Are There Spots We Should NEVER Bluff in Live Poker?
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- Опубліковано 16 лип 2024
- In this video, we tackle a crucial question: "Are There Spots We Should NEVER Bluff in Live Poker?" Join us for a deep dive into a hand review where our caller faces a tough decision. Holding key blockers, he suspects his opponent has the broadway straight. Should he go for the bluff, knowing he can represent a few stronger hands? Or should he play it safe, considering how hard it is to get the average live cash game player to fold a strong made hand?
We analyze the hand, discuss the strategy, and explore the psychological aspects of bluffing in live cash games. Perfect for those looking to improve their poker strategy and make better decisions at the table.
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0:00 - Intro
2:49 - Preflop
3:53 - Flop
6:30 - Turn
13:21 - River
20:21 - Hero Decision
20:27 - Reveal
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► / crushlivepoker - Ігри
Do you agree we should not bluff this spot and that villian should always call if faced with a bet after this action?
Bluffing here is a spew. I'm checking ( if BB bets I'm calling) and hoping he has KJ/QJ/JT. If button makes that turn call he gets 0 dollars on the river.
I think hero should have bluffed the river. Like Bart said, BB should be betting the river with AJ and the fact he checked and checked pretty quickly tells me he was legitimately scared hero had a flush or full house.
@@ThePatriots010304 Being scared of a flush doesn't mean he won't call a bet...it just means he would rather show down than be raised. He'll know there are some bluffs there. Villain calls a lot more often than you might think. More often than not you're bluffing to win half the pot. Yes...QJ likely folds...AJ likely doesn't.
I’m the caller in the hand. A couple of things listening back that I think about this hand. I play a lot of PLO and I think concepts from there can apply to this hand.
Turn:
Having the freeroll suits without actually having a redraw makes his value range weighted towards AJ whereas if I didn’t have them he may feel comfortable xr just a J with a fd. Since we think it’s unlikely he’s bluffing this suit combo is more of a fold than the club diamond variations. In PLO, sometimes it is trivial to fold second nuts or nuts no redraw when it’s the non-unique nuts, this spot could be similar to that idea.
River:
Again with PLO, there are often spots where everyone at the table knows one player has the current nuts and the other has a massive draw where any flush complete or board pair gives them the winner. This situation is not that, but it could be similar in that opponent will give credit when “everything gets there”. I still think River bluff is viable but mostly a check back.
Appreciate Bart’s feedback and the comments as well
I think it's interesting considering the villain checks on the river. That could indicate he isn't hand reading properly as you mentioned. Great call in
So interesting, becuase in theory if hero is truly bottom of range he should bluff, but if villain is truly top of range, he should call. This is why I love barts theory based deviations and exploits, nice hand
The problem is villain is only at the "very" top of his range because hero has Jh. Villain doesn't know that. If you're villain, getting to the river as played, there are better hands that get to the river this way (JThh and AJhh in particular)...and if villain checked AJ, he could check those....if he's afraid of a boat. It comes down to whether those combos make a difference in an MDF type call. Discounting the other suited aces, that would throw the whole "top of range" thing out, regardless.
That cap increase completely changed the game... last year during the wsop.... softest 5/10 around. Now that its 2500, it turned into a nit game
Most of the UTG Jx are suited combos. So if your holding a straight on the river likely a lil less than 1/3 of the time the EP pfr will have a flush.
All depends on how much of a thinking player Vil is here. As a reg, which he didn't know til later, sounds like spew to bomb river. Low stakes vs ave NIT, it could work perhaps 🤷♂️
This was a very good call.
Really great call in hand. Very interesting.
I think Bart failed to mention the check-raise sizing on the turn - and its importance when hand reading. The turn action went bet 120, call 120, raise to 750. That type of sizing screams nuts on a super draw-heavy board.
@@supersmoo7377
What? Bart put the villain on exactly AJ off, I.e. the nuts, based on his turn bet sizing
@@RaizorB Yes, I meant to say he failed to "emphasize" the check-raise size on turn. I agree with Bart's assessment on AJ due to the size of the check raise. IF villain instead went to 350-400, I could see more combo draws and bluffs in their range. With the size of 750, it mostly represents a nutted hand trying to protect/get value from draws.
Villain can be semi-bluffing on the turn with hands like Axhh and Axss. He can rep AJ, and can improve to the nuts if called.
He may discount the chance Hero has AJ, when Hero checks the flop, since AJ would likely want protection on such a draw-heavy board, against multiple opponents.
Villain could also be doing this with one of the sets, for the same reasons.
This. Also, if BB has same read of BTN, squeeze might get him HU vs whale.
This is interesting in that I think hero only truly reps a straight flush for value which is kind of an odd scenario. If you plugged this into a solver my guess would be that we want to take all in sizing with the straight flush (JThh), which means with a combo containing the Jh, we are probably supposed to mix in an occasional bluff shove (id imagine like 20% or something but don’t really know the frequency).
That being said, we cannot really be expected to know this in game, and as mentioned in the analysis I think we can never really expect a thinking player to fold AJ so I think just always giving up the JJ and always shoving the JThh is the play. We will never get exploited given that we won’t ever be in this exact spot for the rest of our lives.
My take - we can't have many bluffs here on the river because we don't have the value to back it up. We don't have value in part because we're betting our sets on the flop. It seems to me that if you wanted to play in a somewhat balanced fashion then, you'd need to check some of your sets through on the flop.
The problems with checking flop are (a) the board is very dynamic and there are a ton of draws you may want protection/extract value from, and (b) the hand is 4-way on the flop.
If you’re hero and you have a set, how much are you betting on the flop? And then how would your turn sizing look with the flush draw and straight coming in, if you bet at all?
Flop I assume 25-50% pot and then would turn be a shutdown or relatively large (60%+) knowing you have lots of outs?
BTW, Villain does not know that the best hand he could have on the river is AJo, though, since villain does not know that the Jh is not available to him! I still would not bluff the river ...
11:30. I'm baffled by the commentary here. The BB could have a lot of nonsense. I'd be more surprised if he checked the nut straight twice with all the draws.
Hero could easily have KJ check flop bets when straight comes in and flat call the CR bc they have outs to fill up or catch ace or flush come in to bluff
6:15 why would you check raise a set of queens but not a set of kings
Because QQ unblocks top pair & KK blocks top pair
@@EllieBanks333makes sense thanks!
This is a crazy hand. Straights out there. Flush and full house.
17 combos of reasonable flush draws/sets hero's ahead of on the turn (not to mention the 24 combos of pair +J we chop with), vs 8 combos of AJ we lose to (that BB checks twice?!). Jamming turn doesn't seem like a bad play honestly.
12:00 I've watched this twice now. Young guy drinking and socializing could and would raise with a TON of combo draws. What is he gonna do with, say, a pair gutter and flush draw?
if im putting villain on AJ more likely on turn based on that big raise, the river of Kh is the best card to bluff on, as you can represent Jx of heart and all kinds of sets and two pair that turns full house on river, with the J of heart here I will certainly bluff opponent off AJ and KJ QJ TJ
Why doesn’t villain have flushes? Could he not check raise a nut flush draw as a bluff since UTG doesn’t have a ton of Jx. Though I’m not a 5/10 player and no where near as good.
As played I think villain can have better hands than AJo on the river. Specifically AJhh and JThh can be played this way for sure, so I feel like if villain finds some folds with AJ they're not range folding/making an MDF mistake. I also think if villain is going to call sometimes and fold sometimes with AJo they're going to slightly prefer calling when they have a heart in their hand. So, if we are going to bluff here sometimes, Jh feels like an insanely good card to do it with since we block every one of their best calling hands except AhJx. All comes down to whether you think villain is willing to fold broadway or not. That is really just extremely player dependent imo so I feel like either checking or bluffing can be good here?
Villain cannot have AJhh or JThh because Hero blocks Jh
@@brandonchow5962 Luckily villain does not know that we have Jh, so, from their perspective, they have better hands they can call a river shove with. This is exactly why Jh would make the best bluff candidate for us.
@@bobbyD5975they do not have a better hand to call with than AJ, other than the royal (not knowing hero has Jh). As played villain never ever has boat on the river.
They do not have a flush either because hero can’t have a boat. A flush never checks river (assuming villain is a young reg/pro as caller said)
@@Young-ep8ik True I didn't think about that. I guess villain probably isn't ever going to check JThh on the river unless they're expecting us to bluff off a lot. I'm surprised villain doesn't bet AJ on this river though, so who knows if he might also find a check with AJhh. Feels like he was scared of the boat.
The hero almost never has a boat on the river as played. This is just a check back on the river after the bad call on the turn.
I agree hero should've jammed turn.
The Villain's check-raise on the turn could easily be ANY of the sets. His check-raise would be a semi-bluff hoping that the board pairs.
I would 100% call on the turn - any day and twice on Sunday.
🤡
If you have a set, you just obviously call because you’re getting good odds to draw to a boat. What you don’t do is inflate the pot with a set when you’re either way ahead or behind to a straight.
Villain is in BB and this was a single raise pre-flop. Yet you think villain can have ANY set? And you think he's check-raising with a set when the turn puts a one-liner on board?
@9:28 to Bart's credit, this is that spot where you definitely have to slow things down. Your hand is strong, and you block other strong hands, but the problem is that it should be obvious that you have a strong hand -- at the very least a J. So what is not afraid of your 2nd nuts?
A Q of Spades is a spot that could certainly bluff here.
I cant fold that turn, maybe not these stakes but at 1/3 i see guys raise 2 pair or sets in spots like that.
6:00 redraw or just draw?
i think if theres more money behind so you can 1.5x - 2x pot all in you can get a live player to fold AJ here
Hero can't have J10hh?
Pretty happily folding the turn. Not giving the average live player credit for having enough bluffs to justify calling. Seems like a max value line knowing at least one of you will call with a J.
Wasted time talking about a improbable flush when everyone discounts KQ and K10 as value bets on the turn against 2 flush draws. Full houses are absolutely possible
What is a "mdf mistake"?
Minimum defense frequency dictates how often hand should be continued with in order to not get exploited against by all of villain's bluffs. There's an equation for it but you never really actively think about it. Instead, it helps to observe the player type, and look at how value heavy their betting range is. A maniac's betting range is far too loose, and you can call re a lly wide for value. There may be cases where you call with Ace high and drag the pot. A NIT's betting range is so value heavy that there are no bluffs. In these cases, hero.should fold everything but the best of hands. Combining this with the size of the bet villain puts tells you how worth it is to even call the bet with your bluffcatchers, since the sizing may be so big that there's no way your bluffcatcher beats the bluffs they WOULD have. When you feel it, you can start to anticipate it
@atfti
Thank you for answering what that acronym is & going into further detail.. I intuitively knew this from years of experience, but didn't realize there was a phrase coined..
The game is "played" or analyzed way differently than in the mid 90s- early 00s.. I've got a lot of work to do!
Never bluff if they are going to call !!! Fingers crossed against calling stations isn’t best EV bluffing .. bluff the OMC
Is there ever KQ D OR C?
The big mistake was not betting on the flop. If the hero has anything like QQ KK JJ AJ he has to bet esp with 3 other players in the hand( & fulsh draw).
If we have 5/10 players saying this board is a “check 100% of range board” for a UTG open, then poker is truly alive and well!
If you jam the river, you just might win
that's the spirit!
I wouldve value-reraised the turn and got all the money in. In this rare instance I wouldve been behind but if the opponent has any two pair or set I wouldve been ahead!
It's important to realize how condensed ranges are on the river here. Each player only has a handful of hands. So even if hero hardly ever has boats here, he still has them more often than villian. Therefore in theory he can find some bluffs and this combo is the single best choice. I think Bart is underestimating how often villian folds AJo facing a large bet.
Villain should never fold AJ here.
Won player has AJ and the other has JJ neither blocks sets. BB blind checks because he's afraid of a boat or a flush... A big bet on the river and BB folds...
As played, what can Hero represent? If Villain is a thinking player, he will find the call.
@@OneEyedJack01 Hero can have both JThh and AJhh
@@OneEyedJack01The guy doesnt know the difference between won and one i didnt expect him to say anything smart 🤣
@OneEyedJack01 that's the thing. Depends on how much of a thinking player he is. He could just get scared of flush or full house, thinking hero called the raise on turn with 2 pair or set. I've seen so many plays like that but not these stakes.
Yes, I guess One player became Won player.
I always cover the table.
That's impressive in a capped game
if im putting villain on AJ more likely on turn based on that big raise, the river of Kh is the best card to bluff on, as you can represent Jx of heart and all kinds of sets and two pair that turns full house on river, with the J of heart here I will certainly bluff opponent off AJ and KJ QJ TJ