Investment Analyst Reacts to MORE Investing TikToks
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- Опубліковано 28 кві 2022
- We're back at it! Here's my review of more investing TikToks.
My name's Richard Coffin, I'm an investment analyst with my Chartered Financial Analyst and Certified Financial Planner designations, registered with the Ontario Securities Commission as a portfolio manager.
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Video edited by: Carol Boeira & Richard Coffin
DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and is not affiliated with any financial institution, although Richard does work as an employee for an investment manager. Richard Coffin does not provide recommendations on The Plain Bagel - those looking for investment advice should seek out a registered professional. Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers.
What was your favourite TikTok? And is there anything you think is worth adding to the reviews?
Don't get financial advise from people born in 2005.
I'll add that the matched amount of money on the 401(k) basically doubles your return on the percentages. So even if the mutual fund you're invested in only gets 3 percent you're still getting essentially a 6% return on your original investment from the stock market. It's relatively minor compared to the 100% return you pointed out from the company matching though, which is the main benefit. Also it probably doesn't fit in this video but more information about a 401(k) would be helpful. At least just on the tax advantages and disadvantages even if it's relatively simple. Or just a video on different types of retirement accounts in general and how they work and what to look for in deciding to use one.
I really appreciate your videos. A lot of other channels feel like the creator is telling you what to do.
-54% guy has to win, the juxtaposition of the confidence with the outcome and the way you presented it (including the twist at the end) just... brutal
Easily 401k guy...
It was amazing how bad that advice was.
Stock splits do not increase FCF
Rule #1 of finance skepticism: If the method they're selling you worked, they would just use it and become billionaires, and thus not need to sell it to you in the first place.
something i've been thinking on, there's (from barclays) proof that betting on people being impulsive idiots is a sound strategy. so maybe some legitimate groups are selling things that encourage stupidity, so bigger firms can bet around it for profit.
@@svnhddbst8968 That's an interesting idea. If there's one thing you can count on, it's human stupidity 😅
That's true, besides, sharing the method defeats its whole purpose, because once enough people start using the same method, it'll simply no longer work. Actual successful investors and brokers are constantly mixing up their strategies because markets are constantly changing, and knowing which strategies work at a given moment takes a lot of knowledge.
Exactly, if your get rich quick scheme was taking advantage of "hidden" knowledge, then there would be zero incentive for them to show it to anyone else
@@Mincecroft Couldn't have said it better myself
"it's not often you have somebody so aggressively... wrong"
😂👌
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Richard, you don't have to do this to yourself. Self-harm is not the way to go for views.
This isn't self harm. It's bringing rationality into this type of content
LOL legit watching those tik tok was cancer.
You must be new on the internet.
Someone brain 🧠 is smelling
ahahahaha bro wake UP richard is missing out on the investing advice of a lifetime
That return calculation of stock picks was my favorite part of the video.
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😂🤣 Idiots
Yeah, that was amazing
Everyone loves growth stocks in a bull market.
I'd like to report a murder!
I remember my father testing to become a CFA, it took 5 years and that was after his master's in finance/economics. I have the upmost respect for people like you showing us what a real professional is like.
It's phrases like "its part of the human brain to look for cognitive short cuts", that raise this channel up to next level. Thank you, that's how I look on technical analysis
I'm not a TA guy at all but I do think it's not totally ridiculous to think there are some patterns in human behavior as it responds to price movements as well as certain market dynamics that can be gleaned from analyzing charts. Like he says, potentially useful as part of a more balanced approach
Hedge fund manager here. I never start my stock research by analyzing the charts. But, you cannot be naive and say that stocks always stick to their fundamental values. Just like any other market, the stock market is driven by fear, emotion and patterns. I use TA as a tool to help me enter/exit a position and determine a trend in a market price direction. Make no mistake, when stocks go up, on average, more people are willing to buy it. When stocks go down, on average, more people are willing to sell it.
"Technicals in this kind of fashion really are the astrology of finance" 🤣
@@josh7297 Lets be honest - those charts are useless just nice to visualize the price patterns 🤣i never managed a hedge fund so I'll concede if you say otherwise - these are cool patterns but markets movement is completely arbitrary and sitational
@@jdarling5315 I agree with him "Technicals in this kind of fashion really are the astrology of finance" 🤣
How to become a quadrillion dollar company
1) IPO
2) stock split
3) stock price goes up
4) split again
5) price goes up
6) repeat as required
When I was like 8 my friend and I played around with pretending to buy stocks in the newspaper, following them and competing on who made the best pick. I found out years later my dad actually bought some for me. Turns out I made a good pick and he knew that because he worked in finance...
And you probably gained some of his skills via osmosis. Parents don't always realise what a profound effect they have on their children, you played stocks because that's what daddy did. What a wonderful man your dad sounds like. Being a parent is an incredible honour and I hope my kids can say good things about me like you have here some day. I hope you are continuing to do well on the stock market and that your wealth increases.
This series just keeps confirming to me how much I hate ultra-short form content. TikTok, Twitter, even Snapchat to a degree.
0:40 The idea a trillion dollar tech stock could double in value in a couple months...
7:10 That guy is why predatory lending exists. The "pile of nothing" he complains about is a 34.7% risk-free gain even when employer contributions are NOT included.
And it'll be way way more than net 1% growth yearly, it still be more like 3-6% yearly after inflation without contributions
I was planning on having my kids invest fairly young, but just as part of their money management education. No stock pickings just something like a simple ETF with a bit of money so they can kinda see the flucuations and how markets work with their own money, but not as an actual money making thing,
The fact Ricard can make fun of yet intellectually analyze each tiktok simultaneously is mind blowing.
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Its pretty simple when the tiktokers are absolute morons.
The Wii music was fantastic and I love hearing someone else say that technical analysis is the astrology of investing. I also appreciate anything that calls out the "influencer" starter kit of talking up your wealth and selling courses. This scam pre-dates the internet it just seems to have become even more popular in the last few years.
The internet has just given all these scam artists free access to millions of gullible people who fall for get rich quick scams.
8:55 - That employer matching is key. That alone is enough to compensate for, like, 40 years worth of inflation (assuming an annualized 2% rate).
At worst it's a 50%-100% return on your investment, even if the stock averages 0% with inflation. Considering these mutual funds tend to average more like 5% even with bad inflation, it's just a no brainer.
Honestly, the only reason I can think of not to max out your 401k is if you have a specific plan for that money. You're going to start a business or buy property or something like that. Otherwise a 401k is one of the best investments you can possibly make.
@Jeff Wells It isn't as simple as you make it out to be. I'm not American so I don't fully understand how the 401k system works, what are the returns of the funds etc, but I know the effective growth rate of a fund (after the fees etc) is extremely important.
Here's the math: If we invest 10,000 a year through 401k on funds that have an average return of 5% a year after fees (as you suggested), and the employer matches it making it effectively 20k a year, we have 1,48 million after 30 years. If we instead invest it in a low-fee index fund that has an effective growth rate of 10% a year (the historical growth rate of the US stock market) we have 1,7 million after the same time period, a difference of almost 20%.
If we adjust for inflation, assuming inflation averages at 2% annually making the actual growth of the funds 3% and 8% respectively, the 401k has us at 1.02 million and the index fund at 1.32 million (today's dollar equivalent), a difference of 30%
I'm not saying the 401k is bad, as I don't know the actual rates of growth of the funds, this was just a hypothetical example of how investing on your 401k can be worse than just investing in an index depending on the rate of return for the two. You have to know the specifics to make the decision
Of course 401k also has the advantage that the "carrot" of the employer matching your investment will make people that would normally be less likely to invest start investing
@@exantiuse497 That's why people should max out their IRAs and HSAs first. They can add cheap index funds to them. First step would be to contribute to the match on the 401k, next max out the IRA/HSA, and then continue contributing to the 401k.
@@exantiuse497 What matters here isn't the growth rate of the fund (that's important, but it's not the most important thing here). What matters is the employer matching.
Most 401k's have employer fund matching, typically up to 6%, because employers get a tax break for doing this (and it stops at 6%, which is why they stop there).
A really good matching scheme is 1 for 1, that is, if I make $50k a year, and I put in 6% of my paycheck (pre-tax), or $3k, into my 401k, my employer also puts $3k into my 401k.
That's an instant 100% return of my money. That's worth almost 10 years of returns at 10%, and you get it instantly. Even if the fund is garbage (they aren't, they are typically well established mutual funds that return 5-10% depending on how aggressive you choose to go with your fund options).
More typically employers do a 2 to 1 match instead of a 1 to 1 match. That is if I put in 6% of my paycheck into a 401k, my employer will put in 3%. So to get the full employer match I need to put in 12% ($6k) to get the full 6%($3k). Still, that gets you an instant 50% return on your investment no matter how good or bad the fund is (and again, they're typically pretty decent).
Again, that's 5 years worth of market returns instantly. That's freaking huge. And these funds aren't garbage. They are safe, well established long term investments that are perfect for long-term retirement investing.
2%Inflation lmao that's cute
I'm in my 3rd year at the University of FinTok, and I now exclusively use technical analysis on real estate NFTs on my laptop in my Lamborghini.
😂
nice i would like to buy a course from you i hope its expensive enough to feel like i made a important investment in my education
You forget to tell everyone how you were a multi-billionaire by the age of 12. I guess you are just modest about this kind of thing....
@@davidwebb2318 I'll learn how to do that next semester. Sorry!
@@JackDuffley Ha ha, yes. Remember to ask your college principal if you can have a parking space for the Lamborghini !!
I still rewatch this from time to time just to watch his reaction to the 5:10 clip
“Technicals - the astrology of investing…” absolutely, been saying that for years! As always… nice work.
How can it be astrology, how can you call BS, when there are millions of people funneling billions of dollars into different equities or currencies based on patterns and support an resistance levels. If 50,000 people see something bouncing at support, and they all buy because buy at support sell at resistance, then it is going to rise. It’s a positive feedback loop. It’s real. Nobody cares about your recycled EBITDA multiples and they don’t affect anything anymore.
😂😂😂😂😂😂
I would want to point out that unlike astrology and coin-flipping, because a lot of people believe in technical analysis, it results in a self-fulfilling prophecy such that if a lot of people are making a decision that the price is going up, they'll bid up the price, eventually increasing the price itself. Of course, the catch is that different people would see different patterns within the same chart, so it becomes a tug of war between those who thinks that the price would go up versus the price going down.
And then there's the market makers who would profit either way from market participation. As an old adage says, don't go and dig for gold yourself, go sell shovels instead.
Another problem is that algorithmic traders probably already beat you to the punch and the analysis is now priced in
If this were the case the research would back that point, but it doesn't. The truth is there are too many market participants with many different strategies, AUM sizes, and opinions which create little market inefficiencies or random behaviour in stock prices. Even algorithmic traders don't, they mostly exploit small market inefficiencies faster than others such as HFT's, mean reversion, scalping, market making, arbitrage, etc. It would be self-fulfilling if the few who did it held enough weight to move markets, but then they wouldn't have the liquidity to trade it comfortably, which is a paradox.
That's how it works. Applies to chinese astrology as well because a lot of people who believe in it (wealthy old chinese) impact the global economy.
"Technicals (as a primary tool) are the astrology of finance"
Also, so silly to watch how those "traders" prove their patterns on the historical data.
But how is it possible than that some traders who rely only on technical analysis manage to be profitable
@@maurods3151 Do they? I suppose their money comes from selling courses on their "methods" or not relying on technical analysis only
@@hardwarefromthegarbage3446 because it is statistically unlikely that they would all fail. Just like the people who win the jackpot twice in the lottery it is simply luck. It is likely, that out of the thousands of active traders that some will get lucky and beat the market. The problem is that there is no way of knowing beforehand which ones will get lucky.
@@maurods3151 The short answer is that 99% of them don't manage to be profitable. Even a random stock selection process will make money sometimes. As they reinvest everything in what is essentially a random process eventually they will have everything in investments that drops like a stone. They might be successful for 5, 10 or 15 years by pure luck. The problem comes when you decide to follow what they do on the last day of year 15 and year 16 is when their luck runs out, and you lose your life savings following their astrology charts.
@@maurods3151 key word, some. 99% wont.
The only way all these "gurus" on social media make money is by selling people their awful advice.
With the Raging Bull that was some of the key evidence in the FBI's fraud allegations...
The name Greg Secker comes to mind....
My absolute favorite part was watching his reaction to the “don’t match your 401K” insanity. I still can’t stop laughing! Thanks for this amazing video (from a fellow Canadian 🇨🇦)! 😀
Well, in 2020 I didn't contribute anything to retirement and put every dollar instead into about 270% returns. That was obviously a non-recurrent and extraordinary condition
@@rodrigorodriguez509 orrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.................Just repeat this one simple trick over and over again and you'll be rich!
The other crazy thing I see now is reasons not to invest into a Roth IRA. I don’t understand how it’s not illegal to spread misinformation about this
"Don't invest into a 401k or a Roth IRA......Instead, BUY my course and I'll make you millions." - Every one of those videos against 401ks lmfao
I’d probably want to invest in my 401k as much as the company will match, but not anymore than that.
I love the humour in the editing of the individual stock lookups. The music, the facial expressions, the groans.Magnifique!
more level headed, sensible content from The Plain Bagel. Always great stuff!
I would absolutely LOVE if you went through one of these courses from tik tok. I think it would be amazing if you could "learn" from these "finance experts"
this channel sometimes does something similar, but is more memeish and less serious than "the plain bagel", here's an example: ua-cam.com/video/iFBoOGMjxI0/v-deo.html
Yep. I'd be up for that
A 100% 401k match is so powerful that you could immediately withdraw your money and the match, pay the penalty and taxes and still be ahead lol
You can withdraw from 401k early for 10% fee + tax, meaning if you don't want to wait till retirement you still get an immediate 80% return from 401k matching
Its a rip off. The guy in the video had a point. Outside of the employer match there is little point in investing further into a 401k other than the pre-tax investment benefit. Today's billionaires didn't earn their wealth through a 401k. This is the part that most academics like our friend the plain bagle conveniently ignore. In all reality, 401ks are designed for financially illiterate people.
@@MrSupernova111 billionaires worked very hard took on a lot of risk, had a lot of skill and got very lucky for their wealth, 401k is very easy, its not for people who want to become billionaires its for people who want to retire when they're old. Maybe Roth IRA is better though who knows. Its not financially illiterate not to want to be an entrepreneur
@@RemotHuman . You're 100% correct that being a business owner is riskier than saving pennies every month for decades on end. That said, we choose how we want to live and many don't want to wait until they-re 65-70 years old to enjoy financial independence. On one hand we have the billionaires of the world and the countless millionaires who took a chance and then we have the masses who will spend their lifetime in the office doing meaningless work hoping to be financially independent at 65-70 years old. As I said, the guy in the video isn't entirely wrong.
@@MrSupernova111 Yikes
You're one of my top channels and I appreciate the information that you give. Keep calling out the fakes!
I will never cease to be amazed at how many bad and/or tone-deaf investment videos there are on Tiktok. Very entertaining.
I don't know what you mean, clearly this high schooler has discovered a vulnerability in the financial markets as they exist today
That comparison from TA to Astrology was hilarious, and so true. In my ignorance, a few months back, I did think there was something to it. And quickly after I realized it was just BS. The only way that TA was real is if EVERYONE follows and acts on those patterns. And that is simply not true. The market doesn't behave based on a few guys doing TA
I love how Richard has perfected the nervous laugh. It cracks me up every time.
I'm so glad I discovered your channel. You are great, keep it up!
I'm a big fan of your informed common sense approach AND you are my favorite UA-cam personality. I know you won't let that go to your head.
Really enjoy "not to gate keep, just to set expectations." I'm going to borrow that, thank you.
Your react videos ARE SO ENTERTAINING and INFORMATIVE. Keep them coming! Thank you :) :)
That first guy was so convincing because of his wild hand gestures
Great job as always, Richard. From one accountant to another, keep up the fight
I love the background! It's silly but i will never get bored of bad finance tik tok reviews
I loved the advice (even if it was a little under-sold) for young people looking to get into investing. If you want to get good investing results... just get a higher education. You're making an investment in every future choice you make, and the earlier you commit to that the more help it will be. Also, your education won't disappear if the economy crashes.
"stocks that are going to make me rich"
The guy forgot to say "by shorting them".
You have got to do more of these!
First time viewer! Love your content! Keep it coming.
Here comes Richard making my Friday even better with some TikTok reactions LET'S GO
This is my favorite financial channel!
You are great dude! Thanks for your videos. Liked, Subscribed and all the good stuff!
"There's more pizza now that I cut this 4 slice pizza into 8 slices"
First guy probably
Your content is so thought provoking! 👍
Congrats on the new background thing I love it!!!
Always love your videos man! Fellow Canadian!!!
Great video! Thank you for producing. I really enjoyed the theme music from the Wii Shop! Takes me back.
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You're a breath of fresh air on this platform.
Loved the editing on this one, haha!
The only channel worth listerning to. Thank bro.
I need more of this in my life!
I didn't really learning anything new in terms of investing, but I got a good laugh from the TikTok clips.
Love this videos, Richard!
I love these videos, do more like this please
Hi Mr Bagel I have a question
Do you ever use modern portfolio theory in your day to day activities as a portfolio manager? Things like Treynor Black procedure, Markowitz, risk aversion coefficient, optimal weights, etc.? Or do you use other things? I've been learning this stuff for school but it all seems too theoretical for me.
Thanks!
Great video as always!
2:33 There have been some studies on stock splits that have shown there to be some degree of excess returns associated them (Ikenberry, Rakine, and Stice in the mid-90's I think were some of the first to look into this phenomenon). Some explanations offered by authors of these papers suggest its based on a signaling (i.e., management expects strong fundamental performance and completing a stock split signals this to the market). I would intuit that it's related to the momentum factor (i.e., a stock that now has a high per-share price got that way through strong recent performance). Either way, there is at least some evidence that buying recent stock splits might have some plausibility, but whether those excess returns survive transaction costs is another story.
5:30 This video came out too early $TSLA
This channel is so amazing. Amusing and educational
These videos are hilarious 😂, please make more🙏🏽
Your calm and realistic approach contrasted with those absolutely insane, horrible advice is really entertaining for me.
"the astrology of finance" that's the best thing I've ever heard
Background looks great!
"If you need help you can reach out to a professional."
That is exactly what I want to tell you, Richard. You don't have to hurt yourself by watching these for our entertainment.
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It would be nice to see a video on how you would research a company before deciding to invest? What are some of the things that you look for?
"Aggresively wrong" nice, I learnt a new phrase
Love your vids Bagel men
i loved this video and i love your patient explanations for why these people are wrong, and your jokes are really on point. that said, the shot of the guy putting on the guy fawkes mask was funnier than anything you could have said
I didn’t see your poll. I would have clicked yes!
Great new setup!
I've seen that hyper aggressive anti 401k dude before... And I think his idea is that if you take your full paycheck and use it immediately for your own education, or starting your own business then you can "easially" outperform the market.
As someone who has started and stopped 3 personal small businesses... Yeah... There is also a super good chance to loose your entire business or if you are lucky break even. It's a bit of a gamble.
Compare that to a 401k that gives an instant 100% growth with an employer match, and lowering your income tax bracket, and no taxes on growth... Yeah... Even at 1% growth that starts to look pretty OK lol. And that you are more likely to net 7% growth after inflation makes your 401k look pretty awesome.
More important is that for most people it isn't an either/or situation. You can hold down a day job and take advantage of a 401k match, and start something productive on the side. And that side thing can be a business, or developing IP for royalties, or any number of other things.
@@lukemorgan6166 how are they scams?
This. Best education today is free
The one of the stocks that will make me rich had me rolling on the floor, I knew I was in for a treat when roku was his first pick😂😂
Fantastic content!
TA is the astrology of finance, perfect description.
Great Information..better Channel
@4:33 Great movie called Pi, where a man supposedly figures out the pattern and then a decent into madness.
Time for part 4!
4:10 completely agree. It is a good use case for trying to time into a stock better for a long term investment (maybe wait a bit more for a price retreat) but not for actively trading
What you described is active management. Thinking that your intensity of active management is good but anything more is bad is irrational
the cowboy hat sign is really nice!
Damn plain bagle doing tik tok investing vids, DR.K doing psychology tik tok vids, guess friday is tik tok review day, cheers :D
The title format is the same too haha. Suspicious :D
Primeagen released a video doing programming TikTok reviews today too 😆
Do more tiktok reactions, I love this
"Technicals in this kind of fashion really are the astrology of finance" 🤣🤣🤣 as someone who has my series 7 stock brokers license this is so accurate and hilarious - Never truly understood how these made any sense to trust 🤣
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Thanks for the financial guidance, Richard. Go get those Tiktokers!
Imagine going to Tiktok for finance advice. Or any advice on anything for that matter.
MORE OF THESE PLEASE!!!
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That 401k TikTok KILLED me. I can't believe that guy said those things so confidently.
Is he wrong? Which billionaires do you know that built their wealth through a 401k? Think about that for a minute. Know that I have a degree in finance and work in the industry before you reply.
@@MrSupernova111 Still time to delete this.
@@jonathans7089 . Every business owner has taken a different path than relying on a 401k for financial independence but continue walking through life blind. Remember your clueless comment when you're 65-70 years old and you have wasted your life doing meaningless work to make other people rich.
@@MrSupernova111 Tried to help you from embarrassing yourself. You just don't actually know what you're talking about.
@@jonathans7089 . With such a strong and cohesive argument how could anyone disagree? In a small world like yours there is only one way to live life. Typical fool!
It was more than just a lackluster "sure" from me. I just liked the video before even watching the full video through. I just look forward to these segments so much LOL.
LOVE THIS
This might be your funniest content ever! Good stuff!!!
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Trivial, but it's good to have. Thanks for the vid.
Thanks for this. I know some of them go full Loco but I can't refute them in a more systematic way.
Hey that guy that made those calls at the TOP is a good counter signal. 😂
Love to see more
I like those reviewes :). They are funny.
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401ks also have access to ETFs and the one I had access to, it also had SPDR ETFs including: The S and P 500.
That guy is probably just one of these 'make your own business' or 'buy real estate' course making people.
Keep loving these videos man. Please keep it up
Kind regards
Love your content Richard. I’d love a video on discord stock groups and your thoughts on those.
As someone who got my series 7 I can confirm all the info in this video is accurate, wellll explained and useful
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this series is the best
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Leave a msg to the contact above☝️⤴️🔝👆Thanks for your feedback, I have something I'd love to introduce you to
Leave a msg to the contact above☝️⤴️🔝👆Thanks for your feedback, I have something I'd love to introduce you to
Leave a msg to the contact above☝️⤴️🔝