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Is the VFX Industry Dying?
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- Опубліковано 13 лип 2024
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It's a scary world to be stepping into at the age of 17, all the jobs I've seen advertised are for seniors.
It's definitely a bad time to be entering the industry as a jr. Hang in there and you'll see opportunities reappearing soon enough.
After 24 years in anim vfx industry, I still advice youngsters to rethink this field. Seems attractive from outside but inside its very unstable and not good for health.
@@misanthrope_01 Sorry, but you don't know of what you speak. The application doesn't matter, knowledge is basically universal across them and if you actually even spent 5 minutes in job listings, you would see that almost every one of them is searching for "Senior" and "Lead". Check your bad attitude.
@@titanraven4576 "knowledge is basically universal across them", I wouldn't say so. Houdini has a very different workflow than Blender and for someone to transition from Blender to Houdini on a level that's good enough for getting a job in VFX industry seems like it would take at least a few months.
I didn’t move from 2.5D to 3D until age 49. Like the fellow above said, knowledge opens doors. Learn, practice, make, iterate. Repeat.
I have a recruiter acquaintance who is a VFX recruiter who told me he had almost 1000 people apply for a 3d modeller job here in the UK. I expect competition for jobs to continue to grow. It is going to continue to be a competitive market for job seekers. I am finding that web development is also getting just as competitive after 15+ years of CS graduates learning Javascript the market is now completely saturated. If you want a job you need to focus on the jobs that are the most abundant but the least popular. And far too many people want to get paid to make movies, games and websites. Saying all that. I do think that the game industry will continue to grow once this recession is over, but I think competition even with growth will not change all that much from what it is today. If anything I expect competition to grow exponentially. I would not recommend 3d modelling, texturing, animation or web development to my kids as a career any more. In fact I would actively advise them to either do something else or work on their own projects and business ideas or form your own studio or game company. Work for yourself.
Great video! It's the same with the animation industry right now, the streaming bubble created the perfect storm (in combination with the 2023 strikes and upcoming IATSE / TAG negotiations) for this year where many animation workers are losing their jobs with little hope on the horizon. While I do think the industry will eventually course correct, it will have to go up against the larger studios thinking they understand AI and overestimating how many jobs they can cut in the process. I imagine VFX will have a similar trajectory. I think the future of animation & VFX is in smaller indie studios and not necessarily the larger studios (Godzilla Minus One is the shining example here).
I had a meeting with WetaFX a few weeks ago, I feel lucky to live here in NZ where a lot of shows are ramping up.
WetaFX actually opened an office here in Vancouver earlier this year, which hopefully is still open!
Because I'm going to be applying there as soon as my reel is ready.
Yeah I've been out of a job for year now. They've been saying "maybe soon" for way to long now so I just started working with something completely different. Sad times :\
Fingers crossed you can get back into the industry if/when things pick back up. Assuming you haven't left for good.
@@DECODEDVFX For now I'll probably leave, I've done it before and come back to it, variation in life is always nice :) Also when not working with it I tend to do more 3D on my spare time which is nice! This time I'm even going to try to make a proper short film, fingers crossed for that one ^^
second video i am looking from you (1st one was about topology) and both were really interesting! you got a new follower ^^
I'm not in the VFX industry, but I do freelance graphic design work. We're in a time where technology, especially AI, is making our jobs either simpler or more complicated. Recent films with small budgets or teams, such as "Everything Everywhere All At Once," "The Creator," and the Oscar-winning "Godzilla Minus One," demonstrate that major VFX studios will struggle to prove their work is superior, as their flaws become more noticeable. Previously, productions used multiple VFX houses for sequences; now, a small in-house team can achieve the same results at a fraction of the cost and time.
I would not contribute those film’s VFX achievements at all to AI though. I’ve been in the industry for 14 years.
@@MalmqvistM I did mention AI, but none of the films I referred to used AI in their visual effects. However, both "Everything Everywhere All at Once" and "Godzilla Minus One" have small in-house VFX teams that produce excellent work. "The Creator" previsualized the exact VFX shots to minimize costs from Industrial Light & Magic (ILM).
@@Mangolite Yep, we’re on the same page then :)
@@Mangolite What do you mean? The Creator was made by ILM (not at all a small studio) and was not "previsualized" any more than any other movie, half of the actors were replaced in post without anyone knowing which ones would be replaced until the VFX house started the work, and the director was just randomly traveling around south-east asia randomly shooting parts of the film, with the VFX supe just trying to keep up and capture as much usable data as possible. Source: the ILM team itself during a conference I attended last year.
@@sirdiff1 Director Gareth Edwards is a VFX artist, similar to director Takashi Yamazaki of *Godzilla Minus One*. Both understand the intricacies of VFX and know the precise steps to implement them effectively. Despite both films having budgets around $15 million, they look impressive. While ILM is a major studio, Gareth Edwards leverages his expertise to maximize the potential of his projects.
In my neck of the woods the new Alien series just wrapped production after dragging on for ages due to the strike, and the new Jurassic World is going into production, so it's true that Hollywood hasn't dropped effects films altogether. We also just had a release of a film called Uranus 2324 which heavily featured a lot of VFX that were done amazingly fast and look fantastic. I'm not sure where they were done, and must have been handled by multiple houses due to the short time between production and release. Filming was in March and April, and the premiere was 2 June! At the premiere a film director who specialises in horror, expressed to me his surprise about how quickly they were able to accomplish it.
Wise insight and advice!
Film and game industry works in similar ways with huge productions that demand a lot of people and between these, none is needed... and many studios put "all the eggs in the same basket" with only one production at the time. Then we get these roller coaster situation. Also, people are tired of games and movies with no story and just VFX and action. It was fun in the beginning, but now they expect more so these industries has to adapt to a time where the demand for VFX is lower and good stories higher. On top of this, a VFX artist is a bit too narrow today. If you are an expert on Houdini you will hang in there, but in many cases the VFX is made by Technical Artists like me and we have a much broader skill set and can be useful even when other things are needed so safer to hire instead of a pure VFX person. However, even if the market is shrinking and the times are unstable, VFX is always in need and it will not vanish or be completely taken by AI.... so don't give up.
On demand AI movies and games in 10yrs, amazing times ahead. Everyone will be a creator.
@@blackstar4111 in what world thats a good thing
If you do outsourcing ( let alone organize your entire industry around it lol ) , you should have an understanding that the music will stop eventually.
The writers and actors strikes hit the industry hard. I know of amazing artists who are still unemployed. It seems like from what I hear that it's finally starting to come back.
9:19 thank you for scratching my right ear
No idea how that happened. I'll try to trim it out.
Fixed. Thanks for letting me know.
It's the same in india... They want professional level skills even if you're applying as a fresher... Also internship just means less salary and same work that professionals do
In which company you doing job
New movies stories sucks
Things are ramping up slowly , its not just vfx alone , the hole movie/streaming business collapsed a bit
Great realistic insight Rob! I'm hopeful as well. The industry is constantly transforming.
BCON this year?
Thanks man. Hopefully I'll be there but I can't say for certain yet.
do other things that do less but pay more guys! do our vfx for our passion and views only!
Always a need for it, there are still vinyl records being sold. Niche will stick around
IATSE and DGA member here since 2000 and 2004 respectively. Can't say it hasn't been interesting. But at my age, I'm done with this crap.
Cheers.
It's definitely not slowing in this 3rd world.
yeah because all the non-union/weak worker protection jobs are flowing from 1st world countries to 3rd world . But understand that the corpo used you to stab the American/European means they will stab you eventually using somebody else(or just AI) . Save up and buy a house while you can
Vfx industry can never end and yes Ai is useless for movies 😊
01.01.2023 - that is my first day of being unemployed. What even more funny, because of Ukraine emigration, there is no low pay/office jobs in my city that is biggest in whole region.
It only took about 9 minutes for us to go from there are no vfx jobs to you are starting to see vfx jobs and senior positions available. And yea let’s support individual vfx artists and there products by buying them, oh fantastic you happen to have one of them projects for sale. Don’t forget this is not one of “those” videos as you stated at the start. I stayed for the conversational style though. Keep it up
@@darksushi9000 I possibly wasn't clear enough about this. There's been a small increase in VFX placements recently that I've seen anecdotally, but thousands of people have been laid off over the last year. The UK VFX industry alone saw a 40% decrease in paid jobs last year.
@@DECODEDVFX Hi, it’s not that you were not it clear. It’s more like you broke the rules of your own video. Just seemed a little silly. I as a viewer want you to be better so that I have a continued reason to like & subscribe.
Do not underestimate the impact that AI will have on the entire entertainment industry. It may not be the problem right now, but it is coming.
99,99999999% of the new movies are complete garbage and unwatchable, vfx does not fix bad movies, thus the investment on vfx becomes redundant. This not AI´s fault.
Nothing to do with AI? What were the strikes (that caused all of this) about?
AI was only one of many disagreements between SAG and AMPTP. The main point of contention was residuals from streaming platforms. And the strikes are only part of the reason for the downturn.
@@DECODEDVFX Ai was the tipping point
We are using AI , just keeping it secret
This is so sad
Sorry about making such a gloomy video, but I think this is important to talk about.
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@@misanthrope_01 You are extremely dense.
I think the reasons are today's bad quality movies/series and an increasingly demanding audience for extreme (and expensive) details.
@@misanthrope_01 Sorry, but the quality of the cinematic content today is below acceptable in most cases.
@@misanthrope_01 Sorta, but I mean look at what counted as "bad" 15 years ago vs now. Spider-Man 3 is a masterpiece compared to even the most middling modern movie.
@@xalener that is sad
AI will not take over, so don't worry...:)
In the next 10 years, most TV ads will be entirely AI/CGI generated. Why hire photographers/videographers, and all the people that go into making a traditional commercial, when you can go to your computer and tell it, "Make me a 30 second commercial showing a couple enjoying a Coke on the beach in Thailand".
are you something related to the industry , or your comment is only based on what you see on youtube
@@George901210 I have a couple of friends that work in large marketing firms. They are already looking at replacing some photography assignments with AI generated images. The first version of their ad copy is often AI generated.
I agree with you here. Computer software with AI make it almost trivial to produce output that up until now required hiring employees with special skills or outsourcing those projects to companies that specialized in them. Administrative assistants used to attend meetings to take notes. Graphic designers produced marketing collateral. Photographers took high-quality images. I believe that humans still do the best job in all those categories -- but I also see that a lot of companies would gladly sacrifice top-quality for inexpensive "good enough." If an AI bot does a reasonable job taking meeting notes do we really need an administrative assistant? If downloadable templates help us make a brochure that looks better than the other companies at the trade show do we need to pay for a graphic designer? If AI can produce a cool looking picture for our website is it necessary to hire a photographer? These are the questions that go around the board rooms of small companies. The answer to all of them is "sometimes" but as technology advances the need for skilled employees decreases. That's scary, but I also believe that humans will always be required to produce the highest quality work, work that is inspiring, meaningful, and lasting.
@@cliffnieuwenhuis8638 that raises the question, do you really need the best to make a commercial?
@@TheBigBlueMarble Exactly! A few years ago you needed a pro to produce *any* commercial. Now it's a click of a button. So the people making a living filming commercials have a harder time getting work.
We are already using AI on our TV show, no one has noticed, saving almost 50%
What show is that, is it available somewhere or still in production? Cheers
its fine for commercials in some cases but if its in the wrong film and used poorly people will notice and revolt
first 😎
nah bots were faster 😂
@@microfx Help this man out and report them
That's a fair overview. Do games next🥲