AHAHHAHAHHAHAHAH...seeing China-gonna-collaps video is one of my entertainment when i am extremely bored in China. These guys just wetdreaming desperately in their mind while sitting in their slum of European energy crisis or civil war mass shooting everday in Murica. LOL!
Is China collapse great news for the US? For decades, the US has lamented how poor and pitiful China was yet they're not happy with their high income and global hegemony. What kind of people are living on the N. American continent that wished ill-will against their fellow humans? Today China is still a poor nation by comparison to the world's richest nation so what else do the US wants?
The amount of CHINA COLLAPSE IMMINENT and CHINA IS GOING DOWNHILL content coming out recently is still pretty funny to me. Always happy to see a channel like EE put some actual reason to the noise
Its the same thing that we saw with the sanctions on Russia. “Ruble is going to go to 0”, “Russia about to revolt”, “Russian economy is going to collapse”, “Putin will see a coup”, etc. its all just a hype train to prove the poorly analyzed economists ideas as the truth and fact
I've been hearing about "China's imminent collapse" for over a decade, I remember it began around 2010 or even earlier with the ghost cities and it's been going on ever since. Now with data showing signs that China's economy might be in trouble, some analysts are back at it saying China's economy is on the brick of a mega crisis that could lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party. I don't know if there's any real chance of a mega crisis like this, but a few years ago I came to the conclusion that this hypothesis was as much as a possibility as some people's wishful thinking.
I've heard about the imminent collapse every year since 1979 and the cheerleading got really huge in 1989 until it got defeated and again from 2005.-2008 in lead up to the Olympic games and since then
the collapse topic is begining around 2019，not from 2010,and you know a nation collapse need time,especially a big country like China，it will not happen over a night,it need several years,maybe decade
I gained no new insights after watching the video. Many people have acknowledged about the likely economic collapse of China. That is separate from the unlikely collapse of the CCP government and its control over China where hardly anyone talks about. It is quite obvious the CCP will likely remain in control, at least for a while or longer. Just look at N. Korea. Also, Chinese are unlikely to rebel. Japan have experienced a serious economic contraction/ collapse in the early 90s (people and businesses did feel the heavy pinch), stagnated and has not recovered, though it is doing ok (while accumulating more debt, which impedes growth) since it is already a high income country with strong institutions and many renowned/trusted brands to sustain its export economy. Same cannot be said of China and its situations are far worse. The Soviet Union's economy collapsed years before the country officially collapsed and broke apart. If economic collapse happens to China, people will really feel the economic pinch and the increasing clamp on their personal freedom. They already have for the past few years and it is only the beginning.
As Chinese, there is a funny meme on Chinese social media about how Western media reports on China😂. That is: on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, China will soon collapse; on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, China will be a threat; on Sunday... ummmm, let's think about how to report China next week. Don't worry; we've far gotten used to it. 🤣🤣🤣
Haha thanks for the shout-out. I think it is healthy to see multiple videos on the same topic that take slightly different angles. For example, you are right to point out that Japan style stagnation is much worse for China than it is for Japan. Not entirely sure about the inflation situation though. Hyperinflation is 50% PER MONTH and as you said means game over for the USA... So, I stand by calling hyperinflation in the USA just as ridiculous as China's collapse in 30 days:)
Great video like always. I live in Australia and just came back from a business trip of over 15 cities in China, I may be able to provide some insights in how the country changed since the pandemic. The issues you pointed out are true and are well acknowledged by both the common people and various levels of government. I spoke to people from mayors to lower rank government officers, from cab drivers to exporters, from students to university professors, in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, or small towns with population of 50K. The consensus is that they all know the economy is slowing down, for example, the mayor was worried about not being able to sell enough houses than before, but knows very well that the previous mode was not sustainable, so he is trying to encourage eco-friendly industries, build national parks, modern agriculture in his city. Other cities I visited would have new high-tech industries being built everywhere, the support from the government for new technologies and R&D is unpreceded. So what I can see is China is changing from the old real estate driven economy to a more high-tech high-efficient economy. It's probably not going to turn the whole country around by tomorrow, and it is probably going to be very wasteful and painful, but I think they will make it, just as they did before. One obvious example is how streets look like between the China and Australia, of course except for better and newer roads, probably half of the cars on the streets of any cities are electric, compared to probably less than 10% in countries like Australia or US. This can be regarded as the success of the continuous government support for electric vehicles over the last 5 years. From a consumer point of view, those new brands are quite competitive in any counties, they are not the best ones in the market, but cost effective and with sometimes very cool designs. The economy in China has overcame much worse situations before, I don't think this one is any different. The government has policies for those issues since before the pandemic to prevent actual crisis from happening. The economy will probably going to be stagnant for some time, before it finds another growth curve. Another thing that you didn't mention is the consensus from top to bottom, that they have faith in the country and even to the CCP, which is very rare compared to most other countries in the world now. You may argue that brain wash in an era like this will backfire and eventually people will wake up and demand democracy, but what if they keep deliver in the past four decades? In a situation like this, having faith in the economy is the most powerful tool that China has against decline, when people know things will turn around in a few years time, they will have much higher tolerance to hardships.
A basic difference between the public of China and the west is their attitudes toward their government. Which I would argue leads to most of the misunderstandings and bias toward China. Maybe this is due to the relentless efforts by western msm.
@@frankmerriwell8339 I would say its more or less the same attitudes. However we all are well aware that the most expressive minorities have the biggest presence in msm. In addition, this feeling of difference might be accompanied by difference in cultural norms. Often that not, public expressions are taken more seriously in Asian countries than Western. The misunderstandings and bias are further accelerated from both governments and msms. Both sides are currently launching a variety of conspiracy theories and antagonization. On the China side, there is an increasing effort in control of exchange in communication. Western media are increasingly using CCP's reactions from aggression as justification of CCP's aggression
@@frankmerriwell8339 Also the geopolitical differences/rivalry play a huge role in conjuction with the cultural and societal differences to explain the anti-china bias in my opinion.
Just a suggestion: The impact of expansionary monetary policy on inflation can be markedly affected by whether the economy is primarily financial or industrial in nature, the degree of economic maturity, and the degree of wealth concentration. If we are talking about a young, industrial economy with relatively low levels of wealth concentration, then yes money flows from the central bank, to the banks, and then into new factories, services, research and development. New, successful, products and services encourage more market entrants into a growing market; there is more hiring overall, wages and standards of living go up, and there is classic demand-pull inflation. If, however, we are talking about a mature, financial economy with relatively high levels of wealth concentration, then expansionary monetary policy will tend to behave differently. Plutocratic capture of the government will tend to be greater and the effects of policy will be more oriented to rentiers. Money would flow from the central bank, to the banks, and then into asset classes held by the capital class. While that will lead to particular classes of asset appreciation, it will not necessarily lead to new factories, services, research and development. Therefore, there will be few, if any, new and growing markets leading to wage growth and increased demand from the consumer outside of available consumer credit. Monetary expansion, however, can and is used as a popular excuse for all manner of cartel pricing, rent-seeking behavior, and proletariat austerity.
When a few people hold most of a country's resources, they usually protect their own resources by controlling government power, and then this country is old. The surviving dynamism of this country lies in the fact that the few compete with each other for more. If these few who own the resources reach a compromise with each other, then the majority of the rest of the country will be at an absolute disadvantage. The few who controlling resources and the power of government just will not let their resources be redistributed to the majority no matter what the monetary policy is.They just won't, even if the barbarians is about to invade and loot.
Last few minutes of this video is the key! Collectively speaking, most of us, except those rich politicians, won’t benefit from China’s economic collapse, we will be a part of its collateral damages too. Great video!
I think both our countries leaders maintain a great incentive to keep people like us fighting one another. I think China and the United States can learn some things from one another without jeopardizing our own unique national identities.
@@thelargeemployer I love this idea. As much as you can see "the collapsing of China" on UA-cam, America is also "collapsed" an infinite amount of times on Chinese medias.
I really appreciate how informative this channel is while remaining free from the exaggerations and overly dramatic statements made by many on the internet. Keep up the great content!
I lived and worked in Hong Kong and China for 11 years and I completely agree. The silly bantar about China collapsing is more to do with a desire to see them fall then a reality. They are a huge country with wealth generated over a short period. With that comes corruption, dodgy policies and all the things you have mentioned. I agree China will have a difficult economic time ahead but in the end China is here to stay and will remain a major power on the World stage.
To say the least, China has a boatload of serious issues. Let's get straight to point, the CCP will do whatever it takes to remain in power... Translation it is the Chinese people that will suffer, the housing crisis (Ponzi scheme) a couple trillion dollars they are just kicking the can down the road, huge infrastructure failures, and quite costly, High-Speed rail not profitable at all, the belt and road project extremely costly, inefficient with labor cost and corruption and no doubt the poorer countries will leave China holding the bag (the enormous cost) the ccp's extreme covid-19 lockdowns sent a ripple effect throughout the country, the days when China was the cheap labor hub of the world are probably gone, exports are down sharply, international companies packing up leaving China (hedging their bets) no doubt they see something coming. I'm not saying China's economy is going to collapse, as the Chinese economy dredges forward and we know the CCP is as slow as molasses and as we are beginning to see especially with younger Chinese who are angry, frustrated, losing hope jobs, decent housing and a increasing number young Chinese who are beginning to question the CCP leadership and many refused to join the CCP it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep a lid on what's happening with Chinese economy Chinese people concerned about the quality of life it's sad to say they will bear the brunt (suffer) because of the government's present policies.
Let's hope your video will be in the millions of views like the other ones you've mentioned! And let's hope that EE won't be collapsing in 36 days and 7 hours.
you can live on 14k a year if the cost of living in china is significantly low compared to the west. the average income in here in the UK is significantly less than America (And we are feeling it) but no one says we are a poor country.
That’s because Brits pay higher taxes. This means lower incomes but greater benefits. Americans enjoy a higher disposable income but overall receive less benefits. They key is disposable income. Even in Shanghai where the average income is upwards of twice that of the national average, even in the poorest American states you’ll find that everyone has an iPhone.
I've watched countless videos that say China is going to collapse, from those that say within a year to a decade. But I've noticed that most of the videos are usually delivered by channels or media that have an anti-China track record, and the content is usually very biased. Others are people who present videos that please their viewers (who have negative sentiments on China) to earn money from youtube.
Which channels? Everyone here is saying "countless videos", "those channels", who? Are you afraid to name them? Why can't you be specific? It's impossible to assess your claim if you don't even say who it is against.
@@manuelp7472 a lot of Random channel. Do you write down every video you watched on youtube. Search with key word China Collapse and you'll find a lot of that kind of video. Or you never saw one?
Thanks you for actually bringing this up. I've been trying to ask creators as to how exactly they come up with those ridiculous numbers and so far i've been greeted with silence.
No one seems to have seen the irony, of this video? Dude kept saying, 'China's not going to collapse in the next 27 days, or whatever'. Of Course Not! Russia's economy collapsed way before the "walls fell". 😅 (Edit: It's comparable to try to dig yourself out of debt. Only to prolong that trip to "bankruptcy Court")✌🏽
I sat in on a class at Stanford and the professor who was originally from Taiwan explained the cultural nuance in Asia of the focus being on maintaining what’s been grown which is quite different from our western growth economics model. I think there’s room in the conversation around ‘collapsing economies’ as well to creating understanding around nuanced definitions of “thriving.”
I think a major problem with all of these commentaries on China's future have to do with arguments about whether or not China will "collapse" as opposed to addressing exactly how bad their recession might be. By how much will China's GDP likely contract over the next two years? 5%? 10%? 30%? How much would a 5% contraction in the world's number two economy affect the rest of us vs. a 30% contraction? I think you could safely argue that the United States economy didn't exactly "collapse" between 1929 and 1932, but things got pretty bad both in the US and around the world as a result of that recession. I'm not saying that will be the overall effect of China's recession, but I do have trouble believing that China's economic downturn won't have significant effects on the global economy as a whole.
Good points. Perhaps collapse translates to meaning. Easy money making will be long gone for a long period of time. Earning millions or billions will require work. Brain power, raiky investment...... the easy life or riding the curve are gone, for now.
If in 2022 China's economy contracted by 5% their economy would be at 2021 levels. If in 2022 it contracted by 30% they would be at 2016 levels. The current "slow down" of China's economy is just a slow down in how fast they are still growing. Even in 2019 when the whole world shut down, China's economy still grew by 2.24%. Their worst year is what most countries consider a good year.
Collapse is all subjective- there is no exact definition. What is certain is that it looks increasingly likely that China will have relatively low growth rate moving forward and that they will victim to the middle income trap. Unlike say it’s neighbors Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore who all went from poor to upper income nation over 40-50 year period.
@@shanerooney7288 Thats not how percentages work. If you have something worth say $100 dollars and in increases by 100%, it is now worth $200. but if it loses 50% of its value its back to $100 again. If China' GDP contacted by 30% it would take them far further back than 2017. And thats only if you do believe their numbers. If you do, well there is a word for that.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson China will never get there. It missed that boat by being 30 years late to the party. You have all these exporting nations in the far east and in Europe and South America who have imploding demography. Who is going to buy their products? Not the US, we cant buy it all. Who then? Sub Saharan Africans? I dont think people understand whats down the road with a smaller human footprint. And it wont be slow, it will be a cliff dive. In the next 20 years China will lose anywhere from 500-600 million people. Just from aging. Last year Japan lost 400k people from their total population, and its only going to grow from there. The demography of the current age will not afford China the same path as others before them walked. It just wont be there.
Kind of weird that this is happening, especially seeing younger people talk about it because this is like the fourth or fifth time a big China collapse news cycle has gone on.
I think the problem with the analysis of China collapsing in a certain amount of time is that it sees it from a very Western lens. On one hand, a good parallel would be looking at Japan, and how it prop itself up, but it went through a very long, very slow, and very painful collapse. And on another, the nature of China's command economy means that it is able to prop itself up long after it's supposed to collapse. So in some senses, process of collapses already begun, and people in China are already beginning to feel the consequences. But as far as the country itself collapsing, that's not going to happen. The government has too much power.
When Japan’s economy started stagnating in 1995, Japan GDP per capita was much higher than US’s. Even if China GDP growth rate slows down, it still has a lot of space to grow.
Too much power? that's what we thought about the USSR then look what happened. While I agree with this video too many variables to say what happens to China especially if they pivot.
The collapse theories are based on what would get a government in a Western Democracy thrown out of office but China could literally fall to North Korea levels of starvation and their regime may still cling to power.
Manufacturing and productive output is still the best economic metric of them all and although China has its massive economic issues and impediments, they still have that manufacturing base unmatched against the rest of the world.
Agreed but if people are locked down and unable to work, what good does that infrastructure do? There are video's from Shanghai ports that have been shuttered entirely for over a week now with cargo trucks parked up and down numerous streets in the city, because where else are would they? They've never been grounded to a halt like this before.
You make a good point as long as you can ignore what the manufacturing and productive output are actually for. The majority of China's manufacturing and production is made for internal consumption, and that internal consumption is for infrastructure projects and other subsidized economic initiatives that provide no economic value. They are essentially making and producing useless things way beyond what normal demand actually needs. This model can last as long as the Chinese government is willing to waste money just to keep people employed. It was easy to do when growth was large and it was easy to get foreign capital, but those times look to be over.
Seething? You mean "laughing". We're laughing at a "rising" China. Because it's actually sinking. Pay attention. The COVID lockdowns alone are hammering them. It's f'n hilarious! 🤣
I think the biggest issue with the housing bubble in China is that its combined with population decline. Rapid population readjustment. So instead of real estate losing some value as happens during normal real estate cycles, the loss of value in Chinas case will be extreme.
The negative adjustment will probably not be any different to that being experienced in North America.. Here in Canada, as baby boomers retire we are seeing significant difficulties complicated by the over excessive money printing low cost support of our "too big to fail" corporate interests that are impacting the baby boomer retirement group .... We live in volatile economic times. The low income yield being experienced on investments are proving an uncertain financial risk for a comfortable retirement.
That’s true but most purchases are also second or third homes and are never actually meant to be lived in so it’s hard to tell if it will actually affect it since owned homes are already not being lived in
@@andrethorpe6183 it will be very different because the population collapse is way worse because of the one child policy. So yeah similar to Canada but way worse.
I loved this thank you. I don't understand economics & a lot of other related areas but I watch what I find interesting enough that I can learn. This longer format helped me so much, because so much was explained & brought together. I feel like I understand this video woo!
Wow, this was like a mini docu, great work to you and your team, you guys have been really productive lately. You make it easy for me to follow and understand these topics if though I am clueless about economics😂
Tbh, the way people have been using "collapse" over the decades has made the word, more like stagnation than full blown collapse... been seeing videos since 2016 saying the US will collapse every single year and even from the dawn of our country being made, people have always been saying that. so am totally numb to the word collapse. And in Chinas case i also see stagnation not a collapse.
I moved to China in 2003 and Shanghai has been my home ever since. It has been a great time to be here: Olympics, World Expo and a population full of optimism because every year had been better than the last. The last couple years with COVID, decoupling with the world and the recent lockdowns mark a new phase. This summer I've attended farewell parties for fellow expats on a near weekly basis. I withhold my temptation to write a long diatribe to focus on a couple of points: 1) There may be only one party that shows a united front, but if you look at what various leaders say you will notice divergence. Xi has shifted from a pragmatic, anti-corruption leader to an ideologue. His faction has already said that they think prices of raising children has become too high and are preventing the births that they want to sustain the population/workforce. If you have seen some of Li Keqiang's recent meetings, you know his faction is REALLY worried about getting the economy going again. He basically implored cadres at all levels to pull out all of the stops to get business going again. With nearly 20% unemployment for recent grads, the solution is economic. The CCP is one brand, but they have priority differences and approaches that vary widely. 2) The Chinese protest, and get heard, in their own way. It's different than in the West but it happens nonetheless. From recent "lay flat" trends, to running businesses in COVID with the lobby lights off to avoid fines, the locals are quite resourceful and pragmatic. If there is a loophole or workaround, they will find it and exploit it without hesitation. Unlike other places where the law is the LAW, here it's listen to what they say but then watch what people actually do. Several years ago, China made announcement that they would start issuing fines for running YELLOW traffic lights. Articles around the world talked about it. Guess what? Chinese people hated it, the gov't sensed that and left it on the books without implementing it. Similarly, we've been told for years that we would start paying property tax here in Shanghai. The tax bureau literally has turned people away who showed up trying to pay the tax because there was too much push back after it was announced and they relented. Do people have less freedoms here than in many Western countries? Yes. Are they powerless sheep who eat up propaganda and do everything they are told? Not even remotely.
I feel like if the Party collapses and "New China" fractures into less-centralized governance, the ones least who will be least surprised would be 1-point-something billion Chinese people.
Wuow, it seems that Chinese people are actually real human beings who would've guess /j What you're saying is pretty important mate, and should be known more. Thx for the info
I agree with you 110%. I moved here to work in 2006. Still here. I’m still working even harder. However, yes , I find real people show their feelings in a very different way from westerners. People have their opinions. There are ways of showing discontent. People here are just wanting to survive and provide for their family. They are not stupid or never sheep. But they are aware that in recent years police powers have increased. It’s not as simple looking in like a snap shot. as most westerners think. Most Channels do not understand the dynamics of real people here. It’s much more complex. And silly Sweeping statements of contrition are totally wrong. I just hope things are going to be ok. We are all worried. And starting to prepare. It’s a very worrying time.
There is also a difference between Japan and China is that China has a stronger military force than Japan and it is hard to force china to sign deal similar with Plaza Accord that force of appreciation of JPY making jp company less competitive.
One thing also worth mentioning is that China was never occupied by the west post war. They don't have the strings to pull it down hard like they did in Japan.
Plaza Accords didn't stop Japan, that was something they could have easily overcome, they were still booming years after in fact. What stopped Japan was Japan's Demographics. Their ability to grow domestically peaked, then stagnated, and then slumped for awhile as their labor pool ran out and they had to pursue other options.
What’s worse than the Plaza Accord was the Japanese semiconductor industry getting squashed completely. It was a pillar of the Japanese economy and high hopes were given for high tech fields like such to carry the Japanese growth well into the 21st century. But nope, Japan was simply too small in size and weak compared to the US to withstand a combination of political, economical, technological, and military struggle.
Plaza Acccord? Japan and Germany were both part of the plaza accord and look at how well Germany has done. I’m addition, Japan had its best 5yr gdp growth since 1960’s after signing the plaza accord in the mid 80’s. Stop spreading misinfo What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
@@thomaszhang3101 stop spreading misinfo. What political and military and economic struggle enacted by the U.S. lead to Japans economic downfall? The video did great job of explaining all the massive issues Chinas faces form demographic to housing to banking. 50 centers just want to spread disinfo What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
I just LOVE how you say ‘mate’ at the end of your videos, it’s just so quintessentially Australian! Plus you’re always balanced towards reality rather than clickbait Touché mate!!
Great video. You missed one crucial aspect though. The reason for all this unrest was because the state backed banks and state backed builders decided to lower the price for home buyers. This inturn made everyone who have already have mortgage ask the companies if they can lower the price for existing customers as well, they didn't. This resulted in people stop paying their mortgages that is now threatening the chinese economy. The reason why the chinese state lowered the price was because the market was crashing due to all the stress from failing companies like, evergrande. So usurping the old aboned projects to stimulate the economy is not an option since the money is already spent. Besides that great video, as always a good summery of the situation and it's aspects.
Demographicsos also a topic that isnt discussed much neither. The chinese population is aging fast. In about 30 years or less, the population will be hald of what it is today, unless people start having more babies! Sure the population has room to keep working and manufacturing for the next decade or so, but that rate of those enreri f the cities is slowing. This slow growth of working population? Means they will need to have immigration much the same as western countries. How many people move to china?
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 AI is quite advance in China and the Chinese do not detest machines. In fact, there are robots installed in places to replace labour already. A smaller population combined with machinery labour means a better life quality.
@@tempestmars123 artificial intelligence, works in a society that has wealth, scarcity and poverty. If the chinese are not wealthy, nor impoverished, what will drive AI investment?
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 literaly every video talking about china mentions demographics in them, 99% of the time lol. Actualy, Videos on the future of Eastern Europe fail to mention that at all, even if certain countries have a failling population RIGHT NOW
I really like how the videos uses the sources (news articles) to help justify the argument. It really adds legitimacy to the videos and adds value compared to scare mongering ones. Keep up the work and thanks for these videos. I’d like a speculation one about if where the west is going in terms of higher rates and where that will lead us.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in said news articles simply by virtue of them being news articles. That’s not to say they can’t be right, but simply saying “news articles are cited therefore this is correct” isn’t proof of anything unless we take a super deep dive into each article to judge its accuracy.
Joseph Schumpeter, economist, studied how innovations created new industries that wiped out their predecessors, causing great pain to those invested in obsolete business models. The auto industry killed the horse and buggy, not to mention horse breeders, blacksmiths, buggy whip makers, etc. He called it creative destruction. While different from the boom and bust business cycle, the two are similar. China is headed for tough times in the near term, but I wouldn't count them out in the medium and long term. They and Americans are a lot alike when it comes to inventiveness and entrepreneurial culture. We rise and fall and rise again. We come back renewed. That is our shared nature. Oh, and one other thing I noticed among my many educated Chinese friends. We had a similar sense of humor. I'm not sure what this means in the scheme of things. But I think it's noteworthy. 20:24 e
Not really everyone, just the countries that need to import food. Food exporters like the US can choose to prioritize their own people over exporting their food. I've heard India is doing something like that right now, and I think alot more countries will follow along if things start to get bad enough to cause food insecurity
@@karenwang313 true, the real loser would be Africa unfortunately, through no fault of their own. The Americas, India, Russia and SEA are relatively self sufficient. China has massive reserves. Japan, SK and Europe can afford the higher prices.
@@duckpotat9818 Exacerbated by the war in the Ukraine, a huge food bowl for Africa offline. China has banned exports of Urea too. There goes the world supply of fertiliser. It's a perfect storm.
13:30 China has urbanized significantly and still is in this process. Which is one of the key reasons for why real estate plays such a huge role in China.
A lot of evidence is actually pointing to a de-urbanising or at least a reduction in the urban population. It is complicated because the stats are notoriously unreliable thanks to the Hukou system which means many urban residents have not been counted as such. A lot of evidence (eg import of baby formula) indicates that the birth rate has fallen even more significantly that what the government has admitted. Some cities (eg DongGuan) have been particularly hard hit by workers travelling back to inland areas and not returning because of fear of travel difficulties/lock downs thanks to "zero covid". The size of the real estate bubble is MASSIVE. Look at the cost of homes relative to incomes in a city like ShenZhen (something like 48 years of income to "buy" a home that you only get a 72 year lease on). Unfortunately I don't believe the government is about to fall. Think of it like North Korea as their controls over the population have ramped up. That said I do believe we are seeing a VERY significant economic collapse although it is more likely to be a balloon that gradually deflates than suddenly bursts. Economics don't account for the importance of face and Xi JinPing is putting his insane "zero covid" policy ahead of common sense because of it. It is obviously economically destructive. Xi is a true believer in Marxist economics. He has indicated the economy should move towards more state enterprise and less private. Think about that and then think do you still think they won't have serious economic problems?!?
There is a funny Chinese saying: "An impoverished camel is still bigger than a horse", which I think applies very well here. Something that size is not going to go down easily, quickly, or quietly. If it does, anyone tied to it, and in today's globalized economy, that is practically everyone, will likely suffer injury as it thrashes on the way down.
Isn't China the only economy in 2020-2021 that didn't go into deficit and actually see growth? Technically recession didn't happen to China. But to most other countries in the world.
Love that you keep your integrity when making videos. Many of the "China is collapsing" channels are blatantly ridiculous. I've been on a mass spree of telling youtube to never recommend those channels again. EE, on the other hand, is always a bastion of reasonability.
China has gone through many already, this is not the single one, but must be the worst one. Also, there was a crisis around 2010, their solution is real estate. So you see the bubble today.
If you think that you should actually study history. China has the same fluctuation of ideologies and regimes as everyone else. If anything, the US has it's current system since 1776, China since 1949.
in fact, people spoke about the same words about Russia before the war, Russia has many reserves, a lot of opportunities for growth and it will grow or stagnate slowly, but after the start of the war, the Russian economy fell by 10-20%. China can grow and develop, but if it starts a war for Taiwan or something like that, then China can lose even more than Russia. China's economy depends more on the political decisions of their leaders today.
thanks for making this, because as you said, there are SO many articles writing the same side...that's probably not going to happen. A more balanced analysis like this is a breath of fresh air.
I'm just commenting to congratulate you on the map of Africa, which you, unlike a lot of people and the media, got correct. (I'm looking at Morocco's borders)
@@Knnnkncht The dispute in which the Algerian military regime is arming and financing a militia of slavers and child soldiers to unjustly claim a southern Moroccan province.
@@adilator Didn't Morocco invade in 1975? Called the "green march". And it was during the cold war, USA helped out because they didn't want the area to become communist. Why exactly is it Morocco territory?
@@shanerooney7288 Because the kingdom of Morocco has been around for centuries, unlike the fake state of Algeria that was created on kabil land by the french occupiers. The green march was a peaceful march by Moroccan civilians to free the southern provinces of Morocco from spanish occupation. This is clearly above your head and you're very misinformed.
To the west China’s competitive edge might always be seen as “cheap labour producing all the plastic junk in your home”… however to us in Southeast Asia we see china’s competitive edge as providing scale and speed. I wonder how you see that component in the grand scheme of things and china’s fate and role on the world stage.
China already grew way beyond "cheap labour producing all plastic junk". They're now an innovative country. They're mobile phone brand are known to be very durable and innovative. DJI hold 70% of the world's consumer drone market share. BYD known for inventing BYD blade battery which is safer than traditional battery for EV. Even Tesla is using the blade battery for the Model Y that is in production in Germany. BYD Atto 3 is also the 2nd best selling EV car in Australia and New Zealand. They also managed to make themself a space station all by themself.
Your last point about power vacuums is exceptionally pertinent in more than just China's case. Without a clear plan of succession, regime change rarely turns out well for anyone involved, especially when it is solely predicated on getting the current people in charge out of power. This is true of dictatorships and democracies alike.
My take on this are 3 things on which you need to look out for : 1. The amount of dollar reserves China has because most of the internal stuff can be solved by printing money but it comes with a price. 2. The whole how China position itself against the west and how the west react to it. 3. The more surprising aspect how insane Chinas demand on resources is not just iron ore and coal and bauxit (which you can easily scale up), but food and wood which can not be scaled. Basically if things get any tougher because less supply or higher demand(not just from China) things in certain sectors will cost more = inflation which will then bite into 1
I think you are mistaken China doesn't put itself against the west, China position itself against everyone in the world. There are few countries that do not have any disputes with China like Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.
LOL.. Too many "economic experts" which brings humiliation to US experts !!! China has succeed, just look at the number of nations involved in BRI means they trust China more than US. That's simple say
It's a good video but some info is inaccurate. China is one of biggest grain producers and accounts for a quarter of total global food production. The food it imports is mainly for raising living standards. For example, those Chinese import huge amount of soybean to feed pig. They also import large portion of world production in high end products e.g. lobster, shrimp, and salmon.
A State collapsing is never good those living there, nor for anyone else depending on that States influence on its surroundings. Governments aren’t good or bad, they’re governments.
@@shmeckle666 literally the worst possible take. You’re telling me the Khmer Rouge and Nazi Germany were not criminal and evil governments? Like “all governments are evil” at least has a leg to stand on unlike “all governments are banal.”
@@shmeckle666 researchers have found that peasants in the post roman world were actually more healthy than peasants living in the late Roman Empire because the state was so dysfunctional it was like a parasite latched on to the populace.
@@cringlator they have bad policies, yeah. Policies that are morally bad or functionally bad (ineffective). Any more into the morality of a State and we’ll get into relativity. What policies are bad according to whom, and why. So, yeah, Governments can have morally “bad” or ineffectively “bad” policies. Don’t really see the point of the clarification either in terms of foreign relations and policy implementation. I didn’t say all governments are banal.
China is like the black knight from Monty Python series. No matter what crisis hits them like the Ever Grande crisis and Zero Covid Policy they will just tell the world that it's "Just a flesh wound".
Economies don't just collapse like a poorly built building. They spiral. They spiral up and down. What's happened isn't some massive change, it's that the spiral is no longer going upwards but downwards. A big change yes, but it will be years at the least until we really start to see things change.
The questions you ask in each video are usually spot on with the questions that I've asked myself in the recent past, and your analysis and explanation of the underlying principles is always informative! Great video as always.
I'm an economist who has watched every video, so I know there were great and weak ones. But this was definitely the best. Complete and with a looot of information. Congratulations on the great work!
@@prasanth2601both the US and China are healthy competition but the US Empire always have a trick up their sleeves. I really think they are years ahead of the world especially technologically. China’s aging population is a problem too as China’s economy is a lot of productivity and manufacturing. East Asia in general is aging. India will have a growing economy but the problem with them is wealth inequality and humanitarian issues. They can have $5 trillion GDP but their income or GDP per capita will be around $12,000 USD per year
Entirely agree! And I speak as someone who, once upon a time, *did* predict that the Chinese housing economy was about to collapse and bring the rest of the economy with it. This was ~2011. I would love to see a slow transition to a more sustainable economic model (i.e., the closest to a free market that the Chinese Party can allow), but I don't think that's likely with the current leadership. So for now, the most likely outcome is neither crash nor continued astronomical growth, but a slow and steady unraveling of key aspects of the Chinese economy.
the countries that are getting cut-off are simply reorganizing themselves into their own regional bloc. The west is essentially helping speed up the process of regionalisation
Yes but the regionalization that China is grouping with are a bunch of slow growing, already highly aged populations. Just look at the GDP growth rates of the countries (besides India) in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
When you show China imports by country, I wish you’d have included it as a relative figure to their economies overall. A loss of 160 billion worth if exports will hit Australia an order of magnitude harder than a loss of 180 billion will hurt the US (around 10% and less than 1% of their GDPs, respectively), and Japan (~4%) and the EU (~1%) losses hover somewhere between that. (Note GDP estimates vary by source, with the EU not actually being a country so having the loosest estimate, and GDP may not be the best thing to compare Chinese imports to, but I think it can at least serve to illustrate the importance of comparing such losses relative to the economy in question, rather than just listening a set of similar dollar amounts for countries with very dissimilar economic sizes)
Just over here, observing how you and Money&Macro are making each other better by calling each other out and then each trying to improve their points. You know, how things *should* be.
The problem with the argument at the end of the video, is that we had the same approach of patiently being generous such as with Russia for decades waiting for this positive gradual change domestically, but it never happened on the contrary, it got worse.
That is why we should destabilise it much much faster. The ccp is morally corrupt. We need to counter their influence asap. Just like how we need to Counter russians influences. This is the new cold war and we should deny china our markets and tech.
Maybe because of the complete purchase of all the previously state owned industries by the oligarchs for pennies on the dollar after the liberalization of the economy? Maybe because of the resulting economic collapse after the complete failure of Yeltsins privatization shock-therapy? Maybe because food and other necessities that previously had controlled prizes now became to expensive for a majority of Russian to buy? Maybe because the first thing that happened after Russia became somewhat democratic was a coup by the president where tanks where literally firing upon their parliament? Like the idea that nations magically become more democratic from market liberalization is just not true, the state Russia is currently in is a direct result of what free-market policies did to their economy.
I agree I don't think China will collapse but it does face years of stagnation. It has also been destroying relationships with the EU and US and others which will only increase the pain. The thing I worry about the most is the Taiwan issue. If China is feeling backed into a corner it might lash out. I never thought Russia would actually invade Ukraine until they did. Hopefully China learns the right lesson from Russia and doesn't try it. There is still a worry in the back of mind that China might invade and it would be much worse than the Russia Ukraine war.
An invasion of Taiwan would be especially crippling for Mainland China once the crossfire scares off the civilian ships -- Western opposition wouldn't even need to control the seas, just launch enough return fire to make it unsafe to enter. China is too polluted to feed itself and high-sulfur coal is useless to modern military operations. By the end of a year most the PLA might be deployed on the Mainland to quash internal uprisings over rationed tainted food and petitions for answers about why their only sons disappeared on deployment.
@@prouddegenerates9056 i see one alternative universe where russia didn't attack The one the US accepted russia in NATO instead of refufing it I guessed you prefer having ennemies than friend, i mean you prefer to be friend with people funding directly daesh and attacking countrys and your own country like the saudis, quatar, EAU
Wow....people should questioning this kind of content instead, why they massively say that china will collapse and why they persistent about it. It's kinda sus
You got to remember, there are economist and there are legitimate economist who dig deeper they rid themselves quickly of adulterated numbers and base their assessments on factual information... But to continue to borrow money do repay old loans and interest is eventually a financial disaster, like a dog chasing his tail! China has enormous financial issues, we're not talkin billions, but trillions and the way their system is setup there's no way they can repay, my guess is they will kick this can down the road it will give them time but will solve anything?
Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in April and need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 65.
You should have started a long time ago, and perhaps you should seek the assistance of a financial advisor to assist you in developing a viable and reachable plan.
@@gracehunter454 Definitely! All of this happened in less than a year after Janet Young Kang told me what to do. I started with less than $110,000, and now I'm about 22,000 short of having a quarter million dollars.
Your last part is so true. Remember the last time in the early to mid 1900's, when a certain country face complete and utter collapse? And people were desperate? I'm thinking about that one mustache Austrian who took over beer country basically in an instant. Lol
I love when he talks about the theory of monetary policy as if Keyensian economics is the obvious bog standard, the only way to structure a healthy and normalized economy. Never once has he considered maybe the "medicine" is also the ailment.
@@LaowaiDaveJCP Lol, usual kangladeshi hating on indians for no reason. It's very rich coming from someone who thinks "animal spirits" will lead us out of every recession. The Keynesian model is completely rigged in the favor of politicians and businessmen with hardly any weight of reciprocative responsibilities.
"sorry to disappoint" I don't think I'd want that to happen no matter what. The industrial and economical consequences would be horrible in any western country thank you very much.
The CCP are the biggest threat to democracy and human rights at the moment. Despite the economic fallout, their downfall would be a good thing for all of humanity in the long-term. And like EE and other rational commentators said, it will not be happening soon.
@@generalsociety9607 Ideals are great and all,, but the consequences of a full economical collapse in china are not as simple as you not receiving a new phone. It would be widespread economical destabilization, unprecedented lack of industry as well as starvation in some places. I don't rightfully care about what's right and wrong faced with issues even touching on those points, so again: Nope. Please hold together.
@@Tyiriel "not as simple as you not receiving a new phone" you state this incredibly first-world problem, assuming I'm from the first world, but I'm not. I've lived through economic turmoil, frequent blackouts, sewage-infested tap water, civil strife, and riots stemming from political instability. Also, since you mentioned the word "ideal," my ideal scenario is not for China to collapse. It's for it to peacefully transition into a democracy. But even I'm rational (and cynical) enough to know that that's never happening. UA-cam's comment section debates can get rather ugly (especially about politics), so I'd just like to say that this is merely a difference of opinion. As such, I find your point of view perfectly valid, even if I don't entirely agree with it. Have a good day.
I like that you put that it's not going to collapse "Yet." Because we all know that eventually every economy will collapse. Even the US. It is inevitable.
Great video EE. Most news media of any kind sells itself through these extreme headlines. I appreciate the reasoned, objective approach despite personal chagrin over China's system of governance. The U.S. has been predicted to collapse so many times in my life and as you say, it's really often a controlled up and down with a steady increase upward. I do agree that China is perhaps less equipped to manage this than a country like the US, but that doesn't mean world ending catastrophic collapse. Great video.
I'm confused. If a 40-year property bubble, bank runs, local government revenue cessation, permanent economic stimulus, international decoupling, global commodity inflation, extreme corruption, rising unemployment, foreign capital flight, and population lockdowns won't precipitate an economic catastrophe, then what would? Economics is a force of nature, and a system that hasn't allowed for small periodic economic corrections can't help but experience a large one.
China popped the bubble themselves with the three red line policy, so it's not like other bubbles where things were allowed to go to extremes before a catastrophic burst.
I think it boils down to what you define as " economic catastrophe". Like said in the video, people never go really rich in the first place, so there isn't much to fall to. Corruption and unemployment exist in pretty much every other countries too and nothing changes. Property bubble will likely get inflated away... They have cheap energy from russia, and industry that can produce things, they have pretty much control on all of south asia, and are probably looking at better next years compared to europe. As long as they are not involved in war, I'm not sure anything qualifying as a "catastrophe" will happen.
that's what I thought. I came to the conclusion of China going to a collapse before any vide about x days until China collapses, due to the multitude of inter and external problems in China. I mean throughout history this is how nations fell and this seemed an indicator of some kind of sweeping change. and the population of china seems more and more accepting of the idea of some kind of sweeping change. especially with the zero COVID policy.
Great video! Interesting to hear you line of thought about corruption. What do you think about corruption in the US? Is corruption legalised in US through lobbying? Hence is it more or less corrupt than China? And following this line of thought is there much democracy left in US given that any ellected government protects more corporate interests rather than its population?
I live in China, and my students and coworkers have become surprisingly local about how crappy the situation is becoming here. Granted, they are upper middle class Shanghainese, but still… Not a collapse, but hard times are written on the wall.
I think what gets left out if the analysis is the state of the world. Times are going to get hard everywhere. Hard to say if it will be worse in China or not.
I live and work in China. Moved here from County Durham, England in November 2019. It's been an experience, and economically speaking, compared to back home I'm much better off here in China.
I watched one of those ‘China is Going to Collapse Soon’ videos. It didn’t sound well researched at all, but that sensationalism is selling well. I’m glad you’re taking a more balanced way to approach things and actually take your time to warn the viewers what China’s collapse would change in their lives as well
Frankly, it makes me really upset to see people constantly hoping for the CCP to fail. I get it, people don't see eye to eye with the decisions they've made throughout history... but the impact to the people of China would be absolutely catastrophic... Too many armchair politician/strategists out there.
Most people don't realize that if China does indeed collapse, the rest of the world will also suffer greatly, because of huge reliance on finished goods from China. Additionally, replacing China with other countries with lower wages isnt as easy as westerners think. It will take at the very least a few years and massive initial investments to buy/lease land and build factories. The cost of time and money to sacrifice is just too high.
I met some of the most wonderful Chinese people. I hope CCP would encourage entrepreneurship and puts its people first more. It's really such a waste to be so stifled by the CCP. The difference between Taiwan and China is the government and Taiwan is doing tremendously well, one of the richest countries in the world the 4th if adjusted for purchasing power. This is what Chinese ppl are missing out on. Switch out the government and the people will be a lot richer. The ppl at the top screw over the ppl at the bottom in China. They only care about their own wealth and don't mind leaving the rest to suffer.
@@user-lxkwyqlChinese people are not missing out. They have much more advanced infrastructure and transportation compared to Taiwan. They have entrepreneurship. Where do you think all those millionaire and companies come from taking over the world. China cares about the people. The HSR and subways all lose money. You know why? China thinks for its people and long term.
Hi. Im from China and studied economics in Aus. Totally agree with you mentioned in this video. One thing I want brought up is the exchange rate. When you compare China to Japan, you are using US dollar, however, we need to remeber the real exchange rate for USD/CNY is not 7 as we saw at spot. Since PPP means more.
Thanks for making this video. I too was tired of the videos about China collapsing in days.... As much as we all want the regime to fail, it is not going to happen. They actually have long term plans, and have accumulated a lot of wealth for their plans. What did happen is that the recent events (from recent agressive politics to covid, etc) started a new trend, or awekening. Countries and Companies world wide have come to a realization that the CCP will not allow an outside company to have their cake and eat it too. All foreign companies were welcome, but with the condition that they were owned jointly with a local companty. Once the chinese learn the technology/knowledge, foreign companies are disposible. Manufacturing and development have reached a peak in china, so the ccp does not actually need that much from foreign companies anymore. For those who do not frequently travel to china, I will tell you this: Foreigners are not welcome anymore.
YOU may want the Chinese regime to fall. But the Chinese people don't. Chinese people are human. And as humans they like being on the winning team. China is growing economically, militarily, more global influence, and they're doing so without waging war across multiple middle eastern countries. You greatly underestimate the Chinese people and their resolve to NOT be "contained" or have the West "stop the rise of China".
really ? me despite being indian (whose country has direct rivalry and has fought two wars against china) did not encounter any hostility in china ; people mostly had a curious reaction..... i think chinese are still welcoming but maybe that's just me (in reference to @Ramon's last statement)
Fantastic video. The lessons in the end about the click-bait and collapse are very important, those hoping for them need to go outside and touch grass. Keep up the good work.
You can't tell what's "true and proper" unless you do your own research though, and even then that's only your best judgement. Good intentions don't guarantee mistakes aren't made or details missed. Which isn't a comment about this video or channel, just think everything should be taken with its due salt.
Keep exploring at brilliant.org/economicsexplained/. Get started for free, and hurry-the first 200 people get 20% off an annual premium subscription.
Keep up the good work. Always love your neutral pov compare to all the other economist channel that always look to the extreme
Sorry to dissapoint us?! There is nothing close to the amount sinophobia in western society except maybe for Russophobia.
China won’t collapse but may become the next Japan or stuck in the middle income trap.
Exactly, thank you for this video. I don't expect China to collapse anytime soon tbh
The FBX index graph at 7 minutes 40 seconds may have the x-axis labels mixed up. Also, the data series "This year" should be labeled 2022 for clarity.
According to some UA-cam channels, China’s economy was supposed to collapse 45 times in the last week.
AHAHHAHAHHAHAHAH...seeing China-gonna-collaps video is one of my entertainment when i am extremely bored in China. These guys just wetdreaming desperately in their mind while sitting in their slum of European energy crisis or civil war mass shooting everday in Murica. LOL!
Well, I think MBS/Saudi Arabia (With Their Oil reserve left in 5 years by some western experts...., bad images about Neom-Line City) can relate that.
Love the videos that even give a set time period for the collapse, like 25 days.
LOL, it just brought such humiliation to US experts to its lowest level
Is China collapse great news for the US? For decades, the US has lamented how poor and pitiful China was yet they're not happy with their high income and global hegemony. What kind of people are living on the N. American continent that wished ill-will against their fellow humans? Today China is still a poor nation by comparison to the world's richest nation so what else do the US wants?
The amount of CHINA COLLAPSE IMMINENT and CHINA IS GOING DOWNHILL content coming out recently is still pretty funny to me. Always happy to see a channel like EE put some actual reason to the noise
its just american Psy ops. against China.
China will explode in 3 seconds!?!?!?
Its the same thing that we saw with the sanctions on Russia. “Ruble is going to go to 0”, “Russia about to revolt”, “Russian economy is going to collapse”, “Putin will see a coup”, etc. its all just a hype train to prove the poorly analyzed economists ideas as the truth and fact
YES CHINA IS JUST USING SOFT POWER AND ECONOMICS NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
Jake Tran and Business Basics laying it real thick fr
I've been hearing about "China's imminent collapse" for over a decade, I remember it began around 2010 or even earlier with the ghost cities and it's been going on ever since. Now with data showing signs that China's economy might be in trouble, some analysts are back at it saying China's economy is on the brick of a mega crisis that could lead to the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party.
I don't know if there's any real chance of a mega crisis like this, but a few years ago I came to the conclusion that this hypothesis was as much as a possibility as some people's wishful thinking.
I've heard about the imminent collapse every year since 1979 and the cheerleading got really huge in 1989 until it got defeated and again from 2005.-2008 in lead up to the Olympic games and since then
the collapse topic is begining around 2019，not from 2010,and you know a nation collapse need time,especially a big country like China，it will not happen over a night,it need several years,maybe decade
@@travis8432 nah its been longer than that
I gained no new insights after watching the video. Many people have acknowledged about the likely economic collapse of China. That is separate from the unlikely collapse of the CCP government and its control over China where hardly anyone talks about. It is quite obvious the CCP will likely remain in control, at least for a while or longer. Just look at N. Korea. Also, Chinese are unlikely to rebel. Japan have experienced a serious economic contraction/ collapse in the early 90s (people and businesses did feel the heavy pinch), stagnated and has not recovered, though it is doing ok (while accumulating more debt, which impedes growth) since it is already a high income country with strong institutions and many renowned/trusted brands to sustain its export economy. Same cannot be said of China and its situations are far worse. The Soviet Union's economy collapsed years before the country officially collapsed and broke apart. If economic collapse happens to China, people will really feel the economic pinch and the increasing clamp on their personal freedom. They already have for the past few years and it is only the beginning.
章家敦在2001年就写了 中国即将崩溃。
随后的十几年里，他成了复读机。
As Chinese, there is a funny meme on Chinese social media about how Western media reports on China😂. That is:
on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, China will soon collapse;
on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, China will be a threat;
on Sunday... ummmm, let's think about how to report China next week.
Don't worry; we've far gotten used to it. 🤣🤣🤣
哈哈哈，太真实了
If we believe western medias, China's economy has been in a kind of sustainable collapse in the past 20 years.
油管诞生那天气中国就经济奔溃，每年如此
Lol it will collapse one day eventually because there has never been a one-party state that lasted more than 80 years
总有傻子会相信，但听多了总有人会厌烦，厌烦的人总有一天会戳穿这样的恶性谎言，更多的时候不是中国倒台崩坏，而是西方人（政治对立国）希望中国倒台，这个愿望已经持续了十几年了，台海战争都好几年了，哪怕一开始听了会恐慌，但现在听得我耳朵都起茧子了还是屁事没有，媒体的一贯手法，吸引眼球，在放大夸张，糊弄愿意被糊弄的人，想知道真相的人其实没有多少，要不然也不会有所谓bbc美国之音这样的媒体存在了。
Haha thanks for the shout-out. I think it is healthy to see multiple videos on the same topic that take slightly different angles. For example, you are right to point out that Japan style stagnation is much worse for China than it is for Japan.
Not entirely sure about the inflation situation though. Hyperinflation is 50% PER MONTH and as you said means game over for the USA... So, I stand by calling hyperinflation in the USA just as ridiculous as China's collapse in 30 days:)
Jup
Hey Boss
@@schentler hello hello
I love your channel
@@RafaelW8 thanks!!
As someone who works in markets, this doco is spot on and impressively put together. You put most paid-for research to shame!
Thanks!
Love the longer video format, allows for everything to be discussed more throughly, instead of just an overview.
Great video like always. I live in Australia and just came back from a business trip of over 15 cities in China, I may be able to provide some insights in how the country changed since the pandemic. The issues you pointed out are true and are well acknowledged by both the common people and various levels of government. I spoke to people from mayors to lower rank government officers, from cab drivers to exporters, from students to university professors, in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, or small towns with population of 50K. The consensus is that they all know the economy is slowing down, for example, the mayor was worried about not being able to sell enough houses than before, but knows very well that the previous mode was not sustainable, so he is trying to encourage eco-friendly industries, build national parks, modern agriculture in his city. Other cities I visited would have new high-tech industries being built everywhere, the support from the government for new technologies and R&D is unpreceded. So what I can see is China is changing from the old real estate driven economy to a more high-tech high-efficient economy. It's probably not going to turn the whole country around by tomorrow, and it is probably going to be very wasteful and painful, but I think they will make it, just as they did before. One obvious example is how streets look like between the China and Australia, of course except for better and newer roads, probably half of the cars on the streets of any cities are electric, compared to probably less than 10% in countries like Australia or US. This can be regarded as the success of the continuous government support for electric vehicles over the last 5 years. From a consumer point of view, those new brands are quite competitive in any counties, they are not the best ones in the market, but cost effective and with sometimes very cool designs. The economy in China has overcame much worse situations before, I don't think this one is any different. The government has policies for those issues since before the pandemic to prevent actual crisis from happening. The economy will probably going to be stagnant for some time, before it finds another growth curve.
Another thing that you didn't mention is the consensus from top to bottom, that they have faith in the country and even to the CCP, which is very rare compared to most other countries in the world now. You may argue that brain wash in an era like this will backfire and eventually people will wake up and demand democracy, but what if they keep deliver in the past four decades? In a situation like this, having faith in the economy is the most powerful tool that China has against decline, when people know things will turn around in a few years time, they will have much higher tolerance to hardships.
Faith in the CCP is tied to its success. It keeps promising growth, improving conditions, and modernization. And it keeps delivering.
A basic difference between the public of China and the west is their attitudes toward their government. Which I would argue leads to most of the misunderstandings and bias toward China. Maybe this is due to the relentless efforts by western msm.
@@frankmerriwell8339 I would say its more or less the same attitudes. However we all are well aware that the most expressive minorities have the biggest presence in msm. In addition, this feeling of difference might be accompanied by difference in cultural norms. Often that not, public expressions are taken more seriously in Asian countries than Western. The misunderstandings and bias are further accelerated from both governments and msms. Both sides are currently launching a variety of conspiracy theories and antagonization. On the China side, there is an increasing effort in control of exchange in communication. Western media are increasingly using CCP's reactions from aggression as justification of CCP's aggression
@@GodwynDi ... as is fear of it.
@@frankmerriwell8339 Also the geopolitical differences/rivalry play a huge role in conjuction with the cultural and societal differences to explain the anti-china bias in my opinion.
Just a suggestion: The impact of expansionary monetary policy on inflation can be markedly affected by whether the economy is primarily financial or industrial in nature, the degree of economic maturity, and the degree of wealth concentration.
If we are talking about a young, industrial economy with relatively low levels of wealth concentration, then yes money flows from the central bank, to the banks, and then into new factories, services, research and development. New, successful, products and services encourage more market entrants into a growing market; there is more hiring overall, wages and standards of living go up, and there is classic demand-pull inflation.
If, however, we are talking about a mature, financial economy with relatively high levels of wealth concentration, then expansionary monetary policy will tend to behave differently. Plutocratic capture of the government will tend to be greater and the effects of policy will be more oriented to rentiers. Money would flow from the central bank, to the banks, and then into asset classes held by the capital class. While that will lead to particular classes of asset appreciation, it will not necessarily lead to new factories, services, research and development. Therefore, there will be few, if any, new and growing markets leading to wage growth and increased demand from the consumer outside of available consumer credit. Monetary expansion, however, can and is used as a popular excuse for all manner of cartel pricing, rent-seeking behavior, and proletariat austerity.
When a few people hold most of a country's resources, they usually protect their own resources by controlling government power, and then this country is old. The surviving dynamism of this country lies in the fact that the few compete with each other for more. If these few who own the resources reach a compromise with each other, then the majority of the rest of the country will be at an absolute disadvantage. The few who controlling resources and the power of government just will not let their resources be redistributed to the majority no matter what the monetary policy is.They just won't, even if the barbarians is about to invade and loot.
@@ThomasVWorm That explains why Xi has been claping billionairs and real state developers for the last two years.
Last few minutes of this video is the key! Collectively speaking, most of us, except those rich politicians, won’t benefit from China’s economic collapse, we will be a part of its collateral damages too. Great video!
I think both our countries leaders maintain a great incentive to keep people like us fighting one another. I think China and the United States can learn some things from one another without jeopardizing our own unique national identities.
@@thelargeemployer I love this idea. As much as you can see "the collapsing of China" on UA-cam, America is also "collapsed" an infinite amount of times on Chinese medias.
A 4K TV will become insanely out of reach? Oh no how will I ever survive!
I really appreciate how informative this channel is while remaining free from the exaggerations and overly dramatic statements made by many on the internet. Keep up the great content!
I lived and worked in Hong Kong and China for 11 years and I completely agree. The silly bantar about China collapsing is more to do with a desire to see them fall then a reality. They are a huge country with wealth generated over a short period. With that comes corruption, dodgy policies and all the things you have mentioned. I agree China will have a difficult economic time ahead but in the end China is here to stay and will remain a major power on the World stage.
To say the least, China has a boatload of serious issues. Let's get straight to point, the CCP will do whatever it takes to remain in power... Translation it is the Chinese people that will suffer, the housing crisis (Ponzi scheme) a couple trillion dollars they are just kicking the can down the road, huge infrastructure failures, and quite costly, High-Speed rail not profitable at all, the belt and road project extremely costly, inefficient with labor cost and corruption and no doubt the poorer countries will leave China holding the bag (the enormous cost) the ccp's extreme covid-19 lockdowns sent a ripple effect throughout the country, the days when China was the cheap labor hub of the world are probably gone, exports are down sharply, international companies packing up leaving China (hedging their bets) no doubt they see something coming. I'm not saying China's economy is going to collapse, as the Chinese economy dredges forward and we know the CCP is as slow as molasses and as we are beginning to see especially with younger Chinese who are angry, frustrated, losing hope jobs, decent housing and a increasing number young Chinese who are beginning to question the CCP leadership and many refused to join the CCP it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep a lid on what's happening with Chinese economy Chinese people concerned about the quality of life it's sad to say they will bear the brunt (suffer) because of the government's present policies.
Let's hope your video will be in the millions of views like the other ones you've mentioned! And let's hope that EE won't be collapsing in 36 days and 7 hours.
you can live on 14k a year if the cost of living in china is significantly low compared to the west. the average income in here in the UK is significantly less than America (And we are feeling it) but no one says we are a poor country.
Whats the avg income in uk?
That’s because Brits pay higher taxes. This means lower incomes but greater benefits.
Americans enjoy a higher disposable income but overall receive less benefits.
They key is disposable income.
Even in Shanghai where the average income is upwards of twice that of the national average, even in the poorest American states you’ll find that everyone has an iPhone.
@@elon6784 around $40,000 at todays exchange rate.
@@SJKeates a year/ family?
@@elon6784 a year per person. It is just slightly higher here in the Netherlands.
I've watched countless videos that say China is going to collapse, from those that say within a year to a decade.
But I've noticed that most of the videos are usually delivered by channels or media that have an anti-China track record, and the content is usually very biased.
Others are people who present videos that please their viewers (who have negative sentiments on China) to earn money from youtube.
Which channels? Everyone here is saying "countless videos", "those channels", who? Are you afraid to name them? Why can't you be specific? It's impossible to assess your claim if you don't even say who it is against.
@@manuelp7472 a lot of Random channel. Do you write down every video you watched on youtube.
Search with key word China Collapse and you'll find a lot of that kind of video.
Or you never saw one?
little pinks are crying rn
@Aka aka aka 😂cope China hater. Aren’t y’all the bunch that kept on saying China is collapsing?
Anti- china track record??? How much did CCP pay you for writing that comment?
Thanks you for actually bringing this up. I've been trying to ask creators as to how exactly they come up with those ridiculous numbers and so far i've been greeted with silence.
Well looks like all those Chinese will collapse videos were correct.... It's currently collapsing, lol
@@11O100 Sure kid.
No one seems to have seen the irony, of this video? Dude kept saying, 'China's not going to collapse in the next 27 days, or whatever'. Of Course Not! Russia's economy collapsed way before the "walls fell". 😅 (Edit: It's comparable to try to dig yourself out of debt. Only to prolong that trip to "bankruptcy Court")✌🏽
Yeah because you're just one of 5,000 other comments on their videos.
@@11O100 you must be a R word
I sat in on a class at Stanford and the professor who was originally from Taiwan explained the cultural nuance in Asia of the focus being on maintaining what’s been grown which is quite different from our western growth economics model. I think there’s room in the conversation around ‘collapsing economies’ as well to creating understanding around nuanced definitions of “thriving.”
I think a major problem with all of these commentaries on China's future have to do with arguments about whether or not China will "collapse" as opposed to addressing exactly how bad their recession might be. By how much will China's GDP likely contract over the next two years? 5%? 10%? 30%? How much would a 5% contraction in the world's number two economy affect the rest of us vs. a 30% contraction?
I think you could safely argue that the United States economy didn't exactly "collapse" between 1929 and 1932, but things got pretty bad both in the US and around the world as a result of that recession. I'm not saying that will be the overall effect of China's recession, but I do have trouble believing that China's economic downturn won't have significant effects on the global economy as a whole.
Good points.
Perhaps collapse translates to meaning. Easy money making will be long gone for a long period of time. Earning millions or billions will require work. Brain power, raiky investment...... the easy life or riding the curve are gone, for now.
If in 2022 China's economy contracted by 5% their economy would be at 2021 levels.
If in 2022 it contracted by 30% they would be at 2016 levels.
The current "slow down" of China's economy is just a slow down in how fast they are still growing.
Even in 2019 when the whole world shut down, China's economy still grew by 2.24%. Their worst year is what most countries consider a good year.
Collapse is all subjective- there is no exact definition. What is certain is that it looks increasingly likely that China will have relatively low growth rate moving forward and that they will victim to the middle income trap. Unlike say it’s neighbors Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore who all went from poor to upper income nation over 40-50 year period.
@@shanerooney7288 Thats not how percentages work. If you have something worth say $100 dollars and in increases by 100%, it is now worth $200. but if it loses 50% of its value its back to $100 again. If China' GDP contacted by 30% it would take them far further back than 2017.
And thats only if you do believe their numbers. If you do, well there is a word for that.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson China will never get there. It missed that boat by being 30 years late to the party. You have all these exporting nations in the far east and in Europe and South America who have imploding demography. Who is going to buy their products? Not the US, we cant buy it all. Who then? Sub Saharan Africans?
I dont think people understand whats down the road with a smaller human footprint. And it wont be slow, it will be a cliff dive. In the next 20 years China will lose anywhere from 500-600 million people. Just from aging. Last year Japan lost 400k people from their total population, and its only going to grow from there.
The demography of the current age will not afford China the same path as others before them walked. It just wont be there.
Kind of weird that this is happening, especially seeing younger people talk about it because this is like the fourth or fifth time a big China collapse news cycle has gone on.
ua-cam.com/video/rsBZ4HG7HWI/v-deo.html
If we predict China will collapse every year eventually we will be right.
Been going on since world war 1, just look at Mao
It’s propaganda and warfare
You're witnessing an ongoing information warfare waged against China
Thank you for creating a counterweight to "Business Basics"
I think the problem with the analysis of China collapsing in a certain amount of time is that it sees it from a very Western lens. On one hand, a good parallel would be looking at Japan, and how it prop itself up, but it went through a very long, very slow, and very painful collapse. And on another, the nature of China's command economy means that it is able to prop itself up long after it's supposed to collapse. So in some senses, process of collapses already begun, and people in China are already beginning to feel the consequences. But as far as the country itself collapsing, that's not going to happen. The government has too much power.
You can't avoid demographic collapse. That's just a fact. China is going to collapse because its demographics are HIGHLY unfavorable.
It's just American wet dreams.
When Japan’s economy started stagnating in 1995, Japan GDP per capita was much higher than US’s. Even if China GDP growth rate slows down, it still has a lot of space to grow.
Too much power? that's what we thought about the USSR then look what happened.
While I agree with this video too many variables to say what happens to China especially if they pivot.
The collapse theories are based on what would get a government in a Western Democracy thrown out of office but China could literally fall to North Korea levels of starvation and their regime may still cling to power.
Seeing you deal with the situation of 'getting scooped' with a video idea by just praising them and shouting them out is awesome
Manufacturing and productive output is still the best economic metric of them all and although China has its massive economic issues and impediments, they still have that manufacturing base unmatched against the rest of the world.
YES CHINA IS JUST USING SOFT POWER AND ECONOMICS NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
Agreed but if people are locked down and unable to work, what good does that infrastructure do? There are video's from Shanghai ports that have been shuttered entirely for over a week now with cargo trucks parked up and down numerous streets in the city, because where else are would they? They've never been grounded to a halt like this before.
You make a good point as long as you can ignore what the manufacturing and productive output are actually for. The majority of China's manufacturing and production is made for internal consumption, and that internal consumption is for infrastructure projects and other subsidized economic initiatives that provide no economic value. They are essentially making and producing useless things way beyond what normal demand actually needs. This model can last as long as the Chinese government is willing to waste money just to keep people employed. It was easy to do when growth was large and it was easy to get foreign capital, but those times look to be over.
@@BulletRain100 China still attracts lots of foreign investments in fact more than USA
@@wutim6472 calm down Wumao
Anglos are seething over a rising China I love it
Seething? You mean "laughing". We're laughing at a "rising" China. Because it's actually sinking. Pay attention. The COVID lockdowns alone are hammering them. It's f'n hilarious! 🤣
I think the biggest issue with the housing bubble in China is that its combined with population decline. Rapid population readjustment. So instead of real estate losing some value as happens during normal real estate cycles, the loss of value in Chinas case will be extreme.
The negative adjustment will probably not be any different to that being experienced in North America.. Here in Canada, as baby boomers retire we are seeing significant difficulties complicated by the over excessive money printing low cost support of our "too big to fail" corporate interests that are impacting the baby boomer retirement group .... We live in volatile economic times. The low income yield being experienced on investments are proving an uncertain financial risk for a comfortable retirement.
If only housing wasnt a monetary asset. It would fix so much
That’s true but most purchases are also second or third homes and are never actually meant to be lived in so it’s hard to tell if it will actually affect it since owned homes are already not being lived in
@@andrethorpe6183 it will be very different because the population collapse is way worse because of the one child policy. So yeah similar to Canada but way worse.
@@andrethorpe6183 Canada’s population is increasing. China’s is drastically decreasing.
I loved this thank you. I don't understand economics & a lot of other related areas but I watch what I find interesting enough that I can learn. This longer format helped me so much, because so much was explained & brought together. I feel like I understand this video woo!
Wow, this was like a mini docu, great work to you and your team, you guys have been really productive lately. You make it easy for me to follow and understand these topics if though I am clueless about economics😂
26:06
19:34 - Infrastructure
22:51 - Japan over-inflated housing market
Tbh, the way people have been using "collapse" over the decades has made the word, more like stagnation than full blown collapse... been seeing videos since 2016 saying the US will collapse every single year and even from the dawn of our country being made, people have always been saying that. so am totally numb to the word collapse.
And in Chinas case i also see stagnation not a collapse.
I moved to China in 2003 and Shanghai has been my home ever since. It has been a great time to be here: Olympics, World Expo and a population full of optimism because every year had been better than the last. The last couple years with COVID, decoupling with the world and the recent lockdowns mark a new phase. This summer I've attended farewell parties for fellow expats on a near weekly basis. I withhold my temptation to write a long diatribe to focus on a couple of points:
1) There may be only one party that shows a united front, but if you look at what various leaders say you will notice divergence. Xi has shifted from a pragmatic, anti-corruption leader to an ideologue. His faction has already said that they think prices of raising children has become too high and are preventing the births that they want to sustain the population/workforce. If you have seen some of Li Keqiang's recent meetings, you know his faction is REALLY worried about getting the economy going again. He basically implored cadres at all levels to pull out all of the stops to get business going again. With nearly 20% unemployment for recent grads, the solution is economic. The CCP is one brand, but they have priority differences and approaches that vary widely.
2) The Chinese protest, and get heard, in their own way. It's different than in the West but it happens nonetheless. From recent "lay flat" trends, to running businesses in COVID with the lobby lights off to avoid fines, the locals are quite resourceful and pragmatic. If there is a loophole or workaround, they will find it and exploit it without hesitation. Unlike other places where the law is the LAW, here it's listen to what they say but then watch what people actually do. Several years ago, China made announcement that they would start issuing fines for running YELLOW traffic lights. Articles around the world talked about it. Guess what? Chinese people hated it, the gov't sensed that and left it on the books without implementing it. Similarly, we've been told for years that we would start paying property tax here in Shanghai. The tax bureau literally has turned people away who showed up trying to pay the tax because there was too much push back after it was announced and they relented. Do people have less freedoms here than in many Western countries? Yes. Are they powerless sheep who eat up propaganda and do everything they are told? Not even remotely.
I feel like if the Party collapses and "New China" fractures into less-centralized governance, the ones least who will be least surprised would be 1-point-something billion Chinese people.
@Alessandro Plomo Stop publically announcing your illiteracy.
Wuow, it seems that Chinese people are actually real human beings who would've guess /j
What you're saying is pretty important mate, and should be known more. Thx for the info
Alessandro means his post is very valuable and should write a book.
I agree with you 110%. I moved here to work in 2006. Still here. I’m still working even harder. However, yes , I find real people show their feelings in a very different way from westerners. People have their opinions. There are ways of showing discontent. People here are just wanting to survive and provide for their family. They are not stupid or never sheep. But they are aware that in recent years police powers have increased. It’s not as simple looking in like a snap shot. as most westerners think. Most Channels do not understand the dynamics of real people here. It’s much more complex. And silly Sweeping statements of contrition are totally wrong. I just hope things are going to be ok. We are all worried. And starting to prepare. It’s a very worrying time.
There is also a difference between Japan and China is that China has a stronger military force than Japan and it is hard to force china to sign deal similar with Plaza Accord that force of appreciation of JPY making jp company less competitive.
One thing also worth mentioning is that China was never occupied by the west post war. They don't have the strings to pull it down hard like they did in Japan.
Plaza Accords didn't stop Japan, that was something they could have easily overcome, they were still booming years after in fact. What stopped Japan was Japan's Demographics. Their ability to grow domestically peaked, then stagnated, and then slumped for awhile as their labor pool ran out and they had to pursue other options.
What’s worse than the Plaza Accord was the Japanese semiconductor industry getting squashed completely. It was a pillar of the Japanese economy and high hopes were given for high tech fields like such to carry the Japanese growth well into the 21st century.
But nope, Japan was simply too small in size and weak compared to the US to withstand a combination of political, economical, technological, and military struggle.
Plaza Acccord? Japan and Germany were both part of the plaza accord and look at how well Germany has done. I’m addition, Japan had its best 5yr gdp growth since 1960’s after signing the plaza accord in the mid 80’s. Stop spreading misinfo
What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
@@thomaszhang3101 stop spreading misinfo. What political and military and economic struggle enacted by the U.S. lead to Japans economic downfall? The video did great job of explaining all the massive issues Chinas faces form demographic to housing to banking. 50 centers just want to spread disinfo
What’s worse for CN is that have alienated half the world GDP which is leading actively de coupling from China while Japan didn’t face that issue.
I just LOVE how you say ‘mate’ at the end of your videos, it’s just so quintessentially Australian! Plus you’re always balanced towards reality rather than clickbait Touché mate!!
Great video. You missed one crucial aspect though. The reason for all this unrest was because the state backed banks and state backed builders decided to lower the price for home buyers. This inturn made everyone who have already have mortgage ask the companies if they can lower the price for existing customers as well, they didn't. This resulted in people stop paying their mortgages that is now threatening the chinese economy.
The reason why the chinese state lowered the price was because the market was crashing due to all the stress from failing companies like, evergrande.
So usurping the old aboned projects to stimulate the economy is not an option since the money is already spent.
Besides that great video, as always a good summery of the situation and it's aspects.
@Economics_Explained could you shadowban the bot that is claiming to be you
Demographicsos also a topic that isnt discussed much neither. The chinese population is aging fast. In about 30 years or less, the population will be hald of what it is today, unless people start having more babies! Sure the population has room to keep working and manufacturing for the next decade or so, but that rate of those enreri f the cities is slowing. This slow growth of working population? Means they will need to have immigration much the same as western countries. How many people move to china?
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 AI is quite advance in China and the Chinese do not detest machines. In fact, there are robots installed in places to replace labour already. A smaller population combined with machinery labour means a better life quality.
@@tempestmars123 artificial intelligence, works in a society that has wealth, scarcity and poverty. If the chinese are not wealthy, nor impoverished, what will drive AI investment?
@@riversedgegoatdairy297 literaly every video talking about china mentions demographics in them, 99% of the time lol. Actualy, Videos on the future of Eastern Europe fail to mention that at all, even if certain countries have a failling population RIGHT NOW
I think one of the biggest factors within developing nations tolerance to financial downturn is how big corruption is
hello juan how are you doing?
I can't believe the hypocrisy you said corruption
I really like how the videos uses the sources (news articles) to help justify the argument. It really adds legitimacy to the videos and adds value compared to scare mongering ones. Keep up the work and thanks for these videos.
I’d like a speculation one about if where the west is going in terms of higher rates and where that will lead us.
you re right, many youtubers don't use citations at all and they can just have a storyline without any proof of their arguments.
@@froufroufeatherstone6291 yes we should dismiss everything as being biased propaganda 🙄
I wouldn’t put too much stock in said news articles simply by virtue of them being news articles. That’s not to say they can’t be right, but simply saying “news articles are cited therefore this is correct” isn’t proof of anything unless we take a super deep dive into each article to judge its accuracy.
@@froufroufeatherstone6291 Then point me to some "reliable" ones then.
@@rishiarora3589 you are mature if you take everything as biased.
Joseph Schumpeter, economist, studied how innovations created new industries that wiped out their predecessors, causing great pain to those invested in obsolete business models. The auto industry killed the horse and buggy, not to mention horse breeders, blacksmiths, buggy whip makers, etc. He called it creative destruction. While different from the boom and bust business cycle, the two are similar. China is headed for tough times in the near term, but I wouldn't count them out in the medium and long term. They and Americans are a lot alike when it comes to inventiveness and entrepreneurial culture. We rise and fall and rise again. We come back renewed. That is our shared nature. Oh, and one other thing I noticed among my many educated Chinese friends. We had a similar sense of humor. I'm not sure what this means in the scheme of things. But I think it's noteworthy.
20:24 e
It's good you mentioned the massive heat wave in China. If China has to import more food as a result, this will impact everyone.
Not really everyone, just the countries that need to import food. Food exporters like the US can choose to prioritize their own people over exporting their food. I've heard India is doing something like that right now, and I think alot more countries will follow along if things start to get bad enough to cause food insecurity
@@karenwang313 true, the real loser would be Africa unfortunately, through no fault of their own.
The Americas, India, Russia and SEA are relatively self sufficient. China has massive reserves. Japan, SK and Europe can afford the higher prices.
@@duckpotat9818 Exacerbated by the war in the Ukraine, a huge food bowl for Africa offline. China has banned exports of Urea too. There goes the world supply of fertiliser. It's a perfect storm.
@@somethingelse9535 except Ukraine isnt nthe food bowl for Africa since wheat isn't a staple grain in Africa which is rice
13:30 China has urbanized significantly and still is in this process. Which is one of the key reasons for why real estate plays such a huge role in China.
A lot of evidence is actually pointing to a de-urbanising or at least a reduction in the urban population. It is complicated because the stats are notoriously unreliable thanks to the Hukou system which means many urban residents have not been counted as such. A lot of evidence (eg import of baby formula) indicates that the birth rate has fallen even more significantly that what the government has admitted. Some cities (eg DongGuan) have been particularly hard hit by workers travelling back to inland areas and not returning because of fear of travel difficulties/lock downs thanks to "zero covid". The size of the real estate bubble is MASSIVE. Look at the cost of homes relative to incomes in a city like ShenZhen (something like 48 years of income to "buy" a home that you only get a 72 year lease on). Unfortunately I don't believe the government is about to fall. Think of it like North Korea as their controls over the population have ramped up. That said I do believe we are seeing a VERY significant economic collapse although it is more likely to be a balloon that gradually deflates than suddenly bursts. Economics don't account for the importance of face and Xi JinPing is putting his insane "zero covid" policy ahead of common sense because of it. It is obviously economically destructive. Xi is a true believer in Marxist economics. He has indicated the economy should move towards more state enterprise and less private. Think about that and then think do you still think they won't have serious economic problems?!?
@@naguoning That's interesting. And strange. I need to keep an eye on that. Thx.
There is a funny Chinese saying: "An impoverished camel is still bigger than a horse", which I think applies very well here. Something that size is not going to go down easily, quickly, or quietly. If it does, anyone tied to it, and in today's globalized economy, that is practically everyone, will likely suffer injury as it thrashes on the way down.
The western phrase is "When the elephant sneezes, everyone catches a cold".
Isn't China the only economy in 2020-2021 that didn't go into deficit and actually see growth? Technically recession didn't happen to China. But to most other countries in the world.
Love that you keep your integrity when making videos. Many of the "China is collapsing" channels are blatantly ridiculous. I've been on a mass spree of telling youtube to never recommend those channels again. EE, on the other hand, is always a bastion of reasonability.
China is one of the most persistent nation I've ever known. A simple economic crisis won't collapse them.
In that sense no country can collapse because all countries can rebound even from negative.
China has gone through many already, this is not the single one, but must be the worst one.
Also, there was a crisis around 2010, their solution is real estate. So you see the bubble today.
If you think that you should actually study history. China has the same fluctuation of ideologies and regimes as everyone else. If anything, the US has it's current system since 1776, China since 1949.
in fact, people spoke about the same words about Russia before the war, Russia has many reserves, a lot of opportunities for growth and it will grow or stagnate slowly, but after the start of the war, the Russian economy fell by 10-20%. China can grow and develop, but if it starts a war for Taiwan or something like that, then China can lose even more than Russia. China's economy depends more on the political decisions of their leaders today.
Maybe its the same experts who thought that Russia would collpase after sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion.. That was an epic failure
thanks for making this, because as you said, there are SO many articles writing the same side...that's probably not going to happen. A more balanced analysis like this is a breath of fresh air.
Thank you so much for sharing such topic ❤️
I'm just commenting to congratulate you on the map of Africa, which you, unlike a lot of people and the media, got correct. (I'm looking at Morocco's borders)
You mean the Sahara border dispute with algeria?
@@Knnnkncht The dispute in which the Algerian military regime is arming and financing a militia of slavers and child soldiers to unjustly claim a southern Moroccan province.
@@adilator How dare the Algerians arm the Sahrawi so they can defend themselves from the genocidal morrocans.
@@adilator
Didn't Morocco invade in 1975?
Called the "green march". And it was during the cold war, USA helped out because they didn't want the area to become communist.
Why exactly is it Morocco territory?
@@shanerooney7288 Because the kingdom of Morocco has been around for centuries, unlike the fake state of Algeria that was created on kabil land by the french occupiers.
The green march was a peaceful march by Moroccan civilians to free the southern provinces of Morocco from spanish occupation.
This is clearly above your head and you're very misinformed.
Thank you for your reasonable analysis, it is much needed these days
Living in China I see the issues you've pointed out. However, your content is un-biased and takes into account context. Great video!
How can you be living in China and commenting on UA-cam? Isn’t it banned there?
@@rahuldhamecha3701 vpn
To the west China’s competitive edge might always be seen as “cheap labour producing all the plastic junk in your home”… however to us in Southeast Asia we see china’s competitive edge as providing scale and speed. I wonder how you see that component in the grand scheme of things and china’s fate and role on the world stage.
China already grew way beyond "cheap labour producing all plastic junk". They're now an innovative country. They're mobile phone brand are known to be very durable and innovative. DJI hold 70% of the world's consumer drone market share. BYD known for inventing BYD blade battery which is safer than traditional battery for EV. Even Tesla is using the blade battery for the Model Y that is in production in Germany. BYD Atto 3 is also the 2nd best selling EV car in Australia and New Zealand. They also managed to make themself a space station all by themself.
You’re absolutely right. Just look at the Tesla factory as an example. They built the mega factory in less than one year.
Your last point about power vacuums is exceptionally pertinent in more than just China's case. Without a clear plan of succession, regime change rarely turns out well for anyone involved, especially when it is solely predicated on getting the current people in charge out of power. This is true of dictatorships and democracies alike.
Nice well measured perspective. Especially the end is good commentary on why ppl keep going on about China collapsing
You just made everyone at the Financial Times cry with your title
lol
I completely agree that China is not going to collapse, but economic stagnation or slowdown is a very possibility in the future.
My take on this are 3 things on which you need to look out for :
1. The amount of dollar reserves China has because most of the internal stuff can be solved by printing money but it comes with a price.
2. The whole how China position itself against the west and how the west react to it.
3. The more surprising aspect how insane Chinas demand on resources is not just iron ore and coal and bauxit (which you can easily scale up), but food and wood which can not be scaled. Basically if things get any tougher because less supply or higher demand(not just from China) things in certain sectors will cost more = inflation which will then bite into 1
I think you are mistaken China doesn't put itself against the west, China position itself against everyone in the world. There are few countries that do not have any disputes with China like Pakistan, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.
LOL.. Too many "economic experts" which brings humiliation to US experts !!! China has succeed, just look at the number of nations involved in BRI means they trust China more than US. That's simple say
@@retired-s5h Lo those countries have defaulted on loans by China....They can't pay back their loans
@@retired-s5h The same way can be said to Murica.
It's a good video but some info is inaccurate. China is one of biggest grain producers and accounts for a quarter of total global food production. The food it imports is mainly for raising living standards. For example, those Chinese import huge amount of soybean to feed pig. They also import large portion of world production in high end products e.g. lobster, shrimp, and salmon.
very thoughtful video. Mirrors my sentiments exactly. Well done!
I did a very shallow undergraduate paper on regime collapse and it is never pretty even if the regime is “bad”
A State collapsing is never good those living there, nor for anyone else depending on that States influence on its surroundings. Governments aren’t good or bad, they’re governments.
@@shmeckle666 literally the worst possible take. You’re telling me the Khmer Rouge and Nazi Germany were not criminal and evil governments? Like “all governments are evil” at least has a leg to stand on unlike “all governments are banal.”
@@shmeckle666 researchers have found that peasants in the post roman world were actually more healthy than peasants living in the late Roman Empire because the state was so dysfunctional it was like a parasite latched on to the populace.
@@cringlator they have bad policies, yeah. Policies that are morally bad or functionally bad (ineffective). Any more into the morality of a State and we’ll get into relativity. What policies are bad according to whom, and why. So, yeah, Governments can have morally “bad” or ineffectively “bad” policies. Don’t really see the point of the clarification either in terms of foreign relations and policy implementation.
I didn’t say all governments are banal.
Everyone: Talking about China
Me: Why she stopped at middle of traffic 16:44 🍵
🍵
China is like the black knight from Monty Python series. No matter what crisis hits them like the Ever Grande crisis and Zero Covid Policy they will just tell the world that it's "Just a flesh wound".
Stay mad about it lol
@@travisfubu9053 he… doesn’t sound mad.
Because tens of millions died due to famine and war already in the last few generations and there’s still ~1.5 billion of us left. 😂
comparing to what they have been through in the past, it is.
"All right, we'll call it a draw!"
Monday, Wednesday, Friday: Collapse Day;
Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday:Threat Day;
Sunday : off-day
Economies don't just collapse like a poorly built building. They spiral. They spiral up and down. What's happened isn't some massive change, it's that the spiral is no longer going upwards but downwards. A big change yes, but it will be years at the least until we really start to see things change.
i don't think the gen population has the brains to understand this
The questions you ask in each video are usually spot on with the questions that I've asked myself in the recent past, and your analysis and explanation of the underlying principles is always informative! Great video as always.
I'm an economist who has watched every video, so I know there were great and weak ones. But this was definitely the best. Complete and with a looot of information. Congratulations on the great work!
*econ student
@@wustachemax lol no. Graduated in 2015 and work in finance. Not an academic but I also have an article published.
@@ricardonm92 What do you think about future gdp growth of us and china?
@@prasanth2601both the US and China are healthy competition but the US Empire always have a trick up their sleeves. I really think they are years ahead of the world especially technologically. China’s aging population is a problem too as China’s economy is a lot of productivity and manufacturing. East Asia in general is aging. India will have a growing economy but the problem with them is wealth inequality and humanitarian issues. They can have $5 trillion GDP but their income or GDP per capita will be around $12,000 USD per year
Entirely agree! And I speak as someone who, once upon a time, *did* predict that the Chinese housing economy was about to collapse and bring the rest of the economy with it. This was ~2011. I would love to see a slow transition to a more sustainable economic model (i.e., the closest to a free market that the Chinese Party can allow), but I don't think that's likely with the current leadership. So for now, the most likely outcome is neither crash nor continued astronomical growth, but a slow and steady unraveling of key aspects of the Chinese economy.
the countries that are getting cut-off are simply reorganizing themselves into their own regional bloc. The west is essentially helping speed up the process of regionalisation
Yes but the regionalization that China is grouping with are a bunch of slow growing, already highly aged populations. Just look at the GDP growth rates of the countries (besides India) in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
When you show China imports by country, I wish you’d have included it as a relative figure to their economies overall. A loss of 160 billion worth if exports will hit Australia an order of magnitude harder than a loss of 180 billion will hurt the US (around 10% and less than 1% of their GDPs, respectively), and Japan (~4%) and the EU (~1%) losses hover somewhere between that. (Note GDP estimates vary by source, with the EU not actually being a country so having the loosest estimate, and GDP may not be the best thing to compare Chinese imports to, but I think it can at least serve to illustrate the importance of comparing such losses relative to the economy in question, rather than just listening a set of similar dollar amounts for countries with very dissimilar economic sizes)
Just over here, observing how you and Money&Macro are making each other better by calling each other out and then each trying to improve their points. You know, how things *should* be.
On UA-cam, China has been experiencing economic collapse since 20 years ago until now
"If the economy is not growing, corruption will eat it alive" See South Africa's economy.😔
Bro we're literally going backwards now...the Eskom situation is particularly frustrating!!
South africa is corrupt no matter what the economy does
The problem with the argument at the end of the video, is that we had the same approach of patiently being generous such as with Russia for decades waiting for this positive gradual change domestically, but it never happened on the contrary, it got worse.
That is why we should destabilise it much much faster. The ccp is morally corrupt. We need to counter their influence asap. Just like how we need to Counter russians influences. This is the new cold war and we should deny china our markets and tech.
Yeah but the approach caused problems as well and unlike russia china is at its prime and has alot to loose
These two countries are different so the latter is to expect different results
Maybe because of the complete purchase of all the previously state owned industries by the oligarchs for pennies on the dollar after the liberalization of the economy?
Maybe because of the resulting economic collapse after the complete failure of Yeltsins privatization shock-therapy?
Maybe because food and other necessities that previously had controlled prizes now became to expensive for a majority of Russian to buy?
Maybe because the first thing that happened after Russia became somewhat democratic was a coup by the president where tanks where literally firing upon their parliament?
Like the idea that nations magically become more democratic from market liberalization is just not true, the state Russia is currently in is a direct result of what free-market policies did to their economy.
I agree I don't think China will collapse but it does face years of stagnation. It has also been destroying relationships with the EU and US and others which will only increase the pain. The thing I worry about the most is the Taiwan issue. If China is feeling backed into a corner it might lash out. I never thought Russia would actually invade Ukraine until they did. Hopefully China learns the right lesson from Russia and doesn't try it. There is still a worry in the back of mind that China might invade and it would be much worse than the Russia Ukraine war.
An invasion of Taiwan would be especially crippling for Mainland China once the crossfire scares off the civilian ships -- Western opposition wouldn't even need to control the seas, just launch enough return fire to make it unsafe to enter. China is too polluted to feed itself and high-sulfur coal is useless to modern military operations. By the end of a year most the PLA might be deployed on the Mainland to quash internal uprisings over rationed tainted food and petitions for answers about why their only sons disappeared on deployment.
Really? I didn’t see a future where Russia didn’t invade AGAIN.
@@prouddegenerates9056 i see one alternative universe where russia didn't attack
The one the US accepted russia in NATO instead of refufing it
I guessed you prefer having ennemies than friend, i mean you prefer to be friend with people funding directly daesh and attacking countrys and your own country like the saudis, quatar, EAU
Wow....people should questioning this kind of content instead, why they massively say that china will collapse and why they persistent about it. It's kinda sus
I like how economists can always say that they are correct in their assessments if just for limited timeframes.
You got to remember, there are economist and there are legitimate economist who dig deeper they rid themselves quickly of adulterated numbers and base their assessments on factual information... But to continue to borrow money do repay old loans and interest is eventually a financial disaster, like a dog chasing his tail! China has enormous financial issues, we're not talkin billions, but trillions and the way their system is setup there's no way they can repay, my guess is they will kick this can down the road it will give them time but will solve anything?
Just like a weather report
Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in April and need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation; my goal is to have at least $1 million by the age of 65.
You should have started a long time ago, and perhaps you should seek the assistance of a financial advisor to assist you in developing a viable and reachable plan.
Yes, I agree with danny gold^^ here; I have one, she was excellent at what she did; saw me through a painful divorce and got me on my feet again.
@@julianxavier9568 What is the procedure like? Has employing a FA proven quite profitable for you?
@@gracehunter454 Definitely! All of this happened in less than a year after Janet Young Kang told me what to do. I started with less than $110,000, and now I'm about 22,000 short of having a quarter million dollars.
@@gracehunter454 lol you do realize you're talking to a bot
Your last part is so true. Remember the last time in the early to mid 1900's, when a certain country face complete and utter collapse? And people were desperate? I'm thinking about that one mustache Austrian who took over beer country basically in an instant. Lol
A well written video, I appreciate that!
I love when he talks about the theory of monetary policy as if Keyensian economics is the obvious bog standard, the only way to structure a healthy and normalized economy. Never once has he considered maybe the "medicine" is also the ailment.
Boom and bust yo? Not in my Austrian school of economics.
@@shikamaruthehokage more likely in your indian school 🥴
@@LaowaiDaveJCP Lol, usual kangladeshi hating on indians for no reason.
It's very rich coming from someone who thinks "animal spirits" will lead us out of every recession. The Keynesian model is completely rigged in the favor of politicians and businessmen with hardly any weight of reciprocative responsibilities.
"sorry to disappoint"
I don't think I'd want that to happen no matter what. The industrial and economical consequences would be horrible in any western country thank you very much.
The CCP are the biggest threat to democracy and human rights at the moment. Despite the economic fallout, their downfall would be a good thing for all of humanity in the long-term. And like EE and other rational commentators said, it will not be happening soon.
some "chinabad" ideologues and dipshits can't think ahead like that lol
@@generalsociety9607 Ideals are great and all,, but the consequences of a full economical collapse in china are not as simple as you not receiving a new phone. It would be widespread economical destabilization, unprecedented lack of industry as well as starvation in some places.
I don't rightfully care about what's right and wrong faced with issues even touching on those points, so again: Nope. Please hold together.
@@Tyiriel "not as simple as you not receiving a new phone" you state this incredibly first-world problem, assuming I'm from the first world, but I'm not. I've lived through economic turmoil, frequent blackouts, sewage-infested tap water, civil strife, and riots stemming from political instability.
Also, since you mentioned the word "ideal," my ideal scenario is not for China to collapse. It's for it to peacefully transition into a democracy. But even I'm rational (and cynical) enough to know that that's never happening.
UA-cam's comment section debates can get rather ugly (especially about politics), so I'd just like to say that this is merely a difference of opinion. As such, I find your point of view perfectly valid, even if I don't entirely agree with it. Have a good day.
@@generalsociety9607 Fair points, agreed.
I like that you put that it's not going to collapse "Yet." Because we all know that eventually every economy will collapse. Even the US. It is inevitable.
Unless it becomes an idea
You can't kill an idea
well i mean if the us economy were to collapse, i'm pretty sure the world's economy will have done so too at that point lol
Thank You! I've definetly been keeping a closer eye on the Chinese since I subscribed to your channel
Great video EE. Most news media of any kind sells itself through these extreme headlines. I appreciate the reasoned, objective approach despite personal chagrin over China's system of governance. The U.S. has been predicted to collapse so many times in my life and as you say, it's really often a controlled up and down with a steady increase upward. I do agree that China is perhaps less equipped to manage this than a country like the US, but that doesn't mean world ending catastrophic collapse. Great video.
I'm confused. If a 40-year property bubble, bank runs, local government revenue cessation, permanent economic stimulus, international decoupling, global commodity inflation, extreme corruption, rising unemployment, foreign capital flight, and population lockdowns won't precipitate an economic catastrophe, then what would? Economics is a force of nature, and a system that hasn't allowed for small periodic economic corrections can't help but experience a large one.
China popped the bubble themselves with the three red line policy, so it's not like other bubbles where things were allowed to go to extremes before a catastrophic burst.
The confusion comes from information sources, there's literally no good news about China from Western media, people already convinced china is bad.
Buy more Chinese stock. I can sell you mine. Trust me, China will never fall. ;)
I think it boils down to what you define as " economic catastrophe". Like said in the video, people never go really rich in the first place, so there isn't much to fall to. Corruption and unemployment exist in pretty much every other countries too and nothing changes. Property bubble will likely get inflated away... They have cheap energy from russia, and industry that can produce things, they have pretty much control on all of south asia, and are probably looking at better next years compared to europe.
As long as they are not involved in war, I'm not sure anything qualifying as a "catastrophe" will happen.
that's what I thought. I came to the conclusion of China going to a collapse before any vide about x days until China collapses, due to the multitude of inter and external problems in China. I mean throughout history this is how nations fell and this seemed an indicator of some kind of sweeping change. and the population of china seems more and more accepting of the idea of some kind of sweeping change. especially with the zero COVID policy.
problem with the inflation figures of China they don't include food and fuel cost so it's a bit flawed national statistics
You mean similar to the bs the us does with "core-cpi"?
where did u get this crazy idea?
@@donkalzone6671 yeah mostly the same
Interesting intonation at the end of many sentences.
Aye, EE is finally talking about this after a long time!
Hasn’t everyone been crying “China is about to collapse” constantly since the 90’s?
Since 1949
Na bro
Since 90 BC
Great video! Interesting to hear you line of thought about corruption. What do you think about corruption in the US? Is corruption legalised in US through lobbying? Hence is it more or less corrupt than China? And following this line of thought is there much democracy left in US given that any ellected government protects more corporate interests rather than its population?
I live in China, and my students and coworkers have become surprisingly local about how crappy the situation is becoming here. Granted, they are upper middle class Shanghainese, but still… Not a collapse, but hard times are written on the wall.
I think what gets left out if the analysis is the state of the world. Times are going to get hard everywhere. Hard to say if it will be worse in China or not.
I live and work in China. Moved here from County Durham, England in November 2019. It's been an experience, and economically speaking, compared to back home I'm much better off here in China.
Enjoy your communist overlords.
I watched one of those ‘China is Going to Collapse Soon’ videos. It didn’t sound well researched at all, but that sensationalism is selling well. I’m glad you’re taking a more balanced way to approach things and actually take your time to warn the viewers what China’s collapse would change in their lives as well
Frankly, it makes me really upset to see people constantly hoping for the CCP to fail. I get it, people don't see eye to eye with the decisions they've made throughout history... but the impact to the people of China would be absolutely catastrophic... Too many armchair politician/strategists out there.
Most people don't realize that if China does indeed collapse, the rest of the world will also suffer greatly, because of huge reliance on finished goods from China. Additionally, replacing China with other countries with lower wages isnt as easy as westerners think. It will take at the very least a few years and massive initial investments to buy/lease land and build factories. The cost of time and money to sacrifice is just too high.
It happens all the time that people see issues in a 2d way. Just like how some people think all Russian soilders are bad.
I met some of the most wonderful Chinese people. I hope CCP would encourage entrepreneurship and puts its people first more. It's really such a waste to be so stifled by the CCP. The difference between Taiwan and China is the government and Taiwan is doing tremendously well, one of the richest countries in the world the 4th if adjusted for purchasing power. This is what Chinese ppl are missing out on. Switch out the government and the people will be a lot richer.
The ppl at the top screw over the ppl at the bottom in China. They only care about their own wealth and don't mind leaving the rest to suffer.
@@user-lxkwyql TW politics will always be manipulated by the US, and they will always stay under the thumb of the US though (like Japan)
@@user-lxkwyqlChinese people are not missing out. They have much more advanced infrastructure and transportation compared to Taiwan. They have entrepreneurship. Where do you think all those millionaire and companies come from taking over the world. China cares about the people. The HSR and subways all lose money. You know why? China thinks for its people and long term.
That’s why I’m subscribed to you and not those click bait channels.
Finally, a level headed discussion about what might be happening in China. Thank you.
Hi. Im from China and studied economics in Aus. Totally agree with you mentioned in this video. One thing I want brought up is the exchange rate. When you compare China to Japan, you are using US dollar, however, we need to remeber the real exchange rate for USD/CNY is not 7 as we saw at spot. Since PPP means more.
Thanks for making this video. I too was tired of the videos about China collapsing in days.... As much as we all want the regime to fail, it is not going to happen. They actually have long term plans, and have accumulated a lot of wealth for their plans.
What did happen is that the recent events (from recent agressive politics to covid, etc) started a new trend, or awekening. Countries and Companies world wide have come to a realization that the CCP will not allow an outside company to have their cake and eat it too. All foreign companies were welcome, but with the condition that they were owned jointly with a local companty. Once the chinese learn the technology/knowledge, foreign companies are disposible.
Manufacturing and development have reached a peak in china, so the ccp does not actually need that much from foreign companies anymore.
For those who do not frequently travel to china, I will tell you this: Foreigners are not welcome anymore.
YOU may want the Chinese regime to fall. But the Chinese people don't.
Chinese people are human. And as humans they like being on the winning team. China is growing economically, militarily, more global influence, and they're doing so without waging war across multiple middle eastern countries.
You greatly underestimate the Chinese people and their resolve to NOT be "contained" or have the West "stop the rise of China".
really ? me despite being indian (whose country has direct rivalry and has fought two wars against china) did not encounter any hostility in china ; people mostly had a curious reaction..... i think chinese are still welcoming but maybe that's just me
(in reference to @Ramon's last statement)
Fantastic video. The lessons in the end about the click-bait and collapse are very important, those hoping for them need to go outside and touch grass. Keep up the good work.
This channel is BACK!
^scam
You can't tell what's "true and proper" unless you do your own research though, and even then that's only your best judgement. Good intentions don't guarantee mistakes aren't made or details missed.
Which isn't a comment about this video or channel, just think everything should be taken with its due salt.
YES CHINA IS JUST USING SOFT POWER AND ECONOMICS NOT USING MILITARY FORCE
@@wutim6472 bot.
@@neilabernath5862 bruh Im not a bot
Brother please open subtitles in all videos pls ❤️❤️
Not only did Money & Macro make a video, but so did the Plain Bagel lol. Everybody wanna talk about China this week lol
Also Plain Bagel, and Patrick Boyle 10 days ago
@@LeMAD22 finance youtuber meta 🤣
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