Cheers for the positive feedback Dan! Trying to buy their way to a top slot in foundry seems like a huge gamble. What's the plan if that doesn't work out?
@@Nanalyzethe same thing they have been doing continue failing and blame the market, reverse stock split and brag about mobileye and get another ceo to kick the can....
Thank you for the feedback. We created the video earlier this week and scheduled it for our Friday slot as usual. Didn't expect earnings to be that disastrous.
Thank you for raising this. I came across mentions of this when researching the piece but felt it was too big of a rabbit hole. I simply wondered if these problems stemmed from their own foundries which wouldn't bode well for all that massive expansion that's happening. Also future possible customers will be noting that as well. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Yup, that rabbit hole is deep. It seems to be a compound problem: •Via oxydation, indicative of bad foundry process. •Frequency & voltage pushed too far, indicative of losing vs AMD. •Microcode bug, though that may be a scapegoat. •Attempting to cover-up since Nov 2022, indicative of corrupt leadership.
A few things I would like to note - TSMC are not bringing their leading edge chip production to the US or abroad, intel are and geopolitically - globalisation is in decline. In the next few years intel will suffer a lot of pain and may be dying. However if China invades Taiwan, or they actually pull off the foundary business and turnaround to start producing chips, the upside would be significant. I wouldnt make it a major position due to risk, but there is more method to the madness, than I think you mentioned in this video.
Once we've established that something is a turnaround story then we lose interest fast per our methodology. If they can pull off the foundry business then everything will go as planned and they'll be back to where they were before - healthy gross margins, revenue growth, profitability. There's an opportunity cost associated with waiting for that to happen. Hopefully they do pull it off. Two years from now we should see whether it's working or not.
TSMC is not bringing their most advanced chip making tech to the usa. They will keep that in Taiwan. The lack of talents and work culture differences are the two reasons they won't do it. At this point, the plant in az won't go online until at least 2027 and won't be making the latest and greatest chips. It will probably make chips that are a generation or two behind.
For me the most concerning factor in the last report is that data center AI revenue dropped -3% YOY. It seems Intel is unable to capitalize on AI data center boom. And foundry revenue is only up by 4% YOY.
Intel being Intel 😂 AMD on the other hand... it might have a shot against Nvidia. It's not perfect, but Geohotz from tinygrad has demonstrated that it some cases the AMD chips can outperform Nvidia chips on a price to performance basis. Hoping to see a bit more developments in that area, it's not good for the market to have Nvidia's position unchallenged. Intel def gives me IBM vibes 😂
Turnaround stories, or stories in general, usually get the avoid. The upside with Intel seems to be resuming the growth and profitability they had before in recent years.
I’m an INTC believer, but have to give you props on such a good breakdown of what’s going on with each part of the business. I may have higher hopes for Intel, but love the channel. Cheers, keep going! 🍻
It's ALWAYS great to have people around who think differently about a stock so we can consider both sides. There is a thesis that says the $185 billion they're spending (plus CHIPS act) lead to a foundry leader which ends up being bigger and better than it ever was. We'll keep going, thank you for the support!
13th and 14th gen cpu have major problems nobody is talking about and Intel is whistling past the graveyard. Heard they just decided to extend warranties by 2 years. Yikes.
People saying that Intel should just forget the fabs and focus on competing with Nvidia in the GPU space don't understand the scale of Nvidia's moat. It is not just the hardware, but Nvidia has been working on their GPU software CUDA for going on 17 years. They have poured countless billions into their software platform. In 2008, Pat Gelsinger claimed Nvidia CUDA will be a "footnote" in history. There is no way Intel can ever be competative in the GPU/TPU market, unless maybe AI can generate the software for them. The laptop and other mobile platforms are increasingly moving towards ARM and RISC platforms due to superior power efficiency. Data center hyperscalars such as Google and and Amazon are also moving towards ARM with their Axion and Gravitron CPUs. In the x86 space, Intel has to compete with AMD - a company that does not have to deal with the insane cost of developing and maintaining chip fabs. In the chip foundry space, Intel still has to compete with TSMC which is also building fabs in the US and EU. Intel is completely uninvestible at this point.
Thanks for this analysis. Very Helpful. I’m grateful to have avoided IIntel value trap. Very tempting over the previous several years. Started a position in SNPS today. It’s always expensive, but for good reason. Cheers.
Would have been even more helpful three years ago. ;) We created it three days ago and scheduled it for today per our usual video release cadence. The outcome of Intel's earnings bomb doesn't change anything in the video.
Thank you for the feedback! Can other people confirm this audio problem? This is the same audio quality we've had for the past several hundred videos and we have had the occasional complaint but nobody saying it's hard to listen to.
@@NanalyzeIt's on all your videos. I watch on two different TVs. Both newer OLEDs. One on the TV speaker and the other on a high-end home theater system. It happens on both, but it's worse on the TV speaker. It also happens on my phone. It's when you inflect and raise your volume when you're speaking. Your videos are the only UA-cam videos I experience this on, so it's not my ears, which have been tested to 16kHz. It might not be clipping. It might be an equalization issue that's affected by the frequency of your inflection.
@@chesapeake566 This is very useful to know. So I am lowering the recording input to 95%. We used to record a lot lower than that but then people said the volume was too low. So perhaps lowering to 94 or 95 will help the inflections. Did this on our upcoming tech trends video and will continue doing going forward. Please see if that helps. Our audio is a work in progress and we're always looking for ways to make it better. Thank you for bearing with us ;) Joe P.
Wonder how a rumor like that would get out. One can't help but notice how everything went downhill once the current CEO came on board. The way he talk in that Wired article shows just how big a risk he's taking here.
@@Nanalyze I am not sure how much stock to put into it, I live in Portland and there are a lot of intel employees here, sitting in Coava enjoying a coffee and a marrionberry poptart and there were just a bunch of tech bros talking about earnings, layoffs at the company, and about Frank Slootman being recruited. I did not really start paying attention till I heard that name and was just thinking that he did such a good job at snowflake before stepping down that he might be able to help intel. I doubt he would ever leave Montana though.
@@Nanalyze Comments on others videos say Pat was also responsible for the huuuuge 10nm delay. More generally, comments from people claiming to be Intel and/or in the know are consistently very negative. Never positive.
watching this the day stock fell -26% Aug 2nd.They made a marketing guy CEO. Krzanich in 2013.He was never a working engineer. He loved immigrants,transgender's, blacks.He was obviously setting himself up to be a Democrat politician with his DEI policies. He sold most of his shares right before massive security vulnerabilities in intel's chips were publicized. wouldn't touch the Stock until 2026 unless they come out with an Arc GPU that can be used in AI.
We like to create videos before earnings calls so then we aren't sidetracked by noise. Then we'll release them around or after earnings to take advantage of the increased interest. It's a good practice because then we can how our findings compare to the updated info provided during the earnings call. In this case our findings seemed validated.
It was filmed three days ago for that purpose - to not let the noise around an earnings call impact the conclusion. The editor added a few last-minute quips but the conclusions stand whether the stock goes up or down in the short term.
@@Nanalyze well it appears that this video was made to ride the bad news for clicks and views and the conclusion could very well be to hype it up. Also, DEI just randomly used. Whose the DEI hire that wrecked intel then?
@@TheBooban Joe here. I'm the founder of Nanalyze and presenter of this video. We said it once, I'll say it a second time. It was made three days ago and had nothing to do with the earnings call. Your false accusation is wrong. So I could care less how you think it appears, you just heard it from the horse's mouth. Since you don't seem to know much about how DEI damages everything it touches, maybe you should watch this piece next: ua-cam.com/video/WTFpR0KHjrI/v-deo.html
@@Nanalyze I said it _appears_ . Not a direct accusation but you can’t deny that’s what it looks like by timing it like this. No, I don’t know the impact of the DEI hires. You didn’t tell me, just made empty accusations…
@@TheBooban Well now you know the facts. For the second time, here's a piece that explains why DEI is utter shite: : ua-cam.com/video/WTFpR0KHjrI/v-deo.html
Thats a biased atatement to say the diveristy initiatice in 2015 was a move away from meritocracy. Maybe that was the result but it was not branded as a move away from meritocracy.
@Nanalyze I get why you stated it that way. Just hearing it in those terms in your informational presentation sent me looking up details for clarification on what that was about. I agree with you about the end effect.
Government never wastes money. The problem is that taxes aren't high enough ;) Joking aside, yes, this is said to cost a lot to cover BUT they say that improved health will show an ROI.
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I just don't see how their business model works in the modern world. Design and Foundry don't go together anymore. Quality video
Cheers for the positive feedback Dan! Trying to buy their way to a top slot in foundry seems like a huge gamble. What's the plan if that doesn't work out?
@@Nanalyzethe same thing they have been doing continue failing and blame the market, reverse stock split and brag about mobileye and get another ceo to kick the can....
@@techshark77 Maybe so. This is why it's so important not to fall behind in the first place.
Did you plan beforehand to upload it today or is it a coincidence that the stock just drops around 30%? 😂 anyway, thanks for the video. Nice as always
Thank you for the feedback. We created the video earlier this week and scheduled it for our Friday slot as usual. Didn't expect earnings to be that disastrous.
lets not forget the high failure rates in their latest chips. Datacenter customers not happy.
Thank you for raising this. I came across mentions of this when researching the piece but felt it was too big of a rabbit hole. I simply wondered if these problems stemmed from their own foundries which wouldn't bode well for all that massive expansion that's happening. Also future possible customers will be noting that as well. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze Yup, that rabbit hole is deep. It seems to be a compound problem:
•Via oxydation, indicative of bad foundry process.
•Frequency & voltage pushed too far, indicative of losing vs AMD.
•Microcode bug, though that may be a scapegoat.
•Attempting to cover-up since Nov 2022, indicative of corrupt leadership.
Intel doing poorly, yet stock based compensation is increased, not what you want to see as investor
Looking at SBC as a percentage of revenues tells us if this is excessive or not. Software has one of the highest SBC rates, about 8% of revenues.
A few things I would like to note - TSMC are not bringing their leading edge chip production to the US or abroad, intel are and geopolitically - globalisation is in decline. In the next few years intel will suffer a lot of pain and may be dying. However if China invades Taiwan, or they actually pull off the foundary business and turnaround to start producing chips, the upside would be significant. I wouldnt make it a major position due to risk, but there is more method to the madness, than I think you mentioned in this video.
Once we've established that something is a turnaround story then we lose interest fast per our methodology. If they can pull off the foundry business then everything will go as planned and they'll be back to where they were before - healthy gross margins, revenue growth, profitability. There's an opportunity cost associated with waiting for that to happen. Hopefully they do pull it off. Two years from now we should see whether it's working or not.
@@Nanalyze I bet Intel won't turnaround.
They messed up too bad, while semiconductor industry is unforgiving.
TSMC is not bringing their most advanced chip making tech to the usa. They will keep that in Taiwan. The lack of talents and work culture differences are the two reasons they won't do it. At this point, the plant in az won't go online until at least 2027 and won't be making the latest and greatest chips. It will probably make chips that are a generation or two behind.
@@Freedom_from_imp That makes sense
Intel fail miserably. So many competitor on Cpu market (Amd,qualcom, apple, samsung)
It's worth examining why so we can identify when other leaders go into decline
For me the most concerning factor in the last report is that data center AI revenue dropped -3% YOY.
It seems Intel is unable to capitalize on AI data center boom. And foundry revenue is only up by 4% YOY.
Precisely, especially the weakness in data center. They should be selling stuff like hotcakes.
Intel being Intel 😂 AMD on the other hand... it might have a shot against Nvidia. It's not perfect, but Geohotz from tinygrad has demonstrated that it some cases the AMD chips can outperform Nvidia chips on a price to performance basis. Hoping to see a bit more developments in that area, it's not good for the market to have Nvidia's position unchallenged. Intel def gives me IBM vibes 😂
Totally. Thank you for the comment!
I have "hopes and dreams" to invest in this company. Not sure its enough to save this situation. :(
Turnaround stories, or stories in general, usually get the avoid. The upside with Intel seems to be resuming the growth and profitability they had before in recent years.
Love your content. ❤️ Sound like a documentary commentator who introduces the lead-up to WWI.
Really glad to hear you're finding value in these videos!
I’m an INTC believer, but have to give you props on such a good breakdown of what’s going on with each part of the business. I may have higher hopes for Intel, but love the channel. Cheers, keep going! 🍻
It's ALWAYS great to have people around who think differently about a stock so we can consider both sides. There is a thesis that says the $185 billion they're spending (plus CHIPS act) lead to a foundry leader which ends up being bigger and better than it ever was. We'll keep going, thank you for the support!
13th and 14th gen cpu have major problems nobody is talking about and Intel is whistling past the graveyard. Heard they just decided to extend warranties by 2 years. Yikes.
Wonder if those defective chips are coming from their new foundries?
People saying that Intel should just forget the fabs and focus on competing with Nvidia in the GPU space don't understand the scale of Nvidia's moat. It is not just the hardware, but Nvidia has been working on their GPU software CUDA for going on 17 years. They have poured countless billions into their software platform. In 2008, Pat Gelsinger claimed Nvidia CUDA will be a "footnote" in history. There is no way Intel can ever be competative in the GPU/TPU market, unless maybe AI can generate the software for them.
The laptop and other mobile platforms are increasingly moving towards ARM and RISC platforms due to superior power efficiency. Data center hyperscalars such as Google and and Amazon are also moving towards ARM with their Axion and Gravitron CPUs. In the x86 space, Intel has to compete with AMD - a company that does not have to deal with the insane cost of developing and maintaining chip fabs.
In the chip foundry space, Intel still has to compete with TSMC which is also building fabs in the US and EU. Intel is completely uninvestible at this point.
Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. This is a useful comment.
Thanks for this analysis. Very Helpful. I’m grateful to have avoided IIntel value trap. Very tempting over the previous several years. Started a position in SNPS today. It’s always expensive, but for good reason. Cheers.
We're glad you found the analysis helpful! We were eyeballing SNPS as well.
This video would have been helpful had you released it three days ago.
Would have been even more helpful three years ago. ;) We created it three days ago and scheduled it for today per our usual video release cadence. The outcome of Intel's earnings bomb doesn't change anything in the video.
Also worth noting the editor added in a few references to the earnings bomb this morning right before releasing. Joe P.
Your information and analysis is great, but you need to fix your audio. Your verbal inflections seem to clip your microphone. It's hard to listen to.
Thank you for the feedback! Can other people confirm this audio problem? This is the same audio quality we've had for the past several hundred videos and we have had the occasional complaint but nobody saying it's hard to listen to.
@@NanalyzeIt's on all your videos. I watch on two different TVs. Both newer OLEDs. One on the TV speaker and the other on a high-end home theater system. It happens on both, but it's worse on the TV speaker. It also happens on my phone. It's when you inflect and raise your volume when you're speaking. Your videos are the only UA-cam videos I experience this on, so it's not my ears, which have been tested to 16kHz. It might not be clipping. It might be an equalization issue that's affected by the frequency of your inflection.
@@chesapeake566 This is very useful to know. So I am lowering the recording input to 95%. We used to record a lot lower than that but then people said the volume was too low. So perhaps lowering to 94 or 95 will help the inflections. Did this on our upcoming tech trends video and will continue doing going forward. Please see if that helps. Our audio is a work in progress and we're always looking for ways to make it better. Thank you for bearing with us ;) Joe P.
They just cut their dividend aswell, it's not looking good 😮
So no yield anymore. This is why dividend increase track records are so important. Companies have an incentive to keep them going.
This so called company, is a prime example of what NOT to do...
It needs a couple more years to say for sure, but it's a great case study either way
I heard a rumor today that the board of intel was hunting Frank Slootman as a replacement ceo. Could be interesting if it turns out to be true.
Wonder how a rumor like that would get out. One can't help but notice how everything went downhill once the current CEO came on board. The way he talk in that Wired article shows just how big a risk he's taking here.
@@Nanalyze I am not sure how much stock to put into it, I live in Portland and there are a lot of intel employees here, sitting in Coava enjoying a coffee and a marrionberry poptart and there were just a bunch of tech bros talking about earnings, layoffs at the company, and about Frank Slootman being recruited. I did not really start paying attention till I heard that name and was just thinking that he did such a good job at snowflake before stepping down that he might be able to help intel. I doubt he would ever leave Montana though.
@@glitchlife4639 P-town eh. Wouldn't that be interesting if your intel on Intel turned out to be true. Maybe WFH in Montana is in the cards.
@@Nanalyze Comments on others videos say Pat was also responsible for the huuuuge 10nm delay.
More generally, comments from people claiming to be Intel and/or in the know are consistently very negative. Never positive.
watching this the day stock fell -26% Aug 2nd.They made a marketing guy CEO. Krzanich in 2013.He was never a working engineer. He loved immigrants,transgender's, blacks.He was obviously setting himself up to be a Democrat politician with his DEI policies. He sold most of his shares right before massive security vulnerabilities in intel's chips were publicized.
wouldn't touch the Stock until 2026 unless they come out with an Arc GPU that can be used in AI.
We like to create videos before earnings calls so then we aren't sidetracked by noise. Then we'll release them around or after earnings to take advantage of the increased interest. It's a good practice because then we can how our findings compare to the updated info provided during the earnings call. In this case our findings seemed validated.
I think it’s too early, I think it’s going to take longer to see if it’s going to be RIP Intel.
It's become a turnaround story and that's when we get turned off ;)
@@Nanalyze true, it’s a turnaround story, I really hope they make it. Not invested yet
I think I'll stick with my TSMC stock
Leaders have a lot easier time keeping their leadership positions.
Just wait until trump gets elected
Great video again, Joe!
Glad you enjoyed it Jack, thank you for the feedback! Joe P.
If only this video was posted.. yesterday
It was filmed three days ago for that purpose - to not let the noise around an earnings call impact the conclusion. The editor added a few last-minute quips but the conclusions stand whether the stock goes up or down in the short term.
@@Nanalyze well it appears that this video was made to ride the bad news for clicks and views and the conclusion could very well be to hype it up.
Also, DEI just randomly used. Whose the DEI hire that wrecked intel then?
@@TheBooban Joe here. I'm the founder of Nanalyze and presenter of this video. We said it once, I'll say it a second time. It was made three days ago and had nothing to do with the earnings call. Your false accusation is wrong. So I could care less how you think it appears, you just heard it from the horse's mouth. Since you don't seem to know much about how DEI damages everything it touches, maybe you should watch this piece next: ua-cam.com/video/WTFpR0KHjrI/v-deo.html
@@Nanalyze I said it _appears_ . Not a direct accusation but you can’t deny that’s what it looks like by timing it like this.
No, I don’t know the impact of the DEI hires. You didn’t tell me, just made empty accusations…
@@TheBooban Well now you know the facts. For the second time, here's a piece that explains why DEI is utter shite: : ua-cam.com/video/WTFpR0KHjrI/v-deo.html
Thats a biased atatement to say the diveristy initiatice in 2015 was a move away from meritocracy. Maybe that was the result but it was not branded as a move away from meritocracy.
Of course not. It never is, is it? Hiring managers know exactly what it is though.
@Nanalyze I get why you stated it that way. Just hearing it in those terms in your informational presentation sent me looking up details for clarification on what that was about. I agree with you about the end effect.
What abother watse of money by the government 😊
Government never wastes money. The problem is that taxes aren't high enough ;) Joking aside, yes, this is said to cost a lot to cover BUT they say that improved health will show an ROI.
Who murdered that tree in the backround?
Firefighters. They were trying to keep other trees from being murdered by fire. It's kind of like the trolley problem except using trees.
I prefer TSM
That's a logical next step
Love it when you break it down and find its just a big pile of sht. 😅
As it sits today Intel isn't showing many green shoots of promise - just massive cash bleed. We shall see.