*"Never sell on War news"* and this is no small War easily the biggest War in human History over 1000 days continuous Russia against Ukraine now has exploded upon The Syria. Imagine if you can a City of 800,000 people suddenly abandoned that is Aleppo Syria in just the past 48 Hours. Whatever caused that clearly will be heading towards Damascus...and elsewhere 😊😊
Level headed, cogent and clear answers to questions. That kinda says that this is not only a guy who knows what he's talking about but isn't working from a particular agenda or attempting to sell particular outcomes. Thanks for this.
IMO he is more right than wrong. Nothing goes up forever unless you clear the atmosphere and all gravitational pulls.. Then you are into space. Markets have never cleared that and have always corrected. It is just a matter of timing.
There are no investors any more. Its all speculation. Betting on companies like nVidia for their earnings for 200 years. Hmm. This time it will be different. "Stocks are going up forever", some wise guy said on Oct 23rd 1929..
when you call for the depression all this time, and it happens 4 years down the road, you are not really right, are you? that means somebody is making a killing for 4 more years.
Employment is definitely the most strangely behaving data set this business cycle. If unemployment was 5-6% and initial claims were at 400k, it would line up perfectly with manufacturing, freight, and other leading economy macro data, and it would also line up with the Fed undergoing a serious easing cycle. We're not seeing that. Whether it's more about Uber and Doordash, or more people living off the income of friends and family, or living off past savings, I'm not sure.
Well, according to the plan, we are supposed to have an eventual "explosion" of unemployment due to inflation, AI, banking crisis, credit crisis, supply chain crisis, etc. Once unemployment skyrockets, the plan shows the stock market is going to collapse. Do we know exactly "when" this is going to happen? No. However, it's the 5th stage of the Great Reset.
It's astonishing how many voters cannot see this, and continue to blame "immigrants, commies, baby killers, and eco-nuts" for our socioeconomic problems. Until the broad middle-class understands what's been happening to their collective wealth for the last 40 years, nothing will change. The oligarch-plutocrat class will continue to suck their wealth and liberty until we no longer have the liberty this country was founded upon.
LOL I recall friends not investing in 2009 or 2010 because we had so much debt. Of course they held out until the dow hit 30,000 and missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Debt is not a problem as long we remain productive and attractive for foreign buyers.
I still remember his interview with Adam 4yr ago. Also back then he had some hard numbers on market downturn, one example “Gold at 900$”, which didn’t age well. I would take il his word with a heavy grain of salt, but still interesting interview
The 'problem' is most economists have been suggesting a recession for years, but as soon as we get close to it, the printing presses are started and kick it forward through government borrowing. Economists don't really factor in the printing presses because it is policy not economics. The thing that has changed this time around is that there is no appetite to lend to the US government (nor pretty much any other government) because there are better gains to be had elsewhere, plus the personal liquidity keeping the stock markets rising is not limitless (and will probably run out very soon), plus the huge existing deficits. So, an actual correction and recession is much more likely now. The best we can hope for is a slow ride down, but we'll probably get a sharp fall IMO
It is always about timing, not about whether the sun will come up tomorrow or set thereafter.. There are cycles. How stretched can the rubber band get?
You can always count on the bear with this guy. Following Wealthion really messed me up for a while. Truth be told, if the market corrected 50% now, I would still be ahead of when this guy (and Snider, Schiff, Gammon, SVM, Booth etc) started spewing BS. If it wasn't for Fedguy Joseph Wang and Cross Border Capital Michael Howell, I would have bought these guys BS longer. Lesson learned... Head shift to Joseph Carlson too.... maybe UA-cam investing is not a great idea Ha HA.
This time *IS* different, because at no other point in recent history we have been deficit spending at 7%/GDP while at 4% unemployment, record low credit spreads, SP500 at record highs and the Fed starting the rate cut cycle!!! We have never seen this level of juicing.
I often wonder what the best investment opportunities are right now. There are many opinions, but I’ve found that soon after, those opinions don't seem to matter as the market takes an entirely different turn from what was predicted.
Stocks are overrated at the moment. Consider putting 5% in crypto, the rest in cash, and invest in gold. Wait for the stock, property, and land prices to crash, then buy after they've been at the bottom for 7 to 12 months.
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
Kimberly Grace Flanagan is the CFA I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I am employed by the world's largest freight forwarder. Air and Ocean imports / exports have declined drastically starting the end of 2023 and have continued their descent in 2024. Main stream media has not reported accurate financial and employment data most likely due to fear of what will happen to the markets. I've been patiently sitting in cash on the sideline waiting for the market to correct as I believe it is overvalued significantly with the exception of my long position in gold. Yes, I may be a fool for missing out on the great bull market run but I will remain patient. Valuations are also sky high....strange times. Stay money safe ..Gold is king
@@banana-lakefishing6077 Michael Burry shorted the 2006 and 2007 markets. He also had a bunch of shorts up against the 2023 markets, and deleted his twitter. "They saw it, and as a response they shorted some of the biggest market rallies in history" doesn't sound as cool for a movie intro, though
In the mid 2000 after 2 decades on Wall Street as a bond trader ... I remember landscapers showing me their gains in their equities portfolios and waitresses giving me stock tips and investment advice ... ie: "stonks only go up" ... then I'd ask them where they were, what the were doing in October 87 ? ... or how much money they were managing ? .... then I look at the comments here and other video's .... lol .... the next crash will be a black swan even, triggering billions of losses via machine trading ... this time it will be instantaneous ... and I'm not sure most will survive it
What’s different this time compared to history is that the Fed knows quantitative easing the printing of money prevents severe crashes and each time they use this inflationary weapon they drive greater adoption of Crypto
@@CliffPrice-fe9blthe Fed is too slow. Sell programs will kick in and it will be over before the Fed has their first meeting. That’s also what is different.
@ It’s a good point but these automatic trading signals also start buying at certain low levels equally fast… you sometimes see these massive spikes up and down in an instant way outside normal price movements and they can be in either direction up or down… So I’m not sure the whole market will tank in an instant as predicted. I think also you always have the bargain hunters in retail and regular investors who dollar cost average no matter what the market is doing. I don’t think anyone knows for absolute certainty what will happen
@ I agree it won’t be instant but way way faster than it used to be. My argument is only that the Fed is too slow and its moves take a year to take effect. It won’t blunt it very much. Some amount yes, but that will only make it last longer so they have to pick their poison.
I have been following The Zeberg Report since March 2022, I take everything he predicts with a grain of salt, I would have done better with a coin flip. He does really well explaining things that have already happened, which is still insightful.
Perhaps I am living in another world, but what we are experiencing is a booming economy, booming stock market and a booming luxury real estate market. Powell has done a good job of making the rich even richer. Just yesterday one of our clients said that he didn't care what the price of goods are, he is willing to pay it because he makes so much money. That is the sentiment we are hearing more often than one might believe. Powell continued rate cutting will simply make things worse.
People have been talking about it since 2016. Around '16/'17 Chyna allegedly did something to push it off again, then in '19 USA pulled the COVID trick to push itnoff again. What will happen this time.
Doom and gloom for clicks and profit. Doom and gloom sells on UA-cam it appeals to the ignorant that rather believe what they are spoon fed on social media than try to comprehend reality
Better to be informed and nervous about the economy than just nervous about it. 2.5 years ago I had no PMs, weapons, long term food storage (and ceramic water filters) or financial education other than high school economics. I understand what is coming and whilst I do not consider myself an end of world prepper, I am as prepared as I can be. The fact that some random channel about cats can have a million subscribers and millions of views whilst wonderful informative channels such as this have 100k subscribers if they are lucky blows what little mind I have left. The Orange Voldemort can not change what is coming. He can only make it somewhat better or go all Hoover and make it much worse than it has to be.
@@GreenspudTrades If you follow Zeberg, he's been long all year, he's been heavily invested in Crypto and Bitcoin for most of this year and he has said in interview after interview that he would be through most of the end of the year. He is NOT a perma-bear.
Adam. Been listening to you since you were on the other channel, and followed you here. Also been a subscriber to Henrik’s Serivce for about 1.5yrs and he has been spot on so far. Glad to see you have him in your channel!!!
Adam has had on so many doom people who say inflation will return and that the economy and stock market will collapse that I find it hard to believe them now. If we get a pullback, it will probably be a short lived correction before the Feds step in and bail out the assets. Inflation higher than it used to be, probably, but maybe not hyperinflation. This is the same story we've been hearing since 2022.
The rich want assets prices to go up. Markets are always like a ball under water, they rise. Someday shit will hit the fan, but by then perma bears will still have never made money
That's great. A 55% downturn even without the risks and impacts from global warming inadequately factored in to the market. And those risks and impacts are guaranteed and guaranteed to get worse, and worse still for many decades and decades.
I know at some point a bull market ends and a bear begins, it goes on and on... I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
In December 2023, Henrik was on Jay Martin, and he said a recession would start by May 2024. He was completely wrong. He makes good points, but good points with bad timing will lose you money.
There is no business cycle, there are no "recessions" as the term was traditionally used. Now it is only govt printing and spending. 330 billion in new deficit spending every month, and growing daily They will print and spend as long as they are allowed, and will do whatever is possible to keep it going. The only question is how long they can keep it up for. Look to Argentina's story to see the future.
It will continue until the people buying the bonds to fund it start demanding higher and higher rates. Once that pops it’s game over. I have no idea when that will be.
I think precious metals are telling us the endgame after gold skyrocketed above $2000. The world is going to be splintered more than it already is amongst the people who actually hold rare things. Rare cars, rare artworks, but the best most valuable collectibles will become numismatic gold bullion as the purchasing power of the world’s 99% diminishes drastically. I think the timeframe for this will be sooner than people think.
Agreed. Hopefully people pick up on this and it gets a name and is universally derided as bad policy. Why? Because calling it a recession doesn't change the reality for most people. The private labor market and many industries are already acting like we're in a (minor) recession. You can call it the great depression or best economy ever, it doesn't change the reality that stuff isn't good
The real economy doesn't lie. Meanwhile recessions don't happen; they are announced. Opportunistically. If possible, with something big to blame them on. Thanks for this update!
Bull shit. 57% of investors expect stock prices to go up in 2025. That's the HIGHEST level we've ever since since recording starting in 1987. We're usually below 50%.
Good luck with that since 99% of media is ridiculously one-sided, being perma-bull. I follow all of the government reports and notice CNBC actively NOT reporting anything that sounds negative. Inversing the media now = sell
Thanks to you, I now have realistic expectations for this bull run. I entered crypto earlier this year, and your insights on cycles and market connections have been invaluable. I now understand how global markets impact crypto, so I'm watching traditional market tops closely. Without your guidance, I’d probably be holding blindly instead of actively managing my positions. Growing my portfolio from 2.3 BTC to 24 BTC in a few months has been incredible. Special thanks to Seren Wintersun for her expertise, which has been essential in navigating this complex landscape.
Trading without professional guide... Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
So this current administration let in millions of noncitizens and they’re not added to the unemployment data? Shouldn’t there be some consideration for the impact on those people?
Why should they be on the unemployed data? The state and federal government classifies them as "asylum seekers" or "undocumented workers", and gives them weekly checks + medicaid, hotel accomodations, etc. Does the government give this to people in your unemployed list?
The scary thing is, I agree with most of the things said. The thing is that a lot of people are seeing the same, which may influence it all. I see the bottom dropping out about March
Good guest. Very anaylitical. I think very relevant is the fact that the American consumer is up to 1.17 trillion dollars of debt. Average household almost 8K. One has to ask themselves what happens when the credit market dries up. Your guest indicated he thinks it will.
It's good to hear another bear perspective, thanks. Personally though, I must say I am not a fan of discussions that encourage fear and moving money around. That is how wall street, financial advisors, etc, makes money, when money is moved due to fear and uncertainty. Stick to your plan(I hope you have one), stay calm, stop reacting. Slow and steady, boring, dollar cost averaging the general market is what builds wealth, oh and the biggest thing is avoiding parasitic financial advisors that charge % based fees(this channel tries very hard to herd people into their advisors). If you're truly worried about a crash then you should have already been hedged, such as 60/40 or 50/50 stocks & bonds. Giving you a historical return of 9.1% & 8.7% respectively since 1926.
The fear is justified. We're at $36 trillion and the interest on the debt exceeds $1 trillion. Maybe those numbers don't mean anything to you. If they did, they would INSTILL fear in you as well as a need as to how to protect yourself when we crash and burn. You sound like a, "hear, speak and say no evil" investor. Someone that sticks their head into the sand because uncertainty is too painful. If you're not willing to read the trend, the economy and historical references, you're going to be UNPREPARED and LOSE.
do you work? No one is hiring, it's hiring freezes and layoffs all over the place, drops in sales, etc. unless you're big tech or some small company servicing rich people. Real economy is much worse than it was in let's say 2021
Are stock values overvalued or does inflation effect even the price of stocks? Something to think about. He talks about a bubble, but is long Bitcoin. You can't have deflation when you have the ability to print money.
The "inflation makes stocks go up" argument is that earnings go up with inflation since the dollar is worth less. The scary part is that that isn't really happening. This insane manic rally was based on a whopping 5.8% earnings growth
they haven't dropped any interest rates on credit cards, and those in charge of how this is going to go, want things to stabilize at these rates, normalizing this higher output for the same products and services.
Zeberg went bullish in October 2022 when the S&P500 bottomed around 3500, and he predicted at that time that the S&P500 would melt up to around 6 k toward the end of 2024.
Thanks for taking the time to let us know that you won’t be watching the video. I think I speak for everyone when I say we’re all greatly interested in your opinion.
Always concerning when to hear a financial forecaster say, "There is no doubt." I thought the doubt was the whole point and you can express your convictions in the market easily enough, then say 'I told you so' while standing behind your recently stacked millions.
How about... Step1: Ease slowly into inverted ETFs to start hedging your portfolio. Step 2: When the sh*t starts hitting the fan, start selling the longs. Step 1 - around now (S&P >6000). Step 2: when S&P goes to 6300-ish.
I don't know why people wanted to have Henrik on. He is just saying the same thing like the others about recession and all of the trivial that factors into it. The only thing different is that he is from Europe and they don't really know certain details about what is happening in the US, ie the people primarily spent the covid stimulus not saved it.
Yes, I agree with this guy. Yeah inflation migth be the long term theme but right now M2 is flat and we are heading towards recession, expect yields to drop in short to medium term.
@@mrm7309 Look at the M2 charts, as a percent of GDP it's below trend. Recession incoming, the data wasn't great, and now that election is over the economic data will magically deteriorate.
@ Hunter been spot on most of his calls but not all of them of course, yet Adam still has not had him back on his show , I can’t figure out why ( yet he still has guests on that are constantly wrong like Pento )
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*"Never sell on War news"* and this is no small War easily the biggest War in human History over 1000 days continuous Russia against Ukraine now has exploded upon The Syria. Imagine if you can a City of 800,000 people suddenly abandoned that is Aleppo Syria in just the past 48 Hours. Whatever caused that clearly will be heading towards Damascus...and elsewhere 😊😊
We all know that something is wrong but we don't know when it will happen...
Level headed, cogent and clear answers to questions. That kinda says that this is not only a guy who knows what he's talking about but isn't working from a particular agenda or attempting to sell particular outcomes. Thanks for this.
This guy may end up being 100% wrong but I love how he directly answers questions and is not afraid to give timelines. I enjoyed this show.
100% right, bubble go pop
IMO he is more right than wrong. Nothing goes up forever unless you clear the atmosphere and all gravitational pulls.. Then you are into space. Markets have never cleared that and have always corrected. It is just a matter of timing.
no one knows, it's all educated guessing
There are no investors any more. Its all speculation. Betting on companies like nVidia for their earnings for 200 years. Hmm.
This time it will be different. "Stocks are going up forever", some wise guy said on Oct 23rd 1929..
when you call for the depression all this time, and it happens 4 years down the road, you are not really right, are you? that means somebody is making a killing for 4 more years.
Keep track of his predictions and bring him back in March 2025 to discuss
yeah i followed him since 2022 and same story every year. crash imminent blah blah
Unemployment is also being masked by the gig economy, this wasn’t around in 2008.
Exactly. Part time and foreign born jobs have decimated the statistics under the covers for full time jobs for native born people.
Employment is definitely the most strangely behaving data set this business cycle. If unemployment was 5-6% and initial claims were at 400k, it would line up perfectly with manufacturing, freight, and other leading economy macro data, and it would also line up with the Fed undergoing a serious easing cycle. We're not seeing that. Whether it's more about Uber and Doordash, or more people living off the income of friends and family, or living off past savings, I'm not sure.
Bs
Well, according to the plan, we are supposed to have an eventual "explosion" of unemployment due to inflation, AI, banking crisis, credit crisis, supply chain crisis, etc. Once unemployment skyrockets, the plan shows the stock market is going to collapse. Do we know exactly "when" this is going to happen? No. However, it's the 5th stage of the Great Reset.
The government, the public has already spent the future growth way into the future. In short, way too much debt.
It's astonishing how many voters cannot see this, and continue to blame "immigrants, commies, baby killers, and eco-nuts" for our socioeconomic problems. Until the broad middle-class understands what's been happening to their collective wealth for the last 40 years, nothing will change. The oligarch-plutocrat class will continue to suck their wealth and liberty until we no longer have the liberty this country was founded upon.
LOL I recall friends not investing in 2009 or 2010 because we had so much debt. Of course they held out until the dow hit 30,000 and missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Debt is not a problem as long we remain productive and attractive for foreign buyers.
@@smb-zf9bd Well then, maybe it the lack of brains.
Great discussion. Please ask this gentleman to return soon.
I think you are very RIGHT about a severe depression coming, but 99% of the people I talk to, think all is good.
I still remember his interview with Adam 4yr ago. Also back then he had some hard numbers on market downturn, one example “Gold at 900$”, which didn’t age well. I would take il his word with a heavy grain of salt, but still interesting interview
Can't you even see that the markets have been manipulated because of the election ?
They lie on the jobs and other data TO YOUR FACE and you ignore it
I love Henrik Zeberg. I am so glad you have him on as a guest. I always enjoy hearing what he has to say.
Henryk Zeberg told the same story 4 years ago ! His beliefs are constant and he will end up being right but when ?
Someday when were all dead
4 years ago, he laid out his charts. They have been correct and made all of us money who subscribe to his report.
The 'problem' is most economists have been suggesting a recession for years, but as soon as we get close to it, the printing presses are started and kick it forward through government borrowing. Economists don't really factor in the printing presses because it is policy not economics.
The thing that has changed this time around is that there is no appetite to lend to the US government (nor pretty much any other government) because there are better gains to be had elsewhere, plus the personal liquidity keeping the stock markets rising is not limitless (and will probably run out very soon), plus the huge existing deficits.
So, an actual correction and recession is much more likely now. The best we can hope for is a slow ride down, but we'll probably get a sharp fall IMO
@@shambhangal438Also most of our trading partners are already in recession so demand is going down no matter how much they print.
It is always about timing, not about whether the sun will come up tomorrow or set thereafter.. There are cycles. How stretched can the rubber band get?
Yes, Please have Mr. Zeberg back on. He is very intelligent and informed.
Thank you for giving us Henrik Zeberg's views.
Wealthion claimed: Crash in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, now 2025? lmfao.
Expert on saying nothing with flare!!! This guy has like a hundred channels and all blurting out the same wrong BS LOL
Yep, no credibility when your predictions don't come true!
You can always count on the bear with this guy. Following Wealthion really messed me up for a while. Truth be told, if the market corrected 50% now, I would still be ahead of when this guy (and Snider, Schiff, Gammon, SVM, Booth etc) started spewing BS. If it wasn't for Fedguy Joseph Wang and Cross Border Capital Michael Howell, I would have bought these guys BS longer. Lesson learned... Head shift to Joseph Carlson too.... maybe UA-cam investing is not a great idea Ha HA.
YES! Long term unemployment is such a major labor market indicator that is happening. Thank you for bringing this up! We can't shout this out enough.
This time *IS* different, because at no other point in recent history we have been deficit spending at 7%/GDP while at 4% unemployment, record low credit spreads, SP500 at record highs and the Fed starting the rate cut cycle!!! We have never seen this level of juicing.
Really great point, seems like war time spending is here to offset deflation primarily exported by China.
+$34 T in debt and a simultaneous credit/housing/stock bubble that hasn't happened since 1929
Hey UA-cam algo; give this channel more love
Adam - This is another one of your interveiws that's a listen over and over and then over somemore!
I often wonder what the best investment opportunities are right now. There are many opinions, but I’ve found that soon after, those opinions don't seem to matter as the market takes an entirely different turn from what was predicted.
Stocks are overrated at the moment. Consider putting 5% in crypto, the rest in cash, and invest in gold. Wait for the stock, property, and land prices to crash, then buy after they've been at the bottom for 7 to 12 months.
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
How can i reach this person?
Kimberly Grace Flanagan is the CFA I use and im just putting this out here because you asked. You can Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I am employed by the world's largest freight forwarder. Air and Ocean imports / exports have declined drastically starting the end of 2023 and have continued their descent in 2024. Main stream media has not reported accurate financial and employment data most likely due to fear of what will happen to the markets. I've been patiently sitting in cash on the sideline waiting for the market to correct as I believe it is overvalued significantly with the exception of my long position in gold. Yes, I may be a fool for missing out on the great bull market run but I will remain patient. Valuations are also sky high....strange times. Stay money safe ..Gold is king
Top shelf guest. This was enjoyable! Thanks, Adam!
Opening credits of The Big Short:
“They saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do…..They looked”
@@banana-lakefishing6077 Michael Burry shorted the 2006 and 2007 markets. He also had a bunch of shorts up against the 2023 markets, and deleted his twitter.
"They saw it, and as a response they shorted some of the biggest market rallies in history" doesn't sound as cool for a movie intro, though
In the mid 2000 after 2 decades on Wall Street as a bond trader ... I remember landscapers showing me their gains in their equities portfolios and waitresses giving me stock tips and investment advice ... ie: "stonks only go up" ... then I'd ask them where they were, what the were doing in October 87 ? ... or how much money they were managing ? .... then I look at the comments here and other video's .... lol .... the next crash will be a black swan even, triggering billions of losses via machine trading ... this time it will be instantaneous ... and I'm not sure most will survive it
What’s different this time compared to history is that the Fed knows quantitative easing the printing of money prevents severe crashes and each time they use this inflationary weapon they drive greater adoption of Crypto
@@CliffPrice-fe9blCrypto is crashing too
@@CliffPrice-fe9blthe Fed is too slow. Sell programs will kick in and it will be over before the Fed has their first meeting. That’s also what is different.
@ It’s a good point but these automatic trading signals also start buying at certain low levels equally fast… you sometimes see these massive spikes up and down in an instant way outside normal price movements and they can be in either direction up or down… So I’m not sure the whole market will tank in an instant as predicted. I think also you always have the bargain hunters in retail and regular investors who dollar cost average no matter what the market is doing. I don’t think anyone knows for absolute certainty what will happen
@ I agree it won’t be instant but way way faster than it used to be. My argument is only that the Fed is too slow and its moves take a year to take effect. It won’t blunt it very much. Some amount yes, but that will only make it last longer so they have to pick their poison.
Wonderful interview with Henrik! Thanks to you both.
I have been following The Zeberg Report since March 2022, I take everything he predicts with a grain of salt, I would have done better with a coin flip. He does really well explaining things that have already happened, which is still insightful.
Excellent discussion thank you. Not investing advice, but a solid perspective. We all listen and follow the data I hope!
Perhaps I am living in another world, but what we are experiencing is a booming economy, booming stock market and a booming luxury real estate market. Powell has done a good job of making the rich even richer. Just yesterday one of our clients said that he didn't care what the price of goods are, he is willing to pay it because he makes so much money. That is the sentiment we are hearing more often than one might believe. Powell continued rate cutting will simply make things worse.
I've been waiting for 4 years for this recession
You’ll eventually get it. It’s been push off by the huge federal deficit spending which can’t go on forever
I have lost an estimated $500K not being all in waiting for the big drop.
@raesmart3305 your not alone.
People have been talking about it since 2016. Around '16/'17 Chyna allegedly did something to push it off again, then in '19 USA pulled the COVID trick to push itnoff again. What will happen this time.
@raesmart3305 remember, to make up for a 50% drop you'll need to make 100% just to break even. That's not easy, can take years
So far the equities market has been continuing to go up. Apart from Covid it has been 16 years since a meaningful pullback.
Another daily dose of doom.................
Doom and gloom for clicks and profit. Doom and gloom sells on UA-cam it appeals to the ignorant that rather believe what they are spoon fed on social media than try to comprehend reality
Better to be informed and nervous about the economy than just nervous about it. 2.5 years ago I had no PMs, weapons, long term food storage (and ceramic water filters) or financial education other than high school economics. I understand what is coming and whilst I do not consider myself an end of world prepper, I am as prepared as I can be.
The fact that some random channel about cats can have a million subscribers and millions of views whilst wonderful informative channels such as this have 100k subscribers if they are lucky blows what little mind I have left. The Orange Voldemort can not change what is coming. He can only make it somewhat better or go all Hoover and make it much worse than it has to be.
Guys like this kept me out of yolo crypto trades that could have made me rich!!
@@GreenspudTrades If you follow Zeberg, he's been long all year, he's been heavily invested in Crypto and Bitcoin for most of this year and he has said in interview after interview that he would be through most of the end of the year. He is NOT a perma-bear.
Nothing matters until it matters and when it matters it matters a lot.
It is all about timing. There are no free lunches. Someone always pays.
“Lack of fear” in the markets is a sobering observation.
Veryt informative. Henrik is reinforcing a message I have been hearing for a few years. It seems only a matter of time.
Adam. Been listening to you since you were on the other channel, and followed you here. Also been a subscriber to Henrik’s Serivce for about 1.5yrs and he has been spot on so far. Glad to see you have him in your channel!!!
Adam has had on so many doom people who say inflation will return and that the economy and stock market will collapse that I find it hard to believe them now. If we get a pullback, it will probably be a short lived correction before the Feds step in and bail out the assets. Inflation higher than it used to be, probably, but maybe not hyperinflation. This is the same story we've been hearing since 2022.
The rich want assets prices to go up. Markets are always like a ball under water, they rise. Someday shit will hit the fan, but by then perma bears will still have never made money
Adam is merely talking his books, that's already very obvious. The problem is his followers losing money and opportunity.
Great guest he’s always amazing
That's great. A 55% downturn even without the risks and impacts from global warming inadequately factored in to the market. And those risks and impacts are guaranteed and guaranteed to get worse, and worse still for many decades and decades.
I know at some point a bull market ends and a bear begins, it goes on and on... I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?
I also think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Her name is ‘Marissa Lynn Babula’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
You Can't.
I have been really wanting you to interview Henrik Zeberg for months. Outstanding interview as always. Thanks, Adam. Have a blessed holiday season.
Top tier interview!!
Glad you found it of value!
In December 2023, Henrik was on Jay Martin, and he said a recession would start by May 2024. He was completely wrong. He makes good points, but good points with bad timing will lose you money.
It did start
The only way stupid money knows what is happening is because of the GOVERNMENT SUPPLIED DATA
And they LIE
Understand ?
Negative sentiment is growing :-)
Thank you. Please have Henrik Zeberg back!
100%agree with his assumptions & time line !!
There is no business cycle, there are no "recessions" as the term was traditionally used. Now it is only govt printing and spending. 330 billion in new deficit spending every month, and growing daily They will print and spend as long as they are allowed, and will do whatever is possible to keep it going. The only question is how long they can keep it up for. Look to Argentina's story to see the future.
It will continue until the people buying the bonds to fund it start demanding higher and higher rates. Once that pops it’s game over. I have no idea when that will be.
I think precious metals are telling us the endgame after gold skyrocketed above $2000. The world is going to be splintered more than it already is amongst the people who actually hold rare things. Rare cars, rare artworks, but the best most valuable collectibles will become numismatic gold bullion as the purchasing power of the world’s 99% diminishes drastically. I think the timeframe for this will be sooner than people think.
@@deanrotering879 MSTR is offering Bitcoin backed bonds
Agreed. Hopefully people pick up on this and it gets a name and is universally derided as bad policy. Why? Because calling it a recession doesn't change the reality for most people. The private labor market and many industries are already acting like we're in a (minor) recession. You can call it the great depression or best economy ever, it doesn't change the reality that stuff isn't good
@@deanrotering879what prevents the fed from buying gov debt directly like Japan?
Everyone has a crystal ball.
His top of the market seems logical to me. We'll see. The market needs a break that's long overdue. What sane person cannot see market reality?
The real economy doesn't lie. Meanwhile recessions don't happen; they are announced. Opportunistically. If possible, with something big to blame them on. Thanks for this update!
Bull shit.
57% of investors expect stock prices to go up in 2025. That's the HIGHEST level we've ever since since recording starting in 1987.
We're usually below 50%.
which is why I'm bearish
And you think that's a bullish indicator? Are you serious?
lol yeah that’s positive.😂😂😂😂
Precisely how herds get slaughtered.
@@kl5371 They want to make a big kill, so I think they will wait until the sucker index hit 65%.
This video certainly helps to buy more stocks and indices. Negative media perception means further rally. S&P to touch 7k in 2025
Good luck with that since 99% of media is ridiculously one-sided, being perma-bull. I follow all of the government reports and notice CNBC actively NOT reporting anything that sounds negative. Inversing the media now = sell
Favorite interviewer and near favorite interviewee (Rick Rule rules). Excellent episode.
Hussman has been right for a decade but his fund has suffered. The problem with correct doom.
Tough
Decline When?. After increasing 75% from today’s value, or from today’s values? We all know it’s overvalued, but....
Thanks to you, I now have realistic expectations for this bull run. I entered crypto earlier this year, and your insights on cycles and market connections have been invaluable. I now understand how global markets impact crypto, so I'm watching traditional market tops closely. Without your guidance, I’d probably be holding blindly instead of actively managing my positions. Growing my portfolio from 2.3 BTC to 24 BTC in a few months has been incredible. Special thanks to Seren Wintersun for her expertise, which has been essential in navigating this complex landscape.
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
Trading without professional guide... Huh I laugh you, because you will remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading, this has been one of the biggest problem to new traders.
Great skills and knowledge about the market. I enjoy full profits and easy withdrawal with no complains,
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
Let the FUD begin!
So this current administration let in millions of noncitizens and they’re not added to the unemployment data? Shouldn’t there be some consideration for the impact on those people?
Why should they be on the unemployed data? The state and federal government classifies them as "asylum seekers" or "undocumented workers", and gives them weekly checks + medicaid, hotel accomodations, etc. Does the government give this to people in your unemployed list?
Thank you Adam and Hendrick
Another fine mind, thankyou both for this overview, it feels correct tbh !
Thank you for the interview, Adam.
Thank you Henrik for that chart!
Well done Adam, another permabear fear merchant on your show. Another that's been consistently wrong.
The scary thing is, I agree with most of the things said. The thing is that a lot of people are seeing the same, which may influence it all. I see the bottom dropping out about March
Great work Henrik
Sad when an expert doesn’t understand the idea of tariffs as threats
good stuff - - - henrik rocks
Good guest. Very anaylitical. I think very relevant is the fact that the American consumer is up to 1.17 trillion dollars of debt. Average household almost 8K. One has to ask themselves what happens when the credit market dries up. Your guest indicated he thinks it will.
It's good to hear another bear perspective, thanks.
Personally though, I must say I am not a fan of discussions that encourage fear and moving money around. That is how wall street, financial advisors, etc, makes money, when money is moved due to fear and uncertainty. Stick to your plan(I hope you have one), stay calm, stop reacting.
Slow and steady, boring, dollar cost averaging the general market is what builds wealth, oh and the biggest thing is avoiding parasitic financial advisors that charge % based fees(this channel tries very hard to herd people into their advisors).
If you're truly worried about a crash then you should have already been hedged, such as 60/40 or 50/50 stocks & bonds. Giving you a historical return of 9.1% & 8.7% respectively since 1926.
The fear is justified. We're at $36 trillion and the interest on the debt exceeds $1 trillion. Maybe those numbers don't mean anything to you. If they did, they would INSTILL fear in you as well as a need as to how to protect yourself when we crash and burn. You sound like a, "hear, speak and say no evil" investor. Someone that sticks their head into the sand because uncertainty is too painful. If you're not willing to read the trend, the economy and historical references, you're going to be UNPREPARED and LOSE.
So don't watch
I wonder what the credit number will be on the day after Christmas compared to today?
Great guest Adam TY
You can argue narrow credit spreads is no different to stock price highs. In a bubble they would both squeeze together before any pop.
Please bring this person back after 12mos. I can guarantee you that he'd be proven wrong like he has been proven wrong for last 4 years.
What did he say for the last 4 years?
do you work? No one is hiring, it's hiring freezes and layoffs all over the place, drops in sales, etc. unless you're big tech or some small company servicing rich people. Real economy is much worse than it was in let's say 2021
I've been hearing these pessimistic forecasts for years yet still no stock market downturn.
Have bookmarked. Let's revisit in March.
Really doesn’t take a genius to know, that Debt and greed is not sustainable.
Simple basic math point!
Crazy on that chart with three lines he showed how you can make a quite smooth curve on the unemployment before and after the recession.
Are stock values overvalued or does inflation effect even the price of stocks? Something to think about. He talks about a bubble, but is long Bitcoin. You can't have deflation when you have the ability to print money.
The "inflation makes stocks go up" argument is that earnings go up with inflation since the dollar is worth less. The scary part is that that isn't really happening. This insane manic rally was based on a whopping 5.8% earnings growth
@@istvanpraha Well, that's better than what treasuries are paying. /s
they haven't dropped any interest rates on credit cards, and those in charge of how this is going to go, want things to stabilize at these rates, normalizing this higher output for the same products and services.
I just got back from a trip. I was stunned how packed the hotel's and restaurants were. LOL
This was really good. Thank you
This aligns with my thesis.
Good news, can't wait to buy more stocks
I’ve started to avoid fear mongering thumbnails. Looks like I’ll be skipping another one.
Zeberg went bullish in October 2022 when the S&P500 bottomed around 3500, and he predicted at that time that the S&P500 would melt up to around 6 k toward the end of 2024.
Thanks for taking the time to let us know that you won’t be watching the video.
I think I speak for everyone when I say we’re all greatly interested in your opinion.
@@petergozinya6122😂😂
But found time to comment. LOL
Buy that $2MM house that was just $500K and flipped 3 times since 2021 while you’re at it.
Don’t be a loser
It's all over people!!! Times up. I'm in my underground bunker ready to seal the hatch. I'll be checking in topside next year. 🙏
🤡
Go long and hedge. Is the middle way.
2 yr 10 yr is uninverted, technically
Always concerning when to hear a financial forecaster say, "There is no doubt." I thought the doubt was the whole point and you can express your convictions in the market easily enough, then say 'I told you so' while standing behind your recently stacked millions.
How about... Step1: Ease slowly into inverted ETFs to start hedging your portfolio. Step 2: When the sh*t starts hitting the fan, start selling the longs. Step 1 - around now (S&P >6000). Step 2: when S&P goes to 6300-ish.
Sounds so easy. Yet no one has ever mastered shit in the industries of trading/investing.
Thanks for the timestamps! Please keep them in all videos.
Thank you for another great interview that helps me decide how to deal with what may happen.
Tom Lee is giggling on a side line
Henrik is great 🎉He is in the right track...🎉i follow him for a Long Time🤑💪
And he's hot so I like watching the interview too!
Wow! I was just asking if you could do an interview with Henrik Zeberg! Thank you!
This dudes been wrong for 4 years….😂😂
Great discussion.👍
I don't know why people wanted to have Henrik on. He is just saying the same thing like the others about recession and all of the trivial that factors into it. The only thing different is that he is from Europe and they don't really know certain details about what is happening in the US, ie the people primarily spent the covid stimulus not saved it.
An index, thank you. Helps for future reference.
Math says its 30% drop to PE 17 which is a long time PE support.
no, it more like 15 -- do an AI search and see what all the info tells you
Yes. But E contracts as P contracts. Meaning a 30% drop in PE could be a 50% drop in P
@@genegrindle8859 Earnings usually go up majority of years.
Yes, I agree with this guy. Yeah inflation migth be the long term theme but right now M2 is flat and we are heading towards recession, expect yields to drop in short to medium term.
Can't have a recession when government is deficit spending at 10% GDP. Printers go brrrrrrrrr.
@@mrm7309 Look at the M2 charts, as a percent of GDP it's below trend. Recession incoming, the data wasn't great, and now that election is over the economic data will magically deteriorate.
The return of the S&P 500 was 9% per annum for the 20 years ended November 2024. Not an overpriced market.
David Hunter called all of this a couple of years ago.
Hunter claims Henrik plagiarized him -and has pretty compelling evidence.
@ Hunter been spot on most of his calls but not all of them of course, yet Adam still has not had him back on his show , I can’t figure out why ( yet he still has guests on that are constantly wrong like Pento )