anymore and and not following anything close to a Scandi model it's more New Labour centrism.

  • @jacquisimpson9448
    @jacquisimpson9448 3 дні тому +22

    Vote Reform!

  • @Wearenotreallyhere
    @Wearenotreallyhere 3 дні тому +5

    Is the 1p off the pint supposed to be a joke? Not sure where the polls took place but most people in the real world of the private sector think the budget stinks, that it’s totally weighted against the private sector and that the £25 billion NI raise is a sledgehammer on business to crack a nut. I’ll take both Martin Lewis’s and Andrew Neil’s much more realistic views on the budget than Mr Posh academic.

  • @Andy1119
    @Andy1119 3 дні тому +19

    Starmer doesn't care. He'll get as much out of this for him and his pals as he can

    • @laxeystu8096
      @laxeystu8096 21 годину тому

      What does this even mean?
      Starmer wants to be reelected but there are other priorities
      He's certainly not in it for himself, and he could earn 10x more outside parliament

    • @Andy1119
      @Andy1119 21 годину тому

      @laxeystu8096 just you keep telling yourself that

    • @laxeystu8096
      @laxeystu8096 21 годину тому

      @@Andy1119 Politicians are not usually 'in it for themselves'- just tell me how?
      Most are already rich before going into politics, and they get richer afterwards
      It's an incredibly hard job

    • @Andy1119
      @Andy1119 20 годин тому

      @laxeystu8096 wow, I'd like to live in your reality. Ngl

    • @laxeystu8096
      @laxeystu8096 20 годин тому

      @Andy1119 It's the version you get when you read hundreds of political articles/books over 25 years.
      Where are your examples of politicians and Prime Ministers 'in it for themselves'? Tell me

  • @johnparnell8571
    @johnparnell8571 2 дні тому +1

    The personal allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021 and is due to remain frozen until 2027/28.

  • @roberthuntley1090
    @roberthuntley1090 3 дні тому +10

    As well as GPs, I assume the dentists, opticians and so on will all be faced with increased NI costs.

    • @simonchalker3863
      @simonchalker3863 3 дні тому +1

      The NHS dentistry fees are capped by government so there is no capacity to pass on costs to ‘customers’. The system is already economically unviable, hence no takers when more activity was commissioned by Tories. Many of us quit NHS dentistry after the last Labour govt drove the final nail into its coffin in 2006. This budget should completely finish off the final few beleaguered NHS dental practices as wages are the biggest cost. As a private dentist, I suppose I should be happy that Labour are crushing the competition even more but I’ve taught young dentists for much of my career and I see them leaving the profession or the country in ever increasing numbers.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@simonchalker3863 Then we should change the system and make taking NHS patients a requirement of a license to practise in UK. Profiteering private dentists are the big problem. One tried to offer me a teeth straightening treatment........for 4 grand. I laughed in his face and walked out. I had another who was so bad at their job that they accidentally cut my mouth during treatment. His solution? He took me to the nearest A&E to sort me out. When it goes wrong, its always the NHS who has to pick up the slack, they never want to pay for it themselves.

  • @TroyaE117
    @TroyaE117 3 дні тому +11

    40 billion £ spread out over the population of 66 million is £606 for every person in this country. So for every family of 4 that amounts to £2400 EXTRA taxes on top of all the other taxes we have to pay. And not every family works for a living. Not all of them do. And the majority of those tax rises fall on employment, National Insurance. Sneakily "disguised" as "a tax on employers". People pay taxes. Not employers. Be not fooled. People have to pay them.

    • @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn
      @KevenHutchinson-gt1nn 3 дні тому

      Taxes are not just levied on families.

    • @Peter-je6td
      @Peter-je6td 3 дні тому

      ​​@@KevenHutchinson-gt1nnno business exists without people who buy their product so a tax on business is a tax on people by default

    • @skyblazeeterno
      @skyblazeeterno 3 дні тому

      You're totally wrong about the national insurance. I think the budget is bad though and Labour seem petrified of taxing the super rich

    • @TroyaE117
      @TroyaE117 3 дні тому

      ​@@skyblazeeterno The old would- be "socialist" cure-all. Tax somebody else. How wonderfully imaginative !!!

    • @skyblazeeterno
      @skyblazeeterno 3 дні тому

      @@TroyaE117 it doesnt have to be imaginative. its not rocket science and it works

  • @Martynjs
    @Martynjs 3 дні тому +8

    Businesses face increased costs (especially because of the ridiculous and unnecessary cost of energy) which will inhibit investment and expansion, and will also reduce the likelihood of job creation. Of course the economy will not grow - at best it will stagnate.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      Yep, all facilitated by Ofgem who are in the pockets of the energy barons

  • @petertaylor1447
    @petertaylor1447 2 дні тому +2

    Before the General Election, we bought into both Conservative and Labour claims that increased investment in public services would be funded through economic growth. Now the Labour Party has given up on growth and reverted to high tax on businesses and spend - not investment.

    • @JamJam0189
      @JamJam0189 14 годин тому

      You need more tax to have the money to invest, where were you in 1993 with similar tax increases!
      It's better than an increase which predictions suggested, same with fuel tax increase it was frozen yet again. If they'd have gone for more investment for a 'higher growth budget' the increase in tax would be higher than 1993 and they'd be complaining about that especially a wealth tax, I'd support that but the Labour Party are not led by Corbyn anymore and and not following anything close to a Scandi model it's more New Labour centrism.

  • @mygoogle1482
    @mygoogle1482 3 дні тому +5

    Ploughing money into the NHS will do very little to get people off sickness benefit back into work. There is only one way to do this and it won’t be nice for the large majority of people who shouldn’t be on sick benefit because they’re perfectly healthy to work, they just don’t feel like working
    as they’re a bit upset or a bit depressed. Letting them stay exactly where they are supported by all of us will change nothing

    • @mygoogle1482
      @mygoogle1482 3 дні тому

      We need to fundamentally change our healthcare system in the UK. All we are doing is ploughing more money into a broken corrupted and pretty useless system. We are getting more chronically ill and we are buying more more drugs. If you want people to be healthy are medical care system needs to fundamentally involve. Doctors need retraining in metabolic health and how to prevent us through nutrition and lifestyle becoming ill. Instead of what they currently do which is push drugs to the profit of the food and pharmaceutical industry. Stop sticking money into system that is making us ill not better.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      How do sick people get back to work if they cant get a GPs appointment?

    • @mygoogle1482
      @mygoogle1482 День тому

      @@glostergloster6945if they’re that ill go to hospital. Many health complications are caused by obesity which is lifestyle and nutrition/ diet related. Both are freeish and come with no prescription required but require personal accountability.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@mygoogle1482 But thats the point, hospital isnt supposed to be for people who need a GP appointment. Thats why A&E is that clogged up.

    • @mygoogle1482
      @mygoogle1482 День тому

      @@glostergloster6945 no the point is if people are so ill they ca nt work a GP appointment is going to do sweet FA for them. The real point again is obesity is set to cost this country billions. This is a problem that requires individual responsibility and accountability expecting the state to solve your problems that you have with food which is the biggest addiction in our country is at the core of preventing people requiring endless visits to the GP for pointless little problems that they claim they can’t work with. There is no doubt there are many who are looking at this safety net as their viable way forward rather than how do I get healthy? How do I maintain my own lifestyle, without requiring the state to fundamentally underpin my entire existence ? Clearly there are some who could not do this and we should not expect to do this. There are many who could and should and need to be educated and incentivised to do so. Getting them a GP’s appointment is irrelevant to this you just keep them on the sick note, Train.

  • @wordfromabove7176
    @wordfromabove7176 3 дні тому +1

    Think people forget that reform were basically going to raise taxes 10 times that of Labour and tories

  • @Pastaface
    @Pastaface 2 дні тому +1

    For every 700 pints of beer you drink - you kind of get one free. What's not to love?

  • @ladygardener100
    @ladygardener100 3 дні тому +2

    Raising the price of bus fares will lead to lower usage, for people who rely on buses, it means a poorer service in the long term. Dropping the price of beer by 1p, how long did they debate this, its rubbish, do they think anyone will go to a pub for cheap beer!

  • @abstract33
    @abstract33 3 дні тому +3

    If so many people are in food poverty why are weights going up so fast?

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      Bad diets, cheap processed food

    • @abstract33
      @abstract33 День тому

      @glostergloster6945 you could eat less to find your weight equilibrium. Eating 2/3 bowl of chips does not make sense.because only excess food puts on weight.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@abstract33 Its not just about portions its whats in the food. Cheap processed food contains a lot of salt and sugar. Sugar in particular makes you put on more weight even if you dont have much of it. Thats why poor people tend to be overweight.

    • @abstract33
      @abstract33 День тому

      @glostergloster6945 Sounds like comfort eating or despair eating. We could agree to differ on eating motives because if you take in more calories than the body needs the excess calories are laid down as fat, no ifs no buts.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@abstract33 A lot of the latest research shows it isnt actually as simple as that. Its not just about calories and quantity but how your body reacts to do. For example, eating high levels of sugar raises your LDL cholesterol which tells your body to store fat. You dont have to eat much for this to happen. Thats why you get these people who are supposedly on diets but are still over weight. If you want a healthier society you need to cut out processed foods, even if that means the price of food goes up.

  • @KevTheImpaler
    @KevTheImpaler 3 дні тому +6

    Mental health issues, the bad back for people who don't do manual work.

  • @Schiltron
    @Schiltron 2 дні тому +1

    Mental Elf will soon consume 50% of the Benefits budget. Nice one! When I was in the Army, all the skivers in the regiment went to the M.O (medical officer) complaining of a bad back because they knew there was no way to prove if it was damaged or not. Now the skivers favourite complaint in our modern society is related to mental elf. I imagine this comment will be a trigger for a quick dose of PTSD among some....LOL

  • @lindawilding5516
    @lindawilding5516 3 дні тому +2

    It smacks of patting the pub goers heads, 1p pathetic, vote reform

  • @craigstevens8064
    @craigstevens8064 3 дні тому +1

    No growth !!

  • @glostergloster6945
    @glostergloster6945 День тому

    Heres a way to deliver growth, rejoin the Single Market, cut barriers to trade for business, lower brexit red tape

  • @TroyaE117
    @TroyaE117 3 дні тому

    Special treatment for GPs? Private contractors getting special treatment? Dentists too? But not private hospitals?

  • @coderider3022
    @coderider3022 3 дні тому

    Voters know what they don’t want and someone else has to pay. It’s their Lib Dem / student fees moment.

  • @timbrown1897
    @timbrown1897 3 дні тому

    we could rejoin the EU and pay twice the price for food like in the EU to pay for it it would stop the obesity

  • @ianlewis2813
    @ianlewis2813 2 дні тому +2

    Penny off a pint of beer😂😂😂 100 pints a week to save a £1 😂😂😂
    Labour 😂😂😂

    • @gregjones-x8c
      @gregjones-x8c 19 годин тому

      BRILLIANT! LOL! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • @JamJam0189
      @JamJam0189 14 годин тому

      It's better than an increase which predictions suggested, same with fuel tax increase it was frozen yet again. If they'd have gone for more investment for a 'higher growth budget' the increase in tax would be higher than 1993 and they'd be complaining about that especially a wealth tax, I'd support that but the Labour Party are not led by Corbyn anymore and and not following anything close to a Scandi model it's more New Labour centrism.

  • @richardjamesdigance3838
    @richardjamesdigance3838 3 дні тому +1

    Talk about stating the bloomimg obvious - she has not got a clue about motivating growth in the economy

  • @alistairrobinson3865
    @alistairrobinson3865 3 дні тому

    The IHT charges for farmers doesn’t come until 2027, perfectly designed to delay until after next election, but to prop the forecast up in the meantime….

    • @KevTheImpaler
      @KevTheImpaler 3 дні тому +1

      @alistairrobinson3865 That's good. Maybe this terrible proposal can be reversed before it comes into effect.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@KevTheImpaler Why is it terrible? Everyone else has to pay IHT, why not wealthy landowners?

    • @KevTheImpaler
      @KevTheImpaler День тому

      ​@glostergloster6945 Farmers do not earn much compared to the paper value of the acres they own. If farmers want to hand down their farms to their sons then food prices will have to go up.

    • @glostergloster6945
      @glostergloster6945 День тому

      @@KevTheImpaler Good thing we have cheap food coming in from the rest of the world with all these brexit trade deals then. Farmers chopped off their own legs when they voted for Brexit. I dont have much sympathy for them

    • @alistairrobinson3865
      @alistairrobinson3865 День тому

      @@glostergloster6945 smaller farmers will be forced to sell their farms to pay the IHT most likely resulting in greater consolidation Ie hedge funds, private equity and super rich owning everything and controlling even more of our food supply, not good

  • @Robert-vw3od
    @Robert-vw3od 2 дні тому

    The British people are looking for answers, but the reality is they have continually voted for people with short term economic policies. Britain continually looks towards the United States of America. The British values people want do not tie in with globalisation. infrastructure is crumbling because of the last 15 years And these people are running on the overdraft. that’s what happens when you have a country dependent on cheap goods made abroad the service sector and so much of the economy being about house prices or based solely in the Southeast. The latest Idiots can do very little about that - they will be replaced by more of the same garbage in four years time.

  • @KevTheImpaler
    @KevTheImpaler 3 дні тому

    I was getting excited. Reform only won a by election on a council seat.

  • @christophernicol4762
    @christophernicol4762 3 дні тому

    This man poses as an independent ‘expert’. He is a bought and paid for SNP supporter.

  • @markedmondson394
    @markedmondson394 3 дні тому +1

    Not quite matching up to the guru image he wants to cultivate.

  • @1ForTheShieldz
    @1ForTheShieldz 3 дні тому

    Push the gps over.. so? What about all the businesses and peoples lives about to be pushed over of small family run businesses and one man bands, gps can get work easily, normal joe has secured debt!

  • @catherinemartin6258
    @catherinemartin6258 3 дні тому +1

    Let’s wait and see

    • @1ForTheShieldz
      @1ForTheShieldz 3 дні тому +1

      See what! Interest rates have been flying up today and yesterday! Already added 3,000 to the average mortgage, 12k so over the length of this government and that's just in 2 days! I'd rather we had another election and forget this mess ever occurred.

  • @Pirake123
    @Pirake123 3 дні тому +1

    Need to rejoin EU customs union, offer tax breaks for new companies or projects in tech, remove planning restrictions and focus on smaller capital projects that align with an overall strategy.

    • @lindawilding5516
      @lindawilding5516 3 дні тому

      We voted to leave

    • @steptay
      @steptay 3 дні тому

      You’re delusional. EU growth is also pathetic 1% per quarter & the whole of the eu now only counts for 13% of world GDP. Socialism whether here or in Brussels is a failed ideology. Stop living in the past the world is moving on!

    • @Peter-je6td
      @Peter-je6td 3 дні тому +1

      No just leave and go to the EU if you want to rejoin no one stopping you

    • @mikejackson459
      @mikejackson459 3 дні тому

      No way!

    • @TomTomicMic
      @TomTomicMic 3 дні тому

      The EU overall and particularly in Germany is going through a bigger crisis than the UK, their borders are extremely porous and they are moving right wing, they are expected to decline economically by 2030 in World terms as a block because they are a dysfunctional cartel led by the weakest link which currently is Hungary!?!

  • @kevinfrost1579
    @kevinfrost1579 2 дні тому +1

    I believe the key part of John Curtice’s analysis here is that there is a contrast regards the short-term (in his words the next 2 years) and the long term ……”it’s another matter”. Taken overall I think the short term may be considerably shorter than he thinks for these reasons :
    1. Despite sizeable success in numbers of seats the Labour Party were the happen-chance beneficiaries of a split vote and a remove the Tories election, not any significant increase of approval in their own name. Many Labour M.P’s are in vulnerable constituencies in electoral terms.
    2. Now in power they’ve comprehensively cast themselves into the role of a dead end government mired in sleaze (outdoing the Tories), acting as an authoritarian administration of double standards, focused on an ideologically driven class war at the expense of the UK electorate, while evidently filling their own pockets…….not a recipe for electoral or personal popularity.
    3. Add in economic illiteracy ….being kind …..combined with overwhelming levels of hubris and a transparent unwillingness to be straight with all sections of the electorate.
    4. Significant numbers of voters, particularly those the Labour Party are dependent upon for re-election to government, will punish non delivery in a government induced shrinking /stagnant economy…………just watch the next wipe out in the next local government elections (and contrary to normal that could be significant in general election terms where there’s potential for a replacement second party)
    5. Political in-fighting likely to re-surface in the PLP especially where insurmountable sleaze or unsupportable political mis-steps emerge and sitting MP’s think of their own viability, in short a re-run of the demise of the Tory party.
    Not a very promising prospect.
    Would not be surprised to see the cracks emerging before the first anniversary, personal opinion.

  • @TimesFM4532
    @TimesFM4532 3 дні тому

    The last few videos indicates Murdock given his orders