How to Predict Your Marathon Time Using Your GPS Data

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  • Опубліковано 21 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 53

  • @MarcusBiskobing1
    @MarcusBiskobing1 Рік тому +4

    You have the absolute best performance running videos on UA-cam - especially for analytical data driven athletes. Thank you for sharing

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +1

      Wow, thank you! Appreciate the feedback.

  • @jamesduysen9078
    @jamesduysen9078 Рік тому +4

    Great tips. I just ran Chicago with a pb of 3:10:07. In the weeks leading up I did a few easy runs with 3-4 miles of Marathon effort, and this really helped me know how to stay within myself by making sure for the first ~2 hours of the marathon I was close to the paces, power and HR I saw during those runs. Felt controlled until the last mile and even had some in the tank to push the last 2 miles.

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +3

      That's awesome. It's always so hard to stay controlled over those early miles when the crowds are charging, and it'll feels so easy.

    • @lygcgsun
      @lygcgsun Рік тому

      @@drwilloconnorwaaeeaeasawwe a

  • @uberham68b
    @uberham68b Рік тому +3

    Great video Will. Would love to see one similar for 1/2 distance. Appreciate the top notch content!

  • @bobbyk9939
    @bobbyk9939 Рік тому +1

    Dr., I signed up for the Seoul International Full Marathon I’m training for in March 2024.
    I’ve always had hypoglycemia which makes my running challenging than most normal runners. When I run easy zone 2 runs, my glucose levels drop to 40s in about an hour. When I run zones 3/4 for an hour, my glucose levels are in the 100s still.
    I am not a diabetic and looks like my pancreas is not producing the glucagon when I’m running easy and have to run faster in order to use my adrenaline to increase my glucose levels. I have ran many races from 5k to Half and only 1 full marathon last year (Seoul Marathon). I had to use 12 gels, 32 oz Gatorade, and 7 mini chocolates in order to prevent my hypoglycemia during the full. My recent Half, I only used 4 gels and 24 oz Gatorade. I ran 1:46 for the Half.
    So how should I pace myself? Any inputs would be great. Thank you!!

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      It's hard to make recommendations without knowing the exact cause of your hypoglycemia. A ketone ester supplement could be worth a try to see how that affects your blood sugar maintenance.
      Otherwise, you need to become as efficient as possible at burning fat, which may require a strict low carb diet and lots of fasted training. However, it's hard to say, and I don't to make recommendations that may cause further issues for you.

    • @mikeharrowfield2904
      @mikeharrowfield2904 Рік тому

      MAF heart rate training may help in terms of becoming a more efficient fat burner and building a great aerobic base at the same time.

    • @bobbyk9939
      @bobbyk9939 Рік тому

      @@mikeharrowfield2904 I wish I could use MAF training. My hypoglycemia will cause me to pass out because I have liver issues that won’t release my glucagon (hormones to maintain sugar levels) unless I go anaerobic. Hard to go anaerobic for the whole marathon. That’s my issues.

    • @bobbyk9939
      @bobbyk9939 Рік тому

      @@drwilloconnor Dr., I’ve always had hypoglycemia all my life when exercising like hiking or running, In long easy endurance events. I never get any hypoglycemia from anything else that I’m aware of. I’ve tried fasted running, however, my blood glucose gets really low in the low 40s and I started to get blurry vision, numbness, dizziness, and tired. That’s when I know my hypoglycemia is occurring and I would have to carb up right away with gels and chocolates which I carry on every runs. Sometimes when I feel like I’m getting hypoglycemia from my easy runs, I would run surges and get my heart rate above 151 to have my adrenaline release glucagon from my liver. Just weird how running faster would elevate my glucose but running MAF would lower my glucose significantly.

  • @sebastianserwin3416
    @sebastianserwin3416 Рік тому

    Last HM 1:26 with avg HR 151. The test: after 28km I started to keep 4:15-4:05/km HR AVG 148, max 151. Based on the method on the limit for 2:59:59. Realistic goal is 3:10:00.

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +1

      I think you can smash a 3:10, but it’s obviously course dependent. So always smart to start conservatively. Let me know how you get on!

    • @sebastianserwin3416
      @sebastianserwin3416 Рік тому

      Well, the Frankfurt marathon 3:01:51 - Strava calculated 42195m in 2:59:41, but the course was 500m extra on the Garmin. AVG HR 152, max 159. The last 4km were difficult (limited space and multiple turns), and I had muscle pain (probably I paid the price for too much effort in the 10km hilly run a week before). The second half of the race was more windy and rainy. Thus for me, the method was very precise.

  • @greencarrots13
    @greencarrots13 Рік тому

    Thanks again Dr. Will for some great insights. I bought one of your marathon plans and am really stoked with the results even though I didn't get my sub 3h, i was within 3 minutes of it and within 30 seconds of my PB which is now a 10y old PB that I hit at 36 yo! I can put that time down to carbon shoes, more consistent training and your highly specific training plan - thank you! Your comments on respecting and enjoying the process are also super helpful and important. I'll be out there again in 4 months after another training cycle to see what I can do. Looking forward to more of your content

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +1

      Cheers, mate, I appreciate that! I'm glad you've enjoyed the training plan, too. Keep that consistency, and I’m sure those 3min will drop next time around.

    • @greencarrots13
      @greencarrots13 8 місяців тому +1

      ​@@drwilloconnor- well I went at it again in February and I hit 2h57mins! Thank you again for your superb content

  • @Chunkyfunk01
    @Chunkyfunk01 Рік тому

    This was really interesting, thank you. I've got my first marathon in London next year and I've only been running about 18months so I initially had no idea what time to aim for. I've managed to get my 5k time down from around 29 minutes to around 21 minutes in that first year of running and I've recently ran a Half in 1hr38min. Quite scary going into a Marathon feeling so blind in terms of what to expect from myself. It's tricky to put Marathon effort sections into my long runs if I don't know what my Marathon effort is or more will *end up* being in another 5-6 months time based on progression I've made so far.
    I've worked backwards and said I want to aim for 3:30 and basing my marathon efforts on the times needed for that. Fingers crossed those marathon effort sections in my long runs feel a bit easier over time until it truly is my marathon effort in terms of zone/HR% by the time I'm in peak training etc. If not, I'll have to adjust my aims for the big day!
    Thank you for putting out this kind of content, it's always interesting and to the point!

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      Thanks! First off, congrats on the incredible progress! That sub-20 5km is right around the corner. If you're running a half in 1:38 now, a 3:30 is a realistic goal. Aim to do another half or two before race day, and you'll get more race experience and data.

  • @Dimutri1
    @Dimutri1 Рік тому

    Great video, well made in terms of animation as well as in terms of the message! Will have a look in my next long run with marathon pace to predict my Queenstown marathon time!

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      Cheers. QT marathon is challenging because there’s a lot of gravel, and it’s pretty lumpy. Make sure your training run is on similar terrain to get an accurate guide.

  • @thejeffinvade
    @thejeffinvade Рік тому +1

    Put my 5K time last month into Jack Daniels Vdot formula, it predicts my marathon time is 3:08. My Garmin race predictor says I can run 3:10. But I know there is no way I can run 3:10.
    I am running my first marathon on Sunday. I finished a half marathon this May for 94 mins, even though I got a slight fever the before the race. This time I haven't got sick, at least not yet, and I am fitter than May. I will be aiming for 3:20 on Sunday, since this is my first marathon. No way I can hold 4:30 per K pace for 42k, 4:45 pace is a lot more manageable. We will see what happens.

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +2

      A 3:10 from a 1:34 half would be ambitious. I think you have the right approach by targeting a realistic time. You'll always have the option to speed up if you've got gas in the tank. ⛽

    • @thejeffinvade
      @thejeffinvade Рік тому +2

      @@drwilloconnor I had 37.9C fever the day before my half. Without the fever, I should be able to finish around 92 mins.
      Between May and now, I did 4-5 long runs over 29K where I finish with last 6-11K at 4:30-4:35, 10-15s faster than my planned marathon pace. The closest one is 4 weeks ago 33Km 3hr run with last 11K@4:35 per K pace. Excluding the last K (emptying the tank), my average HR for 43 mins is 174 with max 183, pace 4:36.
      For context, my average HR for entire half marathon in May is 189, max recorded is 209. However, those numbers were recorded using forerunner 245 watch, not chest straps, and I was sick. I don’t see my chest HR goes beyond 200 during my training session, maybe once every 2,3 month in a very hard hill repeat session.
      My threshold HE should be around 180-185. During my regular 2*20 min threshold session, my average HR for the 2nd interval is 181. Does that mean I can run 4:35 pace for the full marathon?

    • @thejeffinvade
      @thejeffinvade Рік тому

      @@drwilloconnor Anyways, Since this is my first marathon, I will stick to my conservative plan and empty the tank after 32K if my legs are still working by then.

    • @JamesHill-n4z
      @JamesHill-n4z Рік тому +1

      Jack Daniels Vdot formula is a potential not really a prediction. I think it's common that people cannot run their Vdot potential.

    • @thejeffinvade
      @thejeffinvade Рік тому

      @@JamesHill-n4z I can’t hit my other garmin race predictions either. My actual 5K is 5% slower than garmin race predictor. So I would aim for 5% for the marathon too.

  • @JackD87
    @JackD87 Рік тому

    GREAT info on this. Makes me regret sticking to my plan for my first marathon recently. Live and learn. Great to have a look back at some data too. Makes me want to go and do a 2hr Longy w/30mins MP now…

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      Do it 🤣. All the best with the next one 💪.

  • @rohangulvadi9271
    @rohangulvadi9271 Рік тому +2

    great advice on this! my first mara is this coming Sunday (3 days left hahahaha) and I can't use the data throughout my training block because I've been using my Apple Watch to monitor my HR and that probably isn't very accurate. I've heard that the Macmillan's running calculator is pretty accurate and it showed me a predicted finish time of just under 3:50, (when I inserted my 5k time of 23 mins),which is what I'm aiming for anyways. what are your thoughts on this? thank you!

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      Thanks for the message on IG. Again, all the best this weekend.

  • @wk633
    @wk633 Рік тому +1

    I've been using TP for a year, and didn't know about selecting a range of a workout. I really should learn the platform better! I've been copying segments from Strava and pasting into a spreadsheet to do the math. This is sooo much more refined and easier.

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +2

      Oh man, I could blow your mind with the stuff you can do in TrainingPeaks! Keep watching. I'll make a video with a basic walkthrough in the next few weeks.

  • @scottconnolly9356
    @scottconnolly9356 Рік тому +1

    As always love your work Dr Will

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому

      Much appreciated. Glad to know you're still tunning in!

  • @andremoraes5595
    @andremoraes5595 Рік тому +1

    Thank you for the tips, I recently ran mu first marathon in 3:25. I felt like I gave 85-90% of my total effort. My Garmin predicts a 3:13 marathon. Can I trust him? Love your videos!

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +1

      You definitely can't trust Garmin. From my experience, Garmin wants to make you feel good about your upcoming race and bad about your training.... i.e. unproductive🤦‍♂️

    • @andremoraes5595
      @andremoraes5595 Рік тому +1

      Thank you for the answer! Keep the good work!

  • @nicolasdecoster82
    @nicolasdecoster82 10 місяців тому

    Hi dr Will, at 4:30 you mention that we can use these average pace & power for the first hour of the marathon. What about the rest of the race? What are we aiming for then? I didn't pick it up in the rest of the video, apologies if you did mention it! Cheers, N

    • @williegunn292
      @williegunn292 2 місяці тому

      I think after that first hour you just pick up the pace (or keep that pace) depending on how you feel. It should mean that you haven't gone out too fast in your first hour and you'll (hopefully) have a strong finish!

  • @prj259
    @prj259 Рік тому +1

    Great information. What markers would you recommend for a half marathon?

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +1

      I'd use a 20-30min half effort within a 90min long run, aiming for average HR under threshold HR for the section. There's a little more nuance for a half marathon because there's a big physiological difference between a 1:25 and 1:45 compared to a marathon between 3-4 hours because marathons are mostly aerobic, whereas a half marathon at 1:25 has a more considerable % time above threshold HR.

    • @prj259
      @prj259 Рік тому

      @@drwilloconnor thank you!! This is very valuable to know. I am going to try this for my long run this Sunday. I ran a 1:36 two weeks ago, and my average HR was right at LT which resulted in a small -ive split. I have another half in 5 weeks and am trying to see how to best optimize my training to run about 5 secs quicker

  • @martincarstensen8527
    @martincarstensen8527 9 місяців тому +1

    I wonder if you could elaborate on the usefulness and accuracy of using power output in running. I know it's beneficial for cyclists since they use watts meters attached to their bikes. But how is power output measured in running? My Garmin Watch doesn't include anything about watts and/or power output

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  9 місяців тому

      I have a couple of other videos/podcasts on running power. Basically, your device (watch or footpod) is taking your running dynamics info (stride length & rate, ground contact time, vertical oscillation, speed, elevation) and your user info (height and weight) to calculate your energy output. Power is a measure of the rate of energy you're using.
      ua-cam.com/video/PGsEn6xFDCA/v-deo.html

  • @dgillespie81
    @dgillespie81 Рік тому

    So, for example:
    45 minutes Easy
    45 minutes Steady
    30 minutes Marathon pace
    15 minute Easy cooldown
    Take the Heart Rate data from the 30 minute Marathon pace effort?

  • @mogosberhane264
    @mogosberhane264 Рік тому

    I need your Advice guys, I run 30km last week at 4.09min /km. But I was exhausted at the last km of 30. What do you think guys me to run a marathon?

    • @drwilloconnor
      @drwilloconnor  Рік тому +2

      First off, congrats. That's a mighty run. If you can hold 4:09 min/km for 30km, then running the first half at 4:15 - 4:20 min/km will comfortably set you up for a negative split. Just make sure you don't box 📦 yourself again this weekend. Try a casual zone 2 for 2hrs or 20km with 8x 1km fast.