Surviving An Apocalypse
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- Опубліковано 17 чер 2024
- If the end of the world is nigh, it may be too late to avert a catastrophe. So what can we do to mitigate the damage or recover after a cataclysm comes?
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▬ Cataclysm Index ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
0:00 - Intro
03:43 - Nuclear War
11:24 - Asteroid
15:34 - Supernova
18:34 - Gamma Ray Burst
21:51 - Massive Climate Shift
23:15 - Snowball Earth
24:34 - Super Volcano
28:51 - BioWar
30:46 - Zombie Apocalypse
32:25 - Robots / AI
35:10 - Alien Invasions
Listen or Download the audio of this episode from Soundcloud: Episode's Audio-only version: / journey-to-alpha-centauri
Episode's Narration-only version: / journey-to-alpha-centa...
Credits:
Surviving An Apocalypse
Science & Futurism with Isaac Arthur
Episode 385a, March 12, 2023
Written, Produced & Narrated by Isaac Arthur
Editors:
Briana Brownell
David McFarlane
Lukas Konecny
Graphics by:
Fishy Tree
Graham Tattersail
Jeremy Jozwik
Ken York
Legiontech Studios
Music Courtesy of:
Epidemic Sound
Markus Junnikkala, "Hail The Victorious Dead", "A Memory of Earth"
Stellardrone, "Red Giant", "Ultra Deep Field"
Reign Pagaran, "Distant Voyager"
Sergey Cheremisinov, "Labyrinth", "Forgotten Stars"
Tara Harkavyi, "Alpha and..." - Наука та технологія
"There is a light at the end of every tunnel- just some times that light is an incoming freight train"
Not original to Isaac, although most often it's not specified what type of train. A collision with any locomotive is more than sufficient to ruin your average pedestrian's day.
The apocalypse will be AI putting us all in a giant retirement home and us complaining why they only visit once a week
Matrix Hills: An Assisted Dying Community.
Nah, I don't want them to visit because they'll tell me to turn down my music or stop playing hide and seek with the kiddos that visit.... And definitely not allow me to keep passing out whoopie cushions & fart spray to the kids/adults with the elders who are completely deaf and nose blind (from all the loud music we were warned about, I'm not sure about being nose blind) No more modified wheelchair races on Thursday nights or concerts on Fridays and probably no more dirty movies on Saturday evenings. (Dirty Jobs with Mike Rowe ya know)
This might be surprisingly accurate.
@@flashraylaser157 I hope so, because I don't see how we can compete with a tin can that has the theoretical capacity to think up to 3 million times faster than us.
Hey ChatGPT, write a story in which an advanced AI puts humanity in a giant retirement home…
You casually explaining your near-death experiences in the army was unexpected.
Explains his man made global warming brainwashing propaganda. He can't think for himself.
Same! I had no idea he served in the military so hearing his stories came as a huge surprise 😳
First rule of warfare. Expect the unexpected.
@@samiam4544 First rule of warfare. Always be ready to learn and apply a new first rule of warfare.
@@samiam4544 I believe the one from that particular was "Learn to Duck" :) It's one of the more important ones.
Only Isaac can calmly explain with reason and fact how many apocalypses won't really wipe out humanity.
Another wonderful Sunday episode Isaac.
:) Thanks
So glad to see someone be realistic about how effectively we could "destroy the human race" during the cold war.
I'm generally against the smug tone this kind of statement implies. it's entirely reasonable for the average person to believe Carl "nuclear winter will kill us all bro trust me" Sagan, then and now. Sagan, for his part, was cynically exaggerating the threat of nuclear winter, for the rather admirable goal of trying to convince people that nuclear non-proliferation was a good program to pursue as long-standing foreign policy.
in all, my view of Sagan has been irreparably damaged by that cynicism which drove decades of terror over something that was bad enough before he and his buddies presented a preliminary report on the climatological effects of the particulate cloud nukes create upon detonation. that said, I will never fault anyone for buying into it. I mean, it was Carl Sagan man. that guy is like THE model of a science communicator.
@@gender_nihilism
I believe that Neil Degrasse Tyson is currently doing the same thing to his reputation regarding climate change.
@@gender_nihilism Yes, I too ruin people's lives by making them think the world is going to end in order to stop us from retaliating if the (much less severe) situation does ever come to pass.
The human race would likely survive even the worst nuclear war scenario. But even the most "optimistic" scenario escalating to mutual ICBM exchange would still suck. Like, really, really, SUCK! Just look at the economic fallout of the Ukraine war, and how many millions are facing starvation from that.
@@gender_nihilism nuclear winter sound terrible - agriculture would collapse and take civilization with it but, I agree, not everyone would die.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter what do you think . . . world wide one out of 100,000 might survive? That would be ~80,000 but how many would be women of child bearing age? How would the men and women find each other and feed themselves to repopulate the planet?
There was the en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20genetic%20bottleneck,to%203%2C000%E2%80%9310%2C000%20surviving%20individuals.
The show must go on!
Considering that Isaac plays Stellaris, it's great that Paradox confirmed that pre-FTLs will no longer always completely obliterate themselves in a nuclear war in the upcoming updates.
I mean, post apocalypse start was already a thing, but it would be cool to see what else they can do.
@@particles343 It was, but this upcoming patch/DLC will allow primitives to get the origin. Until now, they always died if nuclear war happened.
@pll3827 that's good, because it is very difficult to completely wipe out humanity (or any planet-wide species) with just nuclear weapons, so an automatic planetary death is illogical
@@pll3827 dunno if you noticed, but stellaris is more of a story-fiction rather than actual scientific simulation. it's stage-drama with sci-fi trappings.
As a artillery crewman I am super troubled by hear about your close encounter with the receiving end of our munitions. Though I’m glad to hear that you are okay at the same time
Wasn't Isaac artillery, too? Though your statement could mean 'our' as in 'Isaac's and mine' or 'our' as in 'arty like me.'
Was it high was it low where the hell did that one go
@@OOL-UV2 that’ll happen. That’s why I stayed in the infantry where it is safe lol.
Best be ok... cause they ain't gonna admit to it hurtin twinkies cream filling
Especially if there's no reasonable explanation for clandestine heart failure and compression waveatitus
We should subject every advanced AI to the Turing Test, but also to the Sirius Test (named after the protagonist of Olaf Stapledon's novel *_Sirius,_* a dog who hid his human-level intelligence from most of the humans around him), examining it for signs that it is concealing how intelligent and integrated its mind actually is - in other words, whether the AI is dogging it.
Link for this? -there is some college prep testing company named Sirius Testing that is bolloxing up search attempts.
@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 Oh, darn, and I liked that name so much....
A most excellent coverage of the topics. I recall a web site that claimed, "Good news. You will survive the nuclear war!". It was speaking statistically of course. It cheered me up quite a bit. There is a psychological paradigm that shows that everyone believes some catastrophe is just looming over the horizon that will wipe out 99% of the population. The amusing part was that each individual believes they will be one of the survivors. It makes sense, because assuming the opposite would be oh so depressing.
Why would I want to survive?what would be the point of it? I would find myself the best seat in the house and be able to see a second sun before I die 😂
. . .to be fair, there isn't much point in making contingency plans for being among the dead.
If it was Mad Max or the Walking Dead I think I'd live because I could rely on nature. As long as I can pick birds out of the trees I'm good.
If an asteroid hit or nukes destroyed the environment I'd give myself a 50/50 chance, more if I have allies
@@SkinnerNoah Unless most of the population was wiped out, It would take maybe a week for starving people to eat all of the nature.
You'd be eating corpses like everyone else.
@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 there are billions of rats to hunt, and countless insects. May not be the best food but it's better than longpork
Always a good Sunday when we get to watch Isaac
Isaac, I just read a pretty good post-apocalypse yarn, set 800 years in the future after an apocalypse that caused societal collapse so severe that no one knows its origin. It’s called “The Second Sleep: a Novel” by Robert Harris. You might want to give it a read.
Another great episode! No surprise, though...
1. Is it just me, or has the BGM gotten much, much better lately? Or am I this sleep deprived?
2. 32:47 that robots' clip, man. This looks-like-a-face-at-a-glance effect is something!
That's seems under debate, I gather a lot of folks felt it's been getting louder... turns out it was true
@@isaacarthurSFIA Well, I liked it! But it is, of course, for you to decide!)
Isaac you make the only videos where I have to watch again and again because I'm always reading the creative comments from all of your viewers.
I love all of your content. The fact that you mix between hard science and SciFy is amazing. Keep up the good work
My favorite video so far. I usually listen to your videos while I fall asleep, but not this one. Loved your stories from the army.
It's funny, I actually found this to be uplifting. It doesn't seem likely that we'll all die out any time soon when all the various doomsday situations are broken down like this. Unless a huge alien armada is hurtling our way, that is...
Why would an alien armada bother destroying the earth. The other planets have more resources.
The alien armada would just mock us, empty the solar system, then offer us second class citizenship for technology. 😅
@@markjohn4203 I was joking, but you're completely right.
ua-cam.com/video/gA1sNLL6yg4/v-deo.html
@@markjohn4203 If Earth is really that worthless and inconvenient to them, why wouldn't they just blanket the entire surface with relativistic projectiles and wipe us all out? That would give them a certain probability of 0.0 that we would attack them one day.
Assuming they trust us that is, or consider us even remote peers. I mean they may just view as inherently evil monkeys that if offered greater strength/intellect would inevitably just cause issues
The reason I love your videos is that it fills in some of the blanks from all the possibilities of how we end or survive in the future , although terrifying I sort of am heartbroken that I won't be around to experience 99.99999 percent of earth's future even if I live to 100 its nothing compared to what i or we will miss out on ...
You only have to live long enough that the treatment that makes you live 10% longer lets you live to the treatment that makes you live 20% longer, etc. so on so on recursively.
Just live long enough that anti-aging treatments slow your aging to the point that you're still alive for the invention of the technology for suspended animation that gets you preserved long enough for the tech to actually restore you to youth to be developed. It's quite possible that the first immortal has already been born, even if it's a few hundred years until they actually know it. It's a bit less likely (though nowhere near impossible) that you and me might be lucky enough to benefit from it too!
So keen for another episode ❤️❤️
Thank you so much for these videos you seem to be the only person truly optimistic about the future, The video is your Has helped a lot with my anxiety
Thank you so much for being on this topic!
Thank you, I was looking forward to that video from you since the war started. And never before thought of de-urbanisation as (somewhat) effective strategy during a nuclear conflict
Please make a sci fi Sunday playlist!!!!
I think that's a good idea
I howled at the thought of catching up on my reading and hobbies after the apocalypse. That ad transition was a classic!
Breakfast and contemplating various levels of existential dread, I’m ready.
I think a big question is whether or not one would even WANT to survive an apocalypse. In the classic original Twilight Zone episode called THE OLD MAN IN THE CAVE a group of nuclear war survivors were living miserable lives where it was all they could do to stay alive and one of them angrily said WE HAVE NOT BEEN LIVING, WE HAVE BEEN SURVIVING!!!
It's certainly how you feel watching something like Threads. That film gave a VERY bleak portrayal of nuclear winter. The people who survived had to deal with radiation sickness, scarce food, looters and no help from the government (though not from the government's lack of trying). It even cuts to 13 years later, and it depicts society with medieval population levels, bare bones technology, and kids that are uneducated and mutated. The last scene is one of a stillbirth, which spells out a bottleneck situation for the human race. The film came out of '84 and had a slew of advisors on it, including Carl Sagan. I am curious if Isaac has ever seen it, and what he would think of how its depiction holds up today.
@@Satellite_Of_Love I remember Threads (didn't remember the title, but your description is on point). That was interesting. I would love to hear Isaac's thoughts on it.
@@Satellite_Of_Love the stupidity of this statement "could plow your fields like normal and keep on growing" is beyond imagination... the man here just ignore the "detail" nothing will grow if no sun shines out there, the water is contaminated, and the cesium half life is not "1-2 years" .
We have China arming with nukes as fast as they can, both Russia and US expanding their stockpiles, and the few still standing nukes control treaties abandoned every day... and, worst, we have senile idiots like US president at the head of one of the biggest nuclear armed nations... Yet, somehow, for Isaac here and some deluded folks, all is pink and nice, because in the lala land, "you could plow your fields like normal and keep on growing" ... Sky reaching stupidity...
Haven’t seen you in my feed lately been wondering where you’ve been!❤
knowing that the species or society will survive mass death scenarios doesnt stop them being tragic, brutal and scary. definitely worth serious organising efforts to prepare for, prevent or migitage them.
CONGRATS PRESIDENT ISSAC!!! Long time viewer, very excited to see the growth!
That sign off line about the twilight zone episode about the reader whos glasses broke at the end of the world hit me. I was thinking about that shitty scenario like a week ago. Another one that gets me is the guy who dies and is tortured in hell by getting everything he wants. Gives me chills every time.
"when the soothing light at the end of your tunnel, is a freight train coming your wayyyyy" - metallica
Congratulations on your appointment at the NSS! Best wishes for a fulfilling and fruitful service!
I found this video very comforting, thanks 👍
I don't think I've ever felt more upbeat about the apocalypse than after this video.
Nice, Isaac is crossing over into another one of my favorite genres, apocalyptica
Surrender to the aliens?! Damn Protectorate converted Isaac to their cause. :P
Ah, my favorite youtube genre: existential dread. Also, the last time i was this early, Godfrey was still the first Elden Lord.
I'd like to see an episode just covering some of the stories from your time in the military.
99% of them would be incredibly boring :) Most of the remainder probably too
You down with OCPs?
Yeah, you know me.
Congratulations on your appointment in NSS Isaac. You deserve it. You are a true ambassador of the science
As far as I've heard, I've already survived around 9-13 Ends of Days...looking forward to your take on it!
Are you a 7th Day Adventist or something?
@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 Nah, just tuned in to the media...people been babblin' about the End since I was a kid.
At 4:20, the video of mixed trajectory of landing missiles, completely missed the harmony of missiles trajectory to a counter clockwise rotation of earth that makes all ICBMs to approach their targets from west and course adjust after reentry into atmosphere
Great video though. Really enjoyed it
One note on the book of Revelation -
One of the disasters is a "star" called Wormwood that falls to earth and poisons the water on the planet. Suprisingly a similar scenario imagined if we were hit by a comet.
The Mistborn Trilogy will always be my favorite fantasy trilogy ever. I've lost track of how many times I've read it.
Thanks for sharing & no to apocalypse!
Thanks for your service sir. And your vids. :)
"when it comes to disasters, you often get a bulk discount." ... that really nail the nature of disasters. Put me a smile but quickly have to stop thinking deep since the truth behind the statement bites really hard...
With nukes, the real issue is dealing with the injured while most infrastructure in the areas are crippled.
Modern nukes are actually quite small, but that just means more people with burns and wounds left alive in cities, that are going to include most of the young, fighting age men.
A country getting nuked's biggest danger is being invaded by a conventional military force afterwards, ironically for weapons sold as 'the end of warfare'.
I like your optimism Isaac, even if I don't share it.
Laughed when you suggested going to higher ground during a tsunami while the background image was the top of a building falling.
The planes at 3:44 used when illustrating bombers are small cargo planes, the C-47 (Cargo type 47), otherwise known as the DC-3 airliner.
Yay new video
Hate the fact that Scifi sometimes make for the most unlikely shelter places for post Apocalypse. Like a train in "Snowpiercer", or a Silo in "Silo" or a Nuclear Submarine in "The Darkest Hour".
Really unbelievable.
Welcome home my brother. Im a vet too. I love your show
Thank you for your service and sacrifice soldier
Had to rewatch with a different 👀👂 left them thinking well done my friends both of you your time and effort shine 💯💖🍻
They all say the same with a big rusty dusty brain start thinking and not on there social media 😂
TRUE
There is a great Crusader Kings 2 mod called After the End (AtE). It is a total conversion mod set in a 2666 A.D. post-apocalyptic North America, centuries after a cataclysmic Event knocked human civilization back to the medieval era.
With all sorts of interesting cultures that developed.
Tough the original mod has been abandoned and is now continued by a fan made fork.
For any of these apocalyptic disasters, the best chance of survival and reconstruction would be if we could read the warning signs of impending doom and preparing for it. Now obviously, the more time we have to prepare, the better.
The fear for bioweapons is not a state actor, but rogue operators as the tech becomes more accessible.
Congratulations! They chose well with you, and you'll do great.
Yessssss on the mistborn call out!!!
15:00 A supernova does not appear fully in an instant way. If you have a shield you can unfurl or move into place, you might easily have time to do so when you detect the event beginning.
The threat of the apocolypse is nearly as stressful to think about as Monday morning.
2250A.D. - Andre Norton - great book about this.
I'm a prior TEAM guy, that that was in Ramadi peak GWOT; 07/08. I imagine dystopia would appear similar.
I love your videos. I'm broke or I'd be a paid member or patron (or however you have it set up) the content is just that good and interesting. Wish you the best. Cheers from H-Town!
I was in the kill zone of multiple 155's, the only way I could describe the explosions is like static on TV. every time one went off things just kind of fizzled out of existence for a moment
Greaaaaaat timing :3
Hyped for the drive compendium 😁
Something you mentioned with nuclear war is interesting, nuclear trench warfare, or pentomic warfare is a really crazy idea which still may end up being useful knowledge in the future.
I'm personally writing a setting in which 1950s europe had a prolonged limited nuclear exchange and the ramifications politically among the survivors. A Russia which reformed its communism to be syndicalist, a new french republic, the english falling back on the security of the king and the germans falling apart as a state, instead taking the ideals of the war era and applying it to a new HRE of pseudo anarchic states losely held together
"Pentomic"!, that was the word I kept trying to remember, thank you. My brain kept inserting 'penultimate' when I was writing and trying to recall it.
I gotta say isaac (may I call you isaac?) You're a legit stud.
Issac I think you are our new alien overlord.
"Hail & rise all to Arthur of Issac, subjects we all are to him and his own."
13:56 How far up and away from the coast is safe? The Olympic Mountains on the Peninsula, along with the shape of Puget Sound, might protect Seattle and Tacoma. It depends.
If you’re talking about a large tsunami event…. Seattle and Tacoma will definitely flood, but the mountains on the peninsula (above the height of the wave) would probably be “fine”.
The waters would recede in (I believe Isaac said) about a day or so?.. but Seattle and Tacoma would definitely have a lot of damage, and a lot of deaths if such a tsunami came with no warning at all.
Oh…. More on point…
In a “typical” tsunami, 10 miles inland is generally enough.
John Ringo's Under a Graveyard Sky (1) (Black Tide Rising)
Gives a fairly realist portrayal of fast zombies and a mechanism for their creation.
I highly recommend anything by John Ringo but will warn that Ghost (Paladin of Shadows Book 1) the hero's is a little dark and kinky for everyone's if he didn't control himself so well he could easily be the villain.
Issac, if you want a _really_ scary episode, let's do a Cobalt-60 apocalypse. Enough Cobalt-60 to contaminate the airstream and cover the globe.
I second that.
@@LaserGuidedLoogie Seriously. Aside from bioterrorism, Cobalt-60 is about the most dangerous thing I can think of.
The UK did an experiment that showed that it doesn't fission as easily as thought, so it would probably take billions of dollars worth for a proper doomsday. But, still.
@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 I agree. I think think the combination of nuclear war, with the concomitant flux of high energy neutrons, as well as all of the Cobalt 59 in the cities, would create a doomsday scenario. That doesn't even take into account the fact that some nuclear missiles are jacketed in Cobalt 59, which would create a blanketing of gamma ray producing Cobalt 60 over a large area of the planet.
@@LaserGuidedLoogie I don't believe we have jacketed nukes. Certainly not publicly disclosed ones.
@@jengleheimerschmitt7941 I would hope not, but I have read that some people claim to have seen them.
As long as it comes with a background choir
The best channel
Isaac, I absolutely love your channel. I’ve been a subscriber for years and rarely miss a video.
I do have a small criticism, however. I find the background music incredibly distracting. I feel it takes away from your crisp, expressive narration. Maybe I’m alone in my opinion and others like it or at least aren’t bothered by it.
I only mention it because I care.
I think he makes all of his videos available with OR without the music.
Possibly on one of the other platforms?
I’m not sure exactly, but I know I’ve seen something to that effect somewhere. I just never looked further because I rather enjoy the videos “as is”.
Hell yeah!
Hi Isaac
I've been following and watching your videos for years now and I love all of your material.
With this video, I'm finding the music you have is almost swamping your speech, and I find it distracting to the point of finding it hard to continue.
Please consider, at the very least, turning down the volume of the music. I don't think you need any music behind you at all. Your narrative doesn't need any of that backfill and you sound great on your own.
Thanks
Daniel
Very prophetic
To the volcanic winter survivability point, I'd like to add that in history we have been on the back foot for food, only in the modern age do we have the odd situation of most people not being involved in food production. It would be a harsh changeover, but turning most of our efforts to making food or generating energy for food production should be doable.
Comming from Kurzgesact, surviving the apocalypse is a nice video to go to sleep just fine.
Isaac, congratulations on your installation as president of NSS. Well deserved.
A rouge AI that just wants to repair roads....lol dude that would make a funny movie.
Snowball Earth scenario?
I think you'd be able to eat Algae. Not many people, but some might survive.
Do you have a video on what would happen if earth ran out of a resource like oil, I know it's been predicted to happen some time in this century and I was curious.
Could you cover a realistic cyber war scenario? Such as one which could happen today or in the near future.
I think this overlooks one of the less obvious but more likely apocalypse scenarios; that being a human version of the mouse utopia on a civilization scale. We're already exhibiting similar behavioral patterns and pretty much all of the wealthier nations are experiencing sub-replacement birthrates. Realistically, at what point does that behavioral sink turn around, how much damage has it caused, and what does the path to recovery look like? Does it result in another global great depression (best case scenario in my opinion, given that only one or two lost generations would be required to collapse most countries financially) or does it get so bad that human population drops back into the millions and we can't support the infrastructure for current tech (I'm dubious we'd recede beyond that into near-extinction) or somewhere in-between?
so glad to see ur video sir would u mind if u put a korean subtitle plz?
"There is alaways a light at the end of the tunnel, but sometimes its an oncoming freight train" truer words have never been spoken before lol.
36:15 Star Trek finally adressed this fact , that that a K2 civillisation that only has a dyson sphere around one star is orders of magnitude more powerful than the entire Federation due to the sheer amound of energy that civillisation has access to, in Star Trek: Discovery Season 4
Well timed, since it starts tomorrow.
William Rosen, in his book Justinian’s Flea, speculated that slivers of a comet may have been what caused the events of AD 536.
I agree, we would all welcome our new alien overlords, until we can run away or fight back, even if it takes hundreds of years.
The best show on the internet is back!!!
You make an apocalypse seem less apocalyptic - knowing what we can actually do, and that it isn't nothing, helps me to feel more prepared and less doomed, at least for the race as a whole.
I think most people fail to consider, about the different kinds of possible Apocalypses (Apocali? Apocalodum?), is which ones are worth trying to survive, and in which ones are you better off being one of the first to die?
First choice is right
Concerning a few of these events, physical destruction, (War, Comet, Asteroid, Massive Volcano, Tsunami) could impact the worlds hundreds of nuclear power plants. Picture runaway reactor failures all over the world, no back up power to contain reactor failures. Spent fuel pools being abandoned and neglected. Yikes!
A very real problem though in most cases the catastrophe causing that neglect and failure would be so big compared to the result of the reactors failing as to make that failure something of a footnote.
Most reactors are built to require power to stay on, as a fail safe. The issue with Fukushima was that it was not built with such redundancies
I can't remember whether it's been discussed already in an earlier episode, but if not you could discuss opening a portal to a hellish dimension as a disaster. I think the notion is ludicrous but potentially interesting. You also discussed a zombie apocalypse which imho is so absurd all the attention it seems to get is a little silly.
Even that wouldn't be too bad, the moment an angry enough man shows up with a pistol and 50 bullets that Hell invasion is as good as over.
@@RevolverRez -LOL like Doom?
If prep for a zombie apocalypse, you’ll be ready for economic collapse, civil unrest, war, EMP, etc
“Zombies”, as usually portrayed by Hollywood, is a rather absurd and unlikely scenario.
However…
A “zombie apocalypse like” event, is absolutely possible. It would require some type of deliberate intervention of sorts…. some laboratory tampering with, meddling with some virus with the intent to create some bio weapon (not that humans ever do such things).
Imagine some secret lab doing “gain of function” research…. NOT on some mundane respiratory virus, but instead on something like rabies…. A leak (or deliberate deployment) from such a lab could have terrifying results.
It may not involve “real” zombies (whatever THAT means)…. But the overall effect would be about the same.