Closers over the age of 30 are targets for me, with the exception of Melancon and Kimbrel. More then two days in a row, or a 20+ pitch outing followed by another outing, and I tend to at least consider taking those +650 odds.
i have to mentionat start that im a complete newbie ( dont know what are they trying to do on the field, that level), but regarding what youre saying about wind and wheather, my question is, even if your a baseball expert youre actually betting against the closing line on the bookie,and those calculations mean little if you get or not get an early/ good line versus the market for that particular game/ sdtarting pitchers. ty for reading, jack
Jack, thanks for the great content and your time doing these videos, It has been great following along. My question: How long does it take to create/obtain Ball Park Factors on a new park, such as Globe Life in Arlington?? And then what is your take on a MLB team playing in a unknown park, such as Toronto playing in Buffalo? Thanks in advance!
Thanks, appreciate the kind words. It'll be tough to quantify the park effects for Globe Life Park with only 30 games to go on this year. So far though, it appears having a roof (and more importantly air conditioning) has lowered the scores there compared to their previous outdoor park. At least for 2021 you will have some data to work with going into that season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays playing in a AAA ballpark should be fascinating. I invite you to check out how that ballpark looks and then apply some of the things I mentioned. It could be very significant in how games play there.
Thoughts on mlb canning home plate umpires and just using pitch tracker? Given they tweak pitch tracker slightly to adjust to height of batter or if they're doing that squat to minimize strike zone tactic lol
I feel like it's time to eliminate all human error where possible These guys playing for hundreds of millions and the ball clubs are worth billions Why let a bad umpire call swing a play or season
That would definitely be an interesting evolution for the game. However, since we'd still need to have an umpire stationed there to call plays at the plate, I'm not sure we gain enough in making that switch. The human nature of officiating shows up in other sports, so in that sense it's woven into the fabric of sports. I understand it has been experimented with in some minor leagues and overall it has been successful and easy to implement. Worth a try at some point.
How would you take these stats and plop them into a quantitative model to project money line or totals edges? Is it possible to run multiple statistics within a Monte Carlo ?
HR props are hard because you rarely get good odds on them. In a given home game, Arenado might have a 30% chance to hit a HR, but would probably be priced at +180 or so. If you thought maybe there's value on the other side, you'd find -300 on the NO. It's not unusual to see a 10% theoretical hold on HR Y/N props. I think you'll find the market accurately prices him at home in those good Coors Field hitting conditions as well.
The time for that is at the start of the season. I was a bit too busy to catch the start of the football season this time. I'd like to do one for NBA though. CBB is not one of my stronger sports, so that would be tougher.
Prop bets are wagers on an aspect of the game that doesn't have to do with the final score. For instance, how many strikeouts will a pitcher have? over/under 6.5. How many points will a certain player have in an NBA game? over/under 29.5 Derivatives are wagers on aspects of the games besides the final score. For instance, a sportsbook may offer a line on a MLB game, but then allow you to also bet a 5-inning line on the game's 1st 5 innings, or a 3-inning line on the 1st 3 innings, or just bet on how many runs one of the teams will score. These are all derivatives based off the initial 9-inning game line.
If you focus on betting just sides, you can pretty much eliminate #1, #2, and #5 because those factors are common to both teams. If you focus on betting first 5 innings, you can eliminate #4. The only factor you can't eliminate is #3 - Lineups.
Congratulations on a great video! 💥 I know where you can get more than 75 free spins.Best choice. Well isn’t gambling luck, and isn’t a glitch or malfunction pretty rare? Yeah she should get money even though it’s a malfunction
Closers over the age of 30 are targets for me, with the exception of Melancon and Kimbrel. More then two days in a row, or a 20+ pitch outing followed by another outing, and I tend to at least consider taking those +650 odds.
Good info..great deductive reasoning skills.
A couple years late, but this is an AMAZING video thank you!
i have to mentionat start that im a complete newbie ( dont know what are they trying to do on the field, that level), but regarding what youre saying about wind and wheather, my question is, even if your a baseball expert youre actually betting against the closing line on the bookie,and those calculations mean little if you get or not get an early/ good line versus the market for that particular game/ sdtarting pitchers. ty for reading, jack
Jack, thanks for the great content and your time doing these videos, It has been great following along. My question: How long does it take to create/obtain Ball Park Factors on a new park, such as Globe Life in Arlington?? And then what is your take on a MLB team playing in a unknown park, such as Toronto playing in Buffalo? Thanks in advance!
Thanks, appreciate the kind words. It'll be tough to quantify the park effects for Globe Life Park with only 30 games to go on this year. So far though, it appears having a roof (and more importantly air conditioning) has lowered the scores there compared to their previous outdoor park. At least for 2021 you will have some data to work with going into that season.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays playing in a AAA ballpark should be fascinating. I invite you to check out how that ballpark looks and then apply some of the things I mentioned. It could be very significant in how games play there.
I learn so much from you CAPTAIN JACK.... THANK YOU SO MUCH
You are very welcome, Joe.
Where is a good place online to view the category of the pitchers (ie, ground ball pitcher, fly ball pitcher, etc)?
I think fangraphs .com is very good for this. However, you can also get that info from the stats pages on MLB .com.
Thoughts on mlb canning home plate umpires and just using pitch tracker?
Given they tweak pitch tracker slightly to adjust to height of batter or if they're doing that squat to minimize strike zone tactic lol
I feel like it's time to eliminate all human error where possible
These guys playing for hundreds of millions and the ball clubs are worth billions
Why let a bad umpire call swing a play or season
They took er jerbzzz !!!!
That would definitely be an interesting evolution for the game. However, since we'd still need to have an umpire stationed there to call plays at the plate, I'm not sure we gain enough in making that switch. The human nature of officiating shows up in other sports, so in that sense it's woven into the fabric of sports. I understand it has been experimented with in some minor leagues and overall it has been successful and easy to implement. Worth a try at some point.
How would you take these stats and plop them into a quantitative model to project money line or totals edges? Is it possible to run multiple statistics within a Monte Carlo ?
What do you think about the HR props? What would be a good plus number on say Arenado at home vs an average starter? Thanks for all the great info.
HR props are hard because you rarely get good odds on them. In a given home game, Arenado might have a 30% chance to hit a HR, but would probably be priced at +180 or so. If you thought maybe there's value on the other side, you'd find -300 on the NO. It's not unusual to see a 10% theoretical hold on HR Y/N props. I think you'll find the market accurately prices him at home in those good Coors Field hitting conditions as well.
Great information💯👍
Will you be uploading one for football and basketball soon?
The time for that is at the start of the season. I was a bit too busy to catch the start of the football season this time. I'd like to do one for NBA though. CBB is not one of my stronger sports, so that would be tougher.
That is amazing information
Good content!
Glad you think so!
What does props and derivatives mean? Please explain.
Prop bets are wagers on an aspect of the game that doesn't have to do with the final score. For instance, how many strikeouts will a pitcher have? over/under 6.5. How many points will a certain player have in an NBA game? over/under 29.5
Derivatives are wagers on aspects of the games besides the final score. For instance, a sportsbook may offer a line on a MLB game, but then allow you to also bet a 5-inning line on the game's 1st 5 innings, or a 3-inning line on the 1st 3 innings, or just bet on how many runs one of the teams will score. These are all derivatives based off the initial 9-inning game line.
If you focus on betting just sides, you can pretty much eliminate #1, #2, and #5 because those factors are common to both teams. If you focus on betting first 5 innings, you can eliminate #4. The only factor you can't eliminate is #3 - Lineups.
Of all the prop bets, I seem to have better luck with the strikeout props.
They can be juicy.
Congratulations on a great video! 💥 I know where you can get more than 75 free spins.Best choice.
Well isn’t gambling luck, and isn’t a glitch or malfunction pretty rare? Yeah she should get money even though it’s a malfunction
Love Captain Jack
Guess what I still loose!