For more on safety & simulation of Japan’s Largest Earthquakes, I made a video with the Tokyo fire department: ua-cam.com/video/o1W_znpGB_o/v-deo.htmlsi=3Yz5on_fm_BP6laM Also, the Nankai & Sagami Trough are under the Megaquake warning, this is the Philippine Sea Plate. Tohoku is on the Pacific Plate. Let’s hope tonight’s smartphone warning ⚠️ at 19:57 is not the start of something big. That scared everyone in Tokyo tonight, 8 hours after this stream 😅
Hey John! People were asking for my specific disaster list in a comment I left, but it seems like UA-cam keeps deleting them. Is there anything that can be done about that? Thanks in advance and thank you for this stream!
My wife and I live in Osaka and we thankfully made a disaster kit as soon as I moved to Japan. I was living at the epicenter during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in LA, so this preparation has been ingrained in me. Thank you for the update, John!
Good luck to you!! I was in that same earthquake as a kid in 94 only one that's actually scared me I'm now living in Bakersfield and we had a 6 yesterday followed up by a 4 yesterday I was wondering wtf a mega would be. I immediately thought about Japan and then I heard the news. Sending good vibes❤
The 1 week observation is based on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Because 1 week earlier before that historic event, there was a strong quake near the region. But at the time no one paid any attention to it.
It was actually two days prior, March 9th that there was a M7.3 precursor quake. There were four in the M6 range between March 9th and 11th, before the big one hit.
Your advice is valuable and on point. I was here in Alaska for the Mega Earthquake of 1964 with a magnitude of 9.2. We have had three 7.9 quakes ( 2002, 2014 and 2018) here in Alaska in recent years. When we were in Nikko earlier this year we were awakened by an earthquake there. Each time since 1964 I ask myself as the earth begins to shake, is this going to be The Big One again? Thanks for reminding how important it is to have a prearranged meeting place and doing what one can to prepare ahead.
According to the USGS “"How Much Bigger…?" Calculator” M9.2 is 89.125 stronger (energy release) and 19.952 bigger than M7.9 - that is a massive difference that is very hard for people to imagine when they see the magnitude numbers. While I think that expressing the power of an earthquake in magnitude is better than something like the Richter scale and more precise than the Japanese Shindo scale, the problem is that most people don’t understand the logarithmic nature of magnitude and only see the digits, thinking they are just an increment stronger/weaker.
My best friend said during the 2011 earthquake her husband ran for their new big screen TV to keep it from falling - his only immediate worry. Now we can laugh about it.
lmaoo my mother did the same during a strong earyhquake in '77. Literally the whole family was outside the house and when they realised she was missing it was because she was trying to save the TV. Buuuuuut, she was a kid so... 😂
Thank you for this. Been talking about this earthquake thing with my family for some time now. We do know where to go, each of us have our own emergency bag with essential stuff in it etc. ready by the shoe closet next to the front door and all lol, but I will still show this video to my wife and daughter just to let them re-realize how serious this is. And surely will share this one to others. Again, appreciate this video. Arigatou.
"A magnitude 8 or 9, you're gonna get a magnitude 7 in Tokyo." Magnitude is a measure of the strength of the earthquake at its epicenter. You can’t have different magnitudes for the same earthquake in different places. It is singular. What you’re thinking about is shindo, which is a local measure of the strength of shaking. For reference, the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake was a magnitude 9.0, which was felt at the highest shindo value (7) only in Kurihara City of Miyagi prefecture. The surrounding prefectures experienced it in the upper and lower 6s, and then in the 5s and lower beyond that, (Tokyo was in the 5s). For this potential earthquake, Tokyo itself has not been issued an alert besides some pre-evacuation notices in just a few areas (I believe in the areas that would be susceptible to a tsunami, which are few in Tokyo due to its geographical location). We will almost certainly feel the earthquake though. But the more serious warnings are mostly for prefectures from Shizuoka westward.
Im curious why no advisory has been issued against climbing Mt Fuji, given that its last eruption occurred 49 days after the 1707 Nankai Trough quake. (That quake is the 2nd strongest in Japan, after the 2011 one)
@@arkynkueh "49 days after" might be a significant factor. Given the chance isn't confirmed even in the event of an large earthquake (which itself is not even that high of a probability right now, merely heightened), I would assume they will wait until *after* an earthquake to make that advisory, unless the mountain itself starts showing signs of activity.
I also read today that Tokyo is not included. They said it is from Shizuoka up to Kyushu. Of course Tokyo will also feel it, but the epic center will be between Shizuoka and Kyushu.(According to what I heard in the japanese news). But anyway, nobody can predict if, when and where a mega quake will happen. Don`t live in fear. Just be prepared with an earthquake emergency bag in your house. That is anyway all that you can do. When an earthquake occured when you are outside of your house, your emergency bag doesn`t help anything. Therefore, don`t live in fear. Nobody knows if, when and where it will happen. Additional there are so many other things in the world that already take the peace out of our lives, like the Russian Agressor War which brings us daily closer to WW3, then diseases from Viruses, and so on... If we should start now to live also in fear from a nature disaster, which nobody knows if, when and where it will happen, that will take the rest of peace, that we still have, from our lives.
My wife would disagree with you 😅 they’re including the Megaquake in Tokyo too. The Nankai Trough … I’ll do another stream to get into more details tomorrow. We just had a scary smartphone alarm at 19:57, Shindo 5 in Kanagawa near Tokyo. So ….
as Jon said, this is to keep people INFORMED! so you don't panic if it happens when you are in JAPAN (small ones, not the mega one). And you can not live your life worrying about an event that you cant control which might happens in 100-200 years. I have heard about a long overdued Mega quake for California since I was born, I'm now 42 years old and nothing had happened yet. All the important tech companies are still right there in California. Be informed! be prepared, not panic! stay safe Jon
Really dude? 🤨 Not canceling a trip, just to support the local economy? You definitely win the "Most Pretentious and Sanctimonious Comment of the Month" award 🏆
Hey my brother. Thank goodness all is well there and you and the family are okay. I can only imagine how frightened everyone must be especially after the last major disaster by the tsunami. Can't take anything like that for granted. Always best to be safe than sorry and to make sure you have a set plan of what to do and where to go when you're out livestreaming. That will provide peace of mind for your family knowing there's a plan of action. Please keep safe my bro. Love and Aloha to you and the Daub family.
I was a kid in San Francisco when the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake happened. I remembered my grandparents taking me outside to sit in the car for several hours because they were afraid their old house was going to collapse.
Here in California, we've been having a lot of magnitude 5 earthquakes the past week, which is rather surprising. It's been very quiet here for the last few years. Interesting timing that this nees has dropped as well :O
Just another quick correction (because I think it is important to be precise in these matters): Tokyo is not located on the same plate as the Nankai Trough. It is actually located on the same plate as Tōhoku (North American Plate), at the edge of it, neighboring the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. To the East, off the coast there is the Pacific Plate (the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 occurred at its edge).
I’m not a seismologist but the Nankai trough is about Mt Fuji converging with the Sagami Trough. They’re kind of connected here. Tohoku is on the Japan Trench, The PACIFIC PLATE. Tokyo is the Philippine Sea Plate is we’re getting technical. But I had to look this up. If the Nankai Trough had a megaquake, Tokyo will be impacted, yes. It will certainly impact the Sagami Trough. The plate goes under Tokyo Bay which is the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake. The megaquake warning for Tokyo was announced about 10-12 years ago with the 70% chance in next 30 years. Let’s hope that tonight’s smartphone alarm at 19:57 for a quake in Kanagawa isn’t the start .. so scary tonight, 8 hours after this stream.
@@onlyinjapanGO I agree, John. As always, the alert scared me. I just started having dinner. And I thought the same, like “This is it. It begins!”. I know why I left my phones downstairs last night. It is the worst almost getting a heart attack, every time these alarms go off in the middle of the night. As for what you wrote about the tectonic plates, I hope you didn’t take my comment wrong. I know that during livestreams, it is difficult to check quickly. What I wanted to say is that Tokyo is in a very special “sandwich” position. Like the folks in the past really were looking for the most dangerous place to move their capital to. 😂 The Kantō plain apparently owes its geography to this special geological situation as well. Surely great for farming, but in terms of earthquakes… well, not so much.
Slow slip is completely different to a normal earthquake. Slow slip events happen deep within the subduction zone, below where the plates are locked/stuck. So they observed a slow slip event elsewhere on the Nankai Trough. Meaning the M7.1 triggered slow slip on other segments of the Nankai Trough. Also the 2011 Tohoku earthquake WAS a megaquake, it was a M9/9.1. Nankai Trough last experienced a megaquake in 1854, with 2x M8.4, 2 days in a row.
Am in Yokohama at the moment visiting family - Very scary as my gran is old and it is very hot, if power goes out and air con/ cooling isn't available and buildings are damaged it could be bad. Stay safe John
@@FleshEatingBeagle swamp coolers don't really do anything in an environment that's humid already. Like an island in the pacific ocean, for instance. They would be somewhat effective if the air were relatively dry... but good luck with that.
Our friendly (for now) robot friend ChatGPT told me that the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake is not connected to the Nankai trough and was due to a different subduction zone. The last mega-earthquake connected to the Nankai trough according to Wikipedia is the 1946 Nankaidou earthquake from which we are 78 years away (outside the 90-200 years period, which of course is just an approximation). The main concern from what I understand is that the Nankai trough which is split into 5 rupture zones (A-E) starting from off Shikoku (A) and reaching Shizuoka prefecture (E), hasn't erupted at the E section (the closest one in Tokyo) since 1854 (170 years ago), so an earthquake is theoretically most probable there. However, a mega-earthquake at C-D might be felt strongly in Tokyo but the main destruction will be in Nagoya and Shizuoka and quite little, if any, in Tokyo depending on the distance from the epicenter. The E section is the dangerous one for Tokyo (but even more for Shizuoka and Yokohama). PS. Japan Sinks was a bad book. I bought into the hype and got it, but it was boring, unscientific, unrealistic, outdated. 3 out of 10.
Thank you for your always informative videos. I have learned a lot about quakes from you! Thinking of you and your family, and the many Japanese friends I’ve made over the years. I am hoping nothing comes to pass.
My wife sent a message saying that she wanted to buy a portable toilet, sleeping bags, and water. We live in rural Kagoshima on the city side. I understand the reaction but I'm pretty sure that her mom called ten times to push her to get ready. We already have water and I don't want to add another thing to our storage.
Same here. We got the disposable toilet for disasters, collapsible 10L water containers … we have a good kit already. But I can’t say no because I know I could be wrong 🤷🏻♂️ and we may need it! Gosh, we need to move, we’re out of space too!
I left Kanazawa-shi a week before the Noto earthquake happened on new years day & experienced several scale 1 to 3 tremors in Tokyo during my previous trips. I guess its part of experiencing life in Japan.
For those unfamiliar with earthquakes and how magnitude works, there is a very useful tool from the US Geological Survey (USGS) called "How Much Bigger…?" Calculator to help people compare magnitudes and understand how much bigger and stronger they are in comparison.
I live in Shunan here in Yamaguchi. Didn't feel anything here but it was depicted as a M2. Were you here in 2001 when there was a massive quake near Hiroshima? That was scary!
i’m from Guam and experienced an 8.1 earthquake so anything below that doesn’t scare me. but experiencing a small shallow quake in Japan is a different story. definitely i need to get myself prepared
Thank you for this informative stream, John! You explained everything really well! Praying for you guys and everyone in Japan 🙏💖 it made me emotional when you talked about your experience in the great tohoku earthquake and how you kept little Kiki safe in your pocket 😭 you’re a good person, John.
07:25 - I also suspect that the government wants to avoid the same errors and mistakes made in managing the earthquake and tsunami disaster of 2011 in Tohoku, and they are, like you always said about the Japanese, they avoid taking risks, so, I think that they don't want to let their guard down because a few days before the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, there was a shindo 6 earthquake in Tohoku, so the experts are in full alert because of that
Thank you for this video. Information is power. The more informed we are, the better prepared we can be. Ignorance is not bliss. Praying that it is not as big as scientists are predicting. 🙏
i was on a japanese news website and they quantified the odds as 1 in 200. They went back into history and counted over 1300 quakes of a large magnitude which were followed soon afterwards with 6 mega quakes. I lived on a volcano for 15 years and reinforced my post and pier house for quakes as high as 6.9 and it survived. I moved to osaka this year just in time for this. oh joy
Hi John, I'm happy to hear you and your family are safe🙏 We are supposed to arrive for travel at the end of September. This our 3rd time we're traveling to Japan.
Jon, we are visiting Tokyo and the suburban in about a month. As a tourist, how should we prepare ourselves. We are not going to get the emergency supplies as the local and if it happens when we are in the high rise hotel. What should we do? Please advise so that I can prepare. Thanks.
I’ll address this in a follow up video and try to be exact. There’s not much. Know the evac route from the hotel and it’s good to have your day bag packed when you go to bed … in case you need to hurry out. Not a must but little things can make an impact. I’ll try to make a better list.
There was a massive quake in March 2001 off the coast of Hiroshima. It registered as M8.2 and was felt as far away as South Korea. There were many smaller quakes leading up to it from October 2000.
We have multi-generational family members living in Miyazaki. They say this was a very scary quake, and it felt stronger than any they can remember. Fortunately, no one was injured and they have not experienced significant property damage. The Japanese are more prepared for earthquakes than anyone else on this planet. We still feel concerned for their safety, but do take some solace in knowing that they are better prepared than in any other country.
I'm really hoping that Japan can avoid a mega quake although that could be my wishful thinking, as we know it's going to happen eventually. Just in Japan in July and it was the first time that I did not feel any earth shaking whilst I was there. Have on the last two prior trips. Take care.
I live in an old building (built in 80’s) in Nakano ward and I’m scared🥲 not sure what to do as moving anytime soon isn’t an option but hopefully it will be ok…in the end of the day we all die someday
I have a brother in law in the US Navy currently stationed in Japan. The 7.1 didn't do anything at his base thank goodness but when they say mega quake I definitely reach out over what'sapp to check in
The overall 30 year risk probability is different from the situation now. The question is whether the earthquake that happened the other day was a foreshock to a larger Nankai earthquake
I had online Fukuoka friend that told me Sea of Japan side is not as suseptible to equakes. Japan if so should have had their capital by Fukuoka or Kitakyushu long ago
Well, the Noto Peninsula had a very powerful one in January. Niigata about 29 years ago. I think the Daisen area is very safe. Solid ground. It’s not as active but it still happens on the other sode
Also check out Tokyo Magnitude 8, it is very well made and I heard that the creators did their homework really well for this series, in order to depict the disaster as realistically as possible.
For example, if there are 100 items of something in stock and only one per shopper limit and 100 shoppers buy one each of that item, then it's no one's fault that the first 100 people cleared it out.
I went to the Honjo Life Safety Learning Center to experience their earthquake simulator and John is so right, you have no idea how strong it is until you actually feel it. All of us were crouched down on the ground on mats for a lower 6 and we all would've gone flying had we not been holding on for dear life
My wife has experienced both the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and the 2003 Tokachi Earthquake (that was a M8.3 and one the strongest earthquakes in modern Japanese history.). So earthquake preparation is something that she takes very seriously and has also instilled into our daughters. Because, will the Nankai Trough megaquake (or another megaquake) happen in our own lifetime? Possibly. But our daughters' lifetimes? Most likely. And even though we're relocating from Tokyo to Sapporo and will be far away from the Nankai Trough. Hokkaido is still at risk of powerful earthquakes itself (as with the 2003 example) and it's not as if we'll never not be visiting Tokyo or one of the other areas that are at risk from the Nankai Trough. Because we will still be down in that area a lot.
Hi John 😊 I am coming as a tourist in October. It’s only for a week but should I build a little kit? A tourist like me can’t really hope to build a comprehensive kit, and I am not too worried about it, but I also know it’s a possibility. I definitely feel like I wouldn’t want to be a burden as a visitor (as opposed to people who live in the city) if there was an incident.
I think as a tourist, you’re fine. It’s a good idea to learn the evac at the hotel, understand what to do if you’re in a strong one. Can’t predict these things but the elevated risk is good because Japanese are preparing so tourists don’t have to. Tokyo’s really done a good job and new construction to minimize the impact of a mega quake. Certainly picking newer hotel might not be a bad idea 🤔 or at least a consideration. All in all, just enjoy the trip and you probably wont feel a tremor but you’d be ready if one occurs.
We got the earthquake warning on our phones as we walked around Hiroshima yesterday. We had been staying in Miyazaki with family but left there on Wednesday so just missed it. Fortunately all our family there are OK.
Please take care of yourself and your family! I travel to Japan and Taiwan for work frequently and experienced multiple earthquakes, and I was in Taiwan during the 7.4 quake back in April. It was very very scary and I thought I am used to earthquakes.
talk about good timing lol. Kanto region just had a strong-ish quake tonight here. worst thing is always the earthquake alarm. hope you and your family are safe and ok.
Don’t forget to have some kind of first aid kit whether it is premade or you put it together yourself as part of your disaster preparations. Knowing basic first aid would also be good as first responders may not be able to get to you quickly.
There an old anime, "Tokyo Magnitude 8.0" - the concept was come from Premise that at that time Geologists was fairly sure a Mega Quake would hit Tokyo area is just a matter of When, not If
Thank you for all you do in educating us. Honestly my gut wrenches thinking that something like the Tohoku earthquake could repeat itself, possible in the very near future. I guess it is inevitable and whether it happens during the next couple of days, weeks or 30 years, one can only prepare as much as possible. Stay safe John. Edit: there was just a lower 5 shindo (M5.3) earthquake in Kanagawa. How are you guys holding up?
Thank you so much for the information and food for thought John! I've been in Japan for 4 years and currently live in Ikegami, Tokyo. Being an ex-boy scout leader, naturally I'm prepared. Don't really have these kind of things in Texas.
For those on vacation or soon to leave, it's not a warm "Welcome to Japan" news. It must be already double and triple verified for Japan to come to such consensus. This was helpful info about the different scales of intensity.
John, There are many Apocalyptic Movies has been made.. One of the best and timeless movies that being watched most of the time; The title is called: "2012" Talking about Mega Tsunami. 😊👍🏻
Erf. Well, I hope anything that comes isn't so bad. But the potential of disaster wouldn't be what keeps me away if I could spend time there, ...I've never been in a significant earthquake but I've found out I'm actually good in a crisis. If it comes over news I kinda wish I could be there to help even. Getting older, of course, so maybe less help, but yaknow.
Depends if it is a sizeable quake or a FORESHOCK for something seriousto really shake things up. Tohoku, sadly many ignored the warning to get to high ground quickly
Yesterday (on 8/7/2024 FROM 21:00 to 23:50 PST) here in CA, SW of Bakersfield, there were earthquakes from 3.8 to 5.4 magnitude It started with the 5.4 quake there were more than 55 aftershocks. 🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀
Nankai Trough will be M9.1 on most worst scenario and Tunami will reach 15m high, Tunami will reach Miyazaki to Shizuoka. Estimated casualties reach 280,000 or more, we are witnessing a largest Earthquake in humanity if it happens here...
You’ve published the wrong information. Japanese government has warned Nankai Trough earthquake. It means Kyushu, Shikoku, Osaka, Shizuoka. It’s not Tokyo mega earthquake. On the last Thursday the earthquake was hit on south of Japan, Miyazaki(Hyuga nada). Since 2000s, the experts have warned the high possibility of huge earthquake from Nankai Trough. We never know when where earthquake will occur. So it have never changed that To prepare the earthquake anytime.
I am continuously updating this. My WIFE says Tokyo is not immune and they cannot predict this thing … advisory or not, so it’s best to prepare as if. Tokyo still has an even aged warning but you’re right in regards to this advisory.
One of the best animes I have seen is Tokyo Magnitude. The problem the experts have is they don't know if they are dealing with a foreshock or not, so they have to give warning.
We talked about this at the morning briefing at my work today (Minami Azabu) as I was driving how tonight (towards Kashiwa) the alerts started going off on my phone, seems there was a small quake in Kanagawa tonight? Im fairly prepared, could always be better. If you live outside Tokyo metro, always keep your gas filled in your car.
For more on safety & simulation of Japan’s Largest Earthquakes, I made a video with the Tokyo fire department: ua-cam.com/video/o1W_znpGB_o/v-deo.htmlsi=3Yz5on_fm_BP6laM
Also, the Nankai & Sagami Trough are under the Megaquake warning, this is the Philippine Sea Plate. Tohoku is on the Pacific Plate. Let’s hope tonight’s smartphone warning ⚠️ at 19:57 is not the start of something big. That scared everyone in Tokyo tonight, 8 hours after this stream 😅
Remember it’s better to be advised and prepare than not
I’m at my grandmas in Saitama and I felt the earthquake today it was a 3 on the scale
Don’t worry be prepared
It’s understandable to be worried, even if you’re very prepared. I would be 😢 praying for you and your family!
Hey John! People were asking for my specific disaster list in a comment I left, but it seems like UA-cam keeps deleting them. Is there anything that can be done about that? Thanks in advance and thank you for this stream!
My wife and I live in Osaka and we thankfully made a disaster kit as soon as I moved to Japan. I was living at the epicenter during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in LA, so this preparation has been ingrained in me. Thank you for the update, John!
Ya'll be safe out there man
Good luck to you!! I was in that same earthquake as a kid in 94 only one that's actually scared me I'm now living in Bakersfield and we had a 6 yesterday followed up by a 4 yesterday I was wondering wtf a mega would be. I immediately thought about Japan and then I heard the news. Sending good vibes❤
What do you pack in a disaster kit in Japan? TQ
Pls share your emrgency kit
Pls share your emrgency kit
The 1 week observation is based on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Because 1 week earlier before that historic event, there was a strong quake near the region. But at the time no one paid any attention to it.
It was actually two days prior, March 9th that there was a M7.3 precursor quake. There were four in the M6 range between March 9th and 11th, before the big one hit.
The exact timing is not important- it’s an issue of whether the earthquake that happened the other day was a ‘foreshock’ earthquake
It's not based on the 2011 earthquake. It happened many times even before that. It's based on evidence and experience.
@@Nana_nikoBut this specifically based on 2011 earthquake events, not other earthquake. Japan had experienced 1500 earthquake so far this year alone.
Your advice is valuable and on point. I was here in Alaska for the Mega Earthquake of 1964 with a magnitude of 9.2. We have had three 7.9 quakes ( 2002, 2014 and 2018) here in Alaska in recent years. When we were in Nikko earlier this year we were awakened by an earthquake there. Each time since 1964 I ask myself as the earth begins to shake, is this going to be The Big One again? Thanks for reminding how important it is to have a prearranged meeting place and doing what one can to prepare ahead.
According to the USGS “"How Much Bigger…?" Calculator” M9.2 is 89.125 stronger (energy release) and 19.952 bigger than M7.9 - that is a massive difference that is very hard for people to imagine when they see the magnitude numbers. While I think that expressing the power of an earthquake in magnitude is better than something like the Richter scale and more precise than the Japanese Shindo scale, the problem is that most people don’t understand the logarithmic nature of magnitude and only see the digits, thinking they are just an increment stronger/weaker.
It's good that there's several 7+ already occured, it means the pressure was already released.
My best friend said during the 2011 earthquake her husband ran for their new big screen TV to keep it from falling - his only immediate worry. Now we can laugh about it.
lmaoo my mother did the same during a strong earyhquake in '77. Literally the whole family was outside the house and when they realised she was missing it was because she was trying to save the TV. Buuuuuut, she was a kid so... 😂
Well it’s also a main tool for getting info after the quake
Thank you for this. Been talking about this earthquake thing with my family for some time now. We do know where to go, each of us have our own emergency bag with essential stuff in it etc. ready by the shoe closet next to the front door and all lol, but I will still show this video to my wife and daughter just to let them re-realize how serious this is. And surely will share this one to others. Again, appreciate this video. Arigatou.
"A magnitude 8 or 9, you're gonna get a magnitude 7 in Tokyo."
Magnitude is a measure of the strength of the earthquake at its epicenter. You can’t have different magnitudes for the same earthquake in different places. It is singular. What you’re thinking about is shindo, which is a local measure of the strength of shaking.
For reference, the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake was a magnitude 9.0, which was felt at the highest shindo value (7) only in Kurihara City of Miyagi prefecture. The surrounding prefectures experienced it in the upper and lower 6s, and then in the 5s and lower beyond that, (Tokyo was in the 5s).
For this potential earthquake, Tokyo itself has not been issued an alert besides some pre-evacuation notices in just a few areas (I believe in the areas that would be susceptible to a tsunami, which are few in Tokyo due to its geographical location).
We will almost certainly feel the earthquake though. But the more serious warnings are mostly for prefectures from Shizuoka westward.
Im curious why no advisory has been issued against climbing Mt Fuji, given that its last eruption occurred 49 days after the 1707 Nankai Trough quake. (That quake is the 2nd strongest in Japan, after the 2011 one)
@@arkynkueh "49 days after" might be a significant factor. Given the chance isn't confirmed even in the event of an large earthquake (which itself is not even that high of a probability right now, merely heightened), I would assume they will wait until *after* an earthquake to make that advisory, unless the mountain itself starts showing signs of activity.
Watching your video just now, when my phone's earthquake alarm went off because of the quake in Kanagawa-ken. Quite disconcerting.
Yup, here too. Scared the whole family!!! Shindo 5 in Kanagawa 😅
I hope everyone in Japan is well and safe.
everybody is super chill :)
glad to hear youre ok and thanks for teaching us ❤
I also read today that Tokyo is not included. They said it is from Shizuoka up to Kyushu. Of course Tokyo will also feel it, but the epic center will be between Shizuoka and Kyushu.(According to what I heard in the japanese news).
But anyway, nobody can predict if, when and where a mega quake will happen.
Don`t live in fear. Just be prepared with an earthquake emergency bag in your house. That is anyway all that you can do.
When an earthquake occured when you are outside of your house, your emergency bag doesn`t help anything.
Therefore, don`t live in fear. Nobody knows if, when and where it will happen.
Additional there are so many other things in the world that already take the peace out of our lives, like the Russian Agressor War which brings us daily closer to WW3, then diseases from Viruses, and so on...
If we should start now to live also in fear from a nature disaster, which nobody knows if, when and where it will happen, that will take the rest of peace, that we still have, from our lives.
My wife would disagree with you 😅 they’re including the Megaquake in Tokyo too. The Nankai Trough … I’ll do another stream to get into more details tomorrow. We just had a scary smartphone alarm at 19:57, Shindo 5 in Kanagawa near Tokyo. So ….
as Jon said, this is to keep people INFORMED! so you don't panic if it happens when you are in JAPAN (small ones, not the mega one).
And you can not live your life worrying about an event that you cant control which might happens in 100-200 years. I have heard about a long overdued Mega quake for California since I was born, I'm now 42 years old and nothing had happened yet. All the important tech companies are still right there in California.
Be informed! be prepared, not panic! stay safe Jon
My wife and I did not cancel our plan to Kanazawa and Kurobe Onsen in January when the big quake struck to support their economy.
@DanteS-119nasty
Really dude? 🤨 Not canceling a trip, just to support the local economy? You definitely win the "Most Pretentious and Sanctimonious Comment of the Month" award 🏆
@@MartianAmbassador69 Yes, really!
Hey my brother. Thank goodness all is well there and you and the family are okay. I can only imagine how frightened everyone must be especially after the last major disaster by the tsunami. Can't take anything like that for granted. Always best to be safe than sorry and to make sure you have a set plan of what to do and where to go when you're out livestreaming. That will provide peace of mind for your family knowing there's a plan of action. Please keep safe my bro. Love and Aloha to you and the Daub family.
I was a kid in San Francisco when the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake happened. I remembered my grandparents taking me outside to sit in the car for several hours because they were afraid their old house was going to collapse.
I arrive in Tokyo on Sunday (my first time to Japan). I really hope everything will be ok... :(
Same situation. Going next week.
Same here. Arriving on Monday. Really hope everything will be okay
もし地震や津波でパスポートを紛失し、自国の大使館に相談しに行こうにも地震で大使館が閉鎖されてしまったとしても諦めないで下さい。日本の外務省や警察は外国人の避難に協力的です。もしかしたらまだ稼働している空港へバスを出してくれる可能性があります。一番良いのはNHK worldといった外国人向けのニュース機関の地震対策を見ることです。どこに避難すべきか、何を用意すべきが書いてあります。どうか貴方の観光が楽しいものでありますように。日本人として祈ってます
@@NoSurprize1985 Brazilian?
@@BoraMaeMochi Where are you from?
Here in California, we've been having a lot of magnitude 5 earthquakes the past week, which is rather surprising. It's been very quiet here for the last few years. Interesting timing that this nees has dropped as well :O
No we haven’t?
Stay safe John!!!
To someone who’s planning to move to Japan like me, your videos are incredibly helpful and assuring.
Just another quick correction (because I think it is important to be precise in these matters): Tokyo is not located on the same plate as the Nankai Trough. It is actually located on the same plate as Tōhoku (North American Plate), at the edge of it, neighboring the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. To the East, off the coast there is the Pacific Plate (the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 occurred at its edge).
I’m not a seismologist but the Nankai trough is about Mt Fuji converging with the Sagami Trough. They’re kind of connected here. Tohoku is on the Japan Trench, The PACIFIC PLATE. Tokyo is the Philippine Sea Plate is we’re getting technical. But I had to look this up. If the Nankai Trough had a megaquake, Tokyo will be impacted, yes. It will certainly impact the Sagami Trough. The plate goes under Tokyo Bay which is the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake. The megaquake warning for Tokyo was announced about 10-12 years ago with the 70% chance in next 30 years. Let’s hope that tonight’s smartphone alarm at 19:57 for a quake in Kanagawa isn’t the start .. so scary tonight, 8 hours after this stream.
@@onlyinjapanGO I agree, John. As always, the alert scared me. I just started having dinner. And I thought the same, like “This is it. It begins!”. I know why I left my phones downstairs last night. It is the worst almost getting a heart attack, every time these alarms go off in the middle of the night.
As for what you wrote about the tectonic plates, I hope you didn’t take my comment wrong. I know that during livestreams, it is difficult to check quickly. What I wanted to say is that Tokyo is in a very special “sandwich” position. Like the folks in the past really were looking for the most dangerous place to move their capital to. 😂 The Kantō plain apparently owes its geography to this special geological situation as well. Surely great for farming, but in terms of earthquakes… well, not so much.
Love and Positivity from the UK 🇬🇧 ❤
❤️
Slow slip is completely different to a normal earthquake. Slow slip events happen deep within the subduction zone, below where the plates are locked/stuck. So they observed a slow slip event elsewhere on the Nankai Trough. Meaning the M7.1 triggered slow slip on other segments of the Nankai Trough.
Also the 2011 Tohoku earthquake WAS a megaquake, it was a M9/9.1. Nankai Trough last experienced a megaquake in 1854, with 2x M8.4, 2 days in a row.
Am in Yokohama at the moment visiting family - Very scary as my gran is old and it is very hot, if power goes out and air con/ cooling isn't available and buildings are damaged it could be bad. Stay safe John
Get a DIY mobile solar panels & power kit.
@@Mindcroscope$$$$💰 Not everyone has disposable income for such a device.
There are battery operated evaporating coolers on the market. Better than nothing.
Get grandma some batteries and one of these swamp coolers.
@@FleshEatingBeagle swamp coolers don't really do anything in an environment that's humid already. Like an island in the pacific ocean, for instance. They would be somewhat effective if the air were relatively dry... but good luck with that.
Living on the ring of fire makes you appreciate every second you are alive.
Should be, but unfortunately suicide is still a major concern in Japan
Our friendly (for now) robot friend ChatGPT told me that the 1923 Great Kanto earthquake is not connected to the Nankai trough and was due to a different subduction zone.
The last mega-earthquake connected to the Nankai trough according to Wikipedia is the 1946 Nankaidou earthquake from which we are 78 years away (outside the 90-200 years period, which of course is just an approximation). The main concern from what I understand is that the Nankai trough which is split into 5 rupture zones (A-E) starting from off Shikoku (A) and reaching Shizuoka prefecture (E), hasn't erupted at the E section (the closest one in Tokyo) since 1854 (170 years ago), so an earthquake is theoretically most probable there. However, a mega-earthquake at C-D might be felt strongly in Tokyo but the main destruction will be in Nagoya and Shizuoka and quite little, if any, in Tokyo depending on the distance from the epicenter. The E section is the dangerous one for Tokyo (but even more for Shizuoka and Yokohama).
PS. Japan Sinks was a bad book. I bought into the hype and got it, but it was boring, unscientific, unrealistic, outdated. 3 out of 10.
Thank you for your always informative videos. I have learned a lot about quakes from you! Thinking of you and your family, and the many Japanese friends I’ve made over the years. I am hoping nothing comes to pass.
We'll be leaving for Tokyo on Sunday from Seattle, USA arriving Haneda Airport on Monday. 🙏🏽
My wife sent a message saying that she wanted to buy a portable toilet, sleeping bags, and water. We live in rural Kagoshima on the city side. I understand the reaction but I'm pretty sure that her mom called ten times to push her to get ready. We already have water and I don't want to add another thing to our storage.
Same here. We got the disposable toilet for disasters, collapsible 10L water containers … we have a good kit already. But I can’t say no because I know I could be wrong 🤷🏻♂️ and we may need it! Gosh, we need to move, we’re out of space too!
I hope everyone is safe, and without any damages. Be careful people, for any occasion.
I left Kanazawa-shi a week before the Noto earthquake happened on new years day & experienced several scale 1 to 3 tremors in Tokyo during my previous trips. I guess its part of experiencing life in Japan.
大規模地震はイスラエルが関与しています
For those unfamiliar with earthquakes and how magnitude works, there is a very useful tool from the US Geological Survey (USGS) called "How Much Bigger…?" Calculator to help people compare magnitudes and understand how much bigger and stronger they are in comparison.
Thank you for the details. Please stay safe with your family ❤
I live in Yamaguchi prefecture and we even felt the Miyazaki earthquake. Please be safe!
I live in Shunan here in Yamaguchi. Didn't feel anything here but it was depicted as a M2.
Were you here in 2001 when there was a massive quake near Hiroshima? That was scary!
i’m from Guam and experienced an 8.1 earthquake so anything below that doesn’t scare me. but experiencing a small shallow quake in Japan is a different story.
definitely i need to get myself prepared
Thank you for this informative stream, John! You explained everything really well! Praying for you guys and everyone in Japan 🙏💖 it made me emotional when you talked about your experience in the great tohoku earthquake and how you kept little Kiki safe in your pocket 😭 you’re a good person, John.
Prime Minister Kishida cancelled a trip to SouthEast Asia because of this, it was on our news earlier.
07:25 - I also suspect that the government wants to avoid the same errors and mistakes made in managing the earthquake and tsunami disaster of 2011 in Tohoku, and they are, like you always said about the Japanese, they avoid taking risks, so, I think that they don't want to let their guard down because a few days before the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, there was a shindo 6 earthquake in Tohoku, so the experts are in full alert because of that
Thank you
Thank you for this video. Information is power. The more informed we are, the better prepared we can be. Ignorance is not bliss. Praying that it is not as big as scientists are predicting. 🙏
i was on a japanese news website and they quantified the odds as 1 in 200. They went back into history and counted over 1300 quakes of a large magnitude which were followed soon afterwards with 6 mega quakes. I lived on a volcano for 15 years and reinforced my post and pier house for quakes as high as 6.9 and it survived. I moved to osaka this year just in time for this. oh joy
Hi John, I'm happy to hear you and your family are safe🙏 We are supposed to arrive for travel at the end of September. This our 3rd time we're traveling to Japan.
Jon, we are visiting Tokyo and the suburban in about a month. As a tourist, how should we prepare ourselves. We are not going to get the emergency supplies as the local and if it happens when we are in the high rise hotel. What should we do? Please advise so that I can prepare. Thanks.
I’ll address this in a follow up video and try to be exact. There’s not much. Know the evac route from the hotel and it’s good to have your day bag packed when you go to bed … in case you need to hurry out. Not a must but little things can make an impact. I’ll try to make a better list.
Hi John, I've been a fan for years. Please take care so we can all continue watching you for years to come.
Thank you!
There was a massive quake in March 2001 off the coast of Hiroshima. It registered as M8.2 and was felt as far away as South Korea. There were many smaller quakes leading up to it from October 2000.
Thank you for sharing the information and your thoughts about life. Totally agree with you !
We have multi-generational family members living in Miyazaki. They say this was a very scary quake, and it felt stronger than any they can remember. Fortunately, no one was injured and they have not experienced significant property damage. The Japanese are more prepared for earthquakes than anyone else on this planet. We still feel concerned for their safety, but do take some solace in knowing that they are better prepared than in any other country.
I'm really hoping that Japan can avoid a mega quake although that could be my wishful thinking, as we know it's going to happen eventually. Just in Japan in July and it was the first time that I did not feel any earth shaking whilst I was there. Have on the last two prior trips. Take care.
I don’t even live in Japan but my anxiety is over 9000
I really appreciate all this info! Thank you very much!
Rocking the glasses John looks cool .
I live in an old building (built in 80’s) in Nakano ward and I’m scared🥲 not sure what to do as moving anytime soon isn’t an option but hopefully it will be ok…in the end of the day we all die someday
Appreciate the video John
John,
Are there any radio stations that broadcast in English during an emergency?
災害ニュースを知りたいのでしたらNHK World Japanなどがあります。ただ、津波警報などの警告情報が通知された方が安全なので特化したアプリのSafety tipsが良いでしょう。日本政府が推奨している多言語災害対策アプリです。
I have a brother in law in the US Navy currently stationed in Japan. The 7.1 didn't do anything at his base thank goodness but when they say mega quake I definitely reach out over what'sapp to check in
The overall 30 year risk probability is different from the situation now. The question is whether the earthquake that happened the other day was a foreshock to a larger Nankai earthquake
Still remember the January 17, 1995. Kobe earthquake. 5:46am Great Hanshin earthquake. 7 on the JMA scale
Great info. Thanks!
I had online Fukuoka friend that told me Sea of Japan side is not as suseptible to equakes. Japan if so should have had their capital by Fukuoka or Kitakyushu long ago
That's not the way capitals would have been chosen in feudal Japan.
Well, the Noto Peninsula had a very powerful one in January. Niigata about 29 years ago. I think the Daisen area is very safe. Solid ground. It’s not as active but it still happens on the other sode
Hi Everyone Thanks John We live very close to the Hayward fault in the SF Bay Area Always prepared ( need to recheck ) l appreciate the recheck
Also check out Tokyo Magnitude 8, it is very well made and I heard that the creators did their homework really well for this series, in order to depict the disaster as realistically as possible.
Clearing the store shelves like that is harming the other people, my friend.
For example, if there are 100 items of something in stock and only one per shopper limit and 100 shoppers buy one each of that item, then it's no one's fault that the first 100 people cleared it out.
I went to the Honjo Life Safety Learning Center to experience their earthquake simulator and John is so right, you have no idea how strong it is until you actually feel it. All of us were crouched down on the ground on mats for a lower 6 and we all would've gone flying had we not been holding on for dear life
Great chat. We are coming back !
I wish we had emergency kits like that readily available in Chile too. We had an 8.8 earthquake in 2010 and most people weren't prepared at all.
My wife has experienced both the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and the 2003 Tokachi Earthquake (that was a M8.3 and one the strongest earthquakes in modern Japanese history.). So earthquake preparation is something that she takes very seriously and has also instilled into our daughters. Because, will the Nankai Trough megaquake (or another megaquake) happen in our own lifetime? Possibly. But our daughters' lifetimes? Most likely.
And even though we're relocating from Tokyo to Sapporo and will be far away from the Nankai Trough. Hokkaido is still at risk of powerful earthquakes itself (as with the 2003 example) and it's not as if we'll never not be visiting Tokyo or one of the other areas that are at risk from the Nankai Trough. Because we will still be down in that area a lot.
I lived there when the 2011 happened, it was scary.
Thanks for sharing it. Stay safe. ✌️
Hi John 😊 I am coming as a tourist in October. It’s only for a week but should I build a little kit? A tourist like me can’t really hope to build a comprehensive kit, and I am not too worried about it, but I also know it’s a possibility. I definitely feel like I wouldn’t want to be a burden as a visitor (as opposed to people who live in the city) if there was an incident.
I think as a tourist, you’re fine. It’s a good idea to learn the evac at the hotel, understand what to do if you’re in a strong one. Can’t predict these things but the elevated risk is good because Japanese are preparing so tourists don’t have to. Tokyo’s really done a good job and new construction to minimize the impact of a mega quake. Certainly picking newer hotel might not be a bad idea 🤔 or at least a consideration. All in all, just enjoy the trip and you probably wont feel a tremor but you’d be ready if one occurs.
We got the earthquake warning on our phones as we walked around Hiroshima yesterday. We had been staying in Miyazaki with family but left there on Wednesday so just missed it. Fortunately all our family there are OK.
There was a 5.3 quake in Kanagawa today, yesterday for you John.
It would be crazy if a Mega-Quake happened while you are filming! Would you start running, start filming or both?
Please take care of yourself and your family! I travel to Japan and Taiwan for work frequently and experienced multiple earthquakes, and I was in Taiwan during the 7.4 quake back in April. It was very very scary and I thought I am used to earthquakes.
Best to be prepared. Mahalo.
talk about good timing lol. Kanto region just had a strong-ish quake tonight here. worst thing is always the earthquake alarm. hope you and your family are safe and ok.
I heard it too - scary.
Check out historical accounts of the New Madrid, MO earthquake(s). It was felt as far away as the east coast of the USA.
Thank you and please stay safe
Don’t forget to have some kind of first aid kit whether it is premade or you put it together yourself as part of your disaster preparations. Knowing basic first aid would also be good as first responders may not be able to get to you quickly.
There an old anime, "Tokyo Magnitude 8.0" - the concept was come from Premise that at that time Geologists was fairly sure a Mega Quake would hit Tokyo area is just a matter of When, not If
Thank you for all you do in educating us. Honestly my gut wrenches thinking that something like the Tohoku earthquake could repeat itself, possible in the very near future. I guess it is inevitable and whether it happens during the next couple of days, weeks or 30 years, one can only prepare as much as possible. Stay safe John.
Edit: there was just a lower 5 shindo (M5.3) earthquake in Kanagawa. How are you guys holding up?
Holy moly! Hopefully it's a false alarm and nothing like a mega-quake happens. My thoughts are with you and your family John.
Thank you so much for the information and food for thought John! I've been in Japan for 4 years and currently live in Ikegami, Tokyo. Being an ex-boy scout leader, naturally I'm prepared. Don't really have these kind of things in Texas.
For those on vacation or soon to leave, it's not a warm "Welcome to Japan" news. It must be already double and triple verified for Japan to come to such consensus. This was helpful info about the different scales of intensity.
John, There are many Apocalyptic Movies has been made.. One of the best and timeless movies that being watched most of the time; The title is called: "2012" Talking about Mega Tsunami. 😊👍🏻
The lack of decent sized aftershocks is odd but it’s probably nothing to worry about
Erf. Well, I hope anything that comes isn't so bad. But the potential of disaster wouldn't be what keeps me away if I could spend time there, ...I've never been in a significant earthquake but I've found out I'm actually good in a crisis. If it comes over news I kinda wish I could be there to help even. Getting older, of course, so maybe less help, but yaknow.
Depends if it is a sizeable quake or a FORESHOCK for something seriousto really shake things up. Tohoku, sadly many ignored the warning to get to high ground quickly
Yesterday (on 8/7/2024 FROM 21:00 to 23:50 PST) here in CA, SW of Bakersfield, there were earthquakes from 3.8 to 5.4 magnitude It started with the 5.4 quake there were more than 55 aftershocks. 🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀🙀
The quake was relatively close to Sakurajima, wonder if it had any effect on the volcano?
Nankai Trough will be M9.1 on most worst scenario and Tunami will reach 15m high, Tunami will reach Miyazaki to Shizuoka. Estimated casualties reach 280,000 or more, we are witnessing a largest Earthquake in humanity if it happens here...
I've read that the death toll estimate was based on being completely unprepared. Essentially a worse case estimate
Yes, that seems right. The time of day also makes a difference. Maybe even time of year.
Thank you for this video. These apps and info will help when I visit Japan this fall 😊
Hope everyone is safe there.
Thank you for this update. Are you able to share the link to the 4min mark where the document explains about the Shindo scale?
You’ve published the wrong information. Japanese government has warned Nankai Trough earthquake. It means Kyushu, Shikoku, Osaka, Shizuoka. It’s not Tokyo mega earthquake.
On the last Thursday the earthquake was hit on south of Japan, Miyazaki(Hyuga nada).
Since 2000s, the experts have warned the high possibility of huge earthquake from Nankai Trough.
We never know when where earthquake will occur. So it have never changed that To prepare the earthquake anytime.
I am continuously updating this. My WIFE says Tokyo is not immune and they cannot predict this thing … advisory or not, so it’s best to prepare as if. Tokyo still has an even aged warning but you’re right in regards to this advisory.
One of the best animes I have seen is Tokyo Magnitude.
The problem the experts have is they don't know if they are dealing with a foreshock or not, so they have to give warning.
We talked about this at the morning briefing at my work today (Minami Azabu) as I was driving how tonight (towards Kashiwa) the alerts started going off on my phone, seems there was a small quake in Kanagawa tonight? Im fairly prepared, could always be better. If you live outside Tokyo metro, always keep your gas filled in your car.
my prayers are with you and your family, stay strong.
We’re always aware when we are anywhere in Japan.
Stay safe John.. glad you’re okay and family
I just heard what happen sending Lots of Love for everyone . stay safe everyone .