U.S. Car Market to Shrink, Thanks to Demographics - Autoline Exclusives
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- Опубліковано 7 лют 2025
- Population growth in the U.S. has slowed dramatically. And it's getting older. Young people are getting their driver's license later, or just using Uber. That's why Mark Gottfredson, a partner at Bain & Company, says annual U.S. new vehicle sales could drop to 14 million as soon as 2030. Is anyone preparing for this?
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I would say 50% of my friends between the ages of 30 to 50 have not or do not want children in the future. They’re just too expensive in today’s world.
People throw 10-15K on Amazon/Temu/Shein every year without thinking about it. Wrong priorities.
That may be true for some, but data shows consistently that as people gain affluence and education, family sizes decline, not the other way around.
@@logikgr It's not just money, it's not fun having children, high expectations for schools, activities makes it as hard as working 2 jobs ... And I don't want to work my regular 40 hours to be honest not pickup another 40
I’m 31 with no children. Of my 3 sisters, all over 21, only 1 has a child and I don’t expect any of them to suddenly have multiple kids
FOMO
Excellent video and super analysis. Thank you.
Population decline is an irreversible trend the world over, and only nations with a steady flow of immigrants are growing, for now. This will present challenges to the entire economic model that the world has operated under for centuries. The automobile industry might be the canary in the coal mine, but I doubt it will wake people up to the inevitable facts and challenges before us.
One thing that wasn't touched on and I'm not sure you guys have ever delved into it and that's the number of people who are upside down on their new car payments.
The value of a car is transportation. If you bought a car with the idea of reselling it, you failed to comprehend that cars are not an investment.
@CSHarvey so people defaulting on their car loans in large numbers is not an issue?
I have two married sons. Neither is intending to have children. Fortunately both of them are car guys like me. All of us are beating the national average of 1.2 cars per driver! But it should be noted that these population trends will affect all industries, not just cars. If migration is stopped as some are trying to do, the problem only gets worse for manufacturing. Removal of migrants brings the slow down just that much quicker.
Migration isn't a solution though because it just ignores all sorts of reasons people d9nt have birth rates. And one way or another the endless flows of migrants will stop as either their demographic growth slows or it gets blocked. Even if it takes decades it will stop one day. So companies need to start thinking about a world without a constant growth in population.
I don't mind buying a new 20k car, but everything is around is 30k!
Average new car is $45,000. So much money. Always cheaper to buy a late model used anyway.
$10,000 in 1995 is the equivalent of $21,000 today. You couldn’t buy a new car for 10k then or 21k today… it’s all relevant
buy a Nissan Versa manual!
Real estate will feel the impact also. It would be interesting to know how much is owned by non citizens and also how much is occupied by non citizens in the US. Very thorough provoking show.
More telling is how much real estate is owned by corporations or individuals that rent them out, removing them from the sales market. People expect boomers passing will flood the housing market, the reality is that housing is being bought up by corporations and rented out at inflated rates.
There's no need to look for foreign boogeyman when we have our own domestic supply.
That's was a great talk and I agree with everything the guest said and have been saying these things for years. After retirement I worked for a big box store and was amazed at the 20 somethings that did not drive or own a car. Couple that up with autonomous vehicles and that's going to be a huge market change.
~Cheers
i enjoyed this video Mark has done his home work on this topic .i have learned a lot today thank you.
Focus needs to be on quality of life not quantity of life for cheap labor for corporations and governments.
I like his guy
Slow delivery that everybody can understand
I pedict a car company will emerge that will listen to what its customers want. It will take over the entire market. We are in an era of maximum stupidity currently.
Yes and here comes China. Just like the 70's and Japan. A great car at 20K and Americans will buy them no questions asked where they come from.
They never mentioned the ridiculously high average new car purchase price in the US....nearly $50,000. How many younger folks, even in a potentially lucrative career, are going to happily take on that sort of debt?
I believe the biggest single determinator on future sales of cars will be Robo taxis from different manufacturers. This will determine how many cars per household, and whether a household actually needs any cars at all.
Peter Zeihan offers a useful and entertaining perspective on global demographic impacts. Data on China is very difficult to interpret in terms of reliability.
PZ is a propagandist! US is a lot worse than S Korea if you only look at Whites, blacks, and Asian Americans.
He is dumb. I felt like I liked his analysis early on. But as I watched more of his videos, turns out he cherry picks data and ignores data that don't validate his points.
Peter Zeihan is good on demographics and resources. Terrible on cultural changes that effect consumer choices. Personal vehicles are very cultural in choice.
An Italian will think a FIAT 500 Abarth or Panda is great for Italy. The Italians are correct . Driving a Dodge Hellcat as a personal vehicle in Italy 🇮🇹 is really kind of stupid after having been to Italy.
你相信Peter只能说明1.你没有多渠道收集信息的能力。2.你已经被成功洗脑了。治疗的唯一方法是自己去中国看看。
@25:25 The population is aging, the cars are aging, partly because cars like the *Corvair* can't be sold anymore and
partly because EVs last for _years_ longer (by not being built and maintained by _watchmakers._ )
I live on a cul de sac with twenty large colonial houses. There’s 15 dogs and nine children. I am the last of nine children.
I love the spin that we were "blessed" with records amounts of illegal immigration. No discussion on the impact on US citizen wages, used car/housing price inflation or demand on social services. Hey, it marginally helped the new car industry, so it's great to open the borders.
Motivational reasoning is a powerful thing. Your knee jerk reaction to the data, since it doesn’t fit how you want to see the world, is, sadly.
Not surprising
Those illegal immigrants do the dirty work Americans don't want to do and do the work for very low wage. Kick them out and the price of food will increase, the cost of building new houses and commercial buildings will increase, the cost of hotels will increase, and the cost of childcare will increase.
Live and learn. Hopefully you'll learn....
us wages are at all time highs. stop being a bum
Interesting. My reply that kicking out illegal workers will make food, housing, hotels and childcare more expensive got buried.
What happens when you have highly selective immigration is that you are pulling top/above average skilled people from other countries. Most of these people easily outshine the average US worker, this is why US workers stagnate in the middle where growth is slower and lower.
Illegal immigrants come to fill the bottom tier jobs that keep life affordable to middle America.
The average American worker needs to do better, plain and simple.
@22:00 _The canary in the coal mine_ is lying on the bottom of the cage and getting covered in [expletive].
We're stuck in a situation that people aren't *_car nuts_* anymore. Just look at *Pep Boys* customer demographics.
Thats why i shake my head about whats going on now,because its only the first generation immigrants having kids and their kids, by the time the third gen comes around they dont want kids. Dont take my word ask the u.s military how recruiting been going for the last 17 years🤔
This is what happens when resources get locked out by very few individuals. Every one else's horizon disappears until you find yourself in the middle of nowhere and hopeless.
I wonder if this is an intended or unintended consequence of Trump and Musk?
@8:58 So *Immigration* has been *_good_* for the *US.* (I wonder if *Drumpf* knows that...)
Oh brother here's 50 cents get a clue, cars are way too expensive. Hello these fellows are so far in the industry they don't have a clue. IF PRICES WERE LESS AND AFFORDABLE THE CAR MARKET WOULD SOAR SALES WOULD GO THROUGH THE ROOF THERE'S A LOT OF PENT-UP DEMAND STILL!
It's interesting and kind of brutal how economics and mother nature will create population decline automatically.
Other than population demographics technological advances also point to reduced car sales. For a start ICE cars are lasting longer and because of their design simplicity, EVs will last even longer, probably over 5 years longer. If robo taxis live up to their potential then public transport will be so cheap the 2 car family will end up being one. Plus a car is not the only form of transport. E bikes and scooters are much cheaper alternatives and an another financial reason to become a one car one E bike family.
They are making cars with cheaper materials amd stedily increasing the prices higher. People cant afford a car . These automakers have so many recallsas we speak. They want to much money for the cars. All they have to do is lower the prices and intetest rates also the mothly terms to own it
Demographics shape everything.
All the people celebrating having cars of kids r just weird as hell 😭😭same ppl gonna go talk down capitalism and consumerism all day
Please recognize the difference in Illegal migration and LEGAL immigration , the USA is not stopping LEGAL immigration. The EU has embraced socialism and is being overcome by migrates from the Eastern bloc and middle East
Legal immigration, you mean the 800k Venezuelans, Cubans, etc who were here legally, but Trump revoked their visa anyway?
The US has stopped ALL IMMIGRATION
Period
LEGAL immigration has been a blessing. Illegal immigration has had a huge cost to every citizen.
@@jameswoffinden9215 James, bob, Mike, Jason, Fred. Why is there always one of you in the comment section?
Y’all can’t hear immigrant without hearing illegal. It’s like something so off, you have to share your 2 cents.
Do you sneeze the word illegal?
@@scotthartman9834 It's a standard thing for old, scared white people. Most of them have never had interaction with that population either.
Meanwhile handwringing about illegal immigrants costs undoes their legitimate contributions to our economy. As usual, cutting off your own nose to spite your faces.
@@scotthartman9834 you are the reason Trump won.
Enjoy picking your own fruits and vegetables in 100F heat and 90% humidity.
It doesn't matter if the market shrinks due to demographics.
True, but they're just saying that the companies should be planning for that decrease in demand.
@@SueC56 Ok, I didn't even watch the video yet.
It's so common for people to make the completely baseless claim that "population decrease of any kind is a catastrophe" and that "we must make all kinds of drastic measures like replacing our population with net drains on the economy with massive criminality because of it, without considering if we're just creating more problems with our 'cure' for very slightly decreasing population."
We were much better of with the big 3....all these garbage companies,trying to get in,on the automobile scam.
Heads out from under the sand, boys. Tesla is likely to introduce a more affordable EV early this year and, apparently, has capacity to build a million units per year on existing assembly lines. Tesla owners have zero issue with charging on long trips. Tesla is likely to take an additional 1M share of the US new car market.
There's a good chance that Tesla will complete full self-driving this year and start building robotaxis. You should have Tony Seba (Stanford) on you show and let him explain what affordable robotaxi rides is likely to do to car sales/ownership.
The tiger is sneaking up behind you as you ignore the change coming.
no one cares. it's still a tesla with poor quality control.
@@ashishpatel350
It's too bad that you've picked information sources that misinform you. Tesla quality is extremely high. Yes, the first EVs produced had some minor problems but that was almost 15 years ago.
@@bobwallace9753The TUV says otherwise for 3 year old cars and Tesla still can’t manufacture a proper suspension. Stop repeating the lies of the Stan’s that says Tesla has any idea how to reliably manufacture quality. One more fail from $andy Munro.
@@bobbbobb4663
Sad troll. You've built quite the reputation.
It will be interesting to check in on this in a year.
@22:58 😂
A decline in population is a good thing. Focus needs to be on quality of life not quantity of life.
Population needs to be in balance with jobs, resources, nature and the environment. Having a bigger population in any country than the country can support makes no sense. Access to food, water, shelter, energy and jobs should guide population levels. The worlds population is still expected to add another billion people to feed, clothe and produce pollution. Humans are crowding out all other species of plants and animals. Education and birth control are key to reducing poverty and hunger. Having a child that you can not provide for yourself is cruel and irresponsible. We need solutions not just sympathy. Endless population growth is not sustainable on a finite planet. Every country needs to "TRY" to be more self sufficient. When there are not enough resources to sustain a population something has to give. Countries need to focus on quality of life for their citizens and not just quantity of life for cheap labor. Why import fossil fuels when wind and solar energy can be produced locally and solar energy can power electric vehicles. We need solutions not just sympathy.
Migration is not the answer; most of these additions to the population aren't buying new cars. And contrary to the disposition of cars, more cars are being 'totaled' for lesser damage than historically because of the complexity of repair. There are a lot of holes in this explanation in this discussion. And the 'gorilla' in the room is the exponential rise in new vehicles prices. And the increase in total U.S. population doesn't hold much water either, as the SAAR was, for quite a while 15 to 16 million per year back when the population was closer to 250 million.
"totaled" yes, but that is not the same as scrapped. The guy didn't mention anything about insurance, but did specify cars that are physically cubed. If you look you will find cars that have a salvaged title being offered for sale.
In California the DMV has an active program to eliminate 70 and older drivers from the driver license pool. That will affect the demographics of the the driving population. People are living longer but permitted to drive less, and then do not buy cars either.
? The CA DMV doesn’t even require seniors to take a test. Just eye tests
You guys are insufferable.
Robotaxis will increase vehicle utilization, which will drive down the number of private vehicles needed. For every robotaxi on the road, effectively 5 private vehicles become redundant. While YOU might not need or want to use a robotaxi now, younger generations are making an economic choice between owning a hole in the driveway to theow money in or sunscribing to reliable regional transportation.
I showed this video to my friend and now her boyfriend wants to try it too. Laughter and fun guaranteed🍓