@@rafavaliente741 In all fairness, this isn't quite true, they're just different. Ramin focuses on economy and investing whilst Martin Lewis is more personal finance focused.
I've read the FT, the Economist and other broadsheets this week, as I've tried to make sense of what has happened. This video blows them all out the water. This is first class content, independent thought and research. I love the variety of sources you pull from and the conclusions you draw from analysis.
This video is super well made, I tried understanding bonds, their yields and effect on the market recently. This video really brings it all together. Thank you so much!
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy. The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings.
@@chrisbluebird5037 that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you?
A great explanation of the effects of the mini budget. I feel the government have made a monumental mistake with the energy price cap and should have had something more like a fixed rebate on householder fuel costs to target fuel poverty rather than bail out millionaires heating their mansions. Stagflation coming!
This could be the end of this government. How can the Tories have confidence in this debacle? Rumblings must be heard even at this early stage, in constituencies across the nation. The deal on the energy has been signed, it's binding on successors. No doubt it could be unwound at great expense, but the short- term thinking is breathtaking.
The energy price guarantee could be very tricky. The messaging needs to be very precise. Otherwise it can easily spin out of control for the UK economy putting far more pressure on the Pound. In the short term, I would not be surprised if the Pound would slide to $0.80 before recovering.
I agree with all you have said. The message needs to be very precise or it can easily spin out of control. What I mean is stating that Asia enters into price competion with the European Union and mentioning that internal bussiness will instead hoard cash is better left unsaid. Because what he has done is alert Asia and British business what can be done to damage British FINANCIAL MARKETS EXTERNALLY AND INTERNALLY..
thanks Ramin, this is the best content you put on UA-cam. I am glad you've been doing this for a while and I hope you will keep the news commentary coming in the future!
Thanks as ever for your very helpful remarks Ramin. However, I think you meant to say the BoE were dovish, not hawkish - the markets were definitely expecting firm intent to raise interest rates quickly and I think they got anything but that.
@@JohninRosc I think it was because she has made a lot of them much richer over night, they have been shorting the pound. And she's scrapping the 45% tax rate for people on more than £150000 gross per annum
@@fredatlas4396 she only told a select handful what the budget would contain (allegedly) - they chose her before they knew she’d make them rich. There must be something surely that they disliked most about Sunak - or is it a pigment of my imagination?
@@JohninRoscwhat do you mean? They have been choosing the worst candidate for the last 5 years. We went from Cameron to May then Johnson and now Truss...
Outstanding review of the situation and the consequences; whether UK equities are a good bet is a different issue. It is hard to see how the Tory party can survive unless they abandon Truss; listening to her this morning, she would not confirm that there would not be spending cuts or failure to keep benefits in line with inflation. Vague references to focus on outcomes as opposed to inputs?? Another NHS review - just as we go into winter?? The next few weeks will be very interesting!
Isn't the truth of this problem is that it has been building for 25 years. the fed, bank of england, the ECB monetising excessive government spending, keeping interest rates artificially low for years, creating economies addicted to low interest rates (Like a drug addicted economy) etc. Like the bond market bailout was a result of risky strategies due to artificially low interest rates? All of that combined with the fact the UK is not energy self-sufficient, this along with the inflation issues has exacerbated everything? And then politicians and central bankers will not take the blame for anything, its never their fault, its an act of god?
I don't understand why the price of UK Gilts goes down when they yield higher interest. Surely something that gives a higher rate of return is worth more?
Why, what's it got to do with Vanguard. The Vanguard target date retirement funds strategies are in line with a lot of similar retirement funds. Nobody has a crystal ball, and if I did I would already be more than set to retire in comfort
When you say at the end 'UK equity is looking like a bargain right now', is that for overseas purchasers due to Pound weakness or all purchasers, including those in the UK, due to valuations being at 'bargain' levels? I'm guessing the former?
@@mikemike5973 I disagree, I think it's both. And it's really only dollar holders (who don't have to be yanks), Euro and Yen holders are basically in the same position as GBP holders: but I think GBP will rebound much more quickly because the source of the GBP drop is basically a temper tantrum.
@@edwardkenworthy7013 well you can't really disagree as its a fact that for dollar holders UK ftse represents better value. On a Cape ratio basis I'm sure the ftse would be better value than US major markets but haven't checked recently but it has had dismal performance in recent years basically going nowhere
There are no income tax cuts in Scotland, isn’t that figure wrong at 16:38? I see the note below the figure, but I think Scotland have made the decision to keep current rates. Great video though, thank you 😊
The government has only capped the unit rate of a flexible tariff - NOT capped the max you will have to pay regardless how much energy you use….if you use more energy you pay more.
One part of the analysis I disagree strongly on: The markets didn't dislike the BOE's tweet because it was "hawkish", they disliked it because they were hoping/expecting an emergency rate rise of 1% or more and Andrew Bailey ruled it out. He's the most dovish BOE Governer ever, an utter disgrace who has not even attempted to fulfill his remit of limiting inflation, and the statement "we won't hesitate to act" when followed by the unspoken "at our next meeting in NOVEMBER" is an absolute joke, to be quite honest.
BOE do not care about the value of the Sterling, Bailey is talking to Kwasi twice a week, it is all coordinated. If they raise the rates too much and too fast the housing market will collapse and the banks will follow. The UK is f....d. As FT article states today: The UK has confused itself with the States...huge mistake.
I have the Acc version of vgov and I was expecting it to give some stability, down side protection to my portfolio. I guess the only upside might be when I come to rebalance, as if the gilts are stil way down or even further down I will be buying gilts at a much lower price point. Which I hope will then produce better returns in the future
I can understand why new mortgages are applied at the current interest rate. But why do existing loans increase too? That deal is done, the bank borrowed the money at 1% and sold it to me at 2%. Why do existing loans get affected (mortgages)….
Increasing money in the economy increases inflation which leads to higher interest rates. The budget did not encourage industry to invest - when the cost of borrowing is up!!
Only have to look at the awful year to date performance of UK gilts and compare them to EM Local Currency Bonds (these have performed far better than UK gilts this year) to realise that there is something very, very wrong with the economics of the UK these days.
Nah. That's just what the "liberal" "elite" want you to believe: the state of the UK economy isn't great but it's better than many, EU and USA. But then they're led by idiot "liberal" "elite" mouth breathers. The UK at least is starting to climb its way out of the enormous hole that the idiots leading us for the last 20 years dug.
What about the solvency of the BoE? Their bond assets must have been destroyed over the last few months and they also pay an overnight rate on the gilts!
There's obviously a lot of doom and gloom at the moment - from an investment stand point I'd love to see some videos on good investments to make in this bear market. Energy has probably already done its biggest run. Should we just be shorting?
ramin can you make a video about the british pound and wherher it will go to zero.....what does this mean for the normal person living in the uk in terms of day to day living
My pension provider actually increased UK gilt exposure in July which flabbergasted me at the time as clearly UK yields had much further to rise than were already priced in, even before the shenigans of the latest airheads in Downing St.
Thanks for another timely update. Just wondering if mortgage rates rise and it puts pressure on the housing market, what would happen to the rental market? Would first-time buyers be better off to rent for longer, or the house price drop could offer a good entry point?
I have been delaying getting solar panels and battery fitted but due to increasing interest rates, inflation at an all time high…I’ve decided to go ahead and get solar installed taking advantage of 11 year interest free government loan of £11k (Monthly payment of £77) ….is it correct to assume due to interest free rate…my loan is a no brainier as the value of the loan will actually decrease due to high inflation?
The UK banks and economy is better position than Germany, France and Italy. If the BOE hold firm the pound will rise up steadily back to $1.20. In 2020 the U.K. financial industry was worried that the pound would bounce up to over $1.60 or worse.
Yeah and the EU/Euro has so many countries tied up together. Italy is a ticking time bomb for them. 10x the debt of greece.... If they go, the money will have run out, theres only so much propping up the german taxpayer can do. I get what the EU/Euro was trying to accomplish, but i think in the end it will fail
Thanks Ramin, great video at confusing times. What I'd like to know is how to maximize extra bits of cash, now we won't be investing in US currency as much. Invest in FTSE100? Pay off mortgage? Keep buying global index funds?
This is irony, right? Physical gold 'in pounds' rather than 'linked to the pound' is only doing ok because the pound is tanking! Why didn't you get it 'linked to the Zimbabwe dollar'? Then it would be doing amazing!
I think you are too positive about it. The whole thing was a disaster and I wouldn't be surprised if they take it back altogether or we soon will have general elections.
because of all the unbacked debt used for the uk housing boom is causing rapid inflation, the uk cannot raise rates. so it can only deflate the currency worth. your pensions are to be sacrificed to inflation.
Hi Ramin, thanks for another great video. Would you be able to comment on what factors would make bond funds such as VGOV to rebound from the current lows? Do you think the current 40% slide of VGOV is already pricing in the interest rate rise to the level of 6%?
Ma I thought if we get a recession that could cause the UK gilts to go back up in value, as they will surely have to put interest rates back down again if we enter a recession.
@@fredatlas4396 thanks for your comment. If Bank of England followed the approach of fed then I guess they would only reduce interest rates if there is a recession and they are confident that inflation is under control. I worry that hitting a recession may not be enough for boe to reduce rates.
They are pulling in different directions. Bailey should have increased interest rates earlier. Now his hand has been forced and the interest rate increase is a bit of a shock. Hopefully France will get their nuclear plants back in service soon.
Dollar will always be strong that’s when it’s the reserve currency of the world. Everything is priced in dollars. Gov’t need to stop QE, raise interest rates to head inflation off over the longer term. Kicking the ‘can’ down the road isn’t an option. Bonds down, housing down, stocks down. Only save haven gold and silver?
UK is following Sri Lanka and Greece footsteps to bankruptcy. High government spending = increase government debt. Lower tax = reduce government income. When both policies are implement, it is the first step to bankruptcy. The currency will lose its value and UK will default on its debt.
I'm not from the UK/Britian (why the two names?) but it seems that cutting taxes while you increase borrowing is hypocritical. It seems that all governments in the western world just cannot get spending in line with income. It's been this way for decades now and I think we are just living on fumes at this point. Wide-spread prosperity is over, the fat lady just needs to sing. I just don't see how governments can keep borrowing to bail-out every mishap that comes along. At some point surely the structure has to teeter and collapse, yes?
@@edwardkenworthy7013 Thanks Edward for the info re: Britian / UK, I did not know that. I guess I'm stunned by the ineptitude of government. Here in Canada they have literally screwed up everything over the last 30 or 40 years (i.e. the health care system is now a total mess with no way to get any private health care). What do we have to show for it? A huge deficit. They cannot solve problems, only compound them. "Keep kicking the can down the road and bury your head in the sand" should be their motto. It's Kafkaesque. In today's paper there is an article about Ukraine asking Canada to handle war crimes tribunals there. I have absolutely no confidence that they will do anything but botch that project after having spent hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. It seems to be the same all over the western world.
Sorry Raminibut you do not understand how a currency issuing government works. MMT and Steve Keens new book clearly show that Spending by government comes first. Then tax removes money from the economy. Therefore tax DOES NOT fund spending. Study modern monetary theory. Consider double entry book keeping, as shown, by Steev Keen. Selling gilts by the government is optional and simply avoids the Treasury account at the BoE from going into overdraft. Anyway banks use reserves to buy government bonds and the banks reserves come from the BoE. OK that's a bit simplified but in essence shows that all government spending is self financed. Very disappointed you are regurgitating discredited economic views.
Encouraging wealth makers so that there is tax money to support those in genuine need is not foolish. Despite Corbyn and Johnson and Sunak's delusion, there is no magic money tree: someone has to earn it.
Reopen our coal fields and let's get producing our own goods . We (the UK) have been on a downward spiral ever since Manufacturing was moved to india and chaina when thatcher came to power. We need to step back to move forward, but not with the WEF running our governments.
Hi @Uk Dental Exam I'm not a financial advisor but I do coach clients one-to-one. You can find out more about this on my website here www.pensioncraft.com/investor-education/coaching/ Thanks Ramin
The solution forward i see is stop the welfare cheques, Social security cheques, make Education and Healthcare completely free and wait 10 yrs for the economy to reach the top. Energy solution like mini nuclear reactors are not arriving till 2030.
This guy is one of the only intelligent commentators on finance on the net.
Martin Lewis is definitely a name that has a lot of respect too.
@@cooper8t Ramin is like 1000 levels above him mate =) , is like a Padawan vs a Jedi Master
@@rafavaliente741 In all fairness, this isn't quite true, they're just different. Ramin focuses on economy and investing whilst Martin Lewis is more personal finance focused.
@@cooper8t yes you are right they have very distinctive focus
And ‘Damien invests’ is honest as well
Andre jikh has a good handle as well .
I've read the FT, the Economist and other broadsheets this week, as I've tried to make sense of what has happened. This video blows them all out the water. This is first class content, independent thought and research. I love the variety of sources you pull from and the conclusions you draw from analysis.
This video is super well made, I tried understanding bonds, their yields and effect on the market recently. This video really brings it all together. Thank you so much!
Glad you enjoyed it @Robin Müller
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy. The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $250k is down to $192k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.
You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings.
@@chrisbluebird5037 that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you?
Thanks for this Ramin! Just one little thing: @16:25 you mentionned "the top 20% of households" while this should be "the top 5% of households".
Also, they don't have the greatest wealth. They have the greatest income. Big difference.
I find so much value in your videos !!!
I appreciate that @Battery Powered
Great content, thanks!
Thank you @Matt! Ramin
A great explanation of the effects of the mini budget. I feel the government have made a monumental mistake with the energy price cap and should have had something more like a fixed rebate on householder fuel costs to target fuel poverty rather than bail out millionaires heating their mansions. Stagflation coming!
one direction of thinking!
This could be the end of this government. How can the Tories have confidence in this debacle? Rumblings must be heard even at this early stage, in constituencies across the nation. The deal on the energy has been signed, it's binding on successors. No doubt it could be unwound at great expense, but the short- term thinking is breathtaking.
Great summary of the last few days.
The energy price guarantee could be very tricky. The messaging needs to be very precise. Otherwise it can easily spin out of control for the UK economy putting far more pressure on the Pound. In the short term, I would not be surprised if the Pound would slide to $0.80 before recovering.
I agree with all you have said. The message needs to be very precise or it can easily spin out of control. What I mean is stating that Asia enters into price competion with the European Union and mentioning that internal bussiness will instead hoard cash is better left unsaid. Because what he has done is alert Asia and British business what can be done to damage British FINANCIAL MARKETS EXTERNALLY AND INTERNALLY..
Ramin, you are truly a gift from financial heaven. Thank you for the education 🙏
thanks Ramin, this is the best content you put on UA-cam. I am glad you've been doing this for a while and I hope you will keep the news commentary coming in the future!
Glad you enjoy it @AIFX
This is definitely the channel I have been looking for since a considerable amount of time.
Thanks for the simple explanation.. Cheers
Glad it was helpful @Robert Parrott
Thanks for the clear and cogent explanations and interpretations - really excellent content.
Glad you liked it @Firs Argentum
Thanks for being calm and objective.
The GBP has been falling against the $ gradually for a century or more
Love it😍
Great video, Ramin! Congratulations for breaking it down so clearly. Keep it coming
Ramin, I think 11 Downing St needs you! Thanks for showing all these hard facts I would have no idea of knowing where to find.
Thanks as ever for your very helpful remarks Ramin. However, I think you meant to say the BoE were dovish, not hawkish - the markets were definitely expecting firm intent to raise interest rates quickly and I think they got anything but that.
Excellent.Thanks
Ok good TNX brother
Well presented by a very knowledgeable presenter. Thanks for making financial markets more enjoyable 😊
Our pleasure! @Wila Simps
This is quality very well explained
Thanks @Bilal
WOW😍 GUD NEWS👍️
Rishi knew this would happen. But Truss had a flowery way of speaking.
I simply can't put my finger on why the Tories chose her instead of Sunak - there must be some reason though.
@@JohninRosc i think it might have been his tan 👔suit
@@JohninRosc I think it was because she has made a lot of them much richer over night, they have been shorting the pound. And she's scrapping the 45% tax rate for people on more than £150000 gross per annum
@@fredatlas4396 she only told a select handful what the budget would contain (allegedly) - they chose her before they knew she’d make them rich. There must be something surely that they disliked most about Sunak - or is it a pigment of my imagination?
@@JohninRoscwhat do you mean? They have been choosing the worst candidate for the last 5 years. We went from Cameron to May then Johnson and now Truss...
Outstanding review of the situation and the consequences; whether UK equities are a good bet is a different issue.
It is hard to see how the Tory party can survive unless they abandon Truss; listening to her this morning, she would not confirm that there would not be spending cuts or failure to keep benefits in line with inflation.
Vague references to focus on outcomes as opposed to inputs??
Another NHS review - just as we go into winter??
The next few weeks will be very interesting!
Just superb!
Glad you like it @Michael Delisieux
"make a hedge fund blush." best line evar. we're done for!
Isn't the truth of this problem is that it has been building for 25 years. the fed, bank of england, the ECB monetising excessive government spending, keeping interest rates artificially low for years, creating economies addicted to low interest rates (Like a drug addicted economy) etc. Like the bond market bailout was a result of risky strategies due to artificially low interest rates? All of that combined with the fact the UK is not energy self-sufficient, this along with the inflation issues has exacerbated everything? And then politicians and central bankers will not take the blame for anything, its never their fault, its an act of god?
Very good video. thanks
Glad you liked it @Jose Santos
excellent as always..tks
Thank you @Alison Wang
Excellent review
Thank you kindly @Olito Nottero
top top top video. You are good sir !
Glad you liked it @realmadridvideos
Excellent
Great summary, TQ
Glad it was helpful @Paul Holdstock
I don't understand why the price of UK Gilts goes down when they yield higher interest. Surely something that gives a higher rate of return is worth more?
Great stuff! Would love to see a video on the Plaza Accord and if you think we'll have another one with these currency runs.
Glad I swapped from Target Retirement to Global all cap in December, vanguard need to smarten their act up.
Why, what's it got to do with Vanguard. The Vanguard target date retirement funds strategies are in line with a lot of similar retirement funds. Nobody has a crystal ball, and if I did I would already be more than set to retire in comfort
When you say at the end 'UK equity is looking like a bargain right now', is that for overseas purchasers due to Pound weakness or all purchasers, including those in the UK, due to valuations being at 'bargain' levels? I'm guessing the former?
FTSE 250 perhaps
You need to pay him first to get response. No free lunch from Ramin, he needs to feed Teddy. Ask Sven Carlin, he responds to anyone!
Yes the former
@@mikemike5973 I disagree, I think it's both.
And it's really only dollar holders (who don't have to be yanks), Euro and Yen holders are basically in the same position as GBP holders: but I think GBP will rebound much more quickly because the source of the GBP drop is basically a temper tantrum.
@@edwardkenworthy7013 well you can't really disagree as its a fact that for dollar holders UK ftse represents better value.
On a Cape ratio basis I'm sure the ftse would be better value than US major markets but haven't checked recently but it has had dismal performance in recent years basically going nowhere
There are no income tax cuts in Scotland, isn’t that figure wrong at 16:38? I see the note below the figure, but I think Scotland have made the decision to keep current rates.
Great video though, thank you 😊
They have
The government has only capped the unit rate of a flexible tariff - NOT capped the max you will have to pay regardless how much energy you use….if you use more energy you pay more.
One part of the analysis I disagree strongly on: The markets didn't dislike the BOE's tweet because it was "hawkish", they disliked it because they were hoping/expecting an emergency rate rise of 1% or more and Andrew Bailey ruled it out. He's the most dovish BOE Governer ever, an utter disgrace who has not even attempted to fulfill his remit of limiting inflation, and the statement "we won't hesitate to act" when followed by the unspoken "at our next meeting in NOVEMBER" is an absolute joke, to be quite honest.
BOE do not care about the value of the Sterling, Bailey is talking to Kwasi twice a week, it is all coordinated. If they raise the rates too much and too fast the housing market will collapse and the banks will follow. The UK is f....d. As FT article states today: The UK has confused itself with the States...huge mistake.
Yes, the BoE decisions are deemed untouchable by financial critics…
Yes the BoE should have reacted much sooner and long before Liz Truss became Prime Minister and in fact months sooner.
Never want to hear again that the economy is safe in Tory hands
PensionCraft should be an advisor for the Tories.
The Tories get all this advice and more. They just don’t listen
VGOV was supposed to be my bad times hedge. Currently VGOV has sold off harder than VMID. Is VGOV a meme stock yet?
I have the Acc version of vgov and I was expecting it to give some stability, down side protection to my portfolio. I guess the only upside might be when I come to rebalance, as if the gilts are stil way down or even further down I will be buying gilts at a much lower price point. Which I hope will then produce better returns in the future
I can understand why new mortgages are applied at the current interest rate. But why do existing loans increase too? That deal is done, the bank borrowed the money at 1% and sold it to me at 2%. Why do existing loans get affected (mortgages)….
Increasing money in the economy increases inflation which leads to higher interest rates. The budget did not encourage industry to invest - when the cost of borrowing is up!!
Would you buy GLTL now ? What are your views on the long end curve yield interval in %?
It will be helpful If you can explain the effects of us fixed market or world fixed income markets.
Only have to look at the awful year to date performance of UK gilts and compare them to EM Local Currency Bonds (these have performed far better than UK gilts this year) to realise that there is something very, very wrong with the economics of the UK these days.
A country and people should live within their own means to avoid any disaster.
The UK economy is in a worse state than my gusset after a nasty follow through from last night's Vindaloo.
Nah. That's just what the "liberal" "elite" want you to believe: the state of the UK economy isn't great but it's better than many, EU and USA. But then they're led by idiot "liberal" "elite" mouth breathers. The UK at least is starting to climb its way out of the enormous hole that the idiots leading us for the last 20 years dug.
WoW😍 GUD NEWS👍️
@@RogerYeahmon Couldn't comment!
What about the solvency of the BoE? Their bond assets must have been destroyed over the last few months and they also pay an overnight rate on the gilts!
You are a treasure sir❤
Thank you so much 😀 @mohamed hossein
Thank you
You're welcome @Arda Güney
well explained
Thank you @Aditthiyan SA
There's obviously a lot of doom and gloom at the moment - from an investment stand point I'd love to see some videos on good investments to make in this bear market. Energy has probably already done its biggest run. Should we just be shorting?
Why did the GBP fall when BoE signalled a higher interest rate? Shouldn’t the value have gone up? I’m confused😅
Sorry, the currency didn’t fall in response to a BoE threat to raise interest rates; it’s probably because markets sense they’re not in control..
Not so much that they are not in control but because they don't have the will. The one thing the BoE is good at is acting too late.
ramin can you make a video about the british pound and wherher it will go to zero.....what does this mean for the normal person living in the uk in terms of day to day living
I am an ex pat pensioner living on Bulgaria totally reliant upon my State Pension. This morning changed into Euro and Bulgarian Lev!
How much houses drop which areas are more exposure
My pension provider actually increased UK gilt exposure in July which flabbergasted me at the time as clearly UK yields had much further to rise than were already priced in, even before the shenigans of the latest airheads in Downing St.
Suppose they couldn’t have predicted thick liz getting power.
Thanks for another timely update. Just wondering if mortgage rates rise and it puts pressure on the housing market, what would happen to the rental market? Would first-time buyers be better off to rent for longer, or the house price drop could offer a good entry point?
Would think getting a mortgage at a good rate will be the issue .
Im a funded trader and I am also guilty of short selling the pound. 😭sorry. Especially Sunday at 8 PM est. that candle was insane.
I have been delaying getting solar panels and battery fitted but due to increasing interest rates, inflation at an all time high…I’ve decided to go ahead and get solar installed taking advantage of 11 year interest free government loan of £11k (Monthly payment of £77) ….is it correct to assume due to interest free rate…my loan is a no brainier as the value of the loan will actually decrease due to high inflation?
The UK banks and economy is better position than Germany, France and Italy.
If the BOE hold firm the pound will rise up steadily back to $1.20. In 2020 the U.K. financial industry was worried that the pound would bounce up to over $1.60 or worse.
they are not xD
because the uk also have brexit to deal with
Yeah and the EU/Euro has so many countries tied up together. Italy is a ticking time bomb for them. 10x the debt of greece.... If they go, the money will have run out, theres only so much propping up the german taxpayer can do. I get what the EU/Euro was trying to accomplish, but i think in the end it will fail
Thanks Ramin, great video at confusing times. What I'd like to know is how to maximize extra bits of cash, now we won't be investing in US currency as much. Invest in FTSE100? Pay off mortgage? Keep buying global index funds?
Physical gold linked to the British Pound is doing just fine
This is irony, right? Physical gold 'in pounds' rather than 'linked to the pound' is only doing ok because the pound is tanking! Why didn't you get it 'linked to the Zimbabwe dollar'? Then it would be doing amazing!
I think you are too positive about it. The whole thing was a disaster and I wouldn't be surprised if they take it back altogether or we soon will have general elections.
With FED on 3.0% and BoE on 2.25%. If the FED goes for another 0.75% BoE will need to go 1.5% in November to match them at 3.75%.
because of all the unbacked debt used for the uk housing boom is causing rapid inflation, the uk cannot raise rates.
so it can only deflate the currency worth. your pensions are to be sacrificed to inflation.
good money is the root to all evil,,,
Hi Ramin, thanks for another great video. Would you be able to comment on what factors would make bond funds such as VGOV to rebound from the current lows? Do you think the current 40% slide of VGOV is already pricing in the interest rate rise to the level of 6%?
It's a safe assumption that the market prices everything in (and even if it didn't, we have no way of knowing so why worry ?)
Ma
I thought if we get a recession that could cause the UK gilts to go back up in value, as they will surely have to put interest rates back down again if we enter a recession.
@@fredatlas4396 thanks for your comment. If Bank of England followed the approach of fed then I guess they would only reduce interest rates if there is a recession and they are confident that inflation is under control. I worry that hitting a recession may not be enough for boe to reduce rates.
@@chrisf1600 yes, good point. I would still like to have a better knowledge about factors that could drive VGOV up or down.
I will rephrase my question. What would make VGOV go to zero? Would that happen only if UK defaulted on its debt? Any other possibilities?
I went to USD, completely, 5 months ago
What about the cost of war in the Ukraiňe? How much does war cost?
The Bank of England and the chancellor’s policies seem to be at loggerheads.
This is exactly the problem. The BoE should be implementing Government policy, not creating their own.
@@edwardkenworthy7013 we need an adult in charge though otherwise inflation will go through the roof
They are pulling in different directions. Bailey should have increased interest rates earlier. Now his hand has been forced and the interest rate increase is a bit of a shock. Hopefully France will get their nuclear plants back in service soon.
So is a UK gilt a good investment now?
No
Yes.
Why did UK leave The European common market?
Sounds very scary hopefully the market recovery is sooner than later
for the uk it wont, it will likely take a decade
Dollar will always be strong that’s when it’s the reserve currency of the world. Everything is priced in dollars. Gov’t need to stop QE, raise interest rates to head inflation off over the longer term. Kicking the ‘can’ down the road isn’t an option. Bonds down, housing down, stocks down. Only save haven gold and silver?
Have Truss' government screwed it up for us?
the Tories have screwed the uk for decades.
With ALL these negative news; Why UK stock market not going down ???
Mainly because the adults know this is just a temper tantrum by the "liberal" "elite" children.
UK is following Sri Lanka and Greece footsteps to bankruptcy.
High government spending = increase government debt.
Lower tax = reduce government income.
When both policies are implement, it is the first step to bankruptcy. The currency will lose its value and UK will default on its debt.
The chart at16.28 shows the wealthiest 5% of households receive virtually all of the gains while the poorest 5% get nothing.
Here - let's fix that: 16:28
I'm not from the UK/Britian (why the two names?) but it seems that cutting taxes while you increase borrowing is hypocritical. It seems that all governments in the western world just cannot get spending in line with income. It's been this way for decades now and I think we are just living on fumes at this point. Wide-spread prosperity is over, the fat lady just needs to sing. I just don't see how governments can keep borrowing to bail-out every mishap that comes along. At some point surely the structure has to teeter and collapse, yes?
@@edwardkenworthy7013 Thanks Edward for the info re: Britian / UK, I did not know that.
I guess I'm stunned by the ineptitude of government. Here in Canada they have literally screwed up everything over the last 30 or 40 years (i.e. the health care system is now a total mess with no way to get any private health care). What do we have to show for it? A huge deficit. They cannot solve problems, only compound them. "Keep kicking the can down the road and bury your head in the sand" should be their motto. It's Kafkaesque.
In today's paper there is an article about Ukraine asking Canada to handle war crimes tribunals there. I have absolutely no confidence that they will do anything but botch that project after having spent hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars. It seems to be the same all over the western world.
@15:39 weird assumption!
I thought Bailey's comments helped £ recover. Did I misunderstand?
Thanks Government for tanking my house builder stocks.
@richard chapman With Persimmon yielding something like 20% i'm happy to just ride it out :)
Sorry Raminibut you do not understand how a currency issuing government works. MMT and Steve Keens new book clearly show that Spending by government comes first. Then tax removes money from the economy. Therefore tax DOES NOT fund spending.
Study modern monetary theory.
Consider double entry book keeping, as shown, by Steev Keen.
Selling gilts by the government is optional and simply avoids the Treasury account at the BoE from going into overdraft.
Anyway banks use reserves to buy government bonds and the banks reserves come from the BoE. OK that's a bit simplified but in essence shows that all government spending is self financed.
Very disappointed you are regurgitating discredited economic views.
Tax cuts for the wealthy when the poor can’t afford food, heating and rent is foolish.
Encouraging wealth makers so that there is tax money to support those in genuine need is not foolish.
Despite Corbyn and Johnson and Sunak's delusion, there is no magic money tree: someone has to earn it.
Andrew Bailey + this government = absolute car crash
Reopen our coal fields and let's get producing our own goods . We (the UK) have been on a downward spiral ever since Manufacturing was moved to india and chaina when thatcher came to power. We need to step back to move forward, but not with the WEF running our governments.
The lemmings effect?
India should support UK
Hi, I need help. Would you be able to assist me with my investments please? How can I approach you? Thanks
Hi @Uk Dental Exam I'm not a financial advisor but I do coach clients one-to-one. You can find out more about this on my website here www.pensioncraft.com/investor-education/coaching/ Thanks Ramin
The solution forward i see is stop the welfare cheques, Social security cheques, make Education and Healthcare completely free and wait 10 yrs for the economy to reach the top. Energy solution like mini nuclear reactors are not arriving till 2030.
Vote for clowns, enjoy the circus
There are only clowns to vote.. the brown guy who was sane and not a clown was not Votable because of racist bias
If voting mattered they wouldn't let you do it
Q: UK's Economic Crisis 2022 - What Happens Next? A: UK becomes the next Turkey
UK ECONOMY THE END🎉🎉