Market Outlook for Sep 22, 2024

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  • Опубліковано 15 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 90

  • @somerandomguy249
    @somerandomguy249 Місяць тому +7

    Big Daddy Dr. Mark!!! Thank you for everything.

  • @dignaga69
    @dignaga69 Місяць тому +59

    BABE WAKE TF UP

  • @George_Beth
    @George_Beth Місяць тому +4

    Hi Mark, you say you expect "TLT to go back to the 160s..." So you expect the 30y Treasury yield to fall significantly from current levels... What about all this talk about the fiscal deficit expanding further and thus much more supply of bonds coming in? Don't you believe that that could push yields higher instead of lower (or at least keep yields at current levels and not let them drop too much)?

  • @es_888
    @es_888 Місяць тому +6

    Can you please add the eurozone to the economic data? It’s bigger than Japan and much bigger than Canada

  • @curtis985
    @curtis985 Місяць тому +4

    Maybe we can get another sunset livestream now that you’re back in Costa Rica?

  • @AlphaBeta_Aura
    @AlphaBeta_Aura Місяць тому

    Thank you Dr Mark!
    1. Could you please do a video on how to manage margin and margin interest for different assets in the applied series.

  • @SomeOne-gi2gp
    @SomeOne-gi2gp Місяць тому +8

    Would love to hear your opinion about Aswath Damodoran’s latest UA-cam video about central banks.
    He basically goes against a lot of things we learn in the CFA program so I wonder what you make of his arguments.

    • @bretpm2422
      @bretpm2422 Місяць тому +6

      I think Damodaran’s video is consistent with what I read in the CFA program about central banks. The CFA reading was nuanced. Central banks could be given the power to set rates but The Fed only sets the interbank overnight rate. They present an argument about how that might transmit to other rates. They caution it could breakdown. They don’t present statistics to support it. It’s more of a description of how it might work. I recall the CFA reading discussing the belief in central banks as well. They cite examples where faith was lost and compare it to The Fed. The reading cautioned that even with faith participants would need a fairly clear signal. Otherwise the central bank’s use of it’s faith power is ineffective.

  • @DIB-z3o
    @DIB-z3o Місяць тому +1

    Hi Mark, how often are prior year/quarter earnings revised for public companies? Just wondering (when modeling) if you should take the time to review each line item for prior reporting periods to make sure they align with what you have from their initial report.

  • @Mray760
    @Mray760 Місяць тому +1

    Hi Mark, you mentioned a zero line is the only place to go because a digital world is deflationary and an increasing debt world is expense. Can you elaborate further on how these two forces will cause rates to go to zero? The general consensus is rates will stay elevated to maintain and service the high levels of debt.

  • @扣扣米
    @扣扣米 Місяць тому +2

    What’s your take on FCX and HG after Tuesday’s rally? I got stuck with a negative delta on FCX (600 shares; 6 Sep’27 45c and 2 Sep’27 45.5c) and would appreciate any advice on how to unwind it.

  • @Ree-n3u
    @Ree-n3u Місяць тому +3

    Thanks for the vid Mark. Btw would it be possible if you change the upload day of the Costco videos to Friday? That way it's easier to use the weekend to watch and apply them all. Leaving the idea here...

    • @gertrudes666
      @gertrudes666 Місяць тому +1

      Cant you watch them later?

    • @Ree-n3u
      @Ree-n3u Місяць тому

      ​@@gertrudes666Just giving a suggestion... Chill.

  • @t-zero8880
    @t-zero8880 Місяць тому

    excellent analysis. Love these market outlooks.

  • @shohruhuktamov5097
    @shohruhuktamov5097 Місяць тому

    Hi Dr. Meldrum,
    Any changes in your top 3 highest conviction trades?
    With XLU and FCX having such an incredible run in the past months, do you think there is more room for them to go up?

  • @Dimehb8889
    @Dimehb8889 Місяць тому

    hey mark, would you say its a good time to get out of home builders stocks. My argument with the economy stimulated, material prices would rise ...

  • @mindofalix7024
    @mindofalix7024 Місяць тому

    Hi Mark, thanks again for the analysis. I’m a long time listener but have been missed the couple months of videos. I have two questions for, and apologies if this has already been covered.
    1. How did we get here on gold. Over the past few years it seemed an uneventful place to be, surprisingly given the economic conditions at the time (high inflation, money printing, etc). Do you believe it’s purely market sentiment?
    2. With technology advancement being deflationary, what’s your point of view on how the rate cuts will impact the venture capital industry, where deal pace slowed over the past few year? Can VC be the catalyst for kickstarting deflation?

  • @JackDaniels-x2q
    @JackDaniels-x2q Місяць тому

    Hey Mark,
    1. What is the underlying mechanism that drives real yields? Is it demand for TIPS aka higher inflation expectations, pushing up prices pulling down real yields on TIPS? Or, is there a bigger picture that I am missing?
    2. Is there a free website that you know of that has aggregated all of the OAS data for IG, HY, AA, etc?
    3. You mentioned in a previous Q&A that you have enough plans for the applied level to last you a decade. I was wondering what are some of the first things you're interested in adding after you complete the financial modeling series.
    Thanks

  • @NINTENDOPOKEMON100
    @NINTENDOPOKEMON100 Місяць тому

    Given your position on USD:CAD are you investing in the NYSE listings of the new positions operating in canada - I noticed a few of them are dual listed?
    I feel like Damodaran's argument on the fed was that it's a follower of the macro environment an not markets? I can see it's mandates forcing it's hand in certain economic conditions, but I'm unsure how we'd be pricing debt if it didn't make decisions?

  • @shqipe333
    @shqipe333 Місяць тому +1

    What are your thoughts on cybersecurity stocks over the mid to long term? With AI rollout and expansion coupled with greater interconnectivity, I believe this subsector will be vital. However, there is certainly risk with breaches (like in the case of CrowdStrike).

  • @dbehr4869
    @dbehr4869 Місяць тому +2

    mark what did you do with your Tesla short?

    • @brianfranco96
      @brianfranco96 Місяць тому

      elon got a haircut

    • @blake1473
      @blake1473 Місяць тому

      Rule #1: never shine light on your losses

  • @SmallInvestor-ec4xg
    @SmallInvestor-ec4xg Місяць тому

    Hey Dr Mark,
    1) Would you sell theta with an expiration right BEFORE earnings? I'm thinking no, because of the increased volatility before those days (thinking GM Oct 18's in particular)
    2) How do you avoid selling theta on underlyings that share the same risk factor - i.e. Duration, such as banks, TLT, utilities, REITs (even though they follow diversification rule of no more than 25% max delta per sector, 15% max delta per industry)? Do you care about being too exposed to duration in your theta sleeve?

  • @jaeyoungchoi6790
    @jaeyoungchoi6790 Місяць тому

    thanks mark. any opinion on EVs?? do you think market today generally is overestimating or underestimating growth potential and timeframe of EV market? thanks

  • @blake1473
    @blake1473 Місяць тому

    While you can argue the symmetry between hikes and cuts on the sp500 companies. It can be argued that cuts will impact the consumer and as a result a positive impact on earnings

  • @jaytailor5048
    @jaytailor5048 Місяць тому

    Hi Mark, based on the forward curve, how many rate cuts do you anticipate for the BOC by the end of 2025?

  • @whitleyparrish
    @whitleyparrish Місяць тому

    Hi Mark,
    I'm curious about your recent positions on ZQ and TLT (short ZQ and short TLT 100 put) as they seem to contradict each other. Can you elaborate on your thoughts on that?
    You mentioned not using financial modeling for stock valuation (especially for retail investors) due to the many assumptions involved . If that's the case then how do you determine if a stock is undervalued?
    Thanks

  • @wealthnhealth80
    @wealthnhealth80 Місяць тому +1

    "Academic masturbation" @ 18:22 😂😂😂😂 I almost spit out my food😅😅

  • @srh80
    @srh80 Місяць тому

    What do you think of large US banks? (JPM, C, BAC). They seem to be fairly priced given historical pricing ratios, so not sure. Obviously with rate cuts and a upward sloping yield curve they would benefit and likely churn higher into next year. Risk I think is that if a recession hits, historically US banks have a proclivity to hide skeletons in their closets

  • @kevinkr
    @kevinkr Місяць тому

    What is meant by "duration"?

  • @LDacic
    @LDacic Місяць тому

    will there be a livestream from Cost Rica today? if so, at what time? cheers

  • @uu123-g4r
    @uu123-g4r Місяць тому

    1)tips on how to prepare for cfa should i just watch videos then go to notes and question banks?
    2)should we skip reading the book ?
    3)once i have seen in live stream you were saying about how the prices have risen up in costco for goods like olive oil costs some $30 now which used to costs $22,what i want to ask that since you are financially well that shouldn't bother you like you can buy anything you want ,right?ALTHOUGH I LIKED that you were concerned
    4)when can you(or we) say you(or we) have mastered something? IS THAT like you can answer every OR ALMOST all questions OR WHAT IS IT?

  • @TheFreeRange
    @TheFreeRange Місяць тому

    at around 59:05, What do you mean 'Duration' when you said overall you liked Duration and Gold? What securities would constitute duration - would long TLT give exposure to duration?

  • @user14890
    @user14890 Місяць тому

    Hi Mark
    In general, is it better to buy gold mining company (NEM, GOLD) or gold instead (futures, ETF etc.)? What gold ETF there is as good as COPX for copper?

  • @gertrudes666
    @gertrudes666 Місяць тому +2

    Utilities will be a growing/expanding sector for some time

  • @iQeLabs
    @iQeLabs Місяць тому +2

    Hi Mark, I am considering a switch into teaching at a university. Been in industry for 20 years and would like to share my real world learnings with students. Do you recommend a switch at this point in my career? I’m about 10 years from retirement. I am a bit concerned AI will take over at bigger universities in the next decade. I’m in a field that is starting to develop AI products.

    • @user-rb4lv4if9q
      @user-rb4lv4if9q Місяць тому

      Im interested in transitioning into teaching too in the long term

  • @Ryanaxm
    @Ryanaxm Місяць тому

    Good day Mark, I am currently employed full time and through the guidance of yourself I am almost at the point where I can replace my full time income trading part time…. I am in Canada and my question is regarding going full time investor/trader/etc similar in some ways to yourself. How does the income and taxes work in Canada when someone is running their own money full time? Do I pay tax as I would as an employee based on my tax bracket or do I need to setup a company and run the money through the company and pay myself out of that? I cannot seem to get my head around this part….. Thanks as always. Ryan

  • @dr_spocckkk
    @dr_spocckkk Місяць тому

    Hi Mark, I've noticed that the margin requirement for writing a single put option has increased, while the premium has decreased since the rate cut occurred. Is this change due to the rate cuts, or could it be related to something specific to my account?

  • @chrislian9239
    @chrislian9239 Місяць тому

    If the main goal for the FED is going to 0%, and the USD to be depreciated. Is it feasible to all in 30y bond and leverage into emerging market non-usd assets?

  • @FineTrak
    @FineTrak Місяць тому

    Since there's a good story for Uber, it sounds like it's great to go long. Have you considered going long on it?
    As someone in their mid 20s, i know xlk is great, but I can't bring myself to invest in it at this moment given that it's priced to perfection already. Would you rotate from xlu to xlk if you were in your 20s? I'm planning to start a portfolio tomorrow of 20 80 xlk xlu and gradually increase it up to 80 20 as rate cuts near its end but rotating may not be yield as great results as a 60 40 portfolio. I'm hoping to use REITs and options to produce income as I gain more experience and increase my portfolio size since it's possible to get growth like yields as you've been able to accomplish.

  • @smittywerberjaegarmenjense3566
    @smittywerberjaegarmenjense3566 Місяць тому

    Hi Mark,
    Hope all is well. I’m a new viewer to your channel and your market outlook videos really got me hooked and interested in economics/finance. I’ve learned so much about the markets from the outlook videos/Q&As, but with every new video it seems like there’s a new exchange/commodity/rate that I haven’t heard of before. Are there any pre-requisite subjects I should familiarize myself with? How would you recommend a newbie like me learn to better understand your content?

  • @Flec14
    @Flec14 Місяць тому

    Hey mark, can you explain how a long positions in puts can be negative 1,5% on a -0.30% move in the underlying? Vol was slightly up that day. It cant only be theta …I have 1 month 1/2 till expiration. FYI its on TLT and every put options contract that day was negative, even for those closer to the money. Asking for a lot here, but it pisses me off that when tlt was up by 0.30% I was down 15% on my positions and now I lost on a similar down move. The asymmetry in returns is very pronounced, TLT was at 99.5 when I bought the options its now below that and im still net down by quite a lot

  • @yojmb9
    @yojmb9 Місяць тому

    In your opinion, why is deflation so bad?

  • @shqipe333
    @shqipe333 Місяць тому

    Do you believe the ease of access to the markets for retail investors has created a more or less efficient market? There are arguments for both sides but wanted to hear your take!

  • @dr_spocckkk
    @dr_spocckkk Місяць тому

    Microsoft and Tesla are investing billions of dollars to develop their own energy infrastructure, addressing their future energy needs independently. This highlights the growing demand within the utility sector. However, neither company is part of XLU nor collaborating with any of the companies listed in XLU. Given that these tech giants are building their own energy ecosystems, do you think XLU will perform as well as expected?

  • @sviatoslavkuzenniy2182
    @sviatoslavkuzenniy2182 Місяць тому

    Dr.Mark, what would be few cost efficient strategies to reduce the delta, for long position after incurred losses, due to downgrade forecast of one of investment analysts, while consensus of more than 30 analysts is still BUY?

  • @Jakesobieski
    @Jakesobieski Місяць тому

    How is an inverted yield curve a sign of a potential recession? How does it impact the economy?

  • @timken100
    @timken100 Місяць тому

    I often see in IBKR news feed "NYSE ORDER IMBALANCE $X Y SHARES ON SELL/BUY SIDE" do you know what this means? Can this be a useful signal ?

  • @MichaelLee-b6l
    @MichaelLee-b6l Місяць тому

    Flagging a typo on your slide “curvature” versus “Curavture”. What’s my prize?

  • @sdfergf
    @sdfergf Місяць тому

    Hi Mark-How do you view the upcoming maturity wall in 2025 with US Treasurys? There are currently about $6 trillion in tbills outstanding as of August 31st, and presumably all of that would need to be redeemed in 2025. Is there a risk of a big crowding out moment if reserves are declining in 2025 due to balance sheet run off and then all this treasury issuance would need to funded at the same time? Could that lead to a major risk off moment if other assets needed to be sold to fund treasury issuance?

  • @MrDeadlyCrow
    @MrDeadlyCrow Місяць тому

    Should we go back to gold stabdard?

  • @RONITSAHOOmba
    @RONITSAHOOmba Місяць тому

    1)you once said you don't know at what price market will end today ,but can we say like the market will be up or down based on the type of news,LIKE IF good news then UP and if bad news then DOWN?
    2)do you work all day ,like stare at the screen for 9-10 hrs making startegies etc?HOW MUCH time according to you someone should put in as a beginner?
    3)you said in live stream invest in growth stocks in your 20s and forget about it,SO DO YOU think in 20s one should just invest in growth stockS and not trade in stocks, options or anything else AND IN 30s you trade?WHY?
    4)will there be any course in future how to make equity research reports?DO YOU READ EQUITY RESEARCH REPORTS?
    5)the different reports that big banks like goldman gives dont you think they manipulate their report or CAN manipulate it?

  • @anusuyarout4363
    @anusuyarout4363 Місяць тому

    1)what investors ,traders or persons in financial world, you respect their thinking(on various aspects of market) and their WORK?
    2)do you consume any books or podcasts, videos or anything like that about MARKETS OR anything related to financial world ?CAN YOU NAME THEM
    3)as a employer what do you look out for in an employee, that will deserve promotion bonuses etc

  • @FinanceFanatic-p8b
    @FinanceFanatic-p8b Місяць тому

    1)how many sectors one should specialise in ,is there any ideal number?
    2)for a beginner how many sectors one should pick up while starting out and WHY?
    3) are there any certain rules OR DO YOU have certain rules before buying anything ,lets take an EXAMPLE iphone of $1000?
    4)if lets say i put the above question in a situation like you are just starting out your career and making $12000 a year,WILL it change anything?
    5)are the above two questions are of personal finance ,if so HOW can we learn it?

  • @ranialchakaki5927
    @ranialchakaki5927 Місяць тому

    Can you please give us a breakdown of why Gold is skyrocketing compared to the last 15 years

  • @SomeOne-gi2gp
    @SomeOne-gi2gp Місяць тому

    Not related to finance but I just watched a video titled “Why Do Canadians Go Ballistic in War” and I had no idea Canadians were historically so brutal during war time and considered part of the elite forces.

  • @chh8086
    @chh8086 Місяць тому

    Good update. Hope they didn’t take anymore doorknobs while you were gone.

  • @tgow7304
    @tgow7304 Місяць тому

    Hi Mark, I have a question regarding the CFA Level 1 August 2025 attempt.
    I’m planning to take the L1 exam in August 2025, but I understand that the registration for that exam doesn't start until November 6th, 2024. Additionally, the results for the Access Scholarship won't be out until January 2025 (if I apply for it).
    Given this, can I purchase your course now, or do I need to wait until I’ve paid the CFA exam fees and enrolled? I’ve also heard that we need to provide our CFA username and password to continue accessing your course. Could you clarify how this works for someone preparing for the August 2025 attempt?
    Thanks in advance!

    • @digikhobeats4609
      @digikhobeats4609 Місяць тому

      I think you have to be enrolled to the exam to have access to MM video courses, but even if you aren't enrolled and therefore couldn't pay for MM, you have free access on MM platform to all the 2018 videos which cover mostly the same stuff as the 2025 videos. Can be a way to start studying without being enrolled yet.

    • @tgow7304
      @tgow7304 Місяць тому

      @@digikhobeats4609 i've heard that MAJOR changes have been made to the syllabus since 2018 so yeah that would be tough

    • @digikhobeats4609
      @digikhobeats4609 Місяць тому

      @@tgow7304 I am unsure about that, but maybe they changed some stuff for very specific topics (like they added a los about crypto assets...) but most of the syllabus is intemporal and what was true in 2018 still is true today tbh. I mean for example all the time value of money formulas (and the whole quantitative methods chapter as well) aren't gonna change. Mark changed a bit his videos format asfaik but if you master the quantitative methods of 2018 before getting to the 2025 course, you would gain a looot of time.

  • @jdinh21
    @jdinh21 Місяць тому

    If the federal fund rate projections were lower for 2024-2026 compared to the June projections, then why did TLT go down in price?

    • @joaco190
      @joaco190 Місяць тому

      TLT is a 20y bond based basket, a sector which is mostly driven by the market view of the long run average interest rate, that is the “long run neutral level”. This SEP rose the long run dot for i think the second or third time this year. Market is ahead of this in pricing (dealers and participant surveys have been indicating a higher long run neutral level for a long time), so changes in rates is post the meeting is participants consolidating new possible distribution of levels past the confirmation that also the fed is acknowledging that the long run neutral is higher

  • @mcsub
    @mcsub Місяць тому +1

    15:50 Hello from Turkey! 🤕

  • @gossdaboss
    @gossdaboss Місяць тому

    PHYS vs GLD?

  • @okok-w7v
    @okok-w7v Місяць тому

    1)how do you remember all the information you read?
    2)how to improve my memory I CANNOT retain things what i have read 2 days back?
    3)how to improve focus and concentration?DO YOU think our generation(or is it just me?) have problems with memory and focus because of mobile phones and social media?
    4)the problem i am facing with focus,concentration and memory,,DO YOU THINK IT CAN BE GENETIC?

  • @dr_spocckkk
    @dr_spocckkk Місяць тому

    Mark, I truly appreciate your dedication to your work. Even while traveling to Costa Rica last week, you still managed to post all your videos and didn't even skip a 3hrs of live session. It must have been exhausting, especially after an international trip, but you handled it exceptionally well. That level of commitment and hard work is truly impressive.
    I completely understand your frustration about losing money to taxes and seeing it go to those who may not have earned it. It's tough, especially knowing how hard you worked and how passionate you are about what you do.

  • @jasonr2171
    @jasonr2171 Місяць тому

    If there's an over/under on the election outcome being decided by Nov 7, I'll take the over.

  • @depankarlaldas2161
    @depankarlaldas2161 Місяць тому +1

    At 2 PM, just after seeing the 50 bps cut, I closed my short dated TLT long put and short call fearing possible run up by TLT and sold OTM put and bought OTM call. Could you please criticise my moves? Should I have waited to see the market reaction? I am feeling like I behaved like typical retail investors who generally lose money in the market being so hasty. Thank you.

  • @gertrudes666
    @gertrudes666 Місяць тому

    Increasing deficits benefit Utilities stocks

  • @djaj7144
    @djaj7144 Місяць тому

    Hey Mark

  • @gertrudes666
    @gertrudes666 Місяць тому

    Gold remains well supported going into 2025

  • @WesleyYappy-n1m
    @WesleyYappy-n1m Місяць тому

    8:39 - 14:59

  • @gertrudes666
    @gertrudes666 Місяць тому

    GM could be considered a value trap because of their fixed costs and high debt

  • @michaelmtenga5387
    @michaelmtenga5387 Місяць тому

    LOL ACADEMIC masterbation no DIDDY

  • @WasteSecond
    @WasteSecond Місяць тому

    39:49