have a look at wealth at deagel.and the correct to wealth per citizen Russia surpases the usa then have a look at strength and combine russia and China. The usa is dead they just don't know it yet arrogance before the fall
People either forget or never knew..... Economics brought down the USSR, not military strength. I was working at NATO, specifically SHAPE HQ, when it happened. I remember.
You are correct, The old Soviet Union couldn't keep up with the US and Europe economically. Russia is repeating the same mistake in a 30 year span. Putin thought he could change Russia's fortunes with his perception of a weak US and Europe, especially after what he did in Crimea.
@@erichvonmolder9310 Sorry, but you both talking really wrong thing. Just think - USSR was a dictatorship (after all, it's you who said that mainly), and an ideologic(Communistic) one. So, think, could that kind of country collapse because if economics?? Of course, not. It would exploit its citizen to close any gaps in economy its government created. But in reality, it didn't even do it! It didn't have to! But I don't want to talk about real reason of its collapse..
It collapsed because it became truly democratic and turns out people didn't actually want the USSR in the border regions, once Gorbachev broke the dictatorship and allowed people to speak, a lot of what they were saying revolved around wanting independence from the USSR, but the USSR was just as dirt poor in the 1990s and it was in the 1970s, the only thing that changed was the dictatorship collapsed
The bit nobody seems to get is back in 1989 the west completely dominated global finance, global manufacturing, energy transactions, global decision making etc, not anymore. Today the Russian Federation is a central BRICS partner.
@@liquidsnake6879 , They were poor as dirt and couldn't sustain the military to keep up with the US, a rising China and old Soviet states. Look at Russia today, they lost a large portion of the old Soviet military machine that kept them a scary military, now they are not so scary. As we have seen, interestingly the rise of Putin was in play and now Russia is worse than it has always been. caught in a war they didn't need and back to their old ways that didn't work. Putin has repeated the old Soviet ways.
Putin: "We are strategically reorganizing and consolidating our forces" Putin: "Retreat from Kiev!, retreat from Kharkiv!, retreat from Kherson!, retreat from Snake Island!"
IMHO, we're lucky the Russian sanctions are Trump proof. We never had much trade with them anyways, It's Europe that Russia needs and Trump won't be able to do anything about that. Ukraine is in a bad spot when it comes to politics. Majority of Americans want to support Ukraine, but we're also having our own issues, and the powers that support Ukraine are wrecking us, our only option is an Pro-Russian stooge.
I'm Italian, and old enough to remember the switch from the Lira to the Euro... At a 1936.27 to 1 exchange rate, thanks to the enormous inflation after World War I, the one after World War II that got stabilized with the Bretton Woods system at 1 dollar per 575 lire, and a few episodes after Bretton Woods collapsed. The moment you said everyone in Russia was becoming a millionaire, I knew exactly what was happening.
I remember going to Italy twice in the early 80s and the reality of the Lira. Everything seemed to be in milliardi, almost. A small meal would mean transactions in big numbers. Off course, absolutely exceptional country otherwise - culture, creativity, language, diverse natural beauty, ... and the food. Just excepcional.
I remember in the eighties, I took the highway. I had my wallet full of 100 liras banknotes. I thought I was comfortable… But it appeared I did not have enough to pay for the toll! 😊
It also creates a land route to the Crimea and takes over a few other significant / important areas plus access to some significant natural gas reserves. Terrible trade off overall, but it has more value than just farmland.
The natural gas fields are particularly important. It wasn’t until they were discovered, and Ukraine began to work with Shell in order to developing an extracting the resource to sell straight to Europe that Russia began to send men into the region to create separatist instability and shell backed away, not wanting to invest in an unstable environment. Russia was Europe’s main natural gas supplier and did not want Ukraine to undercut them or cut into their share of the market by selling directly to Europe themselves. Now that they’ve annexed the region, it is their natural gas to exploit and profit from
No, it's because Crimea's water source got filled in with concrete because it comes from Ukraine. And Crimea has recently discovered massive offshore hydrocarbon deposits, that would undermine Putin's attempted fact gas monopoly.
A guy in Utah in a crew t-shirt just explained the Russian economy with more clarity than most economists have been able to explain since sanctions have been in place. This guy has something to say. Nice work
Really? A simple Google search would show that the ruble hasn't lost or gained much value in at least 3 years. The reason russians are getting paid so much is because war creates jobs. Those jobs are highly paid compared to what they paid in non war time. Their salaries just went up from 300 bucks a month to 2000 dollars a month. In rubles. That's what happens when there's no one to fill the positions.
It's already been said many, many times. Experts don't explain this stuff because it's 101. Paul explains things in a way that the masses can understand. He does this quite well.
Inflation in Russia is now 27% Interest rate is now 21% p.a. Italy alone has an higher GDP than Russia. Indeed things are going great. Putin should stay away from open windows.
Haha, GDP... Funny joke. Wanna hear a fact about GDP? The US GDP is 25 Trillion dollars. The natural reserves of the US are 45 Trillion dollars. So combined everything of value in the United States of America and I mean EVERYTHING, gold, oil, gas, minerals of any kind, lumber, livestock, grain, all of it is worth 2 years of US GDP. If you believe that you are a complete and utter simpleton. GDP is fairy dust, a number economists pull out of their ass to prop up New Monetary theory as long as possible so that elite can buy up everything with printed money.
And the sad thing is Putin seems to have an mental problem in which he is incapable of admitting he's losing , he fools himself that he is winning taking small pieces from Ukraine while he destroy's Russia's economy.
That's the official rate But not the one you need to pay if you mortgage a house. With Russia there is always what is said and what is real. That very fact that you can trust nothing and no one decreases a countries productivity significantly as elaborate control is needed and control is essentially overhead... just think about government.
Central Bank prime rate went up on the 25th to 21 percent. Ouch! If it's going up then inflation is higher than that. It was going down, then inflation is below that.
It's self imposed. It's not like the imf or someone else imposed it. This is old news. The russians stated they would increase interest rates. It's no different than the fed setting interest rates in the US.
@@Donaldthefelontrump They didn't say that. Why would they go from 19 percent to 21 percent with a claimed 7 percent rate of inflation? With 7 percent, everyone would expect it to drop, meaning that inflation is under better control.
Everything in Putins' Russia is a big lie Simply,clear and very natural explanation.Even the length of your posts are optimal to keep atention and interest. I've watched thousands of posts and followed bloggers since Russia invaded Ukraine. You're one of the best bloggers if not the best about Russia and Ukraine war and facts. What is even more interesting,your posts doesnt need special effects or copy paste of other blogs and media. Keep on,your on the right side of history
Haha... USA stock market..is a total lie..all fake shares.. China fake as well....smokenand mirrors around the world..maybe Scandinavian countries are...still ...good with the books
btw it's 21% interest rate now. You don't do that if you have just 9% inflation. Printing rubles only "helps" the government funding internally. To buy stuff from other countries they need hard currencies, and that's funded from their wealth fund, the liquid part of which is due to run out some time next year.
After that you will see the price of gold going down i think because then they have to turn their gold reserves into foreign currency..That gives them perhaps another year if that happens. After that there won't be even money left to pay out pensions.
@@randar1969there are already reports of planes loaded with tons of gold flying to gulf states and china, so they're already trading with gold. why the gold price goes up with this influx of gold is what puzzles me
Russian demographics even before the war were bad. Child bearing age men numbers were seriously low, due to the collapse of the Soviet union! When Russia invaded Ukraine hundreds of thousands of the highly educated men fled the country! When Russia announced the conscription of Russian men many thousands of these men fled the country! War statistics estimate over 600,000 of these child bearing age men have been killed. Putin has also disproportionately targeted ethnic provinces for drafting men. These provinces, Siberia, Chechnya, etc,already hate Russia for over exploiting their resources, ie gas, oil, lumber, etc! Russia will collapse in the next decade!
@@chaost4544the weird thing is, even if they get what they want ( a slice of Ukraine ) the only people who will stay will be deluded pensioners expecting to be looked after
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
Gold and Silver are often seen as a safe-haven asset that can protect against inflation and economic uncertainty. But like any investment, it carries risks. To determine if gold is the right investment option for you, an investment advisor can help you weigh the potential benefits and risks of investing in gold. They can also help you create a well-diversified portfolio that includes gold as part of a broader investment strategy. An investment advisor can help you decide how much of your portfolio should be allocated to gold and select other investments that can complement your gold holdings.
Investing in gold is a reliable choice, and I plan to keep buying more to make up for my losses. While silver is also a good investment, my collectibles are not as similar. It's important to have clear investment goals and educate yourself on the type of investment that interests you. I work with a financial consultant regulated by the SEC, and started small, but eventually accumulated over $800,000.
Can you provide instructions on how to contact your advisor? I'm experiencing erosion of my funds due to inflation and looking for a more profitable investment strategy to make better use of them.
‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get.
POV.. you ask the leader of the most sanctioned and impoverished nation in the world for 10,000 troops because you, the 2nd most powerful nation in the world are winning so hard...
@@kurtwicklund8901 lol... sorry, i was going off military rankings Pre 2022 from whoever the F*ck thought Russia was the 2nd most powerful military in the world 🤣🤣
If i were you i'd STFU about someone asking for anything, the green t-shirt you rooting for were beggin everyone to come fight this war for him since day 1, the amount of western mercs fighting for him who were sent to hell where they belong have surpassed 10k very long time ago.
Green t-shirt: for the past 2(3) years was on a across the world trip for his begathon for everyone and everything to fight this war HE started and pushed for since 2014, countless western mercs, vehicles, ammo and systems were delivered Westoid moron (you): I SLEEP NK and Russia: join their forces due to Article 4 (which itself mirroring article 5 of NATO) after Kursk invasion of said western mercs Westoid moron (you): REAL SHIT?
Albert Einstein once said, "If you can't explaine a topic in simple, easily understood every day language, then you don't understand the subject yourself." You clearly understand the topic and you present it in simple, easily understood language. Or to put my comment in simple, easily understood language, well said sir, well said.
the economic effects of this war will hit the Russians very hard after the war is over. all the countries(Chinese Indians , Saudis , UAE) who lent money to the Russians under the table with high interest rates will come back and claim interest payment either in currency or in resources(at high discounts). esp. if Russia loses this war, coupled with political instability, and possible collapse of law and order also causes a Russian economic collapse after the war as Russia becomes a failed state. Russia's creditors will want their money back with interest and will probably start seizing Russian assets if the Moscow gov cant comply by force. (esp. for the Chinese).
Paul, clear, well understood on your part and well spoken. Keep it up, please! This is the kind of clearly understood and delivered news that we need in the world!
From the first mention of "Russians are becoming millionaires," my first thought was, "So? Everyone in Zimbabwe is a millionaire too. It just happens to be in their dollars rather than US dollars." And lo and behold, it's the same with Russia. This is part of why GDP is a terrible indicator for an economy. All that GDP measures is how much money is moving around, how much is going to buy and selling with no real separation between the two, and it only measures _internal_ instances of this - i.e. no international trade included (oh sure, definitions of it mention exports, but not imports). That actually does not say anything about how any specific part of a nation's economy, let alone its entirety, is doing. In fact, right now, it sounds like the Russian ruble is going through the same thing that the German mark did in the early 1920s. Oh hey, notice how it is 100 years after what happened with the mark, and it's for the same reasons: losing a war, losing many members of their population, and having to pay other countries in what are effectively reparations. I guess history really does run in cycles. In that case, can we expect Russians carting around wheelbarrows of rubles? How about a Russian Hitler? Okay, dumb take at the end there, but not as dumb as Putin doing what he's doing.
Putin _is_ the Russian Hitler .. they're having some inflation and the dictator both at the same time. The most likely scenario is that the current ruble will become completely worthless by the end of the war.
Anyone trusting Russia not to lie about its economy is a fool. Lying is the largest industry in Russia. A 21% interest rate is the only thing they can't lie about, and it's a sign of a very sick country.
Very true, Russia exaggerated the good and downplays the bad, but Paul is mistaken as usual. Russia's economy is still booming in a way only wartime economies can. It won't last, but if they keep it going long enough it will mean bad things for Ukraine. We should stop underestimating Russia and give Ukraine the help it really needs. More funds, more training, less restrictions.
Have you ever actually listened to him speak? Have you actually listened to what he has to say rather than how the media parses his words and convolutes what he is saying? Have a bit of integrity. Actually listen to him and then talk about “how screwed up is the planet because of him.”
@SK-sc1rb it's up to Russian people to decide. Look at Americans for example, you'd think it's a capitalist country but they just voted in socialist oligarchs.
I wish people would stop saying the rouble is 100 to the dollar. This is a fabricated exchange rate as the rouble is not traded outside Russia. I cannot find any money transfer that will handle roubles. Even in Russia the banks will exchange US dollars for between 150 to 200 roubles. The rouble is not money it is a local token of exchange.
Exactly. The "official value" and street value are two completely separate things... Just like in the USSR. Official value was almost on par with the US dollar, but the real value was something else...
Actually inside Russia you can get dollars just under 100 and euros at about 106. Either cash or crypto. So that is the "real" rate but it is definitely going up at a pretty fast rate.
@joojoojeejee6058 Well define limited... the averagea small money changer probably has only 20-50k on hand but with crypto you can easily do several hundred K in one go
The official Russian interest rate is, I believe 21% not the 20% that you stated. Apart from that minor quibble this was an excellent video. I agree that the cracks are now showing in the Russian economy and if I might make a somewhat bold prediction those cracks will continue grow and become canyons in the second quarter of 2025.
If you want to know about Russia's economy, look at the Superyachts at the Cote D'Azur, the luxury apartments in Dubai and the a-little-too-beautiful girls in Monaco. And then understand that the money for all of this was stolen from Russia by the russian oligarchs who enjoy all these niceties - outside Russia.
Should try asking someone from the IMF and the World Bank: If Russia's economy is doing so well, why don't other countries follow their lead... substantially reduce their income and at the same time substantially increase expenditure?
"Borscht" is Ukrainian dish and it has nothing to do with russia! Just another example of russia stealing Ukrainian culture and history and representing it to western countries as part of hybrid war!
"Borscht" is Ukrainian dish and has nothing to do with russia. You can use "Schi" it is a truly national russian dish made of sauerkraut that smells and tastes like everything russia does
Not to mention that, in 1998, Russia did a denomination reform. So, 1 ruble of today is equal to 1000 rubles pre-1998. To be fair, the real (i.e. black-market) exchange rate in 1987 was 5:1, not 1.5:1. Still, ruble has devalued 20000x since then
Official value and street value were two completely separate things in the USSR. And indeed the same is true today. Also, the Soviet Ruble didn't really have any absolute purchasing power. It was more of a token. You could buy something sometimes, if you had Rubles. But not much at will really.
Trouble is: I don't think he is really a moron, in the usual sense of the word. He does what is best for HIM, given his goal: to stay in power and reinstate the Russian Empire. That'll make him a god in that country. Then Putin can relax in his luxurious mansion in Switzerland between his speeches telling his Russian worshippers more of the same.
Very good analysis. You may want to look at the economy of Serbia during Yugoslav wars in the 1990s. Serbia was pouring money into its war machine. They were also under sanctions. They printed and printed money, inflation followed and all Serbs became multi millionaires and then multi billionaires. It was all worthless money. Their economy collapsed. The war lasted 4 years. Russia is approaching year 3. The big question is how long will Russian public be able to take it? Well done Paul.
I've read articles that suggest the Russian sovereign wealth fund will run out sometime next year. I believe I also read that when their central bank raised interest rates to 18%, it's now 19%, the head of the central bank resigned knowing what was coming. Well maybe like in Zimbabwe they'll all soon become billionaires!
Political satire: Russian econ is STRONG....according to their press! Wait til BRICS establish their "Euro"....we should coward in fear 🤣😂😆. I'm too stupid to think for myself, to stupid to examine the reality and I'm too stupid to learn fundamental economics!!! I believe in whatever Russia and CCP is feeding me. 😁😁😁😛💩💩💩💩
Yeah, nothing to worry. The US can keep printing money ad infinitum, nothing will happen. Russia on the other hand... Do you even know how much new money your government has printed in the last 30 years? ZERO. The number is zero. Private banks print money now and if you want to know how much money they printed, well, it's 20 Trillion dollars. In 1990 the total amount of USD in circulation, paper and electronic was 3.3 Trillion. Today after 30 years of New Monetary Theory the total has ballooned to 23 Trillion and almost all of it was printed electronically by private banks. I suggest worrying about that, Russia seems fine.
There are two economies in Russia. One economy from people who are making money from the war and one of people who are not. Soldiers that are getting paid much more than before and death benefits are examples of people who now have money. There are defense workers working long hours who received wage increases to leave their old job to make war machines. These people have money. There are people who make money from this group. The other group are most of the people who are not in the first group and their life is doing horrible. Still, you go to Moscow and find the bars full and shopping malls not really empty because of group one. The Russian rainy-day fund has been completely depleted. No 350 billion left. Russian defense budget is supposed to become 25 percent bigger in 2025. North Korean troops are going to be a new cost, and this money will not return to the Russian economy. 2025 should be a year that Russia can no longer be keep its economy under any type of control. Business failures in areas of the country where they do not have defense plants is rising. The twenty per cent interest rate is beginning to kill the real estate market. For a while, Russia would subsidize home loans but had to stop doing that. Businesses cannot borrow money because they cannot afford the interest rates which are only expected to rise. With no borrowing, banks are close to failures. Watch the price of the Ruble and Russian interest rates in 2025 and by 2026 the whole thing should come completely unglued. The question is, with declining western support, can Ukraine hold out that long?
Factories that produce weapons run 3 shifts per day, now 4 will be a bit tougher while wear and tear sets in and unemployment is indeed low, so building more factories is not going to be easy.
What is scarier is the collapse of Russia altogether. We saw what happened after the collapse of the soviet union with the civil wars in the former soviet republics. Either way this war will have no winners, sad.
I watched a video on Headshot yesterday with people interviewed in a decrepit former mining village with no jobs, no decent road, slum housing, no indoor plumbing, no gas supply, no amenities. Some of the interviewees had been led to believe in the past that they were to be allocated new housing but it never happened. They were worn out and hopeless. The commentator said at the end that the Russian fund for emergency rehousing is to be cut by 60% - one of the results of a War Economy presumably. He also played a couple of 'jokes' made publicly by officials about high prices e.g. 'If You Don’t Buy, Prices Are Normal'. I just wonder whether the Russians will ever stop being passive and depoliticised and actually start to protest en masse. Something like that happened because of the war in Afghanistan, and evidently far more Russians have already died in Ukraine than died in the earlier war, yet there's no real sign of public discontent about the dire state of the country.
I saw that too, good video from a good channel. Unfortunately the average russian is so depoliticised, the propaganda so overwhelming, and the security apparatus of the regime is so strong, that a popular uprising is highly unlikely. Until, perhaps, the money runs out and life becomes so desperate they have nothing more to lose
@@curiousemu6462 The interviewees were unusually candid in their complaints, but one lady when asked who was to blame for the bad conditions, just clammed up and wouldn't say, though it was obvious from her face that she had strong opinions that she was too scared to express. One day (soon I hope) the people will be brave enough to speak out fully.
been reading up on the Weimar Republic, and their inflation was brutal. this feels like the start of it, which means if Putin is removed, and all his corruption funds are evaporated off due to being inaccessible, it'll be worse than the eighties (their Great Depression, in some areas)
Weimar could have paid the war reparations if they wanted to. But for political reasons they did not create deflation by keeping the old taxes on the rich. Instead they did the opposite and gave rich people big tax cuts that caused massive inflation when that was not met with government spending cuts. And all price controls Germany had done under the war had worked well. Russians and Germans have historically been good at such stuff. However, when Germany got peace then it removed the price controls, and the inflation started to skyrocket into the air - just like a big air ballon that you push hard deep under the water, and the harder you push it down the more violently do it want to jump up.
“The Warburgs are a German-Jewish family that originated in Venice as the del Banco family. They moved to Bologna and then to Warburg, Germany in the 16th century, and took their surname from the city.” Opinion disregarded, Schlomo
I remember Howard stern About 20 years ago Used to have a bit on his radio show Called Become a Turkish millionaire Because apparently1,000,000 Turkish Lyra Was worth at the time like a 1.78
But just because Russia has already lost, that doesn't mean Ukraine has already won -- or will win. Unfortunately it is quite possible for Ukraine to lose before Russia collapses.
Very unlikely even if Donald wins and drops support the EU can prop up their economy like they are already doing right now.. (In cash Europe contributes more but it's defence industry is laughable small compared to the USA). Even so without leading militairy support from the USA it's influence over matters will be erased. In that case if Macron/Germany want they can give Ukraine nukes , long range missiles or the modern french fighterjets and then there is little the USA can do in that case. Play any strategic war game the stronger economy will always win if it drags out over a long period. Indeed Ukraine isn't a strong economy so it relies on western allies.. But those combined have more then enough cash to just give Ukraine enough to defend and wait till Russia's economy is no longer capable paying for the war.
That part is often being overlooked. Western elites act as if there is infinite supply of Ukrainians to fight for long enough before Russia collapses or, rather, they are ready to sacrifice Ukraine for this. Very grim thoughts flow through our minds here in Ukraine.
No, actually wages are not lagging behind inflation. Real wage growth is very high at 8%. For an average Russian at this point quality of life feels like it is improving. Which actually is EVEN WORSE when you think about it. Because we know that inflation and wage growth is caused by money being injected into irreversible reduction of its own labour force.
The west should release segments of Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine for each month Russia continues the war. This would be on top of gained interest already being used to rebuild Ukraine.
People working for these international organizations are not incorruptible. Recall the infamous interview of that guy from WHO about Taiwan’s WHO membership. Jobs at these organizations come with strings attached.
Russia's economy IS growing and not despite of the war but because of it. This is why the IMF/World Bank know what they're talking about. Will Russia's economy continue to boom? Of course not, but how long the Kremlin can keep it up will mean the difference between which sides wins. Slava.
Every time I hear this narrative I check the Ruble to USD, and sure it’s gone down lately but it’s not (yet) collapsing. It’s been sitting between $0.10-$0.12 for the last year. It has however been on a downward trend since the start of September, and if it continues we could see serious trouble for Russia. I suspect that if Trump loses we may see massive inflation in Russia as it’ll almost certainly guarantee Russia loses the war.
The amount of government bonds they need to sell to cover the rapidly expanding deficit is already so large and demand so small that they won’t come remotely near covering it in the 9 more bond auction days this year. I don’t completely understand the term “Russian Government bond index” but I saw people counting it down on Friday after the key rate announcement and it was breaking record low after record low to the point that it was as low as it was during the 2008 financial crisis by the end of the market day on Friday. Monday could be interesting. I smell a default in the works and unlike in the 1990s I don’t think Western and international institutions will be lining up aid packages to rescue them. There are many flaws of the Russian economy - some well known, others hidden well - that are feeding back on each other. Decline will accelerate quickly at some point soon. It will get worse.
Hi Paul, I really like the way you think and do your analysis. So, as a non-US citizen, I like to know who you expect to win the elections and how you come to your conclusion / idea. Would be great if you could make a video about that subject. Thanks! 🇳🇱
Food for thought on why Russia invaded Ukraine, is think about it when Ukraine was more or less followed Moscow. Its economy was barely registering. When they the Ukrainian people decided no we want better and turned westward, it‘s economy started growing by leaps and bounds. Then the Ukrainian government then started thinking about membership in the EU and NATO. This would be the worst thing for Moscow. A country that it shares a border with, being more prosperous and higher living standards. The war effort has led to the looting of consumer goods especially those with electronics, because they needed these for its military equipment, yet alone civilian and government needs. Then as the war progressed they are dragging stockpiles of Tanks etc into factories to be made usable again. Plus they are accepting ammunition etc from North Korea.
There is also the fact that the inflated amount they are paying their soldiers as well as all of the money being spent on weapons and the like. Russia's defense spending prewar was about $60B. It is now $145B. So even if the GDP is up a lot of it is going towards things that don't actually improve the lives of people. About 6.5% of Russia's entire GDP is military spending right now which is double that of the US and 3-4 times more than what most western nations spend.
A wartime economy looks good by many metrics. That changes when the majority of the population can no longer afford to feed themselves. Unfortunately for Ukraine, that won't happen in Russia for another two years or so.
Your videos pretty much have it all IMO - handsome guy in a beautiful locale, tremendous audio, intelligent, informative, and well-reasoned arguments & analysis, and subject matter that is both interesting and important. Well done, brother. I appreciate the content!
What needs to be stressed is that the Yuan is the beneficiary. What foreign reserves Russia controls are in the Chinese currency. There might not be a dollarization of Russia but a Yuanization.
Every video in this channel is about Russia failing. It's a nice fantasy, but Kyiv is on the brink. All this sugarcoating from the west won't help Ukraine get the support it needs... Slava.
Great video, thanks. I'd go as far as to say the IMF is complicit. The official "8.5%" inflation they parrot verbatim in the context of 21% russian interest rates is clearly impossible, especially so given the ultra low unemployment and what that means with regards to the Phillips Curve.
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What are you basing this on? The rouble has lost 10% in value compared to the beginning of the year.
have a look at wealth at deagel.and the correct to wealth per citizen Russia surpases the usa
then have a look at strength and combine russia and China. The usa is dead they just don't know it yet
arrogance before the fall
@oikoslibre6497 he's another American propagandist. America should get out of Europe. They caused this war in the first place
@@oikoslibre6497 so something like 75 to 97 is 10% for you? LMAO
Hey Boss, can I get one of your 10% rises?
People either forget or never knew..... Economics brought down the USSR, not military strength. I was working at NATO, specifically SHAPE HQ, when it happened. I remember.
You are correct, The old Soviet Union couldn't keep up with the US and Europe economically. Russia is repeating the same mistake in a 30 year span. Putin thought he could change Russia's fortunes with his perception of a weak US and Europe, especially after what he did in Crimea.
@@erichvonmolder9310 Sorry, but you both talking really wrong thing. Just think - USSR was a dictatorship (after all, it's you who said that mainly), and an ideologic(Communistic) one. So, think, could that kind of country collapse because if economics?? Of course, not. It would exploit its citizen to close any gaps in economy its government created. But in reality, it didn't even do it! It didn't have to! But I don't want to talk about real reason of its collapse..
It collapsed because it became truly democratic and turns out people didn't actually want the USSR in the border regions, once Gorbachev broke the dictatorship and allowed people to speak, a lot of what they were saying revolved around wanting independence from the USSR, but the USSR was just as dirt poor in the 1990s and it was in the 1970s, the only thing that changed was the dictatorship collapsed
The bit nobody seems to get is back in 1989 the west completely dominated global finance, global manufacturing, energy transactions, global
decision making etc, not anymore. Today the Russian Federation is a central BRICS partner.
@@liquidsnake6879 , They were poor as dirt and couldn't sustain the military to keep up with the US, a rising China and old Soviet states. Look at Russia today, they lost a large portion of the old Soviet military machine that kept them a scary military, now they are not so scary. As we have seen, interestingly the rise of Putin was in play and now Russia is worse than it has always been. caught in a war they didn't need and back to their old ways that didn't work. Putin has repeated the old Soviet ways.
Putin: sanctions make us stronger 💪🏻
Putin to Trump: Please stop sanctions 🙏
LOL Trump won't sanction russia. Putin is his idol.
Putin to the world, we are winning
Putin to North Korean, we need your help
Putin: "We are strategically reorganizing and consolidating our forces"
Putin: "Retreat from Kiev!, retreat from Kharkiv!, retreat from Kherson!, retreat from Snake Island!"
IMHO, we're lucky the Russian sanctions are Trump proof. We never had much trade with them anyways, It's Europe that Russia needs and Trump won't be able to do anything about that. Ukraine is in a bad spot when it comes to politics. Majority of Americans want to support Ukraine, but we're also having our own issues, and the powers that support Ukraine are wrecking us, our only option is an Pro-Russian stooge.
@@jtf2dan Retreat from Kursk, Russia.
I'm Italian, and old enough to remember the switch from the Lira to the Euro... At a 1936.27 to 1 exchange rate, thanks to the enormous inflation after World War I, the one after World War II that got stabilized with the Bretton Woods system at 1 dollar per 575 lire, and a few episodes after Bretton Woods collapsed.
The moment you said everyone in Russia was becoming a millionaire, I knew exactly what was happening.
I remember going to Italy twice in the early 80s and the reality of the Lira. Everything seemed to be in milliardi, almost. A small meal would mean transactions in big numbers.
Off course, absolutely exceptional country otherwise - culture, creativity, language, diverse natural beauty, ... and the food. Just excepcional.
I remember in the eighties, I took the highway. I had my wallet full of 100 liras banknotes. I thought I was comfortable…
But it appeared I did not have enough to pay for the toll! 😊
@@chefchaudard3580 Hundreds? Those must have been OLD notes, I was born in 1986 and the smallest note I've ever seen was the 1000 lire.
@@lordMartiya my bad… probably 1000, you are right.
As a Canadian tourist in Italy in 1989, I remember the exchange rate as 1 Cad to 1,000 liras. Plus, the cambios didn't take coins; "No coins!"
I was a millionaire as well when in Italy we still had the Lira... then the Euro happened and I became a peasant 😅
You, and many others! 😉
All for some farmland they don't need. Ridiculous country. Russia is an embarrassment to humanity.
It also creates a land route to the Crimea and takes over a few other significant / important areas plus access to some significant natural gas reserves. Terrible trade off overall, but it has more value than just farmland.
The natural gas fields are particularly important. It wasn’t until they were discovered, and Ukraine began to work with Shell in order to developing an extracting the resource to sell straight to Europe that Russia began to send men into the region to create separatist instability and shell backed away, not wanting to invest in an unstable environment. Russia was Europe’s main natural gas supplier and did not want Ukraine to undercut them or cut into their share of the market by selling directly to Europe themselves. Now that they’ve annexed the region, it is their natural gas to exploit and profit from
Its for Putin's ego. He has said he wants to be remembered as the next Peter the Great.
No, it's because Crimea's water source got filled in with concrete because it comes from Ukraine. And Crimea has recently discovered massive offshore hydrocarbon deposits, that would undermine Putin's attempted fact gas monopoly.
Aldo add massive amounts of Iron ore, Salt, Gypsum, and one of the main ones Lithium.
A guy in Utah in a crew t-shirt just explained the Russian economy with more clarity than most economists have been able to explain since sanctions have been in place. This guy has something to say. Nice work
Really? A simple Google search would show that the ruble hasn't lost or gained much value in at least 3 years. The reason russians are getting paid so much is because war creates jobs. Those jobs are highly paid compared to what they paid in non war time. Their salaries just went up from 300 bucks a month to 2000 dollars a month. In rubles. That's what happens when there's no one to fill the positions.
he is full of crap
@mtsky-tc6uw He is actually spot on. One of the best on UA-cam.
It's already been said many, many times. Experts don't explain this stuff because it's 101. Paul explains things in a way that the masses can understand. He does this quite well.
Not to forget that from that 650 billion rainy day funds.
Around 300 billion is frozen in Western banks. ❤❤❤❤
Yes, thank you! I noticed I forgot to mention this while editing.
And those frozen assets now finance Ukraine goverment.
LOL those russians must be really happy about that
I've heard a ballpark that RU is burning ~$1B per day of the fund...
Kinda what Biden was doin..😉
@@PAUL-em4tj Give it a rest.
Inflation in Russia is now 27%
Interest rate is now 21% p.a.
Italy alone has an higher GDP than Russia.
Indeed things are going great. Putin should stay away from open windows.
Notably, the interest rate went *up* significantly at about the same time they claimed the drop in inflation.
Down in his bunker there are no windows. Unfortunately.
@@Llortnerof I wonder if the Chinese Yuan is becoming a de facto currency like Argentina uses the US dollar.
Haha, GDP... Funny joke.
Wanna hear a fact about GDP? The US GDP is 25 Trillion dollars. The natural reserves of the US are 45 Trillion dollars. So combined everything of value in the United States of America and I mean EVERYTHING, gold, oil, gas, minerals of any kind, lumber, livestock, grain, all of it is worth 2 years of US GDP.
If you believe that you are a complete and utter simpleton. GDP is fairy dust, a number economists pull out of their ass to prop up New Monetary theory as long as possible so that elite can buy up everything with printed money.
And the sad thing is Putin seems to have an mental problem in which he is incapable of admitting he's losing , he fools himself that he is winning taking small pieces from Ukraine while he destroy's Russia's economy.
b-but Tucker Carlson said Russian economy was going amazingly!
That guy is a genius. I hope he starts an university one day where they can teach out Tuckeronomics.
He will repeat it for a million rubels, thinking that he finally became a millionaire.
@@carstenlaurenглавное что за цены можешь писать комментарии, такие какие нужны твоему хозяину😂
Hehe.
in fairness to russia i fudge my numbers on tinder too
i think in russia they have pinder
What is possible to fudge?
😂😂
@@myshepspud1your smooth brain
I knew t was you.....DAD
It's actually 21% interest rate.
In reality around 27%.
That's the official rate But not the one you need to pay if you mortgage a house.
With Russia there is always what is said and what is real.
That very fact that you can trust nothing and no one decreases a countries productivity significantly as elaborate control is needed and control is essentially overhead... just think about government.
Central Bank prime rate went up on the 25th to 21 percent. Ouch! If it's going up then inflation is higher than that. It was going down, then inflation is below that.
It's self imposed. It's not like the imf or someone else imposed it. This is old news. The russians stated they would increase interest rates. It's no different than the fed setting interest rates in the US.
@@Donaldthefelontrump They didn't say that. Why would they go from 19 percent to 21 percent with a claimed 7 percent rate of inflation? With 7 percent, everyone would expect it to drop, meaning that inflation is under better control.
Everything in Putins' Russia is a big lie
Simply,clear and very natural explanation.Even the length of your posts are optimal to keep atention and interest.
I've watched thousands of posts and followed bloggers since Russia invaded Ukraine.
You're one of the best bloggers if not the best about Russia and Ukraine war and facts.
What is even more interesting,your posts doesnt need special effects or copy paste of other blogs and media.
Keep on,your on the right side of history
Agree, also have you watched Econ Lessons on YT?
Haha... USA stock market..is a total lie..all fake shares.. China fake as well....smokenand mirrors around the world..maybe Scandinavian countries are...still ...good with the books
btw it's 21% interest rate now. You don't do that if you have just 9% inflation. Printing rubles only "helps" the government funding internally. To buy stuff from other countries they need hard currencies, and that's funded from their wealth fund, the liquid part of which is due to run out some time next year.
After that you will see the price of gold going down i think because then they have to turn their gold reserves into foreign currency..That gives them perhaps another year if that happens. After that there won't be even money left to pay out pensions.
@@randar1969there are already reports of planes loaded with tons of gold flying to gulf states and china, so they're already trading with gold. why the gold price goes up with this influx of gold is what puzzles me
@@randar1969AHAHAHAHAGA
@@thisColdDecemberWe mine gold, should we eat or what?
Russian demographics even before the war were bad. Child bearing age men numbers were seriously low, due to the collapse of the Soviet union! When Russia invaded Ukraine hundreds of thousands of the highly educated men fled the country! When Russia announced the conscription of Russian men many thousands of these men fled the country! War statistics estimate over 600,000 of these child bearing age men have been killed. Putin has also disproportionately targeted ethnic provinces for drafting men. These provinces, Siberia, Chechnya, etc,already hate Russia for over exploiting their resources, ie gas, oil, lumber, etc! Russia will collapse in the next decade!
😂Men are not yet capable of BEARING children unless I’ve missed something , they can father a child but so far it’s women who bear and birth children
Their demographic crisis is one of the reasons why Russia decided to invade Ukraine. Russia lost a lot of people when the Soviet Union broke up.
It will collapse in this decade or even the next 2 years💛💙💛
@@chaost4544the weird thing is, even if they get what they want ( a slice of Ukraine ) the only people who will stay will be deluded pensioners expecting to be looked after
Putin's legacy will be securing Russia's future as a vassal state of China.
In my opinion one of the best description of what really is happening in the Russian economy.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
Gold and Silver are often seen as a safe-haven asset that can protect against inflation and economic uncertainty. But like any investment, it carries risks. To determine if gold is the right investment option for you, an investment advisor can help you weigh the potential benefits and risks of investing in gold. They can also help you create a well-diversified portfolio that includes gold as part of a broader investment strategy. An investment advisor can help you decide how much of your portfolio should be allocated to gold and select other investments that can complement your gold holdings.
Investing in gold is a reliable choice, and I plan to keep buying more to make up for my losses. While silver is also a good investment, my collectibles are not as similar. It's important to have clear investment goals and educate yourself on the type of investment that interests you. I work with a financial consultant regulated by the SEC, and started small, but eventually accumulated over $800,000.
Can you provide instructions on how to contact your advisor? I'm experiencing erosion of my funds due to inflation and looking for a more profitable investment strategy to make better use of them.
‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get.
POV.. you ask the leader of the most sanctioned and impoverished nation in the world for 10,000 troops because you, the 2nd most powerful nation in the world are winning so hard...
China didn't ask anyone for 10,000 troops. So I don't know who the second most powerful country in the world is you're talking about LOL.
@@kurtwicklund8901 You don't understand that he is talking about russia?
that means you are quite dumb.
@@kurtwicklund8901 lol... sorry, i was going off military rankings Pre 2022 from whoever the F*ck thought Russia was the 2nd most powerful military in the world 🤣🤣
If i were you i'd STFU about someone asking for anything, the green t-shirt you rooting for were beggin everyone to come fight this war for him since day 1, the amount of western mercs fighting for him who were sent to hell where they belong have surpassed 10k very long time ago.
Green t-shirt: for the past 2(3) years was on a across the world trip for his begathon for everyone and everything to fight this war HE started and pushed for since 2014, countless western mercs, vehicles, ammo and systems were delivered
Westoid moron (you): I SLEEP
NK and Russia: join their forces due to Article 4 (which itself mirroring article 5 of NATO) after Kursk invasion of said western mercs
Westoid moron (you): REAL SHIT?
Pleasant way of speaking. Very clear logic in explanations. Really good video (again). Thank you!
Albert Einstein once said, "If you can't explaine a topic in simple, easily understood every day language, then you don't understand the subject yourself." You clearly understand the topic and you present it in simple, easily understood language. Or to put my comment in simple, easily understood language, well said sir, well said.
❤ 27% inflation rate is what some economic expert calculated.
9% is Russian official IR
+ interest rates in russia are now 21%, and in some banks mortgages reach 26% per annum.
Special Economy Operation. All according to plan.
What's Ukraines?😄
@@Jimmy-ye3wg It doesn't matter. Ukraine's entire economy can be subsidized by the west for 0.2% of their GDP.
@@lor3608 it theory yes, in reality not a chance. As seen already. Taxpayers have seen enough.
the economic effects of this war will hit the Russians very hard after the war is over. all the countries(Chinese Indians , Saudis , UAE) who lent money to the Russians under the table with high interest rates will come back and claim interest payment either in currency or in resources(at high discounts). esp. if Russia loses this war, coupled with political instability, and possible collapse of law and order also causes a Russian economic collapse after the war as Russia becomes a failed state. Russia's creditors will want their money back with interest and will probably start seizing Russian assets if the Moscow gov cant comply by force. (esp. for the Chinese).
Paul, clear, well understood on your part and well spoken. Keep it up, please! This is the kind of clearly understood and delivered news that we need in the world!
From the first mention of "Russians are becoming millionaires," my first thought was, "So? Everyone in Zimbabwe is a millionaire too. It just happens to be in their dollars rather than US dollars." And lo and behold, it's the same with Russia.
This is part of why GDP is a terrible indicator for an economy. All that GDP measures is how much money is moving around, how much is going to buy and selling with no real separation between the two, and it only measures _internal_ instances of this - i.e. no international trade included (oh sure, definitions of it mention exports, but not imports). That actually does not say anything about how any specific part of a nation's economy, let alone its entirety, is doing. In fact, right now, it sounds like the Russian ruble is going through the same thing that the German mark did in the early 1920s.
Oh hey, notice how it is 100 years after what happened with the mark, and it's for the same reasons: losing a war, losing many members of their population, and having to pay other countries in what are effectively reparations. I guess history really does run in cycles. In that case, can we expect Russians carting around wheelbarrows of rubles? How about a Russian Hitler?
Okay, dumb take at the end there, but not as dumb as Putin doing what he's doing.
No point carrying money around in wheelbarrows when the wheelbarrow is worth more than the money it's carrying.
@@tradward The money is to protect it on the journey. The wheelbarrow is for buying bread.
Putin _is_ the Russian Hitler .. they're having some inflation and the dictator both at the same time. The most likely scenario is that the current ruble will become completely worthless by the end of the war.
No wheelbarrows because electronic payments exist now. Although that could collapse too.
@@Llortnerof Yes, I guess rubles give a little rain protection to the wheelbarrow.
Anyone trusting Russia not to lie about its economy is a fool. Lying is the largest industry in Russia. A 21% interest rate is the only thing they can't lie about, and it's a sign of a very sick country.
Very true, Russia exaggerated the good and downplays the bad, but Paul is mistaken as usual. Russia's economy is still booming in a way only wartime economies can. It won't last, but if they keep it going long enough it will mean bad things for Ukraine. We should stop underestimating Russia and give Ukraine the help it really needs. More funds, more training, less restrictions.
But how screwed up is the planet because of him?
Putin the Putrid!
Poor PooPoo!
.
Have you ever actually listened to him speak? Have you actually listened to what he has to say rather than how the media parses his words and convolutes what he is saying? Have a bit of integrity. Actually listen to him and then talk about “how screwed up is the planet because of him.”
@@kevinmcmillan33
How has the war affected Food exports from Ukraine? What does that have to do with listening to him directly?
@@kevinmcmillan33 Grief. Defending the indefensible.
Worry more if Trump gets in just read project 2025 which parts want to reverse all climate activity!
@@kevinmcmillan33 lol have you?? stop being so gullible..if it looks like a duck walks like a duck and quacks like a duck its just a duck, sergei
Last time Russia had 21% interest rate just before Soviet Union collapsed, so...
So will russia also collapse and divide into smaller countries
Is that possible
@SK-sc1rb it's up to Russian people to decide. Look at Americans for example, you'd think it's a capitalist country but they just voted in socialist oligarchs.
I wish people would stop saying the rouble is 100 to the dollar. This is a fabricated exchange rate as the rouble is not traded outside Russia. I cannot find any money transfer that will handle roubles. Even in Russia the banks will exchange US dollars for between 150 to 200 roubles. The rouble is not money it is a local token of exchange.
You mean currency.
Exactly. The "official value" and street value are two completely separate things... Just like in the USSR. Official value was almost on par with the US dollar, but the real value was something else...
Actually inside Russia you can get dollars just under 100 and euros at about 106. Either cash or crypto. So that is the "real" rate but it is definitely going up at a pretty fast rate.
@@JCviggen1 Even if that is true, only in limited quantities I'm sure.
@joojoojeejee6058 Well define limited... the averagea small money changer probably has only 20-50k on hand but with crypto you can easily do several hundred K in one go
Thanks!
Thanks so much for the generous support!
Thank you! So sad, that this has to be explained... Best regards from Ukraine, Odesa!
In plain and understandable english indeed. Keep up the good work.
The official Russian interest rate is, I believe 21% not the 20% that you stated. Apart from that minor quibble this was an excellent video. I agree that the cracks are now showing in the Russian economy and if I might make a somewhat bold prediction those cracks will continue grow and become canyons in the second quarter of 2025.
It's kind of funny giving the title of this video, that all the commentators seem to know as much or more than the video creator LOL
it went up to 21% in the past two weeks, come back in December it will be 23% 😆
If you want to know about Russia's economy, look at the Superyachts at the Cote D'Azur, the luxury apartments in Dubai and the a-little-too-beautiful girls in Monaco. And then understand that the money for all of this was stolen from Russia by the russian oligarchs who enjoy all these niceties - outside Russia.
The privatizations in 1992 were the birth of the oligarchs
And their kids’ Nannies taking them to very expensive private schools in west London
@@odds87 Putin's oligarchs still lead a life of luxury in Londongrad
They are the creatures of US neocon ideology that was imposed on USSR .
To make a long story short.
1 Potato now equals 96.98 Potatoes.
Should try asking someone from the IMF and the World Bank:
If Russia's economy is doing so well, why don't other countries follow their lead... substantially reduce their income and at the same time substantially increase expenditure?
HYPERINLFATION LETS GO. BORSHT NOW COSTS 20,000 ROUBLES
"Borscht" is Ukrainian dish and it has nothing to do with russia! Just another example of russia stealing Ukrainian culture and history and representing it to western countries as part of hybrid war!
"Borscht" is Ukrainian dish and has nothing to do with russia. You can use "Schi" it is a truly national russian dish made of sauerkraut that smells and tastes like everything russia does
Borscht is Ukrainian food. stupid russians even lie about food
Simply explained for everyone to understand. 10/10. Subscribed.
The current exchange rate of the ruble to the USD is 97.1.
I visited Russia back in 1987 when the value was only 1.5
Not to mention that, in 1998, Russia did a denomination reform. So, 1 ruble of today is equal to 1000 rubles pre-1998.
To be fair, the real (i.e. black-market) exchange rate in 1987 was 5:1, not 1.5:1. Still, ruble has devalued 20000x since then
Official value and street value were two completely separate things in the USSR. And indeed the same is true today. Also, the Soviet Ruble didn't really have any absolute purchasing power. It was more of a token. You could buy something sometimes, if you had Rubles. But not much at will really.
The russian M2 increased by 17-18% a year. Trying to decrease inflation while pumping out rubles is self defeating.
This is what happens when you allow a corrupt moron in charge for 20 years.
Better to have a new corrupt moron elected every fourth year huh?
Trouble is: I don't think he is really a moron, in the usual sense of the word. He does what is best for HIM, given his goal: to stay in power and reinstate the Russian Empire. That'll make him a god in that country. Then Putin can relax in his luxurious mansion in Switzerland between his speeches telling his Russian worshippers more of the same.
Very good analysis. You may want to look at the economy of Serbia during Yugoslav wars in the 1990s. Serbia was pouring money into its war machine. They were also under sanctions. They printed and printed money, inflation followed and all Serbs became multi millionaires and then multi billionaires. It was all worthless money. Their economy collapsed. The war lasted 4 years. Russia is approaching year 3. The big question is how long will Russian public be able to take it?
Well done Paul.
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦
Turkey interest rate 50 percent Iran 23 percent all the despot countries mismanaged have the highest interest rates.
Yes but does it stop them from hurting their enemies?
@@randar1969 It sure does. Can't remember the last time I was bombed by Cuba.
China at 2%. You're all so dumb. This is funny
Great job! Thank you for your work!
Just stumbled upon you. Really enjoyed the video. I hope we can wake up our leaders in the US to pay down the deficit before our country collapses.
I've read articles that suggest the Russian sovereign wealth fund will run out sometime next year. I believe I also read that when their central bank raised interest rates to 18%, it's now 19%, the head of the central bank resigned knowing what was coming. Well maybe like in Zimbabwe they'll all soon become billionaires!
Political satire: Russian econ is STRONG....according to their press! Wait til BRICS establish their "Euro"....we should coward in fear 🤣😂😆. I'm too stupid to think for myself, to stupid to examine the reality and I'm too stupid to learn fundamental economics!!! I believe in whatever Russia and CCP is feeding me. 😁😁😁😛💩💩💩💩
Yeah, nothing to worry. The US can keep printing money ad infinitum, nothing will happen. Russia on the other hand...
Do you even know how much new money your government has printed in the last 30 years? ZERO. The number is zero. Private banks print money now and if you want to know how much money they printed, well, it's 20 Trillion dollars. In 1990 the total amount of USD in circulation, paper and electronic was 3.3 Trillion. Today after 30 years of New Monetary Theory the total has ballooned to 23 Trillion and almost all of it was printed electronically by private banks. I suggest worrying about that, Russia seems fine.
Thanks for the clarification! You explains things very well. Great vid!
I don’t think you wanna say that the rubble is inflating. Prices are. The rubble is devaluing.
Brilliant VOTE BLUE
Already did. Regeristered republican in a swing state here. Trump sucks.
Putin trump 2028!
There are two economies in Russia. One economy from people who are making money from the war and one of people who are not. Soldiers that are getting paid much more than before and death benefits are examples of people who now have money. There are defense workers working long hours who received wage increases to leave their old job to make war machines. These people have money. There are people who make money from this group. The other group are most of the people who are not in the first group and their life is doing horrible. Still, you go to Moscow and find the bars full and shopping malls not really empty because of group one. The Russian rainy-day fund has been completely depleted. No 350 billion left. Russian defense budget is supposed to become 25 percent bigger in 2025. North Korean troops are going to be a new cost, and this money will not return to the Russian economy. 2025 should be a year that Russia can no longer be keep its economy under any type of control. Business failures in areas of the country where they do not have defense plants is rising. The twenty per cent interest rate is beginning to kill the real estate market. For a while, Russia would subsidize home loans but had to stop doing that. Businesses cannot borrow money because they cannot afford the interest rates which are only expected to rise. With no borrowing, banks are close to failures. Watch the price of the Ruble and Russian interest rates in 2025 and by 2026 the whole thing should come completely unglued. The question is, with declining western support, can Ukraine hold out that long?
Thanks for the update.
Factories that produce weapons run 3 shifts per day, now 4 will be a bit tougher while wear and tear sets in and unemployment is indeed low, so building more factories is not going to be easy.
Thank you for the informative videos
What is scarier is the collapse of Russia altogether. We saw what happened after the collapse of the soviet union with the civil wars in the former soviet republics. Either way this war will have no winners, sad.
What a great video. From
Uk 🇬🇧
It's over a decade ago since I started to doubt anything is true, until Russia denies it :D
very good audio quality. Difficult to pull off outside.
Wonderful Paul
I love your intelligent comments! These are great. 😂😢😮😅😊
I watched a video on Headshot yesterday with people interviewed in a decrepit former mining village with no jobs, no decent road, slum housing, no indoor plumbing, no gas supply, no amenities. Some of the interviewees had been led to believe in the past that they were to be allocated new housing but it never happened. They were worn out and hopeless. The commentator said at the end that the Russian fund for emergency rehousing is to be cut by 60% - one of the results of a War Economy presumably. He also played a couple of 'jokes' made publicly by officials about high prices e.g. 'If You Don’t Buy, Prices Are Normal'. I just wonder whether the Russians will ever stop being passive and depoliticised and actually start to protest en masse. Something like that happened because of the war in Afghanistan, and evidently far more Russians have already died in Ukraine than died in the earlier war, yet there's no real sign of public discontent about the dire state of the country.
I saw that too, good video from a good channel. Unfortunately the average russian is so depoliticised, the propaganda so overwhelming, and the security apparatus of the regime is so strong, that a popular uprising is highly unlikely. Until, perhaps, the money runs out and life becomes so desperate they have nothing more to lose
@@curiousemu6462 The interviewees were unusually candid in their complaints, but one lady when asked who was to blame for the bad conditions, just clammed up and wouldn't say, though it was obvious from her face that she had strong opinions that she was too scared to express. One day (soon I hope) the people will be brave enough to speak out fully.
@@marijo1951 not until the regime ends. Unless putin is replaced by something worse, which is more likely that not.
been reading up on the Weimar Republic, and their inflation was brutal. this feels like the start of it, which means if Putin is removed, and all his corruption funds are evaporated off due to being inaccessible, it'll be worse than the eighties (their Great Depression, in some areas)
Weimar could have paid the war reparations if they wanted to. But for political reasons they did not create deflation by keeping the old taxes on the rich. Instead they did the opposite and gave rich people big tax cuts that caused massive inflation when that was not met with government spending cuts.
And all price controls Germany had done under the war had worked well. Russians and Germans have historically been good at such stuff.
However, when Germany got peace then it removed the price controls, and the inflation started to skyrocket into the air - just like a big air ballon that you push hard deep under the water, and the harder you push it down the more violently do it want to jump up.
Russia can make price controls and save up money... but those are just treating the sympoms of inflation for a while
“The Warburgs are a German-Jewish family that originated in Venice as the del Banco family. They moved to Bologna and then to Warburg, Germany in the 16th century, and took their surname from the city.”
Opinion disregarded, Schlomo
You're helping me see Utah in a different light. Cheers!
I remember Howard stern About 20 years ago Used to have a bit on his radio show Called Become a Turkish millionaire Because apparently1,000,000 Turkish Lyra Was worth at the time like a 1.78
And turkey is still in high inflation. I am still to understand how is it still functioning.
Many thanks for this great education. I’m fascinated with how Putin’s war affects the lives of everyday Russians.💙 5:41
But just because Russia has already lost, that doesn't mean Ukraine has already won -- or will win. Unfortunately it is quite possible for Ukraine to lose before Russia collapses.
Very unlikely even if Donald wins and drops support the EU can prop up their economy like they are already doing right now.. (In cash Europe contributes more but it's defence industry is laughable small compared to the USA). Even so without leading militairy support from the USA it's influence over matters will be erased. In that case if Macron/Germany want they can give Ukraine nukes , long range missiles or the modern french fighterjets and then there is little the USA can do in that case. Play any strategic war game the stronger economy will always win if it drags out over a long period. Indeed Ukraine isn't a strong economy so it relies on western allies.. But those combined have more then enough cash to just give Ukraine enough to defend and wait till Russia's economy is no longer capable paying for the war.
That part is often being overlooked. Western elites act as if there is infinite supply of Ukrainians to fight for long enough before Russia collapses or, rather, they are ready to sacrifice Ukraine for this. Very grim thoughts flow through our minds here in Ukraine.
No, actually wages are not lagging behind inflation. Real wage growth is very high at 8%. For an average Russian at this point quality of life feels like it is improving.
Which actually is EVEN WORSE when you think about it.
Because we know that inflation and wage growth is caused by money being injected into irreversible reduction of its own labour force.
Just got this video randomly suggested, man i just love listning to humans that are well articulated and have great understanding of a subject
The west should release segments of Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine for each month Russia continues the war.
This would be on top of gained interest already being used to rebuild Ukraine.
Great idea. So Nazilensky can kill more civilians in Donbass and Donetsk? Were you dropped as a child, Brian?
Very well explained.
People working for these international organizations are not incorruptible. Recall the infamous interview of that guy from WHO about Taiwan’s WHO membership. Jobs at these organizations come with strings attached.
I think the IR is 21% now in Russia.
Perhaps he will borrow some money from his boyfriend in North Korea.
They're not becoming millionaires. This is Zimbabwe 2.0 but with warfare in Ruzzia.
Russia's economy IS growing and not despite of the war but because of it. This is why the IMF/World Bank know what they're talking about. Will Russia's economy continue to boom? Of course not, but how long the Kremlin can keep it up will mean the difference between which sides wins. Slava.
Every time I hear this narrative I check the Ruble to USD, and sure it’s gone down lately but it’s not (yet) collapsing. It’s been sitting between $0.10-$0.12 for the last year.
It has however been on a downward trend since the start of September, and if it continues we could see serious trouble for Russia. I suspect that if Trump loses we may see massive inflation in Russia as it’ll almost certainly guarantee Russia loses the war.
Putin lost on Feb 24 2022, he's been clinging to the side of the drain ever since
When I was in Russia around 1991 it was around 2000 Rubles pour 1 $.
The amount of government bonds they need to sell to cover the rapidly expanding deficit is already so large and demand so small that they won’t come remotely near covering it in the 9 more bond auction days this year. I don’t completely understand the term “Russian Government bond index” but I saw people counting it down on Friday after the key rate announcement and it was breaking record low after record low to the point that it was as low as it was during the 2008 financial crisis by the end of the market day on Friday. Monday could be interesting.
I smell a default in the works and unlike in the 1990s I don’t think Western and international institutions will be lining up aid packages to rescue them. There are many flaws of the Russian economy - some well known, others hidden well - that are feeding back on each other. Decline will accelerate quickly at some point soon.
It will get worse.
Hi Paul, I really like the way you think and do your analysis.
So, as a non-US citizen, I like to know who you expect to win the elections and how you come to your conclusion / idea.
Would be great if you could make a video about that subject.
Thanks! 🇳🇱
Higher interest rate will make mortgage more expensive, but not the price of homes. Cash buyers are in a good position.
“IMF a reputable source” lol bro
Food for thought on why Russia invaded Ukraine, is think about it when Ukraine was more or less followed Moscow. Its economy was barely registering. When they the Ukrainian people decided no we want better and turned westward, it‘s economy started growing by leaps and bounds. Then the Ukrainian government then started thinking about membership in the EU and NATO. This would be the worst thing for Moscow. A country that it shares a border with, being more prosperous and higher living standards. The war effort has led to the looting of consumer goods especially those with electronics, because they needed these for its military equipment, yet alone civilian and government needs. Then as the war progressed they are dragging stockpiles of Tanks etc into factories to be made usable again. Plus they are accepting ammunition etc from North Korea.
Interest rates on 25 Oct 2024, in Russia - 21% - "it's all going according to the plan" V. Putin 2023
Excellent ....thx😊😊😊
Weimar Republic minus the cabarets.
There is also the fact that the inflated amount they are paying their soldiers as well as all of the money being spent on weapons and the like. Russia's defense spending prewar was about $60B. It is now $145B. So even if the GDP is up a lot of it is going towards things that don't actually improve the lives of people. About 6.5% of Russia's entire GDP is military spending right now which is double that of the US and 3-4 times more than what most western nations spend.
The workers would be further ahead if they got paid in toilet paper rolls
Thanks great information👏👏👏
Better than Peter Zeihan.
A wartime economy looks good by many metrics. That changes when the majority of the population can no longer afford to feed themselves. Unfortunately for Ukraine, that won't happen in Russia for another two years or so.
What Putin hasn’t ever lied in his life
Hi Paul, first time seeing one of your videos. What are your credentials on geopolitical events.
Farmer...
Your videos pretty much have it all IMO - handsome guy in a beautiful locale, tremendous audio, intelligent, informative, and well-reasoned arguments & analysis, and subject matter that is both interesting and important. Well done, brother. I appreciate the content!
Thank you for your reporting and analysis. Recent subscriber.
Excellent commentary.
What needs to be stressed is that the Yuan is the beneficiary. What foreign reserves Russia controls are in the Chinese currency. There might not be a dollarization of Russia but a Yuanization.
Every video in this channel is about Russia failing. It's a nice fantasy, but Kyiv is on the brink. All this sugarcoating from the west won't help Ukraine get the support it needs... Slava.
Great video, thanks. I'd go as far as to say the IMF is complicit. The official "8.5%" inflation they parrot verbatim in the context of 21% russian interest rates is clearly impossible, especially so given the ultra low unemployment and what that means with regards to the Phillips Curve.
Where raising the interest rate previously had a quite dramatic effect on the ruble, the latest rise has done zilch.
What are you using for a microphone?