That anecdote of yours about someone refusing orders sounds like it may have been some kind of mental breakdown. I recall an account of something similar that happened in the ranks of the 101st during the battle of Bastogne. A unit that had been barely holding a line of trenches against overwhelming German attacks had to go on patrol or counterattack or something to that effect, I don't remember what the order was, but one of the men refused. Just said something along the lines of "Nope, not going anywhere anymore. I'm done." The officer in charge of the unit knew that this guy was a battle-hardened and reliable veteran and this was nothing like him. The protocol demanded court martial, but he just basically let him have a day off to get his shit back together. After that he was back to his old self. Sometimes empathy is more efficient than punishment.
People don’t do things without a reason. It might not be what another person thinks is a good reason, it might not be a reason they are able to fully articulate, but there is a reason. Given the potential consequences of refusing an order, it would be on some level a big reason.
I remember reading about the details of how the internal order was generated and executed to inventory the contents of Stalin’s personal quarters following his suspicious death in 1953. I was struck by the way the writer prefaced the simple, terse list of what little Stalin had chosen to keep at his personal cottage. Rather than simply stating the contents of the residence, the writer began by stating his reason -- the writer specifically said he was listing the contents because he had been instructed to make a list, and he identified who had given him those instructions. It was a CYA situation where the list writer was clearly very worried that almost *anything* that anyone did, no matter how small, could suddenly leave an opening for extreme criticism or even put one’s life in danger. Once a sociopolitical situation is completely dominated by an overwhelming amount of fear and denial, then not only honor but also efficiency will drop, as fear causes everyone who is supposed to be working to be paralyzed by worry and doubt.
Another problem with CYA is that you want to formally point out EVERY risk that could possibly come to fruition, no matter how small, because if something happens, and you didn't brief someone on it first...it's your ass. Thus, many, many people "crying wolf," leading to an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. A mention of a risk of Kursk invasion might be dismissed as "pro forma ass-covering" in such an environment.
In the IDF, a soldier is allowed to demand a reason for an order and the commander is required to answer- not in an emergency. This put the commander feeling liable and builds trust.
Regarding "conscript" or drafted soldiers vs volunteer soldiers, I'm not entirely sure you have the right take on this, at least as far as the US Army anyway. During the Korean war, my Dad was drafted nearly immediately after he finished his degree at Purdue University. He served his 2 years (plus 2 inactive reserve). He was very proud of 2 things: his dog tags listed his serial number (not SSN) starting with "USAR", US ARMY RESERVE, indicating that he was drafted, not "RA" or volunteer/Regular Army. And he was, strangely, extremely proud of his "good conduct medal". These were only available to enlisted ranks, not Officers. 20 years after his discharge, he received a letter asking him to fill out some forms to show him entering the Army and Discharging as a 2nd Lieutenant, retroactively based on his degree as a degree as a Doctor of Pharmacy. "I was a damn Specialst 4 and nothing can ever change that", and some other...choice words as well. He was a medic for 1 year then at Madigin Army Hospital for the 2nd year as a Pharmacist. He always said, he would never have enlisted but was proud of his service. He strongly believed in having mandatory service. He thought it would keep the politicans over using the military. He always remembered a lecture he got when he was discharged by a Master Sergeant who had been in WW 2: Don't forget the Army, Don't forget what you've done. "We're still here". He never did forget.
One of the Ukrainians even planted a tidy little garden by his trench because he was bored and frustrated out of his mind. I hope he's doing okay. Was it necessary? Nope. But it gave him hope and increased the the soldiers morale. Home sweet trench? He might have been a farmer before the war.
also from what I hear, the Russian mlitary leadership was paralyzed by their power struggles with the FSB , so I think there was so much confusion and focus on this power struggle that they were distracted from intel about the Ukrainains which they probably dismissed as ridiculous.Notice before the Invasion , Shoigus buddies in the Russian army leadership were either being arrested or falling from windows.
Are you an clown or did you hear this from the media of Western countries? The FSB has no problems with the government, it works and works well. Because they replaced Shoigu with another person, and after that the arrests began. Because the FSB found evidence of corruption. This does not happen so easily if there are major corrupt officials in the government who resist. But the process is underway.
Top ten youtube specialized news source. There's no repetitive info and it's threaded together nicely across episodes. So much election stuff that's retreaded/stale.
As a historian I would like to add that this is nothing new for a Russian army. Using czarist language, the army had 2 components, the aristocrat officers who "knew everything" and the peasant soldiers who "knew nothing". All rule was maintained by force. And that lack of trust was enlarged when the dumb officers, which there were plenty of, gave dumb orders. The soldiers who knew better could not give advise, because there officer was also their "social better" making that advise civillian rebellion. The times have changed but that system still exists, making conscripts hardly human. Small wonder those conscripts try to do a little as possible.
What happened with the Russian military in Kursk not improving their defenses should perhaps a kind of behaviour from their officers wishing to embarass the Kremlin . Indeed there are many points of antagonisms between the military staff, the different powerful individuals in the political power , the economic elite , the Rossgardia , the FSA and the FSB . This not a functionning State but a conglomerate of different maffia with their own private army , militia and so on.
By this point I wouldn't be surprised, if things have become so Stalin-era like, that people in the military are afraid, that "a defeatist attitude" like that might get them in serious trouble.
@@yyyy12344 hahahaha !! and the Russians walked to the moon and Russian billionaires have huge yachts of hundreds of millions of USD value instead to invest in technological research and development
It has been known for a while that the Russians knew about the Ukrainian build up near the Kursk border but Gerasimov chose to ignore it. Normally that would mean he would end up doing a bungee jump without a rope but who does Putin replace him with? In that regime loyalty is far more important than competence.
I am not shocked and neither should anyone else. 1. In 2021, when everyone was proclaiming that there was no way that the Ukraine couldn't be defeated in three days, one general spoke out against the plan to send five columns into the Ukraine. As a result of expressing his opinion, this General was dismissed from his post. His name was Gerassimov. In fact, Gerassimov was so disfavored that he wasn't even told that the invasion was given a green light. 2. At the start of WW2, the US did have a plan to defend the Philippines. The nearest and major Japanese military installation was on Formosa. It was the base from which the Japanese had trained and marshaled forces to invade Thailand. The plan was to send bombers to Formosa. All it required was a green light from the commander of the US forces. The commander went to a party and no one could find him. to give the green light. His name was MacArthur. So, the next day, first thing, the Japanese destroyed the US Army air force on the ground, undispersed. He wasn't fired. 3. In 2023, a US Secretary of Defense disappeared. He did not follow the protocol of informing the second in command who was out of the country on vacation. This civilian, a former US Army General, was not fired for not following communications protocols. 4. Sure, Gerassimov and a whole bunch of people were informed of a possible attack, just like there had been intelligence about attacks, concentration of forces of the UA for the past two years. So now, you are Gerassimov. a. you have pressure from the boss, so you are betting that a new offensive from Russia to the first line of UA defense is 9 miles and you are told to take that territory. Further south, with meat wave attacks, you are making progress in rolling up the UA. b. The US has never encouraged the UA to invade Russia. Your first line of Russian defense is right on the border, but with 100% hindsight, you, Gerassimov was supposed to have put experienced soldiers up and down the border without a precise intelligence of exactly where the UA would attack. You don't need a weather vane to know which way the wind is blowing. Especially, when 20-20 hindsight is available.
Re flat out refusal of orders - in 6 years never saw it happen- wild - could see conscripts- but a paid volunteer - truly bizarre- thx for vids/have a great day 🏈
The FSB and army officers all disappeared in the night as soon as the Ukranians attacked, leaving the untrained conscripts to their own devices. Without NCOs there was no one to train or supervise the conscripts.
I think the motivational aspect is simply that Russian conscripts are people who are undergoing mandatory military service, so these are not people who are there because they want to. While by contrast voluntary service, like the US, everyone has made a choice to be where they are... and that guy in Afghanistan just changed his mind for whatever reason. Also the Russian conditions are why the conscripts getting captured or killed is a much harder blow than the contract soldiers, since there are people who are expecting the conscripts to come home at some point.
And notice that all of these conscripts have been offered a lot of money for going to fight in Ukraine and they have already refused. If you refused a lot of money to go fight it makes you very unlikely to fight for free.
Paul, Kursk was a trap, it is just a huge Cauldron, at the moment the Russians are putting the lid on the kettle. This excellent Mongolian tactic drew many Ukranian brigades away from other directions along the entire frontline. That explains the ongoing Russian advance along the entire frontline, they just have to find the weak spots....
You are one of the few youtubers that knows how to explains many of this topics to the average viewers as you have military experience. I love that you explains things like dealing with lack of discipline or the problem with having restrictions in combat bc you have experience those situations.
One time in air force Tech school we had a hurricane go threw, and it blew shit allover the base. The whole student body had to clean the whole base. There were captains in golf karts directing the cleanup. They worked us 13 hours straight cleaning leaves off the officers houses and branches off the street, at the 13 hour a captain came up to 100 of and told us to clean another place. One of the airmen said no we will not do it. The captain just looked at him with his mouth open not believing what he just said and just rode off.
Paul, the russians write their documents "pointlessly convoluted" so it leaves them with a lot of outs. So they can say, Oh,no, I didn't say that. Wasn't me. It's a self protective mechanism.
Officer: "This are the intelligence reports sir, there is a probability of invasion in Kursk." General: "Nonesense, Ukrainians would not dare and risk that much". Officer: "But we have confirmation of our soldiers, radar and intelligence agents of suspicious moves around the area!" General: I said nonesense, and end of discussion! Do you want me to get shot by Putin by reporting this???!!!" Officer: "But they may invade our homeland! Shouldn't we call for reinforcements from other borders? General: Absolutely not! Also, its not like I care about these low border regions. I miss my wealthy looking house in Moscow." Officer: "At least let's tell our troops about this so just in case they are prepared for..." BLAM!!! General: "Finally, some silence. Second officer, report that he died from traitorous Ukrainian nazi infiltrators or something." Second Officer: "Wait, WE HAVE SPIES??!! We must inform the secret service immediat..." BLAM! General: "Damn it, never mind. If they report that I will get shot. Third officer, come in and make the 4th officer to clean up this mess." Thrid Officer: "Sir, you shot the 4th and the rest of the officers, I'm the only one left now." General: "You useless stupid person, go to the front with the storm troopers!" Sigh, why there are so many incompetent officers?
nice story, and funny. the only thing that doesn't fit me is how that incompetent, stupid, ill-equipped Russian army has been holding 20+% of Ukraine for years and is advancing a little literally every day. And the Ukrainian super smart and capable army can't even stop them, not to mention some progress on the front that has not been there for two years.
@@markomicovic5308 Dude, an army of the size of Russia, both in ammount of equipment, oil and manpower should have swept Ukraine in the first 2 weeks. The only reason they didn't is because they were stupid at logistics, did not maintain their equipment well, they get easily ambushed and can only rely on attrition warfare by using a insane ammount of artillery, that later will claim as "conquered". If you consider conquered as talking a pile of rubble and snow as such. Then Ukrainians had plenty of time to organize themselves and repel Russians from near the capital to recieve and train for western weaponry. Russia had It all, but all ruined because of share pure incometence and corruption. To respond to your question, the reason why they are STILL 20% and talking land little by little is because they expend their massive numbers that Ukraine doesn't. It is simple attrition warfare that if done for too long Will bite your army's ass. That is why they are mobilizing 180k troops and using navy and aircraft engineers. No healthy army does that, and the disease is call overusage of attrition warfare.
I think it's more complicated than that. They CAN take action. The Russian military may be dysfunctional and hopelessly corrupt but as we've seen in the Donbass it still has a lot of teeth. ... But it's not sure they have the command bandwidth and logistics to react quickly or just change tactics. Now they're set up to rain fire on Ukraine defenders in the Donbass, and they do everything the can to maintain maximum pressure there. Taking measures to reinforce Kursk defenses would have slowed or just weakend this push for an unacceptably long time.
They could retake Kursk, but that would take resources from Donbas and also generate huge losses on their reserves. That's why officials in the MOD are asking for another mobilization, they need troops but Putin still haven't order one as it would damage their already weak economy and kill the remaining popularity Putin has.
@@Lucky_RFMDAWhy should they retake Kursk region ? That's like Krinky , UA sending waves after waves for no gains at all . 1000 soldiers were sacrificed in Krinky for a PR stunt , sometimes it looks like Zelensky and Putin work together.
@@Lucky_RFMDA Gotta be honest, both sides seem to be doing what I'd do in their shoes. At least from my perspective as some internet rando. In Kursk Ukraine is forcing the Russian in a fight involving maneuver warfare that favors Ukraine's stenghts and show's Putin weakness as a protector of the nation. But for Russia ? The territory Ukraine took is a massive political pain and open wound in Russia's flank, but strategically it changes little on the physical strategic level. Worse, it would make the Kursk situation a much bigger deal to the population. So Putin downplays the Kursk invasion while maintaining pressure in the Donbass.
Dude. Russia has some badass fortifications, though. Those trenches aren't a good example of russian fortifications. They can't make any headway in the south because of the insane fortifications. The ones in Kursk are just busy work trenches. They never thought they'd use them.
All these years, I'd seen Russia as chess grandmasters, playing 11th dimensional chess. Ukraine showed Russia plays tic-tac-toe, and didn't take the center square, even tho they made the first move. It's like being attacked by a blind drunk idiot with a hatchet. He's as likely to hit himself as he is to hit you. Scary, but climbing stairs or a fence, or a locked door or loaded gun stops him in his tracks. Then he loses interest and staggers off in search of vodka.
Tic-tac-toe was 'solved' ages ago, going centre first has the highest probability of creating a draw rather than a win compared to going with a side or even a corner first move.
The strangest story is you believing this released propaganda. The same way you repeated the Kursk trap propaganda. What happened to that. Can't believe anything you say.
Everyone who is "pro-Ukrainian" on you tube lies a lot, they talk about some great successes, about the brilliant Ukrainian and stupid Russian army, about how Russians only target civilians and Ukrainians only soldiers. When it turns out that something they were talking about has nothing to do with reality, they just move on to the next topic.Only thing that doesn't fit me is how that incompetent, stupid, ill-equipped Russian army has been holding 20+% of Ukraine for years and is advancing a little literally every day. And the Ukrainian super smart and capable army can't even stop them, not to mention some progress on the front that has not been there for two years.
Being neither a military expert nor a historian, but to my knowledge there was another Russian leader ignoring all warnings of an impending attack. CAVE: Absolutely NO intention to compare the attacking armies and their respective goals...
Released document of an imminent invasion that is post event with dates well before occurrence is also a probability. "We knew all long, nothing escapes us" -Russian mastermind somewhere in a FSB facility.
maybe these Russians are receiving all sorts of mixed messages...coupled with making all sorts of orders....then soldier has to choose which list of things to do and which not to do. So how many orders are being ignored?
This is par for the course in the Soviet/Russian military. Part of it is the autocratic nature of the state. They don't want local commanders who can take real initiative and make decisions. The other thing to remember is the time leading up to and the beginning of Operation Barbarossa in WWII. The Russians had the intelligence. They had some on their own and they were given intel gleaned from Ultra decrypts that the British had. Stalin was told directly, but he did not want to believe it.
The issue comes that the conscripts are in the majority of cases 18-19 year olds fresh out of school, that think they are the sh*t etc, are forced to go and quite literally waste a year of their life for doing stuff that they never wanted. It is opposed to what i assume in the US military where your sign up and go to military mostly out of your own choice and not by you have to go or you cant even get a job even in private sector.
Putin had made the agreement with North Korea that if either country was attacked that the other would send troops to help. Now Putin has North Koreans fighting for him in Ukraine. Maybe that's why nothing was done.
It takes training in survival skills to be able to improve and fortify and positions like you describe Combat Veteran, I doubt the Russians go to the trouble of doing that in the three days training their new recruits have.
As a conscript squad leader I had a soldier refusing orders to take a shower or in other manners take care of his personal hygene. Perhaps that is something you have to deal with when your soldiers are not volonteers.
@@evatripp7788 I think it was more things screwed up with him than simple depression. He was simply not at an adults level of mental capacity. We later learned he had a 12 year old girlfriend (Conscription age in Sweden is like 18-20 depending a bit on when you are born in the year, the armed forces tries to fit in basic training after you are done with school but before you will be missed in the work force, so basically directly after high school.)
Sounds like the local guys thought the orders were bullshit and or didn't want to do them. Local command knew Moscow wouldn't inspect to see if they followed orders.
It doesn’t help when the commanders, steal the soldiers pay! How motivated can an unpaid soldier possibly be? That is not all of your answer, but it’s probably a non-trivial part.
Paul if you are a Stick Leader in the jungle. If you are normal, you don’t just swallow orders from some Dude sitting pretty at field headquarters. Access and take an immediate decision which brings your unit back to base if there is a contact. MP’s don’t arrest KIA’s remember, they bag them. Once threatened with arrest, some NCO too Regimental Police 👮♀️ for indications. Good love punch up ensued. Police involved in the firefight closed the case. They saw for themselves first hand why the NCO disobeyed the order. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
If you're a South Park Fan it sounds like an army of Eric Cartman's. Screw you guys I'm not going to do that..... I'm not playing soldier and if you guys don't like it I'll just go home...... yeah that don't work out so well in building a cohesive military or in being able to repel Invaders, move forward excetera excetera....
It's look like they thought that Ukraine wouldn't dare to invade part of Kursk because They needed to protect their territory in the east, but it's kinda stupid not put soldiers there just to make sure
You're leaving out the alcohol aspect of refusing orders. Quite possibly the soldiers inside Russia felt themselves safe enough to drink because "nothing was happening". How do they command soldiers who are literally following down drunk?
To be fair, I'm not sure even the Ukrainians had a plan for this months before it happened. That report might have been more of an "If I were them" thing.
They know Ukraine is limited in going on the offensive, so they arnt that bothered tbh, if the west gave them the tools to go further that would be a different story.
Part of the problem seems to be that there is a caste system for Russian foot soldiers. Soldiers in a lower caste come from far reaching oblasts with minority populations and upper caste soldiers come from families with political connections. Lower caste soldiers get thrown into As children of privilege, they are lazy.
I would love to see a battle between Seagall and Putin, both is said to have trained for decades, Seagall would have to cope with a lose if he dosent want to visit a window
With all of this information the red line keeps on moving forward in Ukraine. Why is Ukraine not capitalizing on Russian incompetence. So what does that say about Ukranian intelligence, command and dissipline.
Maybe Putin just didn't care if Ukraine holds the South of Kursk for a while? What's South of Kursk? Sure, it's CLOSER to important things BUT is there anything really important there? After all, if Ukrainian troops are busy occupying Kursk, they can't simultaneously defend Ukraine.
Putin resembles Stalin in many ways: his crackdown on critics, his removal of popular individuals who could become rivals, and his insistence on only hearing "good news."
This is what happens when ofiicers are politicians placed through nepotism instead of career officers. The exact same thing happened in the Falkland war. Argentina could have won the war if they had actually competent officers. Suboficials were actually very competent tactically, the higher ups were all incompetent strategically, as they were just so corrupt and appointed by favoritism and loyalists to the dictatorship. The same is happening in Russia.
Military intel will report all potential threats up the chain of command and many of those threats never happen, yes they knew what Ukraine could do but at the top level there was a belief that the nuclear threats were working and the west wouldn't allow Ukraine to cross into Russia. Now can Ukraine steadily increase the pressure and prevent the Russians from reorganizing fast enough that is the question in the end it may be Ukraine stretching themselves thin
Bad Days Don't Stand a Chance with strikegum.com/
I would guess these docs simply didn't propagate high enough in russian ladder of command :D
Fuck strike gum
"the secret weapon is more caffeine." -- hooah
Have your eye brows
That anecdote of yours about someone refusing orders sounds like it may have been some kind of mental breakdown. I recall an account of something similar that happened in the ranks of the 101st during the battle of Bastogne. A unit that had been barely holding a line of trenches against overwhelming German attacks had to go on patrol or counterattack or something to that effect, I don't remember what the order was, but one of the men refused. Just said something along the lines of "Nope, not going anywhere anymore. I'm done." The officer in charge of the unit knew that this guy was a battle-hardened and reliable veteran and this was nothing like him. The protocol demanded court martial, but he just basically let him have a day off to get his shit back together. After that he was back to his old self. Sometimes empathy is more efficient than punishment.
People don’t do things without a reason. It might not be what another person thinks is a good reason, it might not be a reason they are able to fully articulate, but there is a reason. Given the potential consequences of refusing an order, it would be on some level a big reason.
Russia doesn't really seem to be capable of sympathy, it's a cultural issue.
No wonder Russia makes mistakes. They have no StrikeGum.
They cant even get 5 gum and They dont know how it feels....
No free postage and packaging to the trenches
That's it.
Or brains
Strike gum gives you muscles not brains
Those short raids into Belgorod early on gave Russia impression nothing big would ever come north
I remember reading about the details of how the internal order was generated and executed to inventory the contents of Stalin’s personal quarters following his suspicious death in 1953. I was struck by the way the writer prefaced the simple, terse list of what little Stalin had chosen to keep at his personal cottage. Rather than simply stating the contents of the residence, the writer began by stating his reason -- the writer specifically said he was listing the contents because he had been instructed to make a list, and he identified who had given him those instructions.
It was a CYA situation where the list writer was clearly very worried that almost *anything* that anyone did, no matter how small, could suddenly leave an opening for extreme criticism or even put one’s life in danger. Once a sociopolitical situation is completely dominated by an overwhelming amount of fear and denial, then not only honor but also efficiency will drop, as fear causes everyone who is supposed to be working to be paralyzed by worry and doubt.
Another problem with CYA is that you want to formally point out EVERY risk that could possibly come to fruition, no matter how small, because if something happens, and you didn't brief someone on it first...it's your ass.
Thus, many, many people "crying wolf," leading to an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. A mention of a risk of Kursk invasion might be dismissed as "pro forma ass-covering" in such an environment.
In the IDF, a soldier is allowed to demand a reason for an order and the commander is required to answer- not in an emergency. This put the commander feeling liable and builds trust.
Regarding "conscript" or drafted soldiers vs volunteer soldiers, I'm not entirely sure you have the right take on this, at least as far as the US Army anyway. During the Korean war, my Dad was drafted nearly immediately after he finished his degree at Purdue University. He served his 2 years (plus 2 inactive reserve). He was very proud of 2 things: his dog tags listed his serial number (not SSN) starting with "USAR", US ARMY RESERVE, indicating that he was drafted, not "RA" or volunteer/Regular Army. And he was, strangely, extremely proud of his "good conduct medal". These were only available to enlisted ranks, not Officers. 20 years after his discharge, he received a letter asking him to fill out some forms to show him entering the Army and Discharging as a 2nd Lieutenant, retroactively based on his degree as a degree as a Doctor of Pharmacy. "I was a damn Specialst 4 and nothing can ever change that", and some other...choice words as well. He was a medic for 1 year then at Madigin Army Hospital for the 2nd year as a Pharmacist. He always said, he would never have enlisted but was proud of his service. He strongly believed in having mandatory service. He thought it would keep the politicans over using the military. He always remembered a lecture he got when he was discharged by a Master Sergeant who had been in WW 2: Don't forget the Army, Don't forget what you've done. "We're still here". He never did forget.
"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distan.."
Good thing there are no elephants in the independent republic of Kursk
Famous last words from John Sedgwick.
One of the Ukrainians even planted a tidy little garden by his trench because he was bored and frustrated out of his mind. I hope he's doing okay. Was it necessary? Nope. But it gave him hope and increased the the soldiers morale. Home sweet trench? He might have been a farmer before the war.
why you'd improve your trench position as a Russian if your expected life span is counted in hours?
also from what I hear, the Russian mlitary leadership was paralyzed by their power struggles with the FSB , so I think there was so much confusion and focus on this power struggle that they were distracted from intel about the Ukrainains which they probably dismissed as ridiculous.Notice before the Invasion , Shoigus buddies in the Russian army leadership were either being arrested or falling from windows.
That sounds so Russian
If there was a rivalry, it makes sense. Putin has coup-proofed his country into ineptitude.
Are you an clown or did you hear this from the media of Western countries? The FSB has no problems with the government, it works and works well. Because they replaced Shoigu with another person, and after that the arrests began. Because the FSB found evidence of corruption. This does not happen so easily if there are major corrupt officials in the government who resist.
But the process is underway.
Too much corrupted pople in MOD. But now we have new leader of MOD who already made cases against numerous military officials
@@yyyy12344 yah because its a power struggle between the Patrushev/FSB/Rosgvardia vs. Shoigu/GRU/Russian army
Top ten youtube specialized news source. There's no repetitive info and it's threaded together nicely across episodes. So much election stuff that's retreaded/stale.
lol....specialized news source for the shoe size IQ
Top ten media regurgitation site
As a historian I would like to add that this is nothing new for a Russian army. Using czarist language, the army had 2 components, the aristocrat officers who "knew everything" and the peasant soldiers who "knew nothing". All rule was maintained by force. And that lack of trust was enlarged when the dumb officers, which there were plenty of, gave dumb orders. The soldiers who knew better could not give advise, because there officer was also their "social better" making that advise civillian rebellion. The times have changed but that system still exists, making conscripts hardly human. Small wonder those conscripts try to do a little as possible.
What happened with the Russian military in Kursk not improving their defenses should perhaps a kind of behaviour from their officers wishing to embarass the Kremlin . Indeed there are many points of antagonisms between the military staff, the different powerful individuals in the political power , the economic elite , the Rossgardia , the FSA and the FSB . This not a functionning State but a conglomerate of different maffia with their own private army , militia and so on.
By this point I wouldn't be surprised, if things have become so Stalin-era like,
that people in the military are afraid, that "a defeatist attitude" like that
might get them in serious trouble.
Which one of them created Sputnik V? Who launches rockets to space?
@@yyyy12344 hahahaha !! and the Russians walked to the moon and Russian billionaires have huge yachts of hundreds of millions of USD value instead to invest in technological research and development
It has been known for a while that the Russians knew about the Ukrainian build up near the Kursk border but Gerasimov chose to ignore it. Normally that would mean he would end up doing a bungee jump without a rope but who does Putin replace him with? In that regime loyalty is far more important than competence.
I am not shocked and neither should anyone else.
1. In 2021, when everyone was proclaiming that there was no way that the Ukraine couldn't be defeated in three days, one general spoke out against the plan to send five columns into the Ukraine. As a result of expressing his opinion, this General was dismissed from his post. His name was Gerassimov. In fact, Gerassimov was so disfavored that he wasn't even told that the invasion was given a green light.
2. At the start of WW2, the US did have a plan to defend the Philippines. The nearest and major Japanese military installation was on Formosa. It was the base from which the Japanese had trained and marshaled forces to invade Thailand. The plan was to send bombers to Formosa. All it required was a green light from the commander of the US forces. The commander went to a party and no one could find him. to give the green light. His name was MacArthur. So, the next day, first thing, the Japanese destroyed the US Army air force on the ground, undispersed. He wasn't fired.
3. In 2023, a US Secretary of Defense disappeared. He did not follow the protocol of informing the second in command who was out of the country on vacation. This civilian, a former US Army General, was not fired for not following communications protocols.
4. Sure, Gerassimov and a whole bunch of people were informed of a possible attack, just like there had been intelligence about attacks, concentration of forces of the UA for the past two years. So now, you are Gerassimov.
a. you have pressure from the boss, so you are betting that a new offensive from Russia to the first line of UA defense is 9 miles and you are told to take that territory. Further south, with meat wave attacks, you are making progress in rolling up the UA.
b. The US has never encouraged the UA to invade Russia. Your first line of Russian defense is right on the border, but with 100% hindsight, you, Gerassimov was supposed to have put experienced soldiers up and down the border without a precise intelligence of exactly where the UA would attack.
You don't need a weather vane to know which way the wind is blowing. Especially, when 20-20 hindsight is available.
R.e the documents a specific mileage that Ukraine would enter kursk suggests that Ukraine has an informer in their midst
No doubt, UA is rife with informers. So is RF. The question is how each army’s operational security responds to info.
I think Putin didn't believe that western eqpt. would be allowed to invade Russia! Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦🇬🇧
Re flat out refusal of orders - in 6 years never saw it happen- wild - could see conscripts- but a paid volunteer - truly bizarre- thx for vids/have a great day 🏈
The FSB and army officers all disappeared in the night as soon as the Ukranians attacked, leaving the untrained conscripts to their own devices. Without NCOs there was no one to train or supervise the conscripts.
If you ignore the problems they just go away… 😂 Russian logic: what problem? Everything is under control as usual 🤣
I think the motivational aspect is simply that Russian conscripts are people who are undergoing mandatory military service, so these are not people who are there because they want to. While by contrast voluntary service, like the US, everyone has made a choice to be where they are... and that guy in Afghanistan just changed his mind for whatever reason.
Also the Russian conditions are why the conscripts getting captured or killed is a much harder blow than the contract soldiers, since there are people who are expecting the conscripts to come home at some point.
And notice that all of these conscripts have been offered a lot of money for going to fight in Ukraine and they have already refused. If you refused a lot of money to go fight it makes you very unlikely to fight for free.
As Sgt Riley would say: "the Russians couldn't pour piss out of a boot if the directions were written on the heel."
But somehow they are winning
What a moron lol. Of course nuclear and space technologies don't exist in Russia
Paul, Kursk was a trap, it is just a huge Cauldron, at the moment the Russians are putting the lid on the kettle. This excellent Mongolian tactic drew many Ukranian brigades away from other directions along the entire frontline. That explains the ongoing Russian advance along the entire frontline, they just have to find the weak spots....
The Russians haven't been making any gains though.
@@biloki3079😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@biloki3079 Pokrovsk direction
Could have been dismissed because of the soviets belief in the Ukrainian restrictions imposed by the allies.
No NCOs pretty much explains all of this lack of training and discipline.
You are one of the few youtubers that knows how to explains many of this topics to the average viewers as you have military experience. I love that you explains things like dealing with lack of discipline or the problem with having restrictions in combat bc you have experience those situations.
Arrogant know it all's that only value loyalty and sycophants will always ignore warnings because their ego blinds them from reality.
Thanks for the update, Paul.
Warnings get buried if everybody is covering their backs by warning against every conceivable possibility.
One time in air force Tech school we had a hurricane go threw, and it blew shit allover the base. The whole student body had to clean the whole base. There were captains in golf karts directing the cleanup. They worked us 13 hours straight cleaning leaves off the officers houses and branches off the street, at the 13 hour a captain came up to 100 of and told us to clean another place. One of the airmen said no we will not do it. The captain just looked at him with his mouth open not believing what he just said and just rode off.
They are probably hoping that they hurry up and lose.
Paul, the russians write their documents "pointlessly convoluted" so it leaves them with a lot of outs. So they can say, Oh,no, I didn't say that. Wasn't me. It's a self protective mechanism.
You can't say "It wasn't me" because you put your own signature on every document. But you can interpret results and means.
Officer: "This are the intelligence reports sir, there is a probability of invasion in Kursk."
General: "Nonesense, Ukrainians would not dare and risk that much".
Officer: "But we have confirmation of our soldiers, radar and intelligence agents of suspicious moves around the area!"
General: I said nonesense, and end of discussion! Do you want me to get shot by Putin by reporting this???!!!"
Officer: "But they may invade our homeland! Shouldn't we call for reinforcements from other borders?
General: Absolutely not! Also, its not like I care about these low border regions. I miss my wealthy looking house in Moscow."
Officer: "At least let's tell our troops about this so just in case they are prepared for..."
BLAM!!!
General: "Finally, some silence. Second officer, report that he died from traitorous Ukrainian nazi infiltrators or something."
Second Officer: "Wait, WE HAVE SPIES??!! We must inform the secret service immediat..."
BLAM!
General: "Damn it, never mind. If they report that I will get shot. Third officer, come in and make the 4th officer to clean up this mess."
Thrid Officer: "Sir, you shot the 4th and the rest of the officers, I'm the only one left now."
General: "You useless stupid person, go to the front with the storm troopers!" Sigh, why there are so many incompetent officers?
"I miss my wealthy looking house in Moscow."
At least the General was honest about the reasons for his incompetence..
nice story, and funny. the only thing that doesn't fit me is how that incompetent, stupid, ill-equipped Russian army has been holding 20+% of Ukraine for years and is advancing a little literally every day. And the Ukrainian super smart and capable army can't even stop them, not to mention some progress on the front that has not been there for two years.
@@markomicovic5308 Dude, an army of the size of Russia, both in ammount of equipment, oil and manpower should have swept Ukraine in the first 2 weeks.
The only reason they didn't is because they were stupid at logistics, did not maintain their equipment well, they get easily ambushed and can only rely on attrition warfare by using a insane ammount of artillery, that later will claim as "conquered". If you consider conquered as talking a pile of rubble and snow as such.
Then Ukrainians had plenty of time to organize themselves and repel Russians from near the capital to recieve and train for western weaponry.
Russia had It all, but all ruined because of share pure incometence and corruption.
To respond to your question, the reason why they are STILL 20% and talking land little by little is because they expend their massive numbers that Ukraine doesn't. It is simple attrition warfare that if done for too long Will bite your army's ass. That is why they are mobilizing 180k troops and using navy and aircraft engineers. No healthy army does that, and the disease is call overusage of attrition warfare.
When you talked about how it is to be at half strength, I halfway expected another Strikegum plug ;D
Thanks Paul 👍👍👍👍👍🌻🕶️
They don´t have the means to really take action any more.
I think it's more complicated than that.
They CAN take action. The Russian military may be dysfunctional and hopelessly corrupt but as we've seen in the Donbass it still has a lot of teeth.
... But it's not sure they have the command bandwidth and logistics to react quickly or just change tactics. Now they're set up to rain fire on Ukraine defenders in the Donbass, and they do everything the can to maintain maximum pressure there. Taking measures to reinforce Kursk defenses would have slowed or just weakend this push for an unacceptably long time.
They could retake Kursk, but that would take resources from Donbas and also generate huge losses on their reserves. That's why officials in the MOD are asking for another mobilization, they need troops but Putin still haven't order one as it would damage their already weak economy and kill the remaining popularity Putin has.
@@Lucky_RFMDAWhy should they retake Kursk region ? That's like Krinky , UA sending waves after waves for no gains at all . 1000 soldiers were sacrificed in Krinky for a PR stunt , sometimes it looks like Zelensky and Putin work together.
@@5co756 Begone Russiabot. The adults are talking here.
@@Lucky_RFMDA Gotta be honest, both sides seem to be doing what I'd do in their shoes. At least from my perspective as some internet rando.
In Kursk Ukraine is forcing the Russian in a fight involving maneuver warfare that favors Ukraine's stenghts and show's Putin weakness as a protector of the nation.
But for Russia ? The territory Ukraine took is a massive political pain and open wound in Russia's flank, but strategically it changes little on the physical strategic level. Worse, it would make the Kursk situation a much bigger deal to the population. So Putin downplays the Kursk invasion while maintaining pressure in the Donbass.
Thanks, Paul.
Without addressing human issues, there are no “Lawful Orders”, just “Orders”. True, there are Unlawful Orders but orders are, by definition, lawful.
Thank you
Dude. Russia has some badass fortifications, though. Those trenches aren't a good example of russian fortifications. They can't make any headway in the south because of the insane fortifications. The ones in Kursk are just busy work trenches. They never thought they'd use them.
All these years, I'd seen Russia as chess grandmasters, playing 11th dimensional chess.
Ukraine showed Russia plays tic-tac-toe, and didn't take the center square, even tho they made the first move.
It's like being attacked by a blind drunk idiot with a hatchet. He's as likely to hit himself as he is to hit you. Scary, but climbing stairs or a fence, or a locked door or loaded gun stops him in his tracks. Then he loses interest and staggers off in search of vodka.
11 dimensional chess?? 😂😂😂😂
Tic-tac-toe was 'solved' ages ago, going centre first has the highest probability of creating a draw rather than a win compared to going with a side or even a corner first move.
Planted information to avoid blame.
The strangest story is you believing this released propaganda. The same way you repeated the Kursk trap propaganda. What happened to that. Can't believe anything you say.
Everyone who is "pro-Ukrainian" on you tube lies a lot, they talk about some great successes, about the brilliant Ukrainian and stupid Russian army, about how Russians only target civilians and Ukrainians only soldiers. When it turns out that something they were talking about has nothing to do with reality, they just move on to the next topic.Only thing that doesn't fit me is how that incompetent, stupid, ill-equipped Russian army has been holding 20+% of Ukraine for years and is advancing a little literally every day. And the Ukrainian super smart and capable army can't even stop them, not to mention some progress on the front that has not been there for two years.
It sounds like the russian army do not wanna fight anymore?
Being neither a military expert nor a historian, but to my knowledge there was another Russian leader ignoring all warnings of an impending attack.
CAVE: Absolutely NO intention to compare the attacking armies and their respective goals...
Released document of an imminent invasion that is post event with dates well before occurrence is also a probability.
"We knew all long, nothing escapes us" -Russian mastermind somewhere in a FSB facility.
Reminds me of 1941 and 2001 for some reason I quite can't put my finger on...
Have you thought about selling strike gum to the military? Its gonna be a lot cheaper than shipping crap in a can.
maybe these Russians are receiving all sorts of mixed messages...coupled with making all sorts of orders....then soldier has to choose which list of things to do and which not to do. So how many orders are being ignored?
This is par for the course in the Soviet/Russian military. Part of it is the autocratic nature of the state. They don't want local commanders who can take real initiative and make decisions.
The other thing to remember is the time leading up to and the beginning of Operation Barbarossa in WWII. The Russians had the intelligence. They had some on their own and they were given intel gleaned from Ultra decrypts that the British had. Stalin was told directly, but he did not want to believe it.
The issue comes that the conscripts are in the majority of cases 18-19 year olds fresh out of school, that think they are the sh*t etc, are forced to go and quite literally waste a year of their life for doing stuff that they never wanted. It is opposed to what i assume in the US military where your sign up and go to military mostly out of your own choice and not by you have to go or you cant even get a job even in private sector.
Putin had made the agreement with North Korea that if either country was attacked that the other would send troops to help. Now Putin has North Koreans fighting for him in Ukraine. Maybe that's why nothing was done.
try mini icecream in caffien use ocean salt and cane sugar
Russia thought it was inconceivable that Ukraine would invade Russia, Russia keeps underestimating what Ukraine can do to them.
It takes training in survival skills to be able to improve and fortify and positions like you describe Combat Veteran, I doubt the Russians go to the trouble of doing that in the three days training their new recruits have.
As a conscript squad leader I had a soldier refusing orders to take a shower or in other manners take care of his personal hygene. Perhaps that is something you have to deal with when your soldiers are not volonteers.
Not taking care of personal health/ hygiene is often a sign of depression.
@@evatripp7788 I think it was more things screwed up with him than simple depression.
He was simply not at an adults level of mental capacity. We later learned he had a 12 year old girlfriend (Conscription age in Sweden is like 18-20 depending a bit on when you are born in the year, the armed forces tries to fit in basic training after you are done with school but before you will be missed in the work force, so basically directly after high school.)
Sounds like the local guys thought the orders were bullshit and or didn't want to do them. Local command knew Moscow wouldn't inspect to see if they followed orders.
Russia wasnt caught off guard. Smart powerful russia knows everything/ video.
Great vid
They probably under rated it.
It doesn’t help when the commanders, steal the soldiers pay! How motivated can an unpaid soldier possibly be? That is not all of your answer, but it’s probably a non-trivial part.
i think they evade rather than refuse
Paul if you are a Stick Leader in the jungle. If you are normal, you don’t just swallow orders from some Dude sitting pretty at field headquarters. Access and take an immediate decision which brings your unit back to base if there is a contact. MP’s don’t arrest KIA’s remember, they bag them. Once threatened with arrest, some NCO too Regimental Police 👮♀️ for indications. Good love punch up ensued. Police involved in the firefight closed the case. They saw for themselves first hand why the NCO disobeyed the order. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
If you're a South Park Fan it sounds like an army of Eric Cartman's. Screw you guys I'm not going to do that..... I'm not playing soldier and if you guys don't like it I'll just go home...... yeah that don't work out so well in building a cohesive military or in being able to repel Invaders, move forward excetera excetera....
Man, I imagined how bewildered you must've been when that soldier refused orders 😂
There's wisdom in ignorance and safety in silence 😑
that means Kursk is a Russian bait. Ukrainians have taken over the crop fields, and the Russians in the east are taking Pokrovsk. 😅😅😅
Yet they have not taken Pokrovsk ………
@@MrAnderson927 they will take him. and not only him.
It's look like they thought that Ukraine wouldn't dare to invade part of Kursk because They needed to protect their territory in the east, but it's kinda stupid not put soldiers there just to make sure
Please put your sponsor segment at the end or start of the video so that its easily skipped :-)
Duh ! That’s why it’s in the Middle
You're leaving out the alcohol aspect of refusing orders. Quite possibly the soldiers inside Russia felt themselves safe enough to drink because "nothing was happening". How do they command soldiers who are literally following down drunk?
it'd be nice if you'd finish the story of the soldier who refused the order
Why you don't talk about ussia ammunition losses
Fsb is not like CIA, which is foreign inteligence. KGB split to FSB ( internal) and SVR ( sluzba vnesnej rszvedki) - this is more like CIA
It always made zero sense to me that Russia didn't have some kind of advance warning of this.
To be fair, I'm not sure even the Ukrainians had a plan for this
months before it happened. That report might have been more of an
"If I were them" thing.
They know Ukraine is limited in going on the offensive, so they arnt that bothered tbh, if the west gave them the tools to go further that would be a different story.
try cereal caffine too
Is strike gum coming to the UK?
So how did Russia get this intelligence? That's the worrying part of this.
Part of the problem seems to be that there is a caste system for Russian foot soldiers. Soldiers in a lower caste come from far reaching oblasts with minority populations and upper caste soldiers come from families with political connections. Lower caste soldiers get thrown into As children of privilege, they are lazy.
Probably disregarded as a feint... all incursions before had been relatively small... and short lived...
Trench are becoming obsolete
I would love to see a battle between Seagall and Putin, both is said to have trained for decades, Seagall would have to cope with a lose if he dosent want to visit a window
This isn’t “new.” This was known and available in open source media the same week the Kursk invasion began.
Your defence position is never finished. That’s FTX1 level shit.
Nothing to do about!!!
Its a very human to dismiss any threats even if plausible. Zelensky also dismissed the Russian invasion. Israel the Hamas attack.
I thought we already knew this lol
With all of this information the red line keeps on moving forward in Ukraine. Why is Ukraine not capitalizing on Russian incompetence. So what does that say about Ukranian intelligence, command and dissipline.
Ukrainians are even worse
If the Army knew, at that level, Gerasimov knew
As it turns out Gerasimov is a traitor
Maybe Putin just didn't care if Ukraine holds the South of Kursk for a while? What's South of Kursk?
Sure, it's CLOSER to important things BUT is there anything really important there? After all,
if Ukrainian troops are busy occupying Kursk, they can't simultaneously defend Ukraine.
Supply lines, logistics !
Bc the land taken in Kursk has no inherent value compared to the mineral wealth in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Putin resembles Stalin in many ways: his crackdown on critics, his removal of popular individuals who could become rivals, and his insistence on only hearing "good news."
Stalin won his war
This is what happens when ofiicers are politicians placed through nepotism instead of career officers.
The exact same thing happened in the Falkland war. Argentina could have won the war if they had actually competent officers. Suboficials were actually very competent tactically, the higher ups were all incompetent strategically, as they were just so corrupt and appointed by favoritism and loyalists to the dictatorship.
The same is happening in Russia.
As an answer to Western long-range missiles, the Russians are going to deploy their Avangards (HGV) very soon...
Alcoholism and drug abuse will factor into refusing orders. As will knowing the person giving them is an ass who will get you killed in 10 minutes.
With everything we have seen out of RU intelligence, they either have the worst Intel ever, or things are intentional
Arrogance brings complacency and bad news is never true
Military intel will report all potential threats up the chain of command and many of those threats never happen, yes they knew what Ukraine could do but at the top level there was a belief that the nuclear threats were working and the west wouldn't allow Ukraine to cross into Russia. Now can Ukraine steadily increase the pressure and prevent the Russians from reorganizing fast enough that is the question in the end it may be Ukraine stretching themselves thin
There might not have been much of anything they could have done to act on that intelligence.