Even in the highly unlikely scenario that Ukraine were to negotiate, the Russian Federation has proven itself abjectly untrustworthy. Their adherence to conventions and treaties is essentially nonexistent.
Knowing this, why doesn't Gen. Milley STFU?? It's not his job to talk like that. Most concerning is that the war outcome depends on the US, not merely NATO. Given the US record over the last 30 years, it's not very comforting. The US has a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and if that happens this time, it is basically curtains for the US and the west. Not saying it will necessarily, but it could happen.
@@Princip666 Budapest memorandum - Ukraine gave up nukes for territorial security agreements. Invasion of Crimea with "Little Green Men" followed by following the Minsk accords (agreement in attempt to deal with Donetsk and Luhansk issues). Russia's word and the international community commitments don't tend to hold up.
There is also the factor of the Russians being just completely insincere in their communication. It is pretty clear from all their actions that any negotiation would be in bad faith anyway. Even if Putin offered Zelensky to negotiate with no conditions, would anyone really believe that it´s not just a plot by Russia to play for time?
@@Muljinn I expect that's probably right. But if the population gets heated up enough, hopefully the cowardice can be challenged. But there's a few moving parts to that scenario for it to come to pass. If the opposition politicians start really sticking their boots about the foot dragging in I'll be more encouraged.
@@geopolitix7770 pro-Ukraine folks need to start putting up ads in German and French media showing the Russian war crimes. That would stiffen spines quickly. Mind you, not describing, not telling, *showing*. Pictures of the dead and wounded. Videos of disarming booby traps to recover the bodies of dead women who were raped so they can be buried.
@@Muljinn I am not so sure. I think it´s more that they´re trying to position themselves to potentially be the ones to broker a peace deal. If it works, they will be hailed as heroes. If it doesn´t, they can always say they meant well at least. In my view, it´s just pure political calculation.
ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. We had 8 years to train and arm the Ukrainians after Crimea was invaded. The result is Russia getting its ass kicked. WHY negotiate now.
I really appreciate your dispassionate approach. I mean on the one hand you are passionate about reality, but not passionate about proving prior beliefs to be correct. As a science teacher, I consider you a scientist at heart.
As an American, I can say nobody I talk with agrees with Mark Milley. It is simply Ukraine wins and gets its territory back and Russia loses and pays. I have not talked to anyone who feels differently. Cynically, we also agree that this relatively small investment in helping Ukraine is perhaps the biggest military bargain of all time, as they have decimated and exposed Russia. Just the knowledge gained in this war was worth the money, if not for the Ukrainian lives.
@@andrewharrison8436 agreed. But, it would likely be worse without the West’s investment, as most of the Ukrainians would rather fight this the death than be ruled by Russia. (Lived in Kyiv 2 years, many friends from Donbas who fought on the front lines in 2014-15.)
@@aaronbaker2186 the counter argument would be to not allow Russians to rearm like Germany was allowed to do. As for the crushing of the Russian economy, most Russians live so badly outside of a few cities, they might not even notice.
There are several other things that must be negotiated. The most important thing is the return of Ukrainians that Russia has kidnapped. The second is Russia handing over war criminals. It’s worth mentioning that once Russia is forcibly ejected from all of Ukraine, that Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of leverage to negotiate reparations, return of Ukrainian hostages, or turning over war criminals. The parties with leverage are those countries that have been waging the economic war against Russia. Russia wants sanctions and embargoes lifted. It will want to resume trade and normal economic relations. What is Putin willing to trade for such concessions? Will he allow extradition of field commanders and lower level generals? Many would think never, but they forget that Putin is a greedy villain. He wants his yacht back.
@@mariaf.6601 He’s going to say that the USSR retreated from the Nazis and won the war, completely ignoring that in the current war, the Russians are playing the role the Nazis and Ukraine, in defending its own soil, plays the role of the Soviets. In short, he’s delusional and ignorant. He really believes that Zelensky is a Nazi. He used to claim it anyway. When someone is that ridiculous, it’s hard to tell what they actually believe.
I think you have this spot on, as always! Although I'm someone in the west who's concerned about the war and unnecessary deaths and because of that.... I wish to god we would all give whatever Ukraine needs to push Russia out of Ukraine and have a clear victory. Thank you from the UK 🇬🇧....
Terrific program, as usual. Thank you. I wonder, as an amateur, if the politicians and the Military in the West are suggesting negotiations mainly to “appear” that attempts at peace are being made ? They may not really want a bad settlement for Ukraine. They must be very aware that Putin and his criminal cabinet would re-arm and attack Ukraine again in a few months or a few years. So, in my opinion, there may not be a serious intention in the West to do a poor job and call a truce after so much effort has already been made to stop Russia. It is a shame to see such a bloodbath affecting BOTH sides, including the the terrible harm to the Ukrainian ordinary citizens. I think this is a golden opportunity for the Americans to destroy as much of the Russian military as possible. Russia is a nuisance to the world. Once again, it is a shame that there is so much harm done to BOTH countries ! Don’t negotiate with the Russians until they are driven out completely. RS. Canada
Brilliant, it makes a lot of sense. I personally think that any sort of negotiation is premature at the moment but signaling the willingness to talk supports the moral high ground, even if Zelenzki doesn't budge from his demands
Do the Europeans and Americans who want Ukraine to negotiate imagine that a good-hearted Putin will turn on the gas, and everything will be like it was before? That will not happen, and Europeans can NEVER depend on Russia again for strategic resources like energy.
@Marc van den Boogaard they could rely on Europe? If the EU announced a trillion Euro initiative to build nuclear and renewable energy accross Europe they could replace a lot of gas power. It would also drive down prices for natural gas and oil (less demand, lower price) so it would be a win-win. The investment would easily pay for itself.
Thank you Professor Nielsen for this and your live stream (yes, I watched both) . I really wish more people in the west could understand how disastrous peace talks would be at this time. As you've more articulately expressed: the signal to Russia of wavering western support, the demoralizing effect on Ukrainian defenders, the potential for Russia to strengthen itself, the inevitable Russian duplicity under Putin and most importantly the drawing out of the conflict at the cost of innocent Ukrainian lives all point to peace talks now being a huge mistake. The sad truth is that Russia must be punished more before any legitimate and lasting peace can be contemplated.
Another sad issue is that it may make sense for Ukraine to leave some of the Donbas in Russian hands until the peace talks. Why? So Ukraine can attack and kill Russian troops, keeping the war "hot," so the Russian public can't ignore it. If Ukraine pushes Russia out, Russia can lob missiles at Ukrainian hospitals for 20 years...
@@Princip666 Kto je mimo? Myslis toho danskeho analytika? Tento clovek je zaroven dostojnikom danskeho namornictva a Rusku sa venuje na akademickej urovni celu svoju karieru.
@@pedroprague Fanatikovi profesionalitu nevysvetlis, co sa nezhoduje s jeho svetonazorom, resp. nepodporuje rusko ten je mimo, nezavisle na realite. Proste je ake su data, vystup je stale ten isty..
Agree. I don’t see a lot of politicians in West pushing for peace negotiations other than General Miley. I thought his response very concerning. To get to negotiations. Ukraine needs more weapons and Russia to know that the west will not waiver. Thank you for the video
You need to listen to ALL of Milleys his comments - he is basically keeping all the options opens and is fully supportive of the US administration position that there can be no negotiations without the agreement of Ukraine
@@brucemcpherson8832 I did watch ALL of his comments and the assessment I made was that it was not as supportive as it should have been.as opposed to Lloyd Austin. That is my personal take. I watched the entire press conference
Zelenskyy had painted himself into a corner, Milley pointed out the obvious, which is Ukraine should give the Ruzzian Fascists a chance to withdraw, rather than press their human wave tactics. The Moskals were feigning a desire for peace so Zelenskyy's plan was needed to expose the sham. Now Milley gave Blinken & Sullivan a way to open the issue, as "fighting all the way to Moscow" is not a viable plan. Biden can just explain Milley's a military guy, but it's an opportunity to screw Vladolf Pootin up some more
I think it was mostly about timing. Milley expressed the White House line pretty well, but a few days too late. At that point, Zelensky had already responded to the signals from the Biden administration, and Milley's statements made it look like Ukraine hadn't done enough.
@@anderspuck Milley was out of line. He is not SOD. That's Austin, and Austin, though he only said it once, is down with crushing the Russian military so it doesn't threaten its neighbors again.
The western pressure on Ukraine to negotiate baffles me. How many of his citizens do these people expect for Zelensky to sell out just so we can buy cheap gas again? Do they really think that a triumphant Putin is going to say "Ok. These parts of Ukraine are enough. I'm happy with my empire now and I'm going to leave everyone alone from now on."
Because the people in the west are weak spoiled brats who have very little tolerance for adversity. Putin will eat all of Europe and the US for breakfast in the long run.
- "The western pressure on Ukraine to negotiate baffles me." What western pressure? Do you mean some ordinary people on the forums or governments. If you mean the latter, are we talking about the same war? The pressure has been almost non-existent. A few slight hints to that direction, but if you watched the video, you should have noticed (as it was clearly and intelligently explained), that those hints are mostly just for the domestic audience, and meant to feel that the peace is not an idea that has been totally rejected. Rest assured that the western governments don't want to see Russia to be able to attack its neighbours and cause other trouble at least for the next fifty years, preferably never. That means that Russia has to suffer not a fast defeat, but a total, exhausting defeat that removes from it its resources and capabilities to in the future build a well performing army. If the war ends too soon, Russia may again rise as a threat, with all the lessons it has learned from this war.
@@adoatero5129 Totally agree but if "Russia has to suffer...." what that really means is "Russians" WILL suffer. Therein lies the Western moral dichotomy.
@@jaemate21 That's what Putin thinks/hopes. He's going to be disabused of that notion... unless he thinks he can be like the Afghans or the N. Vietnamese and hold out for 20 years.
As Winston Churchill said “You can’t negotiate with a tiger when your head in in its mouth’. The British will stand firm as will the Polls, the Nordic countries, The Netherlands and Canada. America will also stand firm this time despite the few appeasers in their ranks.
Easy for everybody to say negotiate when they are not the ones not being bombed every day. What Russia is doing to Ukraine is sickening. If they were hitting military targets then it's all good. But they are wasting civilians lives for something they are not gonna change. How can you kill the innocent and expect them to give in. There is a whole country that has to give in and Ukraine isn't gonna give in.
I would add the Baltic States, the Czechs and Slovakia to the "stand firm" list. Too bad we have a few European Chamberlains though. But enough of us will stand firm for Ukraine to win.
While not denying some people in the US might want to see negotiations, I can confidently say they are VERY few. Everybody sees this war as an attempt by Russia to reassert its control over neighbors. Everybody sees this must be stopped.
I think it's really important that Russia gets nothing from their aggression/terrorism besides economic ruin, death, and misery. There isn't room in the modern world for Putin or others of his ilk. Russia needs _REFORM_ and unfortunately this war is the beginning of that process. Any kind of negotiated settlement where Russia gets even a tiny % of what they want would be a disastrous result IMO.
Russia is old. So old that it's power culture has grown deep-seated roots back centuries. I would agree if Russian history didn't teach us that if Russsia is going to commit to an agreement of any kind they will have to get some kind of assurance and visible positive attribute out of it. In short. Putin will never give up. Give in. Do anything that pleases the west. He has the stamina to proof it.
@@charisma-hornum-fries I am not sure where you get this "so old" sentiment -- France, Britain are both quite a bit older then Russia. As for "putin will never give up", only one way to find out, and we are in a discovery process as we speak.
@@charisma-hornum-fries the flip side is that Russia has to be an Empire. Half their land is held by people who want to leave Russia. If Russia gets too weak, say by getting the Russian military destroyed in Ukraine, those areas may think the time to be free is now. Another issue is the Russian economy, their ability to fight a war is, like most nations, based on economic power. I half-joke that when Biden said he wanted Russia out of the G20 he wasn't saying the group should eject Russia, he was saying he wanted the Russian GDP to drop to #21 or lower. It kinda looks like that will happen. Or Xi will puppet Russia and use them to help fight India.
I appreciate it. I want your analysis but sometimes I have an hour or more and sometimes I don’t. And no offense, but there are only two to whom I guarantee an hour: Perun and Tim Snyder’s Ukrainian history course at Yale. I promise you that if your presentations are 30 minutes or less, I will 100% watch ASAP. Longer than that, I might watch or I might keep putting it off. All that might sound like a back-handed compliment, so let me be clear: I value your thinking, your work, and your knowledge. I respect and appreciate you.
@@MarcosElMalo2 One thing about Anders' uploads are that they are usually just as valuable tomorrow as they are today. So if a video should be a bit "too long" and we don't have time for it the first couple of days there is no reason to skip it if we can watch it at a later time. Furthermore as he doesn't upload on daily basis, if we are few days later we will most probably only have his newest video in wait for us anyway. Thanks for the kind words to my countryman.
@@MarcosElMalo2 There is also a big difference between what content there is in a video. My livestream was mostly a Q&A session, and that's very different from a Perun video.
The major part is that Ukraine's future security has to be assured, and that means Russia has to climb down from "Ukraine isn't a country" and "Russian Empire 3.0, Yo!". Until that is guaranteed, then I see no starting point for any negotiations that are not just a ten year truce.
I do wonder after the war is ended, if Ukraine does not join NATO then there would need to be a multi national troop presence in the country. There is going to be no point where Russia does not remain a threat.
@Mark Hewitt it's not needed. Finland will become a member state soon enough. It's also more likely that Ukraine will become an EU member. Because the EU will pay for just about all rebuilding. Otherwise, it will become difficult to control fully as big Corp wants the business.
Very difficult to negotiate with a party, who is not an honest broker and clearly stated in their personal manifesto, their denial of your identity and nationhood. They will only use talks at this time to unravel the supporting parties.
I check daily for your new videos. Above all the noise, we really need and appreciate your expert analysis and personable nature/ presentation skills. THANK YOU ANDERS!
Exactly my hunch too! It’s all about communication and playing chess. Zelensky has been open to negotiations both before Feb 24 and after and the signals from Russia have been chauvinistic, insincere and uncompromising, even theatrically cruel at times (poisoned Abramovic, bombed Kyiv during Guiterrez visit, threatened to seal the exits of Azovstal) and then there is no point, and conditions need to be reshaped. I am convinced that Ukraine has been pragmatic about it all along. Another thing Zelensky needs to balance: public opinion in Ukraine.
Excellent and comprehensive with great insight. Zelensky is playing a difficult part in all of this, as are western heads of state. Honestly, we are lucky to have democratic leadership in our executive branch of government and can’t imagine how messy this could all be if the orange #45 guy were still in office - any member of that party as president would make it extremely difficult to have confidence in our support for Ukraine for this war. Biden, Blinken, etc. have gotten pretty good at making you wonder if much of the announced support has been in the chamber for awhile. Its difficult to imagine the announcement of something that will take another 6 months of logistics and training, etc. after it had been requested a year ago. Hopefully there is a dance that they have been playing since the beginning that set things in motion that we will see sooner than later. On a side note - Many of us far western cowboys don’t have the knack for understanding the subtlety of inter EU policies, which may be a good topic for a video - I imagine it’s akin to the way the states of the United States operate, but with a sovereignty that makes most of their domestic policies strictly homogenous to their identities as nations, except in cases where that policy oppresses/marginalizes its own, which would probably prevent any entry into the union and so is not an issue … I suppose that’s what we are hearing (not enough) about with Ukraine and it’s application to the long process. The states of the US and their independent legislatures along with federal representatives that are elected to be the voice of their states are becoming more wiling to exploit vulnerable people and sensitive topics to be elevated to a status that is either extremely embarrassing and transparently sad or super ultra awesome and subversively entitled to everything republicans have grievances over, which are %99 imagined.
Thanks for pulling this out as an excerpt Anders. Great move to have this analysis more accessible and I think it's a topic that's only going to get more important over the winter
Thank you from Ukraine 🇺🇦 I always watch your videos for high quality structured analysis of the situation, because surely I’m reading hundreds of small pieces of news daily😑
At least in Germany I see that now only a very few people are talking about negotiations. Half a year ago much more were demanding peace nogitiations but most this extreem left politicions gave up this position. Now only the right Party continue it.
Marita Schweizer, as a German I'm glad that the votes now against negotiations. Steinmeier has corrected himself in an Interview and said very clear is not time for negotiations and that his assumption in 2014 was wrong. 🌻
Many Leftists still have nostalgia for USSR and Old Guard Socialists still tainted by Stalinism meanwhile many Rightists have admiration for "tough guy" Big Daddy Putin, think Might is Right and are still believers that RuZZia is a mighty military ...and think he's hero coz he's against multiculturalism, gays etc
I think there is always a baseline desire for normalcy. No war is normal, so after a bit, people start asking why its not over yet. There is also a tendency for people to blame those they have influence over for things rather than the guilty party.
Like an abused spouse ... maybe if you didn't talk that way, maybe if you didn't dress so attractively, maybe if you stayed home more ... maybe the abused can control the abuser ... yea, that doesn't work. Ever.
I wish no war was normal again in the US. Millennials have never lived in a time of peace. Even it's not a hot war, it's a proxy war or at least us droning, bombing or special forcing someone.
@@TheIndianaGeoff Small-scale conflict like that has been normal for tens of thousands of years. Only the methods have changed. The US didn't invent conflict.
I hope my country sends everything Ukrainians need, all that we've promised and then some, ASAP!! Ukraine must endure the winter! We can help make sure that happens. 💛💙💜💙💛
Sláva Ukrayíni ! Glory to the Heroes ! Russian understands only brute force. Russia is not trustworthy. To give up territory to Russia abandons the Ukrainians to Russia left. Ukraine is not close to losing, Russia is. Your logic is correct. Russia is not as strong as they thought they were.
Peace talks are perfectly reasonable if they only two topics for negotiation are 1) facilitating Puzzia’s complete withdrawal from all of Ukraine and 2) a schedule for reparations. Everyone should be willing to talk about those two things at any time. Cause that is the only way this conflict ends.
The way we secured a lasting peace and a real change of heart from Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan was by insisting on unconditional surrender. This is what we should demand from Russia, or else we will just have to go through this again and again.
Yes, but how do you get Russia to surrender unconditionally? I don’t think it’s possible while Russia has nuclear weapons. When Germany surrendered unconditionally, Berlin was already overrun. Japan surrendered because the two atomic bombs demonstrated that they could be annihilated. What actual leverage do you think could be applied to force Russia’s unconditional surrender. I agree that unconditional surrender by Russia is desirable, but it’s not a realistic goal.
@@MarcosElMalo2 I know - the situation is quite different. Japan surrendered and accepted military occupation and rehabilitation partly so the USSR wouldn't invade. Perhaps if it looked like China might seize Siberia and the Russian military were one thoroughly beaten than today, they might just see a deal like that as the lesser of the evils, especially if we remind them how well the Axis powers did post-WW II. Putin would have to go of course.
I agree 100% Anders, suggestion of peace negotiations by any reasonable country as not serious, just to appease "peace at any cost voters" -- EXCEPT FRANCE. France does not give a darn about foreign countries like Ukraine. Yes, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are also too cheap to donate to Ukraine's war effort, but France is the one speaking out recommending we all give up and letting Putin take yet another slice of Ukraine. Russia needs to exit Ukraine and restore the borders it agreed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. Only then can peace negotiations mean anything. Otherwise, Putin will continue taking the countries and regions surrounding Russia slice by slice.
I find it strange that there’s no mention of Zelenskyy’s need to “communicate to home front” and rally the Ukrainian population to super human effort and endurance in the face of staggering danger. If he were to says anything pointing towards giving in to ANY Russian claim the war effort would be jeopardized
I agree with you. But I think that Zelensky is aiming both at the Russians and his own population when showing that Ukraine is strong and will not bend. They both require the same message.
Zelensky knows that he is dealing with a thug mentality government, that relies on the fascist ideology of strength above everything else. The Kremlin however has a big problem. It's clearly the stronger party, but its strength would make it the greatest outcast of all times, even a tactical nuke is beyond the limits. Thus, using its nukes is not an option, as every country with nukes in their arsenal will feel the heat, not only from their own people. If Russia would use even one of them, everyone would be after them, besides maybe a mad little dictator in NK. This however necessitates Ukraine to put Russia into a weak position, as everything else would be considered a win for Russia by this point, that fooling their chosen opponents into a false sense of security still works. As much as I want the needless loss of life to end. For the next decades, if not century, it is imperative that Russia truly loses this war. Everything else would only delay the inevitable Russian imperialist believes and further wars connected with it. Which we already have seen with Chechnya and Georgia. A lot will depend on the next months, if Russia manages to recover from its disastrous war this year and if the mobiks can change the course of war. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive human wave tactics next year, in order to regain lost ground. If such an approach would change anything is a different matter.
Putin has taken care of that. If you ever want to make sure that a country won't surrender until every inch of their land is occupied by the attacker, bomb civilians and civilian infrastructure. It isn't surprising that 90% of Ukrainians want to keep fighting until every Russian is driven out. It is surprising that 10% are willing to talk peace.
Thanks you for a very good analysis. This is partly the same as "William Spaniel" YT channel (also recommended) talks about in all his videos. We have to wait for one of the parts (most probably Russia) know that they are losing and it can't be reversed before we will see real attempts of peace negotiations. If we want ourselves and not Putin to decide our future I believe we must support Ukraine not only all that we can but *all that Ukraine needs* - and the figure out how to give that support.
Thanks for uploading another video! I can't get enough of your analysis and I really enjoyed the last video about peace talks and learning of your background and credentials. Also, 'first'.
I find the term “dispute” to be perhaps not be entirely applicable . If you and your neighbor can’t agree where your fence should go that is a dispute. If your neighbor comes over to your house with a loaded gun pointed at you that seems to be something different.
In your hypothetical, your neighbor is disputing your right to live and your ability to protect yourself. If a mugger tries to rob you, he is disputing your ownership of whatever money or valuables he wants to take with you. The mugger is disputing your ability to protect yourself and your valuables. In both of these cases, the dispute has two components. The aggressors are disputing your rights (right to live or right of ownership), and they are disputing your ability to protect your rights. Now it might be that your neighbor is just insane and kills you due to some hallucination or delusion or for the thrill of it. That might not be a dispute.
The Russians gave guarantees on Ukraine's security in the Budapest Memorandum in return for the destruction of former Soviet nuclear weapons that were based on Ukrainian territory. The two countries can get together to discuss the reparations Russia owes to Ukraine after Russia has complied with its existing commitments.
No stop to UKR offensive(s). They can talk if UKR wants but no cessation of hostilities. Keep the pressure on. If Putin wants to stop the fighting, GET OUT OF UKR! Slava Ukraini!
War joke (bitter): At midnight Putin goes to the grave of Stalin: What should i do? The ghost of Stalin appears: Sacrifice 500.000 young healthy Russians in the grinding meat war and paint the Kremlin in blue. Putin asks? Why do i have to paint the Kremlin in blue? Stalin laughs. I knew the second bit was causing you problems.
You're seeming to imply that both sides are equally in war trying to dominate the other ... in an invasion only the aggressor is "trying to clarify a power relationship"/assert power/dominance. The invaded aggressed against side is only trying to clarify it's own power to resist, oppose, defeat that attempt at assertion of dominance.
I really enjoyed the Q&A steam you did. As I recall it was your first time? I think it went great (at least as someone who watched it after the fact). Hoping you’ll do more soon!
Speaking for myself: As problems go, mine are small. I'm not driven from my home, I'm not in danger from bombs raining over my head, I've not lost any family members, I don't live under the rule of ogres. Heck, I've even still got my washing machine. We can not let the ukrainians down. They must have all the help they need to negotiate from strength and get their country back, and proper guarantees against any future threat. Anything less would be shameful.
You seem stressed out and ill-prepared for this video, Anders, are you OK? I hope everything's OK, looking forward to more great content! All the best, greetings from Norway 🙂
Now is not the time for peace talks, there is never a time for peace talks. Logic says there is a time for peace talks, however some things defy logic, plain and simple. Any peace talks would involve giving a piece of Ukraine to Russia. Which part of France do you suggest giving Russia Mr. Macron? Which part of the United States do you suggest that we give to Russia Mr. Milley? There are some things that defy logic, get used to it. This is one of them. You either will fight for your country, or you won't. Ukraine has shown that they will. We should support them with no limits, just as they should support us.
But Ukraine is perfectly open for a peaceful diplomatic solution, all it takes is that Russia immediately announces a cease fire, and then leaves occupied territory. After that we can discuss just how much reparations Russia will pay for damages done, and repatriating the kidnapped Ukranians.
It is obvious that Peace is a good idea, we have had years of the peace dividend and the corresponding economic progress. This was backed up by peace treaties, guarantees of Ukranian sovereignty, Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons. This has all become past tense it was a good idea until the invasion, now we have a Russia that it's leaders have demonstrated is untrustworthy. There is no middle ground for negotiation.. As a lifelong pacifist against the military industrial complex my position has become untenable. In looking for a "least bad" outcome there does need to be further attrition of the Russian military, I can't be happy about the destruction of unwilling conscripts but that seems to be inevitable. I think the analysis that there needs to be more fighting is correct - to minimise the downsides it needs to be as one sided (in Ukrania's favour) as possible.
Hey Anders, Excellent and informative channel you have here. I have a question you might be able to answer. There has been a lot of talk about providing the Ukrainian army with Leopard 2. tanks from European armies. According to good old fachion Wikipedia. The following European powers have Leopard tanks at their disposal in their arsenal. Danmark - 44 Leopard 2A7 Finland - 91 Leopard 2A4, Grækenland - 196 2A4. Norge - 52 2A4NO, Polen - 128 Leopard 2A4 Portugal - 38 2A6NL Schweiz - 380 Leopard 2A4, Singapore - 66 2A4 Spanien - 327 Leopard 2. Sverige - 122 er aktiv. Tyrkiet - 298 Leopard 2A4 købt af Tyskland. Østrig - 114 Leopard 2A4 My question is: Is there any current talk about making a pool of leopard 2. tanks from European and sending them to Ukraine? And if there has been, where has it landed?
Grazie, Anders... thorough & excellent as always! Perhaps much more uncertain given what we know about the workings of Kremlin, but sometime maybe you could also explore the same topic from the POV not only of Russia's demands and 'negotiating position', but also what's at stake for Putin, _personally._ Thx again!
Even as I absolutly don`t like the idea that the fighting has to continue and more people have to suffer before real talk about peace can begin, I have also to admit that your reasoning for this is spot on.
In Vietnam, there was an internal debate in Ministry of Foreign Affairs about Geneva Conference if what we did (choose peace and temporary division of country) is correct. Many of officials commented that is a mistake. We should have continued the war until the whole country is united, not by peace negotiations. Delayed the unification has costed us a lot more people's lives, time and other things. I hope the Ukraine can learn from our lesson. Peace negotiation is an option only after they retake every single square of their territory, not now.
Very good theoretical analysis. BUT, there is more to this conflict than just a balancing out of actions and reactions. This is also about fundamental rights and wrongs and what is worth fighting for and what isn't. We have to consider whether the fight is just or unjust and whether the result is worth fighting for. Just to look at the balance of power and whether it is worth negotiating or not is too simplistic. We have to consider what sort of world we want to live in and what the result would be if we cave in before we need to. Let us remember that thousands of young men are laying their lives on the line for what they believe is right and we have to consider very carefully about whether we have the right to negotiate away something they are fighting and dying for. The fact is that the NATO alliance is far stronger than anything the Russians can come up with, and it really is time to start talking about winning rather than negotiating. In any case, there is no point in negotiating with the Russians. We have to remember that the Ukrainians negotiated away their nuclear weapons which would have protected them from this aggression. The fact is that the people currently running Russia have clearly demonstrated that they are a bunch of pathological liars who cannot be trusted in any kind of negotiation.
Putin wants the annexed areas to have a service route for crimea and black sea fleet simple ! Control over this area and sea ports and manipulate Ukraine 🇺🇦
Very good presentation, thank you. I do feel that Russia has very different values on life compared to the West and we have see that in the living conditions of Russian villages. Why does the biggest country on earth, indeed the known universe, want more land when it can not develop what it already has? It still amazes me how Putin has grabbed so much power and that the Russian population has been sleep walking.
Because that land is empty and largely worthless to the Moscow elite. The cost of development and infill exceed any predicted gains in those regions. It’s much the same reason most of Canada is largely undeveloped. Most of the country is too far away from where anyone wants to live or where any valuable resources are.
yes, many people in Western countries still imagine russia as a more civilised country than it really is. That’s where the discussion on peace talks comes from. We cannot talk to russians after what they did to our cities, people, our economy, our nature. We’ll be sorting this out for decades…
@@katdash5300 The Ukrainian identity has now been forged in modern war. Now more than ever it needs to remove any USSR and Russian symbols from its streets. Any Russian that thinks what has happened has not lost touch with reality, they are not even in reality. I look forwards to Ukraine standing tall and proud over Russia. ❤❤
The 2 main problems here are that: 1) Unless Russia does not get pushed out entirely out of Ukrainian territory Russia will not aknowledge that they lost the war and therefore there cant be peace negotiations. 2) Ukraine needs to acomplish an absolute defeat of Russia and push them out of their territory otherwhise Russia will just break the peace AGAIN and start another war in a couple years. Why are some western politicians pushing for peace? Its simple. This war means that a lot of western countries are hit economically and therefore those politicians will eventually lose voters in the next elections due to a worsening of their countries finances.
waiting for Danish subtitles to practice the language a bit I know I am weird but I do that By watching your videos I both enjoy he analisis and learn some Danish meanwhile
Wow. I wouldn't be caught dead in a foxhole with anyone who gives an enemy just as much reason I should die as the enemy should. To pretend no human is born with a sense of judicial sentiment where justice is seen to be carried out shows a disturbing level of imperious ignorance.
I wish the politicians in the West would grow balls. I don't want their hesitation to encourage Russia to drop a nuclear bomb or even, in the worst case scenario, to accidentally start a real nuclear war.
Anders mentioned that neither side really wants to negotiate right now. I don't think that's true. I think Russia/Putin knows full well that he's losing, and that his margin of loss is only going to get worse the longer this goes on. He is serious about wanting negotiations. 1) Negotiations often come with cease fires. A cease fire helps Russia as it freezes the conflict and gives Russia the opportunity to resupply, reinforce, dig-in, etc. Even if they go nowhere, time and momentum are on the Ukrainian side. Negotiations reduces that advantage. 2) Russia has a long history (as many autocrats and great powers do) of using false peace accords to cover for the next assault. He has in fact been doing that in Ukraine for 8 years. In the west, we often talk about this war starting in March. It starting in 2014. It never stopped, it just went from a quick surprise invasion of Crimea to a low intensity proxy conflict with out-of-uniform Russian soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk to a high intensity invasion this year. Russia is trying the same trick again because it's worked MULTIPLE times already. 3) Negotiated peace deals usually don't change the facts on the ground. Any deal would likely cement Russia's current holdings which would be an epic win for Putin as compared with where he's likely to be in 6-9 months...which could well include him being dead following a coup. But if he can walk away an point at large material gains, he then has a success to sell. So I think Russia is serious. It wants negotiations. Just not negotiations on Ukraine's terms.
Great video. I would like to read more about the idea that the purpose of war is to clarify a power relationship. Did it come from some famous theorist?
In the modern world, some "political posturing" is needed in these cases. Parties, and especially Ukraine, must be prepared to set up peace talks for simple reasons of political appearance. The distance between parties is so large that no peace talk can build bridges in any case, but Zelensky's attitude (now modified) of "no talks" doesn't politically sit well with part of the public opinion in Europe and possibly the US. Some "theatre" is necessary. In the first weeks of the war there were "peace talks", which were totally useless since minute 1 and were the result of mere political posturing. Zelensky could use his availability for peace talks (provided ALL his conditions are satisfied, of course) to stress that Ukraine is the victim and to raise political support in Europe. Denying the mere possibility of talks doesn't make Ukraine any good, politically, in Europe. In many respects, Zelensky is an amateur politician and he is certainly prone to incur in political mistakes that other politicians (with less guts but more political experience) would avoid. "Peace talks" and "peace" are two very distant concepts.
I think the Ukrainian list needs to include a demilitarized zone on the Russian side of the border of at least the reach of the Russian cruise missiles
I also think that Ukraine needs to have included a dozen of tactical nukes in its list of requests. Facts has proven that no treaties nor agreements warranted by third parties and written on a piece of paper are going to protect Ukraine in the future with this kind of "neighbor". A handful of small nuclear devices in the form of cruise missiles or of a small suitcase that you can load in the trunk of a Lada to be parked near the Red Square in Moskow, should be enough to deter any other attempt by Thugistan to pull another stunt like this ever again.
1. Do wars normally end in negotiations? I haven't done the tallies, but the wars I can think of ended with a unilateral surrender/ defeat of one side, and victory of the other. 2. All this talk of the appearances is good and well enough, but too much of it starts to sound like "nothing's real" here. (So the invasion - directed at complete overthrow - wasn't real / was just a move by someone who has fantasies of being a "war chess grand master" - a game.) The "game" aspects might be useful analytical tools, but they don't displace ordinary realities. The "game theory of it all" is not reality, it's a way of making calculations. 3. On a similar line, while one aspect of a rational model of the conflict might be that it's just like any fight between two little boys in a playground, in which the relative strength of the parties is establish, I can't see how that can be the whole of it. It's too much of a reduction. For starters, this could very well be one of those "tests of strength" where the will to fight to the very last is what amounts to "strength", if it has to come down to that. If it's a struggle for survival (of the do or die kind) then while Russia's version of "strength" might be to demonstrate to everyone that it's like the kid who wants the smaller kid's lunch, and will do what it takes to demonstrate that kind of "strength", while Ukraine's strength (or the only option Ukrainians get reduced down to) becomes something like "I'd rather be dead than live in a place run by you". Sounds bloody minded, but you could easily see this conflict as one in which the Russian version of "winning" involves a defeat that never ends for the Ukrainians. It's maybe an extreme example, but you could be looking at something that's more like the kind of defeat the Nazis wanted to inflict on those they hated the most, than say the British defeat of the Boers back in the day - after the more ruthless measures had been applied. (Difference being that in the one case, once they were done they tried to leave behind an intact, reasonably independent country, whereas in the other, there was a kind of "hate-victory" over the minorities singled out for that. If someone wants to do that to you, and you know or suspect it, you don't have any option but to just keep on fighting. If they're overwhelmingly powerful, make them bleed as you die. 4. It's also not down to two individuals. On the Russian side, yes, there's just their dictator (as some Russians call him); on the Ukrainian side, you have a very influential president, who has to consult with equals - at least at the moment. 5. Not mentioned: General Winter. I've been told he's decided to fight on the side of the Ukrainians this year? If so, it would seem a very bad time to start deciding what to surrender before the end of Winter. Once the Winter Advantage has ended, they might be able to negotiate more favourable terms. And then there's the "not my problem" faction, I suppose. The enemy within, one might say. They might indeed drop Ukraine for "peace". I don't see how that alters Ukraine's long term position. They still have to keep preparing for the next war, and for the real possibility that all "peace" offers this Winter is a break for Russia to prepare the next war better. In the medium term that would mean continuing fighting. And then next year, maybe drop Moldova. Or Kazakhstan. Or Mongolia. Or whoever is Next. (Ceteris parabis? ) To my mind, ambiguous communications would be the worst thing Zelensky could do right now. (Talk "peace" - meaning a partial surrender - while somehow still conducting a war.) That would confuse his supporters in and outside of the country. Yes, a war ends in a peace - generally a "peace" it's quite disgusting to contemplate - but to survive, everyone need to be in "stupid animal fight mode". And given the risk of the Russian interpretation of a "peace" as just a truce, isn't he just stating the factual position they're stuck in? Russia wants a war, and if someone wants to be your enemy in life, there's no way to refuse this. Russia doesn't just want the territories they've seized up till now. So there you are, stuck with a war - unilaterally imposed, and only possible to end by Russia somehow unilaterally becoming more peaceful (and I don't just mean telling more "peace lies"). There's asymmetry there, too. All Ukraine wants is peace (and real peace is a restoration of the _status quo ante bellum_ just like real peace with the schoolyard bully would require him to give you back the lunch he stole from you.) What Russia really wants is control of the whole of Ukraine. (Actions speak louder than words, and we've seen them in action before their first defeats.) So really what the "peace" crowd are saying is that actual Peace is Impossible, and Ukraine must settle for a bundle of promises and a lesser defeat than annihilation (this year). Who's going to "win"? Well for starters, nobody. Not anybody. Even if Russia managed to take control of the whole of Ukraine it would be necessary to ensure that Russia suffers for this. For at least a few decades. No business as usual. But given that hopelessness all round, this might turn out to be a "lion vs honey badger" situation? So far that's how it's worked out.
Here is the peace i want: Russia out of ukraine - including crimea. Reperations payed from russia to ukraine. Under UN supervision - russia can Evaluation everyone how wants to live in russia. Also, every ukrainian at the moment in russia must be allowed to return to ukraine. The amoungt of reperations is negotiable.
Even in the highly unlikely scenario that Ukraine were to negotiate, the Russian Federation has proven itself abjectly untrustworthy. Their adherence to conventions and treaties is essentially nonexistent.
Knowing this, why doesn't Gen. Milley STFU?? It's not his job to talk like that.
Most concerning is that the war outcome depends on the US, not merely NATO. Given the US record over the last 30 years, it's not very comforting. The US has a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and if that happens this time, it is basically curtains for the US and the west. Not saying it will necessarily, but it could happen.
@@cliffc2546 Well spoken, it was an idiotic move by him to voice that opinion.
It's just slightly below average in that regard.
For example?
@@Princip666 Budapest memorandum - Ukraine gave up nukes for territorial security agreements. Invasion of Crimea with "Little Green Men" followed by following the Minsk accords (agreement in attempt to deal with Donetsk and Luhansk issues). Russia's word and the international community commitments don't tend to hold up.
There is also the factor of the Russians being just completely insincere in their communication. It is pretty clear from all their actions that any negotiation would be in bad faith anyway. Even if Putin offered Zelensky to negotiate with no conditions, would anyone really believe that it´s not just a plot by Russia to play for time?
Certainly not the Ukranians or the Baltic States. I was going to say "not in Europe" but then I remembered Macron and Schultz soooooo.....
@Geopolitix I think that has more to do with those two’s personal cowardice than any broad opinion in either country.
@@Muljinn I expect that's probably right. But if the population gets heated up enough, hopefully the cowardice can be challenged. But there's a few moving parts to that scenario for it to come to pass. If the opposition politicians start really sticking their boots about the foot dragging in I'll be more encouraged.
@@geopolitix7770 pro-Ukraine folks need to start putting up ads in German and French media showing the Russian war crimes. That would stiffen spines quickly.
Mind you, not describing, not telling, *showing*. Pictures of the dead and wounded. Videos of disarming booby traps to recover the bodies of dead women who were raped so they can be buried.
@@Muljinn I am not so sure. I think it´s more that they´re trying to position themselves to potentially be the ones to broker a peace deal. If it works, they will be hailed as heroes. If it doesn´t, they can always say they meant well at least. In my view, it´s just pure political calculation.
If we negotiate on Russia's terms here we are mortgaging our future.
Indeed.
Russia needs to lose this war. Completely.
If it has any gains, it will try again, and others like China will as well.
ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. We had 8 years to train and arm the Ukrainians after Crimea was invaded. The result is Russia getting its ass kicked. WHY negotiate now.
RussianZ will continue to filtrate Ukrainians, whether Ukraine fights or not. Any treaty or cease fire will only give RussianZ an advantage.
Flushing, would be more correct. This war is existential for the US whether the public understands it or not.
Who is we?
I really appreciate your dispassionate approach. I mean on the one hand you are passionate about reality, but not passionate about proving prior beliefs to be correct. As a science teacher, I consider you a scientist at heart.
As an American, I can say nobody I talk with agrees with Mark Milley. It is simply Ukraine wins and gets its territory back and Russia loses and pays. I have not talked to anyone who feels differently. Cynically, we also agree that this relatively small investment in helping Ukraine is perhaps the biggest military bargain of all time, as they have decimated and exposed Russia. Just the knowledge gained in this war was worth the money, if not for the Ukrainian lives.
Yes, the dollar/euro cost is a bargain.
The Ukranian live cost is a tragedy.
Milley is a disgrace.
@@andrewharrison8436 agreed. But, it would likely be worse without the West’s investment, as most of the Ukrainians would rather fight this the death than be ruled by Russia. (Lived in Kyiv 2 years, many friends from Donbas who fought on the front lines in 2014-15.)
Unpopular counter argument. The Westbshould pay for rebuilding Ukraine and there should be no reparations. Why?
Germany 1918...
@@aaronbaker2186 the counter argument would be to not allow Russians to rearm like Germany was allowed to do. As for the crushing of the Russian economy, most Russians live so badly outside of a few cities, they might not even notice.
The only thing to negotiate is the amount of reparations RF must commit to, AFTER they have withdrawn 100% from pre-2014 positions.
Sure, Ukraine is almost done and Russians will for some inexplicable reason start retreating.🤣
@@Princip666 Please mind Russians already started to retreat.
There are several other things that must be negotiated. The most important thing is the return of Ukrainians that Russia has kidnapped. The second is Russia handing over war criminals.
It’s worth mentioning that once Russia is forcibly ejected from all of Ukraine, that Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of leverage to negotiate reparations, return of Ukrainian hostages, or turning over war criminals. The parties with leverage are those countries that have been waging the economic war against Russia. Russia wants sanctions and embargoes lifted. It will want to resume trade and normal economic relations. What is Putin willing to trade for such concessions? Will he allow extradition of field commanders and lower level generals? Many would think never, but they forget that Putin is a greedy villain. He wants his yacht back.
@@mariaf.6601 He’s going to say that the USSR retreated from the Nazis and won the war, completely ignoring that in the current war, the Russians are playing the role the Nazis and Ukraine, in defending its own soil, plays the role of the Soviets. In short, he’s delusional and ignorant. He really believes that Zelensky is a Nazi. He used to claim it anyway. When someone is that ridiculous, it’s hard to tell what they actually believe.
@@Princip666 lol, funny Russian troll. Not as funny as the Russian army though. Biggest joke in the world after Russian state!
I think you have this spot on, as always!
Although I'm someone in the west who's concerned about the war and unnecessary deaths and because of that.... I wish to god we would all give whatever Ukraine needs to push Russia out of Ukraine and have a clear victory. Thank you from the UK 🇬🇧....
thank you very much for your position! I’m Ukrainian, currently in UK and I really feel this super strong support of Ukraine❤️❤️❤️
I fully support peace talks...after every Russian soldier is out of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.
Terrific program, as usual. Thank you. I wonder, as an amateur, if the politicians and the Military in the West are suggesting negotiations mainly to “appear” that attempts at peace are being made ? They may not really want a bad settlement for Ukraine. They must be very aware that Putin and his criminal cabinet would re-arm and attack Ukraine again in a few months or a few years. So, in my opinion, there may not be a serious intention in the West to do a poor job and call a truce after so much effort has already been made to stop Russia. It is a shame to see such a bloodbath affecting BOTH sides, including the the terrible harm to the Ukrainian ordinary citizens. I think this is a golden opportunity for the Americans to destroy as much of the Russian military as possible. Russia is a nuisance to the world. Once again, it is a shame that there is so much harm done to BOTH countries ! Don’t negotiate with the Russians until they are driven out completely. RS. Canada
Great analysis as always! Thanks Anders!
Thanks, Jake.
Brilliant, it makes a lot of sense. I personally think that any sort of negotiation is premature at the moment but signaling the willingness to talk supports the moral high ground, even if Zelenzki doesn't budge from his demands
👍 100%.
Zalenski has made it clear he welcomes peace talks just as soon as no Russian troops are in Ukraine.
Do the Europeans and Americans who want Ukraine to negotiate imagine that a good-hearted Putin will turn on the gas, and everything will be like it was before?
That will not happen, and Europeans can NEVER depend on Russia again for strategic resources like energy.
@Marc van den Boogaard they could rely on Europe?
If the EU announced a trillion Euro initiative to build nuclear and renewable energy accross Europe they could replace a lot of gas power. It would also drive down prices for natural gas and oil (less demand, lower price) so it would be a win-win. The investment would easily pay for itself.
Thank you Professor Nielsen for this and your live stream (yes, I watched both) . I really wish more people in the west could understand how disastrous peace talks would be at this time. As you've more articulately expressed: the signal to Russia of wavering western support, the demoralizing effect on Ukrainian defenders, the potential for Russia to strengthen itself, the inevitable Russian duplicity under Putin and most importantly the drawing out of the conflict at the cost of innocent Ukrainian lives all point to peace talks now being a huge mistake. The sad truth is that Russia must be punished more before any legitimate and lasting peace can be contemplated.
Sadly, spot on!
Another sad issue is that it may make sense for Ukraine to leave some of the Donbas in Russian hands until the peace talks. Why? So Ukraine can attack and kill Russian troops, keeping the war "hot," so the Russian public can't ignore it.
If Ukraine pushes Russia out, Russia can lob missiles at Ukrainian hospitals for 20 years...
Thanks for analysis. Greatings from Slovakia! Slava Ukrajine...
Thumb up :)
Sláma u kravína, prober se, ten člověk je úplně mimo.
@@Princip666 Kto je mimo? Myslis toho danskeho analytika? Tento clovek je zaroven dostojnikom danskeho namornictva a Rusku sa venuje na akademickej urovni celu svoju karieru.
@@Princip666 Mimo? Konkretne v com? Ci si len rudy rusky troll? V tom pripade je kazdy mimo kto nesuhlasi so stranickym fanatizmom.
@@pedroprague Fanatikovi profesionalitu nevysvetlis, co sa nezhoduje s jeho svetonazorom, resp. nepodporuje rusko ten je mimo, nezavisle na realite. Proste je ake su data, vystup je stale ten isty..
You are on of the most valuable voices on UA-cam on military and geopolitical matters.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
Agree. I don’t see a lot of politicians in West pushing for peace negotiations other than General Miley. I thought his response very concerning. To get to negotiations. Ukraine needs more weapons and Russia to know that the west will not waiver. Thank you for the video
You need to listen to ALL of Milleys his comments - he is basically keeping all the options opens and is fully supportive of the US administration position that there can be no negotiations without the agreement of Ukraine
@@brucemcpherson8832 I did watch ALL of his comments and the assessment I made was that it was not as supportive as it should have been.as opposed to Lloyd Austin. That is my personal take. I watched the entire press conference
Zelenskyy had painted himself into a corner, Milley pointed out the obvious, which is Ukraine should give the Ruzzian Fascists a chance to withdraw, rather than press their human wave tactics.
The Moskals were feigning a desire for peace so Zelenskyy's plan was needed to expose the sham.
Now Milley gave Blinken & Sullivan a way to open the issue, as "fighting all the way to Moscow" is not a viable plan.
Biden can just explain Milley's a military guy, but it's an opportunity to screw Vladolf Pootin up some more
I think it was mostly about timing. Milley expressed the White House line pretty well, but a few days too late. At that point, Zelensky had already responded to the signals from the Biden administration, and Milley's statements made it look like Ukraine hadn't done enough.
@@anderspuck Milley was out of line. He is not SOD. That's Austin, and Austin, though he only said it once, is down with crushing the Russian military so it doesn't threaten its neighbors again.
The western pressure on Ukraine to negotiate baffles me. How many of his citizens do these people expect for Zelensky to sell out just so we can buy cheap gas again? Do they really think that a triumphant Putin is going to say "Ok. These parts of Ukraine are enough. I'm happy with my empire now and I'm going to leave everyone alone from now on."
Because the people in the west are weak spoiled brats who have very little tolerance for adversity. Putin will eat all of Europe and the US for breakfast in the long run.
Yep totally agree. Hoping for the best. Just worried U.S. is going to slowly back away.
- "The western pressure on Ukraine to negotiate baffles me."
What western pressure? Do you mean some ordinary people on the forums or governments. If you mean the latter, are we talking about the same war? The pressure has been almost non-existent. A few slight hints to that direction, but if you watched the video, you should have noticed (as it was clearly and intelligently explained), that those hints are mostly just for the domestic audience, and meant to feel that the peace is not an idea that has been totally rejected. Rest assured that the western governments don't want to see Russia to be able to attack its neighbours and cause other trouble at least for the next fifty years, preferably never. That means that Russia has to suffer not a fast defeat, but a total, exhausting defeat that removes from it its resources and capabilities to in the future build a well performing army. If the war ends too soon, Russia may again rise as a threat, with all the lessons it has learned from this war.
@@adoatero5129 Totally agree but if "Russia has to suffer...." what that really means is "Russians" WILL suffer. Therein lies the Western moral dichotomy.
@@jaemate21 That's what Putin thinks/hopes. He's going to be disabused of that notion... unless he thinks he can be like the Afghans or the N. Vietnamese and hold out for 20 years.
As Winston Churchill said “You can’t negotiate with a tiger when your head in in its mouth’. The British will stand firm as will the Polls, the Nordic countries, The Netherlands and Canada. America will also stand firm this time despite the few appeasers in their ranks.
The Poles 🇵🇱🤝🇺🇦
The poles are next. Of course they won't negotiate.
Easy for everybody to say negotiate when they are not the ones not being bombed every day. What Russia is doing to Ukraine is sickening. If they were hitting military targets then it's all good. But they are wasting civilians lives for something they are not gonna change. How can you kill the innocent and expect them to give in. There is a whole country that has to give in and Ukraine isn't gonna give in.
I would add the Baltic States, the Czechs and Slovakia to the "stand firm" list. Too bad we have a few European Chamberlains though. But enough of us will stand firm for Ukraine to win.
While not denying some people in the US might want to see negotiations, I can confidently say they are VERY few. Everybody sees this war as an attempt by Russia to reassert its control over neighbors. Everybody sees this must be stopped.
I think it's really important that Russia gets nothing from their aggression/terrorism besides economic ruin, death, and misery. There isn't room in the modern world for Putin or others of his ilk. Russia needs _REFORM_ and unfortunately this war is the beginning of that process. Any kind of negotiated settlement where Russia gets even a tiny % of what they want would be a disastrous result IMO.
I couldn't agree more
This war may decide what the rest of the 21st century will look like
Russia is old. So old that it's power culture has grown deep-seated roots back centuries. I would agree if Russian history didn't teach us that if Russsia is going to commit to an agreement of any kind they will have to get some kind of assurance and visible positive attribute out of it. In short. Putin will never give up. Give in. Do anything that pleases the west. He has the stamina to proof it.
Until he gets thrown out a window by oligarchs fed up with his costly, delusional vanity project.
@@charisma-hornum-fries I am not sure where you get this "so old" sentiment -- France, Britain are both quite a bit older then Russia. As for "putin will never give up", only one way to find out, and we are in a discovery process as we speak.
@@charisma-hornum-fries the flip side is that Russia has to be an Empire. Half their land is held by people who want to leave Russia. If Russia gets too weak, say by getting the Russian military destroyed in Ukraine, those areas may think the time to be free is now.
Another issue is the Russian economy, their ability to fight a war is, like most nations, based on economic power. I half-joke that when Biden said he wanted Russia out of the G20 he wasn't saying the group should eject Russia, he was saying he wanted the Russian GDP to drop to #21 or lower. It kinda looks like that will happen.
Or Xi will puppet Russia and use them to help fight India.
Thanks, clear.
Thanks for restructuring your livestream. I was able to view this format, but lacked the patience for the other
Good to know. I was unsure whether people would appreciate this excerpt or get annoyed that I posted the same content.
I appreciate it. I want your analysis but sometimes I have an hour or more and sometimes I don’t. And no offense, but there are only two to whom I guarantee an hour: Perun and Tim Snyder’s Ukrainian history course at Yale. I promise you that if your presentations are 30 minutes or less, I will 100% watch ASAP. Longer than that, I might watch or I might keep putting it off.
All that might sound like a back-handed compliment, so let me be clear: I value your thinking, your work, and your knowledge. I respect and appreciate you.
Yep
@@MarcosElMalo2 One thing about Anders' uploads are that they are usually just as valuable tomorrow as they are today. So if a video should be a bit "too long" and we don't have time for it the first couple of days there is no reason to skip it if we can watch it at a later time. Furthermore as he doesn't upload on daily basis, if we are few days later we will most probably only have his newest video in wait for us anyway. Thanks for the kind words to my countryman.
@@MarcosElMalo2 There is also a big difference between what content there is in a video. My livestream was mostly a Q&A session, and that's very different from a Perun video.
The major part is that Ukraine's future security has to be assured, and that means Russia has to climb down from "Ukraine isn't a country" and "Russian Empire 3.0, Yo!". Until that is guaranteed, then I see no starting point for any negotiations that are not just a ten year truce.
I do wonder after the war is ended, if Ukraine does not join NATO then there would need to be a multi national troop presence in the country. There is going to be no point where Russia does not remain a threat.
@Mark Hewitt it's not needed. Finland will become a member state soon enough. It's also more likely that Ukraine will become an EU member. Because the EU will pay for just about all rebuilding. Otherwise, it will become difficult to control fully as big Corp wants the business.
@@charisma-hornum-fries russia will pay. Reparations
RuZZia very much, genuinely wants negotiations... So they can rebuild and retrain their army over the winter.
Very difficult to negotiate with a party, who is not an honest broker and clearly stated in their personal manifesto, their denial of your identity and nationhood. They will only use talks at this time to unravel the supporting parties.
I check daily for your new videos. Above all the noise, we really need and appreciate your expert analysis and personable nature/ presentation skills. THANK YOU ANDERS!
Exactly my hunch too! It’s all about communication and playing chess. Zelensky has been open to negotiations both before Feb 24 and after and the signals from Russia have been chauvinistic, insincere and uncompromising, even theatrically cruel at times (poisoned Abramovic, bombed Kyiv during Guiterrez visit, threatened to seal the exits of Azovstal) and then there is no point, and conditions need to be reshaped. I am convinced that Ukraine has been pragmatic about it all along. Another thing Zelensky needs to balance: public opinion in Ukraine.
This is very complex topic with a lot of moving parts, so kudos to Anders for providing a pedagogical and lucid breakdown.
Excellent and comprehensive with great insight. Zelensky is playing a difficult part in all of this, as are western heads of state. Honestly, we are lucky to have democratic leadership in our executive branch of government and can’t imagine how messy this could all be if the orange #45 guy were still in office - any member of that party as president would make it extremely difficult to have confidence in our support for Ukraine for this war. Biden, Blinken, etc. have gotten pretty good at making you wonder if much of the announced support has been in the chamber for awhile. Its difficult to imagine the announcement of something that will take another 6 months of logistics and training, etc. after it had been requested a year ago. Hopefully there is a dance that they have been playing since the beginning that set things in motion that we will see sooner than later.
On a side note - Many of us far western cowboys don’t have the knack for understanding the subtlety of inter EU policies, which may be a good topic for a video - I imagine it’s akin to the way the states of the United States operate, but with a sovereignty that makes most of their domestic policies strictly homogenous to their identities as nations, except in cases where that policy oppresses/marginalizes its own, which would probably prevent any entry into the union and so is not an issue … I suppose that’s what we are hearing (not enough) about with Ukraine and it’s application to the long process.
The states of the US and their independent legislatures along with federal representatives that are elected to be the voice of their states are becoming more wiling to exploit vulnerable people and sensitive topics to be elevated to a status that is either extremely embarrassing and transparently sad or super ultra awesome and subversively entitled to everything republicans have grievances over, which are %99 imagined.
Thanks for pulling this out as an excerpt Anders. Great move to have this analysis more accessible and I think it's a topic that's only going to get more important over the winter
It's amazing how Russias demands are decreasing along with their losses on the battlefield.
Thank you from Ukraine 🇺🇦 I always watch your videos for high quality structured analysis of the situation, because surely I’m reading hundreds of small pieces of news daily😑
At least in Germany I see that now only a very few people are talking about negotiations. Half a year ago much more were demanding peace nogitiations but most this extreem left politicions gave up this position. Now only the right Party continue it.
Good to hear. I also think Russia's air strikes on Ukraine's power infrastructure reduce the sentiment that Ukraine should negotiate.
Marita Schweizer, as a German I'm glad that the votes now against negotiations. Steinmeier has corrected himself in an Interview and said very clear is not time for negotiations and that his assumption in 2014 was wrong. 🌻
Many Leftists still have nostalgia for USSR and Old Guard Socialists still tainted by Stalinism meanwhile many Rightists have admiration for "tough guy" Big Daddy Putin, think Might is Right and are still believers that RuZZia is a mighty military ...and think he's hero coz he's against multiculturalism, gays etc
very good news, thank you (from Ukraine)
@@katdash5300 stay strong this winter. Next year you can celebrate victory.
I think there is always a baseline desire for normalcy. No war is normal, so after a bit, people start asking why its not over yet. There is also a tendency for people to blame those they have influence over for things rather than the guilty party.
Like an abused spouse ... maybe if you didn't talk that way, maybe if you didn't dress so attractively, maybe if you stayed home more ... maybe the abused can control the abuser ... yea, that doesn't work. Ever.
Unfortunately war or conflicts seems to be a ingrained part of humanity's well trodden path. But we strive, my god we do strive for peace and pasture.
@@sumiland6445 or a rape victim.
I wish no war was normal again in the US. Millennials have never lived in a time of peace. Even it's not a hot war, it's a proxy war or at least us droning, bombing or special forcing someone.
@@TheIndianaGeoff Small-scale conflict like that has been normal for tens of thousands of years. Only the methods have changed. The US didn't invent conflict.
I hope my country sends everything Ukrainians need, all that we've promised and then some, ASAP!! Ukraine must endure the winter! We can help make sure that happens. 💛💙💜💙💛
Enduring the winter is a problem for the Russians. Ukrainians might even take back Crimea in the winter :)
@@megasbaladoros God willing! 🤗💖
Slava Ukraine!
Slava Ukraini 🇦🇺 🇺🇦
Heroyam Slava! Thank you from Ukraine! 🇦🇺 🇺🇦
Sláva Ukrayíni ! Glory to the Heroes ! Russian understands only brute force. Russia is not trustworthy. To give up territory to Russia abandons the Ukrainians to Russia left. Ukraine is not close to losing, Russia is. Your logic is correct. Russia is not as strong as they thought they were.
Ohh YES! Thank you!
Other youtubers must do same story!
Peace talks are perfectly reasonable if they only two topics for negotiation are 1) facilitating Puzzia’s complete withdrawal from all of Ukraine and 2) a schedule for reparations. Everyone should be willing to talk about those two things at any time. Cause that is the only way this conflict ends.
Thank you for this upload
Thank you for the objective and level headed analysis.
Negotiating with Russia would be like negotiating with a neanderthal far beyond stone age mentality.
"Вечный мир длится до следующей войны" - Russian Proverb.
("Eternal peace only lasts until the next war")
Always thoughtful. Thank you Anders.
Negotiating peace with the Kremlin Crime Syndicate is like asking a person with dysentery not to stop shitting and vomiting all over the place.
The way we secured a lasting peace and a real change of heart from Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan was by insisting on unconditional surrender. This is what we should demand from Russia, or else we will just have to go through this again and again.
Yes, but how do you get Russia to surrender unconditionally? I don’t think it’s possible while Russia has nuclear weapons. When Germany surrendered unconditionally, Berlin was already overrun. Japan surrendered because the two atomic bombs demonstrated that they could be annihilated. What actual leverage do you think could be applied to force Russia’s unconditional surrender.
I agree that unconditional surrender by Russia is desirable, but it’s not a realistic goal.
@@MarcosElMalo2 I know - the situation is quite different. Japan surrendered and accepted military occupation and rehabilitation partly so the USSR wouldn't invade. Perhaps if it looked like China might seize Siberia and the Russian military were one thoroughly beaten than today, they might just see a deal like that as the lesser of the evils, especially if we remind them how well the Axis powers did post-WW II. Putin would have to go of course.
I agree 100% Anders, suggestion of peace negotiations by any reasonable country as not serious, just to appease "peace at any cost voters" --
EXCEPT FRANCE. France does not give a darn about foreign countries like Ukraine. Yes, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are also too cheap to donate to Ukraine's war effort, but France is the one speaking out recommending we all give up and letting Putin take yet another slice of Ukraine.
Russia needs to exit Ukraine and restore the borders it agreed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. Only then can peace negotiations mean anything. Otherwise, Putin will continue taking the countries and regions surrounding Russia slice by slice.
To be exact, all of the countries did donate to Ukraine.
If it could be more, it's another question.
I find it strange that there’s no mention of Zelenskyy’s need to “communicate to home front” and rally the Ukrainian population to super human effort and endurance in the face of staggering danger. If he were to says anything pointing towards giving in to ANY Russian claim the war effort would be jeopardized
I agree with you. But I think that Zelensky is aiming both at the Russians and his own population when showing that Ukraine is strong and will not bend. They both require the same message.
Zelensky knows that he is dealing with a thug mentality government, that relies on the fascist ideology of strength above everything else.
The Kremlin however has a big problem. It's clearly the stronger party, but its strength would make it the greatest outcast of all times, even a tactical nuke is beyond the limits. Thus, using its nukes is not an option, as every country with nukes in their arsenal will feel the heat, not only from their own people. If Russia would use even one of them, everyone would be after them, besides maybe a mad little dictator in NK.
This however necessitates Ukraine to put Russia into a weak position, as everything else would be considered a win for Russia by this point, that fooling their chosen opponents into a false sense of security still works.
As much as I want the needless loss of life to end. For the next decades, if not century, it is imperative that Russia truly loses this war. Everything else would only delay the inevitable Russian imperialist believes and further wars connected with it. Which we already have seen with Chechnya and Georgia.
A lot will depend on the next months, if Russia manages to recover from its disastrous war this year and if the mobiks can change the course of war. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive human wave tactics next year, in order to regain lost ground. If such an approach would change anything is a different matter.
Putin has taken care of that. If you ever want to make sure that a country won't surrender until every inch of their land is occupied by the attacker, bomb civilians and civilian infrastructure.
It isn't surprising that 90% of Ukrainians want to keep fighting until every Russian is driven out. It is surprising that 10% are willing to talk peace.
Thanks you for a very good analysis. This is partly the same as "William Spaniel" YT channel (also recommended) talks about in all his videos. We have to wait for one of the parts (most probably Russia) know that they are losing and it can't be reversed before we will see real attempts of peace negotiations. If we want ourselves and not Putin to decide our future I believe we must support Ukraine not only all that we can but *all that Ukraine needs* - and the figure out how to give that support.
Thanks, that was a great presentation!
Thanks for this video
Great video 👍 I definitely didnt realize a lot of the dynamics that were at play here before
Negotiations now will only serve to reward Russia and give them a sense of victory which they have not earned.
Thank you Anders, you are doing fine work.
Plain logic - thanks 👍
Thanks for uploading another video! I can't get enough of your analysis and I really enjoyed the last video about peace talks and learning of your background and credentials. Also, 'first'.
Russia does not negotiate in good faith. End of story.
I find the term “dispute” to be perhaps not be entirely applicable . If you and your neighbor can’t agree where your fence should go that is a dispute. If your neighbor comes over to your house with a loaded gun pointed at you that seems to be something different.
In your hypothetical, your neighbor is disputing your right to live and your ability to protect yourself. If a mugger tries to rob you, he is disputing your ownership of whatever money or valuables he wants to take with you. The mugger is disputing your ability to protect yourself and your valuables.
In both of these cases, the dispute has two components. The aggressors are disputing your rights (right to live or right of ownership), and they are disputing your ability to protect your rights.
Now it might be that your neighbor is just insane and kills you due to some hallucination or delusion or for the thrill of it. That might not be a dispute.
The Russians gave guarantees on Ukraine's security in the Budapest Memorandum in return for the destruction of former Soviet nuclear weapons that were based on Ukrainian territory. The two countries can get together to discuss the reparations Russia owes to Ukraine after Russia has complied with its existing commitments.
No stop to UKR offensive(s). They can talk if UKR wants but no cessation of hostilities. Keep the pressure on. If Putin wants to stop the fighting, GET OUT OF UKR! Slava Ukraini!
I have deja vu?
Did I not watch this already?
OK I see now. It's from the "live stream".
Phew!
War joke (bitter): At midnight Putin goes to the grave of Stalin:
What should i do?
The ghost of Stalin appears:
Sacrifice 500.000 young healthy Russians in the grinding meat war and paint the Kremlin in blue.
Putin asks? Why do i have to paint the Kremlin in blue?
Stalin laughs.
I knew the second bit was causing you problems.
You're seeming to imply that both sides are equally in war trying to dominate the other ... in an invasion only the aggressor is "trying to clarify a power relationship"/assert power/dominance. The invaded aggressed against side is only trying to clarify it's own power to resist, oppose, defeat that attempt at assertion of dominance.
Thank you once again for a great analysis, Anders!
Well done!
I really enjoyed the Q&A steam you did. As I recall it was your first time? I think it went great (at least as someone who watched it after the fact). Hoping you’ll do more soon!
Speaking for myself: As problems go, mine are small. I'm not driven from my home, I'm not in danger from bombs raining over my head, I've not lost any family members, I don't live under the rule of ogres. Heck, I've even still got my washing machine. We can not let the ukrainians down. They must have all the help they need to negotiate from strength and get their country back, and proper guarantees against any future threat. Anything less would be shameful.
Uhneš jednou, uhýbáš vždycky - You step away once, you will always step away.
Slava Ukrajine! 🇺🇦🇨🇿
To je pěkná sračka, co jsi tu vyblil, společně s tou náckovskou hláškou na konci. 🤮
@@Princip666 Jedinej nácek seš tu ty.
Spot on, as always.
You seem stressed out and ill-prepared for this video, Anders, are you OK?
I hope everything's OK, looking forward to more great content!
All the best, greetings from Norway 🙂
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Heroyam Slava 🇺🇦
💙💛💙💛💙💛💙
Now is not the time for peace talks, there is never a time for peace talks. Logic says there is a time for peace talks, however some things defy logic, plain and simple. Any peace talks would involve giving a piece of Ukraine to Russia. Which part of France do you suggest giving Russia Mr. Macron? Which part of the United States do you suggest that we give to Russia Mr. Milley? There are some things that defy logic, get used to it. This is one of them. You either will fight for your country, or you won't. Ukraine has shown that they will. We should support them with no limits, just as they should support us.
Thank you for another video. Can I just say how amazed I am by your English language skills!
But Ukraine is perfectly open for a peaceful diplomatic solution, all it takes is that Russia immediately announces a cease fire, and then leaves occupied territory. After that we can discuss just how much reparations Russia will pay for damages done, and repatriating the kidnapped Ukranians.
Thanks for sharing. I love your analysis.
As always: THANK YOU for this video 👍
It is obvious that Peace is a good idea, we have had years of the peace dividend and the corresponding economic progress.
This was backed up by peace treaties, guarantees of Ukranian sovereignty, Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons.
This has all become past tense it was a good idea until the invasion, now we have a Russia that it's leaders have demonstrated is untrustworthy. There is no middle ground for negotiation..
As a lifelong pacifist against the military industrial complex my position has become untenable. In looking for a "least bad" outcome there does need to be further attrition of the Russian military, I can't be happy about the destruction of unwilling conscripts but that seems to be inevitable.
I think the analysis that there needs to be more fighting is correct - to minimise the downsides it needs to be as one sided (in Ukrania's favour) as possible.
Hey Anders,
Excellent and informative channel you have here. I have a question you might be able to answer. There has been a lot of talk about providing the Ukrainian army with Leopard 2. tanks from European armies. According to good old fachion Wikipedia. The following European powers have Leopard tanks at their disposal in their arsenal.
Danmark - 44 Leopard 2A7
Finland - 91 Leopard 2A4,
Grækenland - 196 2A4.
Norge - 52 2A4NO,
Polen - 128 Leopard 2A4
Portugal - 38 2A6NL
Schweiz - 380 Leopard 2A4,
Singapore - 66 2A4
Spanien - 327 Leopard 2.
Sverige - 122 er aktiv.
Tyrkiet - 298 Leopard 2A4 købt af Tyskland.
Østrig - 114 Leopard 2A4
My question is: Is there any current talk about making a pool of leopard 2. tanks from European and sending them to Ukraine? And if there has been, where has it landed?
Excellent.
Peace? Russia decide , the can go home!
* Withdrawal
* Reparations
* Trials
Let the UAF lead the negotiations ✊️
Grazie, Anders... thorough & excellent as always! Perhaps much more uncertain given what we know about the workings of Kremlin, but sometime maybe you could also explore the same topic from the POV not only of Russia's demands and 'negotiating position', but also what's at stake for Putin, _personally._ Thx again!
Even as I absolutly don`t like the idea that the fighting has to continue and more people have to suffer before real talk about peace can begin, I have also to admit that your reasoning for this is spot on.
In Vietnam, there was an internal debate in Ministry of Foreign Affairs about Geneva Conference if what we did (choose peace and temporary division of country) is correct. Many of officials commented that is a mistake. We should have continued the war until the whole country is united, not by peace negotiations. Delayed the unification has costed us a lot more people's lives, time and other things.
I hope the Ukraine can learn from our lesson. Peace negotiation is an option only after they retake every single square of their territory, not now.
Very good theoretical analysis. BUT, there is more to this conflict than just a balancing out of actions and reactions. This is also about fundamental rights and wrongs and what is worth fighting for and what isn't. We have to consider whether the fight is just or unjust and whether the result is worth fighting for. Just to look at the balance of power and whether it is worth negotiating or not is too simplistic. We have to consider what sort of world we want to live in and what the result would be if we cave in before we need to. Let us remember that thousands of young men are laying their lives on the line for what they believe is right and we have to consider very carefully about whether we have the right to negotiate away something they are fighting and dying for. The fact is that the NATO alliance is far stronger than anything the Russians can come up with, and it really is time to start talking about winning rather than negotiating. In any case, there is no point in negotiating with the Russians. We have to remember that the Ukrainians negotiated away their nuclear weapons which would have protected them from this aggression. The fact is that the people currently running Russia have clearly demonstrated that they are a bunch of pathological liars who cannot be trusted in any kind of negotiation.
well said Brian
Very well put. People would do well to understand The Budapest Memorandum.
Putin wants the annexed areas to have a service route for crimea and black sea fleet simple ! Control over this area and sea ports and manipulate Ukraine 🇺🇦
Putin understands that Russia without Ukraine is very weak. He believed he could do a Hungary, Prague. - it would be easy
Very good presentation, thank you. I do feel that Russia has very different values on life compared to the West and we have see that in the living conditions of Russian villages. Why does the biggest country on earth, indeed the known universe, want more land when it can not develop what it already has? It still amazes me how Putin has grabbed so much power and that the Russian population has been sleep walking.
Because that land is empty and largely worthless to the Moscow elite. The cost of development and infill exceed any predicted gains in those regions.
It’s much the same reason most of Canada is largely undeveloped. Most of the country is too far away from where anyone wants to live or where any valuable resources are.
@@Muljinn such a shame they’d rather try plan B. It’s going to cost on many fronts eventually.
yes, many people in Western countries still imagine russia as a more civilised country than it really is. That’s where the discussion on peace talks comes from. We cannot talk to russians after what they did to our cities, people, our economy, our nature. We’ll be sorting this out for decades…
@@katdash5300 The Ukrainian identity has now been forged in modern war. Now more than ever it needs to remove any USSR and Russian symbols from its streets.
Any Russian that thinks what has happened has not lost touch with reality, they are not even in reality.
I look forwards to Ukraine standing tall and proud over Russia. ❤❤
thank you for this video… i get your points.
The 2 main problems here are that:
1) Unless Russia does not get pushed out entirely out of Ukrainian territory Russia will not aknowledge that they lost the war and therefore there cant be peace negotiations.
2) Ukraine needs to acomplish an absolute defeat of Russia and push them out of their territory otherwhise Russia will just break the peace AGAIN and start another war in a couple years.
Why are some western politicians pushing for peace? Its simple. This war means that a lot of western countries are hit economically and therefore those politicians will eventually lose voters in the next elections due to a worsening of their countries finances.
break the *peace again
in case you'd like to edit the post 😊
waiting for Danish subtitles to practice the language a bit
I know I am weird but I do that
By watching your videos I both enjoy he analisis and learn some Danish meanwhile
💙💛
Wow. I wouldn't be caught dead in a foxhole with anyone who gives an enemy just as much reason I should die as the enemy should. To pretend no human is born with a sense of judicial sentiment where justice is seen to be carried out shows a disturbing level of imperious ignorance.
I wish the politicians in the West would grow balls. I don't want their hesitation to encourage Russia to drop a nuclear bomb or even, in the worst case scenario, to accidentally start a real nuclear war.
Anders mentioned that neither side really wants to negotiate right now. I don't think that's true. I think Russia/Putin knows full well that he's losing, and that his margin of loss is only going to get worse the longer this goes on. He is serious about wanting negotiations.
1) Negotiations often come with cease fires. A cease fire helps Russia as it freezes the conflict and gives Russia the opportunity to resupply, reinforce, dig-in, etc. Even if they go nowhere, time and momentum are on the Ukrainian side. Negotiations reduces that advantage.
2) Russia has a long history (as many autocrats and great powers do) of using false peace accords to cover for the next assault. He has in fact been doing that in Ukraine for 8 years. In the west, we often talk about this war starting in March. It starting in 2014. It never stopped, it just went from a quick surprise invasion of Crimea to a low intensity proxy conflict with out-of-uniform Russian soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk to a high intensity invasion this year. Russia is trying the same trick again because it's worked MULTIPLE times already.
3) Negotiated peace deals usually don't change the facts on the ground. Any deal would likely cement Russia's current holdings which would be an epic win for Putin as compared with where he's likely to be in 6-9 months...which could well include him being dead following a coup. But if he can walk away an point at large material gains, he then has a success to sell.
So I think Russia is serious. It wants negotiations. Just not negotiations on Ukraine's terms.
Russia: we'll agree in writing to respect sovereignty and the territory of Ukraine!
Ukraine: didn't you do that in the 90s?
Great video. I would like to read more about the idea that the purpose of war is to clarify a power relationship. Did it come from some famous theorist?
In the modern world, some "political posturing" is needed in these cases. Parties, and especially Ukraine, must be prepared to set up peace talks for simple reasons of political appearance. The distance between parties is so large that no peace talk can build bridges in any case, but Zelensky's attitude (now modified) of "no talks" doesn't politically sit well with part of the public opinion in Europe and possibly the US. Some "theatre" is necessary. In the first weeks of the war there were "peace talks", which were totally useless since minute 1 and were the result of mere political posturing. Zelensky could use his availability for peace talks (provided ALL his conditions are satisfied, of course) to stress that Ukraine is the victim and to raise political support in Europe. Denying the mere possibility of talks doesn't make Ukraine any good, politically, in Europe. In many respects, Zelensky is an amateur politician and he is certainly prone to incur in political mistakes that other politicians (with less guts but more political experience) would avoid. "Peace talks" and "peace" are two very distant concepts.
I think the Ukrainian list needs to include a demilitarized zone on the Russian side of the border of at least the reach of the Russian cruise missiles
I also think that Ukraine needs to have included a dozen of tactical nukes in its list of requests. Facts has proven that no treaties nor agreements warranted by third parties and written on a piece of paper are going to protect Ukraine in the future with this kind of "neighbor". A handful of small nuclear devices in the form of cruise missiles or of a small suitcase that you can load in the trunk of a Lada to be parked near the Red Square in Moskow, should be enough to deter any other attempt by Thugistan to pull another stunt like this ever again.
1. Do wars normally end in negotiations? I haven't done the tallies, but the wars I can think of ended with a unilateral surrender/ defeat of one side, and victory of the other.
2. All this talk of the appearances is good and well enough, but too much of it starts to sound like "nothing's real" here. (So the invasion - directed at complete overthrow - wasn't real / was just a move by someone who has fantasies of being a "war chess grand master" - a game.) The "game" aspects might be useful analytical tools, but they don't displace ordinary realities. The "game theory of it all" is not reality, it's a way of making calculations.
3. On a similar line, while one aspect of a rational model of the conflict might be that it's just like any fight between two little boys in a playground, in which the relative strength of the parties is establish, I can't see how that can be the whole of it. It's too much of a reduction. For starters, this could very well be one of those "tests of strength" where the will to fight to the very last is what amounts to "strength", if it has to come down to that. If it's a struggle for survival (of the do or die kind) then while Russia's version of "strength" might be to demonstrate to everyone that it's like the kid who wants the smaller kid's lunch, and will do what it takes to demonstrate that kind of "strength", while Ukraine's strength (or the only option Ukrainians get reduced down to) becomes something like "I'd rather be dead than live in a place run by you".
Sounds bloody minded, but you could easily see this conflict as one in which the Russian version of "winning" involves a defeat that never ends for the Ukrainians. It's maybe an extreme example, but you could be looking at something that's more like the kind of defeat the Nazis wanted to inflict on those they hated the most, than say the British defeat of the Boers back in the day - after the more ruthless measures had been applied. (Difference being that in the one case, once they were done they tried to leave behind an intact, reasonably independent country, whereas in the other, there was a kind of "hate-victory" over the minorities singled out for that. If someone wants to do that to you, and you know or suspect it, you don't have any option but to just keep on fighting. If they're overwhelmingly powerful, make them bleed as you die.
4. It's also not down to two individuals. On the Russian side, yes, there's just their dictator (as some Russians call him); on the Ukrainian side, you have a very influential president, who has to consult with equals - at least at the moment.
5. Not mentioned: General Winter. I've been told he's decided to fight on the side of the Ukrainians this year? If so, it would seem a very bad time to start deciding what to surrender before the end of Winter. Once the Winter Advantage has ended, they might be able to negotiate more favourable terms.
And then there's the "not my problem" faction, I suppose. The enemy within, one might say. They might indeed drop Ukraine for "peace". I don't see how that alters Ukraine's long term position. They still have to keep preparing for the next war, and for the real possibility that all "peace" offers this Winter is a break for Russia to prepare the next war better. In the medium term that would mean continuing fighting. And then next year, maybe drop Moldova. Or Kazakhstan. Or Mongolia. Or whoever is Next. (Ceteris parabis? )
To my mind, ambiguous communications would be the worst thing Zelensky could do right now. (Talk "peace" - meaning a partial surrender - while somehow still conducting a war.) That would confuse his supporters in and outside of the country. Yes, a war ends in a peace - generally a "peace" it's quite disgusting to contemplate - but to survive, everyone need to be in "stupid animal fight mode". And given the risk of the Russian interpretation of a "peace" as just a truce, isn't he just stating the factual position they're stuck in? Russia wants a war, and if someone wants to be your enemy in life, there's no way to refuse this. Russia doesn't just want the territories they've seized up till now. So there you are, stuck with a war - unilaterally imposed, and only possible to end by Russia somehow unilaterally becoming more peaceful (and I don't just mean telling more "peace lies"). There's asymmetry there, too. All Ukraine wants is peace (and real peace is a restoration of the _status quo ante bellum_ just like real peace with the schoolyard bully would require him to give you back the lunch he stole from you.) What Russia really wants is control of the whole of Ukraine. (Actions speak louder than words, and we've seen them in action before their first defeats.)
So really what the "peace" crowd are saying is that actual Peace is Impossible, and Ukraine must settle for a bundle of promises and a lesser defeat than annihilation (this year).
Who's going to "win"? Well for starters, nobody. Not anybody. Even if Russia managed to take control of the whole of Ukraine it would be necessary to ensure that Russia suffers for this. For at least a few decades. No business as usual. But given that hopelessness all round, this might turn out to be a "lion vs honey badger" situation? So far that's how it's worked out.
Ok, we will do as you suggest, thanks!
Here is the peace i want:
Russia out of ukraine - including crimea.
Reperations payed from russia to ukraine.
Under UN supervision - russia can Evaluation everyone how wants to live in russia. Also, every ukrainian at the moment in russia must be allowed to return to ukraine.
The amoungt of reperations is negotiable.