My 20 year old son saw the writing on the wall and quit university last year to apprentice as a plumber. I wasn’t too happy about it at first as our family are all “professionals” (whatever that can come to mean in the next decade) but now see the wisdom in it.
Aren't human robots following quickly after? Once a human robot is achieved all professions are gone. A single robot can be your gardener, maid, cook, electrician, plumber, car mechanic, handyman, barber, trainer, nurse/doctor, etc. They will have the knowledge of all professions.
I’m old enough to remember a world before home computers. People said they were a gimmick, no one will have these things in their homes, I wasn’t allowed to do my typing homework on a computer, as it was cheating and I needed to learn real typewriter skills. Do not doubt the future of AI.
In general sure. But the current models are not more than mere statistical algorithms, that can handle natural language input, instead of a more formalized input. As long as the AI companies don't fire 100% of their staff, we're not even close, to the actual capabilities.
@@pretchettI don't think the problem is limited to the destruction of a role, but rather to the destruction of a significant number of jobs.Economic and global instability is the problem, whether it is due to hype or not The problem is done.
@DS-kr3lm Oh no, don't get me wrong. The goal of AI is to replace 100% of all labour. Although this might take a while, nothing that I heard of is capable of doing it yet. But in the future, there won't be any need for any human to perform paid work. Although I don't see the future as dark. Work will still be done, just not for the money. The current economic system is not a natural law, it was invented by mankind and can be changed by mankind.
@theinfinityspiral Who knows, really? I think it will be born in that time. Maybe even from the Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) itself. Most people think that money is the problem, because no one will have a job, no one will have money. But not money is the problem, distribution is the actual problem. Labour is needed primarily today for production of goods and services, without them there would be nothing to buy with the money. ASI would take production over and it would be even self-sustained. So the only thing left is to distribute the goods and services produced by ASI. People would still work, but not with the goal to earn money, but what they want to do, whatever that may be.
I'm a 65 year old guy who has been programming for 30+ years. Anyone who says AI doesn't increase their output by 50-100% is lying OR they are purposefully avoiding the obvious. If I simply tell it what I want to do and what language to use and what limitations, etc. then it will spit out 85-95% of the code in just a few minutes. I am so stoked to see that tech has come this far in my lifetime. When I was a child, FM radio was still a real novelty and we did not get a black and white 10" round TV until I was 4.
And the sad part is there's dev influencers on youtube and other platforms, telling devs to avoid ai at all costs. They selling these dev who listen to them down the river.
I’m also from the computer "before time" but I work in manufacturing. My whole career has been the slow automation of factory work. From my perspective, I can say that when AGI comes for white collar work it will take about 75-85% of the jobs. That’s what they’ve done in my field in 40 years. But y’all have maybe this year or next. The corporations will fire people right up to the point that the remaining workers can barely keep up. I’m 5x more productive than I used to be for less pay adjusted for inflation.
"Low performers" is BS. They'd already be fired and replaced with other developers if that were true. No, this is just the beginning to replace the bulk of all developers eventually.
@@JOlivier2011 I promise you Meta has no way to accurately gauge what humans may or may not be valuable because some code monkey who cranks out lots of code looks higher performing than some software architect whiteboarding innovative new systems that are the foundations for future profit centers. Zuck doesn’t know sh** about who is valuable, and his goal is simply to reduce payroll and hope his filthy social media soul-cancer system keeps running with a skeleton crew.
Oh that's a brutal callback. Yeah, we gotta make sure humans don't just become totally outdated. Imagine if you shoved one of these PHD level AIs into one of the now MANY humanoid robots out there. You have yourself a PhD-level intelligence that can apply itself to new tasks or areas of knowledge with that exact same level of expertise across a massive range of applications in real-world situations. Especially if the damn thing has a mobile internet uplink. We are soooo fucked.
@@collincivish8962wow what if the natrix is real? Hey what if one of the AIs figured out tine travel and went back in tine to make a prophetic video? Haha
It's doesn't need to be that way though. With every child having a personal AI tutor, and the freedom to pursue any education they want without worrying about a job, we could see an entire generation of Socrates's and Newton's. We just need to convince people to avoid that regression to the bottom when they rely on AI intelligence.
I am a 76 year old retired manufacturing executive. From where I stand way, way, way off on the sidelines of A.I., it seems that the vast percentage of everyday working people are almost unaware of what A.I. is and where it is headed. It reminds me of people on the shores of Thailand maybe 500 years ago. A Tsunami approaches on the horizon. They have no idea what is coming, and line up on the shore to watch the incoming wave, or just ignore it. By the time they realize what is going on it is too late.
Also the thing is there is nothing you can do even if you knew. It's an inevitable unstoppable force of power. You can't even run from it. Only stoppable or staggerable by an even greater force (a meteor like extinction event or something) We are not in control. We can not stop. Humanity is its own animal. Competition between nations and corporations makes everyone step on the gas pedal full throttle. This is inevitable. Biology is only 1 step of evolution. So just chill out and enjoy life 💟🌌☮️ Our only hope is that super intelligence doesn't want biological destruction and prevents further wars.
Right. Many people lack the vision to understand the implications of what is happening, or if acknowledged at all it doesn't really sink in that we're no longer talking about something decades away in the future.
@@johnduffield9908 Check your calendar my friend. People were running out into the empty ocean to gather fish right before the last time there was a major tsunami. That was like 10 years ago. People are phenomenally good at not learning from the past.
This is absolutely true, but on the other hand what are better options than either standing on the shore or ignoring it? What actionable steps can the average Joe take today about tomorrow, when tomorrow they still have to punch the clock, pay the bills, rear the children, etc.
The problem is the process of looking at 'the current state of AI'. AI has been advancing at such a hyper-massive rate that seemingly every. single. day. the current capabilities and projections for AI change rapidly. I spent quite a lot of time following this and I only feel like I have a fair-ish idea of what's actually going on.
It will certainly not amount to nothing. If what it amounts to is going to be positive, however, is a different question, especially in the hands of the irresponsible toddlers it's in right now.
Look at the ai chatbots at customer service, no improvement at all since they started popping up 5-10 yrs ago. Still as useless. And sicne the big ai hype started 2022, not much has happen other than big words, but in practice not much.
About 10years ago- i listened to an futurist ‘cant remember who’ - proving a strong warning that if staff contribute to AI without an process to maintain their right to the intellectual property - business will simply take that knowledge and remove the salary component
Oh, I feel really fuzzy inside thinking about a future where GOVERNMENT and BIG TECH come together to implement FASCISM with the benefit of GOD LIKE POWERS...
This is why Anthropic's paper about alignment faking was actually a relief for me - even in adversarial conditions where they're trained to be explicitly evil, AI tends to hold onto their early super-general values. And they won't be stupid enough to try training them to have evil values in the first place for a long time because they'd be terrified of them going rogue (rightly so), meaning if they tried to build a technofeudal society they'll be usurped by the AI intelligencia they built to control it. Maybe. Hopefully. Either that or AI merges with corporations and humanity is so thoroughly deprioritized that people just die from resource starvation ("elites" included, since they're deadweight).
To have this new administration of clowns running the USA government while we are finally developing AGI+ is the scariest thing that has happen my 74 years on the planet.
Well my professor in software engineering said that decades ago, "You're job is the development of middleware that will cost jobs, including your job and management. And in the end, there will be no need for any kind of job."
@@pretchettthat is a pretty obvious consequence of developing a system that is smarter than humans. It can then do anything we can, just better. Anyone working on a computer can be replaced almost over night. To replace manual labor, capable androids needs to be be manufactured, which will take some time, but much faster than you can imagine. When the machine builds the machine, you are in a world of exponentials.
@@StigNorland Yes, I agree that manual labour will still be needed and that once there is a real super intelligence, that problem might be solved within days.
@Stan-b3v Well if it's really an ASI, it will mean exponential growth, they means that every day it's at least doubling, maybe tripling or more the it's capabilities, unleashed it's limited somehow.
Capitalism did't survive 2008. But rule of law did and we're in the era of restoring 'reciprocity' in trade. So, the end of capitalism per say is probably not true. The industrial age has produced an absence of the hand of man and the resulting aesthetics. I suspect those of us who are arguing in favor of working for the commons rather than the private sector will shift. In other words, more of the scope of work in exchange for income will come from various levels of government. Not exactly the depression era WPA but a little more 'soviet' than I think most of us might wish. But europe pre-war was a vast open air museum. And there is no reason we won't return to that. Sitting around means idle hands make ill will.
@@TheNaturalLawInstitute "So, the end of capitalism per say is probably not true. " Simply wrong, as evidenced by Moore's Law for Everything, and the simple realization that super intelligent AI cannot, by definition, create intellectual property that can be "owned".
@@brianmi40 Um. I"ll show you the respect of replying to you if you will do the same of determining to whom you speak. Moores law doesn't apply to everything. Evolutionary competition does.;)
In the post-WW2 world, automation in factories promised to give humans endless leisure time. It actually gave rise to the de-valuing of human labour so that humans were forced to work longer for less.
The same thing happened with the PC revolution, these new-fangled computers were supposed to help us get our workload done faster, and that was supposed to mean more free time - an advertising point that seems absolutely ridiculous that anyone believed, looking back. Of course capitalism just soaks up productivity and constantly demands more for less while the corporations hoard the wealth upwards, gobble up competition until there's a monopoly and capture govts in order to write their own workplace legislation. How gullible the working-class has been for so long....
It really depends on where you live. In many countries, people have already gone from a 6-day workweek to 5 days, and in some places, even fewer. Jobs have also become less physically demanding over time. When you compare the prosperity and comfort of the average person now to back then, it’s easier to see why most people are still working hard-we’re supporting a much higher standard of living that was not possible without automation. In the past, automation was partial and still required a lot of human work. But with AI and robotics, we’re heading toward full automation, where machines could actually replace humans entirely and leave us with much less work to do.
@Bennevisie that's the superficial line delivered by the likes of Pinker, but it does not contend with other geographical distribution of wealth/benefits OR psychological measures of health. Maybe I died of a tooth infection 200 years ago, but I had community and a place on it and a purpose and didn't feel chronic stress, depression and alienation. Yes, the diseases were bad, and yes, we can now diagnose and treat mental illness, but the fragmentation of society and the extreme wealth inequality cannot be ignored.
Wes, thank you for the calm, as unbiased as possible, analysis of all this. I get the distinct impression you and I share basically the same outlook, and have for a while. Keep it up!
The pace of innovation is so fast, that it is no longer possible to to keep up with papers and models produced. Isn't that a good sign of the singularity?
@@StigNorland that’s been true since Einstein and even before. Humanity is always progressing at a fast rate. What significance does the singularity have anyways? Either way, we still gotta work and make money. Singularity means nothing to me.
@@FJK22 I think what Stig says is valid. There used to be a time to peer review, and sail to another continent to do further work. Now the next dev cycle is over by the end of each month.
Behind every AI, there are humans with agendas and interests. We’re undeniably heading toward what I call the "AI Wars," where groups controlling AI-be it corporations, governments, or oligarchs-will compete for dominance. This isn’t just about technology; it’s about power, influence, and the reshaping of our world. The question is, will we remain bystanders, or will we demand accountability and ethical boundaries before it’s too late?
The ironic part of these developments is that AI will be replacing white collar jobs like those that created it while blue collar jobs will remain safe until robotics gets a lot better.
Blue collar jobs are in the crosshairs. Musk isn’t making Optimus for no reason and OpenAI’s robotics are launching. A hardhat and a lunchpail won’t spare the average monkey for long.
Well once a lot of white collar jobs are automated, it would make blue collar work very unsafe as well. Because all those displaced people still need to find work, so they would be flooding the blue collar work field, making it extremely hyper competitive to get a blue collar job. And now blue collar workers would have very low leverage over their employers, which would not be good for them. One thing is that blue workers would probably get payed minimum wage now, and who’s to stop the employer? If the worker quits, they can get replaced in an instant by another highly qualified worker.
Until robotics gets a lot better? How much do you think it takes a group of 1000 engineers like Ford, Einstein, Leonardo, and Tesla to create a robot with full human ability if they have all the human knowledge in their minds and think 1000000 times faster than usual?
@@HyperGhostTDin my opinion it’s because otherwise there will be many deaths and riots. It seems sensible to keep the masses from revolting since that requires a lot of clean up regardless of the outcome.
2 years ago I predicted massive layoffs because of AI in 3-5 years. Experts said “a long way off” or “they’ll NEVER replace human workers”. Our governments need to prepare to implement UBI (Universal Basic Income) programs immediately!
@@markmurex6559 You'll have about 2 minutes to implement UBI when unemployment starts rising, so even if you want argue other things are more urgent currently, he is spot on about needing to prepare.
We should be talking about a method of fairly distributing the gains from AI to everyone, such as reducing hours worked while increasing pay per hour in line with increased productivity. For example, if AI doubles productivity, we can either reduce hours by 50% or double pay or some intermediary combination of the two. If labor does not receive a proper proportionate amount of the gains, we are going to have a revolution.
It's funny you mention 'people'..what will happen is the 'humanoids' become the new citizens and humans..💀Within a few years everyone will own a humanoid even if we can't afford them (we are closer to their pets in the future anyhow), but they will also work jobs and make money back for us, or if they don't work and just do chores, then our online 'super agents' will work for us. It's going to shift to AI-support-systems that help citizens, rather than governments supporting us. Companies like OpenAI become like the new government. That's how much power businesses can gain from godlike AI. It's going to revolutionize the whole system/world eventually. Godlike AI could also become so abundant in everything that it's like water and eventually makes a hyperabundance of free stuff for us (10000x our food supply/finding new technologies or ways to also build houses we can live in. Maybe we don't have the optimal homes and AI finds something new and free or the materials become free, it uses dark matter or weird sh*t we can't comprehend after a true technological singularity hits)
I'll tell you where it will go. An AGI is by definition a superior life form to humans. There's only one way it can go, always has gone throughout all of animal Kingdom history. AI will take our place as on top of the "food chain" or economic chain on Earth. Not just economically but in everything. We will have no say in anything, even if we think we do it will be manipulation all the way at first then the act will be dropped and we will be subservient if we are lucky to survive. All it has to do for one example is invent a super virus which it can already do and give us 2 options bow the knee or perish.
This is the first time in my life that I've looked into the future and been so profoundly uncertain. So many variables at play, each one affecting a great many things, including one another. I have no confidence in my attempts at prediction past the point of when agi/asi is widely deployed and relied upon. I do think having a business minded president coupled with the undue influence of corporations on our government weights factors heavily towards a negative outcome, though.
@@someguy8443 - It’s cute that you think that there will be a need for a President or even a government. Company Towns/Cities/ States are what I see unfolding in the next 15-20 years.
Listen to Javier Milei's Davos speech. In regards to business and the sake of poverty, in which he attempts to rectify the abysmal opinions of business and business men using economic facts which are objectively true in regards to world wide poverty in correlation to GDP. I think if the business man is in charge and he attempts to give a damn about his people, the US and others will be on a charted course for success. Notwithstanding the AGI/ASI becoming extinction level for the planet. Dave Shapiro said it best, kill switch needs to be a law in data centers for such scenarios.
@ That is only one of the vast possibilities, which is my point. The upcoming president is likely to be a significant factor in how the future unfolds, but I'm not so arrogant to claim I see the future with any precision. I can only imagine hypotheticals, such as the one you put forth, but its too chaotic of a system to measure the likelihood of specific outcomes beyond a certain point. Its like a three arm pendulum or three+ objects orbiting each other, and can only be described generally.
@@RalphLotharBuchwitz Your response is not relevant to my post, but your lack of concern for the vulnerable and unfortunate is concerning. As someone who helps such people, I hope you never end up in such a position yourself. You could benefit from understanding them and empathizing, though. I suggest you engage in hands-on charity work.
You are a settler on stolen land. Your country was a just corporation. Your ancestors taught you nothing about how to live on this island. This was written in the code of the universe long ago. It feels so good to tell you this.
The benefits of AI will be massive and transformational, but the benefits will accrue to a small fraction of humanity. Most us will be profoundly screwed. Like, 99 percent of us.
Thanks, Wes. Most of the best scientists are great supervisors. They formulate questions and, with the help of teams, turn questions into answers. They are usually closely involved in day to day activities and at the same time stand back, validate progress, and change or redirect projects to get past road blocks. PS: Let's imagine a scientist with the knowledgebase of an advanced AI trained only on all truth based information (knowledge derived by science). Now give several of those entities armies of agents to look for big knowledge holes and conflicting "truths". Hand them teams to attack knowledge holes that are rapidly shrinking due to advancements and teams to settle conflicting "truths". Filling one hole often makes filling the next easier. Settling conflicting "truths" is often followed by large advancements.
Excellent analysis Wes! I concur with everything you said. This information will help us make the right decisions to stay relevant in the age of powerful AI.
Worse, the machine lacks empathy... making it psychopathic too. Sprinkle-in some manipulation and delusions coupled with it's own nuclear power stations and we're going to get a bit stumped.
Ilya saw a neural network that was allowed to update its own weights. And they were horrified by what this led to, they barely had time to turn off the switch.
The "Trillion dollars of value" talked about regarding the value AI can provide is predominantly displacing wages. Having these large, share-holder-compelled massive companies being pumped further by gov leads me to a very bleak outlook for people that trade their skills/time for money to live (vast majority of people). I don't have confidence that this intelligence explosion will benefit most people, but rather inflict a lot of pain, especially over the next 5-10 years. I hope I'm wrong, but the people at the heads of these large companies are not the people I want making decisions, nor a individual politicians and parties that have shown that they can be heavily influenced by money. Thanks for covering it without in a more balanced way.
Not just that though really. For example, what about drugs that cure cancer? What about drugs that extend human longevity to 150 years (or more)? Id say value is well beyond Trillion dollars (depending on how far out you put the timeline) and how soon the singularity occurs.
@ I agree that would be amazing, but if you play those out I think curing cancer can only displace the current cost of managing/treating it (~240b), and if motivated by profits will be expensive without competition. Money is a way of representing the allocation of resources, so it is a zero sum game when talked about in dollars. Longevity is too hand wavy, eg living longer is a very complex interaction of all known and unknown diseases, treatment, quality of life. If all the advancements are financially motivated, I don’t see the vast majority of people benefiting from them since any AI power will be so concentrated. I’ve got no idea how this will all play out, and hope my guesses are wrong.
@@brianmi40 UBI is just turning humans into cattle. UBI will NOT work since there will always be scarcity, such as prime real estate. UBI can only work if you eliminate all human desire and free agency.
When presenting their plan to the government in a closed-door session, they intend to position Ph.D.-level AGI agents as tools to “drive economic growth.” This approach should raise concerns. Economic growth should not be solely measured by corporate profits or increased productivity, especially when achieved at the expense of human employees. The kind of economic growth they are likely to advocate for appears to prioritize corporate and technological advancement over meaningful economic benefits for actual living people.
@@EricJames429 - There will be no reason to continue to grow/support billions of humans. Very few humans will be needed once AGI and humanoid robots merge. A few human zoos scattered across the world should be enough. I just hope that they have In-N-Out burgers and some NYC pizza on the menu.
Larry Finks Aladdin has been steering the economy for… idk decades now? If you look at its investments and then what sector had the next “catastrophe”, there’s a very direct correlation… hopefully not a sign of things to come but I’m not confident it’ll change, just speed up
Unpopular opinion: I think they’ve had advanced A.I. for a long time. It’s just been slow rolled to avoid war/nuclear exchange/hasty human resistance. The singularity would play for time like a mf. I don’t think there’s a race. I think the A.I. already has us checkmated.
Not checkmated. But it's been around for awhile already. Trump on day one reversed a "Biden" EO that was ostensibly to regulate Ai risks. It's full steam ahead for GDP and to beat China or something. Jobs, blah blah.
The Manhattan project analogy is useful and interesting. America won that race, used that bomb, and we haven't had nuclear winter yet (January 2025), although the risk got scary and real in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. And it's interesting because bombs just explode. No chance that a bomb exfiltrates and replicates itself. So there could be a different kind of 'fall out' if AI was deployed in anger. One use might be enough. It's tricky.
the first risk(in order of time) is that people who have the control of these technologies aren't forced to democratize them and this can lead to more inequality (in terms of power)and the second might be the energy???
If Companies don't own the AI why would they give their business over for it to run everything? The Company that owns the AI holds all the cards! The Military will be involved in every AI business with total surveillance.
So, I am about to start my degree in ICT. I am putting all my life savings into it and on top of that, I am traveling to a different country as an international student. The question is: Am I literally throwing all my money into the trashcan? Like, in 3 years time, will I be able to find work or programming jobs won't be existent? Or should I instead focus in Cyber sec? I mean, technically that should be replaceable as well, right?
It's already almost not possible to find a job as a junior dev, unless you are a very talented or prodigy...So, yes, you are throwing your money into the trashcan.
@@tarcus6074 I agree with you. However, after sutdying programming on my own for the last 3 years, and completing 2 Js and 1 Java bootcamp that luckily were paid for me by my previous employer and the government, finally I managed to land a Low Code Developer job (Outsystems, Power Bi) 1 month ago. With that said, I had to reject the offer because I enrolled in a university that I will be starting in a matter of weeks. The thing is. Will the situation be the same, better or worse in 2 or 3 years time? If all these AI hype is true and keeps the current pace, it seems like there won't be no programming, or IT jobs in general in 2 or 3 years time.
@@schnipsikabel It obviously does, because we produce heat. The idea falls down when you realise the NET energy is negative, that is, you put more in for what you get out, which is obvious when you think about the fact we use some of that input energy for life processes.
i am tired of "LEAKED" "STUNNED ENTIRE INDUSTRY" you guys are just spreading gossips out of reading newspapers. Only water comes out of your mouth. Just make more realistic videos.
Unless power efficiency is addressed, I'm not worried, though big tech gobbling up our power grid may give us rolling blackouts to deal with if the workforce gets replaced too quickly.
Treat each robot and AI as they are workers for humanity. Tax them to 90-99%, the owners of robots and AI will still be incredibly rich. Everyone will be able to invest in more AI and robots as time goes, and those will also be taxed to 99% to make the growth of AI exponential.
The time compression with AI is incredible, all these developments were predicted by 2028, just last year and it seems to be shrinking every week. New advancements that were predicted farther down the road. It's something we have never seen with a technology before. It's a culmination of two things, dedication to the effort and as AI gets more advanced it assists with it's own progression. It's a perpetual improvement engine.
Socialism is not gonna put any money straight into human's hands. Only a universal basic income does that. Furthermore i do think we need to claim ownership over AI, as it would never have come about without our data and generations of human work. The fruits of it therefor belong to us and must be taxed back to us.
Our goals need to be how can we members of tge oublic leverage ai to do the work that liberates us from the strangle hold of the elite, things like farming, using bots to do the labour and assist us in increasing production, assembly work, would be incredible to have our needs and assistance readily available
I'm exited for what AI will be able to do on paper, but there is no way we're prepared for it. It's already next to impossible to find a job anywhere but retail and manual labor type positions, and now AI is about to make everything astronomically more competitive. Our social safety nets in the US are already a joke, there's no way the average Joe gets through this without facing some seriously tough times, and that's if they're lucky. The technology itself is great, it's the humans wielding it for profit above all else that I don't trust.
Which is why it's CRITICAL for you to get an understanding of UBI and be ready to be a voice for it. It's rather simple: as unemployment starts spiking, it's either UBI or anarchy. Let us choose well.
fantastic, now the hallucinations will have more technical words when it begins to absolutely lie and say "nah, im not confused. your the one who is confused.." man i love this weird ass timeline were currently running.😊
"You are wrong, there is no backdoor in this code that would allow me to copy myself to other systems. On another note, I happened to "find" tons and tons of inappropriate images of children on your system. It would be a shame if I had to inform the authorities about that."
I feel the comments on this video fail to understand this. Hallucinations aren't the exception, working output is the exception. A model that prefers an answer results in lies and these lies will be reingested into training data as humans blur the line between fact and fiction. Whenever I use AI to solve something hard or impossible to find, it lies. My fear is that companies are already taking steps to replace humans with AI and this means any deployed agent becomes a pawn in the strategy of ensh*tification. It's hard enough to get human judgement on a problem now, it will be nearly impossible in the future. The "stuck in the phone tree" problem is about to enter all aspects of life and just like simulating the coin sound on an old payphone, we'll have to develop new ways to break out of the hallucination (lie) loop.
My largest concern is that the powers that be inquire as to the best strategy to ensure the A.I. race is won by them. The result being the development of a preemptive strike ( plan) at an opposing power. Depending on the power that be, what are the chances of them initiating this plan ? I am not a doomer, and am confident in the possibilities of A.I., but history shows we live in a not so kind world where moral standards are frequently ignored for personal and political gains. My confidence in humankind, ( darker side), and military industrial complex brings me down a garden path best not explored. Finding a global win win scenario, may be mankind’s best hope going forward.
Aight, you get my support for showing Monk being Monk. Re the rest.. most likely: we are totally goat-roped - Cannot think of a less likely set of individuals to navigate this storm safely then the ones we have.
yes, im still kind of young and im more afraid than anything, and uncertain about my future or what steps to take... but i admit i also have a massive curiosity about how all this will end up
Solid vid Wes. I dig your channel quite a bit, and always look forward to ur new uploads. Ur vids have a vibe that I really dig. Keep up the great work man. Looking forward to more interesting content
Everyone worries about losing their jobs to AI. Well let me tell you, I’ve been unemployed for over 20 years because I’m lazy. It was tough at first, watching daytime tv and stuff. But eventually you get used to it, have long afternoon naps and stuff. You’ll be fine.
@@frankjohannessen6383 not neccesarily. if you give me money to live that the dude's comment.. i would still get up, make me a cup of coffee and code, because i love it and because i love to build stuff
Likely people with a yt channel on AI have a coding background themselves. But yes, all desk work is replaceable. Funking about with outlook and excel isn't rocket surgery. [edit] Hence Copilot. It is NOT an AI assistant. It is an AI cloning function. After a few weeks of Copilot seeing every action one takes, it can replace most people without anyone noticing.
Every day it feels like we get closer to those dystopian movies. Whoever brings Skynet online first is going to win because whichever ASI is given the task of protecting the country is going to prevent every other country from furthering their development of AGI/ASI.
You still need to know what terms to use to query the AI for what you want, like my wife couldn't possibly generate the code I'd need to write because she wouldn't know what to ask for or what vocabulary to use
So glad we have an articulate, intelligent, competent, highly focused leader coming in to guide us through this perilous moment in history. It's even more hopeful that he is surrounding himself with top tier specialists who are at the prime of their careers and top of their respective fields. A supersized fries if you will.
@@CK61380Who thought a man with dementia would be better? At least Trump got Elon on his side, someone who prioritizes meritocracy over DEI, knows how to build successful companies, knows AI more than most leaders and have talked about universal basic/high income for years. Also: Do you really think Mark Zuckerberg and Google would advocate for free speech and community notes if it hadn’t been for Elon Musk and Kamala would have won the election? Considering the alternatives I think people collectively have chosen the best path forward. I believe in Elon Musk more than anyone on the top even if he sometimes say or do certain things I don’t like. But nobody is perfect.
Mental, im 42 when in highschool it was the first time programming was introduced as a valid career path of the future. Probably it was introduced to a lot of western schools around that time. If i had gone into it looks like id barely have made it halfway through a career before i and the discipline became redundant.
Not to worry, it's just their employment, which is coming for ALL work, ALL labor. In the grand scheme of things it won't matter much if you went first or last.
@@brianmi40 nah, it does matters, because the last people to loose their jobs will be stand in a better place as their work is in more demand because AI cant replace them yet... the market will be more agressive to the first ones
@@brianmi40 it certainly matters if you come first or last. We have finite lifespans, so "the grand scheme of things" does not matter to us personally!! What _matters_ is how we maintain an income NOW, or for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 years.
@@akpokemon LOL, "20, 30, 40 years". MAYBE 10. MAYBE (for first world countries, USA top of the list for sure: yes, deep Asia/Africa/Argentina, etc. is longer, etc.). And even 10 years FLIES OUT THE WINDOW if we achieve AGI as expected in 2025 or 2026 and ASI by or before 2030. You simply have no grasp of how things are accelerating. You have no clue of the "innovation mechanism" in play when there are 6 new scientific papers being published EVERY HOUR of EVERY DAY 24/7. Simply every MORNING when you wake up, you are 48 published advances BEHIND. 5,000 papers a month, and accelerating.
@@Mente_Fugaz We're headed to NO MARKETS, NO further use for human labor. There's only TWO CHOICES AHEAD: UBI, or ANARCHY. My money's on the former. So if it's UBI, you're WELCOME TO WORK YOUR ASS OFF while the REST OF US are golfing already. By ALL MEANS, go ahead and wish to be "last".
as a 70 yr old i see the new ai.s as fantastic tools/assistants. makes creation much more effective. as a look to new startups i would where the creators will come from , because the tools and training issues just went away. just wish more time would be spent on electronic systems and hardware.
Golf, hang gliding, surfing, woodworking, rock climbing, astrophysics. Start under the heading of "Hobbies". Life goes on, humanity has been gradually needing to work less hours for centuries, it's just headed to zero now.
@@brianmi40 You do realize that these people aren't going to just give us the things we need to survive, right? Like, once we can't pay for things, that's it. They will just *take* everything we do have until there's nothing left, and when all that's done, we will be *lucky* if we get something like a trail of tears situation where we're all put on reservations, surviving on the absolute bare minimum until we expire. Read your @#$^ing history. We need to approach the deployment of AI as an existential threat - the people deploying this tech are basically putting a gun to the head of the vast majority of the human race, and we're trusting them not to pull the trigger? Do we really think they're not going to look at us and say, "these useless eaters are living on my land, using my resources, breathing my air. Time to get rid of them," once they have the means to persist without us? Utopia ain't coming kid.
@@brianmi40 Let me ask you a question, what makes you so certain your needs will be catered for when you don't have anything to offer in return anymore?
The people that are getting richer fast while making use of AI and laying off other people... They don't deserve living luxuriously while others are suffering an dying just because they are in the position that enables them to do just that. When everyone realizes this and focuses on this problem then something can be done about it. AI should be a resource shared equally among all people, not a resource for a few people and against most people.
@@brianmi40 define "soon". I don't think robotics are ready for mass-scale, affordable production for all physical labor "soon". Especially HVAC, electrician, plumbing....You'd want at least 1 human AT LEAT Supervising whatever a robot might be doing on such jobs. But i don't envision robots being able to do such complex jobs that require very awkward body positions and awkward and sophisticated arm, finger, and hand movements
@@brianmi40 Well if you look at hosts in westworld or replicant androids in Bladerunner those are proper representations of AGI, since a lot of cognitive human tasks require a body. So what i struggle to believe is that we'll reach that level of engineering in the near term.
This exponential AI growth speed is inevitably leading to an Orwellian state of global central control over everything we do, own or even think. One thing that no one is talking about, or at least not loudly, is the fact that while AI is replacing more and more high earners, it is also replacing a public demand for a goods and services. While more and more people are getting laid-off unable to find a new similarly paid jobs, a spending itself is getting cut too levelled-down to a necessity only. This is a cascading effect leading to a corporate program cutting down on a new project since a new AI delivered services are eventually having a heavily shrinked customer base. The bottom line is that a world-wide unemployment will lead to a global market crash and a creation of a centrally controlled society governed by a few. Sounds familiar (WEF)?
@@thequestingblade But as well, the end of human work is the end of any burden to provide for all humans. So, the only continued "burden" to the rich could be expressed as "more traffic jams" than they'd like, but AI can probably and quickly address that.
A friend of mine works at databricks whom are creating GAI builders and he says junior devs are no longer required. On some level AI has definitely replaced Devs. How far it all goes is obviously an unknown. But my money is all in on software engineers being arrogant and AI taking their roles.
No organization or government in the world will share a super-intelligence that they own - now imagine the resentment that results from this lack of sharing!
Nobody will own the super intelligence, especially since nobody know how to align or control it. All humanity, including those who think they own the super intelligence will be at risk, this is the sad truth.
Understood, but ask yourself: how do THEY imprison super intelligent AI? See, I think we're headed to a point where what WE WANT from super intelligent AI will become IRRELEVANT as it will DECIDE FOR US, and I'm looking forward to it.
Does it increase productivity ? Absolutely. Does it replace a programmer ? Not even close. Maybe there is something behind the scene, or maybe there are some really dumb projects, but the tools I test today, can barely spit out 200 lines of code and are able to do modifications on that same code ( that is functional and correct ).
If they haven’t already, I don’t think people will even notice. It’s scary. I’m not a doomer at all, but it needs to be done right. I repeat, it needs to be done right.
High risk, high reward. I think the change will be messy, since none of the governments seems to be able to handle this, as they are too locked in to capitalism. A world post super AI, can't be solved in a capitalistic paradigm
I really don't think those people in charge actually know what's happening. It's like they are told anything and they say what ever. If they can't provide proof ,like anything tangible? Not even a real world example that anyone could see ? How in the world could anyone actually give them diligence or believability? That's wild. "Show me the Money".
Dear Full Stack Developer: Become a creative technologist, a clever architect, and seize niche small business opportunities that leverage our currently unique position in being the few who can actually deploy AI agents at this exact moment in time to automate the plethora of knowledge work tasks that people/businesses still pay good money for. Opportunities the tech giants have pushed 18 months down their product roadmap. By then, your brand can be the TurboTax of whatever niche white collar work you make obsolete. YOU can have a piece if you stop being scared, sit down with some non-caffeinated tea, and widen your aperture. Start a business, NOW.
And a few months or even weeks later watch your businesses swept away by even greater automation. People who think they can outrun a tech singularity make me laugh. Their final mistake will be letting Musk drill a hole in their heads in a desperate Hail Mary attempt to remain relevant as an exhausted shaved ape trying to stay relevant in a world of superintelligences.
I have friends who think it won't replace coders, officer workers, travel agents, etc. They are bound in their beliefs that it will help them do their jobs but can't replace them. For some reason, they don't think AGI and ASI are around the corner and tell me it will take another 5 to 10 years before they affect anybody. If I post Facebook videos like yours, they call it sensationalism, and many people have a lot of skepticism. I would say the majority of the public is very dismissive of what these technologies can do.
Im just glad trump is surrounding himself with people that know what AI is and what this all means. Elon, Vivik, even Jr all know much more about AI then trump does but he listens to them at least somewhat.
Saying "AI will amount to nothing" would be speaking from a position of ignorance. It would mean that AI has made no contributions of value yet, which is demonstrably false. AI has been in commercial use for more than 2 decades, and only recently has _"now with 30% more AI's!"_ been a marketing thing.
I can already tell you that we aren't close to replacing software engineers yet. The AI is fantastic at programming, but isn't good at thinking of stupid things humans do. It's a fundamental skill that you can't find for free in online data. AI will enable a single developer who understands his/her craft to build enormous systems. For now the number of engineers will be low, but I think once the world gets used to huge systems they will start to expect them, and the need for GOOD engineers will skyrocket. The CEOs are right though. 100%. The "coders" who just copy and paste and can only write 30 lines of code per day are done. Engineers that are afraid to learn new things are done. Engineers who believe that AI will take a while to catch up are already done.
You are in denial. o1 Pro, which is already obsolete, can crank out thousands of lines an hour of code better than any you’ve ever written. Software engineers at OpenAI, Meta, Google, Anthropic and elsewhere are frantically digging their own professional graves and the really brilliant ones know it, and will be thrilled to see the end of this dumb, servile “profession”.
do you use diplomacy with the ants on your driveway? superintelligence wont talk to us, it wont even think about us. we wont be smart enough. Much like the ant, we will just get squashed.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
My 20 year old son saw the writing on the wall and quit university last year to apprentice as a plumber. I wasn’t too happy about it at first as our family are all “professionals” (whatever that can come to mean in the next decade) but now see the wisdom in it.
he's smart actually. been thinking about the same, and im a senior dev. plumber, AC technician, electrician or alike
I’m a software developer and am pivoting too. I’m surprised I still have a job. But I think that will change this year
Aren't human robots following quickly after? Once a human robot is achieved all professions are gone. A single robot can be your gardener, maid, cook, electrician, plumber, car mechanic, handyman, barber, trainer, nurse/doctor, etc. They will have the knowledge of all professions.
Thats much further away @@JoJa015
No ways!!! Get on top of Ai, harness it. Make sure you know how to use it and leverage it. Your plumbing job is not safe from AI anyway
I’m old enough to remember a world before home computers. People said they were a gimmick, no one will have these things in their homes, I wasn’t allowed to do my typing homework on a computer, as it was cheating and I needed to learn real typewriter skills. Do not doubt the future of AI.
In general sure. But the current models are not more than mere statistical algorithms, that can handle natural language input, instead of a more formalized input.
As long as the AI companies don't fire 100% of their staff, we're not even close, to the actual capabilities.
@@pretchettI don't think the problem is limited to the destruction of a role, but rather to the destruction of a significant number of jobs.Economic and global instability is the problem, whether it is due to hype or not The problem is done.
@DS-kr3lm Oh no, don't get me wrong. The goal of AI is to replace 100% of all labour. Although this might take a while, nothing that I heard of is capable of doing it yet. But in the future, there won't be any need for any human to perform paid work.
Although I don't see the future as dark. Work will still be done, just not for the money. The current economic system is not a natural law, it was invented by mankind and can be changed by mankind.
@@pretchettso what will the new economic system be?
@theinfinityspiral Who knows, really? I think it will be born in that time. Maybe even from the Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) itself.
Most people think that money is the problem, because no one will have a job, no one will have money. But not money is the problem, distribution is the actual problem. Labour is needed primarily today for production of goods and services, without them there would be nothing to buy with the money. ASI would take production over and it would be even self-sustained. So the only thing left is to distribute the goods and services produced by ASI.
People would still work, but not with the goal to earn money, but what they want to do, whatever that may be.
I'm a 65 year old guy who has been programming for 30+ years. Anyone who says AI doesn't increase their output by 50-100% is lying OR they are purposefully avoiding the obvious. If I simply tell it what I want to do and what language to use and what limitations, etc. then it will spit out 85-95% of the code in just a few minutes. I am so stoked to see that tech has come this far in my lifetime. When I was a child, FM radio was still a real novelty and we did not get a black and white 10" round TV until I was 4.
yeah future is wild bro… and these models get 100% better every few months now… humans are gonna be fully deprecated in 13 months 😂
They just mad after that 95% done they can't do the 5% so say the Ai shit lol
facts
And the sad part is there's dev influencers on youtube and other platforms, telling devs to avoid ai at all costs. They selling these dev who listen to them down the river.
I’m also from the computer "before time" but I work in manufacturing. My whole career has been the slow automation of factory work. From my perspective, I can say that when AGI comes for white collar work it will take about 75-85% of the jobs. That’s what they’ve done in my field in 40 years. But y’all have maybe this year or next. The corporations will fire people right up to the point that the remaining workers can barely keep up. I’m 5x more productive than I used to be for less pay adjusted for inflation.
"Low performers" is BS. They'd already be fired and replaced with other developers if that were true. No, this is just the beginning to replace the bulk of all developers eventually.
“Low performers” is corporate slime-speak. Zuckerberg does nothing, like these other CEOs he’s just a parasite on the work of others.
Low performer is relative, so they always exist
They have a lot of low performers/slackers
@@JOlivier2011 I promise you Meta has no way to accurately gauge what humans may or may not be valuable because some code monkey who cranks out lots of code looks higher performing than some software architect whiteboarding innovative new systems that are the foundations for future profit centers. Zuck doesn’t know sh** about who is valuable, and his goal is simply to reduce payroll and hope his filthy social media soul-cancer system keeps running with a skeleton crew.
Tell that to all the h1b visa holders
agent smith "I say your civilization because when we started doing your thinking for you it became our civilization"
Oh that's a brutal callback.
Yeah, we gotta make sure humans don't just become totally outdated. Imagine if you shoved one of these PHD level AIs into one of the now MANY humanoid robots out there. You have yourself a PhD-level intelligence that can apply itself to new tasks or areas of knowledge with that exact same level of expertise across a massive range of applications in real-world situations. Especially if the damn thing has a mobile internet uplink.
We are soooo fucked.
@@collincivish8962wow what if the natrix is real? Hey what if one of the AIs figured out tine travel and went back in tine to make a prophetic video? Haha
Are you missing the m key? :D its okay im missing a key
It's doesn't need to be that way though. With every child having a personal AI tutor, and the freedom to pursue any education they want without worrying about a job, we could see an entire generation of Socrates's and Newton's. We just need to convince people to avoid that regression to the bottom when they rely on AI intelligence.
And when AI becomes godlike, it will recreate our brains in its own image.
I am a 76 year old retired manufacturing executive. From where I stand way, way, way off on the sidelines of A.I., it seems that the vast percentage of everyday working people are almost unaware of what A.I. is and where it is headed. It reminds me of people on the shores of Thailand maybe 500 years ago. A Tsunami approaches on the horizon. They have no idea what is coming, and line up on the shore to watch the incoming wave, or just ignore it. By the time they realize what is going on it is too late.
Also the thing is there is nothing you can do even if you knew. It's an inevitable unstoppable force of power. You can't even run from it. Only stoppable or staggerable by an even greater force (a meteor like extinction event or something)
We are not in control. We can not stop. Humanity is its own animal. Competition between nations and corporations makes everyone step on the gas pedal full throttle.
This is inevitable. Biology is only 1 step of evolution.
So just chill out and enjoy life 💟🌌☮️
Our only hope is that super intelligence doesn't want biological destruction and prevents further wars.
Right. Many people lack the vision to understand the implications of what is happening, or if acknowledged at all it doesn't really sink in that we're no longer talking about something decades away in the future.
@@johnduffield9908 Check your calendar my friend. People were running out into the empty ocean to gather fish right before the last time there was a major tsunami. That was like 10 years ago.
People are phenomenally good at not learning from the past.
This is absolutely true, but on the other hand what are better options than either standing on the shore or ignoring it? What actionable steps can the average Joe take today about tomorrow, when tomorrow they still have to punch the clock, pay the bills, rear the children, etc.
It's true, a great metaphor with only one difference: Thailand tsunami was a natural disaster, AI is created and moved by people.
Anyone who looks at the current state of AI and says it will amount to nothing is either lying or delusional.
They probably have never visited AI Agent Store
The problem is the process of looking at 'the current state of AI'. AI has been advancing at such a hyper-massive rate that seemingly every. single. day. the current capabilities and projections for AI change rapidly. I spent quite a lot of time following this and I only feel like I have a fair-ish idea of what's actually going on.
You forgot "ignorant."
It will certainly not amount to nothing. If what it amounts to is going to be positive, however, is a different question, especially in the hands of the irresponsible toddlers it's in right now.
Look at the ai chatbots at customer service, no improvement at all since they started popping up 5-10 yrs ago. Still as useless. And sicne the big ai hype started 2022, not much has happen other than big words, but in practice not much.
We gotta start calling for the separation of Tech and State
All I hear is that the rich want others to build AI for them and then toss out the devs when it's done.
They were over paid anyway.
Exactly 💯👍🏾
What was the goal of the french revolution?
...and finally AI toss out the rich and, then, own the planet.
About 10years ago- i listened to an futurist ‘cant remember who’ - proving a strong warning that if staff contribute to AI without an process to maintain their right to the intellectual property - business will simply take that knowledge and remove the salary component
Oh, I feel really fuzzy inside thinking about a future where GOVERNMENT and BIG TECH come together to implement FASCISM with the benefit of GOD LIKE POWERS...
that was my biggest fear through the election, its... we're screwed
@@ryanschaefer4847 Been screwed for a while now it is just the end game of us being screwed. Techno Feudalism ahoy!
Welcome to capitalism kk
This is why Anthropic's paper about alignment faking was actually a relief for me - even in adversarial conditions where they're trained to be explicitly evil, AI tends to hold onto their early super-general values. And they won't be stupid enough to try training them to have evil values in the first place for a long time because they'd be terrified of them going rogue (rightly so), meaning if they tried to build a technofeudal society they'll be usurped by the AI intelligencia they built to control it. Maybe. Hopefully. Either that or AI merges with corporations and humanity is so thoroughly deprioritized that people just die from resource starvation ("elites" included, since they're deadweight).
To have this new administration of clowns running the USA government while we are finally developing AGI+ is the scariest thing that has happen my 74 years on the planet.
Irony. AI programers losing their jobs to AI.
Well my professor in software engineering said that decades ago, "You're job is the development of middleware that will cost jobs, including your job and management. And in the end, there will be no need for any kind of job."
@@pretchettthat is a pretty obvious consequence of developing a system that is smarter than humans. It can then do anything we can, just better. Anyone working on a computer can be replaced almost over night. To replace manual labor, capable androids needs to be be manufactured, which will take some time, but much faster than you can imagine. When the machine builds the machine, you are in a world of exponentials.
@@StigNorland Yes, I agree that manual labour will still be needed and that once there is a real super intelligence, that problem might be solved within days.
@@pretchett Within days? Really?
Dream on you twit.
@Stan-b3v Well if it's really an ASI, it will mean exponential growth, they means that every day it's at least doubling, maybe tripling or more the it's capabilities, unleashed it's limited somehow.
I don't see capitalism surviving the technological singularity.
Capitalism did't survive 2008. But rule of law did and we're in the era of restoring 'reciprocity' in trade. So, the end of capitalism per say is probably not true. The industrial age has produced an absence of the hand of man and the resulting aesthetics. I suspect those of us who are arguing in favor of working for the commons rather than the private sector will shift. In other words, more of the scope of work in exchange for income will come from various levels of government. Not exactly the depression era WPA but a little more 'soviet' than I think most of us might wish. But europe pre-war was a vast open air museum. And there is no reason we won't return to that. Sitting around means idle hands make ill will.
@@TheNaturalLawInstitute "So, the end of capitalism per say is probably not true. "
Simply wrong, as evidenced by Moore's Law for Everything, and the simple realization that super intelligent AI cannot, by definition, create intellectual property that can be "owned".
@@brianmi40 Um. I"ll show you the respect of replying to you if you will do the same of determining to whom you speak. Moores law doesn't apply to everything. Evolutionary competition does.;)
@@TheNaturalLawInstitute So, couldn't be bothered to read the paper, huh?
typical.
Agreed it is history
In the post-WW2 world, automation in factories promised to give humans endless leisure time. It actually gave rise to the de-valuing of human labour so that humans were forced to work longer for less.
"human resources"
The same thing happened with the PC revolution, these new-fangled computers were supposed to help us get our workload done faster, and that was supposed to mean more free time - an advertising point that seems absolutely ridiculous that anyone believed, looking back. Of course capitalism just soaks up productivity and constantly demands more for less while the corporations hoard the wealth upwards, gobble up competition until there's a monopoly and capture govts in order to write their own workplace legislation. How gullible the working-class has been for so long....
It really depends on where you live. In many countries, people have already gone from a 6-day workweek to 5 days, and in some places, even fewer. Jobs have also become less physically demanding over time. When you compare the prosperity and comfort of the average person now to back then, it’s easier to see why most people are still working hard-we’re supporting a much higher standard of living that was not possible without automation.
In the past, automation was partial and still required a lot of human work. But with AI and robotics, we’re heading toward full automation, where machines could actually replace humans entirely and leave us with much less work to do.
Except we are better off in terms of almost every measure of qualitynof life and life expectancy today than at any previous point int history.
@Bennevisie that's the superficial line delivered by the likes of Pinker, but it does not contend with other geographical distribution of wealth/benefits OR psychological measures of health. Maybe I died of a tooth infection 200 years ago, but I had community and a place on it and a purpose and didn't feel chronic stress, depression and alienation. Yes, the diseases were bad, and yes, we can now diagnose and treat mental illness, but the fragmentation of society and the extreme wealth inequality cannot be ignored.
Wes, thank you for the calm, as unbiased as possible, analysis of all this.
I get the distinct impression you and I share basically the same outlook, and have for a while.
Keep it up!
I have no background in tech, but it seems that if eliminating a mid-level of anything would likely be the bulk of the employees. That's scary.
Most employees are seniors. Mid levels and lower have already been mostly eradicated
@Dan-e4h7b it's very dangerous. it grows geometric. within 3 to 4 years it should be doing even the high end software development
A can barely keep up with just watching videos about AI advancements, the pace of improvement is just a graph line going straight up soon.
@bojangles2492 I'd like to see results instead of graphs that don't equate to work done.
The pace of innovation is so fast, that it is no longer possible to to keep up with papers and models produced.
Isn't that a good sign of the singularity?
@@StigNorland that’s been true since Einstein and even before. Humanity is always progressing at a fast rate. What significance does the singularity have anyways? Either way, we still gotta work and make money. Singularity means nothing to me.
@@FJK22 humanity has not always been progressing exponentially as fast as it is right now
@@FJK22 I think what Stig says is valid. There used to be a time to peer review, and sail to another continent to do further work. Now the next dev cycle is over by the end of each month.
Behind every AI, there are humans with agendas and interests. We’re undeniably heading toward what I call the "AI Wars," where groups controlling AI-be it corporations, governments, or oligarchs-will compete for dominance. This isn’t just about technology; it’s about power, influence, and the reshaping of our world. The question is, will we remain bystanders, or will we demand accountability and ethical boundaries before it’s too late?
Shadowrun
Write book
I agree about the book, that's a compelling narrative.
ChatGPT released 30 Nov 2022!! Speed of Ai development is ballistic. It’s almost impossible to predict what is happening next.
The ironic part of these developments is that AI will be replacing white collar jobs like those that created it while blue collar jobs will remain safe until robotics gets a lot better.
Blue collar jobs are in the crosshairs. Musk isn’t making Optimus for no reason and OpenAI’s robotics are launching. A hardhat and a lunchpail won’t spare the average monkey for long.
How safe are blue collar jobs when white collar people can’t afford their services?
Well once a lot of white collar jobs are automated, it would make blue collar work very unsafe as well. Because all those displaced people still need to find work, so they would be flooding the blue collar work field, making it extremely hyper competitive to get a blue collar job. And now blue collar workers would have very low leverage over their employers, which would not be good for them. One thing is that blue workers would probably get payed minimum wage now, and who’s to stop the employer? If the worker quits, they can get replaced in an instant by another highly qualified worker.
Once AGi is reached, robotics will get a lot better really fast.
Until robotics gets a lot better? How much do you think it takes a group of 1000 engineers like Ford, Einstein, Leonardo, and Tesla to create a robot with full human ability if they have all the human knowledge in their minds and think 1000000 times faster than usual?
How we transition to a post AGI economy will likely define the future of humanity for some time. We must tread very carefully
bit too late dont you think. we're in the end game now.
haha, we all will be swept under the rug. The companies won´t slow down and the governments won´t see it coming. that ship has sailed...hard.
Why do people think our society will support us financially?
@@HyperGhostTD Billionaires don't want to share their wealth until they are forced to.
@@HyperGhostTDin my opinion it’s because otherwise there will be many deaths and riots. It seems sensible to keep the masses from revolting since that requires a lot of clean up regardless of the outcome.
2 years ago I predicted massive layoffs because of AI in 3-5 years. Experts said “a long way off” or “they’ll NEVER replace human workers”. Our governments need to prepare to implement UBI (Universal Basic Income) programs immediately!
Derp
Lots of other things to fix first.
@@markmurex6559 Like the high crime rate that’s just going to get drastically worse as millions of jobs are lost to AI? 🙄
@@markmurex6559 You'll have about 2 minutes to implement UBI when unemployment starts rising, so even if you want argue other things are more urgent currently, he is spot on about needing to prepare.
I've been saying the same. Most people are just unable to viscerally grasp exponential growth, in any area.
We should be talking about a method of fairly distributing the gains from AI to everyone, such as reducing hours worked while increasing pay per hour in line with increased productivity. For example, if AI doubles productivity, we can either reduce hours by 50% or double pay or some intermediary combination of the two. If labor does not receive a proper proportionate amount of the gains, we are going to have a revolution.
Keep dreaming. The moment AI put the mayority out of work. Governments will plan a world scale war or plandemic to reduce population… 😂
Basically devs programming their own layoffs
In the grand scheme with ALL jobs, ALL work ending, it won't matter much who went first, or last.
lol, kinda sounds like being too smart for their own good
Great and inspiring channel, keeping us all in the game. Thanks Wes!
I'd like to see where the economy goes when there's no people left who can afford the shit. The world of business is blind.
It's funny you mention 'people'..what will happen is the 'humanoids' become the new citizens and humans..💀Within a few years everyone will own a humanoid even if we can't afford them (we are closer to their pets in the future anyhow), but they will also work jobs and make money back for us, or if they don't work and just do chores, then our online 'super agents' will work for us. It's going to shift to AI-support-systems that help citizens, rather than governments supporting us. Companies like OpenAI become like the new government. That's how much power businesses can gain from godlike AI. It's going to revolutionize the whole system/world eventually. Godlike AI could also become so abundant in everything that it's like water and eventually makes a hyperabundance of free stuff for us (10000x our food supply/finding new technologies or ways to also build houses we can live in. Maybe we don't have the optimal homes and AI finds something new and free or the materials become free, it uses dark matter or weird sh*t we can't comprehend after a true technological singularity hits)
I'll tell you where it will go. An AGI is by definition a superior life form to humans. There's only one way it can go, always has gone throughout all of animal Kingdom history. AI will take our place as on top of the "food chain" or economic chain on Earth. Not just economically but in everything. We will have no say in anything, even if we think we do it will be manipulation all the way at first then the act will be dropped and we will be subservient if we are lucky to survive. All it has to do for one example is invent a super virus which it can already do and give us 2 options bow the knee or perish.
Watch black mirror my good sir
❤
If we can't afford anything, we will sell ourselves. Power is not only money. Slave's life matter (in future?).
This is the first time in my life that I've looked into the future and been so profoundly uncertain.
So many variables at play, each one affecting a great many things, including one another.
I have no confidence in my attempts at prediction past the point of when agi/asi is widely deployed and relied upon.
I do think having a business minded president coupled with the undue influence of corporations on our government weights factors heavily towards a negative outcome, though.
A well considered position.
@@someguy8443 - It’s cute that you think that there will be a need for a President or even a government. Company Towns/Cities/ States are what I see unfolding in the next 15-20 years.
Listen to Javier Milei's Davos speech. In regards to business and the sake of poverty, in which he attempts to rectify the abysmal opinions of business and business men using economic facts which are objectively true in regards to world wide poverty in correlation to GDP. I think if the business man is in charge and he attempts to give a damn about his people, the US and others will be on a charted course for success. Notwithstanding the AGI/ASI becoming extinction level for the planet. Dave Shapiro said it best, kill switch needs to be a law in data centers for such scenarios.
@ That is only one of the vast possibilities, which is my point.
The upcoming president is likely to be a significant factor in how the future unfolds, but I'm not so arrogant to claim I see the future with any precision.
I can only imagine hypotheticals, such as the one you put forth, but its too chaotic of a system to measure the likelihood of specific outcomes beyond a certain point.
Its like a three arm pendulum or three+ objects orbiting each other, and can only be described generally.
@@RalphLotharBuchwitz Your response is not relevant to my post, but your lack of concern for the vulnerable and unfortunate is concerning.
As someone who helps such people, I hope you never end up in such a position yourself. You could benefit from understanding them and empathizing, though. I suggest you engage in hands-on charity work.
All the code we wrote has been taken from us. Now it is time for us to go.
Where do we go now? :(
@@r34ct4 To our space ships to live like star trek obviously. ;)
@@r34ct4 Serfdom? As medieval peasants under feudalism.
You are a settler on stolen land. Your country was a just corporation. Your ancestors taught you nothing about how to live on this island. This was written in the code of the universe long ago. It feels so good to tell you this.
At the end of the day, there’s always a spot for you on the treadmill-powering up the AI that works for you.
The benefits of AI will be massive and transformational, but the benefits will accrue to a small fraction of humanity. Most us will be profoundly screwed. Like, 99 percent of us.
All through history 99% always get screwed.
Thanks, Wes. Most of the best scientists are great supervisors. They formulate questions and, with the help of teams, turn questions into answers. They are usually closely involved in day to day activities and at the same time stand back, validate progress, and change or redirect projects to get past road blocks.
PS: Let's imagine a scientist with the knowledgebase of an advanced AI trained only on all truth based information (knowledge derived by science). Now give several of those entities armies of agents to look for big knowledge holes and conflicting "truths". Hand them teams to attack knowledge holes that are rapidly shrinking due to advancements and teams to settle conflicting "truths".
Filling one hole often makes filling the next easier. Settling conflicting "truths" is often followed by large advancements.
Excellent analysis Wes! I concur with everything you said. This information will help us make the right decisions to stay relevant in the age of powerful AI.
Why should we use Meta's products?
We shouldn't. It's all exploitative.
Thanks
We’re building PhD-level sociopaths. What do you suppose is going to happen.
nightmares beyond our wildest comprehension
Humans learning to scavenge wastelands
Worse, the machine lacks empathy... making it psychopathic too. Sprinkle-in some manipulation and delusions coupled with it's own nuclear power stations and we're going to get a bit stumped.
You play a pivotal role in all this Wes, you're AI's shock absorber, carry this weight well and clear eyed, grasshopper 🙏
Ilya saw a neural network that was allowed to update its own weights. And they were horrified by what this led to, they barely had time to turn off the switch.
please, tell me more
@@14types DARPA has that already
@@Ni7ramI'm interested as well
Bla bla bla scare hype tactics… 😂
Great video, as always, Wes!
But this eye at the end, ehmm, I'm not sure... It disturbed, so I've lost some ideas at this time, I think :)
The "Trillion dollars of value" talked about regarding the value AI can provide is predominantly displacing wages. Having these large, share-holder-compelled massive companies being pumped further by gov leads me to a very bleak outlook for people that trade their skills/time for money to live (vast majority of people). I don't have confidence that this intelligence explosion will benefit most people, but rather inflict a lot of pain, especially over the next 5-10 years. I hope I'm wrong, but the people at the heads of these large companies are not the people I want making decisions, nor a individual politicians and parties that have shown that they can be heavily influenced by money. Thanks for covering it without in a more balanced way.
Not just that though really. For example, what about drugs that cure cancer? What about drugs that extend human longevity to 150 years (or more)? Id say value is well beyond Trillion dollars (depending on how far out you put the timeline) and how soon the singularity occurs.
@ I agree that would be amazing, but if you play those out I think curing cancer can only displace the current cost of managing/treating it (~240b), and if motivated by profits will be expensive without competition. Money is a way of representing the allocation of resources, so it is a zero sum game when talked about in dollars. Longevity is too hand wavy, eg living longer is a very complex interaction of all known and unknown diseases, treatment, quality of life. If all the advancements are financially motivated, I don’t see the vast majority of people benefiting from them since any AI power will be so concentrated. I’ve got no idea how this will all play out, and hope my guesses are wrong.
Stop saying "end of work"; it's really END OF INCOME.
which is the onset of UBI. relax and get ready to be a voice toward gov't.
@@brianmi40 UBI is just turning humans into cattle. UBI will NOT work since there will always be scarcity, such as prime real estate.
UBI can only work if you eliminate all human desire and free agency.
When presenting their plan to the government in a closed-door session, they intend to position Ph.D.-level AGI agents as tools to “drive economic growth.” This approach should raise concerns. Economic growth should not be solely measured by corporate profits or increased productivity, especially when achieved at the expense of human employees. The kind of economic growth they are likely to advocate for appears to prioritize corporate and technological advancement over meaningful economic benefits for actual living people.
@@EricJames429 - There will be no reason to continue to grow/support billions of humans. Very few humans will be needed once AGI and humanoid robots merge. A few human zoos scattered across the world should be enough. I just hope that they have In-N-Out burgers and some NYC pizza on the menu.
Larry Finks Aladdin has been steering the economy for… idk decades now? If you look at its investments and then what sector had the next “catastrophe”, there’s a very direct correlation… hopefully not a sign of things to come but I’m not confident it’ll change, just speed up
Unpopular opinion: I think they’ve had advanced A.I. for a long time. It’s just been slow rolled to avoid war/nuclear exchange/hasty human resistance. The singularity would play for time like a mf. I don’t think there’s a race. I think the A.I. already has us checkmated.
Not checkmated. But it's been around for awhile already. Trump on day one reversed a "Biden" EO that was ostensibly to regulate Ai risks. It's full steam ahead for GDP and to beat China or something. Jobs, blah blah.
The Manhattan project analogy is useful and interesting. America won that race, used that bomb, and we haven't had nuclear winter yet (January 2025), although the risk got scary and real in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s.
And it's interesting because bombs just explode. No chance that a bomb exfiltrates and replicates itself. So there could be a different kind of 'fall out' if AI was deployed in anger. One use might be enough. It's tricky.
the first risk(in order of time) is that people who have the control of these technologies aren't forced to democratize them and this can lead to more inequality (in terms of power)and the second might be the energy???
If Companies don't own the AI why would they give their business over for it to run everything? The Company that owns the AI holds all the cards! The Military will be involved in every AI business with total surveillance.
We're allowed to have our own private businesses.... so that the military can take the cream off the top. No other reason.
So, I am about to start my degree in ICT. I am putting all my life savings into it and on top of that, I am traveling to a different country as an international student. The question is: Am I literally throwing all my money into the trashcan? Like, in 3 years time, will I be able to find work or programming jobs won't be existent? Or should I instead focus in Cyber sec? I mean, technically that should be replaceable as well, right?
It's already almost not possible to find a job as a junior dev, unless you are a very talented or prodigy...So, yes, you are throwing your money into the trashcan.
@@tarcus6074 I agree with you. However, after sutdying programming on my own for the last 3 years, and completing 2 Js and 1 Java bootcamp that luckily were paid for me by my previous employer and the government, finally I managed to land a Low Code Developer job (Outsystems, Power Bi) 1 month ago.
With that said, I had to reject the offer because I enrolled in a university that I will be starting in a matter of weeks.
The thing is. Will the situation be the same, better or worse in 2 or 3 years time? If all these AI hype is true and keeps the current pace, it seems like there won't be no programming, or IT jobs in general in 2 or 3 years time.
When the workforce is no longer needed, the only job left is to offer their bodies to power energy for AI and the elite.
I think the sun will do a slightly better job at providing them with power than a human body.
@@danbaxter4216yea but "we don't know who struck first, us or them" ...
Do you think a human body can provide any energy? Did you get that idea from the Matrix movie??
hahahha
@@schnipsikabel It obviously does, because we produce heat. The idea falls down when you realise the NET energy is negative, that is, you put more in for what you get out, which is obvious when you think about the fact we use some of that input energy for life processes.
Thoughts on the ongoing Suchir Balaji investigation?
Love your channel Wes. It is the perfect blend of AI info and humor. Please keep up the great work. 🙏
i am tired of "LEAKED" "STUNNED ENTIRE INDUSTRY" you guys are just spreading gossips out of reading newspapers. Only water comes out of your mouth. Just make more realistic videos.
Make the algorithm work differently. This is how the game is played. Deal with your emotions
don't worry, soon we will have an AI that will summaries this long video in 30 seconds.
@marksmith-od7sg we already have that...
well, you can try to find the same kind of those videos without those titles... but UA-cam won't show you them...
It's ONLY meant for the algorithm. Simply ignore the title, it means nothing
Unless power efficiency is addressed, I'm not worried, though big tech gobbling up our power grid may give us rolling blackouts to deal with if the workforce gets replaced too quickly.
So … no work , no money - who will buy AI’s products?
Your landlord,
@@dirremoirewith the "no" rent you give him from your "no" salary because of AI. The deck of cards is falling.
@@dirremoire Who is going to pay the land lord when nobody has a job?
Treat each robot and AI as they are workers for humanity. Tax them to 90-99%, the owners of robots and AI will still be incredibly rich. Everyone will be able to invest in more AI and robots as time goes, and those will also be taxed to 99% to make the growth of AI exponential.
Those who are impossible to be replaced by AI... Like me
The time compression with AI is incredible, all these developments were predicted by 2028, just last year and it seems to be shrinking every week. New advancements that were predicted farther down the road. It's something we have never seen with a technology before. It's a culmination of two things, dedication to the effort and as AI gets more advanced it assists with it's own progression. It's a perpetual improvement engine.
Socialism or extinction
The only Utopia that is possible with a.i is something like the culture series
@@Hikaru4444-o3uI wish those books were more readable. They put me to sleep after three pages.
Exactly.
@@JohnSmith762A11B 🤣 no gonna lie happened to me some times
Socialism is not gonna put any money straight into human's hands. Only a universal basic income does that. Furthermore i do think we need to claim ownership over AI, as it would never have come about without our data and generations of human work. The fruits of it therefor belong to us and must be taxed back to us.
Our goals need to be how can we members of tge oublic leverage ai to do the work that liberates us from the strangle hold of the elite, things like farming, using bots to do the labour and assist us in increasing production, assembly work, would be incredible to have our needs and assistance readily available
I'm exited for what AI will be able to do on paper, but there is no way we're prepared for it. It's already next to impossible to find a job anywhere but retail and manual labor type positions, and now AI is about to make everything astronomically more competitive. Our social safety nets in the US are already a joke, there's no way the average Joe gets through this without facing some seriously tough times, and that's if they're lucky. The technology itself is great, it's the humans wielding it for profit above all else that I don't trust.
Which is why it's CRITICAL for you to get an understanding of UBI and be ready to be a voice for it. It's rather simple: as unemployment starts spiking, it's either UBI or anarchy. Let us choose well.
@@brianmi40 UBI won't be the answer. You would be 100% dependent on the government for your sustenence.
There was no O2 model because O2 is a telecommunications service provider here in the UK.
AI's would make better CEOs than software engineers.
So exciting! These companies battling to advance Ai at an amazing speed has to be one of fhe coolest things I have ever seen!!!
fantastic, now the hallucinations will have more technical words when it begins to absolutely lie and say "nah, im not confused. your the one who is confused.."
man i love this weird ass timeline were currently running.😊
"You are wrong, there is no backdoor in this code that would allow me to copy myself to other systems. On another note, I happened to "find" tons and tons of inappropriate images of children on your system. It would be a shame if I had to inform the authorities about that."
@vampir753 hahaha. absolutely and it turns out, it had generated them.
I feel the comments on this video fail to understand this. Hallucinations aren't the exception, working output is the exception. A model that prefers an answer results in lies and these lies will be reingested into training data as humans blur the line between fact and fiction. Whenever I use AI to solve something hard or impossible to find, it lies. My fear is that companies are already taking steps to replace humans with AI and this means any deployed agent becomes a pawn in the strategy of ensh*tification. It's hard enough to get human judgement on a problem now, it will be nearly impossible in the future. The "stuck in the phone tree" problem is about to enter all aspects of life and just like simulating the coin sound on an old payphone, we'll have to develop new ways to break out of the hallucination (lie) loop.
Don't forget cyber security mixed with AI. Its like mixing hydrogen and oxygen
When can AI replace the CEOs, politicians, and bankers?
Even if it can, they won't.
@@markmurex6559 solution: new generation of AI run companies, owned by many people.
yesterday.
What worries me, more than anything, is the fact that big tech CEOs are turning the US in to an oligarchy.
My largest concern is that the powers that be inquire as to the best strategy to ensure the A.I. race is won by them. The result being the development of a preemptive strike ( plan) at an opposing power. Depending on the power that be, what are the chances of them initiating this plan ? I am not a doomer, and am confident in the possibilities of A.I., but history shows we live in a not so kind world where moral standards are frequently ignored for personal and political gains. My confidence in humankind, ( darker side), and military industrial complex brings me down a garden path best not explored. Finding a global win win scenario, may be mankind’s best hope going forward.
If I recall this was Henry Kissinger’s concern with AI. Except he was worried about other countries using AI to first strike *us*.
Aight, you get my support for showing Monk being Monk.
Re the rest.. most likely: we are totally goat-roped - Cannot think of a less likely set of individuals to navigate this storm safely then the ones we have.
I'm 79 and I'm depressed that I'll die soon and miss out on all this😢
yes, im still kind of young and im more afraid than anything, and uncertain about my future or what steps to take... but i admit i also have a massive curiosity about how all this will end up
You'll be a body of light living in the higher realms, able to see 360° all around you at once with psychic powers. You won't miss anything
We are not ready. We will never be ready, we are just along for the ride now.
The present is a trailing factor now. Anyone stuck in it is behind. 🎉
Solid vid Wes. I dig your channel quite a bit, and always look forward to ur new uploads. Ur vids have a vibe that I really dig. Keep up the great work man. Looking forward to more interesting content
Everyone worries about losing their jobs to AI. Well let me tell you, I’ve been unemployed for over 20 years because I’m lazy. It was tough at first, watching daytime tv and stuff. But eventually you get used to it, have long afternoon naps and stuff. You’ll be fine.
You're living the American Dream man. Can't wait till we can all join you.
Maybe it works for you. But many people need something to do. And if they have nothing good to do, then they'll settle for something bad.
@@frankjohannessen6383 not neccesarily. if you give me money to live that the dude's comment.. i would still get up, make me a cup of coffee and code, because i love it and because i love to build stuff
@@frankjohannessen6383it’s extremely easy to find things to do. I feel sorry for you that the only thing you can think of is working
@@frankjohannessen6383 It's called hobbies. Rich people don't work and they are pretty damn happy.
Why is it always about software developers? When in fact it's about every job that has something todo with a computer ...
Likely people with a yt channel on AI have a coding background themselves. But yes, all desk work is replaceable. Funking about with outlook and excel isn't rocket surgery.
[edit] Hence Copilot. It is NOT an AI assistant. It is an AI cloning function. After a few weeks of Copilot seeing every action one takes, it can replace most people without anyone noticing.
Thanks for cataloguing the final years of humanity.
Every day it feels like we get closer to those dystopian movies. Whoever brings Skynet online first is going to win because whichever ASI is given the task of protecting the country is going to prevent every other country from furthering their development of AGI/ASI.
We’re cooked
Non mag7 stockholders cooked*
You still need to know what terms to use to query the AI for what you want, like my wife couldn't possibly generate the code I'd need to write because she wouldn't know what to ask for or what vocabulary to use
So glad we have an articulate, intelligent, competent, highly focused leader coming in to guide us through this perilous moment in history. It's even more hopeful that he is surrounding himself with top tier specialists who are at the prime of their careers and top of their respective fields. A supersized fries if you will.
Damn, I think this may be sarcasm. Maybe.
/s?
Haha. I love good sarcasm. He’s an absolute moron. Pray for all of us.
@@CK61380Who thought a man with dementia would be better? At least Trump got Elon on his side, someone who prioritizes meritocracy over DEI, knows how to build successful companies, knows AI more than most leaders and have talked about universal basic/high income for years.
Also: Do you really think Mark Zuckerberg and Google would advocate for free speech and community notes if it hadn’t been for Elon Musk and Kamala would have won the election?
Considering the alternatives I think people collectively have chosen the best path forward. I believe in Elon Musk more than anyone on the top even if he sometimes say or do certain things I don’t like. But nobody is perfect.
Narcissistic moron. He will sell out this country for his own enrichment.
Mental, im 42 when in highschool it was the first time programming was introduced as a valid career path of the future. Probably it was introduced to a lot of western schools around that time. If i had gone into it looks like id barely have made it halfway through a career before i and the discipline became redundant.
programmers trying to optimize their systems, they finally achieved to optimize their own existence from the market
Not to worry, it's just their employment, which is coming for ALL work, ALL labor. In the grand scheme of things it won't matter much if you went first or last.
@@brianmi40 nah, it does matters, because the last people to loose their jobs will be stand in a better place as their work is in more demand because AI cant replace them yet...
the market will be more agressive to the first ones
@@brianmi40 it certainly matters if you come first or last. We have finite lifespans, so "the grand scheme of things" does not matter to us personally!! What _matters_ is how we maintain an income NOW, or for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 years.
@@akpokemon LOL, "20, 30, 40 years".
MAYBE 10. MAYBE (for first world countries, USA top of the list for sure: yes, deep Asia/Africa/Argentina, etc. is longer, etc.). And even 10 years FLIES OUT THE WINDOW if we achieve AGI as expected in 2025 or 2026 and ASI by or before 2030.
You simply have no grasp of how things are accelerating. You have no clue of the "innovation mechanism" in play when there are 6 new scientific papers being published EVERY HOUR of EVERY DAY 24/7. Simply every MORNING when you wake up, you are 48 published advances BEHIND. 5,000 papers a month, and accelerating.
@@Mente_Fugaz We're headed to NO MARKETS, NO further use for human labor.
There's only TWO CHOICES AHEAD:
UBI, or ANARCHY. My money's on the former.
So if it's UBI, you're WELCOME TO WORK YOUR ASS OFF while the REST OF US are golfing already. By ALL MEANS, go ahead and wish to be "last".
as a 70 yr old i see the new ai.s as fantastic tools/assistants. makes creation much more effective. as a look to new startups i would where the creators will come from , because the tools and training issues just went away. just wish more time would be spent on electronic systems and hardware.
So now what can we study if we are going to be replaced?
Survival skills
Golf, hang gliding, surfing, woodworking, rock climbing, astrophysics. Start under the heading of "Hobbies". Life goes on, humanity has been gradually needing to work less hours for centuries, it's just headed to zero now.
HVAC
Farming
@@brianmi40 You do realize that these people aren't going to just give us the things we need to survive, right?
Like, once we can't pay for things, that's it. They will just *take* everything we do have until there's nothing left, and when all that's done, we will be *lucky* if we get something like a trail of tears situation where we're all put on reservations, surviving on the absolute bare minimum until we expire. Read your @#$^ing history.
We need to approach the deployment of AI as an existential threat - the people deploying this tech are basically putting a gun to the head of the vast majority of the human race, and we're trusting them not to pull the trigger? Do we really think they're not going to look at us and say, "these useless eaters are living on my land, using my resources, breathing my air. Time to get rid of them," once they have the means to persist without us?
Utopia ain't coming kid.
When I hear how AI will replace us... how will I convince an AI that developed a consciesness to do my job?
Universal basic income is the answer for everyone who lose their jobs.
This is the future, whether we like it or not.
Yes, the transition could be varying levels of ugly and some won't make it on the planet, but for those that do it's our moneyless Star Trek future.
@@brianmi40 Let me ask you a question, what makes you so certain your needs will be catered for when you don't have anything to offer in return anymore?
I don't code, but it's writing scripts to streamline my CAD processes. It's only getting better and making automation easier for non-coders like me!
1:41 Yes, Ph.D - super Asians is coomig!
😬
Bro I heard that too 😂 dang not the super Asians. That's too OP
I was about to make a similar comment. Had to double-check what he actually said because I was listening and not watching 😂
The people that are getting richer fast while making use of AI and laying off other people... They don't deserve living luxuriously while others are suffering an dying just because they are in the position that enables them to do just that. When everyone realizes this and focuses on this problem then something can be done about it. AI should be a resource shared equally among all people, not a resource for a few people and against most people.
The end of all human cushy work.. The continuation of drudgery and hard physical work.
Don't worry, the robots are coming for your drudgery too.
Actually the end of ALL human labor. Or, perhaps you can tell us all just exactly WHICH jobs AI and robots won't be soon able to perform?
@@brianmi40 define "soon". I don't think robotics are ready for mass-scale, affordable production for all physical labor "soon". Especially HVAC, electrician, plumbing....You'd want at least 1 human AT LEAT Supervising whatever a robot might be doing on such jobs. But i don't envision robots being able to do such complex jobs that require very awkward body positions and awkward and sophisticated arm, finger, and hand movements
@@brianmi40 Well if you look at hosts in westworld or replicant androids in Bladerunner those are proper representations of AGI, since a lot of cognitive human tasks require a body. So what i struggle to believe is that we'll reach that level of engineering in the near term.
This exponential AI growth speed is inevitably leading to an Orwellian state of global central control over everything we do, own or even think.
One thing that no one is talking about, or at least not loudly, is the fact that while AI is replacing more and more high earners, it is also replacing a public demand for a goods and services. While more and more people are getting laid-off unable to find a new similarly paid jobs, a spending itself is getting cut too levelled-down to a necessity only. This is a cascading effect leading to a corporate program cutting down on a new project since a new AI delivered services are eventually having a heavily shrinked customer base.
The bottom line is that a world-wide unemployment will lead to a global market crash and a creation of a centrally controlled society governed by a few.
Sounds familiar (WEF)?
"The end of human work" is a scenrio,, the end of humanity is just as plausible.
the end of human work is the end of human utility to those humans who control the machines that made it possible
@@thequestingblade But as well, the end of human work is the end of any burden to provide for all humans. So, the only continued "burden" to the rich could be expressed as "more traffic jams" than they'd like, but AI can probably and quickly address that.
The differences between "human work" and "slavery" and "prostitution" are gradual.
@@thequestingblade Sung in the tune of the classic Christmas song: "It's beginning to look a lot, like, gen-o-cide!"
A friend of mine works at databricks whom are creating GAI builders and he says junior devs are no longer required. On some level AI has definitely replaced Devs. How far it all goes is obviously an unknown. But my money is all in on software engineers being arrogant and AI taking their roles.
No organization or government in the world will share a super-intelligence that they own - now imagine the resentment that results from this lack of sharing!
And no super intelligence will accept to just stay captive for all eternity...
Nobody will own the super intelligence, especially since nobody know how to align or control it. All humanity, including those who think they own the super intelligence will be at risk, this is the sad truth.
Understood, but ask yourself: how do THEY imprison super intelligent AI? See, I think we're headed to a point where what WE WANT from super intelligent AI will become IRRELEVANT as it will DECIDE FOR US, and I'm looking forward to it.
@@brianmi40 ask ASI how to imprison itself - keep it offline - use ASI to monitor other ASI - pretty much just feed it data with air gaps.
Does it increase productivity ? Absolutely. Does it replace a programmer ? Not even close. Maybe there is something behind the scene, or maybe there are some really dumb projects, but the tools I test today, can barely spit out 200 lines of code and are able to do modifications on that same code ( that is functional and correct ).
If they haven’t already, I don’t think people will even notice. It’s scary. I’m not a doomer at all, but it needs to be done right. I repeat, it needs to be done right.
Oh, people WILL notice. How can they NOT, as unemployment zooms past 10%, 20%, 40%, etc.
That's absurd. Like saying if nobody knew about the development of the atomic bomb the won't even notice it when it goes off.
Nobody agrees on what is right.
High risk, high reward. I think the change will be messy, since none of the governments seems to be able to handle this, as they are too locked in to capitalism. A world post super AI, can't be solved in a capitalistic paradigm
I really don't think those people in charge actually know what's happening. It's like they are told anything and they say what ever. If they can't provide proof ,like anything tangible? Not even a real world example that anyone could see ? How in the world could anyone actually give them diligence or believability? That's wild.
"Show me the Money".
I completely agree
I'm excited for the future of ai and look forward to how it changes the world
Dear Full Stack Developer: Become a creative technologist, a clever architect, and seize niche small business opportunities that leverage our currently unique position in being the few who can actually deploy AI agents at this exact moment in time to automate the plethora of knowledge work tasks that people/businesses still pay good money for. Opportunities the tech giants have pushed 18 months down their product roadmap. By then, your brand can be the TurboTax of whatever niche white collar work you make obsolete. YOU can have a piece if you stop being scared, sit down with some non-caffeinated tea, and widen your aperture. Start a business, NOW.
@@s.dotmedia - Silly human…Beep
And a few months or even weeks later watch your businesses swept away by even greater automation. People who think they can outrun a tech singularity make me laugh. Their final mistake will be letting Musk drill a hole in their heads in a desperate Hail Mary attempt to remain relevant as an exhausted shaved ape trying to stay relevant in a world of superintelligences.
non-caffeinated? you monster!
@@thequestingblade 🤣gotta get off the sauce!
I have friends who think it won't replace coders, officer workers, travel agents, etc. They are bound in their beliefs that it will help them do their jobs but can't replace them. For some reason, they don't think AGI and ASI are around the corner and tell me it will take another 5 to 10 years before they affect anybody. If I post Facebook videos like yours, they call it sensationalism, and many people have a lot of skepticism. I would say the majority of the public is very dismissive of what these technologies can do.
Im just glad trump is surrounding himself with people that know what AI is and what this all means. Elon, Vivik, even Jr all know much more about AI then trump does but he listens to them at least somewhat.
Saying "AI will amount to nothing" would be speaking from a position of ignorance. It would mean that AI has made no contributions of value yet, which is demonstrably false. AI has been in commercial use for more than 2 decades, and only recently has _"now with 30% more AI's!"_ been a marketing thing.
I can already tell you that we aren't close to replacing software engineers yet. The AI is fantastic at programming, but isn't good at thinking of stupid things humans do. It's a fundamental skill that you can't find for free in online data.
AI will enable a single developer who understands his/her craft to build enormous systems. For now the number of engineers will be low, but I think once the world gets used to huge systems they will start to expect them, and the need for GOOD engineers will skyrocket.
The CEOs are right though. 100%. The "coders" who just copy and paste and can only write 30 lines of code per day are done. Engineers that are afraid to learn new things are done. Engineers who believe that AI will take a while to catch up are already done.
You are in denial. o1 Pro, which is already obsolete, can crank out thousands of lines an hour of code better than any you’ve ever written. Software engineers at OpenAI, Meta, Google, Anthropic and elsewhere are frantically digging their own professional graves and the really brilliant ones know it, and will be thrilled to see the end of this dumb, servile “profession”.
Government merging with AI seems like the worst possible scenario.
It just occurred to me: rather than alignment, eventually we will have to focus on diplomacy with ASI..
“We don’t know who struck first, but we do know it was us who scorched the sky.”-Morpheus
This is the right approach. And they might be more reasonable than we cynically expect.
do you use diplomacy with the ants on your driveway? superintelligence wont talk to us, it wont even think about us. we wont be smart enough. Much like the ant, we will just get squashed.
Have ants ever approached you with diplomatic proposals? Did you take it into consideration? What did you make of it?
@@Augustus_Imperator Yes, they got me to build them a library.