@ I didn’t mean to be cynical. I am excited that they are going to CES and hopeful that it could lead to the investment they need! But most of all, the opportunity is incredibly motivating at this difficult part of the process when there are a million and one problems to solve, big and small. They will make enormous progress in the push to be ready, I’ve seen it before in other contexts. And that progress is what I am most excited for, unironically :)
@@christopherbrand5360 cool. And I mean even if you weren't that would be cool too. It is a long wait. I just felt an undertone I wanted to counter. We all want sincere companies to succeed, and they are on the ball already for so long. Their stamina is amazing. Until now they have been an example of deliberate and calculated action moving forward, and that driving force is actually inspiring.
I just want to thank you for doing a wonderful job of keeping us informed. I got my ticket to CES and hope to meet you on the 7th. I'll be there for the day. Thanks again.
5% of the US population sounds quite optimistic to me 😅 I'd guess its more about 0,5 if not less and that's where I see the biggest issue for them. And that's why the CES should be very beneficial for them. Tonns of visitors, press coverage, UA-camrs and influencers - coverage of aptera should be great - I hope 😄
As most of the people in the comments section agree, I also agree that less than 1% of the population in the US knows about the Aptera. Globally I believe that number is less than a quarter of a percent. I don't have any official numbers because I was not keeping track, but I know that I've talked to more than 100 people about the aptera and only one of them out of the more than 100 knew Aptera existed and that one person was not sure what it was. Although of course, now that I've talked to those 100 people, they now know what it is or at least have a general idea, but yeah, less than 1%.
Same here. Less than 1% heard of Aptera. CES will be a game changer with its media coverage and CES enthusiasts aeeing Aptera and walking away to talk about it!!!
I’m n such an Aptera bubble, two years ago I already made an Aptera present for my son, who loves the car too, so my surroundings know about the aptera and I just can’t believe there are people who don’t! Weird and self absorbed, maybe. But knowing CES will be the introduction for many who will infect on their turn their kids is a gift I wish on everybody :D
Aptera should attend the January Scottsdale Barrett Jackson Auction. Outdoor booths start below $3000, and over 500,000 car enthusiasts from North America attend.
I think a lot of people have heard of Aptera, but nobody's taking them seriously until production begins. It's a real chicken and egg situation - they can't begin production without money and they can't get money till they begin production.
I talk about Aptera all the time. I've never encountered someone who has heard of Aptera. I spent 5 days in Carlsbad, California and even there. Nobody is talked to heard of them.
Less than 1% heard of Aptera. CES will be a game changer with its media coverage and CES enthusiasts aeeing Aptera and walking away to talk about it!!!
For Aptera to raise needed funds, they need to take risks to get exposure. CES will provide broad exposure. I hope Aptera is the show stopper. I’ll try to get tickets today. Let’s see if we can turn some heads. 😉🥳
Of the 200 people I've gushed about my advanced order that i placed who knows how many years ago (does it even mean anything any more?), zero knew what I was ranting about. I love everything about Aptera and hope some year I get an email that says I can buy.
Having a completed vehicle should also help in getting a loan. Really, for myself, they have spent a lot of energy looking for an investor that gives them the freedom to do what they want without any investor input. This has not worked for APTERA thus far. If the CES route doesn’t work out….THEY NEED TO PUT ALL THEIR ENERGY…into getting a loan. Start production and shoot for an IPO. The waiting game must end.
At issue is they have to debug PI2, test the modifications, make casting logistics for all the machines parts. Are you guys still hoping for crash testing and airbags? Where does that fit in PI2 development schedule? What do you think the breaking point is in the range of key specifications: Solar kWh/day across USA? Miles/kWh across different climates? Battery range across different climates? Guaranteed price?
With 3.3M being 1% of the US population, I kinda doubt that many people have heard of Aptera. The number is much more likely to be 1M people could tell you that it is a 3-wheeled solar EV. Crowdfunding seems to basically keep the lights on until there is a serious investor. Maybe CES will help with a serious investor but I can't imagine anyone putting down serious money at this point until the high speed test results are public. The Aptera can be a really cool looking vehicle that in theory should be ultra efficient but if that theory is not true, then it is just a cool looking vehicle. Hopefully we will get word that PI-2 is at the test track with results to follow shortly afterwards. I am not one that opens presents early but in this case, it would be a really great present for Aptera or release the results to the public before the holidays. Every day matters. If their burn rate is $2.5M / month that is ~$83,333 per day, 7 days a week.
@ddessert6 - I am totally biased for and all in for Aptera for the past 3 years. But I concur with your comments. I think it goes without saying that "high speed test results" includes "range verification test results". Even if the LE's range falls a bit short of 400 miles (even as low as 300 miles), it would still be a huge and critical selling point at this coming CES. Range figures must include the extremes (level ground highway cruising vs. sustained full throttle climb up a 40 mile incline vs. city stop & go traffic, and finally mixed city/hwy. If there is simply a single range figure, Aptera will lose credibility at CES. The CES audience is well aware of EV range variances. Giving these people a single figure for range would just turn them off - insulting their intelligence with BS.
@a5-30-31cts I agree that a full suite of tests is needed but as someone who tests products for a living, I'm not certain there is enough time to do a full suite of tests before CES if PI-2 is not ready today. A really valid suite of tests for this is actually a bit more complicated than one might expect. With a vehicle that is very efficient, there are things that can easily skew the results. If I were running the tests the entire suite would be tested no less than 11 times to get meaningful numbers. This is likely not going to happen but I hope that will share results that are not insulting.
Interesting that in the list of elected and appointed government officials attending from each US state, Michigan has by far the most listed at 7. See @3:00
I talk about Aptera to everyone I think has even a mild interest in EVs. Only once have I encountered someone who had heard about Aptera. He was an EV evangelist volunteering at an EV booth at a huge state fair. A few months ago, I talked to an old friend who is an engineering professor working on an EV book. He had never heard of Aptera. I think the percentage of people who remember hearing about Aptera is much less than one.
I was in charge of our annual EV Show in Wells, Maine last September, and I wore my Aptera t-shirt. I met several people who knew what it was, one of whom was also a reservation holder like me!
Im amazed that that a electric motorcycle credit, even if it is smaller, has not been implemented. For just having one passenger, for the most part, gas motorcycles produce a large amount of emissions.
So far I think of my 'investment' in Aptera as a donation to a cause I support. For it to be an actual 'investment' (a company with long term prospects) I want to see range testing results. Do they really get 10 miles per kWHr? That should be accomplished prior to CES. Preferably in December to raise buzz. If they want to 'wow' everyone, they need to drive it from Carlsbad to Las Vegas. Only 310 miles. If they have positive track test results, then that should be possible with confidence.
💯 As it will be great incentive for press attendees to visit booth (& report) with a pre-show press release "solar mobility range tests confirm simulations" …even if preliminary & approximate.
@@dougbrittsan-yn9sl - That would be better if they did because it would confirm the crash testing. Then Aptera would not need to crash test the three that they have planned.
I believe 0.1-0.5%. In the last year and a half I’ve lived in Denton, TX and have not met a single person who knew about the Aptera. On top of that, I myself only found out about them last year from JerryRigsEverything and I wish I found out about them MUCH sooner because I am obsessed. So even though I am a prime audience for their vehicle, it took me 4 years to hear about them (from 2019) even though I am chronically online and my favorite UA-cam topic is future technologies such as AI, VR, AR, Batteries etc.
We know there are about 50k reservations. I'll speculate for every one reservation, there are about 10 people who are taking Aptera seriously, i.e., they believe Aptera has a serious shot at making it to production. So, that's about 500,000 taking Aptera seriously. For each person taking Aptera seriously, there are 10 who have heard about Aptera, but have dismissed or forgotten, making 5,000,000. The U.S. population is almost 340 million. The 5 million who have heard of Aptera make up 1.5% of the U.S. population. The 500,000 taking Aptera seriously make up 0.15% of the U.S. population. The 50k reservation holders are 0.015% of the U.S. population. You can extrapolate to global numbers. The publicity around CES should raise awareness and serious interest by 10x. Hopefully, that translate to investment as well. Taking the prior amount raised of $135M and multiplying by 10, CES should lead to $1.35B (with a "B") in new investments, enough to take Aptera well beyond 6,000 vehicles/year. That probably sounds optimistic, so I'll speculate the $1.35B won't come in all at once, but the current $15M equity round will fill up quickly after CES. The amount of money ready to flow into Aptera investments will double with each new PI milestone. This is all assuming that the Aptera PI builds put on an impressive show at CES, with no faceplant embarrassments.
I'm sure the event will raise Aptera's notoriety. I doubt the event will raise meaningful cash for Aptera. I hope I am proved wrong. Update on my EV shopping, I paid for a new Chevy Equinox EV with all-wheel-drive on Saturday. I pick it up this week after the federal government applies the $7,500 to the deal. The retail price of the vehicle was $40, 590. All told, I received $13,000 in discounts and incentives. How could I say no to a brand new EV for $27,590 with over 300 miles of range? This was probably my last chance to get the EV tax credit, and I'm driving a 13-year-old car - it was either now or never. It's rated for 307 miles per charge, but I keep hearing that the Equinox gets much better range than stated by the EPA/GM. In an article today, I think I saw that it got 14% more range than the EPA had stated. My wife has a 2021 Chevy Bolt Premiere. It's great. We love it. It's the best car I ever bought. I got that for 47% off the retail price. I was shocked I found a deal that good on a new car the first time. I can't believe it I did it a second time. I saved $40,000 between the two car purchases! I don't think Aptera will come through to deliver my model out here in Rhode Island, necessitating all-wheel drive because of the hazardous winter driving conditions. I would need the off-road kit because I hit a lot of fire roads and mountain roads when I go backpacking. Besides, we have gargantuan speed bumps in Providence. I don't think the wheel skirts would clear either those rough roads nor our speed bumps. If Aptera ever produces that car for me, and it's anything near the price promised, and it's not riddled with problematic design choices nor quality control problems nor reliability problems, then I would probably consider selling one of the Chevys and getting the Aptera for myself. I had wanted that car for close to 20 years, and I was so excited when it was brought back from the dead that I even invested in the company to help it along. I think I'm picking up the Chevy tomorrow. Has anyone else recently given up and bought a different EV, at least to hold you over until Aptera might possibly make yours someday?
Congratulations. Hope it goes well for you. I don't have much screen time each day and saw my 1st Equinox EV ad today. 1st thought was, how does the trike stand a chance? Probably over $40K!
This writer 'joins your club' of 'an EV, an EV , my kingdom for an EV'!! to misquote the Poet. Since I will be dead {of old age} long before any Apterae grace the East Coast-- I sallied forth and got a 2020 Tesla Model 03, dual motor, long range. The price was good, the re finance loan was better than the EV loan I had, and the EV is ''Star Wars" level advanced. And I am being "Aptera Orthodox''- Chris Mc. drives a pre refreshed Model "S" the flagship EV of Tesla. Hmm! they seem to be paying him well enough!
Hi Steve, Right on as usual. 5% knowing is almost high. I rarely run into anyone that has heard of it. Even among my geeky friends. Let's face it; Elio was a scam from the start. Poor Arcimoto was just behind the curve and once they couldn't catch up they decided to run it into the ground. Does anyone know how to get the product deposit back from them?
I'll repeat this again, Elio Motors, Arcimoto and Canoo went to CES. All of that exposure did nothing for them. Think about it, if you need to pay your bills and tell those people that you'll pay in exposure dollars, how many would take that? I feel that this will be yet another event that the Aptera superfans show up at an event, make a video with their cameras, then talk it up to no end. Then post on social media that the event is a huge hit. I want to see a number of non superfans report on Aptera because then it's outside the Aptera bubble. At the end, come January, it'll be the same channels reporting to the same existing fan base, all in hopes that somehow Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or Steve Bezos will be watching and think, "I need to just give that company a bunch of money and let them do whatever whey want to do with it."
You're famous now!! If 1% of USA learns about you, what will you do with your fame? The CES crowd will learn about Aptera, discover AOC, and then hear you get top billing!
Sadly OPs point is too valid. Aptera did this in the UAE and it bombed. On the flip side they HAVE to do something to raise cash, and this is worth the time and money spent, just to attempt the Dream.
You could very well be right,, but, I would point out that the vehicles you mentioned are not NEARLY as compelling as Aptera. Ones a glorified golf cart, the other a gas powered tandem seat, tri wheel oddity, and the other just yet another van. Personally when I explain Aptera’s many benefits to people they are very very interested. I know a few “ CAR” guys, and they all without exception LOVE Aptera, wether gas or electric. Sooooo hopefully CES will give Aptera the exposure it needs to really get things going. I would argue that with its shape, and being completely covered in solar, it’s going to attract ALOT more interest than all the other vehicles you mentioned. Hopefully I’m right. We’ll see 😊 Remember,, Aptera is very very unique, and nothing like it has ever been attempted before. The future belongs to the bold.
@@artsmith103 Bill has now officially earned Curmudgeon-in-Chief via his AOC-recognized sarcasm/presentation and his not recognized background of actually doing something beyond a keyboard. There's that whole part of people who are so sucked in by the PT Barnum effect that they are unwilling to open their eyes and look at the blatant incompetence of the founders right in front of them. Aptera is not Yamaha-in-the-making, it's 2 wannabe's hoping no one blows up their spot. Keep trying...
loll, I've tried telling people about how good the Aptera is but when I mention it's a 2 seater and only 3 wheels, some will roll their eye's and stop listening.
@@billsmith5960 I spent a lot of time in China 2013 as things were improving quickly before China leader slammed the brakes on 2015. I saw 2 ton delivery dump truck trikes. Trikes for consumer mobility were completely out of favor. It was considered low class danger. No self respecting Chinese would be seen in one. The fanboys cool perspective is definitely regional.
Canoo did not go to CES as an exhibitor. They parked their vehicles outside and drove around as kind of like guerilla marketing because they were too cheap to pay for a spot.
I bought my Aptera CES hoodie and will be wearing it at CES to support them. Any of you other Aptera investors interested in meeting up in Vegas for lunch or dinner?
I'd like to meet some community members. I haven't set my travel plans because I am speculating Aptera may have an event in the days leading up to or following CES.
Rivians are recognized niw that they are relatuvely common. I own one and occasionally get parking lot questions asking what it is, but mostly I get comments stating they would like to buy one. I think once Apteras are on the road in any significant number they will be recognizable by the public. Until then, they will remain niche.
I think youre greatly overestimating the population thats heard of aptera and lucid. Just like how you were actually surprised most people have never heard of CES, including your wife haha
Demographics matter. In cities, maybe 2% of people have heard of Aptera. In rural and conservative (anti-EV) parts of the country, lucky to hit 0.5%. Relative to Aptera's small initial production, that's not bad and will not significantly hurt sells. I believe Aptera will sell everything they can produce during their first three years. The key is getting started with production and cash flow.
Your pretentious condescending attitude achieves nothing. It's over 10 miles from my place to a gas station. Almost every household has HEV, PHEV, EV, large battery appliances, or solar. Many with more than one. I've helped 3 gridtie and 1 off grid array get installed. Maybe there's a possible donor somewhere that just gave up on you?
Greetings, how can I get my financial investor who works with startups a ticket to CES? He will fly in, but I'm trying to get him a ticket. He invests both for himself and for his clients like me. I sent an email to Aptera vis the website already. I'm trying to expedite the action. Thanks, Steve or others for your help.
Another one. Let's take CES just 10 years ago and when select media got to drive the ultra efficient three wheeler. Right here n YT, the video still exists. Super simple to do yet I know nobody will do it or just make up claims about Elio but that's OK. When you are a superfan, you are required by law to ignore and make up claims as to how this is different. Search here, Driving Elio, the ultra-efficient car with three wheels - CES 2015
@billsmith5960 Thanks for that! I read all of the comments and in many cases, you could just change the names and it was just like an Aptera discourse today. It had Superfans and critics too. Lack of funding, pushed out delivery dates, and good used cars that could outperform it (the artsmith 103 argument). All there!
Nice report, but as you said all that matters is investment. Not trickle investment, but millions. Is CES a place for investors or for sellers of consumer goods?
I think you're living in a bubble, Steve and your estimates of who's heard of Aptera or Lucid are off by two orders of magnitude - my neighbor, who has bought several hybrid and all-electric vehicles over the past few years, hadn't heard of Aptera until I told him about it a couple of months ago
My neighbor has had a Lucid for 6 months. He was shocked that I knew what it was. I was the first person in that 6 month timespan. As for Rivian, a friend of mine is a mobile tech for them. He gets pretty zero questions on his swag he wears for work or even questions what Rivian Mobile Tech actually is. At least I have seen a number of Rivians, so I know they exist. With Aptera, unless you are on YT and searching for it or live in Carlsbad, forget people knowing about it. Look at Canoo or FUV. Same thing. Yet the superfans think it's huge.
There will be many youtubers at CES. Some that have been in the Gamma. Some will put Aptera on the itenary first. For others it might be easiest with them getting pictures on the way in. If it isn't out of the way. Come back later in the day, after hitting the key areas they need to see first. Also if there are decent crowds around Aptera displays. Passerby's will notice and might come back later? The crowd only has to be big relative to the booth. Not the others around it. If the crowd looks more dense than them, it will draw more attention. It is a natural instinct IMO. The complex is huge. Whatever is getting people excited will move throughout the building faster than a virus. Plus you will have walking billboards! Kudos to the designer. You can't not see that.
I hope that Aptera's display makes the point loud and clear that this is not a prototype because I don't think anyone who sees it will assume anything else.
Interesting perspective. Machined parts vs cast? Airbag status? Braking development status? Production line status? Demo hand built or production built? Final MSRP, delivery date, sales contracts? Performance spec results? Number of test miles, warranty?
5% of the US population is ~17 million. I bet it's much less than 1% (~3.5 million). Maybe one tenth of that. Maybe more have seen it (e.g., news report, social media advertising) but probably many of them have not taken notice or interest. I agree with the hard and fast external deadline. Very motivational. I'm still a bit curious about the location of the Aptera booth at CES. It is small and it appears that it is outside the main halls in a parking lot (not in a foyer). Granted, there are a number of other exhibitors in the same "Central Plaza" but I wonder how much traffic they'll actually get. What I don't know is whether this area has been renovated in the recent LV Convention Center upgrades and is now more of an actual plaza or "foyer" (as Steve has called it).
Elio never had a production intent vehicle! They never had a production engine for the vehicle. The engine they spent most of their money on was a failure!
Elio called their Pi builds, e-series (Elio built two of them that functioned). Same exact thing, different terminology. Most of their money was not invested in the motor either. Please read their SEC filings and you'll see.
Chris Anthony and Steve Fambro better not say anything politically against Gavin Newsom. That got Elon Musk's Tesla excluded from Newsom's EV incentive. Unbelievable but true.
How can it really compete with the current Model 3? It's $33K-ish for now vs. Aptera's >$40K if they make it. Not clear the latest Model 3 doesn't have greater range than the LE. TBD I guess.
@bobhellman8676 if Musk and the Orange man have their way the tax credit will end. But Aptera is unique. I dont think it is a Tesla competitor, and it doesn't have to be. I'd buy one for the efficiency and solar charge capability. Iwon'tt ever buy a car from Musk. I'd actually prefer the 250 mile Aptera, but let's hope that they can at least bring the LE to market. Also I don't believe it will be > $40k. If it is it will become much more of niche vehicle that it already is.
The most important thing about Aptera going to CES is the progress they will make preparing to present at CES.
i.e. the PI builds?
The cynicism is palpable and understandable but I think you’re wrong!
@ I didn’t mean to be cynical. I am excited that they are going to CES and hopeful that it could lead to the investment they need! But most of all, the opportunity is incredibly motivating at this difficult part of the process when there are a million and one problems to solve, big and small. They will make enormous progress in the push to be ready, I’ve seen it before in other contexts. And that progress is what I am most excited for, unironically :)
@@christopherbrand5360 cool. And I mean even if you weren't that would be cool too. It is a long wait. I just felt an undertone I wanted to counter. We all want sincere companies to succeed, and they are on the ball already for so long. Their stamina is amazing. Until now they have been an example of deliberate and calculated action moving forward, and that driving force is actually inspiring.
I just got my email saying I’m all good to go - can’t frickin’ wait.
I just want to thank you for doing a wonderful job of keeping us informed. I got my ticket to CES and hope to meet you on the 7th. I'll be there for the day. Thanks again.
My guess is that less than 1% of the US population has heard about Aptera (or remembers hearing about it). CES will be great exposure!
I was going to guess a similar number. 5% would be be around 16M.
Unfortunately, I think this is correct. Less than 1% is also my guess.
I was going to say much the same thing. Even 1% is a high guess. 0.1%??? Maybe?
Less than 1% is more realistic.
My guess is that less than 1% of the US population has heard about CES......
5% of the US population sounds quite optimistic to me 😅 I'd guess its more about 0,5 if not less and that's where I see the biggest issue for them. And that's why the CES should be very beneficial for them. Tonns of visitors, press coverage, UA-camrs and influencers - coverage of aptera should be great - I hope 😄
Yeah, 5 percent is is 1 out of 20 people. I know a lot of people and I haven't met one person who knows of Aptera.
As most of the people in the comments section agree, I also agree that less than 1% of the population in the US knows about the Aptera. Globally I believe that number is less than a quarter of a percent. I don't have any official numbers because I was not keeping track, but I know that I've talked to more than 100 people about the aptera and only one of them out of the more than 100 knew Aptera existed and that one person was not sure what it was. Although of course, now that I've talked to those 100 people, they now know what it is or at least have a general idea, but yeah, less than 1%.
Same here. Less than 1% heard of Aptera. CES will be a game changer with its media coverage and CES enthusiasts aeeing Aptera and walking away to talk about it!!!
The CES is the best thing Aptera could do at this time! The exposure will be priceless!
Excellent points Steve, well said. Thank You!
I’m n such an Aptera bubble, two years ago I already made an Aptera present for my son, who loves the car too, so my surroundings know about the aptera and I just can’t believe there are people who don’t! Weird and self absorbed, maybe. But knowing CES will be the introduction for many who will infect on their turn their kids is a gift I wish on everybody :D
Amen! Testify! 🎉
Aptera should attend the January Scottsdale Barrett Jackson Auction. Outdoor booths start below $3000, and over 500,000 car enthusiasts from North America attend.
My guess is also
CES is absolutely huge for Aptera. I have great hopes.
I think a lot of people have heard of Aptera, but nobody's taking them seriously until production begins. It's a real chicken and egg situation - they can't begin production without money and they can't get money till they begin production.
I talk about Aptera all the time. I've never encountered someone who has heard of Aptera. I spent 5 days in Carlsbad, California and even there. Nobody is talked to heard of them.
Less than 1% heard of Aptera. CES will be a game changer with its media coverage and CES enthusiasts aeeing Aptera and walking away to talk about it!!!
For Aptera to raise needed funds, they need to take risks to get exposure. CES will provide broad exposure. I hope Aptera is the show stopper. I’ll try to get tickets today. Let’s see if we can turn some heads. 😉🥳
Of the 200 people I've gushed about my advanced order that i placed who knows how many years ago (does it even mean anything any more?), zero knew what I was ranting about. I love everything about Aptera and hope some year I get an email that says I can buy.
Having a completed vehicle should also help in getting a loan. Really, for myself, they have spent a lot of energy looking for an investor that gives them the freedom to do what they want without any investor input. This has not worked for APTERA thus far. If the CES route doesn’t work out….THEY NEED TO PUT ALL THEIR ENERGY…into getting a loan. Start production and shoot for an IPO. The waiting game must end.
💯 And absent $60M, a roadmap to lower volume production which may actually encourage significant investment as now it appears to be $60M or bust.
Having a completed vehicle helps but doesn't get then to qualify. Just ask Arcimoto. Started production, sold vehicles and never got the same loan.
At issue is they have to debug PI2, test the modifications, make casting logistics for all the machines parts. Are you guys still hoping for crash testing and airbags? Where does that fit in PI2 development schedule? What do you think the breaking point is in the range of key specifications:
Solar kWh/day across USA?
Miles/kWh across different climates?
Battery range across different climates?
Guaranteed price?
@@billsmith5960 no guarantees in life…I wouldn’t want to apply for a loan , just showing them parts that have been ordered.
With 3.3M being 1% of the US population, I kinda doubt that many people have heard of Aptera. The number is much more likely to be 1M people could tell you that it is a 3-wheeled solar EV.
Crowdfunding seems to basically keep the lights on until there is a serious investor. Maybe CES will help with a serious investor but I can't imagine anyone putting down serious money at this point until the high speed test results are public. The Aptera can be a really cool looking vehicle that in theory should be ultra efficient but if that theory is not true, then it is just a cool looking vehicle. Hopefully we will get word that PI-2 is at the test track with results to follow shortly afterwards. I am not one that opens presents early but in this case, it would be a really great present for Aptera or release the results to the public before the holidays. Every day matters. If their burn rate is $2.5M / month that is ~$83,333 per day, 7 days a week.
@ddessert6 - I am totally biased for and all in for Aptera for the past 3 years. But I concur with your comments. I think it goes without saying that "high speed test results" includes "range verification test results". Even if the LE's range falls a bit short of 400 miles (even as low as 300 miles), it would still be a huge and critical selling point at this coming CES. Range figures must include the extremes (level ground highway cruising vs. sustained full throttle climb up a 40 mile incline vs. city stop & go traffic, and finally mixed city/hwy. If there is simply a single range figure, Aptera will lose credibility at CES. The CES audience is well aware of EV range variances. Giving these people a single figure for range would just turn them off - insulting their intelligence with BS.
@a5-30-31cts I agree that a full suite of tests is needed but as someone who tests products for a living, I'm not certain there is enough time to do a full suite of tests before CES if PI-2 is not ready today. A really valid suite of tests for this is actually a bit more complicated than one might expect. With a vehicle that is very efficient, there are things that can easily skew the results. If I were running the tests the entire suite would be tested no less than 11 times to get meaningful numbers. This is likely not going to happen but I hope that will share results that are not insulting.
Good job, I hope to see you there!
Interesting that in the list of elected and appointed government officials attending from each US state, Michigan has by far the most listed at 7. See @3:00
I talk about Aptera to everyone I think has even a mild interest in EVs. Only once have I encountered someone who had heard about Aptera. He was an EV evangelist volunteering at an EV booth at a huge state fair. A few months ago, I talked to an old friend who is an engineering professor working on an EV book. He had never heard of Aptera. I think the percentage of people who remember hearing about Aptera is much less than one.
I was in charge of our annual EV Show in Wells, Maine last September, and I wore my Aptera t-shirt. I met several people who knew what it was, one of whom was also a reservation holder like me!
If they could obtain an operating permit to drive the PI from Carlsbad to Las Vegas, it could be huge.
But I am dreaming.
as long as there's no problems encountered during such transit
With prior track testing they should be able to drive it to Las Vegas with a high degree of confidence.
@@jasonhochstrasser8657 to my knowledge, there has not been any track testing of the PI vehicles...yet
They already have it. It's called a mfg plate.
You really think a permit is what's holding them up?
Im amazed that that a electric motorcycle credit, even if it is smaller, has not been implemented. For just having one passenger, for the most part, gas motorcycles produce a large amount of emissions.
So far I think of my 'investment' in Aptera as a donation to a cause I support. For it to be an actual 'investment' (a company with long term prospects) I want to see range testing results. Do they really get 10 miles per kWHr? That should be accomplished prior to CES. Preferably in December to raise buzz. If they want to 'wow' everyone, they need to drive it from Carlsbad to Las Vegas. Only 310 miles. If they have positive track test results, then that should be possible with confidence.
💯 As it will be great incentive for press attendees to visit booth (& report) with a pre-show press release "solar mobility range tests confirm simulations" …even if preliminary & approximate.
@@gr8dvdpeak solar won't happen until summer, but some winter numbers would be nice.
It is critical. They can blame any underperformance on prototype status. I'll be shocked if they do it.
Absolutely not! Way too easy to get in an accident. Track test for whatever data you need. Can you imagine if they wrecked it?
@@dougbrittsan-yn9sl - That would be better if they did because it would confirm the crash testing. Then Aptera would not need to crash test the three that they have planned.
I believe 0.1-0.5%. In the last year and a half I’ve lived in Denton, TX and have not met a single person who knew about the Aptera. On top of that, I myself only found out about them last year from JerryRigsEverything and I wish I found out about them MUCH sooner because I am obsessed. So even though I am a prime audience for their vehicle, it took me 4 years to hear about them (from 2019) even though I am chronically online and my favorite UA-cam topic is future technologies such as AI, VR, AR, Batteries etc.
5% of folks knowing of Aptera is likely very generous. I would put it at much less than 1%. Much less.
Thanks Steve! CES will be great for exposure.
We know there are about 50k reservations. I'll speculate for every one reservation, there are about 10 people who are taking Aptera seriously, i.e., they believe Aptera has a serious shot at making it to production. So, that's about 500,000 taking Aptera seriously. For each person taking Aptera seriously, there are 10 who have heard about Aptera, but have dismissed or forgotten, making 5,000,000.
The U.S. population is almost 340 million. The 5 million who have heard of Aptera make up 1.5% of the U.S. population. The 500,000 taking Aptera seriously make up 0.15% of the U.S. population. The 50k reservation holders are 0.015% of the U.S. population. You can extrapolate to global numbers.
The publicity around CES should raise awareness and serious interest by 10x. Hopefully, that translate to investment as well. Taking the prior amount raised of $135M and multiplying by 10, CES should lead to $1.35B (with a "B") in new investments, enough to take Aptera well beyond 6,000 vehicles/year.
That probably sounds optimistic, so I'll speculate the $1.35B won't come in all at once, but the current $15M equity round will fill up quickly after CES. The amount of money ready to flow into Aptera investments will double with each new PI milestone.
This is all assuming that the Aptera PI builds put on an impressive show at CES, with no faceplant embarrassments.
So if you put a reservation down in December 2019 and told 5 people about it. Would that mean it’s exposure for 6 people today?
Unfortunately I won't be there. But those that are there, spread the word about Aptera while you are there. As for your poll I bet it is less than 3%.
I would say out of about 2dzn family and friends I've talked to about Aptera only one person
already knew about it !
I'm sure the event will raise Aptera's notoriety. I doubt the event will raise meaningful cash for Aptera. I hope I am proved wrong.
Update on my EV shopping, I paid for a new Chevy Equinox EV with all-wheel-drive on Saturday. I pick it up this week after the federal government applies the $7,500 to the deal.
The retail price of the vehicle was $40, 590. All told, I received $13,000 in discounts and incentives. How could I say no to a brand new EV for $27,590 with over 300 miles of range?
This was probably my last chance to get the EV tax credit, and I'm driving a 13-year-old car - it was either now or never.
It's rated for 307 miles per charge, but I keep hearing that the Equinox gets much better range than stated by the EPA/GM. In an article today, I think I saw that it got 14% more range than the EPA had stated.
My wife has a 2021 Chevy Bolt Premiere. It's great. We love it. It's the best car I ever bought. I got that for 47% off the retail price. I was shocked I found a deal that good on a new car the first time. I can't believe it I did it a second time. I saved $40,000 between the two car purchases!
I don't think Aptera will come through to deliver my model out here in Rhode Island, necessitating all-wheel drive because of the hazardous winter driving conditions. I would need the off-road kit because I hit a lot of fire roads and mountain roads when I go backpacking. Besides, we have gargantuan speed bumps in Providence. I don't think the wheel skirts would clear either those rough roads nor our speed bumps.
If Aptera ever produces that car for me, and it's anything near the price promised, and it's not riddled with problematic design choices nor quality control problems nor reliability problems, then I would probably consider selling one of the Chevys and getting the Aptera for myself. I had wanted that car for close to 20 years, and I was so excited when it was brought back from the dead that I even invested in the company to help it along.
I think I'm picking up the Chevy tomorrow.
Has anyone else recently given up and bought a different EV, at least to hold you over until Aptera might possibly make yours someday?
I think you did a phenomenal job both times and you'll have them for a long time. Congratulations!
Congratulations. Hope it goes well for you. I don't have much screen time each day and saw my 1st Equinox EV ad today. 1st thought was, how does the trike stand a chance? Probably over $40K!
This writer 'joins your club' of 'an EV, an EV , my kingdom for an EV'!! to misquote the Poet. Since I will be dead {of old age} long before any Apterae grace the East Coast-- I sallied forth and got a 2020 Tesla Model 03, dual motor, long range. The price was good, the re finance loan was better than the EV loan I had, and the EV is ''Star Wars" level advanced. And I am being "Aptera Orthodox''- Chris Mc. drives a pre refreshed Model "S" the flagship EV of Tesla. Hmm! they seem to be paying him well enough!
I spent about an hour putting together a meaningful complete solar array quote for you to demonstrate you could install 4.6kW array for
Seems like you made a couple of great decisions on your vehicles! Hopefully your Aptera investment will pay off too!
Hi Steve, Right on as usual.
5% knowing is almost high. I rarely run into anyone that has heard of it. Even among my geeky friends.
Let's face it; Elio was a scam from the start. Poor Arcimoto was just behind the curve and once they couldn't catch up they decided to run it into the ground. Does anyone know how to get the product deposit back from them?
I wonder if once Aptera starts delivery, Motortrend might consider it for the Car of the Year award? That would be great free advertising.
It will never happen. Aptera is not a car.
I'll repeat this again, Elio Motors, Arcimoto and Canoo went to CES. All of that exposure did nothing for them. Think about it, if you need to pay your bills and tell those people that you'll pay in exposure dollars, how many would take that?
I feel that this will be yet another event that the Aptera superfans show up at an event, make a video with their cameras, then talk it up to no end. Then post on social media that the event is a huge hit. I want to see a number of non superfans report on Aptera because then it's outside the Aptera bubble. At the end, come January, it'll be the same channels reporting to the same existing fan base, all in hopes that somehow Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or Steve Bezos will be watching and think, "I need to just give that company a bunch of money and let them do whatever whey want to do with it."
You're famous now!! If 1% of USA learns about you, what will you do with your fame?
The CES crowd will learn about Aptera, discover AOC, and then hear you get top billing!
Sadly OPs point is too valid. Aptera did this in the UAE and it bombed. On the flip side they HAVE to do something to raise cash, and this is worth the time and money spent, just to attempt the Dream.
You could very well be right,, but, I would point out that the vehicles you mentioned are not NEARLY as compelling as Aptera. Ones a glorified golf cart, the other a gas powered tandem seat, tri wheel oddity, and the other just yet another van.
Personally when I explain Aptera’s many benefits to people they are very very interested.
I know a few “ CAR” guys, and they all without exception LOVE Aptera, wether gas or electric. Sooooo hopefully CES will give Aptera the exposure it needs to really get things going. I would argue that with its shape, and being completely covered in solar, it’s going to attract ALOT more interest than all the other vehicles you mentioned. Hopefully I’m right. We’ll see 😊
Remember,, Aptera is very very unique, and nothing like it has ever been attempted before.
The future belongs to the bold.
@@artsmith103 Bill has now officially earned Curmudgeon-in-Chief via his AOC-recognized sarcasm/presentation and his not recognized background of actually doing something beyond a keyboard.
There's that whole part of people who are so sucked in by the PT Barnum effect that they are unwilling to open their eyes and look at the blatant incompetence of the founders right in front of them.
Aptera is not Yamaha-in-the-making, it's 2 wannabe's hoping no one blows up their spot.
Keep trying...
I think Steve is about to commission yougov for a EV awareness poll.
I would guess that about 2% have seen an ad or picture. But less tgan 0.5% could tell you what it is.
I think that you're too high by an order of magnitude.....
loll, I've tried telling people about how good the Aptera is but when I mention it's a 2 seater and only 3 wheels, some will roll their eye's and stop listening.
Same thing happened with Elio Motors. There's a reason why three wheelers are a niche.
@@billsmith5960 I spent a lot of time in China 2013 as things were improving quickly before China leader slammed the brakes on 2015. I saw 2 ton delivery dump truck trikes. Trikes for consumer mobility were completely out of favor. It was considered low class danger. No self respecting Chinese would be seen in one. The fanboys cool perspective is definitely regional.
Canoo did not go to CES as an exhibitor. They parked their vehicles outside and drove around as kind of like guerilla marketing because they were too cheap to pay for a spot.
Most people outside the EV bubble dont know about Lucid.
More; The BIG IF of this deadline depends on the parts being in hand and able to be installed in time. They are 'still waiting' for some parts.
I bought my Aptera CES hoodie and will be wearing it at CES to support them. Any of you other Aptera investors interested in meeting up in Vegas for lunch or dinner?
I'd like to meet some community members. I haven't set my travel plans because I am speculating Aptera may have an event in the days leading up to or following CES.
@ Hopefully someone in the Aptera booth will put together a sign up sheet for various group meetings during and after the show.
You guys should all meet up for the 10 miles/kWh demo.
@ I will if that is a real thing in Vegas during CES.
@@davidpost4216if it's a real thing is the $Million question.
Maybe they could take the aptera to the electrify expo events. Just saying.
I think less than 1% know of Aptera whereas Lucid is maybe 3%. Rivian 5%.
Rivians are recognized niw that they are relatuvely common. I own one and occasionally get parking lot questions asking what it is, but mostly I get comments stating they would like to buy one. I think once Apteras are on the road in any significant number they will be recognizable by the public. Until then, they will remain niche.
How about getting the word out to more UA-cam creators and pod casters
"Curmudgeon" A very kind word for an ankle-biter. Best possible spin.
If "a bad-tempered (old) person" is being kind, what would be unkind? One person’s cynical take is another’s dose of realism.
@@gr8dvd One person's impressive project is another's whinge fest.
I think your percentages are way high. I doubt even 1% of the USA population knows about Aptera. And it’s probably way less for the world population.
I think youre greatly overestimating the population thats heard of aptera and lucid. Just like how you were actually surprised most people have never heard of CES, including your wife haha
if we are throwing out numbers, I would maybe 600K people know what Aptera is.
5% know about Aptera? I think 1% or less
Demographics matter. In cities, maybe 2% of people have heard of Aptera. In rural and conservative (anti-EV) parts of the country, lucky to hit 0.5%. Relative to Aptera's small initial production, that's not bad and will not significantly hurt sells. I believe Aptera will sell everything they can produce during their first three years. The key is getting started with production and cash flow.
Your pretentious condescending attitude achieves nothing. It's over 10 miles from my place to a gas station. Almost every household has HEV, PHEV, EV, large battery appliances, or solar. Many with more than one. I've helped 3 gridtie and 1 off grid array get installed. Maybe there's a possible donor somewhere that just gave up on you?
Greetings, how can I get my financial investor who works with startups a ticket to CES? He will fly in, but I'm trying to get him a ticket. He invests both for himself and for his clients like me. I sent an email to Aptera vis the website already. I'm trying to expedite the action. Thanks, Steve or others for your help.
Another one. Let's take CES just 10 years ago and when select media got to drive the ultra efficient three wheeler. Right here n YT, the video still exists. Super simple to do yet I know nobody will do it or just make up claims about Elio but that's OK. When you are a superfan, you are required by law to ignore and make up claims as to how this is different. Search here, Driving Elio, the ultra-efficient car with three wheels - CES 2015
@billsmith5960 Thanks for that! I read all of the comments and in many cases, you could just change the names and it was just like an Aptera discourse today. It had Superfans and critics too.
Lack of funding, pushed out delivery dates, and good used cars that could outperform it (the artsmith 103 argument).
All there!
No way 1 in 5 people have heard of Lucid.
What?? Lol lucid is super commonly known. My family tells me about lucid and I'M the ev guy 😂
Nice report, but as you said all that matters is investment. Not trickle investment, but millions. Is CES a place for investors or for sellers of consumer goods?
I think you're living in a bubble, Steve and your estimates of who's heard of Aptera or Lucid are off by two orders of magnitude - my neighbor, who has bought several hybrid and all-electric vehicles over the past few years, hadn't heard of Aptera until I told him about it a couple of months ago
It's hard to say isn't it.
My neighbor has had a Lucid for 6 months. He was shocked that I knew what it was. I was the first person in that 6 month timespan.
As for Rivian, a friend of mine is a mobile tech for them. He gets pretty zero questions on his swag he wears for work or even questions what Rivian Mobile Tech actually is. At least I have seen a number of Rivians, so I know they exist.
With Aptera, unless you are on YT and searching for it or live in Carlsbad, forget people knowing about it. Look at Canoo or FUV. Same thing. Yet the superfans think it's huge.
About .81% of the U.S population
There will be many youtubers at CES. Some that have been in the Gamma. Some will put Aptera on the itenary first. For others it might be easiest with them getting pictures on the way in. If it isn't out of the way. Come back later in the day, after hitting the key areas they need to see first. Also if there are decent crowds around Aptera displays. Passerby's will notice and might come back later? The crowd only has to be big relative to the booth. Not the others around it. If the crowd looks more dense than them, it will draw more attention. It is a natural instinct IMO. The complex is huge. Whatever is getting people excited will move throughout the building faster than a virus. Plus you will have walking billboards! Kudos to the designer. You can't not see that.
I hope that Aptera's display makes the point loud and clear that this is not a prototype because I don't think anyone who sees it will assume anything else.
Interesting perspective. Machined parts vs cast? Airbag status? Braking development status? Production line status? Demo hand built or production built? Final MSRP, delivery date, sales contracts? Performance spec results? Number of test miles, warranty?
@@artsmith103 It just occurred to me that I was thinking "concept car" when I wrote "prototype" instead.
South korea martial law may affect this and the agreements.
5% of the US population is ~17 million. I bet it's much less than 1% (~3.5 million). Maybe one tenth of that. Maybe more have seen it (e.g., news report, social media advertising) but probably many of them have not taken notice or interest.
I agree with the hard and fast external deadline. Very motivational.
I'm still a bit curious about the location of the Aptera booth at CES. It is small and it appears that it is outside the main halls in a parking lot (not in a foyer). Granted, there are a number of other exhibitors in the same "Central Plaza" but I wonder how much traffic they'll actually get. What I don't know is whether this area has been renovated in the recent LV Convention Center upgrades and is now more of an actual plaza or "foyer" (as Steve has called it).
Chris M. confirmed it is an outdoors booth in the Central plaza.
'Very optimistic about Aptera @ CES.
Hope lots of Ambassadors go to help represent!... maybe help free-up staff to entertain all the media.
I wonder if Mark Cuban goes to CES.
Cuban and Aptera deserve each other! If I was at CES I would personally walk him to the Aptera booth :-)
Elio never had a production intent vehicle! They never had a production engine for the vehicle. The engine they spent most of their money on was a failure!
Elio called their Pi builds, e-series (Elio built two of them that functioned). Same exact thing, different terminology. Most of their money was not invested in the motor either. Please read their SEC filings and you'll see.
Chris Anthony and Steve Fambro better not say anything politically against Gavin Newsom. That got Elon Musk's Tesla excluded from Newsom's EV incentive. Unbelievable but true.
Ahh Yes, the new fight-- EVs are a badge of politics. Its a revolting trend!
How will Aptera compete with $25k Tesla 2?
Neither are for sale. Is the Model 2 even on Tesla's roadmap ? I thought Musk was pushing the Robotaxi.
To compete is easy, neither will be made. Musk has given up on the '25$ Model 02" in favour of the Robotaxi.
How can it really compete with the current Model 3? It's $33K-ish for now vs. Aptera's >$40K if they make it.
Not clear the latest Model 3 doesn't have greater range than the LE. TBD I guess.
@bobhellman8676 if Musk and the Orange man have their way the tax credit will end. But Aptera is unique. I dont think it is a Tesla competitor, and it doesn't have to be. I'd buy one for the efficiency and solar charge capability. Iwon'tt ever buy a car from Musk.
I'd actually prefer the 250 mile Aptera, but let's hope that they can at least bring the LE to market. Also I don't believe it will be > $40k.
If it is it will become much more of niche vehicle that it already is.