Hello Dr Meldrum, I am not a CFA candidate but came across your videos some time ago and I find them very helpful and instructive in so many areas. As a retireee can you offer a subscription from September for people who just want to learn more about economics and your weekly updates, positions etc? Maybe you are not interested in doing this but I do believe there are a lot of people like me who would find your education and deductions valuable. Thank you.
Hi Mark, maybe the Bloomberg article that said that AT&T and other Telcos are sitting on massive piles of copper cables which they will slowly dig out of the ground as they replace them with ethernet. And this can bring them extra revenues given how high copper prices are. Maybe this news forced some analysts to update their valuation models to account for this. I tried to post a link but my comment was filtered out.
For the Applied Level, could you make an overview video on the structure/roadmap on how to think about analysing companies (and elaborate on sorting them by 'buy, hold, sell' boxes) as a retail investor? The sector studies are great but to get all the structure and tips you give when you go through a company's 10-K, as a CFA L2 candidate I would need to go through all of the videos but I have to prioritise the CFA exam for now. Also, that could help people visualise what they should look for when doing their own analysis, understand how and why the approach is different as a retail investor compared to a professional context.
Thanks for the video, it's great as always! I have a question about Mexico. You were bullish on it at the beginning of the year. What's your current view, especially considering the recent drop in the EWW? Thank you!
Hi, Mark. Concerning the end-of-day positioning: could you please explain the rationale/mechanics of such trades for both investors/traders and market makers? For the latter, my sole understanding is that MMs do rebalancing to keep delta neutrality. Is there more nuance to that? Thank you, and have a good one.
Hello Dr Mark, not sure if you heard it. BYD released a new hybrid car which can do 2.9 litre/100km. A test was done that the car went 2400km with signal tank.
1) In the Live Q&A you mentioned a $100 USD unrealized loss in an option is already taken from my cash. If I sold a put to acquire the stock and received the premium, but its unrealized P&L is negative ($100), why is this $100 loss considered a cash loss when (as I understand) it reflects the difference between the strike price and the stock price I'm going to hold? What am I missing? 2) Similarly, is there a case where I do a cash-secured put because I want to hold the stock long-term, but it's more convenient to sell the option because its unrealized P&L is positive?
Dr Mark: Follow up on OXY, you position update question asked in Live Q&A on Sunday. You mentioned Warren Buffet will be all over OXY if it goes down, what's the lower price range you think before it happens? More than this specific stock, trying to understand the process. I have a high conviction on Rivian, trying to draw a parallel with OXY, if that goes down a certain price won't it become a target for acquisition? Rivian has "Rivian Commercial Van" with a contract of 100,000 vehicles to Amazon and Signed a contract with ATT, not sure if there is much competition in this space from other EV manufactures.
If you are so sure that a stock is going up, wouldn't it be inconvenient to do a cash-secured put since the probability of reaching the strike price is lower and you may not get the stock?
Is my understanding of the BSM model (see below) correct, or am I missing something? Similar to a binomial option valuation model, the price of an option should be its expected payoff - calculated as the sum of the probability-weighted future payoffs. The BSM model differs in that: • It indirectly estimates the probabilities of each future asset price by looking at the normal probability distribution of log returns - the lognormal distribution of asset prices can be converted to log returns which are themselves normally distributed. • When using z-scores to estimate those probabilities, the BSM attempts to account for the randomness of asset prices by including the drift component from the Geometric Brownian motion to the mean: Ir + (0^2)/21T for d1 and [r - (o^2)/2]T.
When you started, did you have strong emotions with your performance or losing money? If so, how long did it take for you to remove emotions money in your trading? For example, making a mistake or closing position for a loss and then all of a sudden it recovers, how did you remove the emotional effects to continue and move on? I tend to beat myself up on mistakes but I know I just need to learn from them and move on but sometimes it's difficult to shake off.
In the previous market outlook, you mentioned that higher interest rates don't seem to be having much of an effect. I did an analysis on CSX not long ago and noticed that CSX and its competitors issued a lot of debt shortly before the Fed started raising interest rates to combat inflation. I wouldn't be surprised if companies in other sectors did the same in anticipation of rate hikes. If this is true, how much of an impact do you think rate hikes have on the overall economy?
Hello Prof. Meldrum What are your thoughts on the consumers spending using their credit cards? I don’t believe these GDP growth are natural, I think consumption continued but it was financed with debt and debt comes with very high rates as it does with credit card companies. Also, do you think 1.5 trillion dollars in credit cards debt will become an issue? or do you think it a solvable problem?
Hi Mark, can you please elaborate a little bit on what the interpretation and the analysis of the movements of RRP, TGA, Reserves etc...? I mean every week you mention the movement but, what does that movement and what and how it impacts things? Thanks.
Hey prof, it seems the wealth transfer phenomenon we are witnessing is amplifying as is the erosion of the middle class. If salaries don't go up and the wealthy own most of everything, what would be the outcome? Do you foresee any economic adjustments, or are we the latin america in terms of disparity? Thank you,
How will utilities be able to invest for growth considering how indebted they are? I understand they earn a regulated return, but don’t the investments need to occur before their earnings really take off from this new demand?
What are your thoughts on private credit market (i.e. direct lending)? It’s been growing very fast and everyone seems optimistic about it. However not everyone acknowledges the risks of higher rates, interconnectedness to PE industry, limited transparency into valuations etc. People say loans are safe as they are secured and they have tight terms/covenants, however high supply of capital (dry powder is very high) can soften the very terms as it already has to some extent with spreads tightening for recent deals. Do you think this could turn out to be a systemic risk?
As a non-US investor (or as a foreign investor generally speaking), what should I consider with regards to taxes when investing in foreign markets? Do you know of any good websites that compares taxes between countries?
During your live session, you mentioned that $T is on your watchlist for the time being. Could you share which other companies are on your watchlist or those you are actively engaging with by selling puts/employing an income factory strategy?
Hi Dr Mark, You said that you mostly enjoy the quantitatively driven subjects like FI, Derivatives in CFA curriculum. I am curious to know why you mostly like Sector studies module rather than Options and portfolio modules in applied level where latter two modules may more quantitatively driven than sector studies module Another question: even tough you are not contributing to MM package development for CFA Level I & II, are you still recommend MM level I and II packages?
Hi Mark In one of your past videos you mentioned that E in 12m-leading P/E for S&P 500 is Operating Earnings and not Net Earnings. Whereever I see printed P/E for NVDA (or any other stock), is E stands for Oper Earnings as well? Thanks
Hi dear Mark! How are you today? I have a pretty simple and straightforward question. Right now I need to choose a topic for my Bachelor thesis. And one teacher only can offer me a topic connected to DCF: “Corporate Valuation. Estimate of Company Value”. The main method as I said will be DCF. Can you please explain to me what do you personally think about DCF? Because I have read about it a little bit and people (even Buffet himself) are telling this is just a waste of time and there are more effective ways to calculate intrinsic value of a company. But I still think that to gain more experience and knowledge in a subject I can take such Bachelor thesis. Is it okay how do you think? Thanks so much in advance!
Originally I thought your sector analyst designation would be a designation for specific sectors. But it sounds like it would cover all sectors of the economy?
Re new positions: you’ve mentioned you added Canadian reits, eg IIP, MI, CAR with slow down increments: eg 11.90, 11.75, 11.58 etc. Does that mean you’ve sold puts in the morning for different strikes? If so, how many contracts is normally your one position in this case, for one strike price I mean.
Yes you do. Send a request to support@markmeldrum.com, as long of course as your CFA subscription was with markmeldrum.com. If not, then you will have to wait for the results in July.
hi mark, i have a question, i currently study economics statistics and data science , and the economics part is so unrealistic and unpractical with contrast to what it really is, im thinking of switching to accounting instead of economics, what is your thoughts about that, keep in mind i dont want to be CPA and i can do a finance degree because iam in europe. i love economics but not what they teach in university, so unpractical and unrealistic all thos theorists
Question about OXY and their potential as an attractive takeout target - I know that they acquired CrownRock just a few months ago and they’re not particularly what would you consider to be a small player - under what circumstances would an even larger producer (I’m assuming an integrated major) be interested in acquiring the company. Or why would Berkshire Hathaway look to increase its stake in the company?
Prime acreage for cheap oil extraction is the reason they would be viewed as an attractive takeout target (known as Tier 1 acreage) -- in addition to good proved reserves of oil under the ground (PDP). Most O&G M&A transactions you are starting to hear in the news recently have no other ulterior motive except to secure future drilling inventory. For a blockbuster deal such as Chevron/Hess, you heard media commentators talking about a wide variety of possible motives for the acquisition. However, it's simple: Chevron had slim pickings on inventory (relative to peers) and needed new places to drill. The inventory Hess has (now Chevron, should the transaction close smoothly) includes nearly 11B barrels of oil offshore locations in Guyana -- which is why Exxon putting up a fight and going to court with Chevron/Hess over working interest contracts to secure said barrels, more on that if you Google it, should be a WSJ article. Back to OXY, they sit on some of the finest pieces of acreage in the Western hemisphere (Permian & Delaware Basin) -- without the geopolitical risk of South America. Combined with OXY's midstream assets which can transport the oil for cheaper compared to competitors, it's a no-brainer if your a company sitting low on reserves. For the record though, I think Berkshire would increase stake only if they want to take it private so they don't have to deal with ESG BS. My two cents. Mark's two cents are probably better.
Why not sell the news on rate cuts? We should not be at 530, it was only in anticipation of cuts that led us there. The AI/tech trade is also faltering. If your theory about financially sophisticated institutions hedging against rates is correct these will also unwind.
Tough to trade contra on everything. Sounds like you may have been late on some themes. There is always something that actually works and agrees with consensus.
Hi Dr. Mark, although I've signed up for MM Level 3, the price for the Applied Level series is still USD 440. will the USD 320 offer price be updated at a later date? just an fyi, I'm from Malaysia, if it affects anything. thanks for all that you do.
Mexico and India markets sharply dropped on the elections results. How should we treat such political events? Is this just a buzz and a buying opportunity or should we place more weight on these? In both cases it's not like the opposing party got the majority. In mexico Obrador was replaced by his secretary and in India, Modi stays in power.
Dr Mark : CFA question, I am working in IT and completed CFA level 1/2 in 2018-19. Re-started level 3 journey and bought archive levels to get a refresher. Having some challenge without the PDF. I understand at the time of purchase it's clearly mentioned that PDF's are not available. But is that something you can reconsider? Lot of videos I can watch at 2X speed but having the document in front will help. Other listeners please vote if you have the same problem.
Can you explain why you do not prefer to just short SPY to hedge? Is it because you are responsible to pay for dividends and potentially margin interest? But my understanding is that you can keep the constant beta reduction if you are say short 30% SPY. Just trying to compare this against collars or put spread collars. Appreciate your thoughts.
Practical question: If you sell puts on a futures contract (e.g. HG) how to make sure you don’t have to take a delivery of the copper in case you are assigned the futures contracts? Would you always have to close your short position (buy some put options) before assignment or can you get assigned the futures contracts and then sell them on the spot market (and how to make sure you do that in time e.g. If you get assiged futures based on your Jun25’24/Jul put)
The only way to not be assigned is to buy back the short contract before it goes ITM, or, buy an already ITM call (again before assignment), the broker will usually assign against the long ITM contract leaving you with the difference. Or you could go long the number of contracts needed to net out any short delta you’re carrying.
Hii Mark, I was watching your bull put spread video, you insisted that it’s not a good strategy and one is bound to blow up in the longer term. My question is isn’t it better compared to naked short put as risk reward ratio is even worse in short put and if market corrects loss will be more in short put along with the margin requirements.
Mark the move to end the session was "window Dressing" was it not? End of week and end of month reporting better results to investors and bullying the market higher.
The forecast for 0.3% Core PCE MoM was different from the Bloomberg forecast of 0.2% Core PCE MOM. So when I was watching the announcement, Mike McKee said that it came inline with forecasts. Why the difference? I think something like this could have an effect on perceptions for some people.
Hi Mark, I am currently an undergrad student in Canada and am thinking of writing level 1 in August 2025. I want to get the Applied Level before the price increases. My question is... since the latest exam I cannot currently register for L1 through CFAI and have to wait until early bird registration in November... can I still buy it now? Asking because I saw you may require proof of enrollment.
As a small investor, what trades would you make today or tomorrow to maximize the small investor advantage? You mentioned in some (old?) videos that this advantage could be significant, but I'm struggling to grasp how to implement it.
Hi dr Mark. NVDIA had been previously established as volatile stock with considerable price swings. I share the point that we don’t short stock like Nvda. I did however bought November $1060 put after earnings call announcement initial rally. Narrative on NVDA after the earnings seems to have solidified more with new type of chip and add’l business growth prospects. Prospects of price downturn in the next month or so seem low - Dr Mark, couple of words of critique on the put purchase, and possible position management strategies.
Can you explain why economic data releases have revisions to previous releases? For example, looking at the most recent PCE report and a handful of the previous PCE reports, the headline PCE index for previously reported months tends to fluctuate somewhat m/m. These revisions also seem to affect a lot of other values within the report. In your PCE Applied video, the savings rate for March was shown as 3.2 compared to the most recent report released on Friday having 3.6 for March. In the video, you inferred that the decrease in savings rate and increase in consumption most probably means increased use of credit (that makes sense). However, looking at the most recent report, the savings rate has been relatively flat due to the revision. My question is: should we take these reports at face value or delay inferences until there are no longer revisions? Appreciate your insight and how you look at these reports. Sorry for the long question/comment!
Thank you for all of the exceptional content. I am very excited about the industry peer group module. I would love to suggest adding homebuilders as a potential group to examine. While they are heavily influenced by interest rates and other cyclical variables, there is significant differentiation in their strategies. Thanks again for all you do.
Could you please give me a hand understanding the economics of income factory. Let’s imagine TLT, I sell 45 DTE put for $1.33, and the margin required is roughly $600. Assuming the stock is not put to me and my only income is the premium. So I get $133, divide that by margin required and get roughly 22%, and that is for 45 days, annualised that gets roughly 180%. This looks too good to be true, where am I missing a point?
Re TLT: by Wed evening TLT fell ~2.6% in just two days. I looked up for reasons on why it’s dropped but no sensible news came out to drive that decrease. Do you have any ideas on why it’s done so? I’ve sold 88 puts for $1.33.
TLT does not decrease or increase - yields do. As yields move, so will TLT. Yields climbed higher on concern that rates cuts won't be coming this year.
I got the applied series back in the day
and i can tell you there is a lot of material.
Its well worth it
Glad to tune in on Dr Mark's weekly rant about Earnings Calendar 😂
😂😂😂😂 that always makes me smile and laugh. Dr. Mark, make it as a tradition🤣
Hi Mark, LOVED the intro reviewing key economic data. Keep it coming please. Thank you
came for the weekly earnings calendar rant
left with a promise for level 4
i can’t complain
Where l4 is mentioned? I must have missed it
@1:00:00
Hi Mark! A brief update on the election results in Mexico would be appreciated. Saw EWW drop 11%, and peso weakining against the dollar. Ouch!
What!!? I’m invested in EWW. Missed that drop
Hello Dr Meldrum, I am not a CFA candidate but came across your videos some time ago and I find them very helpful and instructive in so many areas. As a retireee can you offer a subscription from September for people who just want to learn more about economics and your weekly updates, positions etc? Maybe you are not interested in doing this but I do believe there are a lot of people like me who would find your education and deductions valuable. Thank you.
Hi Mark, maybe the Bloomberg article that said that AT&T and other Telcos are sitting on massive piles of copper cables which they will slowly dig out of the ground as they replace them with ethernet. And this can bring them extra revenues given how high copper prices are. Maybe this news forced some analysts to update their valuation models to account for this. I tried to post a link but my comment was filtered out.
For the Applied Level, could you make an overview video on the structure/roadmap on how to think about analysing companies (and elaborate on sorting them by 'buy, hold, sell' boxes) as a retail investor?
The sector studies are great but to get all the structure and tips you give when you go through a company's 10-K, as a CFA L2 candidate I would need to go through all of the videos but I have to prioritise the CFA exam for now. Also, that could help people visualise what they should look for when doing their own analysis, understand how and why the approach is different as a retail investor compared to a professional context.
Thanks for the video, it's great as always! I have a question about Mexico. You were bullish on it at the beginning of the year. What's your current view, especially considering the recent drop in the EWW? Thank you!
Hi, Mark. Concerning the end-of-day positioning: could you please explain the rationale/mechanics of such trades for both investors/traders and market makers? For the latter, my sole understanding is that MMs do rebalancing to keep delta neutrality. Is there more nuance to that?
Thank you, and have a good one.
Hello Dr Mark, not sure if you heard it. BYD released a new hybrid car which can do 2.9 litre/100km. A test was done that the car went 2400km with signal tank.
1) In the Live Q&A you mentioned a $100 USD unrealized loss in an option is already taken from my cash. If I sold a put to acquire the stock and received the premium, but its unrealized P&L is negative ($100), why is this $100 loss considered a cash loss when (as I understand) it reflects the difference between the strike price and the stock price I'm going to hold? What am I missing?
2) Similarly, is there a case where I do a cash-secured put because I want to hold the stock long-term, but it's more convenient to sell the option because its unrealized P&L is positive?
Dr Mark: Follow up on OXY, you position update question asked in Live Q&A on Sunday. You mentioned Warren Buffet will be all over OXY if it goes down, what's the lower price range you think before it happens? More than this specific stock, trying to understand the process. I have a high conviction on Rivian, trying to draw a parallel with OXY, if that goes down a certain price won't it become a target for acquisition? Rivian has "Rivian Commercial Van" with a contract of 100,000 vehicles to Amazon and Signed a contract with ATT, not sure if there is much competition in this space from other EV manufactures.
If you are so sure that a stock is going up, wouldn't it be inconvenient to do a cash-secured put since the probability of reaching the strike price is lower and you may not get the stock?
When short a bond, why does an investor have to pay coupons to the opposite side? Wouldn't the bond pay the coupons to the long side anyway?
Is my understanding of the BSM model (see below) correct, or am I missing something?
Similar to a binomial option valuation model, the price of an option should be its expected payoff - calculated as the sum of the probability-weighted future payoffs.
The BSM model differs in that:
• It indirectly estimates the probabilities of each future asset price by looking at the normal probability distribution of log returns - the lognormal distribution of asset prices can be converted to log returns which are themselves normally distributed.
• When using z-scores to estimate those probabilities, the BSM attempts to account for the randomness of asset prices by including the drift component from the Geometric Brownian motion to the mean:
Ir + (0^2)/21T for d1 and [r - (o^2)/2]T.
When you started, did you have strong emotions with your performance or losing money? If so, how long did it take for you to remove emotions money in your trading? For example, making a mistake or closing position for a loss and then all of a sudden it recovers, how did you remove the emotional effects to continue and move on? I tend to beat myself up on mistakes but I know I just need to learn from them and move on but sometimes it's difficult to shake off.
In the previous market outlook, you mentioned that higher interest rates don't seem to be having much of an effect. I did an analysis on CSX not long ago and noticed that CSX and its competitors issued a lot of debt shortly before the Fed started raising interest rates to combat inflation. I wouldn't be surprised if companies in other sectors did the same in anticipation of rate hikes.
If this is true, how much of an impact do you think rate hikes have on the overall economy?
Last week TLT pretty much rebounded but any idea why it fell at the beginning of the week? That was surprising to me and I found no reason for this.
Hello Prof. Meldrum
What are your thoughts on the consumers spending using their credit cards?
I don’t believe these GDP growth are natural, I think consumption continued but it was financed with debt and debt comes with very high rates as it does with credit card companies.
Also, do you think 1.5 trillion dollars in credit cards debt will become an issue? or do you think it a solvable problem?
Hi Mark, can you please elaborate a little bit on what the interpretation and the analysis of the movements of RRP, TGA, Reserves etc...? I mean every week you mention the movement but, what does that movement and what and how it impacts things?
Thanks.
Ok just saw that its in the applied series.
Hey prof, it seems the wealth transfer phenomenon we are witnessing is amplifying as is the erosion of the middle class. If salaries don't go up and the wealthy own most of everything, what would be the outcome? Do you foresee any economic adjustments, or are we the latin america in terms of disparity? Thank you,
How will utilities be able to invest for growth considering how indebted they are? I understand they earn a regulated return, but don’t the investments need to occur before their earnings really take off from this new demand?
What are your thoughts on private credit market (i.e. direct lending)? It’s been growing very fast and everyone seems optimistic about it. However not everyone acknowledges the risks of higher rates, interconnectedness to PE industry, limited transparency into valuations etc.
People say loans are safe as they are secured and they have tight terms/covenants, however high supply of capital (dry powder is very high) can soften the very terms as it already has to some extent with spreads tightening for recent deals. Do you think this could turn out to be a systemic risk?
Have you changed your OXY strike price given the somewhat mixed announcement from OPEC+?
As a non-US investor (or as a foreign investor generally speaking), what should I consider with regards to taxes when investing in foreign markets? Do you know of any good websites that compares taxes between countries?
During your live session, you mentioned that $T is on your watchlist for the time being. Could you share which other companies are on your watchlist or those you are actively engaging with by selling puts/employing an income factory strategy?
Hi Dr Mark, You said that you mostly enjoy the quantitatively driven subjects like FI, Derivatives in CFA curriculum. I am curious to know why you mostly like Sector studies module rather than Options and portfolio modules in applied level where latter two modules may more quantitatively driven than sector studies module
Another question: even tough you are not contributing to MM package development for CFA Level I & II, are you still recommend MM level I and II packages?
Hi Mark
In one of your past videos you mentioned that E in 12m-leading P/E for S&P 500 is Operating Earnings and not Net Earnings. Whereever I see printed P/E for NVDA (or any other stock), is E stands for Oper Earnings as well? Thanks
Hi dear Mark! How are you today?
I have a pretty simple and straightforward question. Right now I need to choose a topic for my Bachelor thesis. And one teacher only can offer me a topic connected to DCF: “Corporate Valuation. Estimate of Company Value”. The main method as I said will be DCF.
Can you please explain to me what do you personally think about DCF? Because I have read about it a little bit and people (even Buffet himself) are telling this is just a waste of time and there are more effective ways to calculate intrinsic value of a company.
But I still think that to gain more experience and knowledge in a subject I can take such Bachelor thesis. Is it okay how do you think?
Thanks so much in advance!
Why ADP is always wrong?
I heard your quite detailed explanation here about it but cannot find it.
Could you explain the how and why behind closing a short position in options?
Could you make a video showing how to calculate the book value of ABR? Having trouble getting the $13.04 book value per share you mentioned before
Shareholder equity less non-controlling interest less preferred shares, divided by share count.
Hi Mark. Wondering how you are assessing your EWW (Mexico) position given the new president elected and the index falling over 10% today
Any update about models which we’re gonna make from scratch in the applied level, that was also scheduled for September first week i guess
Originally I thought your sector analyst designation would be a designation for specific sectors. But it sounds like it would cover all sectors of the economy?
Thoughts on the Mexico/India sell off? Building a position?
Do you think Roaring Kitty's actions is considered market manipulation? Do you think his brokerage or regulators should do anything about it?
Re new positions: you’ve mentioned you added Canadian reits, eg IIP, MI, CAR with slow down increments: eg 11.90, 11.75, 11.58 etc. Does that mean you’ve sold puts in the morning for different strikes? If so, how many contracts is normally your one position in this case, for one strike price I mean.
Minto, Interrent, and Killam have no options - so I bought shares at those prices.
I had a CFA Level 1 subscription, wrote it May this year. Do I qualify for the $320?
Yes you do. Send a request to support@markmeldrum.com, as long of course as your CFA subscription was with markmeldrum.com. If not, then you will have to wait for the results in July.
hi mark, i have a question, i currently study economics statistics and data science , and the economics part is so unrealistic and unpractical with contrast to what it really is, im thinking of switching to accounting instead of economics, what is your thoughts about that, keep in mind i dont want to be CPA and i can do a finance degree because iam in europe. i love economics but not what they teach in university, so unpractical and unrealistic all thos theorists
Question about OXY and their potential as an attractive takeout target - I know that they acquired CrownRock just a few months ago and they’re not particularly what would you consider to be a small player - under what circumstances would an even larger producer (I’m assuming an integrated major) be interested in acquiring the company. Or why would Berkshire Hathaway look to increase its stake in the company?
Prime acreage for cheap oil extraction is the reason they would be viewed as an attractive takeout target (known as Tier 1 acreage) -- in addition to good proved reserves of oil under the ground (PDP).
Most O&G M&A transactions you are starting to hear in the news recently have no other ulterior motive except to secure future drilling inventory. For a blockbuster deal such as Chevron/Hess, you heard media commentators talking about a wide variety of possible motives for the acquisition. However, it's simple: Chevron had slim pickings on inventory (relative to peers) and needed new places to drill. The inventory Hess has (now Chevron, should the transaction close smoothly) includes nearly 11B barrels of oil offshore locations in Guyana -- which is why Exxon putting up a fight and going to court with Chevron/Hess over working interest contracts to secure said barrels, more on that if you Google it, should be a WSJ article.
Back to OXY, they sit on some of the finest pieces of acreage in the Western hemisphere (Permian & Delaware Basin) -- without the geopolitical risk of South America. Combined with OXY's midstream assets which can transport the oil for cheaper compared to competitors, it's a no-brainer if your a company sitting low on reserves. For the record though, I think Berkshire would increase stake only if they want to take it private so they don't have to deal with ESG BS. My two cents. Mark's two cents are probably better.
Thanks Dr. Mark.
Why not sell the news on rate cuts? We should not be at 530, it was only in anticipation of cuts that led us there. The AI/tech trade is also faltering. If your theory about financially sophisticated institutions hedging against rates is correct these will also unwind.
Tough to trade contra on everything. Sounds like you may have been late on some themes. There is always something that actually works and agrees with consensus.
Hi Dr. Mark, although I've signed up for MM Level 3, the price for the Applied Level series is still USD 440. will the USD 320 offer price be updated at a later date? just an fyi, I'm from Malaysia, if it affects anything.
thanks for all that you do.
Just add the CFA Level 3 + option, the difference will be 320 USD.
My new life goal is to become Mark's neighbor.
I think MM is an Alpine F1 fan.
Mexico and India markets sharply dropped on the elections results. How should we treat such political events? Is this just a buzz and a buying opportunity or should we place more weight on these? In both cases it's not like the opposing party got the majority. In mexico Obrador was replaced by his secretary and in India, Modi stays in power.
2:50
Dr Mark : CFA question, I am working in IT and completed CFA level 1/2 in 2018-19. Re-started level 3 journey and bought archive levels to get a refresher. Having some challenge without the PDF. I understand at the time of purchase it's clearly mentioned that PDF's are not available. But is that something you can reconsider? Lot of videos I can watch at 2X speed but having the document in front will help. Other listeners please vote if you have the same problem.
Can you explain why you do not prefer to just short SPY to hedge? Is it because you are responsible to pay for dividends and potentially margin interest? But my understanding is that you can keep the constant beta reduction if you are say short 30% SPY. Just trying to compare this against collars or put spread collars. Appreciate your thoughts.
Practical question: If you sell puts on a futures contract (e.g. HG) how to make sure you don’t have to take a delivery of the copper in case you are assigned the futures contracts? Would you always have to close your short position (buy some put options) before assignment or can you get assigned the futures contracts and then sell them on the spot market (and how to make sure you do that in time e.g. If you get assiged futures based on your Jun25’24/Jul put)
The only way to not be assigned is to buy back the short contract before it goes ITM, or, buy an already ITM call (again before assignment), the broker will usually assign against the long ITM contract leaving you with the difference. Or you could go long the number of contracts needed to net out any short delta you’re carrying.
Hii Mark, I was watching your bull put spread video, you insisted that it’s not a good strategy and one is bound to blow up in the longer term. My question is isn’t it better compared to naked short put as risk reward ratio is even worse in short put and if market corrects loss will be more in short put along with the margin requirements.
Could you explain why stocks of companies in the financial sector tend to trade at a discount to their NAVPS?
Mark the move to end the session was "window Dressing" was it not? End of week and end of month reporting better results to investors and bullying the market higher.
Are the hedge funds strategies covered in the CFA L2 achievable for retail investors?
What do you dislike about Boardwalk REIT vs the other Canadian apartment REITs?
Boardwalk does a terrible job with their properties, bad repute amongst tenants
The forecast for 0.3% Core PCE MoM was different from the Bloomberg forecast of 0.2% Core PCE MOM. So when I was watching the announcement, Mike McKee said that it came inline with forecasts. Why the difference? I think something like this could have an effect on perceptions for some people.
Hi Mark, I am currently an undergrad student in Canada and am thinking of writing level 1 in August 2025. I want to get the Applied Level before the price increases. My question is... since the latest exam I cannot currently register for L1 through CFAI and have to wait until early bird registration in November... can I still buy it now? Asking because I saw you may require proof of enrollment.
As a small investor, what trades would you make today or tomorrow to maximize the small investor advantage? You mentioned in some (old?) videos that this advantage could be significant, but I'm struggling to grasp how to implement it.
Hi dr Mark. NVDIA had been previously established as volatile stock with considerable price swings. I share the point that we don’t short stock like Nvda. I did however bought November $1060 put after earnings call announcement initial rally. Narrative on NVDA after the earnings seems to have solidified more with new type of chip and add’l business growth prospects. Prospects of price downturn in the next month or so seem low - Dr Mark, couple of words of critique on the put purchase, and possible position management strategies.
Can you explain why economic data releases have revisions to previous releases? For example, looking at the most recent PCE report and a handful of the previous PCE reports, the headline PCE index for previously reported months tends to fluctuate somewhat m/m.
These revisions also seem to affect a lot of other values within the report. In your PCE Applied video, the savings rate for March was shown as 3.2 compared to the most recent report released on Friday having 3.6 for March. In the video, you inferred that the decrease in savings rate and increase in consumption most probably means increased use of credit (that makes sense). However, looking at the most recent report, the savings rate has been relatively flat due to the revision. My question is: should we take these reports at face value or delay inferences until there are no longer revisions? Appreciate your insight and how you look at these reports. Sorry for the long question/comment!
How do you reconcile bearish view on EV and bullish (sold puts) on ONsemi that is heavily dependent on EV market?
Thank you for all of the exceptional content. I am very excited about the industry peer group module. I would love to suggest adding homebuilders as a potential group to examine. While they are heavily influenced by interest rates and other cyclical variables, there is significant differentiation in their strategies. Thanks again for all you do.
The thinking that the consumer is 100% of GDP would have been correct if the government is not running deficit spending
These earnings calendars are driving Dr. Meldrum insane 😝
Could you please give me a hand understanding the economics of income factory. Let’s imagine TLT, I sell 45 DTE put for $1.33, and the margin required is roughly $600.
Assuming the stock is not put to me and my only income is the premium. So I get $133, divide that by margin required and get roughly 22%, and that is for 45 days, annualised that gets roughly 180%. This looks too good to be true, where am I missing a point?
Margin requirement will be much more than $600. It would be 3x to 4x that amount depending on what country you are in.
Re TLT: by Wed evening TLT fell ~2.6% in just two days. I looked up for reasons on why it’s dropped but no sensible news came out to drive that decrease. Do you have any ideas on why it’s done so? I’ve sold 88 puts for $1.33.
TLT does not decrease or increase - yields do. As yields move, so will TLT. Yields climbed higher on concern that rates cuts won't be coming this year.