Why Wall Street Is Completely Wrong About IBM
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- Опубліковано 16 лис 2024
- IBM stock has performed poorly over the years as the company's two key metrics - revenue and free cash flow - stagnate. That's all water under the bridge as IBM has reinvented themselves now with (checks notes) yet another pivot into AI. IBM's AI creation Watson is now watsonx, and that subtle name change is supposed to make us forget about the Watson Health disaster. Based on comments in the latest earnings call, generative AI and Watson brought in $400 million in revenues last quarter, but that will be recognized over 12-24 months. In the meantime, the "Data and AI" revenue segment grew just 5% last year. IBM is no AI stock, but they are forecasting $12 billion in free cash flow next year which saw their share price hit 10-year highs. Now maybe they can start growing that dividend a bit more than just the paltry 1.3% we've seen over the past 5 years. Here's to hoping we're wrong about IBM's AI success story being all dough and little show.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. IBM and Red Hat - WTF is a Hybrid Cloud?
www.nanalyze.c...
2. Investing in Cloud Computing. Any Growth Left?
www.nanalyze.c...
3. Making IBM Great Again With Artificial Intelligence
www.nanalyze.c...
4. What Do IBM Mainframe Computers Look Like Today?
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5. IBM Stock Review | Finally a Turnaround
• IBM Stock Review | Fin...
CHAPTERS:
00:58 Is IBM growth or value?
02:52 IBM's two key measures of success
03:45 How safe is IBM's dividend?
05:29 The Watson Health disaster
06:59 IBM emerges as an AI stock.
09:04 Consulting or Enterprise AI SaaS?
11:18 Concluding thoughts on IBM
12:21 A better dividend tech stock
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Great Analysis would love to see a follow up report after Q2 is reported, their business model is different this time around they are more of a provider for artificial intelligence instead of the end product so i think it’s slightly more risk adverse
i’m still bullish on IBM because of how much experience their chip division has especially when it comes to Artificial Intelligence they are one of a handful of companies that can have a competitive product (hardware) versus nvidia and have software that’s tailored for said hardware in one stop shop service that’s less ricky than trying to sell an end product.
Thank you for the comment! We're holding IBM for dividend growth reasons. The extent to which they'll benefit from AI remains questionable given what we talked about in the video. NVIDIA is definitely a one stop shop too (CUDA) so IBM needs to compete against that on the AI chip side. We revisit companies about once a year so next year we'll take another look at the earliest.
I was a big IBM/Watson fan almost ten years ago now. I would be the annoying guy talking about how they were going to make perfect weather predictions and could solve medical diagnoses better than a board of physicians (I also read that article about their health sector getting scrapped, it depressed me) and The Weather Channel, or their app, used to say 'Powered by Watson', now it just says 'An IBM Company' so so much for branding. Also NVIDIA is building some massive generative model of the entire earth, called Earth-2, which they claim will take an entire warehouse of processors, so there goes Watson's weather simulation.
I guess the point is that I feel like an idiot for holding it so long but I eventually sold this year, ironically when a lot of people finally took notice. But I think it is too little too late. Great video.
We're right there with you, except we haven't sold yet :) Our strategy is to always hold unless there's a dividend cut, though IBM hasn't even been able to beat inflation with their increases. This is a prime example of what happens when a company gets too well fed and lazy. Working there must really suck, so hopefully the new leader starts cracking the whip. Seems to be. Glad you enjoyed the video!
Nice summary , nice listen !
Thanks
Thank you for the feedback!
they tell you revenue growth is the success metri but they buy that growth thru M&A & it is not organic
Ideally growth happens through both organic and M&A. Many companies break those numbers out for investors to see. Not sure if IBM does.
Another slam dunk from Nanalyze
Gracias!
Dead money.
Maybe. We're hoping not. ;)
note to self: short IBM next earnings
Hah. You wouldn't find us shorting anything, and we cover a LOT of crap companies. It's just too risky.