Will ALL Modern Players' Cards Be Worthless In 20 Years?
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- Опубліковано 8 вер 2024
- Collecting baseball cards is one of the best pass times and hobbies out there. One question however is, will all modern players' cards be worthless in the near future? We can look 30-40 years into the past and see that not many players are holding velues. In this video we discuss why we think this is and if any modern players will be different. We will also discuss if Nolan Arenado is overpriced, if Chris made a bad trade, and more!
Arenado is still hitting 30hr and 100rbi a year away from coors in St. Louis that is definitely a pitcher friendly ball park. I’m a defense guy that is why Arenado is my favorite current player and Ozzie Smith/Yadier Molina are my all time favorite players. People who can’t appreciate and value defense it’s the problem.
Chris here - I used to LOVE watching Andruw Jones play centerfield and Andrelton Simmons play SS.
Thanks for watching!
The conversation about traditional stats vs modern stats is a very interesting one. Whenever it came to collecting up until pretty recently, modern stats didn't push value, those traditional stats did. The biggest issue with modern is exactly what you showed. 2 sites and those stats were different. Traditional stats have always been the same no matter where you looked so those still carry more weight to a huge chunk of collectors.
This is a great point. There’s no formula for HR and RBI. It’s just a simple number.
Definitely something to the simplicity of 500HR or 1500RBI OR 3000 hits.
@SpitballinCards right simple works for most fans. We'll have to see how the values of these that have the high modern stats hold up long term. Looking at active players with war for example, the top 10 are all pitchers with their rookies holding good value ( Verlander, Greinke, Kershaw, etc) but other than rookies, not much else with good value
Nobody talks about collecting pujols cards. That’s crazy to me. Oh well, I’ll keep stacking
Yeah it’s crazy! He’s the best hitter most of us have EVER SEEN!!
His best rookies - retrofractor, bowman chrome auto, Future Watch - amazing cards!
Stack away!!
The biggest thing now is the fact that prospecting costs 3-5 figures for anyone with any hype. Back in th at pre refractor Era, 30 bucks was what was considered prospecting.
The thing also with modern vs 70s-80s and even early 90s is the fact it is way more easier to collect the 1-5 rookies that existed for hof players. Nowadays that number is in the 100s so it'll be a more select group of cards that some will go for, while others will go for the more common stuff. That will dilute value with not the whole community persuing the same cards. Also with the higher prices on many of the unknowns, there really isn't much room to go up. Grading has also really made it a different model. Where 10s are what many want and therfore prices are crazy. 9s for most can be very affordable even for those top of the line players ( 89 ud griffey is a great example)
Good points! I would argue that there's money to be had in cheap(er) baseball prospecting, IF you have time. My bread and butter is $10-$60+ prospect buys into 1.5-3x, it takes time and research but it plays. This year I've made well over $500 flipping prospects while keeping about 20 awesome (IMO) cards for the PC. It's obviously not a career by any means but making money in the hobby I enjoy is a great feeling! That being said, basketball is my main PC, but Bowman 1st's bring excitement to my HOF (& Orlando Magic) basketball PC
@@shorebreakcards yep although that is only for a small amount of time. The cards can be found on bargain bins without sustained hype.
@@richardbianco9674 100% agree! Evolution is all about adaptation, and you gotta adapt or die. About %50 of my buys have been break even or losses, and as soon as I get the feeling the player won't hit, you gotta sell asap. I've held a few, but the gains outweigh the losses heavily when you're buying low-mid end. As long as you take the time to research and you have an average or above IQ, you'll make money.
9’s definitely offer a great value on lots of cards. You know it’s real, and probably looks perfect to the naked eye.
You guys are the best and great for the hobby!!! Thank you
Thanks for watching!
Manny Machado has amazing defense. Because he’s a third baseman in the NL he won’t have any NL gold gloves but as you mentioned with the bias MVP voting there is a huge bias on Arenado for GG
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Thanks for watching!
Regarding Arenado, not overvalued imo. T-Pott makes a good point. The elite D with gold/platinum gloves combined with the pretty consistent raking at the plate is a big differentiator. MJR Sportscards has a great channel with an impressive Arenado collection. All kinds of parallels.
Future of ultra modern baseball card values is a fascinating topic. It’s a combo of numbers, personality, and supply/demand of key cards. Great example is Griffey. He commands a premium because he put up the numbers, has an infectious love for the game, and has the 90s inserts.
Griffey sure does, but how many Griffeys are there out there?
We mention Frank Thomas a lot - absolutely absurd offensive stats, first ballot HOF, but most of his cards are very affordable. He’s way way below Griffey in value.
It takes a lot for a player to really rise up above the rest of the hobby. Not many do.
Watching this show made me go back and check my Betts PSA cards. I found that I have the ssp in a PSA 10. Totally forgot I had it. Thank you for rekindling my Betts passion. Been a Red Sox fan my whole life.
Chris here - which Betts??
2018 topps ssp. I knew I had one of the short prints but did not realize it was the super short print. @@SpitballinCards
@@sprtsfrk2005 Awesome find! And thanks for watching!
Also. Good conversation guys. You know more than me. But the reverse coors field effect thing. If that’s even a real thing, according to his numbers, he had way more power in his Rockies days than out of Coors. The players obviously benefit more than don’t.
Yes for sure. The park is huge so more hits fall in, and the thin air means more balls fly out! More hits, runs, RBI, HR, etc.
Great discussion! Most players we think are ‘undervalued’ will never become ‘fairly’ valued. Especially after 8-10 years as a player. Have to get that price peak and hobby love early or it rarely occurs later in career. Guys like Mookie and Machado will have great careers and make it into HOF but don’t imagine their card prices will ever show that. Lots of HOFers - Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Yogi Berra, Jim Thome, Musial, etc never see big price increases outside of moves to the overall market.
Would be cool if CardLadder or Market Movers added a graph of players’ card prices during their career year - ie show Mookie’s BCA price after his 1st, 5th, 10th year, etc. Imagine it keeps sliding over time for most players. Show the alpha vs overall market. People like shiny new things! Old broken down 38 year olds aren’t interesting and - the collectors who do/did like those players generally already bought their cards earlier in career and may be tentative about adding more. Will Scotty B still be buying Mookie in 2030? Who was buying Miggy and Pujols - all time greats - when those players were 35?
Thanks for watching! You make some
Great points. Definitely a collecting lull as a player’s career winds down.
Sometimes the final season gives collectors a chance to really appreciate accomplishments. Pujols cards definitely got a bump
Last year, though possibly also due to his surprising performance.
Love the username, btw!
And thanks for watching
I love this. Everyone has a different opinion about certain players which is great. I think Arenado is fairly priced but he just doesnt have the hyped collectors that pay top dollar for his stuff because of other players like Harper, Soto, Ohtani and Trout. I think the big money goes to those guys instead. His stuff sells to pure collectors not investors and to people that love baseball statistics and metrics. Great topic guys. Keep it up.
Yep, I’d agree with that as well. Not everyone in the hall of fame has cards that take off.
Thanks for watching!
Love the video, guys! As an Arenado collector, i could make a very strong argument on his behalf but I enjoyed hearing everyone's perspective. :)
We all have our guys!
I think we were all afraid Chris would launch into a passionate, 2 hour Freeman lecture!
@@SpitballinCards I’m here for the Ted Talk when he decides to present it lol
MJR has one heck of an Arenado collection. Highly recommend his UA-cam channel. He got me interested in Arenado and I’ve been picking up some of his cards here and there when I have the chance.
@@JohnNP3 well thank you very much, John! I really appreciate that! Especially among these guys, who I respect very highly. Thank you!
Arenado: a good sleeper that doesn’t draw big attention. I have a 2014 topps rockies team card in a 10, but need to pick up a few more of his early cards.
Definitely a potential long term play.
Just buy Lebron and Kobe! All jokes aside (not really), its impossible to see 25 years into the future, i don't even know whats up with next year! Just collect what you like, have fun and if you want to invest in generational wealth, buy something tangable that won't burn in a fire. I feel like we can get caught up in a bubble, or sometimes quick sand, and we just need to take a step back and evaluate what's up! Another great listen, keep up the good work!
Yes! 💯
Collect what you like!
Only spend what you can afford.
Sound advice.
Thanks for watching!!
Awesome show. You guys collect and think like I do.🤘🍀🤘🍀🤘🍀🍺
Glad to hear it!
Thanks!!
18:31 drama in the LBC, it's kinda hard being snoop d.o. double g.....
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Sorry but hearing about Arenado from a Rockies fan isn’t going to be objective. It’s interesting how the Machado comparison is always thrown out there. Why? It seems that there was some trigger there. Machado no doubt had a better year last year. I don’t think he’s that far from Arenado defensively. He’s a wizard at third. But the gold glove award is a bit silly. Soto was a finalist last year. Stop it. They like to have players who win it several years in a row. It’s biased for sure. I think Machado is better but Nolan is a very good player.
I’m with you on Machado - and I like his projections over the next five years over Arenado’s.
Gold glove voting is way better than it used to be, but it tough to break a players streak.
We’re excited to watch these 2 over the next 5+ years.
Thanks for watching!
What a great team you all make, good topics, super topic, excellent stories. Along with great info, these are fun to watch and informative as well. Thanks guys!
Glad to hear it. Thanks for watching and commenting!
Great panel of guest!
Really appreciate the support! Thanks!
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Like your discussions. Prices in general need to come way way down and they will. Can't wait to go to shows - not quite yet - perhaps in two to three years - ti start buying guys out at shows. Keep it up guys.
pulling for austin riley for 2024 mvp , but jr will repeat with a 30/60 plus season
Great conversation guys I enjoyed hearing everyone opinions 🤙🤙
Thanks so much for listening! 🍻
Thanks!!
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Tells me how old I am I recognizing all those 1984 possible MVP players they listed. 😂
You sound plenty young to me!!!
Excellent topic &.discussion. Really interesting....sometimes its a popularity vote, sometimes merit, sometimes feeling, and sometimes the era. The voting process is more inconsistent than the players they're actually voting for. Enjoyed this video keep spit⚾in' 👍. BTW i'm a Seattle fan and have always been a Arenado fan and collected him more than Freeman. Seems he boosted a franchise like the Rockies more than Freeman did who seems to be surrounded by a better cast. Not to mention he's intense and straight out competes every time and doesn't come with the baggage Machado does imo. Honestly felt he could've taken that MVP in like 2016 again imo.
Arenado had a great MVP case in ‘22.
He was fantastic in Colorado, and now has 2 fan bases in his corner.
We’ll see what that does for his values long term.
Thanks for watching!
I’d love to bash ScottieB here, but as an “objective” bystander (that owns more Machado than Nolan A), if their careers were to end today, I believe Arenado would be more memorable (and as a result probably more collected) in 20 years. Nolan A is more well-liked and recognized by the unsophisticated and sophisticated masses for his “overall” abilities at this current moment.
Having said that… many more years to come to evolve and define their legacies.
Absolutely 💯💯💯
Insightful and enjoyable conversation to listen to for someone who doesn't watch much baseball. Stats are like guerilla glue that a player or fan can't escape from, however they can be passionately argued. One question, how much more attention would we give some of the older greatest players if all of these awards were available when they were playing? Keep up the collaborations. Just subscribed.
It’s weird to think there was a time when a other coukd t win multiple MVP awards.
But that’s what statistics are for!!
Thanks for watching! 🍻🍻
Enjoyed the show👍
Thanks for checking us out!
Riley and Devers are very good players but they will be lucky to have the kind of career Arenado will end up with in terms of all-around contributions. You guys forgot to mention his 8 All-star appearances. Above avg offense + HOF defense should mean he's a no-doubter for Cooperstown if he can keep going for 4 more years. 2500 hits, 400 HRS, 1400 RBIs, and 1100 R is very realistic. Plus the defensive stats. I'd say he's appropriately priced at the moment, but still a little out of my range. I'm buying Freeman and Betts as much as I can. Machado I'm starting to sour on a little. Next year will be key for him.
Yeah Machado needs a big bounce-back season in 2024, coupled with some team success, to get him back on the right track.
Sadly Machado is disliked in some pretty big markets, namely LA and less so in NY since he was an Oriole early on. He's close to his ceiling unless he and the Padres go on a tear the next few years.
I’m onboard for all the freeman and bettts buying!
You’re right about Machado. He’s got to bounce back and get the toasted team into October again.
@@kerouac906oh man, my dodger fan friends HATE Machado. You’re are dead on!
Yup just like the 80’s, panini and topps obliterated the junk wax era with ultra modern trash. So many products, mass production of each product, unbelievable how history just repeats itself
Yep, it really is. Demand spiked in 2020 and Topps hasn’t shut the printers off since!!
Gotta be real careful where we spend our hobby dollars.
Good video, guys
It was definitely missing something this time…
Scott, if Larry walker can make the hall of fame anyone has a shot, he was a good player on a mid franchise.
Mike trout is a great player but always hurt but hits 40+ home runs when he's healthy.
He needs either to win a world series or get traded to win, trout doesn't have the ability to win with the angels.
Totally agree - and I’m thinking maybe he gets set free this winter?? 🤞🏼
Yep - high hopes that he is traded out of Anaheim this winter. Unfortunately that franchise is now many years away from postseason play.
Great seeing this. Thanks
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Some younger guys will hold value if they produce. Acuna being one. Pujols and Betts also shouid hold long term value among others. Also what will hold value I'd bet is sealed wax prior to 2020. Thanks for the discussion.
Agreed! I think I need some sealed 2018 update wax.
Just makes too much sense. M
Thanks for watching!
Well said, Lance.
Is this a typo???
😂😂
1st off Austin is having a terrible season. But Austin was on a trajectory that could easily make the HOF at the time and he still could he is young. 2nd Mookie most likely will make the HOF. But so what? Neither player career stats will come close to the top 30 all time. And go look at Mike Piazza and Jim Thome’s cards. Not every HOFers card is worth much. Once they are retired and out of sight they become out of mind and lose value. Trouts card are dropping big time for good reason. He is not going to even reach 500 HR after 4 straight seasons of injuries and more likely to come. He will fade big time.
"Lies, damn lies and statistics." I'm pretty sure that if we concotef a war for basketball that Wilt would score off the charts. His worst war seasons would likely have been when he was with the lakers when they went 69-13 and won the title. War is too data centric and misses the intangibles that rightly and justifiably factor into qualitative awads like MVP. Reggie had great stats for his career but the Mr. October label is more representative of the reason we remember him far more than other players from that era with comparable or even better career war.
The vast majority of cards will be worthless yes, but you guys already know that. However there are cards that will absolutely have great value from this era. Here is the catch though.... They must be a well-loved player AND generational talent (Must have both qualifiers).
Also the cards MUST be iconic cards !
Example of well-loved generational talents...
-Babe Ruth
-Ted Williams
-Mickey Mantle
-Ken Griffey Jr
-Shohei Ohtani
This is just a sample but you get the point.
From 1976 to 1993 there is very little to collect due to mass production and lack of great product.
EVERY SINGLE Active player today will drop in value by a LOT once they retire. Maybe Lebron but outside of him no Baseball or Football. Anyone holding modern long term as an investment is going to lose their money.
As the influencers become more self consciously aware of how they are perceived they will moderate their messaging or wither and die. As for the breakers being bluntly honest that just doesnt fly. If they dont sell some amount of the crappy product that hurts their distribution of the better product. Here's the thing everyone pretty much catches on to what products hold value and which dont. At that point we have to use our judgementvand self restraint. The breakers who routinel and excessively pressure their audience to participate in lesd than desirable product breaks also eventually go away. It aint that mystifying.
Jeff is out of touch with younger people I can tell if he thinks behind the scene stuff anyone cares about. Trout is like a robot, he has no Charisma for example. Some of player do and some don’t. Doesn’t make a difference. and all you have to do is look at basketball values to realize that.
You need to do bookmarks/timestamps
It'll be interesting to see what cards from today people will care about in 50 years.
Definitely!
We talk about this all the time. It both fascinates and terrifies all of us.
Thanks for watching!
@@SpitballinCardsyes indeed!
Seems to me Nolan Arenado is very similar to Scott Rolen as they were both great defensively and good hitters with better than average power. Granted Arenado will end up with more homers than Rolen and will also end up in the HOF.
Interesting comparison. Arenado will end up with flashier offensive numbers, but Rolen has the Ring!
The value of current players cards retaining value really depends on one thing. Are we currently in a junk wax era? So many great players had their rookie cards in the 80's and 90's and are worth very little. Thing is current cards actually have value. Those from the 80's really never did
80’s cards are tough. So little was actually rare, and what seemed rare then - 84 fleer update, 84 donruss - really isn’t anymore.
Besides the Topps Tiffany sets, the only real value for 80’s cards is in the grades because while it was everywhere, conditions were BAD.
We’re seeing some junk era similarities now - endless printing, dozens of parallels, way too many autos.
We have to sift through the junk for the stuff that could potentially hold value. But some stuff will.
Arenado is not in the same strastosphere as Freddie Freeman
I know at least 2 of us agree with you completely!!
Thanks for watching
This panel is the prospective of three generations of Baseball Card Collectors. If you could add a younger and older point of view and switch out two members where there is overlap to a moderator and chat monitor, then there would be additional depth to the conversation. The highest earning years are 40-60 for most people. These individuals are Buying and Selling based on their memories and experiences. As all the Players mentioned in the discussion age, I don’t see the masses going out a spending money on their cards. Yes, the Value will go up like an inflationary effect - but, it is not a chase. Only speculation on Ultra-Modern will continue despite Sportscards being overproduced since 2017 into the future with Fanatics. The creation of money from Credit favors Markets for the Ultra-Modern. Vintage and Modern collectors benefit from from more money in the Hobby, but Betts, Trout, Freeman, Machado, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Pujols, Henderson or any other Player mentioned won’t really move that much unless they are talked about in the Media daily. The Ohtani, Acuna, Judge, Rutschman, (Gunnar) Henderson, Carrol, Julio Rodriguez, Witt, Harris, Harper or Seager moments based on recency will always be the driver in Baseball cards. The next twenty years will be driven by what happens next…we are just prisoners of the moment. The numbers that Albert Pujols put up were the best since Hank Aaron, but it didn’t resonate with the Ultra-Modern crowd. 🤓⚾️
One of the strangest things about this hobby is how much money goes into potential vs proven.
It seems so absurd but you’re right - it’s not changing. The masses prefer the possibility of the 17 year old minor leaguer vs the proven 30 year old with a decade of MVP votes.
Will it ever change???
Scott. You from Colorado? Me and my 2 sons are trying to set up a trade night in Littleton, CO on the 27th at the columbine library at 4p.m.. we need people to show to have a successful trade night.
Not anymore!
the non RCs will be near worthless
99% for sure. And honestly, a lot of the rookie cards too. There’s just waaay too many printed now. Hard to figure out anything that stands out.
Thanks for watching!
What happened to the braves this year lol
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Thanks, @luckypetercardcollector!
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+++THE 2 DUDES ON THE BOTTOM+++ So cool to see Justin Verlander and Dustin Pedroia taking part in your video. Who knew they were Baseball card collectors. Go figure. Dustin, sorry about the knee bro, I'll spit on Machado next time I see him. Hey Justin, say hi to your wife Kate for me. Tell her we need to see her in another S.I. Swimsuit edition my man. I hear there's a stolen tape floating around the internet but the thought of seeing Verlander's junk kind of creeps me out so I never watched it. I prefer to keep my memories of Verlander with him having one ball in his hand rater then seeing him put his bat in his wives bat doughnut while she has two balls in her hand thank you very much.
Wow. Lots to unpack here.
I definitely prefer to think of Verlander ON THE BASEBALL FIELD.
Thanks for watching!!
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Gold gloves really don't mean much, as it's a more offensive award than a defensive. And the best defensive player at a position will very rarely actually win it
You sound like a fellow fan from the 90’s!
The voting has gotten better, but it’s not perfect. Never will be.
You’re right they don’t mean a lot - especially in terms of card values. But when it comes time for HOF voting, that’s when they get dragged out!
Thanks for watching!
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@SpitballinCards and 80s lol. I just see the arguments daily when someone who's won multiple gold gloves is brought up with a bunch saying how bad defensively they actually were
Quick Answer 99% Yes Mostly Wothless and the funny part is they are worthless now
Freeman and Arenado will both fade into nothing. They shouldn’t make the HOF, they probably both will. The point is they aren’t special.
pitchers should not be on mvp list
Worthless? NO. Worth less? a lot less yes. Many of these players may peter out and the cards become junk. As for modern players, it will be like the junk wax era. You can get a Glavine rookie for under a dollar and he's one of the best, same for a fleer 1989 Griffey Jr. GREAT player, that overproduction RUINED the value. And speaking of junk...
We are in a new junk era. Junk slabs, Junk blasters (Panini) and everything is OVERPRICED for sealed. This hobby has become a lottery. I still buy new boxes and such, but not as much as the last 4 years. Fanatics is a JUGGERNAUT that cannot be stopped until we all stop paying outrageous prices. This includes BREAKERS. They are the main reason product is so expensive. They'll buy 10-100 CASES of a product, while Panini and Fanatics laughs all the way to the bank. Upper deck just looks, shrugs and says oh well. I dislike what the hobby has become when I see kids only caring about what the hit they just pulled will grade at and what its worth. None of these kids will know the joy of collecting their favorite players or teams, only what its worth. We need a huge crash like the 1994 crash to fix this.
No one cares about defense 😂
No modern or vintage will have value a 1958 mickey mantle is worthless now no card has value beyond a day! The card hobby is officially ruined no modern card should go for more than vintage cards period! No player or card has value beyond a day every single game now up down up down no card has value after a day mookie betts mookie betts ppl don't even know who Maris mantle berra is anymore this hobby has gone to pure shyt n no value over a day pay $500 box cards best card you pull worth $5 bunch rich snobbs sitting right here helping ruin it as we speak
Ohtani and Mahomes will be the wisest long holds
I love Ohtani and king teen I think you’re right. He’ll always separate himself from the rest of the league. Let’s just hope he can stay on the field and get to the postseason.