yes I saw this first from Ben cowen. It's very interesting but last cycle it was not really on the dot. There was probably 1 or 2 months lag. I mean the top already happened before the cross. So we gotta be careful to take it to the bank.
Very interesting, Camel Finance on YT was talking about hyper waves the other day. It's a specific type of blow-off top discovered by Taylor Jenks. It seems like the S&P might be in a hyper wave and if so, it is expected to top around August 2025. For the record, MSTR underwent a hyperwave this cycle in 2024. A hyper wave has 7 distinct phases, and phases 2-4 should each take 1/2 the time as the previous phase and result in the same percentage gain. This would send bitcoin to just over 400k by August. Thought I'd share since this gives some interesting confluence with his work. Cheers!
Nice 😉👍, for me i think that that data, with also timeline data and Pi cycle top indicator is a more overall accurate indicator, and for me the next ATH could be more about 20 October 25 approximately
Very interesting! Mathematically speaking it makes sense, assuming we have cycles of similar duration (~200 weeks). In my analysis, the cycle length is closer to 204 weeks, so I always use a 204 week SMA. I place the 2025 top just around October 6th.
@@randycochones5965 The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a technical analysis tool used to predict potential peaks in Bitcoin's price cycles. It uses two key moving averages: 1. 111 Day Moving Average (111DMA): Captures Bitcoin's short-term price. 2. 350-Day Moving Average (350DMA) multiplied by 2, Provides a broader historical perspective. The indicator signals a potential market top when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2. Historically, this crossover has often coincided with Bitcoin's price peaks. Much easier to see the actual graph, maybe watch a video on it.
Institutional adoption and a bitcoin strategic reserve are poised to be game changers. In what ways? Nobody knows for sure. This is new territory with no precedent to point to. But thanks for the analysis. We will keep that in mind.
retail wont take the price to what everyone hopes for unless there is more institutional buying or governments buying or more large corporations buying. id be willing to bet that if that actually does happen, you get the 240ish top like what Colin has shown. Otherwise another 2021 repeat of cycle top deminishing returns.
if you watch closely at the logarithmic scale, the top and bottom become more and more smaller from the precedent on the wma, so if the pattern is to follow, then the top should be around 165k and the next bottom around 32k which would make a lot of sense
Excellent. However my analysis is that we will crab our way to a top. Also it will be around 144k$. Remmeber diminishing % returns are like a law now. I wouldn't hold past 140k. Simply too risky. It's also always good to cut your greed
Intresting. 200 weeks are closely 4 years. It is like saying when the past 4 years average price gets equal to the previous top price we reached the point of top stretching the average ... intresting. Did you use sma or ema?
Always felt the last cycle did not reach its natural top (~100k) due to the FTX crash and therefore maybe all of these charts and models aren't really 100% useful for this cycle. Therefore, I believe the cycle peak will be around October/November 25 at around 250k. Interesting Video though👍
Considering that in post-halfing years the top usually occurs in Q3-early Q4; it looks to be another factor fulfilling the cycle role :) ETFs just started investing. In this cycle, ETFs bring the money not the QE. You can imagine what will happen when both are on the playground in the same time. The btc reserver thing is for the next cycle around at the end of 2027, thats my bet
Thank you for the video, very interesting analysis. I might be mistaken, but I don't think you made it clear that you are viewing the chart in log scale.
I guess everyone in the game needs to know..from 140k in Q1 top, to a double top and/or a squeeze to ±250k q3/4 of 2025..I guess time will tell🤷♂️😊..thanks for the extra info
You can't expect everyone to have the same life situation as you: Everyone has different investing goals, amount of free capital, income source (or not), the need for money (or not), life emergencies, risk tolerance, not to mention many other factors. TL;DR: Your investing situation is not everyone else's
What if you sold at $60K and bought back 3x as much at $20K in the previous cycle? You don't need to time the exact top and bottom. You would triple your BTC holdings.
I think he used a log chart (bottom right corner of the tradingview chart). I might be mistaken but I didn't hear him make this clear in his video. I was inclined to view the timeline in log and it looks similar to his chart.
Lmao. You can't be serious, governments don't fomo into anything and if they do decide to buy it will be after they drive the price down as low as they can.
I feel Institutional adoption has screwed up every chart we could use. We really have no good indication now. I believe we will go higher than expected
Every cycle there is some new catalyst for adoption. It hasn't messed up the charts yet. It just scales up with the increased market cap. Everything gets bigger exponentially as BTC grows.
hey Colin,What are you feeling about EOS anymore? I bought a bunch when it first entered the market and just held it for years. You think we will get any kind of pump this cycle or just flatline and wither away? lol
Bruh. Why would anyone be coming to buy your dead coin? There are 10000x as many coins as when EOS was popular, 99.9% of altcoins will never pump again.
@@am7373 bruh bruh bruh, eat ass, the question was for colin because he had bought back into eos a year or two ago, just wanted his opinion bruh bruh bruh
That was more like 4 years ago, when I briefly bought back into EOS. But if you followed me closely, you'll also know that shortly thereafter I sold it and never looked back. I haven't touched EOS for many years now and have zero regrets about leaving it alone. There are too many new coins to be stuck on EOS, an ancient coin that was messed up by blockstream's bait-and-switch. Time to move on imo
and before all of that, stop eating glue ( wheat and root vegetables ) and pus (milk foods and filthy sick mamals) and inflamatory foods ( fried or grilled)...
colloidal can worsen an irritation already present (there are tiny particles of metal in it), so i would be very careful with it, but ok for a mouthwash)
You have NO IDE if its in or not. No body knows when there will be more sellers than buyers and for what reasons. You might have a feeling and GUESS it’s not in.
I saw this on Twitter but I didn't understood (I didn't spend much time thinking about it because there's always a lot of other news). The explanation of the video is simple and easy to understand. Thanks. This is really a very interesting observation. I have already noticed that MA200T is interesting because BTC price ie rarely touches it. It is the best price to buy. And the crossing of 2xMA200T with MA50T is also interesting. In 2019 crossing indicated exact middle of bear market, and in 2021 indicated the first top of the bull market
haha #1 fan award goes to you. Keep reminding me so I don't forget. I want to release it during the next major run up, after sentiment is clearly ramping up.
Many thanks for sharing your theories! It's interesting to hear your thought process and logic behind it!
Aligns so well with the Lunar and solar eclipses this year. Feb an Aug
Very interesting! I did the same thing on my charts and got a Dec 5th 2025 date for final top. I guess it depends on how you draw the SMA
yes I saw this first from Ben cowen. It's very interesting but last cycle it was not really on the dot. There was probably 1 or 2 months lag. I mean the top already happened before the cross. So we gotta be careful to take it to the bank.
Ben is a fool why do you watch that creep Jesus Christ
Thank you
Great Colin! 👍 Get well soon 💪
HEY 👋 COLIN.. GET WELL SOON ❤
Thanks Colin, Supper, this is exactly what we need coming towards the top of the bull run
Very much appreciated! Greetings from the Netherlands
I concur. Possibly til Nov 2025 but can certainly top earlier
Nice analysis. Thanks.
Very interesting, Camel Finance on YT was talking about hyper waves the other day. It's a specific type of blow-off top discovered by Taylor Jenks. It seems like the S&P might be in a hyper wave and if so, it is expected to top around August 2025. For the record, MSTR underwent a hyperwave this cycle in 2024. A hyper wave has 7 distinct phases, and phases 2-4 should each take 1/2 the time as the previous phase and result in the same percentage gain. This would send bitcoin to just over 400k by August. Thought I'd share since this gives some interesting confluence with his work. Cheers!
Nice 😉👍, for me i think that that data, with also timeline data and Pi cycle top indicator is a more overall accurate indicator, and for me the next ATH could be more about 20 October 25 approximately
Brilliant, thank you Colin.
I follow your CBBI for years
Very interesting! Mathematically speaking it makes sense, assuming we have cycles of similar duration (~200 weeks). In my analysis, the cycle length is closer to 204 weeks, so I always use a 204 week SMA. I place the 2025 top just around October 6th.
Thanks for sharing.
Merci beaucoup from Canada! August is the lowest gain for BTC from 2009 to 2024 at an average of -.07%, so yes, something to keep in mind.
i agree with your synopsis.
When the pi cycle top indicator flashes just as it has every other top. Problem solved.
or just check the Pi cycle indicator which nails the top AND bottom of the market
It is indeed accurate. Good to cross check things too
how does it work?
@@randycochones5965 The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a technical analysis tool used to predict potential peaks in Bitcoin's price cycles. It uses two key moving averages:
1. 111 Day Moving Average (111DMA): Captures Bitcoin's short-term price.
2. 350-Day Moving Average (350DMA) multiplied by 2, Provides a broader historical perspective.
The indicator signals a potential market top when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2.
Historically, this crossover has often coincided with Bitcoin's price peaks.
Much easier to see the actual graph, maybe watch a video on it.
wow that's amazing! thx bro
Thanks for the information Bro 😀🙏👊
That fits with a lot of others saying 3rd qtr 2025 will be the top
starts at 2:17
when 7 minutes is too long 😂
Playback Speed at 1.25 is better
@@eqgold1719 2x is even better! Still wasted 1minute tho!
@@ColinTalksCryptoits absolutely Perfect Colin 💪
Institutional adoption and a bitcoin strategic reserve are poised to be game changers. In what ways? Nobody knows for sure. This is new territory with no precedent to point to. But thanks for the analysis. We will keep that in mind.
retail wont take the price to what everyone hopes for unless there is more institutional buying or governments buying or more large corporations buying. id be willing to bet that if that actually does happen, you get the 240ish top like what Colin has shown. Otherwise another 2021 repeat of cycle top deminishing returns.
if you watch closely at the logarithmic scale, the top and bottom become more and more smaller from the precedent on the wma, so if the pattern is to follow, then the top should be around 165k and the next bottom around 32k which would make a lot of sense
always nice predicts from you. you are un believable
Very interesting
Thanks!
Excellent. However my analysis is that we will crab our way to a top. Also it will be around 144k$. Remmeber diminishing % returns are like a law now.
I wouldn't hold past 140k. Simply too risky. It's also always good to cut your greed
My prediction is 138k 😂
We live in a simulation 😂😂. Thanks Colin. You’re the best.
Intresting. 200 weeks are closely 4 years. It is like saying when the past 4 years average price gets equal to the previous top price we reached the point of top stretching the average ... intresting. Did you use sma or ema?
Yes, interesting. Basically further proving the 4 year cycle. It's 200 week SMA.
Thanks man!
Always felt the last cycle did not reach its natural top (~100k) due to the FTX crash and therefore maybe all of these charts and models aren't really 100% useful for this cycle. Therefore, I believe the cycle peak will be around October/November 25 at around 250k. Interesting Video though👍
I agree about the stunted previous bull run. However, this is a TIMING approach, and so it says nothing about the price that could be reached.
@ColinTalksCrypto Sure but wouldn't the 200 ema would've been different, too?
Colin,are you going to hold through sunmer months?Its not the best idea usually
Undecided
Would be interesting see this theory against the SPY
A guy that follows cycles, is calling for a mayor top in August 2025 as well. Interesting
Considering that in post-halfing years the top usually occurs in Q3-early Q4; it looks to be another factor fulfilling the cycle role :)
ETFs just started investing. In this cycle, ETFs bring the money not the QE. You can imagine what will happen when both are on the playground in the same time. The btc reserver thing is for the next cycle around at the end of 2027, thats my bet
Thank you for the video, very interesting analysis. I might be mistaken, but I don't think you made it clear that you are viewing the chart in log scale.
I mean... you are looking at the chart for the whole video and the y-axis isn't linear.
I guess everyone in the game needs to know..from 140k in Q1 top, to a double top and/or a squeeze to ±250k q3/4 of 2025..I guess time will tell🤷♂️😊..thanks for the extra info
$150k - $220k.
Maybe $200k top
Interesting. What about eth and altcoins, is there is any trends?
All follows bitcoin
^ correct
why is everyone trying to time the top ,i can understand if you hold alts,but bitcoin should be long term
You can't expect everyone to have the same life situation as you: Everyone has different investing goals, amount of free capital, income source (or not), the need for money (or not), life emergencies, risk tolerance, not to mention many other factors.
TL;DR: Your investing situation is not everyone else's
What if you sold at $60K and bought back 3x as much at $20K in the previous cycle? You don't need to time the exact top and bottom. You would triple your BTC holdings.
I want to know what it will crash to so i can buy into it cheapest.
This is not on LBRY Colin!! 😟
Sorry, let me get my recent videos up on there
@ColinTalksCrypto Thanks! 🙏ps. I thought LBRY used to have an automated upload for content posted in UA-cam?
@@barkingbandicoot It did, which was really nice. But then they made an announcement that UA-cam removed their ability or right to do so.
How do i view that style chart on trading view or we bull
I think he used a log chart (bottom right corner of the tradingview chart). I might be mistaken but I didn't hear him make this clear in his video. I was inclined to view the timeline in log and it looks similar to his chart.
Very good info.. Great observation and analysis by you sir. Can you do the same for solana and eth?
The pre cycles = no ETF’s, no government FOMO.
Lmao. You can't be serious, governments don't fomo into anything and if they do decide to buy it will be after they drive the price down as low as they can.
I feel Institutional adoption has screwed up every chart we could use. We really have no good indication now. I believe we will go higher than expected
Every cycle there is some new catalyst for adoption. It hasn't messed up the charts yet. It just scales up with the increased market cap. Everything gets bigger exponentially as BTC grows.
hey Colin,What are you feeling about EOS anymore? I bought a bunch when it first entered the market and just held it for years. You think we will get any kind of pump this cycle or just flatline and wither away? lol
Bruh. Why would anyone be coming to buy your dead coin? There are 10000x as many coins as when EOS was popular, 99.9% of altcoins will never pump again.
@@am7373 bruh bruh bruh, eat ass, the question was for colin because he had bought back into eos a year or two ago, just wanted his opinion bruh bruh bruh
That was more like 4 years ago, when I briefly bought back into EOS. But if you followed me closely, you'll also know that shortly thereafter I sold it and never looked back. I haven't touched EOS for many years now and have zero regrets about leaving it alone. There are too many new coins to be stuck on EOS, an ancient coin that was messed up by blockstream's bait-and-switch. Time to move on imo
$210k top,give or take 2k
Cheers
What about eth?
There is a thesis that that graph will flip, and the top it shows will be the new bottom
Dreamers gonna dream. Maybe what you say will be true in 10 years.
it's a lagging indicator.
Doesn't seem that way to me. Maybe just on one peak. But you can't say that about them all.
The only thing this doesn't take into account is institutional adoption. So this is actually a conservative view
$200K to $215K is my guess for BTC top!
Nah, 20K to 60K was a 3x. Expect nothing more than a 2.5x from 60K. So, 120-130K. That is all.
2021 was a stunted, double top. I wouldn't rule out more than $120k-$130k.
@@trappedcat3615 20 to 68k. 140k my top.
😀
Top 135k
Ben Cowen is crypto analyst GOAT 😂
I personally believe he is a cyborg. Half machine, half man.
Vit C, D, zinc… 👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽 gargle with colloidal silver 4 times a day
Vitamin D3 + K2 💁♂️
and before all of that, stop eating glue ( wheat and root vegetables ) and pus (milk foods and filthy sick mamals) and inflamatory foods ( fried or grilled)...
colloidal can worsen an irritation already present (there are tiny particles of metal in it), so i would be very careful with it, but ok for a mouthwash)
Looks like diminishing returns.. The up moves get smaller and smaller and looks like the top could be in already???
The BTC top is almost certainly not in already.
You have NO IDE if its in or not. No body knows when there will be more sellers than buyers and for what reasons. You might have a feeling and GUESS it’s not in.
there is a lot to factor in, seeing trump has taken over the helm.
now we stable at 105k, when the trump make the promise to sbf?
I saw this on Twitter but I didn't understood (I didn't spend much time thinking about it because there's always a lot of other news). The explanation of the video is simple and easy to understand. Thanks. This is really a very interesting observation.
I have already noticed that MA200T is interesting because BTC price ie rarely touches it. It is the best price to buy.
And the crossing of 2xMA200T with MA50T is also interesting. In 2019 crossing indicated exact middle of bear market, and in 2021 indicated the first top of the bull market
NO EXCUSES, we want a rap video!!!
haha #1 fan award goes to you. Keep reminding me so I don't forget. I want to release it during the next major run up, after sentiment is clearly ramping up.
'sell in may (or in april) and go away'
Hey get well Col. Your nuples will point you in the right direction
Thanks. They always guide me right. hahah
First!
Wtf happened to you?
What do you mean?
@ you disappeared for a while. Glad to see you back. Great video
@@crazygreekfreak7219 I am active daily on X. Follow me there and you'll see I didn't go anywhere. Cheers
Get out of cryptos now. It is going down
Greetings from Greenland! Cannot wait to be part of USA!🇺🇸
That's cool to hear. Do you feel that most other people from Greenland share your opinion about joining the US? Cheers
@ Yes,i do brother. Everybody here is fed up with left liberal dei european union policies.
@@AlemHrasnica Great to hear! Soon, you and I may be from the same country. :)
many thanks 😊
Thanks!