Confidence Fades As APRA Caves Again... And Other Stories

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  • Опубліковано 9 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 117

  • @WalkTheWorldDFA
    @WalkTheWorldDFA  5 років тому +1

    Podcast edition at: episodes.castos.com/dfa/APRA-Caves.mp3

  • @TDubya811
    @TDubya811 5 років тому +16

    No one ever seems to remember all losses associated with buying/selling.
    Think many more would be selling at a loss if you included stamp duty up to 5% and agent/legal fees about 3% to buy/sell. That's before you even look at losses on renovations or furniture and opportunity cost of down payment, finance costs removers fees etc etc. You probably need to "make" at least 10% to break even in many cases.

    • @TDubya811
      @TDubya811 5 років тому +4

      @MrFourkinghellYou are delusional. Run your numbers again with (a) no price growth (b) price drop of 20%.
      With $1m house if the market drops 20% and you are forced to sell. You lost your $200k down, you lost your $50k stamp duty, you lost you $30k agent fees plus all the rest. Many people do renovations which don't add value. You could easily lose $300k - compare that with renting or median wages and you got a real big hole to dig yourself out of.
      Leverage works both ways. If prices go up it multiplies your gains but if they drop it multiplies your losses.
      I'll update my original comment to agent fees/ legal fees. Thanks for pointing that out. It's still a cost though!

    • @jameslovering9158
      @jameslovering9158 5 років тому +3

      @@TDubya811 "leverage works both ways" this is the key point, thanks for adding that.

    • @marcellevandermerwe6019
      @marcellevandermerwe6019 5 років тому

      @@AlienLivesMatter looks like you forgot that property values always go up and rental yields always exceed interest and opportunity costs. Also transaction, maintenance and any other ongoing cost or premium associated with owning a property should be aggressively ignored, because eeewww you must be renting.

    • @AlienLivesMatter
      @AlienLivesMatter 5 років тому

      MrFourkinghell glad I ain’t this guy. I bet there are mountains of morons like this.
      www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-30/more-australian-borrowers-falling-into-mortgage-arrears/11365288

  • @masteryoda498
    @masteryoda498 5 років тому +38

    How can there be confidence in the economy, when there’s no job security, high unemployment and underemployment?
    The Australian economy is on a downward trajectory.

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +6

      Master Yoda Same almost everywhere.

    • @badhabitz69
      @badhabitz69 5 років тому +9

      Australia becoming the Banana Republic that it was predicted to be!!

    • @kyliepechler
      @kyliepechler 5 років тому +11

      From what I've heard, the number of empty shop fronts seems to be steadily increasing.

    • @kitdesilva
      @kitdesilva 5 років тому +7

      Add oversupply to that & hey presto.

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +1

      Kylie Pechler Yes it is a sign of weakness but it could be temporary, though look in shops nearby to see how much trade they are really doing. If the open shops are quiet then it could be down to the local economy.

  • @andresjonmundsson2678
    @andresjonmundsson2678 5 років тому +3

    Brilliant...... my source of unbiased, factual and smart analysis and reporting. Lucky we have Martin and John when mainstream media are so hopeless!

    • @andresjonmundsson2678
      @andresjonmundsson2678 5 років тому +1

      Nope, not so.... this is analysis based on current data and Martin presents options of probability. Eyes are open mate..... you sound like a closed shop!

    • @andresjonmundsson2678
      @andresjonmundsson2678 5 років тому +1

      MrFourkinghell I look at the signs, themes, triggers, numbers and conditions. I am no expert, far from it. However, the main stream media are starting to report, albeit inaccurately, what Martin has been saying for a long time. The trade war is continuing and Australia is caught in between. Unemployment is a key lever in which the RBA say the economy hinges on. Since the GFC, I have learnt that mainstream media economic reporting is fake news, the real analysis from people like Martin provide people with the opportunity to make informed choices.

    • @andresjonmundsson2678
      @andresjonmundsson2678 5 років тому +1

      MrFourkinghell I can see you are an informed, clear thinker. You have good points. Time will tell. It’s a very emotional subject as people are invested. Good luck mate, if only we had a crystal ball!

    • @CookieMonster-wy4qb
      @CookieMonster-wy4qb 5 років тому

      MrFourkinghell 🔮🔮 mr fourkinghell would love his crystal balls back but his ex wife is in possession of them !

  • @CookieMonster-wy4qb
    @CookieMonster-wy4qb 5 років тому +12

    Martin the financial system isn’t busted its corrupted ! It’s actually working perfectly well for them !

  • @rexharrison400
    @rexharrison400 5 років тому +5

    Given that there are construction issues 'cracking' with another unit complex, it's a wonder banks have the confidence to lend on them let alone anyone has the confidence to buy one.

  • @davidlazarus67
    @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +11

    If consumer sentiment is 1% lower for 5 years ahead added to the last five years stagnation means Aussies are anticipating a lost decade, which will alter spending plans as they need to prepare for the fallout of a stagnant economy.

  • @turbostyler
    @turbostyler 5 років тому +22

    Can I refer APRA to ASIC to stop consumer harm in long term credit? A DFA sub aptly named APRA the Australian Property Re-inflation Authority. What a disgrace they are.

    • @turbostyler
      @turbostyler 5 років тому +3

      I just read the following in the AFR:
      Credit ratings agency S&P upgraded the big banks' outlooks to "stable" from "negative" and Macquarie's to "positive" from "developing".
      It said the move "materially reduced uncertainty over the Australian government's future policy" and "we now believe that government support is unlikely to diminish in the next two years".
      Reduced uncertainty over Aus gov future policy = pump prime the housing markets because the libs can't let house prices fall
      gov support is unlikely to diminish in the next two years = more unnatural acts ahead to protect housing markets

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +3

      Ahmed A Yes that is a good assessment of the situation. They are looking for more suckers.

    • @mjb6446
      @mjb6446 5 років тому +1

      @@turbostyler Yep, they are desperate scumbags.

    • @AlienLivesMatter
      @AlienLivesMatter 5 років тому

      Try all they can this time around is no stopping it.
      No amount of fraudulent lending or tax cuts can save Australia from the hangover of realestate investment mania.

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +1

      Jade S There is no way to tell whether this will work. It is not dependent on experts, it is dependent on your average home buyer falling for the BS. Some will get cold feet and wait others will take it as a sign of desperation and wait. Some will have seen how tight things have been financially and hold off for those reasons. It is the reasons for why people buy in now that will determine whether this is a temporary bottom or whether it has failed completely. That is dependent on ordinary people who are barely considered by most economists.

  • @johnl4469
    @johnl4469 5 років тому +4

    Thanks Martin, You're keeping us on our toes mate. Busy day :)

  • @johndouglass3010
    @johndouglass3010 5 років тому +12

    Thank Martin. So much work. You must be withering.

  • @rockonthelough5417
    @rockonthelough5417 5 років тому +5

    Watching all this unfold I'm really mad for the country I left in 1998. It didn't have to happen this way. Money ruins everything in the end - it's normally external money that ruins it too.

    • @rowbearly6128
      @rowbearly6128 5 років тому +1

      money isn't the issue. Exploitation by the rich..as ever..is the problem. Theft from the people, the privatization of profit and the socialization of debt. Peasants..we are still just peasants.

    • @soulfirez4270
      @soulfirez4270 5 років тому

      @@rowbearly6128 Yeah money is the problem , Having a private corporation be able to make money out of thin air to loan in return for real money ( money earned by labour and thus has given value to the bank notes they print which is the same thing a bank note has always been , a note of debt.A monetary system where it cant be made out of thin air actually requires you to create something to make money not just add 0's to your account and loan the extra at profit...

    • @rowbearly6128
      @rowbearly6128 5 років тому

      @@soulfirez4270 Those are regulation issues, and the result of taking the dollar off the gold standard. Money in and of itself is neutral. It just represents assets. The Neo-Con ideology is responsible for the slide into avarice.

    • @soulfirez4270
      @soulfirez4270 5 років тому

      @@rowbearly6128 So then you agree with me that money is the problem ( as in the current fiat money that has no limitation to its creation as it is not represented by any asset and as I pointed out is nothing more than a note of debt.

    • @rowbearly6128
      @rowbearly6128 5 років тому

      @@soulfirez4270 No. regulation is the problem. The regulatory bodies, Reserve Banking system as a private entity etc, so no I'm afraid I don't agree with you on this.

  • @jcisme
    @jcisme 5 років тому +13

    Why do banks needs to hold more capital when they can just bail in deposits ?

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +6

      Jeremy C Illusion of stability that’s all.

    • @reckoner1015
      @reckoner1015 5 років тому +6

      A more pertinent question is 'why do banks need to bail in deposits when all they really need is a worthy (read govt.) counter-party to invent all the reserves they need'. This is exactly what Barclays and Credit Swisse did loaning to Qatar to save their own balance sheets last time 'round.

    • @davidlazarus67
      @davidlazarus67 5 років тому +2

      Reckoner 101 Yes that was one element of their rescue. Barclays had a significant multi billion dollar bail out courtesy of the bail out of AIG. Without which it may have had to declare bankruptcy. Though those two elements meant Barclays were crowing about not needing a UK bailout, because they had significant boosts via the other measures.

    • @wrongthink1212
      @wrongthink1212 5 років тому +2

      Personally I highly doubt this is going to happen when it's far easier to steal in other ways....though it is odd that they passed that rule...

    • @jameslovering9158
      @jameslovering9158 5 років тому +3

      The "bail in" is all part of the game played when the reality is it won't be even close to enough, the Govt will be "forced" to provide the public funds once again.

  • @kyliepechler
    @kyliepechler 5 років тому +5

    "The whole financial system supervisory model is frankly busted" - that is certainly a very MILD way of putting it, Martin!

  • @hounddog7256
    @hounddog7256 5 років тому

    dropping interest rates is an indication that "currency" (not money) has no value anymore...

  • @melhoss6301
    @melhoss6301 5 років тому +4

    Using these poorly built unit losses as a barometer for the whole market is akin to using blockbuster shares as a measure of where the stock market is headed. I sympathise with these people but that was a poor investment from the start

  • @rockonthelough5417
    @rockonthelough5417 5 років тому +7

    I read the APRA relaxation news this morning and just laughed. Jeez, just let the market sort itself out. At least here in Ireland the credit taps were suddenly turned off so there was nowhere to hide...no way of trying to pull these stunts. Oz is just delaying the inevitable.

    • @rockonthelough5417
      @rockonthelough5417 5 років тому +3

      @Damian Yep, a total mess and Ireland still haven't touched the €200 billion debt they owe (paid €60b in interest over 10 years though!) yet new cars etc are flying out of the forecourts. It's why I'm saving to go back to Oz if the price is right (and no price is ever right for an apartment more than 4 stories high).
      My point is what sort of a mess would Ireland be in if the Boom had gone another decade before collapsing (which is what I think is happening in Oz). I guess they wouldn't have the housing shortage but it would have been offset by even worse negative equity.
      I work in construction related consulting and can see the same NAMA names appearing from 10 years ago madly developing sites in Dublin. I sat in meetings around 2010 where these lads considered NAMA some weird sort of badge of honor....if you weren't in it...you weren't one of the Big Boys during the boom. Worst case is Oz could have it's own form of NAMA to sort out the Apartment mess that's unfolding and I think could unhinge a bank or two...explanation here for the Oz readers en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Asset_Management_Agency

    • @rockonthelough5417
      @rockonthelough5417 5 років тому

      @ambidex0 Some of Ireland fell 75%. I'm sitting in one of the very buildings right now - bought at the discounted rate ;-)

    • @angusmac4482
      @angusmac4482 5 років тому +1

      @ambidex0 Clueless gulah. Dublin fell 59% over 6-7 years, on average, in real terms, i.e. some areas and properties fared much worse. Irish property peaked in Feb 2007 and fell only around 4% for the rest of that year, 9% in 2008 and then after the GFC accelerated to fall 18.5% in 2009. There were also a few mini rebounds along the way just to give people like you something to shrill.

    • @geoffvalero3516
      @geoffvalero3516 5 років тому +1

      @ambidex0 no ireland didn't have a debt to GDP ratio closing in on 200%. ireland "only" managed 160% at its peak. i sense a tone of desperate panic. failed to get out in time?

    • @rockonthelough5417
      @rockonthelough5417 5 років тому

      @@angusmac4482 ...Yes, I remember being surprised when I found out the peak was actually early 2007. It basically took the majority of the population over 18 months to suss out that the game was up...that time frame sounds similar to another booming country doesn't it !!

  • @marcellevandermerwe6019
    @marcellevandermerwe6019 5 років тому

    Why so many crystalising losses? Paper losses theory falling apart?

  • @richardpeychers4076
    @richardpeychers4076 5 років тому +1

    Primeminister New Zealand out of the blue has said banks need to double their reserves to $20 million, and since our banks are Aussie banks, perhaps the concessions given to the Aussie banks at their request by APRA as regulator (tail shaking the dog) will be offset by funds being acquired from NZ subsidiaries to cover shortfall in an event.
    Leaving Newzealanders to find the difference through the bail in( OBR) Open Banking Resolution.

  • @xpro2009
    @xpro2009 5 років тому +2

    My council is basing the rate my ex have to pay on the perceived value of the property. It is overly optimistic at this point. Can she force them to buy the property based on their price assumption/valuation and sue them if they won't?

  • @NaveedAly110
    @NaveedAly110 5 років тому +8

    Dear Martin, Please have some say for Aussie Dollar and its future as Dollar is hammered.

    • @petersuvara
      @petersuvara 5 років тому +1

      A lower dollar is much preferred. Australia is becoming a service industry country, so cost for service will be lower. Plus, export of resources will bring in more for the same amount. Definitely prefer a low Australian dollar.
      The only thing that's not to like is imports will go up and reduce retail consumption further.

    • @soulfirez4270
      @soulfirez4270 5 років тому

      ​@@petersuvara Where does the lions share of Australia's finished products come from ? Oh thats right there imported , so no the dollar dropping is terrible for Australian public . Who gives a fuck it helps foreign owned mining companies make a profit ( but not create more jobs to replace those lost as the public get screwed.

  • @Justin-yb6mf
    @Justin-yb6mf 5 років тому +3

    Martin, do you think the government may be pressuring APRA and the RBA to make decisions that prop up debt/housr prices? They both seem to have become pretty weak since the election...

  • @bondisteve3617
    @bondisteve3617 5 років тому +6

    Thanks Mr. Martin. Time to find the broom and lift the carpet and try to weasle out of where they are....eh?

  • @yusuf.alajnabi
    @yusuf.alajnabi 5 років тому

    So why did we even have a royal comission in the first place. Honestly an economy that survives on people getting into debt is not a good one. Remember 2008 gfc well if this debt binge starts again here in Australia we are going to see it worse than before. I feel sorry for anyone who has money saved at the moment.

  • @wingkeechan5329
    @wingkeechan5329 5 років тому +6

    Fall in value of units is probably from the $1 offers since last Xmas...

  • @kiyanriahi
    @kiyanriahi 5 років тому +3

    History repeats itself.

    • @charlesponzi9608
      @charlesponzi9608 5 років тому +2

      History will keep repeating until we change our beliefs. We must stop believing in government and fake money!
      The belief in “authority,” which includes all belief in “government,” is irrational and self contradictory;
      it is contrary to civilization and morality, and constitutes the most
      dangerous, destructive superstition that has ever existed. Rather than being a force for
      order and justice, the belief in “authority” is the arch-enemy of humanity. (Larken Rose)
      Fake money = fake politicians, fake economy, fake house prices, fake news, fake wars...End the Federal Reserve and ALL Central Banks.

  • @drsonicify
    @drsonicify 5 років тому +4

    In the property market, it’s a case of cavea emptor

  • @SuperKagara
    @SuperKagara 5 років тому +2

    Presumptions of basic ethical standards and conduct by APRA have been repeatedly disappointed in recent years, and this should alarm thinking people to greater attention.

    • @lyncsi
      @lyncsi 5 років тому

      They are the minions of short sighted governments and the banks, everything that they do and don't do is so obvious does anybody really think that these corporate instruments are here to protect us hahaha what a laugh but it isn't funny.

  • @danieladvantures8555
    @danieladvantures8555 5 років тому

    Martin , properties in Melbourne north begin the scenario of increase in price. Another boom in this affordable houses . It is worth to look to these suburb Roxyburgh park, Meadow hieghts, Coolaroo, Dallas, Epping etc . These suburbs show a booming hint.

    • @coasteyscoasteys
      @coasteyscoasteys 5 років тому

      Daniel
      What are prices on these areas.

    • @judetubemoran6275
      @judetubemoran6275 5 років тому

      Until most of the working home owners loose their job in the coming recession. The RBA doesn't cut rates to 1% because the economy is booming, a lot of people need to walk around industrial estates and talk to business owners, I don't think you'll get too many "business is booming" comments. The areas you mention will end up like so many Western suburbs of Sydney because the demographics would be similar.

  • @arthurtreibs4174
    @arthurtreibs4174 5 років тому +2

    Regarding the U.S. market; wanna bargain of the century, check out Zillow.com. More el cheapo haciendas in Vegas and Texas, just to name a couple, than you can poke a stick at.........HE HE HE HE HE ..........if 20 grand is too dear folks, there are millions of other abandoned ones all over the world including holiday resorts and almost brand new shopping malls.

    • @chrisyorke3013
      @chrisyorke3013 5 років тому +3

      In most US cities, you can buy luxury mansions for the prices ordinary Sydney apartments sell for. In Chicago, rental stock changes hands at prices less than people pay for garages in Paddington. For now.

  • @audie-tron9219
    @audie-tron9219 5 років тому +9

    Don't tell Martin but he spelt 'caves' wrong.

  • @robotstobor3388
    @robotstobor3388 5 років тому +3

    A next to S explains Cavea

  • @straitwayaustralia3431
    @straitwayaustralia3431 5 років тому

    I’d be taking money out of banks so they don’t get it with there bail ins

  • @anthonycresswell4690
    @anthonycresswell4690 5 років тому +7

    Stop socialising the losses. Build bigger capital buffers.

    • @reckoner1015
      @reckoner1015 5 років тому +2

      Capital buffers can't ever save banks from a bust in a bubble market- it is just a case of false regulation / try to look like you're doing something helpful when you know you created the problem.

  • @MatthewSummerton
    @MatthewSummerton 5 років тому +4

    APRA cavea again? 😜

  • @cyruschadrezzar
    @cyruschadrezzar 5 років тому

    NSW Farmers Association ua-cam.com/video/5uUTB1Ce8BI/v-deo.html 30% of aus total

  • @GlenisRetiredNZ
    @GlenisRetiredNZ 5 років тому +3

    arrgghh - 3rd

  • @deandownunder8091
    @deandownunder8091 5 років тому +2

  • @peregrinemccauley7819
    @peregrinemccauley7819 5 років тому +1

    I had trouble sleeping . I went to see my GP . She gave me some copies of DFA to take . One to two , five minute viewings , every four hours . Not to view more than six , five minute sessions in a 24 hour period . I put the first copy on play . I soon fell into a moribund stupor . My senses soon anaesthetised by the droll monotonous , monosyllables , parading as narration . Expensive consultation , but worth every penny .

  • @markmonfort29
    @markmonfort29 5 років тому +4

    First 😄

  • @marcellevandermerwe6019
    @marcellevandermerwe6019 5 років тому

    Why so many crystalising losses? Paper losses theory falling apart?