13,983,816 and the Lottery - Numberphile
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- Опубліковано 27 бер 2012
- The chance of picking the six winning numbers from the 49 balls in the UK National Lottery is one in 13,983,816 - on the other hand, the odds of selecting no balls???
More links & stuff in full description below ↓↓↓
Number-loving physicist James Clewett attempts to "pick some winners"! :)
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One of the beauties of watching these videos is the knowledge that thousands of mathematical equations and formulae have to work in order for us to see them, and we do. Maths succeeds in letting us see these videos about it. It's a further emphasis of how wonderful and important the world of numbers is to all of us every day.
I'm so happy I found you guys. Finally some one who enjoys math and numbers as much as I do. ;)
Love your video! Thanks for taking the time and the advice!
you did a great job actually answering his question, and I really like how you didn't use a basic and trivial insult as a response to his question
Pakai ilmu prediksi lotry.dari paranormal.ok?.
I love your videos! Passionate, interesting, simplistic and very entertaining :D
Hi
Huzzah!!! A numberphile video i can actually follow!!!
This made me happy to watch the video and your technique or mathnique. Thank you so much
I'm choosing this guy to pick my next lottery numbers!
I live in germany, just got that video in my page and hopefully its a sign and ill pick those numbers, wish me luck
TO THOSE CLAIMING IT'S FAKE: Yes, it is.
They first shot the video of him picking numbers at random. Then they shot a video of him choosing those numbers as his picks. You are shown these two shots in reverse order.
If that's what you're focused on, however, then you're not focusing on the right thing...
Viktor Nowe none :| But lightning and asteroids are rare
Manabender oops sorry wrong comment
+Der,ek Conway
He was just making a joke dude
+Manabender no, they did 13,983,816 takes duh
As a Physics graduate from Nottingham that lecture hall brings back memories!!!!
Great story
I like how you put a period after the question and a question mark after the statement.
After looking at how the lottery numbers here in Aus are distributed over a 30 year period I was really surprised to see that firstly, on each individual draw numbers of similar value tend to group together. Next, by looking at how many times each number had been drawn over time, there seemed to be a relatively even probability regardless of which number it was and not a Gaussian based distribution as I expected. It's really a fascinating way to get into numbers, and this video helps even more!
Help plz
I had briefly started to investigate the idea of analyzing lottery results to try to find patterns. My theory was that the machines(or their operating procedures) might be flawed, and give some numbers a greater or lesser chance of showing up. Such a flaw should be identifiable from a large set of historical results, and using it to guide number selection should vastly improve your odds.
But given where the odds start, vastly improving them is still a tiny chance of winning.
Key to lotto: The numbers are not random
@@animeactivated Why would they not be random? They make more money this way.
I so happy i found you guy
It also comes down to the fact that the method of using the balls to choose the winners still being used is simply due to the randomness. We see the same number appearing and think well it cant really be random then can it, but if the same number appears often and in a short time it actually proves it is random. If we chose to switch it to a computerized system it would only be simulating randomness and a real pattern would appear it may be hard to find but it could be used to cheat.
I would like to see more gambling number videos, specifically about people who have historically taken advantage of biases in roulette wheels, but other casino stuff would also be welcome.
There are 13,983,816 possible sets of numbers that can be drawn for the lottery. One of these possible sets is going to turn up at random. No matter what number set you pick, the probability of that specific set being picked is 1 out of 13,983,816, since your set is one out of that number of possible random sets which might show up. An ordered set (such as 1,2,3,4,5,6) is still one possibility out of 13.983,816 numbers, so the probability for that set is equally likely compared to any other set.
I stand a better chance of hitting the lottery than being struck by lightening. I am not standing in a thunderstorm with a metal rod
D'Saint Yoder well if you did that, you’d be cheating, by enticing the lightning to strike the rod lol
"You said one out of 14 million yeah? Tell me this is it."
"If I tell you what happens, it won't happen"
what the hell this guy should play the lottery more often... he is amazingly accurate at picking a random ball
MORNING.................MORNING.............MORNING
Let This New Month Be The Beginning Of Blessings In Your Life By Joining Us To Boom As We've Received Today Lunchtime And Teatime Numbers Requested For
Don't Doubt ✊Just Message Us Now On WhatsApp To know How It Works And Become Great ✊✅💯
+27 64 059 1264.....+27 64 059 1264......+27 64 059 1264
Ik wtf?!
Is there any mathematical theory that suggests that someone with more extensive mathematical knowledge has a greater chance of winning?
@@AFFECTIngclips Yes. Look up renato gianella.
That was slight of hand
Once a given number has been drawn for the lottery, it's no less likely for that number to appear again, so if you pick the same number that was drawn last week, you can expect to have the exact same probability of winning as with any other number you could possibly pick.
Basically, the moral is that you can't change your probability of winning the lottery; No matter which set of numbers you pick, you'll have exactly the same probability of winning, due to the random nature of drawing a ball.
Exactly, this is what trips most lottery players up. They don't play number's that have previously been drawn. And the combination that sometimes comes out is a mix of previous drawn numbers and a new batch of numbers.
Thank u Bro, u are the Gift to the World, Stay Blessed, Thank u Universe ❤❤❤❤
Thanks, now I can convince my friend Josef to spend less than 1/8 of his paycheck on lotto.
the magic of editing
@Aquaified
He was filmed drawing the winning numbers first and afterwards was filmed "randomly" picking numbers for the sake of explaining winning odds.
You can do it either way as long as you're consistent.
This was the "order matters" approach. So there were 6! good orderings out of a possible 49*48*47*46*45*44 orderings.
The "order doesn't matter" approach says there's 1 good combination out of (49 6) possible combinations.
Either method results in the same calculation.
I forgot where I saw this but it was like "Trying to get rich by winning the lottery is like trying to commit suicide by flying on commercial airlines and hoping for a crash."
you are actually more likley to crash on a plane than to win the lotttery
Dreaming about what I'd with my lottery winnings and waiting for the weekend to watch football are the only things that give my life any meaning.
Damn that’s actually really sad
same.
I agree with that last statement.
People say that buying lottery tickets is just a tax on the poor and that you should just stop. Well, to a lot of people, buying a lottery ticket and being able to just dream and having that hope of winning, is actually a greater stress reliever than Zanex could ever give you because you have given yourself the ability to win, however small. Now of course don't go spending a lot, but a one or two dollar ticket can do wonders between buying it and the drawing.
It has the opposite effect to none on me. It just pisses me off to not win. There is no value in daydreams, actually negative value, devaluing, disrespect. Reality only not fantasy land! What actually happens in reality is the only thing that matters. Not attempted manipulation by trying to get you to be a citizen of imagination land. Actual Physical Reality ONLY.
"you can't win if you don't play"
true but virtually irrelevant.
"you can't LOSE if you don't play"
true and absolutely certain.
+charles ranalli Oooh I like that. I'm going to use that from now on.
what is "virtually irrelevant" supposed to mean exactly? sounds like you're just being dismissive to push your own opinion
Well you'll never never know, if you never have a go...
I disagree. True and completely relevant. Improbable, but relevant.
Sure I can know if I don't have a go. I just take note of the numbers I would have picked and I have a 43% chance of sighing in relief when I look up the draw. Probably better than that.
Our lottery rewards a payout if you get 3 out of 6 for $5 from a $1 dollar investment. 1 in 185 odds. If you match one and match the "Powerball" 1:74 you get $2 back. Match only the Powerball, you get your dollar back 1:49 odds
Lotteries are taxes on the innumerate.
I like watching these to verify I still know how to do these calculations
Without denying its usefulness (of course!) I have often wondered many things about probability, like:
Can we demonstrate that any process is *actually* random as opposed to a process that "tends toward" random?
Is there a difference between a random process and a process whose mechanism is unknown, especially over a short run or a single instance?
Etc...
We thought about this the other week in our maths class, this was a good video, only thing you missed out is the probability of winning any money (getting 3 numbers or more) :( to find that would be more complicated but still doable
Much appreciated
I've only gotten 3/6 numbers right when choosing my own numbers a couple times now and I've only been playing a few months.
All the people thinking this this took X amount of takes, think. It was done in one take, the lottery ticket was filled in afterwards. I actually hate myself for commenting, but it's a no brainer.
He actually picked the balls out first, acted like they were the ones he wanted, and filmed the first part of the video afterwards.
Holy Frick! you have to be soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo freaken lucky to pick out the 6 numbers
The odds are so high, your marker ran out of ink when writing the number.
You assume every segment of the video was recorded in the order you watched them?
Why do teachers always say calculators are cheating..?
"Yeay we got to the Moon but not really 'cause they cheated"
+Peter Timowreef
Teachers are cheaters. Anagram of teacher is cheater.
+Peter Timowreef in 1969 they didn't use calculator to go on the moon, they used something else called a slide rule. calculator weren't invented. So they went on the Moon without cheat code!
+Peter Timowreef because when you're a grown up, it's not like you'll be walking around all day with a calculator in your pocket.
oh wait.....
Alexei Elfenbein
Robert Horker
If that the were the case, for which you have no proof or sources, it'd be that generation that raised and taught this one.
How do your chances of winning change when you select two sets of numbers?
That's why I know many people who refer to it as "the idiot tax".
The less you're aware of the odds and the math behind it, the more "tax" you have to pay ...
millions of people waste way more money on drugs, alcohol, and cigarettes with a guarantee that the result will be harmful, so for me as a non drinker and a non smoker where is the harm of spending some of the money that would be wasted on those vices, on a couple lottery tickets and get to enjoy wild hopes and dreams that might actually come true?? ,,,btw i have won a couple hundreds dollars already,
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s You won a couple hundred, but throughout your life, how much did you spend to win that couple hundred?
@@devilliar3786 lol spent a couple dollars, its also funny because you commented now when just last night I won another couple grand and I've been sober, I have won more than I've spent, but I went in knowing the risk, it's either win big or lose, and as an adult I made that choice, ain't that how freedom is supposed to work?
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s Anyone that feels like they have to point out that they are an adult most likely isn’t. I think you are delusional, and dishonest.
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s As a gambling addict I look down on people who enjoy cigarettes and alcohol.
That's why I like numberphile. They are a bit more creative than the run of the mill slide show for explaining.
2:55
34
He was really lucky in his first go - Imagine how many times he had film that in order to get it correct?
I had a friend who was a policeman, he said scratchoffs have a system.....he was always winning.
Find out what the system is.
In Florida, where I live, you have the option to automatically fill out the ticket on a computer, and you can fill out as many as you want.
At the beginning of this month, I turned 18 which meant I could play the lottery here in America. I had no intentions of doing so, but my sister decided she would buy me some cheap scratch-off tickets. I won 6 times on one ticket, and none on the other 4 tickets. The odds of winning once on that ticket were 4:1, or so they say. But hey, I went up to the 7/11, collected my $50, and bought my sister coffee haha
Now your 28!
@@SooSkiTzOYT time flies😅
@@Ily-mx4sc sure does
I also won 50 bucks on a scratchoff that someone else bought me. Every few months I buy one for myself just for fun, of course I have never reached that high again 😝
My university operational research teacher once told the class "the lottery is a tax for idiots. I will laugh in your face if you do it"
Adam White Voluntary tax on poor and uneducated.
not exactly, some people can change their life if they win
like me
I will be american citizen
I would tell him to laugh at me then. I don't care I'm still gonna play.
He was absolutely right. But the thing is that these idiots win the jackpot every now and then.!!!
Here in America, the powerball is much, much, much harder to win odds wise. Not only is it out of 59 numbers, but the first number HAS to match as the first number picked (the powerball), on top of matching the rest of the numbers
No it doesn't. The Powerball is a 5+1 drawing. They draw 5 numbers from a pool of 59 numbers plus one additional number from a separate pool of 35. They may draw the +1 first (I've never watched the drawing) but it's still separate from the other 5 numbers.
No one cares about america
Fintuber
you do, or you wouldn't have commented.
purplexenno think again
+John McMillen In australia now its 6/40 + powerball 1/20
Thank you to share your blessing 🙏🙏🙏❤️❤❤
'Soooooo you're telling me there's a chance?'
That is for me winner
I know exactly what you mean by this!🤣🤣🤣
The issue comes with defining "random." Random means that previous results have no impact on future results, so that there is as much a chance of picking a number one off as there is any other number. What looks "random" to us, meaning significantly different, isn't actually random. You can use the same math to figure the odds of getting one-offs, as stated in the video, 2 in however many balls (1 off 5 would be 4 or 6, so 2 winners.) You'll find your odds are significantly better, obviously.
Hi
When you buy every possible combo and 'win' a little compared to the huge loss
Alguém aqui pode traduzir o que esse rapaz está dizendo? Assisti o vídeo achei interessante mas não entendi nada
recording the ball picks and then recording the winning numbers? :)
I've seen many ppl win the lotto than seen anyone be struck by lightning so far
MORNING.................MORNING.............MORNING
Let This New Month Be The Beginning Of Blessings In Your Life By Joining Us To Boom As We've Received Today Lunchtime And Teatime Numbers Requested For
Don't Doubt ✊Just Message Us Now On WhatsApp To know How It Works And Become Great ✊✅💯
+27 64 059 1264.....+27 64 059 1264......+27 64 059 1264
the chances is low but never zero.. my dad won 50k last year lottery 😃 I'm so hyped and want to try myself now.
Probability has many factors it's hard to assume. I would say probability of winning the lottery is far more easy to calculate than getting struck by lightning. Climate, location, holding something conductive, insulated by a structure, density of man-made/natural structures, etc.
Most of the time these jackpots are in Megaball or Powerball lotteries. The odds of winning these jackpots are significantly less than normal lotteries because that sixth ball must be drawn sixth instead of in any order, which limits the number of winning combinations. (Numerator is now 5*4*3*2*1*1 instead of 6*5*4*3*2*1)
From looking at the lottery ticket, it seems that the order in which the numbers are selected or drawn does not matter, and so their calculation should be correct. Other lotteries don't necessarily work that way, though.
we've got no balls at all XD
"yep ill pick 19 that was a good year for me", he got laid that year.
his calculations was based on a combination of numbers where it should be a permutation the difference being in a combination the order matters in a permutation it does not so unless lotto is played that the order you have has to match the order they are drawn so his answer should be divided by 6x5x4x3x2x1=720 which changes the odds of a combination of 6 numbers to a permutation
I thought I recognised this lecture theatre...As a Nottingham University Mathematics graduate, I approve.
4 years ago, I played pick 4 (here in Dallas, TX) and won $32k, and then a year later, on the exact same date, same game (night pick) won $32k again, and then exactly a year later, hit it for a 3rd time (same game). You can be sure that I will play it again, same date, this year.
What is the date and the number ?
I play pick 4 but never win
Im from vietnam tho
coincident
Is this true story? I don't want to come out as rude rude but I didn't know pick four could even pay that much out? Did you use your own personal numbers or quick picks? Just curious?
Very educational! Thank you!
Here in Brazil we have a saying about people that play the lottery: "Lottery is a tax for people who don't know probability". For me it's quite true. And here the lottery is worst, it's played with 60 numbers...
I Truly Have a Gifted With Predicting
you should do a video about the numbers in lost
4 8 15 16 23 42
and if they have any significance in the real world
I WISH my odds at winning the lotto were only 1/14 mil
In the States, the powerball odds are 1/170 mil
In Italy Superenalotto you have 1/622 million cause you choose 6/90 numbers. And biggest prize was like 213 million euro. Even if you win, lottery organizers make sure you lost more than 400 million.
Now it’s 1/302 mil in the states
He looked at the ball. Spun them round then says... Oh look.. Its a winner!!!
I love it .
You should pick 1-2-3-4-5-6. Same chance to win, but if you did people would say wow what are the odds!
Bad choice, same chance of winning than other choices, but you have to share the jackpot with more people in that unlikely case.
bighoov1 .that is the most popular combination selected because everyone thinks no one else will pick those numbers so it has the opposite effect.
Don't suggest this. I have seen people actually do that at the counter
Each Year 14,000 People Follow My Strategy and Win More Money Than They Have Ever Won In Their Life from The Lotto > *t. co/LuW1m5oJ3r*
winn saul García at corpus Christi winn 123 onli onli rehuse show bronlee striper Brownlee striper greenwood 2850 Harriet Cinthia Salazar for México 414 at won
There's a strategy because a lottery employee was giving his family members the strategy 2 members won twice. They investigated by an anonymous person and fired him. This happened 6 or 7 yrs ago.
I have chosen my numbers
Just waiting on its arrival
in the value given i understand it has no re occuring values such as 1,1, 2,2 and so on but how does it calculate so that thewre are no reoccuring combonations of numbers such as 1,2,3 or 3,2,1 or 2,1,3 or 2,3,1 because surley this occurance of combonations cant be accounted for and if i then have lotto numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 surley this combonation is in there somewhere in a varity of different orders such as 6,5,4,3,2,1, ??? how then can the final number be the real odds ???
why is this guy never in numberphile videos anymore?
+GroovingPict He's not a mathematician, he's a physicist. And most don't return after a video or a group.
+SoftwareFTW well they should bring him back for some more... I liked him
+GroovingPict he's on Brady's other channel, Sixty Symbols quite often. Or at least used to be, dunno about lately.
Actually, he won the lottery
And became a part time physicist.
I can't agree more with his last statement. It is worth to spend few bucks for all the excitement the whole process of buying the lottery ticket provides.
I have won multiple times (small amounts of money, of course) and the gratification is enormous. But people have to manage their expectations, the chances of wining are close to zero.... Funny thing though, random people win the lottery every week (sometimes twice a week). So...Why not ???
Might as well give it a go! (Within reason obviously)
+Kilak I think his point is just to play in moderation more than anything
better have something to lose than nothing at all, am I right? lol
But do they though ... do they ? I mean bc really if we all KNEW it was something we couldn't win at- NO ONE would ever "pay to play" a different yet similar example: if we could all TASTE how nasty Mcyuck yuck was for our bodies NOBODY would ever eat it and they'd be outta business😉 but it "SEEMS" fine and the madness continues.
A couple of times I get 3/6 or 4/7 numbers right and even that is gratifying on it's own as the chances of that are still very low as well.
Numbers (in the hands of a numberphile), don’t lie!
idk about UK, but in the US you have to pick them correctly in order, which stretches the odds even further.
Do you think the chances go up or down if you continue to pick the same numbers every week?
Bit late to the party... the chances will always be the same, if the game is truly random
Lottery ticket winners are upon luck and fate I do belive so nothing else
interesting this is great i enjoyed watching this. i may use this and see if i can win lol
Same haha lol
Right, I realized that later on... I forgot the question was about both happening in the same instance.
1:14 is it weird that I heard the "ta-daa!" sound in my head?
Working in a supermarket, many people come in and spend fortunes on the lottery EVERY SINGLE WEEK. Some even spend 60 pounds twice a week... idiotic!
If they invested that £120/week in to shares and property they would actually be able to build up quite a lot of wealth. xD
With that money they'd be better off buying syndicates, that way their 60 quid will go to a 600 pound ticket, only thing is you have to share the winnings with 10 other people but if the jackpot is high enough that doesn't really matter.
you added and extra 8 at the end there :p
Not only am I learning the odds of winning, I also learned the source of my local lottery's name. :P Lotto 6/49
What if you won the lottery, then got struck by lightning.
That would be awesome.😁
"the #19, that was a good year for me."
Lost his virginity
Brah you funny 😂😝
In Australia we have a lot of separate lotteries and the odds could be 1,000,000 up to over 10,000,000 to one
funny how when he is choosing the correct numbers if you subtract the top number from the bottom( of the odds for each ball) it makes 43 and if you do the same for the odds of not picking they make 6
Your chances of winning will be exactly the same each week if you keep picking the same numbers. In fact, there's nothing you can do to change the probability of winning. No matter what set of numbers you pick, it will have an equal probability to win as any other set of numbers you could have picked.
Winning the Lottery is not just a out the odds. It's about "Law Of Attraction!"
Athena Millay Did it work for you?
@@parveshdhookhit3431 where for art thou?
Athena Millay total B.S!
@@josephsvennson5694 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Yes agreed ~ the power of belief!
Amazing
Can someone explain (or link a reference to) exactly how he calculated the decimal 7.151 x 10^-8 to = 1/13983816? 4:03 . Thanks in advance
I want to win Lottery!!
Jackpot - 7 Times in my lifetime!!
Yeah, me too.....£10 each time..!!
I declare winning lotto …….by grace through faith
A man help me with this.
And I won a lottery
@@Vinolia_Mashego Get in contact with him on WhatsApp
@@Vinolia_Mashego +2347011079958
@@Vinolia_Mashego don’t do it, it’s a scam
That is the chance of WINNING!
THE TETRIS ADDICT!!!! How's your PhD thesis on patterns of sand going, man?!