I can remember many years ago visiting all the camera stores in Manhattan for photography stuff. So many are gone now. Being from Jersey, they all knew how to get around the sales tax issue when making a big purchase. You went home with the camera but the lens cap was mailed to you and that was one of the work arounds. I remember those days fondly. Hope you found some good deals. Thank you for the time you take to make these videos. Precious tidbits of wisdom and practicality.
Thanks, thanks, thanks, I am delighted you are enjoying the videos! Only major camera stores left in Manhattan are B&H and Adorama. It is shame there are not more of them.
2nd but I commented 😜 I agree Alan > Even though WeWork is a large Space provider in NYC and surrounding area , compared to the entire cube-ft space that is in NYC , they are still just a drop in the bucket . When the advantage goes a-way of renting out a floor to several floors and then dividing the space and sub-leasing goes away . WeWorks will either have to tighten their belt or raise their fees . If WeWork tenants feel the rent will go up when lease renewing comes around they may start looking for new space to hedge their bets .
Thanks for your visits into our homes, Alan. I appreciate your "voice of reason" and perspective. Clear and concise information and opinion is very rare at UA-cam. Happy Holidays!
We don’t have thanksgiving in Germany but nevertheless, thanks for the well wishes and I hope you had (and have) a good time too. I do like your perspective, once again very interesting video and very concise. I thank you for that.
Never quite understood that thinking. Even if wework collapsed completely, wework is not a _consumer_ of office space, nor a producer. They're basically a reseller. The market doesn't crash if the reseller goes under, not as long as "consumer" demand pretty much stays the same. If anything, full lease pricing likely goes up as a tonne of tenants that has "grown up" dealing with wework, flood onto the market and get thrown into the jaws of traditional NYC landlords.
Yes, the tenants that occupy space in WeWork's NYC location would need to relocate in Manhattan. They would either lease space in competing co-working space or lease direct from landlords. So it would be a reshuffling of the market with not much drop in demand.
That's my 2 cents in this, for what it's worth. This is a bit long-winded, not really important but IMO a sensible reflection none the less. Reader beware :) Real estate in NYC is _kind of_ a commodity, not a fleeting fad. And there's few signs on the horizon suggesting there'll be any notable _less_ demand, at least the next few years. WeWork and similar co-working space "resellers" (for continuation context), have facilitated many smaller startups, mostly-or-previously-decentralized businesses and the likes, to get into proper commercial space at an earlier stage. And as a tenant, dealing with wework has a _much_ lower bar of entry for needing to understand how the dynamics, mechanics and dealings lf NYC lease real estate works, to not get had or a bad deal. Many of those companies having started out with wework (or similar competitors), have grown substantially during their time "there", but for various reasons are still there. Out of wishes, necessity or both, a whole lot of those are gonna be considering moving on to a full lease, if and when they need to move out of their wework space - having to move is usually "less than ideal", and especially for those being inexperienced dealing with NYC real estate, wanting their own lease so this (kind of) situation has a mich smaller chance of springing a surprise beyond their control on them again, is gonna be in the minds of a very big portion of the afflicted subtenants. The meaty inertia of change has already broken friction, and they're bound to considering different options once needing to make that move anyway. And in my thinking, that's where the "ease" and low(er) tenant bar for dealing with the likes of wework, comes in. Loads of smaller companies in relatively slow growth, tend to stick with what they know, both because its familiar and "lower risk", and for some, because the changes due to growth happen gradually and the need for larger/better/more tailored to their specific needs space, aren't as apparent as when change/growth and increased needs happen more rapid. So a massive volume of tenants in a relatively short timeframe, venture out on the traditional NYC real estate market, having been in business in NYC for years (some maybe close to a decade) but have never actually dealt with a traditional landlord, a broker, or ordinary commercial leases before. Meaning a lot, if not most of them, are _ not_ gonna (be able and lucky enough to) hook up with a NYC broker unicorn like Alan. Thus they'll end up with significantly less favorable leases (including more expensive) - than they would had they had a bit more experience, and there were not so many tenants coming onto the full lease market "at once".
But, what if the sudden insane growth of WeWork was symptomatic of the market being in a bubble...and the company's imminent bankruptcy was a foreshadow of an upcoming collapse in the office space market?To explain my sentence, I feel that the sudden growth of WeWork was due to a sense of fear about finding quality tenants(in addition to a bit of stupidity and greed). Now that the WeWork leases may possibly terminate either by rescinding them or by bankruptcy of the company, that will enhance the fear about finding good quality tenants. If the supply of space at the prices doesn't drop by a noticeable amount...a subsequent real drop in demand might be the catalyst of the next big market downturn.
I appreciate the consistancy in your uploads , even the views are stagnating. it's so kind to share information even if only a hand full are daily viewers . maybe do something with louis again . it would be sad to see you disappear in a nieche
I hear you and agree that I need more diverse visuals and will be making an effort to add them in future video. Root canal without anesthesia would be more enjoyable than my experience learning about the subtleties of white balance, audio files, video files, synchronizing mics, receivers and cameras and managing content on my computer. I am just getting over the trauma and starting to enjoy producing video. Sooner rather than later, I will start to learn the ins and out of producing more diverse and enjoyable content. Thanks for your patience. If you have more specific suggestions I would very much appreciate them. The Louis Rossmann episode is in the past. This channel will need to stand on its own legs.
Don't worry to much , you doing great. it's so important that people like you are sharing their knowledge and passion without any incentive except hoping to make a positive impression on people and make the world a more humble and caring society. you're honest and if I am not totally wrong you're trying to do better . Viele Grűße aus Deutschland :)
Real estate is a historically stable market--I'm not terribly worried about one bad actor What I am worried about is the industry that WeWork is pretending to be in. I suspect that WeWork may incidentally pop the tech bubble through collateral damage, since they follow the same VC model as many tech startups.
Investors will certainly be more focused on profit rather than revenue growth after this debacle. However, WeWork was a real estate company masquerading as a technology firm. Their model never offered the same potential for profitability as the more innovative tech start-ups.
Now that the coronavirus is in full swing and "non-essential businesses" are being forced to shut down--and meanwhile still have to pay rent--how do you expect WeWork is doing now?
Sure Alan, the WeWork collapse may only affect about 1% of the NYC office space market but its demise is a hint of things to come, a kind of domino stone of the crash that is sure to follow - with or without WeWork. Since mid-September the Federal Reserve has injected over 3 trillion Dollars into the market by giving the big banks 75 billion freshly printed Dollars almost daily. This was triggered by the intra-day borrowing rate between banks going above 10% not just once but several times. All the indicators of a gigantic burst are present: GDP growth is below 3%, the (declared) inflation rate is teetering near 2%, US manufacturing continues to shrink to below 47%: 10-year T-bills are nary at 0.2%, wage growth is stagnant at under 3% and has been flat for 40 years (!). The Fed had to lower its interest rate to below 2% while the monthly household price index is going to new heights. Meanwhile the stock market and with it the top 1% income earnings of those people who actually file a tax return keep going up. This is when money as a currency becomes its own justification for profit. Happy Holidays. :-|
I can remember many years ago visiting all the camera stores in Manhattan for photography stuff. So many are gone now. Being from Jersey, they all knew how to get around the sales tax issue when making a big purchase. You went home with the camera but the lens cap was mailed to you and that was one of the work arounds. I remember those days fondly.
Hope you found some good deals. Thank you for the time you take to make these videos. Precious tidbits of wisdom and practicality.
Thanks, thanks, thanks, I am delighted you are enjoying the videos!
Only major camera stores left in Manhattan are B&H and Adorama. It is shame there are not more of them.
Happy Thanksgiving weekend, Alan, and happy lens hunting!
WeWork collapse will increase prices for full leased, good explanation!
WeWork : We don't work- We absorb money.
you have a good weekend, Alan.
You too!!
2nd but I commented 😜
I agree Alan > Even though WeWork is a large Space provider in NYC and surrounding area , compared to the entire cube-ft space that is in NYC , they are still just a drop in the bucket . When the advantage goes a-way of renting out a floor to several floors and then dividing the space and sub-leasing goes away . WeWorks will either have to tighten their belt or raise their fees . If WeWork tenants feel the rent will go up when lease renewing comes around they may start looking for new space to hedge their bets .
Thanks for your visits into our homes, Alan. I appreciate your "voice of reason" and perspective. Clear and concise information and opinion is very rare at UA-cam. Happy Holidays!
We don’t have thanksgiving in Germany but nevertheless, thanks for the well wishes and I hope you had (and have) a good time too.
I do like your perspective, once again very interesting video and very concise. I thank you for that.
Greatly appreciated!!!
Never quite understood that thinking. Even if wework collapsed completely, wework is not a _consumer_ of office space, nor a producer. They're basically a reseller. The market doesn't crash if the reseller goes under, not as long as "consumer" demand pretty much stays the same. If anything, full lease pricing likely goes up as a tonne of tenants that has "grown up" dealing with wework, flood onto the market and get thrown into the jaws of traditional NYC landlords.
Yes, the tenants that occupy space in WeWork's NYC location would need to relocate in Manhattan. They would either lease space in competing co-working space or lease direct from landlords. So it would be a reshuffling of the market with not much drop in demand.
Pretty valid point.
That's my 2 cents in this, for what it's worth. This is a bit long-winded, not really important but IMO a sensible reflection none the less. Reader beware :)
Real estate in NYC is _kind of_ a commodity, not a fleeting fad. And there's few signs on the horizon suggesting there'll be any notable _less_ demand, at least the next few years.
WeWork and similar co-working space "resellers" (for continuation context), have facilitated many smaller startups, mostly-or-previously-decentralized businesses and the likes, to get into proper commercial space at an earlier stage. And as a tenant, dealing with wework has a _much_ lower bar of entry for needing to understand how the dynamics, mechanics and dealings lf NYC lease real estate works, to not get had or a bad deal.
Many of those companies having started out with wework (or similar competitors), have grown substantially during their time "there", but for various reasons are still there. Out of wishes, necessity or both, a whole lot of those are gonna be considering moving on to a full lease, if and when they need to move out of their wework space - having to move is usually "less than ideal", and especially for those being inexperienced dealing with NYC real estate, wanting their own lease so this (kind of) situation has a mich smaller chance of springing a surprise beyond their control on them again, is gonna be in the minds of a very big portion of the afflicted subtenants. The meaty inertia of change has already broken friction, and they're bound to considering different options once needing to make that move anyway.
And in my thinking, that's where the "ease" and low(er) tenant bar for dealing with the likes of wework, comes in. Loads of smaller companies in relatively slow growth, tend to stick with what they know, both because its familiar and "lower risk", and for some, because the changes due to growth happen gradually and the need for larger/better/more tailored to their specific needs space, aren't as apparent as when change/growth and increased needs happen more rapid.
So a massive volume of tenants in a relatively short timeframe, venture out on the traditional NYC real estate market, having been in business in NYC for years (some maybe close to a decade) but have never actually dealt with a traditional landlord, a broker, or ordinary commercial leases before. Meaning a lot, if not most of them, are _ not_ gonna (be able and lucky enough to) hook up with a NYC broker unicorn like Alan. Thus they'll end up with significantly less favorable leases (including more expensive) - than they would had they had a bit more experience, and there were not so many tenants coming onto the full lease market "at once".
I love your content Alan. Your production quality looking great!
Interesting perspective. Thanks!
Great video good topic. Thanks Alan!
But, what if the sudden insane growth of WeWork was symptomatic of the market being in a bubble...and the company's imminent bankruptcy was a foreshadow of an upcoming collapse in the office space market?To explain my sentence, I feel that the sudden growth of WeWork was due to a sense of fear about finding quality tenants(in addition to a bit of stupidity and greed). Now that the WeWork leases may possibly terminate either by rescinding them or by bankruptcy of the company, that will enhance the fear about finding good quality tenants. If the supply of space at the prices doesn't drop by a noticeable amount...a subsequent real drop in demand might be the catalyst of the next big market downturn.
From WeWork to WeWere :)
Do we work own the building space? If not how do they get around the normal cause of no subletting?
Everything is negotiable. For the right price they'll allow subletting
Thanks to Softbank, Wework will not default on all those very expensive leases.
Excite
I appreciate the consistancy in your uploads , even the views are stagnating. it's so kind to share information even if only a hand full are daily viewers . maybe do something with louis again . it would be sad to see you disappear in a nieche
Disappearing only for non-target audiences, not for others.
I hear you and agree that I need more diverse visuals and will be making an effort to add them in future video.
Root canal without anesthesia would be more enjoyable than my experience learning about the subtleties of white balance, audio files, video files, synchronizing mics, receivers and cameras and managing content on my computer. I am just getting over the trauma and starting to enjoy producing video.
Sooner rather than later, I will start to learn the ins and out of producing more diverse and enjoyable content. Thanks for your patience.
If you have more specific suggestions I would very much appreciate them. The Louis Rossmann episode is in the past. This channel will need to stand on its own legs.
Don't worry to much , you doing great. it's so important that people like you are sharing their knowledge and passion without any incentive except hoping to make a positive impression on people and make the world a more humble and caring society. you're honest and if I am not totally wrong you're trying to do better . Viele Grűße aus Deutschland :)
Real estate is a historically stable market--I'm not terribly worried about one bad actor
What I am worried about is the industry that WeWork is pretending to be in. I suspect that WeWork may incidentally pop the tech bubble through collateral damage, since they follow the same VC model as many tech startups.
Investors will certainly be more focused on profit rather than revenue growth after this debacle.
However, WeWork was a real estate company masquerading as a technology firm. Their model never offered the same potential for profitability as the more innovative tech start-ups.
Go to Trump tower and make an offer of 50cents . Lol
Now that the coronavirus is in full swing and "non-essential businesses" are being forced to shut down--and meanwhile still have to pay rent--how do you expect WeWork is doing now?
"Crash NYCs Office" got 9/11 flashbacks
I didn't at all think of that. Hope it was not unintentionally in bad taste.
Too soon?
@@MetroManhattanOfficeSpace not at all, I just tend to take things out of context as quickly as possible lol
Great video. Can you discuss your perspective on Louis Rossman finding a space on his own while working with you?
Sure Alan, the WeWork collapse may only affect about 1% of the NYC office space market but its demise is a hint of things to come, a kind of domino stone of the crash that is sure to follow - with or without WeWork.
Since mid-September the Federal Reserve has injected over 3 trillion Dollars into the market by giving the big banks 75 billion freshly printed Dollars almost daily. This was triggered by the intra-day borrowing rate between banks going above 10% not just once but several times. All the indicators of a gigantic burst are present: GDP growth is below 3%, the (declared) inflation rate is teetering near 2%, US manufacturing continues to shrink to below 47%: 10-year T-bills are nary at 0.2%, wage growth is stagnant at under 3% and has been flat for 40 years (!). The Fed had to lower its interest rate to below 2% while the monthly household price index is going to new heights. Meanwhile the stock market and with it the top 1% income earnings of those people who actually file a tax return keep going up.
This is when money as a currency becomes its own justification for profit.
Happy Holidays. :-|
oy vey!
👍
😎🤙🦃
Hi! 1st