GTO facts: the solver would always fold Q2 on the river, as well as any other Qx except Q7 and QJ. That also applies if we give the solver only this 90% cbet on the flop (which would then be used with 55% frequency).
I thought bluff catchers on the river are always 0EV mixed call/folds as long as you beat all opponent bluffs (which isnt very hard against such a polarized bet). Any idea when this is the case and when it isnt?
@@felixacb8895very complicated. Maybe if your opponent is very aggressive and bluffs more than population you should call more and vice versa. That’s an exploit and not gto but seems right.
@@felixacb8895 theoretically yes but a solver will happily fold an appropriate chunk of bluffcatchers as long as it meets MDF for every action. In this case the bb range contains a great amount of Jx by river and therefore it can fold almost all of the Qx when facing this river shove. Surprised to see Linus deviate w all the Jx in his range that he can defend with.. but these guys are many levels ahead of me so I'd be curious to hear his analysis for why he overcalled river.
@@erikolson5291because he unblocked all flop FDs and having a deuce unblocks the straights draws, assuming stefan never has a jack, Q2s is the best call down possible, Stephan’s flop bet is just shit, it’s too thin and if we have a sub 1% flop 90% cbet, it’s obviously going to be bottom set mixed with some low equity bluffs rather than middle pairs…
We should probably factor in the flop Qs as one of the main reason why Stefan deviates and goes with the bigger cb size otf. Pivotal card that possibly leads to high ev draws ott
Stefan is range filtering using an exploit of betting polar on the flop vs opponent. if opponent continues he has Qx +better draws, and gets max value on turn/river vs those hands. He can use this large size to exploit his calling range and its pretty awesome concept.
Bro , this was it. U got it. I agree with this ‘range filtering’ u say. I am going to screenshot ur comment brother because this is high level play at action
@mikegoodwin5951 😆 there is no playbook for someone like Stefan. This is obviously not a normal play that you or I would make, and it's not something that you would even do as RNG. That's why your commenting about my knowledge of poker and didn't post your stakes, bankroll, live/online, BB/100, etc. It sounds good to talk shit, but you can't back it up. If you can, then we can play heads up on GG or ACR 👍
@@blakeengland7784 I tried twice to post my results but youtube wont allow me to pos the link. Lets play heads up bud, pick your stakes. I wont play lower than 500nl tho.
If what you mean by polarization mistake is he should never have Jx in his range, then no, that's not the case. He should have less, but not zero. Simply because on turns like this, he doesn't want to never have any trips
you can't make a polarization error as you are "polarized". Meaning your bet is value or a bluff. His flop bet is exploitative as well as probably only being bet on the Qs present on the board 👍 he could be balanced but I doubt that he does this @ 60%+.
@@2CardConfidence thx ! We dont know his strat precisely but would it be too much of a stretch to assume his betting range will contain too many second pairs ? (since he is considered aggro). So we could exploit him by attacking his Xing range ?
KJ might be the worst possible Jx he bets for value in this polarized flop bet. As 2card said just to have some Jx in range. It should be very few though and maybe AJ only, because bb vrs a polarized range can continue with all his Jx as bluff catchers and AJor KJ both beat alot of that. Probably going to be checking back alot of turns and turn the Good J into a reverse-float-bluff catcher. This particular turn (J) will be checked back by alot of theQx in stephans range which explains the Q2 calloff. The turn barrel is way more polarized than the flop cbet, stephan is repping basically good trips+boats, maybe some KK and AA. I think its hard to find bluffs vrs the BB call here since the flop bet eliminated all the air already and some of linuses draws might raise flop. I lean towards folding river but I can see the virtue of blocking/unblocking effects of the Q2.
Linus will have him destroyed long term if hes snapping on that river stefan bust be unbalanced massively in these spots and this is just one of the timeshes got it
@@couteauxduseignanx4625 I know it's hard to tell through text but I'm kidding. I played over 200k hands in the last 2 months. At this point I just troll people just to get a rise out of them.
The fact that people still think that after playing more and more makes it a very unique game I bowl for a living and can hustle people exactly once In poker, it takes decades for people to figure out they are even a dog
Do you fancy playing against a GTO bot? Do you fancy playing against a GTO bot with solutions that are 97% accurate? How about 90%? Or is it all pissing in the wind?
GTO facts: the solver would always fold Q2 on the river, as well as any other Qx except Q7 and QJ.
That also applies if we give the solver only this 90% cbet on the flop (which would then be used with 55% frequency).
I thought bluff catchers on the river are always 0EV mixed call/folds as long as you beat all opponent bluffs (which isnt very hard against such a polarized bet). Any idea when this is the case and when it isnt?
@@felixacb8895very complicated. Maybe if your opponent is very aggressive and bluffs more than population you should call more and vice versa. That’s an exploit and not gto but seems right.
@@felixacb8895 theoretically yes but a solver will happily fold an appropriate chunk of bluffcatchers as long as it meets MDF for every action. In this case the bb range contains a great amount of Jx by river and therefore it can fold almost all of the Qx when facing this river shove. Surprised to see Linus deviate w all the Jx in his range that he can defend with.. but these guys are many levels ahead of me so I'd be curious to hear his analysis for why he overcalled river.
@felixacb8895 no.
@@erikolson5291because he unblocked all flop FDs and having a deuce unblocks the straights draws, assuming stefan never has a jack, Q2s is the best call down possible, Stephan’s flop bet is just shit, it’s too thin and if we have a sub 1% flop 90% cbet, it’s obviously going to be bottom set mixed with some low equity bluffs rather than middle pairs…
We should probably factor in the flop Qs as one of the main reason why Stefan deviates and goes with the bigger cb size otf. Pivotal card that possibly leads to high ev draws ott
Playing 2 NL or 10k NL... it doesnt matter😅
😂😂😂
Hahaha shiiit
Stefan, the god of think value betting
Fish
Stefan is range filtering using an exploit of betting polar on the flop vs opponent. if opponent continues he has Qx +better draws, and gets max value on turn/river vs those hands. He can use this large size to exploit his calling range and its pretty awesome concept.
Bro , this was it. U got it. I agree with this ‘range filtering’ u say. I am going to screenshot ur comment brother because this is high level play at action
Sounds smart except Blake doesn’t know wtf he’s talking about
@mikegoodwin5951 😆 there is no playbook for someone like Stefan. This is obviously not a normal play that you or I would make, and it's not something that you would even do as RNG. That's why your commenting about my knowledge of poker and didn't post your stakes, bankroll, live/online, BB/100, etc. It sounds good to talk shit, but you can't back it up. If you can, then we can play heads up on GG or ACR 👍
@@blakeengland7784 I tried twice to post my results but youtube wont allow me to pos the link. Lets play heads up bud, pick your stakes. I wont play lower than 500nl tho.
You have good powers of observation, pretty smart.
It's interesting to me how cash games at the highest level are just like what chess would be if it was a calculated guessing game.
It’s crazy how much carryover there is btw the highest levels of both games
that's leveling on another level
Solid 😭
Stefan doing crazy❤
Is it fair to assume that Stefan made a polarisation mistake on flop making him lose in a long run ?
If what you mean by polarization mistake is he should never have Jx in his range, then no, that's not the case. He should have less, but not zero. Simply because on turns like this, he doesn't want to never have any trips
you can't make a polarization error as you are "polarized". Meaning your bet is value or a bluff. His flop bet is exploitative as well as probably only being bet on the Qs present on the board 👍 he could be balanced but I doubt that he does this @ 60%+.
@@2CardConfidence thx ! We dont know his strat precisely but would it be too much of a stretch to assume his betting range will contain too many second pairs ? (since he is considered aggro). So we could exploit him by attacking his Xing range ?
@couteauxduseignanx4625 There's no way to assume this without having enough data to support it
KJ might be the worst possible Jx he bets for value in this polarized flop bet. As 2card said just to have some Jx in range. It should be very few though and maybe AJ only, because bb vrs a polarized range can continue with all his Jx as bluff catchers and AJor KJ both beat alot of that. Probably going to be checking back alot of turns and turn the Good J into a reverse-float-bluff catcher.
This particular turn (J) will be checked back by alot of theQx in stephans range which explains the Q2 calloff.
The turn barrel is way more polarized than the flop cbet, stephan is repping basically good trips+boats, maybe some KK and AA. I think its hard to find bluffs vrs the BB call here since the flop bet eliminated all the air already and some of linuses draws might raise flop. I lean towards folding river but I can see the virtue of blocking/unblocking effects of the Q2.
It’s funny because all that talking about gto, he made it quite clear clear he had a jack 😂😂😂
He can have T9 or KT
Why should everybody play the same ? F* that I am Stefan 🙌🏻
Who are they?
Two of the best Cashgame Highrollers 😏
What if the turn was a Q what would change
Q wouldn't improve Linus's range more than Stefan's, so would be less likely to see a donk from Linus
Linus should still continue even facing a big bet. But folding to the river jam right?
Stefan chek behind the turn then 😁
Linus will have him destroyed long term if hes snapping on that river stefan bust be unbalanced massively in these spots and this is just one of the timeshes got it
Rekt
The more poker I play the more I realize its all piss in the wind. What the cards do they do.
If it was just "piss in the wind" how can you explain that some people crush the game and some dont ?
@@couteauxduseignanx4625 I know it's hard to tell through text but I'm kidding. I played over 200k hands in the last 2 months. At this point I just troll people just to get a rise out of them.
The fact that people still think that after playing more and more makes it a very unique game
I bowl for a living and can hustle people exactly once
In poker, it takes decades for people to figure out they are even a dog
Do you fancy playing against a GTO bot? Do you fancy playing against a GTO bot with solutions that are 97% accurate? How about 90%? Or is it all pissing in the wind?