Deep Dive 23/01/2024 - Whats next after Storm Jocelyn - Met Office Weather Forecast
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- Опубліковано 22 січ 2024
- This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 23/01/2024.
After 2 storms in 2 days what comes next for the UK and just how strong will the winds from Storm Jocelyn be?
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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Thanks everyone for watching and for all the comments. I'll be answering questions in here from around 4:30pm and we'll look to do this every week if you like it 😃
Ues please there the only reasons i like tuesday deep dives😊
Will we get T storms soon
Any chance you can do a forecast in Kelvin on April fool's it would be ace.
Thanks Alex, we really appreciate it!
Let us know when you think would be a good time to do this.
These Deep Dives are much worth going on UA-cam every week
Weather warfare with all these storms
One thing I've always wondered: how much effort do you put into checking the accuracy of forecasts AFTER the event? Do you look at comparisons with other country's met services? Are you able to identify strengths/weaknesses of the met office model vs the others? Do you know which kinds of weather formations are more accurately predicted?
I had a similar question. It would be very cool to get some insight into how the recorded weather gets fed back into the development of the models
Pretty decent question that
I used to regularly visit Exeter (and previously Bracknell) to discuss aviation matters with an interest group in the 90s/00s and the MO certainly were aware that their model had strengths and weaknesses compared with others. This wasn't, understandably, shouted from the roof tops in those days but there is a bit more transparency and openness these days and a level of confidence is often stated. Of course the model has improved over the years. An ensemble, combining several models, is often useful and has been used even for tv forecasts where weaknesses of a 'home' model causes some distrust!
And it's not an exact science...
There are model verification stats out there for all the models (can't find them now) but they're around.
Very many thanks indeed Alex for an excellent Deep Dive! I thoroughly enjoyed it, so very interesting and informative with so many questions I needed answers to, you had both! I really enjoyed it all. Thanks so much Alex 😊
Loving the extra detail (and informality) of deep dives! This is the audience for whom you can safely go deeper. Don't be afraid to put the tricky graphs up. I was hoping to see whether the recent return to westerlies will continue for instance. I know you have a chart for that!
Thanks for the feedback, I'll make sure it's in next time, it may make it into the 10 day trend tomorrow - Alex
From a Shropshire point of view currently ( 21:00) Jocelyn seems a fair bit more feisty and gusty than Isha on Sunday 💨💨💨
Agree.😮
Hi I’m Shropshire too 👋🏻just said exactly the same to hubby
In West Midlands same, seems so much stronger through out the night!
Jocelyn was WAY worse where I am
Any chance of including a section on what the weather will be like at night for us astrophotographers?
Good idea - we'll look into it
@@metoffice Yes please - a clear-night-sky outlook would be awesome!
Fantastic idea!
+1 from me!
Count me in as a budding astrophotographer
Alex giving a great deep dive forecast as always.
Allways appreciated from this 80 +. Living in the wilds of Wales during that awful blizzard (1983? or thereabouts) No electricity, no vehicle, no indoor loo, the outside loo housed in a hut was buried in deep snow, Removed buckets of snow from loft )old stone cottage, slates whipped from roof that i repaired later. Do you recall this event. Warned via the shipping day before so we knew what to expect, David
Sorry I missed the chance to get a comment response from Alex. His deep dives are always such high quality events - not just an expert meteorologist but an excellent communicator/teacher. Thanks again.
@metoffice having been a regular viewer of met office on you tube for about a year now, I have to say just how good Alex Deakin you are with both the deep dives and 10 day trends. It is nice for other presenters to have a go, but Alex's are BY FAR the best. They're far more detailed, the drawings are brilliant, you take the time to explain the concepts, and above all you give more personality to the video! The whole video is packed and its great! The others could do with tips from you! KEEP ALEX DEAKIN ON DEEP DIVES! 🤩
Brilliant stuff! I reckon the Met office provdes the best weather service in the world, expecially for the UK,
Here's that blog about how many storms we've had this year blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/01/23/why-have-there-been-so-many-storms-in-the-uk-this-year/
These blogs should also be linked inside the met app, unless i've missed it?
Always good to watch someone fire from the hip, talking about a subject they know about. Well presented, detailed and interesting, well done Met Office.
Hi Alex! even though i live in Belgium, i love watching the deepdives and learning everything about the weather. Great content as always!
This is bloody informative. For once, I've been able to establish what the weather is likely to be later in this week for a ferry trip abroad. Plus, I know a lot more now about the science of our weather than I did half an hour earlier at the start of the video. Thank you.
I love watching your deep dives. Obviously I grew upon the weather forecasts on the BBC and then your more in depth coverage on other channels. But only now with UA-cam type channels can you run long & communicate the depth of the knowledge. Btw do you remember when Michael Fish spoke about a viewer who had rung in about a storm warning and Michael said it wasn't going to happen & it did. I remember hearing that storm warning, so I wasn't surprised when I drove into London from Kent. Sure there were trees down, but London was being London & coping fine.
If you have read this far can I suggest going watching Xionanyc an American Tourist in Naples Italy. He speaks no Italian but he does speak Neopolitan! And in this how despite being a Jewish American also speaks Mandarin (& Cantonese & Funhoutso) English & of course Welsh!
Watching Xiomancy reminds me so much why I liked being Europe, this massive cultural diversity I had access to. Xiomancy is really inspiring, so much so, that round here almost everybody speaks Portuguese - so I am thinking I need to learn Portuguese to fit ob😢 and listen to the gos.
Have a great night wherever you
I'm waiting for someone to name a storm Batman. If it hit in the evening, it would be a dark night.
😂
You might have to settle for Bruce, but that would still work, right?
Excellent update - thank you. It's interesting to understand the macro picture (Pacific => North America => jet stream => Europe), and I also like the comments on how specific geography (eg, the Pennines) affects the weather in those areas. Perhaps include more of this, looking at different parts of the UK each time?
Hi, one thing I noticed with Isha, was the sting in her tail for mid to southern England. A squall line came through at around 2.45am and dropped as much rain in around 15 minutes as the main front did. Plus, the wind gusts intensified rapidly. I felt sorry for my greenhouse as it had already lost three panels earlier in the evening!
I can't wait until we get something than wind and rain.. hopefully march April time bring some dry warm weather like it has done over the years.
Yea that'd be nice - Alex
I remember my father (who worked at Folkestone harbour) saying the anemometer there was stuck on 100 knots for about 20 mins during the great storm of 1987 (not just gusts).
Just a simple "Thank you".
These deep dives are an amazing material to watch every week, especially for the weather geeks! :) Greetings from Dubrovnik, Croatia!
Hey Dubrovnik, my parents went to Croatia back you were part of Yugoslavia & after as am independent country & told me I has to go. That the vulture oops Culture & landscape were gorgeous but the food would blow my mind!!
Love the deep dives. I'm a glider pilot so "wave" is very important to us in winter. Managed fly to 19,000' in a fairly standard glider a few weeks ago in wave with climb rates of up to 1000' per minute. Would be great to see an even deeper dive about wave (lenticulars, down slope gusts, forward breaking wave, Fohn gaps, frontal wave, etc). Keep up the great work.
Really enjoy your presenting Alex, the energetic delivery is very engaging! A lot of interesting knowledge and info put across in a casual and informal tone. Big thumbs up 👍👍👍
Totally agree!
LOVE these vids and the 10 dayers. Been waiting for years on the meteorological and climatological science to be presented so well, and not dumbed down for the masses. Keep up the fabulous work, it's appreciated hugely.
Alex
Your presentation is of the highest calibre
And your explanation is excellent
Ye guys are 💯 % accurate everytime a big 10 / 4
To you all
Deep dive is excellent as always
@metoffice A suggestion I also have is to focus deep dives onto teaching more about weather processes, can be linked to current situation, but recently some deep dives have turned more into a mid- range forecast like the 10 day trends. Thats why Alex D is good on deep dives because we get that explanation about weather processes that an ordinary forecast wouldnt do! With the other presenters there could do with more differentiation between the 10 day trend and deep dives.
Could we see a possible beast from the east or a significant cold speel with snow. I also hope for dryer weather to help farmers get spring crops in the ground so they at least have something to harvest next July - August
I totally agree all this mild not great rid off colds or help birds wild live exter only 2 weeks last cold spell didn't last long did it no snow in the south ithra
Qwerty
Thoroughly look forward to these every week. Kept them coming, well presented
Alex I loved this deep dive! thank you so much for your time and explaining it to us!
Just a thought: to help viewers identify the nature of a weather warning (whether yellow, amber or red), it would be really helpful if within the area highlighted there was a large, clear symbol depicting the nature of the warning: eg cloud with rain drops, a wind-sock, or a snowflake crystal. This would be doubly helpful for people with visual / reading difficulties.
Well said. The current system, with overlapping warnings that can be difficult to separate is one of the few weak-points on the Met Office presentation of their info.
So you have the met office app, those things are on the map, with the different colours and what the weather is like, rain, wind, snow etc etc, I know it’s not the same situation as the is one but the app does show those bits
Regards feom Eastbourne
Yes, it does, but when you have two or more overlapping warnings, with different warning type, slightly different boundaries, different period of cover and different severity, it can be impossible to click on the map and get the text for each of the warnings to come up separately. In this situation, the only recourse is to the full text portion of the website. The version available on the Met Office Hazard Manager is much better and could be rolled out for public access. @@davedebang-bang6168
I've gone through weather every day of every year since 1956. I wonder what storm Kathleen will bring. Thanks Alex for the Deep Dive, it fascinates me, and helps me plan for going out over the next few days.Big thumbs up!
Alex is great! , and the Met Office is the best national weather service in the world ! ( I might be biased because my Grandad worked for them.) 😂
Keep the bias coming! Thanks - Alex
@@metoffice 32:12
Great Deep Dive as always Alex. Great explanation of the lee gusts and the term which I read about years ago called orographic rainfall. Think of the lee gusts 💨 in the same way as squeezing a hose forming a kink. To overcome the resistance the water flows harder at the opposite side. This is why locally intense gusts blow in our towns and cities as the winds squeezes through narrow streets and buildings.
As for orographic rainfall air is forced to rise when it reaches a mountain ⛰️range on the windward forming more clouds 🌧️ and rain 🌧️. Then the air sinks on the opposite (leeward) side called the rain shadow.
AC
Awesome stuff Alex 🤓 I hadn’t been aware of these deep dives until stumbling upon today’s. I’ve always been interested in meteorology and I suspect in the contemporary context of climate change and global warming features like this will help us all understand the impacts. It’s also just great to geek out on a bit of weather ❤
Top class. Best meteo channel in the world.
I absolutely love deep dive 😊 I always share the info with family members , I will admit I love anything to do with the weather 😊
I have a smallholding, so knowing the weather is really really useful for planning what work to do when, and to prepare if bad weather is coming. The deep dives are even more useful because of the proper explanaitions about the deeper meterology at work, so instead of being just told the forecast we can learn how the forecast works, gives better understanding when watching the short forecast videos. Keep them coming, id be quite sad if they stopped them now. So useful, thankyou! 😊
Thank you again for taking the time to do these deep dives one of the highlights i look forward to every week
Only a few mins in and I feel so welcome. Your presentation is so positive and soothing, a major contrast to everything I’ve seen today on social media which has made me feel down. Thank you!! Keep it going 😁 Not to mention this was so interesting!
I love Deep Dive. I put it on at bedtime and have to listen again in the morning, but I always learn something new. Thanks Alex and everyone there.
Thank you, Alex, wonderful deep dive as always
Wow, thanks for all the questions - I had a great time trying to answer some. Keep them coming please.
Really appreciate these deep dives! Keep 'em coming!
Love the deep dive 😊
If you could Alex add in to the deep dive the pressure differential. For fishermen and people with certain medical conditions, atmospheric pressure, speed of change and the extent of the high and low are of real use. Could this be added in to the charts 😊😊
I like this Forecast it gives much more info than a Basic Forecast which I find more of interest than the basic and it gives me an idea of what's coming next. !
Amazing content and depth. I love watching these educational episodes ❤ Thanks so much for educating us
Thank you so much beautiful soul for sharing this video with us.
Love and light with gratitude and so it is.
👍💐💖💫🦋🌈🕊🇬🇧🧚
First time for a deep dive, very interesting and well presented thankyou
Fascinating! Thank you - loved this. Please continue.
Definitely a great moment in the week. Deep Dive is 💟 and Alex - you’re a professional.
I enjoy these. Only slight gripe is way too long an intro for my youtube attention span. Would rather diving straight in.
Thanks - noted, was a bit long this week for sure. Alex
Deffo wasnt too lomg :) @@metoffice
Or could you always make the intro the same length so we can fast forward past them?
Thanks for this detailed information Alex.
love the deep dive every tuesday...keep up the good work.
I love the Deep Dives, one of the highlights of my week! Thanks Alex. Could we look at the MJO on an occasion and how the topics can influence our weather? Thank you!
For a future deep dive, it’d be great to know what makes the different computer models vary. Is it just a progression of variability based on chance of certain conditions, or are there standard pre-determined variables programmed each time? That’s a whole new level of geek, but I’ve often wondered what makes the difference from one model to another!
And what is tweaked for the ensemble postage stamps?
Thanks met. Love your channel
Thank you for the deep dive
There’s no way we’ve had 2 dry weeks here in Chesterfield. I’ve never known such wet weather. It’s been virtually non stop since October last year
Love "Art Hour with Alex" (aka the Deep Dive)!! Great and super informative content, as always.
Appreciate the deep dives-thanks Alex!
Love Your program
20:00 Just had some rumbles of thunder in Scourie, NW Sutherland..
Always enjoy these deep dives. Given how good the Met Office is at its forecasts, it's excellent to understand the why in addition to the what is going to happen. Given they're exclusive to UA-cam, it would be great to see 4K HDR uploads and not just 1080. Maybe some day.
Love the Met Office.
Excellent update thanks to you all 😊
Really enjoy these. Thanks for taking the time to put them together.
love your passion,even if it is about weather!
Keir Stormer.
Relaxing ..enjoyed it.
Think you are the best at this always enjoy your presentations ...keep up the great work 😊
You make everything so easy to understand. 👍👍👍👍🇬🇧
Thar was decisively a stormy deep dive.
Lee gusts are now completely clear to me.
Especially the way how they are created.
Thanks.
Can I request some dry weather am sick of this wet and windy weather. Been non stop since July 😭
Ly guys 🥰
Another brilliant video. Always look forward to deep dive day.
@metoffice Finally another suggestion exclusive for UA-cam is to do weekly global weather news, looking at any storms or other interesting weather systems across the globe, to raise awareness of potentially how lucky we are in the UK!
Thank you Alex you always explain things so
Well 👏
love the deep dive, i'm super interested in the met model. i'd love an episode that goes into its inner workings :) the more technical the better
Superb, Thanks!
Hi Alex . Thanks for another , interesting , informative and educational deep dive . I was wondering , are ,Lee gusts the same sort of thing as the foehn effect , but with rain rather than wind ? The deep dive has now become a weekly ,must watch . Thanks again .
Not watch before but finally a weather man mentioned the jet stream, which is always behind our weather. Maybe good to mention it on the TV weather programs.
Thankyou
Coming from the Far East, storm names are very common for many years. Great to see this naming trend in the UK🎉
Alex doing what he does best. Great deep dive! 💯
Thank you, its great fun to do - Alex
Fantastic beep dive Alex. I’m on the Lee side of the Pennine’s so I’m expecting a wild ride tomorrow morning 🫣😂
Thank you ✨very interesting broadcast.
Brilliant videos as usual
Thank you
🎉 absolutely fabulous 👌
Thank you - very interesting as always.
I wish you would mark the isobar lines with the millibar readings (or estimates) or at least a centre dot of the millibar readings for high and low pressure.
Excellent Deep dive as always Alex
Hi Alex and thank you so much for comprehensive and interesting deep dive as always!:) Regarding those storm names, would they all have in common the strength of the wind gusts they would have produced? Probably it is not at all that but wanted to give it a try:) Thanks so much. Cheers Ivan
With our more up to date weather modelling now to the 80s when I did my gcse geography assignment at school. We can now predict the weather patterns better than ever. So too me it feels that’s the weather systems are the same but we just known how they will develop and play out. We had bad storms and winds back in the day.
Does El Nino effect the amount of winter storms we get?
There is a link between El Nino and how unsettled the first half of winter and is. Also it can increase the chances of colder weather in the second half of winter. But there are other global weather patterns at play also.
The amount of rain and wind is because of a warming planet and warming seas. For every 1C the Atlantic warms, you get 7% more rain. The Atlantic is 3C warmer than a decade ago....
@@gamingtonight1526although I think the vast size of the Pacific has more of an impact than the Atlantic, if your theory was true then surely there would have been more Atlantic hurricanes this year started early then fizzled out
GAMINGTONIGHT .. THAT STATEMENT IS UTTER RUBBISH PAL !! GOT ANY EVIDENCE FOR THAT 😂😂😂
Can you please make the link between how the strong El Niño is effecting our weather this winter, the polar vortex is collapsing and we should see plenty more snow in feb/march/April in my opinion, similar to the same El Niño in 2013/14 event where we had major snow and storms, come on guys educate the people properly….love this show just could hold so much more info🙏🏽❤️
Very Nice summation ….. Storm Hans wasn’t so bad 😅 I did take the Blame for that one .. My work is the Outdoors, and out and about in it , I’m learning loads ..
We are getting blasted by the wind down here in Cardiff right now, scary!😱
I live in Co. Donegal, in the north of Ireland. Thanks for the heads up. Time to get the waterproofs on, and get on with it! 👍
We may have had a lack of rain from the 9th but the ground never got a chance to drain off as it froze, the ground was still completely saturated in the SW before the weekend rain came in, always love the deep dives though! 👍