Did Sanctions Just Break Russia After All?
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- Опубліковано 15 чер 2024
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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.
www.moneymacro.rocks/blog
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
0:51 - Russian data
5:24 - sponsor
6:50 - Sanction Damage
13:19 - role in the uprising
Attribution:
- Russian state footage shared by the Telegraph
- Scientific experiment footage from the UA-cam channel Animated Science
- Wagner footage shared by various Russian users on Telegram
Neon sign from: www.neonlights.be/discount/M&M15
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Animations by Hugo (Into Europe)
Thumbnail by Tom Hurling studiotomkin.com/
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4:00 I like how the domestic activity tracker only tracks a single day yet shows such great variations 😯
All wars are bankers wars and all bankers are international zionist bankers working for the Rothchilds.
The graphic at 4:00 has an error on the horizontal time axis
Well hold on here yet for a second...
You can't just ignore such massive factors as the societal backlash
Just like you can't separate a sanctioned reality and a control reality you can't just attribute everything to the sanctions by themselves
The war itself has an impact
Be it by causing supply chain disruption by taking away materials inferstracture and young productive workers
Or by other factors such as boycotts...
Or more specifically individuals avoiding Russian products
And etc
(Sure all thoes small factors aren't significant on they're own but they add up)
From investors pulling away because of the lsck of confidence in the economy to small businesses leaving and etc etc all of that has both a short and a long term economic consequence
And you can't just attribute all of that to the sanctions
It's hard to say just how big of an impact they had but just because the dconomt contracted doesn't mean much
What if in an alternative reality control
The economy would've even subtracted more because of the reaction to the war and lack of sanctions
There's always a bit of randomness and there's always human behavior
Just like people stopped giving money to charities because society got used to the idea that there's a government and a welfare safety net...
Doesn't mean that in a case of emergency society won't support itself
Sure if governments were to collapse/drop all welfare. There will be a temporary shock to the system and a lot of people will suffer as a consequence
But eventually people will rebuild the good old charity community support structures and life will go on as before...
Who knows how'd humans react if there were no sanctions maybe it'd drive people to go the extra mile to boycott Russia and avoid the Russian economy
Russian oil and etc...
Who knows
Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.
Who would have thought a private military would put their business interest over national security?
Its safe as long Wangner worked for its oeiginal purpose in Africa and Syria, when its so close to the moscow and recruts thousants of people, and finally left the front to the camps after capturing Bakhmut it became out of control
Its very unclear what Wangner future in Belarus would be, we could only imagine what happens this time
whats that say about blackwater in the usa
Nicolo Machiavelli mentioned how mercenaries are loyal to the prince that sent them (Prigozhen), not the prince that uses them (Putin)
Who would think that armies would be loyal to politicians? Especially when they don’t believe their orders are in line with what helps the actual country.
The Russian Oligarch chose money over matters of national impact!?! * Surprised face *
As a political scientist, I really appreciated the disclaimer at the end about the limits of economics in explaining things. Too many economists miss this bit and just forge on with predictions that leave me shaking my head for how divorced from any political context they are.
Great analysis and communication as always.
Thank you. Very happy to hear that!!
As a a scientist, I find your use of the word science makes me shake my head. It has all the rigour of humanities and none of the authority of a true science. It’s use of the name is a theft of valour.
@@eedobee lol butthurt much?
Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.
@@eedobeeAh, always nice to spot arrogant yet apparently clueless people when it comes to social sciences and their work.
Gazprom just declared it would not pay its dividend for 2022, saving it $13.2 Billion. Simultaneously, the Duma passed legislation levying a new 1.2 trillion ruble tax on Gazprom. Over the past 9 months, the founding CEO and 5 other senior execs have died under unusual circumstances. At the time of the war, a significant portion of Gazprom's shares held by foreign interests were essentially confiscated. It's not a particularly big mystery what's going on here, and that adds back a non-trivial amount to Putin's treasury.
he put them there, he owned them.
Wow. I was just about to ask if there has been any analysis of shareholder interests in important Russian companies. If sanctions are having the effect of denying dividends, enough rich folks will force Putin out, slowly but surely, and then all at once.
Russia's reserves were seized and its Nordstream blown up. Its war.
Gas exports were going to EU mostly,after NS being blown up its obvious that Gazprom would have losses. All the other conspiracy theories i dont care to follow myself,but be my guest.
Russian oil companies on the other hand,since oil is more easily trasported and stored than gas is by ship or in general,they are doing more than fine.
@@giannislainas5187cope
The intellectual humility from an economist is shocking. You earned a sub just for that. Excellent video!
he so so biased person in uk or some european. take like boss terms in his videos.
Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.
Eh, they still released a video where they used 3 basically non-sensible number and took an average.
@@michaelkirk4173 the wisdom of crowds
@@michaelkirk4173 Yeah, but he contextualised the lack of any better data... Probably had too many sigfigs or whatever in his final average, but other than that I think it's understandable as a best-effort estimate?
Sanctions never squeeze an economy enough to stop bad behavior on their own, and I don't think anyone believed that Putin would be stopped by sanctions. Still, Russia is uniquely sensitive to oil price caps and to the exodus of young educated men who are avoiding mobilization.
Putin could have stopped this exodus like Ukraine did. He didn’t. 😂
Sanctions work but they take time. At a minimum, they degrade a nation's ability to wage war.
@@macmcleod1188eh not really, at most it promotes isolationism and self-sufficiency. Russia is already cautious with US movement, so they probably had prepared.
@@insomniacresurrected1000Putin isn't very competent. That is why he couldn't stop the exodus.😂
@@macmcleod1188 Russia was always under some form of sanctions, it didn’t help shit.
Love the increased pace of video release. This is the only economics channel that I personally trust. I hope that you keep growing and that you are able to produce more content :)
Thank you!! I am on a 2 video pm schedule at the moment and for the upcoming months. Had to actually scale back a little bit in March & April because of my duties as a new father.
Congratulations macro, family first afterall🎉🎉
@@MoneyMacroThe United States and Britain could attack Iraq without any consequences. while Russia attacking Ukraine could get economic sanctions. really western hypocrisy
@@MoneyMacro congrats 👏 💖
@@MoneyMacroWhen Ukraine sent their troops to Iraq, they had no problem with invasions or not respecting other countries' sovereign territory.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq%E2%80%93Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Approximately%205000%20Ukrainian%20soldiers%2C%20in,Iraq%20%282003%E2%80%932011%29
I find the political explanation WAAY more convincing.
Prigozhin has been openly criticizing and competing against the RU military for at least 10 months. In the last few months he really became outspoken and was openly saying that the ministry of defense are incompetent and corrupt fools. With that, they decided that Wagner has finished its job and is ready to be integrated into the regular armed forces. Then he revolted because his company would be absolved and his power that he fought so hard to achieve will be gone now.
In the end it's a combination. Money is power and more power is more money, fundamentally. Everything he said building up to it can be used as his justification for his actions because saying "you don't give me enough money" doesn't sound as convincing with his clout.
I'm not saying you're wrong at all, you're probably right but it's almost always a combination of things and almost never a single reason. Politics and economics go hand in hand
Multiple things can be true. Another non-sanction related possible cause could be the loss of young men either to battlefield or fleeing to other countries, who are extremely important to any economy
Russia could also benefited from record prices in oil and gas last summer that could've helped them offset some effects of the sanctions
The Russian economy is definitely not as good as it should've been if no war took place, at least the commercial part, as the video states. Plus, this video only focused on GDP growth, as other metrics are either unavailable or not viable. Sanctions also give diplomatic power that will be really important in the eventual negotiations that will take place some day
Agreed. Wagner has control of some extremely rich African mines and places like the Central African Republic have corruption similar to Russia's meaning it would actually be shocking if Wagner wasnt receiving tons of money outside of what the CAR and Russian governments are paying them. Prigozhin uses mostly Russian equipment and supplies, and he's been carrying out a lot of his combat lately with unpaid conscripts and unpaid prisoners, and knowing Russia it's also quite possible that he's not paying for the voluntary soldiers under his command if they die. Prigozhin and Wagner were being paid pretty good before the war, estimates vary wildly but Prigozhin is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions and perhaps even over a billion, one of the few things he really lacks though is safety and stability since all of his power and all of his wealth are at Putins whim and it wouldnt take much for Putin to take it all away from him so building some public support and asserting his position in the country like with this "coup" or by being one of the few who's criticized Kremlin elites or Putin and survived
Both are true. Look at the timing. Shoigu was trying to take over Prigo's private army AND economic enterprise by breaking Wagner up. Prigo said no way and launched the mutiny even a little early to prevent this. He may have had political support lined up in certain Generals and Kremlin insiders, but that support didn't hold. Luke sees an opportunity and says, I'll give you legal status here, so you can continue your global enterprise... and give me kickbacks. It's both political and $$.
@@arthas640 But Wagner's control of the mines is, on paper, based on Prigozhin's shell companies that connect to his catering business. Wagner becoming part of the MoD means squat, Progozhin is the money man. And I'd be surprised if Russia actually went mask off, the mines will most likely be held by shell companies rather than the Russian state.
I am so glad you mention that economics is not exact science.
Social sciences in general cant be exact, not only its an experement in real time but human behaviour can be absolutely random, its like pedicting the lottery outcome without knowing numbers
@@-kenjo-421Social science is not science. That's why.
Social sciences test hypothesis starting from theories through the scientific method, of course they are science
@@overman2306 dumb
@Nevio197 Only physics, chemistry, biology and possibly astronomy are science. Everything else is just political hacks trying to pass off their theories as science. Science exists without humans existing.
I am so glad to have an economist so confidently state the flaws of the discipline. Many economists overstate what they can deduce and would probably leap at an opportunity to explain the Wagner coup as a purely economical phenomenon. I still think this is very useful analysis and can paint parts of the broader picture.
Did you actually listen to Progozhin???
He thinks Russia should take of the Kid Gloves and wreck Ukraine😂
Yes. Russian economic statistics were pretty decent before 2022. Probably one reason why the IMF continues to trust them for too long.
The explanation you're doing in this video is excellent! I'm usually always lost at some point because you sometimes mention things you assume the viewer knows. But as someone who was very science-heavy in my high school, this was very very easy to understand, and the explanation was crisp, to the point. I'd almost argue you're adding too many "grains of salt" disclaimers. The methods explained in this video are pretty solid. As long as you're not saying "this is definitely the state of the Russian economy" and use careful language like "it is estimated" you're in the clear. I mean anyone who understands basic economics and science will get what you mean - meanwhile those who love gripping headlines like "chocolate causes cancer" would point out how "evolution is just a theory" when in reality they really could use some reality based info... I mean after all, even weather is a forecast, a prediction based on simulation. But we don't just discard it - it's useful even when slightly inaccurate. But yeah, props - my new respect for this channel... Economists tend to not be as careful as scientist, so I appreciate your effort to address this 'dogma'.
"Economists tend not to be as accurate as scientists... My brother, music to my ears. Thank you.
@@EnemyOfEldarBY @ymirheimmusic959 --- song performed by UB40
Dedicated to prigozhin, with no malice...
[Chorus:]
There's a rat in mi kitchen what am I gonna do?
There's a rat in mi kitchen what am I gonna go?
I'm gonna fix that rat thats what I'm gonna do,
I'm gonna fix that rat.
When you open your mouth you don't talk, you shout
And you give every body the blame,
But when they catch you up,
They will shut you up
And you got no one to blame
[Chorus]
When you out on the street,
You practice lies and deceipt
And you scandalize my name
But when I catch you up
I'm gonna pull you up
I'm gonna check-out inside your brain
[Chorus]
When yo deh pon the scene,
You make everyone scream
Because they know your so unjust
But when they catch you up
They will kick you up
Because you someone they cannot trust
[Chorus]
You invade my space
Make me feel disgraced
And you just don't give a damn
If I had my way
If I had my say
I'd like to see you hang
admittedly, chocolate does cause cancer
because EVERYTHING causes cancer
I admire this channel because it is one of very few UA-cam economy channels (or social science in general) that openly admitted the science of macroeconomics, which "cannot explain the global affairs without the political context."
Ultimately, economics is nothing more than a special case of ecology applied to a single species (our own). Sociology is simply a sub-discipline of anthropology, which is itself a sub-discipline of ecology. Again, simply focused on one species, our own. A lot of things that happen both domestically and geopolitically make sense once you correctly place these things into this hierarchy, assuming you know some fundamental ecological theory.
@@cjohnson3836 I think there's a trend in general now of looking more at human systems in an ecological lens. Urban planning is another area that is undergoing this perspective shift.
@@Descriptor413 There is, its yet a bit superficial though. People aren't yet ready for topics like the evo-eco implications of cultural inheritance and multi level selection on a frequency dependent fitness landscape that, for instance, means that authoritarian dictatorships are a necessary component in maintaining democracy elsewhere. Or that social punishment is a necessary component in the maintenance of cooperation and this fact predicts things like the anti-trans blowback we are currently seeing in western countries. [Not saying its a good thing, good is relative to one's values. Just saying its a feature of the system]
Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.
Paying Wagner an allowance gives me the image of a neighbor paying his kid an allowance to break windows in the neighborhood. Of course, when I was a glazier, we all thought of this as a way to create more business, but we never actually did it.....
Huge mistake by Putin admitting this after denying it previously. That along with Wagner admitting the justification for invading Ukraine is a lie = stick a fork in Russia the fat lady sings.
Excellent, balanced and rational assessment without clickbait nonsense. Highly recommended.
Gave you the facts, gave the potential problems, showed many studies, and was consistent with saying that it's evidence but not a smoking gun. I think it's enough evidence to draw a decent conclusion that the war has indeed had a major negative impact on the economy but determining that exact number is very difficult and determining how much of it is from the sanctions and how much from other variables related to starting a war is also difficult.
As Lewis Black once pointed out, economists can never be too sure about anything because economics classes are always taught at 7:00 AM. But I do appreciate the explanation that economics can't really be quantified the way normal scientific observations can.
The science of economics is about finding economic law. Laws are regularities that occur in nature, in this case, in economies. For example, laws of supply and demand. The law of comparative advantage. Someone who calls themself an economist and records historical monetary data and makes a guess about a growth rate in one country is not really doing "economics", but is accounting data, such as aggregating trade inflows and outflows. Theyre doing some accounting. This type of accounting doesnt require an economics education, it requires the ability to add and subtract and then report a single number for someone.
@@-whackd Quite true. I did study economics but unlike Lewis Black, I had the advantage of not studying it at 7:00AM.
I wish the people who believe that we're cooking the planet had the same humility. There exists, of course, no parallel Earth where humans never experienced the Industrial Revolution that we can use to observe the composition of the atmosphere and the nature of the climate to compare to the like phenomena of our own industrialized earth. There are models, of course, that can't compare at all to the imagined Earth doppelganger -- that are like a child's drawing compared to the Mona Lisa, really. But millions believe in them implicitly.
@@-whackda common phrase in the FT comment section is that "Economics are just politics with a calculator." The law of supply and demand was created to justify the price, but the actual pricing was always done based on how much its sellers think they can get away with.
2023's planned deficit was exhausted by May. We will see whether gas and oil flow extraordinarily well, but reserves will be depleted by the middle of 2024 at this rate. There are, however, already plans to do budget cuts on healthcare and whatnot.
Sure the Russian population will love it
Are the pension cuts still going ahead?
@@memofromessexthey wont “cut” the pensions but rather they will not be indexed to inflation this way the majority of the pensioners will blame the evil “speculators” for raising the prices while the government will be blameless in their eyes plus add some good ol propaganda for good measure. Women above the age of 50 is putin’s core electorate.
@@memofromessex I don't recall anything new, but remember that they have been suspending people's mandatory personal contributions to pay current pensioners for 10 years. It's normally 16% to cover others and 6% toward your personal pension plan, but it's been all 22% to others. No pension indexation for people that continue to work after reaching retirement age either.
@@MrEstarionJesus. Does the public know about this, or do they just don’t care? Or can’t do anything about it even if they did care?
The Russian monthly balance sheets (which contain some potentially manipulated figures but harder to tweak the totals) show the impact of sanctions pretty well and you can just look at the monthly impacts.
Whenever they say “It’s not about the money”…it’s about the money. 🤑
Thanks for the video. The x-axis of your chart at 4:00 mislabels dates. I'm pretty sure that data starts at January 2021 and ends at March 2023. The title of that graph also has a typo.
The graph is a mess, not only from top to bottom but also from left to right. I was scrolling through the comments to see if somebody had already pointed this out, but your criticism doesn't come close to this abomination of a graph! That this was apparently missed by 99% of viewers would seem to indicate the power of cognitive biases and a compelling narrative - perhaps because it uniquely offers an alternative to the more mainstream contention that Russian economic output is roughly on par with that of the German economy. You're right ofc, the first piece of evidence presented to support this contentious narrative is a simple graph - it is mistitled, it has mislabelled axes, and the x-axis range is arbitrarily selected such that the lines of best fit for each model correlate well. But more importantly, potentially significant deviations between the model and the official data can be seen from the very first data point (Sep '21), long before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, where both empirical models *overestimate* Russian economic output compared to Rostat GDP estimation. Logically, it seems unlikely that Rostat would deliberately *understate* Russian GDP, so this would imply that the model is not especially accurate - perhaps consistently overestimating Russian economic output, or perhaps the model variably deviates from Russian GDP measures of output. We cannot infer which is more likely, due to the narrow selection of date ranges from 6mo before the invasion till recently: i.e. more datapoints should be shown on the graph from when Rostat could be trusted to fairly calculate/ accurately present Russian GDP data, as these datapoints provide a accurate baseline comparator vs the post-invasion Rostat data (hypothesised by M&M to be doctored but not proven herein). Significant deviations between the two empirical models used can also be seen at specific mislabelled timepoints (2nd, 4th and 6th) in the same graph - time points where the more parsimonious model actually estimates GDP to be closer to the Rostat estimation than to the less parsimonious model. But if one empirical model is more accurate than the other, then why bother including both on the graph? This isn't to say that the hypothesis is wrong, but it's better to engage in empty speculation than to present models as though they are proof that the hypothesis is correct.
Perun made a good video about country economy during war time , he made a point that economy rarely collapse due to war
The British economy collapsed post WW2. US emergency loan only recently paid off.
My understanding of the Prigozhin situation was 1) Prigozhin openly criticised Gerasimov and Shoigu in public, calling them negligent, incompetent, and saying they only got their jobs because of corruption. 2) WPMC forces were withdraw fron the line and told they would be sent to a much less active part of the front in Belarus 3) Prigozhin was told the Russian government would not be renewing his contract meaning that he would soon have no money to pay his troops and so hold his organisation together 4) Prigozhin accused the Russian command of making a missile or rocket attack on one of his bases, possibly implying there was an attempt by them to assassinate him. This was almost immediately followed by him marching on Rostov, Gerasimov flying out, and WPMC seizing control of the Army HQ at Rostov. This was then followed by the "march on Moscow". This was all clearly a desperate attempt by Progozhin to protest and demonstrate about events and to try to save his own skin personally and hold his organisation together. It really was desparate, because it had little chance of succeeding.
This is what I love about economics. Aggregating peer reviewed, flawed research to come to a pretty decent estimation
What I don't love about economics is the amount of specious/flawed research that makes it through peer review!
That was sarcasm right ? Please tell me that was sacasm and that you do not really believe that averaging 3 turd magically produce roses.
What I hate about economics is political ideology disguised as a science. You should always doubt a person in a position of authority that never uses the phrase "I'm not sure".
@@Emanon...
100% this.
Economics usually is filled with bullshit, but yes, when economists actually do empirical work then it's very interesting.
This channel is WAY better than Economics Explained!
This channel is MILES ahead of EE - that channel is mediocre imho
@@midamida915 Yeah, EE is flawed pop economics
Economics explained is trash
@@memofromessexfr
@@ibfreely8952the Dave Ramsey of economics focused channels
Nice video and explanation, Joeri. And great that you mention Vlad Vexler. Another expert that is happy to admit any limitations of knowledge available about specific topics. The intellectual honesty of both of you is well appreciated!
@@defcreator187 Sorry, I can't help you with your mental issues. You will need to contact a professional for that.
More than GDP, it is the fiscal deficit that is the ticking time-bomb for the Kremlin.
By far their most important source of revenue is the hydrocarbon industry. Much their most profitable sector was the sale of refined products to the EC, which is now close to 100% sanctioned. They can't pivot these sales to Asia because China and India have their own refining capability and are only buying crude. Gas sales to the EC are also crippled, and the ability to pivot to Asia is limited by the lack of suitable pipelines. And finally, Russian oil production costs are very high, so price-caps and discounting mean that sales are barely covering costs.
This means that while GDP is just about holding up, taxable profits have been slashed. Government revenue is down around 40% while war costs have driven up outlays by 50%. With half of their reserves frozen overseas, the remaining pot is haemorrhaging, with informed voices inside Russia warning that it will be exhausted well within the next 12 months.
At that point they will have to resort to printing money, triggering ruinous inflation. The sanctions are biting hard, and the Kremlin is in very deep trouble indeed.
We have seen same words year ago. And as I can see Russia is still on the map and not planning to go bankrupt
@innelator6941 the crude sanctions were only introduced in December. The gas and refined sanctions in February of 2023. That's enormously relevant here. The EU and ROW didn't/couldn't decouple immediately and Russia was able to benefit from high prices last year. That's no longer true and their monthly deficits at the moment are crippling them. They've got 8 months maximum of reserves left to cover their current deficits and there's no sign of how they could plug the gap with current sanctions.
its already been proven that the petrol sanctions and cap do nothing; the gas is just being rerouted to Turkey, India, and China who are then reselling it to the European and America at market rate. Whenever the US pulls more from the petrol reserves, OPEC+ immediately cut further productions to keep petrol prices up. the US can't hold back the petrol prices for long; those reserves will be depleted eventually.
You're seriously misunderstanding the current situation.
@@falloncj the thing is that data varies from source to source. One source says that everything is not that bad, just changing markets. Another says that Russia will collapse in like 2 seconds. It’s all about the source. The info about reserves can be nothing but propaganda. This topic is THE WORST as you can’t escape propaganda from both sides
@@SpaghetteMan No I think it's you who has the misunderstanding. The price cap was never there to stop russia selling oil, it was to do the exact opposite. It can't choke supply to drive up demand because it only gets so much for what it sells. Which means there's plenty of oil on the market and the US won't have to dip further into its reserves.
Thank you for explaining and showing us where you got the prediction.
BBC: "What was your rank, soldier?"
Average Wagner SS-NKVD conscript: "I think the judge called it First Degree Murder, Armed Robbery and Sexual Assault ...and the medic told me that I am HIV and TBC positive. That's why I got this job: I passed all the tests."
And the "Nato-trained, highly motivated Ukrainian soldiers" lost a city to them so what is your point? Oh wait, your profile pic checked out. My bad.
@@allent.g560 NATO this NATO that *inhales copium* NATO NATO NATO we're winning the war against NATO *inhales more copium* I am not coping!!!
NATOfashfiljasfkl
@@allent.g560a town for 8 months of fighting and now they already lost part of it
@@allent.g560 ivan 🐐, your horde is c r a p !
@@allent.g560 ордынские танки это конечно же далеко не лучшие в мире, но вот зато безусловно самые вежливые , которые ведь всегда общаясь с HIMARS снимают башни.
As a natural scientist, I commend your clear explanation. One remark, however. The figure 7.37% makes no sense because the error in the estimate is much bigger than 0.01%. The figure 7% would be accurate enough.
Yes, exactly. I just commented to point this out also (guess I should have read a few more comments first).
Give a range of 7% to 8% would have sufficed. No point in giving an estimate to 2 decimal places given the size of the uncertainty.
Dankjewel voor uw analyse!
That was a good video. I am a complete airhead when it comes to economy but you explained it so well, even I understood it!
acknowledgment of limitation - spoken like a true academic. as always, informative and entertaining and just enough space to ruminate on the discussion.
My biggest advice to all western youtubers, that try covering topic of Russia is get some russian speaking to filter news. If anyone relies on the words of Kadyrov; then his knowledge of situation is absent
Prigozhin’s behaviour has nothing to do with money as they’ve got plenty. There are many theories. Two of them are solid. But nobody thinks that he started it because he wasn’t getting paid
I thought he was supposed to get shares from the captured Ukrainian mines. He happily took pictures in the salt mine only to realize later it was gonna require too much work. Russians were highly disappointed by that news.
Finally a great video about the mercenary revolt. As all previous mercenaries revolts, it is all about payment delays
What an amazing video. Discusses the most important studies, their major flaws, and mentions that while the specific numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, most of the data suggest a similar story of a sizeable drop in GDP relative to what is expected. I do want to add somethings and reiterate other things which were discussed at times but that people generally forget. The gist of it is that effect on 'true gdp' could be around 11-12%pt drop compared to a situation where Russia doesn't invade and all that happening while Russia's budget deficit is soaring in order to pay for the war, pay to prop up the economy, and reduction in tax revenue.
1. Russia's reported GDP is very likely being manipulated...there's all the incentives to and stopping the release of several important pieces of data would also suggest they are trying to hide data in order to manipulate GDP numbers.
2. GDP is being 'supported' in a large way by the heavy increase in government spending for the war. This is not healthy GDP growth, it's mostly an illusion. It's buildings things to destroy those things and those products add no value to people. Several estimates indicate Russia has spent over $100 billion on the war so far. That is about 30% of annual government spending pre-war. Some estimates say it's about 3% of GDP increase from war spending.
3. Russia got a boost in 2022 simply from re-opening of the economy post Covid.
4. Some of the GDP is being replaced with lower quality goods and services.
5. Government budget deficit is rising fast and not sustainable for long time. High spending on the war and trying to prop up the economy while tax revenues are down and half their currency reserves are frozen.
The way I see it, Russia would get 4-5% growth in an alternate world where it doesn't invade. Russia it'self reported about -2% GDP growth (decline). Given item 1, it's likely approximately 2%pts lower. That gets us to 4%. That puts Russia at 8-9%pts lower than what it would have had if it didn't invade. But another 3% is being spent on things that don't add value which means the effect is probably more around 11-12%pts drop in GDP.
All of that as government is having major issues with budget deficits. If this continues another 2 years, the Russian population will no longer be able to say "the sanctions aren't having an effect". I don't see how Russia can maintain this economy for more than a couple of years.
Another excellent and intellectually honest video. I was pleasantly surprised by the Vlad Vexler shout out! He has been one of my favourite channels when it comes to gaining a better understanding of the Russian political situation. Maybe the internet isn't doomed to be a hub for bad media diets after all.
Find better sources. I'd suggest learning some basic media literacy skills and critical thinking.
How did the two researchers get hold of the data set from the Union Pay system(credit card), Yandex(search engine), now that Russia is not connected to the SWIFT system or use Google anymore for example?
The secret ingredient is crime
What does Google have to do with anything?
Big fan thanks a lot for the videos
The title seems a bit clickbaity :)
While I appreciate the many disclaimers and limitations of data sources where they are due, the sudden switch from "the effects of sanctions AND war efforts" to "the effects of sanctions" was somewhat unreasonable. I'm not arguing the -7.4%, but rather the credit given to the sanctions. For all we know, the impact of sanctions could be anywhere in between 0 and the -7.4%. And while it is highly unlikely, purely for the purpose of theoretical entertainment - it could be the case that the sanctions actually had a positive impact of 7.6%, while the switch to a war economy, emigration and other war related issues had an impact of -15%
An economist has two jobs: making predictions and explaining why they didn't materialize
Great video. I know of some of these statistics (like the industrial pollution one) but had not seen all and had not really put them into this context before. As you said, political context is important though. I would personally not think Prigozhin's personal bank is the single catalyst, but it likely played a role. I think what we are seeing is a increasingly squeezed political system. Putin, his military commanders and the oligarchs are squeezed from sanctions, from supporters because of few results in Ukraine and from internally as they are fighting over who gets parts of the dwindling money in their system.
I think the mutiny was some combination of all those factors, still, it's good to know that the sanctions had an impact.
They haven't really had much of an impact. Take it from someone actually living in Russia 🤣
@@mrmuffins4224 sure botsky, suuure, now, go be a good peasant and go kiss Lenin's hand
@@MonsieurDeVeteran Cope harder 🤣 we still have all the Western brands, too! They never left! 😝
@@mrmuffins4224ruskies coping on UA-cam never stops being funny
This is the first video of yours I have ever seen, and wow! Your presentation is so well done, even though I am not even slightly interested in the subject, I am watching intently. You are incredibly intelligent and I think I am impressed by your very healthy pragmatic considerations.
Bedankt for the concise succinct video. From an aussie born in Amsterdam. Good video.
Great video. This video is quite enlightening the macro situation of Russia Federation after few, if not absence, of credible state's economic data.
Is there any way to tell the difference between economic contraction due to sanctions from a contraction that happens after the invasion, whether or not it is a consequence of the invasion, and is not a result of sanctions?
I think Money&Macro avoided this point so as not to muddy up his explanation of the counterfactual. I would imagine measuring this difference is even harder. Maybe you can try to make historical comparisons or something. Very unreliable.
Thank you for a good, easy to follow explanation.
Very good video. Thank you. Very clear.
Historically, not paying mercenaries has never ended well
This guy is great. I remember a macro econ professor saying economics and the 'invisible hand of the market' is valid because people act in their own best interest.
I raised my hand and asked, "What about credit cards? And why does advertising work?"
Credit cards can be in a persons best interest, all they are is a way to loan/borrow money and the vast majority of loans are taken out to pay for something you cant afford upfront or for some form of investment. Credit cards used by the working and middle classes make a lot of money for banks but they pale in comparison to the loans given to big businesses or to governments who are both using those loans primarily to invest in major purchases or to pay for some massive thing they lack the liquid capital to use.
Advertising works by raising awareness for the product or service and by showing some benefit to the consumer. Quiet often they're trying to show you their product/service is cheaper and/or better than the competition, they're trying to show how it's in your interest to buy their product. They may say it's on sale, that its recommended by some authority (like "9 out of 10 dentists agree"), or they'll just try to show how amazing it is like the idealized fake food they use in restaurant ads.
Also the "invisible hand of the market" does describe how individuals will act in their own self interest it's more about the market effects as a whole rather than strictly describing the behavior of an individual. It more describes the free market as a whole.
I didn't get the point of credit cards. What is the connection between credit cards and best interest?
@@kriptoniteXDi assume the point about credit cards is that people sometimes use them sub-optimally, incurring debt without gaining enough to warrant it.
Whoa dude! Love the science education/explanation. Completely underutilized in mainstream reporting... Keep it up!
Personally I think the recent insurrection is a political play rather than an economic one and reviewing economics is a moot point. The benefits of consolidating Wagner into the Russian government is very easy to see because it expands its influence into a great many nations Wagner has strong ties in. The oil industry, which Wagner has its hands pretty involved in (Syria, Central African Rep.), is one Russia is not historically afraid to nationalize. So when the Wagner group started being used as a battering ram to take casualties and then had their ammo taken away, well, it’s not a surprise the fate of the group today is one being swallowed by Russia. And what can the WG do to stop it? It needs the Russian government to exist and survive.
The whole reason they've been using Wagner is because it's technically separate from the army, that way they dont have to disclose casualties and have some limited deniability for atrocities or crimes committed by Wagner. Wagner does have business ties all over but those were mostly Russian operations, like in Sudan they aided the president after he requested aid from Putin and in the Central African Republic they were guided by a Russian government advisor helping the CAR president. In Syria they've often been used to supplement the existing overt and covert Russian units, used mainly in areas where Russia wants to claim deniability or to commit war crimes like clearing neighborhoods by destroying the buildings with civilians still inside. They're already effectively a special forces unit what with the military support coupled with limited autonomy, but by keeping them _technically_ a PMC it not only keeps them more under Putins control than the military's (Prigozhin owes his position and survival to Putin personally), it also bypasses red tape like having to report casualtieis to the military or risk having the public find out, as well as bypassing some government oversight, it also gives them the deniability. Nationalizing the company removes what little deniability they have and eliminates most of the reasons to use the PMC especially seeing as they're not even particularly effective a fighting force after losing so many men and being forced to take raw conscripts.
This is the dumbest take I’ve seen yet that completely lacks any understanding of what Wagner has been to Russia before now.
But given Wagner has by all accounts doing the states bidding since 2014 what was the impetus for Russia to absorb Wagner now? That very well might be economic as well as political.
well Russia always had influence because of Wagner, its just that Wagner is not trustworthy anymore
Great video! I definitely think that the Wagner incident is multi faceted but this economic analysis was superb.
Summary: are sanctions impacting Russia’s economy? Yes. How much are sanctions impacting Russia’s economy? Yes.
every action has the reaction, Just look at EU economy after sanctioning Russia, it's going down hill.
@@TheBikeOnTheMoon if only ruzzians weren't nazzies...
@@lokilaufeyson7035*Ukrainians there fixed it for ya
Bedankt voor het delen 👍👍👍💯
Did some researchers use light at night to estimate GDP? This approach seems promising as well.
I really enjoyed your analysis. The calculus of corruption changes dramatically when there's nothing left to steal. I think a lot of Russia's elites are going to be in turmoil as the sanctions bite and Russia's economy shrinks. It would be interesting as a follow up video if you analyzed the economics of corruption and how economic growth or decline affects corruption and corrupt governments, especially as regards Russia.
Hi, how about making a video about worker cooperatives? About the good and the bad sides.
I don't necessarily know if it was about sanctions but it was definitely about money. The Russian government has not been paying soldiers what they agreed. It must have sucked for Shoigu to send millions of dollars to Wagner so they could prance about in night vision goggles. Meanwhile his own soldiers couldn't afford boots.
Man, some russian marine group has more equipments that anyone in the world.
So it depending of who exactly are you talking about, but so far civilian support with mostly with small drones and sniper rifles, because in everything else supportin from MoD is ok.
@@trololoev he is bullsht man, dont worry, we know Russia is strong. He say that to pray for his unicorn angel to help Ukro nazi
@@trololoev some not all.
Reportedly, the reason why Russian soldiers didn't stop Wagner's advance from Ukraine to Rostov-on-don to Moscow was that they were underpaid and underequipped than they're Wagner counterparts.
Essentially, "I don't get paid enough for this shit."
@@kingace6186 whatever the Russian military do or dont do, I assure you my speculative turnip friend, is what President Putin authorized.
«Вечно пьяный, до оскотинения, завистлив, жаден, злобен, туп. Миф о русской бане мгновенно рассеивается после того как пройдёшь мимо типичного русского. Запах перегара и давно не стираных порток отвратителен сам по себе, но к нему примешивается ещё и запах кислой капусты и прокисших щей, до которых он, русский человек, большой охотник. Любимое занятие - лежание на печи и мечты о лучшей жизни. Эти мечты постоянно подогреваются правящей верхушкой. К наукам не склонен, по причине своего отупения в следствии неумеренного потребления браги. Брагу потребляет по причине того, что не может выгнать самогона. Не хватает терпения. Из разнообразия языков, на матушке Земля, в совершенстве владеет одним - матерным. Физически вроде и здоров, но в то же время страдает манией величия и шовинизма. Причисляет себя к третьему Риму, а являет собой вторую Содом и Гоморру. Агрессивен. Очень агрессивен. Что подтверждается его постоянным захватом чужих земель, при этом утверждается там как хозяин и всё вокруг считает своим. Описание портрета русского можно дополнять бесконечно, однако это будет не столько утомительно читателям сколь противно. Увы».
Максим Горький, «Собирательный образ русского человека»
Это всё классно, но зачем ты хохла описал? Ты когда в России последний раз бывал? Или у тебя такой круг общения, с перегаром и обосранные?
Some of the gaps in sanctions are being sealed, Russian oil sales are still happening. The STS (ship to ship) at sea oil transfers are being curtailed by banning the ships involved from docking in harbours. Some ecological restrictions are starting to bite after the Malaysian zone tanker fire.
Nice work guys. A friendly pointer: At 3:55, the chart X-axis labeling is wrong, all values are the same.
Prigozhin rebelling because he and his troupe not being paid enough doesn’t make a lot of sense towards explaining his behavior. If mercenaries aren’t being paid enough, the typical responses are 1. To stop fighting, withdraw and move on, or threaten to do so until they get more money 2. Start contacting the enemy and shopping around for their deals.
That doesn’t align well with the demands and statements put out by Prigozhin who demanded the leaders of the military be replaced, stated multiple times they were going back to the frontlines and were doing what they could to not impact the frontline, etc. Obviously Prigozhin could be and is likely lying about some of this (his threats about Russia having a new president indicates he probably was planning for the likelihood of taking out Putin well in advance), but if Putin had followed through on the official demands Prigozhin would have had very little room to negotiate for money behind closed doors.
The fact that we know Wagner was officially to be rolled into the military by July 1st with Prigozhin no longer being independent, with him being the biggest and most vocal critic of the Russian government within Russia, that seems more like the existential risk to his life and influence that would cause him and his troupe to march of Moscow.
The reduction of pollution is a serious sign of economic crash when they are trying to produce large amounts of new military hardware. High energy use.
Population or pollution ?
@@christopherbate6248 both but specifically coal-burning is required to produce large amounts of Steel to produce tanks and other equipment.
In a kleptocracy, there are no state or national interests. There are only individual oligarch interests.
Nice POV and perspective.
Nice work, both in couching analysis framework and the issues regarding accuracy. However you had me as soon as you mentioned Suomen Pankki.
I'm strongly inclined to agree with your assertion.
Thanks
I'm following William Spaniel, from (youtube.com/@Gametheory101) and connecting from the arguments of how autocratic governments work (The dictator's handbook from Smith and Bueno de Mesquina)... and your analysis makes total sense.
By shrinking the treasury, the fight for the control of those resources becomes harder to manage. This is the economical aspect of it. We should expect more revelions like this, as long as the west emphasizes that sanctions are "temporary". Because a contester to power can just withdraw from Ukraine, not suffer the political cost and profit from the growth of the economy (and enlargement of the treasury) to "buy" more loyalty that currently Putin is able to afford
If true, than Kadyrov is likely already under scrutiny. His fighters are personally loyal to him, he's regularly paid off by Moscow, & is a profligate spender. Especially on his men, which he's already known to have blinged out with stockpiled western & chinese tacticool kit.
Love your very humble explanation. It doesn't scratch the itch we all have for certainty but it is much more intellectually honest.
It also reminds me of an old joke. If you laid all the economists in the world head to foot, they would never come to a conclusion.
each estimate has its own error ranges, they are distributions, not point estimates
taking the average of estimates will always skew towards the most extreme estimates, effectively giving them a higher weighting to the final answer just for being extreme
a bayesian update might be more appropriate for generating posterior probability distributions
in this average case I think you're effectively assuming a uniform distribution: all values are equally plausible. but that's not the output of each paper
a normal, lognormal, or student-t distribution is probably closer to reality, which would be less sensitive to outliers
BRAVO! VERY INSIGHTFUL!
Wagner lost ~25k people in a year and had 25-50k before the mutiny.
1 billion dollars for 50-75k people does not split well (~13k-20k a year in pay/incentives on average)
Maybe, but let's not forget that Wagner has major concessions in gold, diamond, and mineral mines in Africa which generates large amounts of revenue as well.
Wagner has other sources of revenue (African gold and Diamant mines), and for Russia, this is a good wage.
If we consider that only the survivors are paid anything, and taking the average of ~37000 men, each guy gets about ~$27000 a year or $3 an hour, assuming they don't pay anything on equipment.
Were the freed convicts paid? I mean with money and not just with their freedom? I'm not sure about that.
We'd need to know the cost of living in the places where the soldiers came from, to know what is a good wage to them.
"The day we took hostages, we became mercenaries. And mercenaries get paid!" -Captain Frye "The Rock" 1996
This was a very enlightening video. Good point about how estimates are generated.
Wow, shouting out Vlad, well done. I love it when my favourite youtube channels acknowledge each other!
Albeit true, there is a bigger reason the cash payments were not happening and it is because Wagner and Russian MoD head Shoigu were in a shadow war with each other. Wagner was going to be turned into a part of the Russian Army as well and their command put under Shoigu, which Prig would not allow. Basically it is two generals fighting over control on the army as well as how the war will go.
That's very bold assumption. Sanctions make things harder, but can't destroy economy. Far poorer countries like Iran and North Korea learned to bypass them, and I'm sure Russians will find a way)
As for conflict Wagner vs MOD you completely missed the point.
Right, but Iran and North Korea absolutely wouldn't be able to fund the kind of war Russia is currently fighting.
It already has found many ways to get by them
I saw you have other video "Sanctions, 1 Year Later" created just 4 months ago. It's interesting how quickly your opinion or rather the situation has changed. :)
cool analysis ❤
I wish your discussion about the difficulty in creating absolute certain TRUTH in cases where one has bad data, flawed models, no counterfactuals, and various confounding variables should be presented to every adult human being at least one per day. Many people are just too stupid to ever understand, but even if just few more did understand, then I think the world would be in a much better position to solve problems. Thank you.
An economist in an interview to dw news said Russia isn't making any money by selling oil, what do you think?
😂🤡
I think Germany isn't making any money because it doesn't have any Russian oil (or gas) and they can thank the Americans and the puppet government they put in place for that! 😂🎉😅
What a pathetic vassal state Germany is, that the Americans blow up your gas lifeline and there's not even a murmur of protest!
They are making money but way less than half from before.
They made money sure. But the buyer also lowballing the price and milking Russia for all it worth in oil while doing it.
Idk why, but all west name Russia a petrol station, like 100% of budget is by oil. But from what I found, it’s around 20 or 30 % (varies from source)
Excelente enfoque, como dices al final siempre se tiene que tener en cuenta la influencia de la política en el modelo, yo considero que solamente con las consideraciones económicas planteadas en el vídeo, se puede justificar la evolución de los hechos con Wagner, es simplemente insuficiente, es más, me atrevería a decir que el factor económico no fue tan decisivo, aunque puedo haber sido un habilitador del mismo.
Interesting take on this. I haven't seen a single news outlet considering the lack of payments when discussing this Wagner rebellion. Nice work
There is another thing reducing russia's GDP; workforce. In 2021 the workforce was 73,368,000 who created a GDP of 1.779 billion $; i.e. 22,247.6 $/nose. russia lost 200k kia and 600k WiA, 50k were thrown into prison for protesting, and 800k fled the country. Though many of those to replace the war losses weren't working, a 2% loss of workforce will reduce GDP accordingly.
Wait Russia lost 200k Kia?? I thought it was around 50,000-70,000 ish kia and the rest wounded, for a total of about 200,000-300,000 casualties?
Are you seriously believing all these ridiculous numbers
@@dirckthedork-knight1201 The 800k refugees came from the respective UN- organisation, the 50 k came from a human rights watch organisation, for the 200k KiA I developed my own way to figure out (with help of Oryx) and the 3 WiA for each KiA has been a constant for all wars since the Russo- Japanese war of 1905 and was confirmed by a russian separatist leader. You can question my method of calculating the KiA, but then you really should come up with s/th better.
It's always about money. The source of all the worlds problems.
Money is essential for large scale exchange of goods. At least it was, pre A1. It should now be possible to develop new forms of distribution, not profit based.
Excellent explanation!!!
I think this analysis was fascinating. As always❤
Sanctions are just one more failed weapon used by the US against its enemies. Wagner's importance decreased as the Russian military operation grew to the desired level to take up the work load from the PMC. As much as the British and Americans would like to convince themselves to the opposite, their own economies are in a perilous situation, while the Russian economy is growing.
Wow, lay off the wacky baccy! Half your best young innovators and tech savvy left the minute Ukraine was invaded, at least a quarter jumped before the first mobilisation. You can't grow without intelligent staff and company set ups. Your death rate is below the birth rate. Your people are unable to grow without consumers.
overall I'd say Ukrainian war efforts have costed us WAY more than western sanctions
most companies when pulling out of Russia simply sold their assets to local companies and other international companies willing to stay
without disrupting the production in any way
Good to see someone say "us" with reference to the RF ... And to followup with a relevant observation. I wish bad things on the RF, but you remind me not to get too carried away.
I heard the Chinese have simply replaced many western firms. Like Alibaba replacing Amazon.
@@Iamkcs2c did a thought ever occur to you that I may be living here?
I dont support the invasion of Ukraine and never really supported Putin
but I'm still Russian
@@ArawnOfAnnwn but chinese companies are charging a fortune because they now have a monopoly into the Russian market with many essential products..
Help to Ukraine compared to the impact of the Russian imperial war on the global economy is literally peanuts. LE: Now I understand you are Russian and against the war which changes the perspective, agreed with OP.
Could you do a video on circular economy or buying second hand clothing?
Yo, thanks for the Vlad Vexler shoutout! I think its important to stay in our lanes, and point people to places where they can get a better take/information on an issue.
There is absolutely no way Russia couln't afford to pay Wagner their salaries, 1 billion is very little in this context. I believe there were other factors.
Interesting video though, especially the part with satellites collecting industry data from space :D
Russia is running a deficit of 26 to 40 billion dollars *per month*. So yea... they are having money problems.
Yep, might not have been just a billion
@@macmcleod1188you got a source on that?
lulz cool story
@@skp8748 It's russian published economic data and available thru an easy google for russian deficit spending from many sources.
Since it's russian published data- it's an underestimate.
The objective was not to cut costs, but to bring the various PMCs, under the MOD umbrella for better unified control. Wagner was the only one which refused to sign the contract and from August they would not receive any funding. Prighozin saw this as a threat to his earnings as well as looming loss of control of his own men, especially as he was recently even banned from recruiting convicts, which made up the bulk of his forces fighting in Ukraine. It was sheer loss of monetary gains & loss of control of his own militia that made him the sworn enemy of the generals whom he regarded as the architect of this policy to undermine him financially & militarily. Putin was never challenged, but this rivalry did create a huge PR debacle for him and since perceptions and optics from the exoskeleton of political power, that visage was certainly tarnished, even though his authority was not diminished in any way (except in the wishful thinking of his adversaries (and even some allies) in govts and media which were hostile to him) and is expectedly being flogged for all it is worth as a propaganda weapon.
It was a cost cutting measure by Ruzzian military, the fact is that they had to pay Wanger, but they do not pay Ruzzian soldiers.
@@chrissmith2114 if the contracts are issued by MoD the pay should be similar. It's in Russia's interest to have a small army of high skill, high motivation and highly paid soldiers which are superior to mobilized men.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Try telling Ruzzian conscripts and their families that they got paid.... If Wagner did not get paid they go home, If Ruzzian soldiers not paid what do they do - complain to Putin ?
@@chrissmith2114 The main objective was to bring all PMCs under the MoD's command. There is no clarity if those contracts only applied to the chain of command or also reduced payments to those contractors who signed up. All PMCs signed up, except the Wagner Group. Apparently (not confirmed) under the new contracts, the fighters would be directly paid by the MoD. Wagner paid a fraction of the money assigned for wages, especially to their convict cadres in Ukraine, who only received fighter wages after their 6 month term expired after which they were free men who could return home or join as regular fighters. Most stayed on.
Prighozin did not like the terms of the contract and believed this was dine deliberately by the generals to undermine his financial profits and military clout. So cost reduction was not the primary aim of the policy, but a welcome and beneficial result of the new policy.
Note that the Russian Forex reserves are climbing, despite the war expenditure. So a few millions more to the PMCs, were not really a cause of concern for the MoD. But their defiance certainly was.
@@chrissmith2114Cringe speech cringe beliefs
Really, really interesting analysis
Thanks for the insightful research. Can you please do a video on the effects of sanctions on Russia on other countries. I believe that will help bring more insight into how damaging sanctions have been on Russia vis-a-vis other countries. Also, I bring this up with due respect, but a decimal number such as 7.37 is read as Seven point Three Seven, i.e. digits after the decimal are read separately.
While for clarity, 7.37 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 read as "seven point three seven", it is often read as "seven point thirty-seven", at least in some varieties of English.
@@justinsayin3979 I don't think variations in the language has anything to do with it as it is a matter of mathematics. Language here is only a tool to read. Reading it as "thirty seven" is incorrect because "thirty seven" implies a numerical value of 37 which is obviously greater than "0.37" due to the decimal.
-Ваня, пора на войну
-А с кем воюем?
-С фашистами 🇷🇺.
- Отлично! А против кого?"
против xixлов
@@wilsonball7171 Сползает по крыше, старик кривоногов, пронырливый наш кэ-гэ-бист... Ползёт злато-ёршик, мокры его брюки, он стар и желает в сортир...
It's almost laughable how far from reality most of these stories about the Wagner incident are. The beef seems to be between Dmitri Utkin, the founder of Wagner, and Shoigu. Utkin, a former GRU (military intelligence) officer who Prigozhin refers to as his commander, is the one calling the shots. Prigozhin is just doing what he's told. If he ran off like a loose cannon and did this on his own over money, Putin would never have let him just relocate to Belarus, he would be long dead by now. Even if you don't know the back story, common sense should tell you there's more to the story than what is being reported in western media.
One YT video speculates that Prig is a public hero enough that Putin’s not going to kill him off until a few months ago. I guess we’ll find out in a few months! :/
Isn’t all media western? Who is watching Russian media? It’s banned everywhere
All this really shows is that economics done in a western fashion is about as useful as reading entrails.
Sanctions did not hit Russia very hard (once Swift had been replaced) because it is a mega-mixed economy crammed full of natural resources wanted by everyone. Russia could feed and water vast areas of Asia, the middle east and Africa with good old fashioned engineering so staples get from its vast lands to customers.
Anyone studying Russia will be aware that it had already become a Eurasian economy when it, sensibly and simply, weighed up western and eastern market health and likely futures. Few realize that gas/oil products to Germany etc were from its surplus at a few places in its western regions. Russia clearly anticipated lessening trade with Europe when its containerized gas and different grades of oil production dwarfed what was sold to especially Germany.
Re cereals, while traditionally produce from the chernozem belt in 3 countries (but with Russian consortia owning approx 40% of Ukraine's production) traveled by sea to southern Europe we saw that the mined Black Sea obliged Russia and Kazakhstan to explore different routes. While over half of production still went via Turkey in coast-hugging southern routes we also saw surprisingly efficient using rail and accessing deeper seas in the Gulf and Arabian Sea and huge ships which were probably Chinese or were Russian and adapted from grain products.
The context of this trade brings us close to China's BRI plans, a Caspian Leg, Turkey being important still but Iran being vital.
Russia has also made more Arctic progress than is typically reported and its list of customers not counting China [the "near Arctic partner"] is impressive. Finished goods from Asia use this route and can receive additional cargo from the 3 'gigaports' Russia opened in the last 7 years.
Picking you up on one point, automobile production was indeed down but Russia was a never much in that arena. Have you not wondered how come Chinese EVs are now flooding the European and N.American markets and how this was timed?
It is worthwhile you economists having a close look at Russian hybrid military/civilian aviation and report what you find.
Thanks for your work
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