Sports Betting Analytics - Using a Monte Carlo Simulation to Project In-Game Win Probability
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- Опубліковано 12 лис 2024
- For those of you curious, I finished the night up about $40: i.imgur.com/VK...
This video demonstrates how I use my in-game MLB dashboard I developed to project live win probabilities for each team. These win probabilities use a simple system of round robin matrices from my monte carlo run data dump to estimate live win probabilities.
A Monte Carlo simulation is a popular method to assist gamblers with their bets. The benefit of a Monte Carlo simulation allows a person to generate theoretical means for matchups based on the statistics inputted into the model. However the downside is that these simulations can take time to run, especially the larger your sample size.
Projecting real time in-game win probability does not have the luxury of being able to wait on monte carlo simulation run enough times to be statistically stable. Therefore you have to get a bit creative on how to estimate in game win probabilities for live betting purposes or to just simply see where your bet stands. If you can store your monte carlo simulation data, you can reference it and then use matrix round robins to generate estimated win/cover percentages.
Monte Carlo and Ai has been so good to me. With sports betting ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
What platform do you use for simulations
Do you simulate soccer?
“Outliers and instability” perfectly describes you, Big Willie Style.
printing money from sportsmodelanalytics dot com picks
I've been profiting like crazy off sportsmodelanalytics.com and their forecast models. Seriously the best 24 bucks I ever spent
This is glorious, I have been researching "sports betting in the uk" for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried - Henaden Adventurously Epilogue - (Have a quick look on google cant remember the place now ) ? Ive heard some incredible things about it and my mate got excellent results with it.
So, are player stats figured in any of this?
cool i'm getting to know your channel now, i'm having difficulty i use google sheets to do my basketball projections but when i play game results into the spreadsheet it is only upright do you know how to change that ???
Can you share how you got updated scores by hitting the, "refresh," button on your spreadsheet?
I pulled it from the MLB.com API
only here bcuz I won huge off this game. just tailed www.sportsmodelanalytics.com predictions
In excel you can pull data from places
This is awesome, thank yoou
Hey, just a quick question, are those live ML in column 1? Love the channel man. Diving into R and excel has been so much fun
Being on holiday, I decided to create a Monte Carlo Simulator for Wild Card Weekend, I used an adjust team score as the seed for the randomizer and Std Dv of the two teams past year's scores. It was trending towards all covering, except for New Orleans. Although it was a great diversion from all of the left-overs, I wondered if it really offered any information.
What are your thoughts regarding using Monte Carlo Simulations and in which situation would it be? Would you consider doing UA-cam video?
How predict pseudo trackside game 1to 12 numbers
great video
how do you simulate the games? What are these simulations based on?
You calculate the expectation of various events and the probabilities of those events occuring
Based on what you think it will happen?
This is yet another example of why I shouldn't have slept through math class
Wow, This can be implemented in countless other ways too.
Will you share any spreadsheet?
No as these are all proprietary. Hours and hours of hard work put into them so giving them away for free would not be fair to me.
@@williamleiss4 would you consider selling? Looking for a reference to use in making a hockey spread sheet.
Do you live in DFW area? I see the TCU jersey in the background and in one video you mentioned watching the Rangers. I live in DFW area too.
No I live in San Diego, havent lived in Texas in years
@@williamleiss4 You played for TCU, right? I am season ticket holder
@@TCS088 Yeah I was on the 2008, 2009 and 2010 teams. Last game was the Rose Bowl.
@@williamleiss4 The Rose Bowl victory was sweet! Cool
Imagine thinking beating the bookies is this difficult
How much are you down?
my bookie is gonna try and shut down www.sportsmodelanalytics.com for sure before he goes broke.. lol
hopefully my bookie never figures out that i literally just follow picks from sportsmodelanalytics dot com
my bookie is gonna try and shut down www.sportsmodelanalytics.com for sure before he goes broke.. lol
God bless sportsmodelanalytics dot com, lol. Their pick cashed for me huge
Never knew you were a jew gn
Do you live in DFW area? I see the TCU jersey in the background and in one video you mentioned watching the Rangers. I live in DFW area too.
I used to, live in San Diego now, hope to move back to TX someday. I hate it in CA
hopefully my bookie never figures out that i literally just follow picks from sportsmodelanalytics dot com
How does this sportsmodelanalytics help?