Alpha Moguls With Mohnish Pabrai
Вставка
- Опубліковано 24 сер 2024
- Mohnish Pabrai talks about the irrelevance of buying a stock outside the circle of competence, his love for realty stocks in Mumbai and how does he identify whats the right time to sell on Alpha Moguls.
Read: goo.gl/3BdX3X
For more Indian #businessnews, #financialnews & instant #stockmarket updates, Subscribe #BloombergQuint here: bit.ly/BQUA-cam
Subscribe to BloombergQuint on WhatsApp: goo.gl/NX4KDz
Mr.Mohnish is so good that he is 1) very transparent 2) he applauds Mr.Raamdeo....generally one great Investor applauds another great Investor, is very rare....which is Good & pleasant.
very true
Video Summary:
Mohnish, why do you say don't buy stocks. Why?
MP: Buying stock is more complicated than people think. There is no effort required to buy and sell a stock.
To do well, one needs to research individual markets.
People ask: Should I buy AAPL?
MP: What is the market cap AAPL?
Most people don't know what you can buy the whole company for.
First thing investor needs to ask. Is this stock within my circle of competence.
WB says: That he cannot figure out 95% of businesss.
If someone says I understand AAPL and it is within my cycle of competence, then are you willing to buy a quarter of the company if you had so much money.
If answer is yes, then go ahead.
SO better idea is to buy the Index instead of a individual stock.
Take a small portion of salary and put it in index. Set it and forget it.
Stop Loss: A lot of tech experts, come on TV nd give stop losses.
MB: Stop loss is even used by investors, recommended by pundits.
We can make a lot of money in equity markets is because they are option driven.
Say you bought a house in Mumbai for 1 crore. Now you ask a broker everyday, what is the price.
He says listen idiot it is still one crore. Doesn't fluctuate much.
In a 52 week period, option driven market undershoot and overshoot by 30% in a year.
So if one day house goes down to 95 lakh one day, you don't sell it.
Investors need to make sure, stock is within your circle of competence, and is undervalued, then no need for a stop loss.
In US I need to be hit on head by 2/4 before buying a stock.
If I cannot describe the idea of buying that stock to 7 year old, or to the village idiot it is not painfully obvious do not buy the stock.
Even in rampant bull market many stocks are deeply undervalued, given there will be underpricing in an option driven market.
Ramdeo says I find value in growth, even if stock is not underpriced. In India we are definitely better buying a fairly priced growth company, versus a undervalued company with no growth.
MB: Important to buy in compounders.
How do you decide the compounder is over valued and you need to sell.
MB: Buying is complicated, selling is 10 times complicated.
When you buy you need to know what the growth engines are when you are buying the company.
The selling Q is more complicated. You need to look out in future , for most companied even the insiders do not know what the future holds. If we buy a confounder at value price, it is easy. A great company with great growth and management, give them some leeway. Dont sell when they are fully priced or over priced, Sell them only when they re egregiously priced.
One of my biggest mistake is to sell too early. I sell at 2 x, and after I got out the stock was a 100 bagger.
You have 10 bagger in RAIN. Why not get out?
Disclaimer: My views may change tomorrow. Equities go through long periods where they do nothing and then short periods where they rally fast. IN US from 1965-82 DOW was flat from 878-878. From 1982-99 grew a lot fromm 800 to 18000.
Similarly RAIN did nothing for 18 months, then went up.
I thought in 5 years I will make 5-10 time the invested amount.
Someone sent me a nice report on RAIN. Price I paid in 2015 at PE one, s the earning that it would generate in 2020. In last few years I have studied the business in more detail. The MOAT of rain is wider and deeper, better management than I thought they had when I made the purchase. A third of RAIN competitors shut down, given China shut down those companies due to pollution. That gave it extra tailwind. It has got some room to run. I won't recommend to buy at this prices, but I am not willing to sell either.
How do you find misprised opportunity?
MP: Real state is overheated. But as real state Guru Bruce Flatt says, he will buy the BEST flat in town, and buy when no one is interested. Bruce takes Capital in places where there is lack of capital. Places like Pune, Bangalore and Hyderabad have sprawled out. That is no good, Scarcity of space makes prices go up unreal estate. Only place in India where it can happen is Mumbai.
3 events in last 14 months affecting real state in India:
Demonitization sucked money out of real state, Then we had GSD and then we had the Trifecta with RERA.
Govt Standardized rule fro slum and society redevelopment.
This caused Real state to implode.
Previously, real state was black market driven industry in cash. Entire real state field in India has gotten distressed, High quality players who played by rules, are getting extra tail wind. Good guys are winning. 24 hour city in India city never sleeps, and most Mumbaikars won't live anywhere else than Mumbai.
Every structure in Mumbai will be torn and rebuilt in 30 years. It is happening now, but too slow for us to see. Real estate Brand matters. When you put life's investment in, trust matters. When you put toothpaste in personal space like mouth you need trust, More trust buying space of real state. In Ramdeo's terms we have 50 years runway.
I hope I am smart enough to to never SELL any real state in Mumbai.
Are things looking conducive for investing in 2018?
I look at anomalies as an Investor. Unreasonably cheap prices. RAIN was an anomaly at PE 1.
I don't see any screaming bargains currently. No Obvious undervalued areas in largest 200 companies in India. They are very good companies with still some tail winds.
But In India there are lot of companies under 500 crore, under followed, under researched. That universe requires digging. In this cess pool of useless companies, there are also, 50 and 100 bagger.
I am a man of leisure and take my time find the right equity.
GDP is growing to 6%. Ramdeo says that if economy grows at 7%, Banks grow at 14%. Asset managements today will grow at multiples of GDP management.
Ray Dalio, Sam Zell ( Am I being too subtle) good audiobooks to read.
I am not looking into Crypto as an investment. I bought BTC at 4k and sold at 17k, If CM is a skeptic on Crypto me too.
Always a pleasure to listen to Mohnish. He explain things in a very easy to understand way.
Every time i hear Mohnish, i learn something new. Thanks bud
Hugh collection of knowledge in just 30 min of video...Thanks Bloomberg
Crisp and clear Interview.Thought Provoking ..
dhanraj ts your name justifies your presence on this channel 😁👍
...NO IT WAS NOT ..crisp...''N''...clear What Language are you ...speaking...that''s fucking...jevberish'''...shit that you HEAR from...Telemarketeers'''
Ramdeo Agrawal is more tilted towards Phil Fisher, this man is tilted towards Warren Buffett...
Books 36:10
That's what we call wisdom...
Thank you
Good discussion. I love how he explained Rain Industries and Kolte Patil in his other videos and how he reaped a huge pile of profits from them.
Mohnish is just the best!
We need more of this kind of ALPHA MOGULS...
...yeah...in ...'' ENGLISH''''
I can't overturn tables but Indian like your interviewee
Valueable discussion
he is a really good interviewer !!!
Once it Doubled you couldn't get the rest 50x returns not 98 or 97 times
Amazing insight on Real Estate!
Superb interview, thanks bloomber
This Interview Was Awesome from Your side
Excellent, Thank you for sharing your knowledge
Very insightful conversation. Liked it thoroughly. Regular follower of this series. Keep the series going alpha
Moghuls.
Dynamics need
Rain is not raining
this guy is smart
Always a pleasure to watch Monish. Like his ling term view on the markets and stocks.
Stop loss trading investing
Excellent... Keep doing more interviews with this guy ..
May be same series which was done with ramdev 3 part series like that ..
Circle of competence the magic words of Graham...lol...maybe Margin Of Safety...however I wish I had his 2017 returns...
Great job neeraj... keep up the Good work.. May be some more episodes with ramdeo sir in near future
Tcs plays here sir
Neeraj is excelent.thanks
Excellent
Warren Buffett bought APPLE stock but I doubt it was in his circle of competence.
Have universal deals with gods
Hes very articulate.
Mohnish spends more time on the lecture circuit then he does on his funds. Just look at his twitter. It’s all tweets of him traveling. Pabari clones other investors ideas and then charges his LPs a fee for that. It’s so shady.
Dude go ahead and you also Clone his ideas and make money out of it.
Good one !
Bitcoin at 50k now...wonder what he is thinking.
Bitcoin is speculative , If price determines how good an investor you are then there were million buffetts in dot com bubble . The main focus of investing if Valuation of underlying asset , Bitcoin is paperless and worthless . Even if it goes to a million dollars , It's still speculative .
Like this there is life only in tails
His India fund is down 20% year over year for last 5 years
sumit arora do you have a reference for this claim?
Australia kicks to london
1.2trillion dollars
Benjamin Graham is the father of this investment philosophy....
6:57
9:25
11:30
12:30
14:10
15:10
16:24
17: 20
17:37
18:30
19:24
21:38
If media not handles the rain inds then rain is now 30 rs
Lata aashaa can understand si4
Am I being too subtle