Our understanding of probabilities is WRONG
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- Опубліковано 8 чер 2024
- Xisuma Says Playlist ► • Xisuma Says
@xisumavoidspeaks about people giving sentimental meaning to coincidences and how those coincidences relate to statistics and odds of happening.
Watch the full VOD on @xisumatwo
Hermitcraft Nine (147) Livestream 10/10/23
• Hermitcraft Nine (147)...
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00:00 Wizard of Oz and Dark Side Of The Moon Sync up
01:42 Selectively Choose What Syncs Up
02:44 Special Meaning Behind Coincidences?
04:02 Examples and Discussion.
06:53 Are Humans Supersticious By Nature?
08:00 Odd and Outside Variables
09:35 Outro
Edited by: @SkyfighterZX
#xisumavoid #statistics #chances - Ігри
The infinite monkey theory is also relevant here - that infinite monkeys bashing typewriters will eventually write out the entire works of Shakespeare by accident. There's so much data being produced every day now, it'd be weird if you *didn't* get crazy coincidences.
Xisuma having a totally sober stoner moment
🤣🤣🤣🤣
A lot of clocks back then didn't run on electricity. They needed to be wound up or weights adjusted. If there's a war on or someone's been sick for a week, something like winding a clock may have slipped people's minds and the clock just happens stop around the time when a person dies.
Pattern recognition! For me I can be amazed by coincidences with numbers, however humans invented the decimal system so it's important not to dig too deep
It just so happened that CGP Grey recently has a video talk about something similar. The example he uses is the one-in-one-million-chance rock-paper-scissor twenty-contiguous-win run.
Rock Paper Scissors in a truely random vaccum? Because there's quite a bit of a mental component to the game, so much so that some mentalists can probably win 20 times in a row multiple times
Matt Parker from Standup Maths made me understand probility in a very more intuivite and clever way, coincidentally it was on a minecraft related topic.
it was about the classic Dream Speedrun with his tremendous luck.
He calculated the odds for that which are just numbers that don't make any sense as you lack the scale. But he then used a more graphic example.
If every person on the world would do one such speedrun per second at the same time, it would take like thousands of years till one person would hit that chance. And this just clicks at how utterly ridiculous those odds were.
to be fair, this is more about big numbers and not entirely what this video was about, but I love to remember that
I was legit going to comment about his video. I think a part of that video that matches what Xisuma is saying more closely is when Matt Parker was talking about Craps. The rarest Craps win was extraordinarily rare at first glance, and whilst he did work out it was feasible with how many games of Craps have been played, it was still pretty damn rare. Because Matt Parker WASN'T looking at the luckiest Craps performance, he was looking at the luckiest performance in games of chance full stop. He wasn't comparing Craps game to Craps game, but Craps game to every game of chance ever played.
Oh haha I just left a comment about Matt Parker before I saw this one
Exactly! 👍 It's the "Law of Large Numbers", when you've got sooo many movies, songs, and people, it's _inevitable_ that _something_ will eventually match. It's like how the odds of YOU winning the lottery are low but the odds of SOMEONE winning it are high. It's also "Confirmation Bias" in that the _entire_ thing won't match but people only notice the handful of times that it does and ignore all the parts where it doesn't.
Also, lots of clocks and watches had to be wound up. Winding was an everyday thing, so during war or tough times, or grave illnesses, the winding was sporadic.
xisuma low key explains why conspiracy theories exist
Conspiracy theories don't exist _because_ coincidences exist, coincidences without conspiracy theories are just statistical curiosities that make you go "huh".
Conspiracy theories happen because the real world is deeply deeply complex and people want an easy story to tell themselves about it. Take world government/illuminati stuff, it's utterly ridiculous but it makes sense in a weird sort of way if you let it "why did X country and Y country do Z thing, that's so weird" well maybe not with a world government in charge! Everything is planned, everything has one singular motivating reason, you just don't know what it is, it's not that humans are strange irrational creatures who act in occasionally unpredictable ways, it's all perfectly predictable, see? It's an easy story to tell yourself and it takes a lot off your mind...
Coincidences don't cause conspiracy theories, but they do support them once they come into being.
BLART Side of the MALL
Paul Blart Mall Cop also syncs up with Dark Side of The Moon.
You had all the 11s in the thumbnail, and today Dbrands teardown skin got stolen by a large company, and in the skin they hid “11 11 11” because it was the day Durand was founded Nov 11 2011, what a crazy example of exactly what you talk about in the video
There's a term for this: synchronicity
Really interesting subject!
Honestly, with the odds and everything.
Um.
I went to a convention a month ago with my best friends. We were all cosplaying as different versions of Sans the skeleton from Undertale (I was classic Sans, my friend- let’s call her Chili- was Fresh Sans, and then my friend… uh… dang it, can’t use his username, as it includes a swear so…. uh, CatLover was Error Sans)
We were the only people we saw in the entire convention cosplaying as ANY Undertale or Deltarune characters.
Now, for the odds?
There were probably around… I dunno, four hundred people at the convention? About 25% of them were cosplayers.
And then me and my friends, well, we’re FRIENDS! We planned in advance and all chose to be Sans. So that probably messed it up a bit, I dunno-
We all go to the same school, and I have 4 periods with CatLover, and 1 with Chili, but we see each other in the mornings before class starts. And we’re also all in our district’s gifted program and we see each other all day every Thursday.
Most people didn’t recognize our costumes. BUT
THERE WAS THIS REALLLYYYYY NICE LADY!!!
And she was promoting her cosplay repair business.
AND SHE KNEW OUR COSPLAYS! SHE WATCHES UNDERVERSE! So we talked with her, and she’d actually made this really cool sewn fanart thing of Ink Sans and Error Sans. And she also posted a pic of us to her Tumblr!
So, even though we were barely recognized by most people, there was at least one person :D
also
uh
i know that the British apparently don’t celebrate Thanksgiving
but
Happy Thanksgiving!
Further reading: "The Improbability Principle". The author enumerates 5 Laws like the Law of Large Numbers and the Law of Close Enough that, especially when taken together, explain why extremely unlikely events happen all the time. A common example is having the same name or birthday as someone else; get enough people together or even just wait long enough, and it actually becomes less likely that you *won't* see any coincidences like that.
If something happens to one in a million people, you should expect it to occur to about 8,000 people currently alive.
Matt Parker has a great presentation that touches on a lot of these points. It's called "clutching at random straws" and can be found on UA-cam.
Great thoughts. I always enjoy your waffling and find I ponder a lot about the topics discussed afterwards. Thanks for sharing.
At school we showed "Dark Side of the Rainbow" - about half an hour in I found myself charmed by the movie and wishing we were just watching Wizard of Oz with its original sound. The whole sync up itself didn't impress me much when we actually did it, but the cultural phenomenon around it did get me to stop and appreciate both the movie and the album.
I agee with the things you say. However, I feel like there must be some weird things going on.
F.e. when I worked as a cook, guests for some reason used to order the one thing a lot, that we ran out of. And you could calculate with it. The dish would not be ordered for weeks. Then you run out of it, and suddenly you have 3 or 4 orders of it at once.
Or now, where I work as a mailman. When you run out of time on your tour, suddenly the majority of packeges you have to deliver, is in the 3rd or 4th floor.
This is not something I imagine. Its something I really look out for. I keep track of where I deliver the packages, so not to feel like it happens only when I run out of time. It still does.
This video made me think, if the universe is so vast isnt it inevitinble theres a duplicate version of earth in every single possible way.
Classic case of correlation vs causation
4:02 Hey, that's me! Nice!
Me, eating an orange: That is the best orange i had in my life
Xisuma: I have a theory...
I dunno enough about clocks, but maybe they have some sort of maintenance, and so if the "man of the house" isn't around cause he's at war, maybe it's more likely to stop (again 0 clue if that's the case, but another thinking point on top of the pure likelyhood)
I think of it like this: there are so many things that can happen in one moment that the probability (ignoring the probabilistic universe theory) of anything is almost zero.
it's zero
You're right, but only on a very specific physical level. For cultural stuff that X is talking about (like a song syncing with a movie), there are a huge number of different ways it could happen. Because there are so many people trying out different things, the probability of anything like that happening is almost 1.
Long ago my roommate and I tried the "Dark Side of Oz" synch-up, and The Dark Side of the Moon actually made a pretty good soundtrack for The Wizard of Oz, at least for the run time of the album. There are a few parts that line up rather well, and some that are just okay. Of course, the human brain is really good at making connections between things that don't really have any connection at all.
the Hamilton cast recording almost exactly lines up with the Hamilton show on Disney+
COINCIDENCE?? I THINK NOT
thank you for this one. my dad is super into this stuff and uses it as justification for his belief in god, i am an atheist and he always says 'oh it's never a coincidence'. it winds me up.
that said me just clicking on this video is using confirmation bias to justify my (lack of) beliefs
I'm not a spiritual person but just pinning things on superstition or the supernatural downplays the progress we've made so far. My parents immigrated from Laos with no education and from there, they believed they did something bad in a "past" life and bad karma if they got sick. Now they understand it was malnutrition and the living conditions. 😅
"Posted 5 hours ago"
Me : "Nice. I'm early."
Xisuma needs to say more often
I agree to that statement.
"posted 11 minutes ago."
Anyone know who makes Xisumas thumbnail avatar and pfps?
i don't get it, so for every 6 irons and 1 stick you spend 1 gold, 1 cobblestone, ⅙redstone dust, and 1+⅙ stick?
My favorite synch up is Sid the science kid Bad and boujee. Idk why this comment got deleted
Does everyone get an extra 800 👍 for Thanksgiving? Love the thoughts X