US & UK Come to Unblock Bab-al-Mandab Strait.
Вставка
- Опубліковано 15 січ 2024
- 📊 If you appreciate our work please leave a comment, thumbs up, or both. Your help will improve the algorithm and allow this video to reach more people on UA-cam.
📌 Support GTBT on Patreon! / gtbt
➡️ Paypal: www.paypal.com/paypalme/GoodT...
Production: Hubert Walas
Research & analysis: Tomasz Rydelek
Video production: Łukasz Szypulski
Voiceover: Hubert Walas
Music: Arcadia - Cody Martin
Sound realisation: Dominik Kojder
Business inquiries:
goodtimesbadtimes@lighthouseagents.com
🗺️ Maps: aescripts.com/geolayers/?aff=90
⚪ GTBT Polish - / @goodtimesbadtimespl
🟤 GTBT на русском: - / @goodtimesbadtimesru
🟣 GTBT France - / @goodtimesbadtimesfr
⚫️ GTBT Deutschland - / @goodtimesbadtimesde
🟡 GTBT Україна - / @goodtimesbadtimesua
🔘 GTBT Arabic - / @goodtimesbadtimesar
🔴 GTBT Español - / @goodtimesbadtimeses
🐦Twitter - / hubertwalas_
📘 Facebook - / good-times-bad-times-1...
#yemen #iran #usa #unitedkingdom
📊 Please leave a comment, thumbs up, or both, if you appreciate our work to help improve the algorithm.
📌 Support GTBT on Patreon! www.patreon.com/GTBT
➡ Paypal: www.paypal.com/paypalme/GoodTimesBadTimes
There seems to be an error at 4:50
You have many hands.
This attack its related to the IStrael war! why you have a title that is wrong? you are biased the latest videos...
Seeing as Egypt heavily relies on the canal as a source of income, we might see some trouble for the stability of the country if this persists.
I highly doubt it
Doubt it
Possibly, Suez canal tariffs represent a growing (+20.3% in the last year) industry and trade volume through the canal, up as well due to Russia's war in Ukraine and fossil fuels traveling more through the canal. Egypt made $8.8 billion in tariffs specifically through the canal last year, representing a little over 2.25 percent of the country's entire GDP. If that were to 100% disappear, well I think their GDP would drop by more than 2.25 percent. Low use in ports has an effect on GDP in a specific region, but dereliction can be devastating (14% of Ukraine's grain GDP came from ports on the Black sea, for example.) I think the Houthi's can be mostly dealt with, at least beaten back to where they no longer threaten shipping too much, but it remains to be seen what will happen to Egypt's economy. There's good reasons for their recent foreign policy aims.
@@4UsualityEgypt is highly unstable and one of the most heavily endebted nations to the IMF. The Suez is a critical life line of Foreign currency reserves. While comparing 2.5% to 100% is easy you must remember that the vast majority is internal production and consumption. The foreign trade they earn is important, considering they have a trade deficit. Losing any foreign currency income hurts them massively. As a portion of foreign rate that 2.5% is sizable. The houti blockade is also impacting consumer goods in Egypt making the price to import much more expensive which means more money is spent to buy less goods increasing their already bad inflation. It also means they have to spend even more foreign currency on imports increasing the deficit which increased 10.5% just last year.
@@wheneggsdrop1701 Foreign currency influx due to international business in the canal is a good point as well, good discussion points
Wasn't this situation the whole point of every major nation having a military base in Djibouti?
True
Very good point!
I remember that video
No, they have the base there to block the straight if they need to, not to unblock it 😂
But yet It's up to the US or UK to keep the international trade route open.... 🤔
I'm not an isolationist by any means. However, I find it extremely frustrating that the countries hurt most by disruption of Red Sea trade are not only not assisting in defending their own economies, but they're coming out against the US defence of their economies. The Saudis, Gulf States, Egypt, and China all gain the most, but happily sit on the sidelines and criticize.
I'd like to see the US call their bluff; say "defend the Red Sea is on your own". When their exports collapse and economies suffer, they'll beg the US to help, and hopefully join the coalition.
I bet the US gets literally no direct trade through the Red Sea
Do you want China to support Israel's invasion of Gaza? Wasn’t the Red Sea incident caused by Israel’s invasion of Gaza and the United States’ support for Israel’s invasion? Europe and the United States have always carried out colonial-type operations, but in the past they were direct invasions by force, and now they are just ideological colonization. Yemen did not attack Chinese ships, and China does not support Israel
Probably true that the US gets no direct trade there, but the US probably would get hurt from China/Iran getting control of that route. Also, damaging european economies would isolate the US from its allies.
It's more likely they would turn to another power, not the US, for a solution. China wants to be seen as the world's negotiator - giving them this would further strengthen their position in the region.
I don't know bout direct trade, but the thing about international commercial shipping is that there's knock-on effects. There's only so many vessels and a limited capacity. So if 30% of global trade goes through there, and they have to be diverted, and for simple math let's just say it takes twice as long to make the detour around the Cape, then that effectively means global shipping capacity just shrunk by 15%. So even if there isn't any direct trade, those ships taking longer to make their ports of call affects costs and rate of all other shipping.
Plus, there's American multinationals that manufacture in Asia and export to Europe, which are American tax dollars.
@@mattbowdenuh This only affects American hegemony and America's ability to harvest global wealth. The currency settlement of international trade should be diversified, otherwise the world's wealth will always be harvested by the United States. Of course, the United States is definitely not willing to lose its ability to harvest global wealth, so it must defeat the United States in the war.
You can tell how important this strait is for China and Russia that they haven’t condemned the US attacks on Houthi rebels
Why would they?
Thought Putin called it a war crime, ironic…
@@YourSocialistAutomaton because they love to condemn US “intervention” in Taiwan and Ukraine
@@YourSocialistAutomaton because usually russians fund various terrorists groups.
A good & useful summary of why we are, where we are! Clearly only ground intervention could stop them - but what Western country has the nerve for that..
Also no one country in the west is affected enough to invade (there is other routes to and from Europe). The country most affected is Egypt since it makes $10 billion a year from sues canal. If anything nations will arm the government group against the Houthi.
You said nerve, i think the word you’re looking for is money.
@@jacobjones630 West has enough money to easily invade. Especially, for a small country like that.
@@jacobjones630 I don't think money is the problem but rather internal and international perception of an intervention. Being perceived as a warmonger who risks the life of soldiers on foreign soil could lose you the next election.
A punitive expedition is what that region needs for sure.
Thanks again man! Great content! This world is escalating very quick!
4:55 STREAMLORER SUPREMACY!
Thanks man! You do great videos, I really have something to watch ❤
Keep up the good analysis!
I cant believe I found a video on youtube that provides info without a narrative clearly embedded. An effort to tell the story as it played out, matter of fact. Thank you.
Europes inaction here is embarrassing
Probably it’s a matter of time 😢
Yeah but don’t you see how many idiots criticize nato for defending the right of navigation? They are acting like nato is starting a war with yemen for no reason
Last time I checked, The UK was quite firmly placed in Europe.. ;P
Several European countries are sending ships
@@henrikskjoldenBritish people may disagree with that.
Thank you for being one of the very few responsible ones to point out that the UK and US did not strike Houthi rebels in Yemen, they struck back at them. Enormous and critical difference.
Right as opposed to the strikes we did the previous decade against them unprovoked 👍
How you can be on the side of evil is beyond me @jacobjones630
No. You are deliberately attempting to shift the responsibility and attention away from the current situation.
You are also being deliberately provocative by claiming that previous strikes were "unprovoked", ignoring the fact that terrorists with proven aggressive actions and intents were the targets in the past.
People want to go against big powers hitting smaller powers, fair enough, but this huge group started it!
@@jacobjones630Marshall islands, Cyprus? Oh wait you don’t know what you’re talking about
As always, your narrative and info are top notch and appreciated. Keep up the great work and thank you.
Thanks for the video GTBT. Feel better Hubert!
Great video!
Thought I rewinded by accident when I heard “the houthis swept through Yemen like a steamroller”
excellent as always
I cannot understand how european countries can sit on the fence on thr issue
Look at the map it doesnt take a genius to work out its the trade life line of europe
Also look at the map its not the americans dont need to do this at all. They are doing europe a massive favour to be there at all
Europeans have sat on their hands with ukraine as well, they know old Uncle Sam will do all the heavy lifting for them.
europe dont want to start a nuclear war
@@moali8434 huh nw with who
@@moali8434 With Yemen?
@@jacobjones630 Not true. In absolute numbers the US has sent more weapons to Ukraine but in relative terms compared to GDP the Europeans have gone much further than the US. Think a second before you make such tentative claims.
Thanks!
Denmark is also intending to send a Fregate to the Red Sea during January because Mærsk is our company, but as far as I know we didnt have it ready yet.
Thank you all the support is helpful, Denmark is one of the few Western European nations, along with the Netherlands, and Norway that continually shows a friendly posture towards sea operations and it's not unnoticed
First with the F16s, then with sending a Frigate to assist with operations. Plus, the leading edge of technology for renewables. The Danes are a great partner and punching well above their weight.
Maritime exports account for about 1/4 of our GDP, so we have high stakes in it, too@@benjaminwinchester3408
I still don't understand the decision by the Houthi government. Do they not have an economic advisor? Attacking any commercial vessel will increase cost of shipping not just for Western nations, but all nations, including their own. This decision directly increases the cost of consumer goods for their citizens. And for what? A recruiting campaign for more soldiers in their civil conflict? Because they already know any missile launched at a war vessel will be swatted down, so it's a pointless venture.
Why is an ideological belief more important than the well being of their citizens in their mind? That's your top priority as a government: protect your citizens and their well being. That decision makes no sense from my western perspective.
Your view is too simple in my opinion. As a realist would say, a state looks for survival and power and they have an opportunity here to be influential in the global scale for support maybe not the government (we will see after what happens) but also for their cause. From your point of view it doesn't make sense, but that's not theirs. The international arena is a clash of ideas, values and resources that transform into a dynamic balance of power.
Germany is sending a ship in februrary which is sad ... but the conflict seems to be going on for quite some time.
why is that sad? its ok to bombard a country just because they protest the killing of palestinians ?
Maybe its the Only one they have 😂😂😂
@@alb7568 We have some of the most modern electrnic warfare ships out there they where even part of carrier strike groups in the past years so dont underastimate the German navy that much.
Ever since I’ve watched this channel for the last month I further understand geopolitics and the need to pay attention more this is important stuff the world needs to understand
Just remember even if you have deep criticisms of American foreign policy the one thing America does right is protect freedom of Navigation. Even America's worst enemy- North Korea is allowed to use the oceans at will and America ensures that every country can.
One of my biggest fears if America were to retreat from the global stage would countries like China and Russia allow a country, they do not like to freely navigate the world's oceans?
It depends on if they can even patrol that. Neither have America's force rpojection abilities, especially Russia. China trying to do so would inevitably invite resistance especially if they did this to any of their neighbours which would kill support.
I don't think either could dominate but it could kill free trade if they chose that route with countries neeidng to form pacts to protect themselves and aggressive standoffs and build up.
“ You don’t know what you got till it’s gone”
I'm anti interventionalist generally but the US has been defending sea trade routes since before our independence, our Navy was created for that purpose, we helped defeat the Caribbean Pirates, defending global trade is an American founding principle.
I don't believe in America being the World's Policeman, where we try to bomb nations into being a democracy like Iraq. That said, I don't believe in isolationism either. There has to be a balance somewhere.
TBF as of now, neither Russia nor China have sufficient naval assets and power projection capacity to take on the role that the US plays as protector of global shipping.
excellent!
If neither Yemen government, nor Saudis were able to root out the rebels, then the US will not be able either. But it will also not lead to further escalation, because all escalation in the whole Middle East is directed entirely and only in Iran. Thus it is not American action, that decides if things escalate, but Iranian leadership that decides. So the answer to the initial question is: neither, unless Iran wants so.
The goal of the US would not be to take control of the region or eliminate the rebles but only to prevent them to hit shipping ship. It's not the same game.
Wtf is usa doing in saudi iraq syria... they are the invaiders not iran
@@hip2511 to stop your Islamic/communist friends taking over the world , tough pill to swallow for you
@@hip2511 Because those respective countries allow US military bases to be their. Please, learn what an invasion actually is.
@@supremecaffeine2633 ye iraq allowed after usa peacfuly entered their country 🤡🤡 and syria too
swept through Yemen like a stream lore:) I like all your video, i can see how much effort are being put in order to have this quality. Thank you!
thumbs up.
4:54 "Within four months, the Houthis swept through Yemen like a streamloller. Within four months, the Houthis swept through Yemen like a steamroller."
Props for forgetting to edit out the bad take 😆
This sort of thing is why I've made a habit of saying "cutitoutcutitoutcutitoutcutitoutcutitoutcutitoutcutitout" every time I make a mistake I deem worthy of cutting lmao. Audio spikes make for easy editing.
8:15 if they say they're attacking ships linked to Israel and then attacking that boat with said link (regardless of how tenuous you think that link is), how do you come to the conclusion that their actual super secret goal is to block the bab al mandab strait?
Because some of the links are nonexistent, and because the Houthis called it a blockade of the strait themself
I had a similar thought. There's just no way to know what they'll do. As the video emphasises, this isn't a massive cohesive military. Any one of them could launch an attack on any target. Whether the targets are confirmed or completely random, nobody knows.
This feels like a Clancy novel.
It's like Dena vu
Egypt desperately needs that trade route for its economy. Not surprised they are still too weak to assist in even regional defense.
Egypt has an internal problem with political, extremist Islamism (Islamic brotherhood). They narrowly escaped majority govt by them, so they have to tread carefully on who they align with. The establishment want to do business and develop (west) but they're still an Islamic country.
Try being surrounded by chaotic neighbors who also happen to be in a permanent state of civil war and, for the cherry on top, take in refugees from such unruly neighbors while trying to make ends meet for yourself and you'll understand how tough it's been for us...
We may seem weak by your standards, but let me remind you that amidst all that madness that's been taking place all around us since the 2010s, we never descended into civil war and became an international playground for militaries to try their toys in and we never escaped our country and plagued the world with "Egyptian refugees"
It's because of one simple ingredient that's literally keeping us stable and strong, by our regional standards forced upon us, our homogeneous identity and nationalism that are deeply ingrained in us instead of the tribalism and sectarianism that's been plaguing our neighbors
The problem is not just, that the ships take longer around africa, its, that if they take double the time, we cut our ship fleet in half so transport will get way more expensiv and with this everything will get more expensiv and this in a time in wich the western eco is already hit hard by corona, war with russia and bad governing.
Greetings to the algorithm.
Do you think V Putin has a good reason and the perfect time to open the arctic shipping route at he's been planning.
10:30 You say that France gave a warship under American command but also say that France didn't give any ship
Tickle the post!
I wonder what happened to General Yaya? I miss his press conferences
Houthi keep their mouth shut about the Uyghur genocide. Wonder why? 🤔
whataboutism in its finest. Congrats, hasbaraman, it is the best you can do.
Because the Jews aren’t in China.
@@Truspio Sure, just attribute glaring inconsistencies about their fake justification and call it whataboutism. This is more about Houthis using this excuse as a power grab in the region than actually anything about Islam.
Also, Hamas etc are Sunni, whom they have never given a F before.
I wonder if you are half as skeptical about US interventions?
bcos Uyghur genocide is a western propaganda
"Freedom of Navigation"
4:53 Whoops
an anticipated exceptionally hot El Niño 2024 certainly won't help stabilize the world
Ah shit, here we go again
4:54 It's not too late to cut that out =P
Sand makes fine glass
👍
What’s the name of that beat playing in the background, MOF how made it.
Potatoe joe was on his knees begging the Grand Ayatollah to stop it... 10% for the big guy!
What happened to the blowfish, is that not canon anymore?
Thank you . ( 2024 / Mar / 17 )
Also Greece send a boat for some reason
"up the ant" lol pretty sure you meant "Up the ante"
Regardless, awesome video
But if Nukes don't actually exist?
The Hoochie Movement dont want no *Smoke* 😂
This is just the start. Yemen issues will pale in comparison to what is coming.
Then there's THAT issue in the background that is biodiversity and climate collapse. It's unstoppable now
@@toyotaprius79 That's been happening for millennia.
Music name?
Ahh the Middle East. One part of planet Earth the world could defiantly do without.
Right?
Fuck around and find out. Except it’s America that is going to find out.
I really hope axis of resistance is a word the west came up with because how the hell do you justify calling yourself an axis and not think you’re the bad guy😂
How do people call themselves the good guys, while LITERALLY supporting a group that committed terrorist attacks on a music festival?
because axis is not a negative word in the dictionary
They are about to find out.... never F with someone's money.
I take it their uniform has a required hoodie.
At minimum, it gives the respective navies an opportunity to play with their toys in real time. 😅
Word is, now even Russian oil tankers have to follow Chinese ships, and go around the Cape of Good Hope. And the fact that Qatar's LNG shipping to Europe cannot go thru the Red Sea either. Houthis are not for Muslim solidarity.
Weebs doesn't know anything about geopolitics lol besides Russiaan tanker can go through artic ocean
as usual terrorists who never follow their principles
Perhaps America needs to rethink the special relationship.
I think it is time to teach a lesson to the mastermind behind all of this: Iran.
Okay buddy. Let's see your almighty genius plan on how to 'teach Iran a lesson.'
Well, US and allies need to get their crap together now. This issue is no laughing matter.
10:11 You IMMEDIATELY contradict yourself about France's participation.
4:56 love me some streamloers
Yemen Houthis said, that they will not attack China's, Russian's and Iran's ship's . Very interesting 🤔
Im really starting to think WW3 is looking like a real possibility.
It’s a relatively minor extension of what can be seen as a regional conflict at most. Far too soon to start doom-mongering about world war 3. If I had a penny every time someone predicted world war 3 as a result of some relatively minor incident I would have been a millionaire years ago
Iran steps in the game
I didn't know that Iran could transport weapons to the Houthis across Saudi territory as shown in your video.
Thanks.
Very informative.
Freedom Navigation>Freedom Palestine😲
US & UK Logic
Freedom?
The Houthis are gonna FAFO
Im curious how Russia would have responded if the anti-ship missle hit the russian oil tanker.
I don't honestly think they could respond in any material way
theyd frame ukraine and west
They wouldn’t react their navy is garbage
Why not France, Germany etc
Freedom of navigation is nonnegotiable
But blockading Gaza for decades is fine right?
Western white hypocrites 😂😂
Raaah 🇺🇸🦅🔥🔥🔥
Babylon the great is getting ready for her judgment...
What role do you think Saudi Arabia and Egypt might play in this situation? Could they take decisive actions that would shape the outcome?
Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are both client states to the US and Israel, c'mon
Egypt should be a part of the intervention, but the country is unable to conduct war or cooperate in any meaningful way. It should be a powerful country but they are as incompetent as most other Middle Eastern militaries. Saudi Arabia could not stop the Houthis anymore than UAE.
Idk, but as an Egyptian; I believe we should be taking a firm stance against Houthi piracy in the Red Sea since they threaten our very own strategic depth; if they're left to do their nuisance unchecked, that would severely hurt our Suez Canal revenues....
Saudis, however, Idrk but I don't trust them as much as I do not trust all of our neighbors to do something wise for once
Saudi Arabia and Egypt are ok with hutis and Iran
@@moali8434 That would be absolute madness and literal suicide!
Houthis And The Blowfish.
The US better not be embroiled in another Middle Eastern country for the next 20 years. I don’t think the US citizens can stand such pressure.
I don’t think the US citizens have much of a say regardless
Wow, the US administration really knows how to make a statement! Ignoring those pesky folks for half a year and then generously giving them a heads up before launching missiles. I mean, who needs immediate action when you can wait around and give warnings, right? Such a powerful display of determination!
Uk strike aircraft took off from cyprus and had to fly hours to reach yemen. They already knew the strike was coming around when it was announced. More importantly, it doesn't matter. The targets were bunkers and hangers holding missiles and launchers. Are they going to put their bunkers in bunkers?
Restraint and diplomacy should always be tried first before immediately charging in headlong.
Otherwise you end up quagmires and end up being the asshole. The US tried to do it your way, and it ended up costing almost a million lives
@@blackwatertv7018
Initially, my perspective was limited to history and the continuous self destruction witnessed in the Middle East over the past 2000 years. However, given this new information, I believe it is worth considering your approach of resolving conflicts through the strategic use of "hugging it out" and the spreading of "positive vibes".
The US administrations actions was nothing more than to save face.
Also don’t forget that blinken took them off the terrorist list
so they can’t end their own civil war, but still want to attack the entire world??😂
Unfortunately, IMO, the international coalition is doomed to fail and Red Sea will cease to be available for free navigation, because the party which is capable of taking decisive actions necessary to neutralize Houthi capabilities (US) has no real stake in keeping the sea route open and those who have stake are either in denial or incapable of taking decisive actions.
The path of least resistance is for world trade to adjust without Red Sea.
You say that now, then you’re crying about how food just got x300 more expensive.
Also keeping maritime traffic open and free is quite literally one of the kind of the USN and it comes with being a super power
Nah, keeping the seas open for all has been a long standing doctrine of US foriegn policy. We've been doing it since the 1800s, and i doubt that will stop.
@@Bluelyre While true, it's also true that US currently has no willpower and international support to launch a full military invasion against Yemen -- let alone risk another one with Iran. They wouldn't be able to actually secure Red Sea with practically symbolic missile strikes.
I'm suspecting (and hoping) that we only have a few big pushes left until enough is enough and Israel is silently told to settle for some sort of peace. That is the only way Europe could avoid price hike for everything (as even if US decided for war, one thing for sure is that it's IMPOSSIBLE for it to be quick -- thus the unavoidable price hike.
China gets a free pass lol
iran almost attacked USA in iraq.
So far it's just airstrikes. Any chance Uncle Sam is going to put boots on the ground?
Absolutely not. It’ll be air strikes only.
Very unlikely imo unless the Houthis do something crazy to escalate and give a justifiable causus belli for the US. Like the video said, it's an election year for Biden, whose poll numbers aren't looking particularly strong at the moment, and the US populace in general is pretty war weary overall, so it's unlikely Biden would escalate unless he had no choice. And the US can't pressure any other regional ally to put boots on the ground either. So it'll probably continue as naval/aerial tit for tats between the US and the Houthis until the Gaza conflict ends
Not a chance.
We don’t need to do,
i dont think they gonna bother, bad experience with mountainous desert 😅
The common denominator for all Wars?.........................yes / hate to say this but end time prophecy there will be 3 Wars, Ukraine one, Israel 2nd, whos the third????
No Imagin each strike was nuclear... don't touch our boats hadjis
They did worse, now Yemenis are even madder, without ground op nothing will change
Ah yes... "The Thatcher Maneuver"
A classic British tactic!
a comment
Freedom to Palestine, Defense for the Jews.
Operation: Prosperity Guardian
soon: Operation: We are totally not the baddies
Another great piece of content by Good times Bad times team, however the Houthis didn't carry attacks on every commercial ship, they actually stated that they won't allow ships heading to israel through the red sea and bab lmandab cross unless palestinians have access to food, clean water and other medical necessities and that's a main point you should have mentioned. Just to clarify how and why did the Houthis get involved in this from the first place and why due to the Israeli war crimes and american blind support soon the whole region might jump into chaos. You can't commit war crimes on neighbors and not expect anyone to fight back. Thanks again GTBT.
Why not to come and protect Black and Azov sea freedom of navigation ? There was a plenty of time
Simple, international law doesn’t allow warships through the Bosphorus strait unless the country has a Black Sea port something neither the UK nor the US possess
And that is the bargaining chip Turkey uses to play NATO and Russia against one another, such as when they threatened to build a canal to the west of the strait thus allowing NATO through to the Black Sea without breaking international law so Russia panicked and paid Turkey to stop… until NATO paid Turkey to start the canal project again which Russia paid again to stop it, repeat over a decade or so. Those straits are Turkey’s life and a powerful geopolitical tool. The only ones that could protect the Black Sea trade and the sea of Azov are Russia or Turkey, neither of which are motivated to do so nor do they really have the capacity to truly do so should the other contest it
12% of global trade doesn't pass there I would assume
16:09 its we up the aunte but its pronounced aunty(i)