2024 Kentucky Derby Best Bets with Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss
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- Опубліковано 29 кві 2024
- PTF sits down with Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss of NBC to preview the award-winning NBC coverage of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby this weekend. Hear thoughts, tips, and analysis from the famed friends as they talk about all aspects of the Derby, from the likely favorites to the pace to historical trends to the effect of post positions. Can Forever Young be the first Japanese horse to win the Derby? Will the good or the bad Fierceness show up? Is Sierra Leone going to get buried down inside? Who are the vulnerable favorites? Who are some live longshots? Watch to find out the answers to these questions and many more.
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This is awesome. Randy and Jerry are great to take the time to do this outside the trailers! Bailey was my favorite jockey of all time! He would demolish these jocks today.
not with his alcohol habit
CIGAR ! ❤
@@jamesmoses6092 Cigar was a great horse ! ... mean though .... they had him on display at Kentucky Horse Park for a few years and he was one you couldn't pet or give a carrot to - he bit !
First time seeing the show and I love it, thanks so much and I’ll be subscribing.
It’s the most popular show because it’s the best show in the Internet… Thank you so much for white abareo in the breeders club classic… Amazing I made a fortune
Jerry Bailey & Randy Moss two legends in the horse racing industry!
Always a pleasure to have them
Maybe Jerry Bailey .
Love em!
Thanks for interview.. good stuff
Thank you 2 savvy, classy experts for the Torpedo Anna pick...paid $11 gives me some betting money for the Derby tomorrow 👍🏾...I wanna do a trifecta...any thoughts? Of course I'll tip you through PayPal haha 😄
Jerry made the best derby ride ever 1996 Grindstone
He's a hall of famer for a reason
That French horse 133-1 👀
I had him
yeah, he beat me by a nose, and made my 100 tickets worthless.
Best Derby ride ever tie: The Shoe with Ferdinand, and Mccarron almost falling off alysheba..
Bailey and Cigar was my favorite combo of all time
Bill Clinton and a cigar is mine..
Thank you to this show I bet on Thorpedo Anna and made a nice score!
Honor Marie has the Smart Strike mare thing going for him
Love Smart strike.
Horse bred well but I am baffled by the love affair with this horse. Its last race was almost 1:51. (1 1/8) That will not cut it .
SO TOO is Resilience ❤😊
Maybe
Joining from Texas - thanks for the fun
Great thoughts on this tough Derby. I would just like to add that ALL these horses will be more mature in this race than they were in their last race. So while Sierra Leone may progress off his last race, any of these may do the same thing.
yeah i think Domestic Product has a major shot
This was great analysis.
Those guys always great
Royalty ❤❤❤❤❤ no matter what!!!! Respect them 4 ever!!! From Marie in Buena Park CA USA ❤❤❤
Endlessly
I;'d be thrilled for connections.
I like him also... definate in my fectas
Great job!!!
Thank you, Hector!
Hope that I can be able to see it live thanks for your pod cast
Love this
Best prep show bar none. Ty
Love it-Both Ignore POWER SQUEEZE.
Randy Moss is simply the best
Randy was a Dallas handicapping legend
pay attention to Randy Moss
No doubt he knows his stuff
Maybe you are right, but fierceness must be for sure on any trifecta or superfecta
I really liked watching this, Thanks Jerry and Randy!
Yes Fierceness, Yes, Forever Young, Yes, Sierra Leone. All great horses, any could win, depends on jockey and post position. In the end, the horse with the most heart will cross first. I am cheering for Llarry D's horse, West.
Great Show. You got some so great info from two very smart knowledgeable data collectors. I got some great info,. You pulled it out from them by just by letting them answer!!! Bravo.
Just A Touch or Dornoch. Updating my final rankings with the scratch of Encino…
Final 2024 Kentucky Derby Rankings
1. Fierceness (No. 16)
2. Sierra Leone (No. 2)
3. Just A Touch (No. 8)
4. Stronghold (No. 17)
5. Resilience (No. 18)
6. Just Steel (No. 6)
7. Catching Freedom (No. 4)
8. Honor Marie (No. 7)
9. Forever Young (No. 10)
10. Endlessly (No. 13)
11. West Saratoga (No. 12) 👀
12. Society Man (No. 19) 👀
13. Mystik Dan (No. 3)
14. Domestic Product (No. 14)
15. Epic Ride (No. 20)
16. Track Phantom (No. 11)
17. Dornoch (No. 1)
18. Catalytic (No. 5)
19. Grand Mo the First (No. 15)
20. T O Password (No. 9)
The number in parentheses is the post they’re breaking from. Not their program number. Fierceness will no longer break from the winless No. 17 and will break from No. 16.
I’m heavily considering tossing both Fierceness and Sierra Leone. This is the type of the race that can screw up everyone. We’re acting boastful now acting like some know-it-all but the last few Derbies have humbled us. Were you boastful when you watched Rich Strike passed right on by Epicenter and Zandon? Or how about when Angel of Empire only mustered up 3rd last year losing to a maiden winner who was unraced at 2? And Angel of Empire accomplished nothing after like Mage.
I don’t want to wait an entire year for the Derby to bet on favorites. And it’s not like the favorites have been winning the last 5 Derbies. I want to profit nicely. Fierceness and Sierra Leone have enough question marks that makes me want to toss both out. I’ll be tossing Forever Young too. These Japanese horses are the most annoying entries. I had Crown Pride in 2022 and he did nothing. UAE Derby winners are still 0-19. Why take Forever Young at anything below 20-1?
I still don’t know which ones will be my main plays. I wasn’t crazy when Stronghold and Resilience got No. 18 and No. 19 which is now No. 17 for Stronghold and No. 18 for Resilience. That post position draw was terrible for most of my top picks except for Honor Marie. Just A Touch was on the brink of falling out of my top 10 before he got No. 8.
With Encino out, I still think Just A Touch will run a 46 and 1:10. And if Fierceness is close, he’s going to fade next to Just A Touch like what I saw with Messier and Taiba in 2022 and Verifying and Reincarnate in 2023. Fierceness is already at a disadvantage even if he now gets post No. 16. There’s too much ground he’s already losing early. Racing gods keeps cursing Pletcher with bad post positions.
While that Blue Grass winner jinx may continue to grow to 33 years and it’s not like Sierra Leone had a fast closing time. West Saratoga closed faster than him. The two favorites’ odds are way too low for the questions they need to answer.
I may blindfold myself and pick my main plays from there. Maybe put win bets on Just A Touch, Stronghold, Resilience, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Endlessly, West Saratoga, Society Man, and Epic Ride. I need at least 8-1 on these horses. I refuse to play Fierceness and Sierra Leone at anything below 4-1. They’re starting to look like a sucker’s bet. Fierceness is another Derby favorite duping the betting public who think they know everything by looking at speed figures.
Thanks for commenting!
I like your 2-9. Fierceness gets into trouble early.. he's maybe fuk'd... but he is Class.. maybe digs out of it... your 2-9 are my horses i keep leaning too..
Joke Of A Ranking! After Fierceness, If You Bet The Top Rated, You Wouldn’t Make Any Money
Dornoch has nothing to lose
I agree,they can't be left out.
Love these guys ❤❤❤🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
John Velazquez is scheduled to ride 8 races before the feature event, 10 furlongs on the dirt. Ben Curtis is fixed to ride just the Kentucky Derby, on Honor Marie. A good finisher.
Yes maybe a little odd they didn't try to get a pickup ride or two. But it's very competitive obviously. Big Ben Curtis fan.
Yay, my 2 favs !
Always enjoy them in this informal context
@@ptfornataleabsolutely
Nice job guys
Peter: Congrats on the proper use of “enamored of”. And good show.
English major!
@@ptfornatale I knew it. I was going to posit that. (Journalism here.) Keep up the good work.
One important factor they did not talk about is about Sierra Leone.
He has a inside post and will save some ground, BUT with not expecting a suicidal pace, the 2nd and 3rd rows of horses will be bunched up and Sierra Leone will most likely need to find room to get to the outside. That most likely mess up his chances.
Forever Young is my horse to watch and think Im watching his grandfather Sunday Silence. Oh-Im forgetting pedigree through the Dam-A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew.
I love your analysis 😂 I got the coffee pot noisy and finishing brewing and I swear the king just whispered “as many as 9 lengths.” I might still be asleep in my defense. I have a similar setup but I think Sierra Leone gets there at the end. He’ll have won by a half length over fierceness, 5 back Honor Marie, Just Ayyyy Touch(the Fonzie horse) and yep Catching Freedom. I’ll have all 3 at that spot. 17/2, 4/7/8. Is it possible to box 2/17 for 1st & 2nd and box 4/7/8 3rd and 4th?
The 20 horse looks like he’s got all the speed and stigma to win this race. He should be the favorite of the race.
Who’s your long shot?
Going on record now and throwing in Resilience as a shot in my exacta.
I’ve been commenting on some of the posts and have done a little research since then and after fully handicapping this card, outside of the couple really nice races from Fierceness , this is one of the poorest fields talent wise I’ve seen in a while. I advise looking for the closers for the long stretch run of the Derby. The majority of these horse are running 1:50 and change in the mile and 1/8th. That is very average. My safe bet is probably going to be a 4 horse exacta box and call it a day. Potentially a couple small win tickets on some shots .
Love the picture of fierceness with Irad on him. Maybe it’s a sign?
Not sure of what!
To RM and JB. Please educate me and tell me how you concoct the projected fractions of 22-46-110???
I once prepared a chart of all fractions for derby, which considered wet and sloppy tracks, and found the final average in those conditions to be as fast as 2:02 to and slow as :2:04? Fast track :1:59.
I think it was just from looking back through the PPs
No one gives Dornach a chance to go wire to wire but I don’t think we have seen his best race yet. This is the 3rd start off the layoff for Dornach and if he is able to correct the lead change issue he could have another gear just when it will be needed most. I’m fading both favorites and hoping for bad racing luck for both. A slow start could sink Fierceness and Sierra Leone could easily find road trouble coming from the back. Honor Marie and Catching freedom will be in my wagers with Dornach.
You'll get paid if you are right!
Im betting $20 bucks He Goes Wire to Wire.. if not... ih well.. way worth the bet..
with Dornoch bad trip last race, I think he can go wire to wire. if Sierra Leone races his race, I think it will open up the rail for Dornoch coming out the gate. and Dornoch beat Sierra Leone third race back with a little extra boost to win by a nose. and your right he's not getting the press like everyone else is.
If ifs and buts were cherries and nuts...
rever young and Catch freedom are also 3rd off, one of my fav angles. Dornach will wire the field if he was the lone speed . I see 5 horses or more pushing him hard early. I love FY and DP ..
Do you think,if kick back is a problem for Forever Young,would he bolt to get to the front or near the front. With Track Fanthom on his right T. O. Password on his left,cold we see a heightened times for the 1/4 and 1/2
It's possible but they didn't try that in the last race and I'm not sure he's fast enough.
Forever young HAD A HUGE BIAS in his favor last time...he is guaranteed to run 17th
Where is Mystic Dan on your Derby list of horses?
Typo -- shoulda been the 3
Those guys are having fun thats what its about
That's it!
What is this "bail us out" horse listed in 3?
I'm not sure what you mean?
ah I see now -- a typo
Thats Still Bush leauge BS
A mistake
Randy n Jerry are great. ✌️
The best!
The best way to hit a longshot is to find a horse that previously ran well at Churchill Downs. Rich Strike's lone win before the Derby came at Churchill, and he won it by 19 lengths.
At least one of Justify's progeny could be the X factor that many will overlook. I like the pattern that comes from the Dam of Affirmed, who has a double x. Mr. Bailey knows all too well how D W L can get a three yr. old colt ready for the first Saturday in May.
Steve is going to win his first Derby
Guys I hear this fierceness break issue and don’t buy it because he is always outside in every race he has run pressing or leading it. He had Irad and Johnny V, that’s what the best do. Maybe he wants some competition??
We shall see!
Dude , I saw that Florida Derby race and even though people complain about the competition, it is a grade 1 and the horse ran 1:48 and change without breaking a sweat drawing clear. Can definitely do the 1 3/16 . He runs like that no one will catch him. Speed rating was 107! I know, too good to be true
Any thoughts if it rains.
Not ideal for Fierceness but I think he handles it.
Stronghold will Shock the World!!
😂 What happened to Tapit Trice? He was a monster closer as well.
Funny how no one is commenting as they're either drunk or pissed. Fierceness did everything that JB said he needed to win and ended up going from 1st to 15th. I bet 2-3-4-13 using my system of my name,Dan,and never leaving out the 2 and 4 along with my lucky 13.
Now what I saw was sierra Leone n forever young should benefit in either Preakness and or Belmont as both best the hell out of each other on last turn while Catching Freedom on rail got smacked around also n is worth playing.
Bailey was a great jockey not so a tv host. Before the Belmont he said after the Preakness Justify looked very tired. After the race Mike Smith, the rider, said he came out great. Guess who was right.
The inside always has the shortest route and a top jock can keep a good horse where he needs to be,
Verifying caused a fast pace there will be insane pace with TO Password Track Phantom Just a Touch and Dornoch will be cutting Fierceness off
I thought I added a comment It seems to me that several weeks ago there was a little bit of a buzz about Wayne Lucas's horse in the Derby I'm talking about the other justify horse just steel I watched that Arkansas Derby over and over again I saw horse that went wide on both turns I saw a horse that was challenged during the course of the early part of the race several times was passed I saw a horse patiently written I see a horse that basically if muth was not in the race just steal wins it by a large margin I think he's improving I heard talk about him being a long shot two and a half weeks ago haven't heard a damn thing since everyone jumps on this horse that was raced maybe two times three times the other justified horse they jump on these other horses also if you go back 75 years 80 years one the Kentucky Derby at that point in time on the years ago was only a $10,000 race and a horses that entered it or admiral all those horses citation they all ran 20 times before the derby 30 times before the derby why is that well the way I see it everyone wants to mollycoddle these horses now because people are spending a couple million dollars to buy this horse a horse so you don't want him to break down you race him in a large quality race with a large purse so you win the price back that you paid for them real fast then what happens they very seldom go on to race the 4-year-old year maybe they do most of the time there are immediately retired to the breeding shed why why not race any longer because the value will go down if they didn't shoot or die on the track they can't make the millions of dollars in breeding fees so they only race these horses very lightly Wayne Lucas basically a throwback he races his horses into contention and so contrary to all the very very astute handicappers and the jockeys like Jerry Bailey with all that said I'm absolutely surprised Jerry Bailey being an older man should know how David Wayne Lucas trains his horses like the old school days and I'm very surprised that only a few days before the Kentucky Derby I keep listening to all these new pundits come forth and now one of them has said a word about just Steel they look at the angles of the jockeys like the Irad Ortiz Jr who sits on a 30 to one shot in the derby who I really don't like just because he's joking now because I don't like the horse I don't see the horses being a viable real contender not that a good jock he can't but I seem to recall a young man a 16-year-old Steven Cauthen winning the Kentucky Derby so I see no reason why Keith aschmussen from a horse racing family who's also going to be racing against all his father's horse who is training a horse in the Derby also his father's a top notch trainer so why can't he be a top notch jockey but more than the top notch jockey that he's become he has in my belief a horse that has every possibility of winning the Kentucky Derby sitting 4th or 5th like he's been doing in all his races you see what I like about that horse just deal is that he seems to engage right from the beginning of the race He's engaged in all of his races where is Sierra Leone All you got to do is a local long in the background and start picking horses off in the back stretch and making a run around the turn so he's loafing the majority of the race I like a horse that's engaged in the race from the moment the flag falls to that's all Even if he isn't first out of the gate He's no worse than 4th or 5th and I think this Keith ashmussen is a hell of a decent young jockey who by the way has a master's degree from college I think that says a lot about his intelligence and he's been schooled by the top people in the horse racing industry from his father to Wayne Lucas to all the other people around that he hangs around learning from so I think just steal has a decent shot and not just being in the money but literally winning the race The horse is bred out of loyalty justified winner of the triple crown just like the other justify horse The only difference is he's got more training and racing under his belt so he's learned a lot more and is faced more adversity to overcome then these lightly raced horses enough said from my little statement Hope you like my addition to the intelligent race players and race people like Jerry Bailey
I agree!!!
Forever young sits a beautiful trip out the 10 hole. Not even worried about kickback he will sit 3 w in 6th n make his run in the stretch. Lets goooo!!!!!
I may throw him in for 2nd. Depends on the price
Dornoch, with his bad trip last race. I think he's going wire to wire! and with Fierceness, it's a bounce day! Just a thought. it's horse racing! lol GOOD LUCK!
Dornoch is 3rd rate...save your money..
Power Squeeze had the most Oaks runners. And Ran right past Ways and Means
Sierra Leone is a beast,be a train rolling down that stretch
We shall see!
Just steel is a super beast...ran best race in best prep last time..
@@marklewen9384I got 17/2,6 and my shot 19 Resilience. Just Steel has a good speed rating. Probably 3rd best
If Fierceness gets away on the turn Leone will just be playing catchup,and in the slop.
Wet track looms in forcast
We shall see.
Endlessly in a battle with Fierceness followed by Just Steele and Honor Marie
Fierceness will explode around the turn if a horse rolls up on the outside of him and the only 4 horses that can do that are Honor Marie , Catching Freedom, Forever Young and Sierra Leone. Maybe Society Man with Franky following Fierceness the entire way because that is what every jockey will be doing, following the Fierceness outside trip. Am I wrong?
So 20 horses in the race, and you think you have it all figured out? 🤣
I'd like to see him win
Fierceness maybe wins by 5 lengths or Misses the BOARD!!!
@@tadvanallenMore likely to miss the board, he'll get bullied by inside speed, & sulk
@@tadvanallen why would you say that ? Lol
I’m taking
I'm betting across the board on Stronghold and Epic Ride.
Big prices both!
Why, you don't like $$???
@@marklewen9384 It's a crap shoot. I quit listening to the 'experts' long ago. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
@@joe56474 most "experts" aren't...I'm a 35 yr pro handicapper who does phenomenally well...I don't need to "sell" my picks. And 90 pct of the time,it's NOT a crapshoot. The best horses hit the board...
FYI for sure
Fierceness and Just a Touch
Godspeed!
I riding with Jerry Bailey with: a,ice cold exacta with that coffee hold the Irish cream,!😅
Society man looks like the winner much faster horse than fearless should win this race easily
The trashcan will come in handy for all those winning tickets.
Yall do know that your listing Bail us out as # 2 horse right ?
Mystic Dan is actually the horse running...lol
Yes that was a typo, apologies
Had him big that derby.
Nice!
What about Honor Marie????
late runners will most likely hit the exotics, mostly in the tri and super.
Don’t forget one thing , there has never been a horse breaking from the 17 post win the Kentucky Derby.
Fiercness is in post 16
Team Fierceness wire to wire...I should hustle the mgm sportsbook
😂😂😂😂
@@justsomeone9267 Luis Saez was suspended for 15 racing days after the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission determined that his ride aboard Maximum Security interfered with other riders in the Kentucky Derby.
@@justsomeone9267 never laid down anyone's bet was halfway to nowhere while everyone was transfixed on the race
Horses get longer vacations between races
I did call the jockey bumping 2 minutes before the race in Derby chat
Don't underestimate Track Phantom
Lucas, is fairly good! In May.
He's won a few Derbies :)
He has the BEST horses in this race, who BY FAR, ran the best prep last time 4 wide...he should be co favored
Mystik Dan with softening conditions at 20 to 1
Why should he beat just steel who DESTROYED him last out...and was wide to boot.
Just FYI and Sierra Leone.
Should be a nice paying double on two very logical horses.
The long shot is west Saratoga these people is over looking this horse he can run and he change gears at any time I think he can be the triple crown winner he can go two turns and 1 m and a half.
West saratoga runs 2nd to last, stronghold ran 2nd to the best horse besos
I wouldn't say it's all over if he gets out fast which he will do, in 3rd around first turn
The 3 horse isn't Bail Us Out and Encino is scratched.
Correct
I'm surprised they're not taking about Jockeys that's important
Derby day: Question, pancakes or waffles? Pigs in a blanket or chicken strips and waffles oh ya my $$$ is on Just a Touch and Sierra Leone
Forever young will win, as far as you can fling a stone.
Why is everybody ignoring Mystic Dan 97 speed rating outs him in the thick of it
The Best Horse On His Day Will Always Out Jump The Others And Go To The Lead...
Let's see what happens!
#1 20-1 book it
I love forever you but Japanese horse I put it in the traffic there or an exacta maybe
Sheets players might see fierceness a favorite and play him to bounce but all these reads in terms of patterns are percentage reads. I’d say he’s 25% to repeat, 25% to go forward, and 50% to go backward.”
The Pletch will have him ready.
Power squeeze, lemon muffin, just fyi, n Tyler galfalones horse
Would be surprised but you''ll get paid
Tripple Crown
Race's need to
Have a limit of
12 horses!
Half don't belong,
and trainers just
want to run them
Just to see how they do; for
Shits and giggles.
I'm going 2 put Jerry on a horse if I were his agent. Lol. That's track phantom. Now Jerry breaks running sees the inside speeds dornoch just a touch t.o.password and whom ever else on inside let's the outside speed fierceness use his horse alittle let's him pass him Jerry tucks in 4th or 5th. Around the final turn makes his move passing the tiring speed hopes fierceness comes back just alittle and then hold off forego a la sierra leone. Simple. I don't put Jerry on t.p.cause I'm a t.p. fan but I do handicap and I want 2 put Jerry on the winner. That's how I c it. If t.p. comes in 10th so be it. But if it comes exactly as I say it. U owe me a call. Lol
We'll see how it plays out
@@ptfornataleok
They don't know anymore than you and I . Same comments that are on every Derby pick websites. It's all blah blah blah- I can read the Racing Form as well as them--same old comments on every website. It's my money-I'll bet my picks with it. No excuses if I lose all the money if I win -but I can read the form like all the regular bettors do.
They know more than I do actually
Instead of Mystic Dan the list shows Bail Him Out as #3.
Is mystic out ?
ah funny. A typo
Just a touch
Godspeed!
Domestic product is definitely a scare..
15-2-4-17-8
15 is too slow is all I'm hearing. But I hope we get paid 15 2
Thanks for commenting Rodney