Just saw The Substance and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a Demi Moore Oscar nomination. I can just hear the press gallery gasp when they announce her name.
I think Demi has a great shot of getting into that #5 slot. Plus the movie has shortlisting in other categories like Screenplay, makeup, production design etc vs Hereditary and Us
I would put her in the number 5 slot. She was once the highest paid actress in Hollywood and I think her comeback throughout the last year ( Capote: the Swans) is going to help.
Best Actress Predictions 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) 2. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) 3. Angelina Jolie (Maria) 4. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) 5. Demi Moore (The Substance) Best Actor Predictions 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 4. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
I've already seen 'The Substance' for the 4th time in the theater, and I still love it. As of now, 'The Substance' is my number one favorite movie of the year, and Demi gives the best performance of the year. My fingers are still crossed for her to get that Oscar nomination.
Same! I’ve seen it 4x and the movie gets better and better each time. The best theatre experience I’ve had since Parasite. Demi completely blew me away with her fearless performance
@bryanalstoncoxing Same here, man. It's one of those movie's I couldn't get out of my head for weeks. The first time I watched it, my head spinning and I was thinking "What the fuck was that?!?!" I wasn't sure if I hated it, liked it, or loved it. Second time watching it, I'm analyzing it, and I began to really like it. The third time, I ended up loving it. The fourth time, I went because I just loved the film. For me, it's the best theater experience since 'Once Upon a Time In Hollywood.' I kept on encouraging people to see in the theater. I already took my parents to see it. Haha! It's just that you won't get the same experience at home watching it on TV. A film like this is meant to be watched at the theater. Agree. Demi is phenomenal! It's a triumphant performance and comeback. I'm happy to see her back. I hope this won't be just a moment for her, I hope she'll continue to get more great material coming her way. Plus, she was already in 'Feud: Capote vs The Swans,' this film, and next month, the series 'Landman' will be released. For now, I'm really hoping she'll get the Golden Globe and the Oscar nomination.
Demi Moore is handsdown the best of the year so far. She is electric perfection every single second on screen. Also her physical acting in prosthetics was so convincing. If they can 'Poor Things', then maybe their selection process has broadened.
I feel like the hype for Ronan might be overstated, it seems like people like her a lot but they don't like the film a lot, so while she might have some buzz, they could just snub her in the end off the film itself.
@@TheOscarExpert Yeah her name alone is strong enough for voters to see it, but I still feel like they might just be like, "well we like Blitz more, so let's just nominate her for that in Supporting, and then put in someone like Kidman, Moore, Adams, Baptiste, etc." When there are this many contenders, they might just not care about name recognition, especially if Gascon & Madison are looking like frontrunners to win. In Actor though, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone get in on name recognition alone.
I hope you're right, she freaking went for it in a way I've never seen her go before! It was a surprise when Weaver got nominated for Aliens, and Burstyn for Exorcist was really out of the ordinary in the early 70's, so it's not out of the question historically...it's just the body gore that could have voters over 50 walking out of the screening or turning off the dvd. But honestly, in the picture, by that point, she's already given her performance.
I think Demi Moore might be a lock for nomination just for her star power. I've read her wiki recently and her biggest award "success" is with Golden Raspberries, which is ridiculous. And unfair. She's a superstar. You ask my mother, who's 76 and lived in Ukraine her whole life, and she'll know who Demi Moore is, and not just know, but consider her one of the top actresses in America. Now she's a lead in a movie with a considerable buzz in a weak scattered year, so yeah... I'd say she's getting nominated. And I don't even like The Substance, it's so on the nose. But Demi is good there and so so overdue for at least a nomination. It's probably going to happen
Sorry to tell you, Hard Truths is an incomplete film , with incomplete story and incomplete character development. Marianne Jean- Baptise isn't getting in. Even Amy Adams and Tilda Swinton have more chance.
By my count there's been 31 nominations for a horror performance, and 6 wins: 1. 1931/32: Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Lead, *Won*) 2. 1945: Angela Lansbury (The Picture of Dorian Gray, Supporting) 3. 1946: Ethel Barrymore (The Spiral Staircase, Supporting) 4. 1956: Nancy Kelly (The Bad Seed, Lead) 5. 1956: Eileen Heckart (The Bad Seed, Supporting) 6. 1956: Patty McCormack (The Bad Seed, Supporting) 7. 1960: Janet Leigh (Psycho, Supporting) 8. 1962: Bette Davis (What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?, Lead) 9. 1962: Victor Buono (What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?, Supporting) 10. 1964: Agnes Moorehead (Hush…Hush, Sweet Charlotte, Supporting) 11. 1965: Samantha Eggar (The Collector, Lead) 12. 1967: Audrey Hepburn (Wait until Dark, Lead) 13. 1968: Ruth Gordon (Rosemary’s Baby, Supporting, *Won*) 14. 1973: Ellen Burstyn (The Exorcist, Lead) 15. 1973: Jason Miller (The Exorcist, Supporting) 16. 1973: Linda Blair (The Exorcist, Supporting) 17. 1976: Sissy Spacek (Carrie, Lead) 18. 1976: Piper Laurie (Carrie, Supporting) 19. 1986: Sigourney Weaver (Aliens, Lead) 20. 1987: Glenn Close (Fatal Attraction, Lead) 21. 1987: Anne Archer (Fatal Attraction, Supporting) 22. 1990: Kathy Bates (Misery, Lead, *Won*) 23. 1991: Anthony Hopkins (The Silence of the Lambs, Lead, *Won*) 24. 1991: Jodie Foster (The Silence of the Lambs, Lead, *Won*) 25. 1991: Robert De Niro (Cape Fear, Lead) 26. 1991: Juliette Lewis (Cape Fear, Supporting) 27. 1999: Haley Joel Osment (The Sixth Sense, Supporting) 28. 1999: Toni Collette (The Sixth Sense, Supporting) 29. 2007: Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Lead) 30. 2010: Natalie Portman (Black Swan, Lead, *Won*) 31. 2017: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out, Lead) Did I miss any? What were the most egregious snubs of performances in this genre? I'd say maybe Anthony Perkins in Psycho, Toni Collette in Hereditary, Isabelle Adjani in Possession, Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, Lupita Nyong'o in Us, Christian Bale in American Psycho, Shelley Duvall and Jack Nicholson in The Shining, Robert Mitchum in The Night of the Hunter, and Mia Goth in Pearl.
Misery, Silence of the Lambs, Black Swan and Get Out are different types of Horror, I'd consider them more thrillers tbh. I think if the Substance didn't go as hard on the "Body Horror" stuff towards the end Demi Moore would've been a lock and Best Picture would've been very likely too.
@777L777E777 I don't have trouble considering any of those as horror, but I do personally think of What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? and Hush...Hush, Sweet Charlotte as just thrillers, not horror. But Wikipedia calls them horror, so I included them anyway.
An interesting corollary: 6 wins and 31 noms is almost exactly a 1:5 ratio, precisely what we would expect (ceteris paribus) in a contest with 5 competitors. So while there may be a genre bias at the nomination stage, there doesn't seem to be one at the voting stage: horror performances are just as likely to win as the other nominees.
I think Ralph Fiennes or Adrien Brody is your winner for Lead Actor. I do think that Fiennes is being underestimated both due to overdue narrative and also since CONCLAVE is an Adapted Screenplay frontrunner. Don’t forget THE FATHER also won here.
@@friendlypup5650 The point in bringing up CONCLAVE/THE FATHER comparison was to show the parallels in the potential paths. Speaking of which, one interesting observation: Since 2007, all except 2 of the Best Actor Oscar winning films won at least 2 Oscars (Actor + one other category at the bare minimum), and the only actors to win as the sole representative of their films since 2007 are Eddie Redmayne and Will Smith. THE BRUTALIST absolutely needs to win at least one more category in order for Brody to have a chance, and CONCLAVE being a potential favorite in Adapted gives Ralph Fiennes a path to victory.
Even though there are many heavyweight actors in Best Actor, I feel like this year's race is very boring. Best Actress race on the other hand, is very interesting.
Some of you will hype up Anora like it's the best film made, but thinking Angelina doesn't have chance is crazy. She won 25 years ago and this will be comeback role for her more than Demi Moore, also If you don't know who Maria Callas was and just don't like Opera, doesn't mean you can't enjoy the film. We get it that Princess Diana is more famous and more likely to be liked by younger viewers but Angelina had brilliant performance and would love her to win and prove some of you wrong.
@@rocky-o I get that not everyone loves Opera but I don't like when people are not objective, just because it has a hype, they have to like, even though they don't understand anything and I don't like that.
@@davidmckesey7119 It's hard to believe that A24 managed to get three movies with nominations for Best Actor at the same time. Besides, I'd bet on Stan, who plays big-name roles, more than Craig, who's in artsy films. The competition this year is really weak. If "All of Us are Strangers" had been released this year instead of last, it might have made for the most undisputed five nominees.
Don't underestimate Maria for Best actress, the golden globes nominated Angelina Jolie for the tourist Demi Moore for the substance could surprise for Best actress. sag did nominate aj for a mighty heart, she could wins sag.
Demi Moore is getting nominated and will get a HUGE round of applause on the night - RESPECT! She has delivered the most talked about scene in one of the most talked about films of the year. I cannot imagine she will be left out of the running and she will win LAFC, for sure, and get a CC & GG nom. Angelina Jolie will likely get snubbed by BAFTA. The British are very funny about Maria Callas and were not fans of the Terrence McNally play, Master Class, when it had a short run in the West End. The reviews were like, "I thought this was supposed to be about Maria Callas...?" and "Who is this woman strutting upon the stage? She is amusing but she's not Maria Callas." So unless this is deeply, incredibly faithful to Callas, they will not be impressed. If Barbara Broccoli had produced Queer then Craig would at least get a BAFTA nomination. Alas, she did not. I don't think BAFTA or the Academy for that matter is going to go for the title. Queer has very little international distribution as of yet - again, probably impossible to market in a lot of countries. One can only imagine the amount of arm-twisting CAA had to do to get A24 to pick up for U.S. distribution just days before Venice - I'm sure the terms are very favourable to A24 - because it was approaching a Megalopolis situation to have a $50M film premiere without any distribution. But what can A24 do to help Craig when they've also got The Brutalist and Sing Sing in serious competition in Best Actor?? Academy members only get one vote. Queer is likely to go down as a big swing and a miss. That leaves the door open for another studio to get in, most likely Mescal - and the narrative is, "What a star! Made the transition from indie fav to big-time studio filmmaking!" In a weak and yet somehow already decisive year (with Brody), that'll do. Chalamet will be nominated just to try and boost the rating for the evening and to generations of young filimgoers, he will forever be "Bob Dylan" to them. lol
But she was in it, a movie from five years ago. If she’s still a newcomer despite the talent which apparently is evident in Anora, that’s kind of the industry’s fault. I still haven’t seen either Anora or The Substance, but Margaret Qualley broke out from that film, and in my opinion is a bland performer. Madison in that film actually impressed me a lot with her limited screentime, also in the film Nostalgia.
My Best Actress Predictions 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) 2. Emilia Gascon (Emilia Perez) 3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truth) 4. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) 5. Demi Moore (The Substance) ================ Best Actor 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 4. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) 5. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
Demi Moore is campaigning hard. I dont see how she doesnt win SAG. Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG. Demi can get the nom and then lose the iscar to the bafta winner
I think one major factor for Jolie …. Is that she is ANGELINA JOLIE … similar to how sometimes the Academy doesn’t care about re-awarding previous winners (and Jolie hasn’t ever won lead tbf) like for Brody getting his maybe second win … Stewart for Spencer was a harder sell because a) younger talent & b) less embraced film Portman was a stronger sell because a) previous winner but b) film was less embraced than La La Land which ultimately won best actress , but Portman was likely runner-up Jolie is a solid sell - a) known, trusted, respect actress but in b) film less likely to be embraced in other categories So whilst Madison and Gascon are in very likely BP nominees and will get nominated … I think Jolie has the career angle which feels more Judy / Tammy Faye esque to win I can’t think of any recent wins that mirror Madison (maybe Larson - last time a breakthrough newcomer won) or Gascon - what’s the precedent for them winning Jolie has more precedent examples
I think it’s gonna be between Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes, The one thing that is a bit of a caveat that maybe might go against Brody is the fact that he’d be nominated again for playing a holocaust survivor, but maybe it won’t even matter.
The only thing that gives me pause about Brody is not that he’s won before, but that he won for playing a similar character before. I think that the Oscars ultimately like novelty in their winning performances, when actors portray something they haven’t seen onscreen before, which is the reason I was doubtful about Austin Butler winning actor since Rami already won for playing a rock star, and Fraser was playing a type of character that is rare to see on screen.
I think because in The Brutalist Brody is a mature man and the situation has much different dynamics than The Pianist, which is just circumstances of pure unbeatable terror, it’s a very considerably different performance, or certainly not a repeat anyway, and there’s no reason to look at it as such.
What I'd note about THE SUBSTANCE is that there's a sizable chunk of female audience who don't normally like horror who saw the film and find themselves deeply emotionally connected with it. I'm not saying it's definitely getting in but I think it's going from "a crazy, balls-to-the-wall horror film you have to see" to "this is art about deeply personal things". The momentum is there.
Seeing Ronans' The Outrun performance it is the best I have seen so far this year. I hope she gets nominated, Winning I still have to see other performances, Amy Adams I see tomorrow night so I hope I like her performance as well.
I know they might absolutely be correct about the first three contenders in leading actor…But man, I’m a Chalamet fan and tbh I actually went “omfg, I can’t wait to see this movie!” when I saw that extended trailer. I hope he gets into the top 3 after the movie premieres 🤞
I’ve been saying it since spring, and I’m gonna keep saying it until I’m proved wrong: the film community is completely underestimating Cynthia Erivo in Wicked. Elphaba is arguably the most iconic character in musical theatre and Cynthia is one of the best performers to come from the Broadway world. Even if the movie isn’t an overall contender Cynthia should be seen as a legit force in the actress category.
even if the performance is that good (we don't know yet) the film's marketing can't catch a break and that's definitely messing its chances to get in the real conversation.
The best lead actress line up works very well bc it's a good mix. Newcomers, vets, people deserving of a nom period. The one person that I would switch out in favor of someone else is Jolie. There is something about her that's giving winner or no nom. If it's no nom.. I think Kidman could take Jolie's place
Colman Domingo I think could win. He is playing a biopic character. At the same time, I've been thinking Timmy is number 1 for a while now. This is the epitome of biopic Oscar bait. Plus, when James Mangold goes prestige, his films usually get in some categories (even Logan got Adapted Screenplay), and with A Complete Unknown being his most baity, I think that could give Timmy an edge. He could win SAG.
The gg comedy musical and critics choice will go with Madison Lead actor is Coleman vs Ralph vs Brody The indie spirits are going to be all about Anora
Genuine question, been watching the channel for years but I’m stumped most this year as to why the universe is not predicting challengers to account any noms anywhere. Am I crazy for thinking it’d be different?
It's a quality film and had it come out around now, it would probably be in the conversation. Unfortunately, people have short memories and when it comes time to vote - a movie that came out in April has much less chance of being remembered than one which came out more recently. That's probably why many are not predicting it. I still think it deserves a nomination for Editing if nothing else.
Stone and Lawrence were previous nominees before they won. Stone had been around for years and Lawrence exploded with Winter's Bone, Hunger Games and Silver Linings Playbook. Larson was in the conversation for Short Term 12 before she won for Room, and a known child/teenage actress with lots of credits under her belt. Madison doesn't have the profile those three had at the time of their wins. I'm not saying Madison winning isn't possible but she's not a known quantity.
As soon as Marianne Jean-Baptiste's name started being mentioned earlier this year, my ears perked up. She is older, widely respected and has been around awhile. Many of us still remember watching her Secrets & Lies almost 30 years ago. We know that when it comes to nominating Black women as Leading Actress- let alone seeing a Black actress win- the Academy has a bit of a problem. And those Black actresses winning Supporting Actress usually play low-income, marginally oppressed and culturally stigmatized characters. What Jean-Baptiste offers us is a role and performance that's something altogether different. .It's the kind of character we'd normally see McDormand, Streep, or Shirley MacLaine play. Plus, the reviews for Jean-Baptiste have been stellar. There'll be no complaints or backlash if she takes home The Oscar in 2025. Adrien Brody isn't winning a 2nd Oscar.
MY BEST ACTRESS 1. Mickey Madison 2. Saorise Ronan 3. Demi Moore 4. Karla Sofía Gascón 5. Angelina Jolie Honestly… I do think Mickey Madison is the undeniable frontrunner. The buzz for her performance is incredibly supportive & full of praise everywhere. 🤞Demi Moore being included in the Oscars race this year. Haven’t stopped thinking of her performance in The Substance. So freaking fearless!!! Would love if Saorise Ronan won but I still don’t think it’s her time yet. I think she will be an Oscar winner someday but not this year. MY BEST ACTOR 1. Adrien Brody 2. Ralph Fiennes 3. Colman Domingo 4. Sebastian Stan 5. Timothée Chalamet I do think this will be a race between Brody & Fiennes. I think Brody should win for his performance but the fact he already has an Oscar & Ralph doesn’t could be the thing that pushes Ralph ahead. Would be thrilled if Ralph won too because he’s a phenomenal actor & should already have an Oscar by now.
Im also here for Demi, everyone talks about this being horror body film and i went to see the movie thinking it would be like that all the time and turns out it was just a couple of scenes. Most of the film feels more like a psychological journey and Demi’s scene in the red dress in front of the mirror was the most moving thing i have seen in a very long time.
Best Actor Adrien Brody - The Brutalist Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown Daniel Craig - Queer Colman Domingo - Sing Sing Ralph Fiennes - Conclave Best Actress Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hart Truths Angelina Jolie - Maria Nicole Kidman - Babygirl Mikey Madison - Anora
I can't with Adrian Brody winning 2 Best Actor Oscars - when i.e., Al Pacino, Robert DeNiro only have 1. In the 20+ years since his win, Brody's had a lackluster career.
As a brazilian person, i'ts sooo cool hearing you talking about Fernanda Torres, who's mostly known for comedic roles on TV. Trivia: she has a Cannes prize.
My Actress Predictions: 1. Amy Adams - Nightbitch 2. Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun 3. Mikey Madison - Anora 4. Demi Moore - The Substance 5. Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez I have Amy Adams winning only because of Searchlight's track record with Actress and she is way over due.
btw not that BAFTA matters because BAFTA nominations are done by a DEI committee, but The Substance is produced by British production company Working Title, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Demi also gets in there
I haven't seen the Outrun yet and even i really wanna see Saoirse Ronan getting her first Oscar cause she's my favorite actress, Mikey Madison KILLED IT!!! in Anora.
Secrets and Lies basically didn't have a real distributor with "October Films" but that film did get multiple nods. Of course it did win the Palme D'Or but still
I think when Mikey Madison wins GG and CC, people will rally for her to win. She is lovable and her performance was extraordinary and incredibly edgy. So I think she can easily win.
John David Washington has better reviews for Piano Lesson than most of the ones listed there. I'd argue he's Top 10. Hell, I have him as my #4 above Timmy.
Just saw The Substance and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a Demi Moore Oscar nomination. I can just hear the press gallery gasp when they announce her name.
same!!
I think Demi has a great shot of getting into that #5 slot. Plus the movie has shortlisting in other categories like Screenplay, makeup, production design etc vs Hereditary and Us
@@bryanalstoncoxing I agree.
A Demi Moore nom would be incredible!! Keeping my fingers crossed 🤞
Me too
I would put her in the number 5 slot. She was once the highest paid actress in Hollywood and I think her comeback throughout the last year ( Capote: the Swans) is going to help.
if Demi Moore gets nominated, God help anyone who wants to talk to me about anything else that day.
I will be screaming in joy
the problem isnt Demi, you need a doctor
@@mykitchen701 I was referring to my delight if that happens
what are u on about?
Why has brother bro been geeking out in the thumbnails lately 💀
They’re playing the algorithm game
Bro's just gooning leave him be
Wait ur right😭
The eyes rolled back is crazy😂
Take The Substance- get Demi in Best Actress
Get Demi Moore inside! The Substance 👏👏👏
Best Actress Predictions
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
3. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
4. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
5. Demi Moore (The Substance)
Best Actor Predictions
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
4. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
The way my heart skips a beat when I see they’ve uploaded
Sad
I do think Demi Moore is very possible
I've already seen 'The Substance' for the 4th time in the theater, and I still love it. As of now, 'The Substance' is my number one favorite movie of the year, and Demi gives the best performance of the year. My fingers are still crossed for her to get that Oscar nomination.
Same! I’ve seen it 4x and the movie gets better and better each time. The best theatre experience I’ve had since Parasite. Demi completely blew me away with her fearless performance
@bryanalstoncoxing Same here, man. It's one of those movie's I couldn't get out of my head for weeks. The first time I watched it, my head spinning and I was thinking "What the fuck was that?!?!" I wasn't sure if I hated it, liked it, or loved it. Second time watching it, I'm analyzing it, and I began to really like it. The third time, I ended up loving it. The fourth time, I went because I just loved the film.
For me, it's the best theater experience since 'Once Upon a Time In Hollywood.' I kept on encouraging people to see in the theater. I already took my parents to see it. Haha!
It's just that you won't get the same experience at home watching it on TV. A film like this is meant to be watched at the theater.
Agree. Demi is phenomenal! It's a triumphant performance and comeback. I'm happy to see her back. I hope this won't be just a moment for her, I hope she'll continue to get more great material coming her way. Plus, she was already in 'Feud: Capote vs The Swans,' this film, and next month, the series 'Landman' will be released.
For now, I'm really hoping she'll get the Golden Globe and the Oscar nomination.
Demi Moore OMG The Academy HAS TO nominate her. Definitely one of the best performances of the year ❤
Demi Moore is handsdown the best of the year so far. She is electric perfection every single second on screen. Also her physical acting in prosthetics was so convincing.
If they can 'Poor Things', then maybe their selection process has broadened.
I feel like the hype for Ronan might be overstated, it seems like people like her a lot but they don't like the film a lot, so while she might have some buzz, they could just snub her in the end off the film itself.
I think this is about equally possible to her getting in
@@TheOscarExpert Yeah her name alone is strong enough for voters to see it, but I still feel like they might just be like, "well we like Blitz more, so let's just nominate her for that in Supporting, and then put in someone like Kidman, Moore, Adams, Baptiste, etc." When there are this many contenders, they might just not care about name recognition, especially if Gascon & Madison are looking like frontrunners to win. In Actor though, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone get in on name recognition alone.
@@aayushdhurka2425 bro that's actually a really good prediction!!
@@aayushdhurka2425having seen the outrun, I actually hope this happens. Best actress is much more crowded than supporting so it works out nicer
Demi Moore will not win Best actress …. BUT she will snatch a nomination for best actress at the Oscars. It will also get best makeup nomination.
I hope you're right, she freaking went for it in a way I've never seen her go before! It was a surprise when Weaver got nominated for Aliens, and Burstyn for Exorcist was really out of the ordinary in the early 70's, so it's not out of the question historically...it's just the body gore that could have voters over 50 walking out of the screening or turning off the dvd. But honestly, in the picture, by that point, she's already given her performance.
I think Demi Moore might be a lock for nomination just for her star power. I've read her wiki recently and her biggest award "success" is with Golden Raspberries, which is ridiculous. And unfair. She's a superstar. You ask my mother, who's 76 and lived in Ukraine her whole life, and she'll know who Demi Moore is, and not just know, but consider her one of the top actresses in America. Now she's a lead in a movie with a considerable buzz in a weak scattered year, so yeah... I'd say she's getting nominated. And I don't even like The Substance, it's so on the nose. But Demi is good there and so so overdue for at least a nomination. It's probably going to happen
Being in the nose was the POINT.. SO THAT people can't miss the massage..
Sorry to tell you, Hard Truths is an incomplete film , with incomplete story and incomplete character development. Marianne Jean- Baptise isn't getting in. Even Amy Adams and Tilda Swinton have more chance.
Don't underestimate Angelina, i've heard that her performance is even better than portman or stewart !
they’ve seen the film
By my count there's been 31 nominations for a horror performance, and 6 wins:
1. 1931/32: Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Lead, *Won*)
2. 1945: Angela Lansbury (The Picture of Dorian Gray, Supporting)
3. 1946: Ethel Barrymore (The Spiral Staircase, Supporting)
4. 1956: Nancy Kelly (The Bad Seed, Lead)
5. 1956: Eileen Heckart (The Bad Seed, Supporting)
6. 1956: Patty McCormack (The Bad Seed, Supporting)
7. 1960: Janet Leigh (Psycho, Supporting)
8. 1962: Bette Davis (What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?, Lead)
9. 1962: Victor Buono (What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?, Supporting)
10. 1964: Agnes Moorehead (Hush…Hush, Sweet Charlotte, Supporting)
11. 1965: Samantha Eggar (The Collector, Lead)
12. 1967: Audrey Hepburn (Wait until Dark, Lead)
13. 1968: Ruth Gordon (Rosemary’s Baby, Supporting, *Won*)
14. 1973: Ellen Burstyn (The Exorcist, Lead)
15. 1973: Jason Miller (The Exorcist, Supporting)
16. 1973: Linda Blair (The Exorcist, Supporting)
17. 1976: Sissy Spacek (Carrie, Lead)
18. 1976: Piper Laurie (Carrie, Supporting)
19. 1986: Sigourney Weaver (Aliens, Lead)
20. 1987: Glenn Close (Fatal Attraction, Lead)
21. 1987: Anne Archer (Fatal Attraction, Supporting)
22. 1990: Kathy Bates (Misery, Lead, *Won*)
23. 1991: Anthony Hopkins (The Silence of the Lambs, Lead, *Won*)
24. 1991: Jodie Foster (The Silence of the Lambs, Lead, *Won*)
25. 1991: Robert De Niro (Cape Fear, Lead)
26. 1991: Juliette Lewis (Cape Fear, Supporting)
27. 1999: Haley Joel Osment (The Sixth Sense, Supporting)
28. 1999: Toni Collette (The Sixth Sense, Supporting)
29. 2007: Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Lead)
30. 2010: Natalie Portman (Black Swan, Lead, *Won*)
31. 2017: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out, Lead)
Did I miss any? What were the most egregious snubs of performances in this genre? I'd say maybe Anthony Perkins in Psycho, Toni Collette in Hereditary, Isabelle Adjani in Possession, Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, Lupita Nyong'o in Us, Christian Bale in American Psycho, Shelley Duvall and Jack Nicholson in The Shining, Robert Mitchum in The Night of the Hunter, and Mia Goth in Pearl.
Bette Davis - baby Jane
Willam Dafoe - shadow of the vampire (maybe)
I don’t know if Javier bardem counts in no county.
Misery, Silence of the Lambs, Black Swan and Get Out are different types of Horror, I'd consider them more thrillers tbh. I think if the Substance didn't go as hard on the "Body Horror" stuff towards the end Demi Moore would've been a lock and Best Picture would've been very likely too.
@@MrFraserpoorman1 Thanks! I've added Bette Davis.
@777L777E777 I don't have trouble considering any of those as horror, but I do personally think of What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? and Hush...Hush, Sweet Charlotte as just thrillers, not horror. But Wikipedia calls them horror, so I included them anyway.
An interesting corollary: 6 wins and 31 noms is almost exactly a 1:5 ratio, precisely what we would expect (ceteris paribus) in a contest with 5 competitors. So while there may be a genre bias at the nomination stage, there doesn't seem to be one at the voting stage: horror performances are just as likely to win as the other nominees.
I think Ralph Fiennes or Adrien Brody is your winner for Lead Actor. I do think that Fiennes is being underestimated both due to overdue narrative and also since CONCLAVE is an Adapted Screenplay frontrunner. Don’t forget THE FATHER also won here.
I definitely wouldn’t compare the father to conclave. First, sing sing could win adapted. Second, Hopkins was phenomenal and showy
@@friendlypup5650 The point in bringing up CONCLAVE/THE FATHER comparison was to show the parallels in the potential paths.
Speaking of which, one interesting observation: Since 2007, all except 2 of the Best Actor Oscar winning films won at least 2 Oscars (Actor + one other category at the bare minimum), and the only actors to win as the sole representative of their films since 2007 are Eddie Redmayne and Will Smith. THE BRUTALIST absolutely needs to win at least one more category in order for Brody to have a chance, and CONCLAVE being a potential favorite in Adapted gives Ralph Fiennes a path to victory.
The Brutalist is highly competitive in cinematography, score, editing, original screenplay. Felicity Jones is a supporting actress contender too.
I like your tie dye shirt and your overall look here guys. It is so nice to share in your journey as film critics and Oscar experts over the years.
Gentlemen, you need to check out the most recent full trailer for A Complete Unknown. Wow, Chalamet is DEFINITELY a contender!!!
I think Kidman is definitely top 5 right now.
not a lock since her film probably won't be contender in other categories.
Even though there are many heavyweight actors in Best Actor, I feel like this year's race is very boring. Best Actress race on the other hand, is very interesting.
Jolie may have a Globe locked now that Gascón and Madison are officially in Comedy/Musical.
was that not always confirmed? anora's clearly a comedy and emilia perez is clearly a musical, right? lol
@@BROJANGSTER There was some discussion about it, I think. Deadline officially “confirmed” it today.
@@sand4273 okie dokie, toady
I could see her winning SAG to tbh. They love rewarding veterans.
Some of you will hype up Anora like it's the best film made, but thinking Angelina doesn't have chance is crazy. She won 25 years ago and this will be comeback role for her more than Demi Moore, also
If you don't know who Maria Callas was and just don't like Opera, doesn't mean you can't enjoy the film. We get it that Princess Diana is more famous and more likely to be liked by younger viewers but Angelina had brilliant performance and would love her to win and prove some of you wrong.
Is it in theaters or Netflix
@@davidmckesey7119 in the US it will be released in theaters for two weeks and in December on Netflix, ww it is theatrical only.
i appreciate that you mention a 'dislike' for opera or 'unknowing' of callas..i think that's what turned off some viewers...
@@davidmckesey7119 first two weeks in theaters and then on Netflix
@@rocky-o I get that not everyone loves Opera but I don't like when people are not objective, just because it has a hype, they have to like, even though they don't understand anything and I don't like that.
Demi Moore for the Substance, pls let it happen Oscar Gods !!!
Actress: Madison, Jolie, Gascon, Kidman, Torres
Actor: Brody, Domingo, Fiennes, Chalament, Stan (Apprentice)
No way stan
@@davidmckesey7119 It's hard to believe that A24 managed to get three movies with nominations for Best Actor at the same time. Besides, I'd bet on Stan, who plays big-name roles, more than Craig, who's in artsy films. The competition this year is really weak. If "All of Us are Strangers" had been released this year instead of last, it might have made for the most undisputed five nominees.
Guyz, saw Hard Truths at London Film Festival. The film was rejected by Venice and I can see why. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is no way getting a nod.
Thank you! Saw it at Tiff and thought the same.
Don't underestimate Maria for Best actress, the golden globes nominated Angelina Jolie for the tourist Demi Moore for the substance could surprise for Best actress. sag did nominate aj for a mighty heart, she could wins sag.
Darlings, Helen and I think Demi is getting in.
Bleecker street got viggo mortensen for Captain Fantastic and Bryan Cranston for Trumbo nominated
Demi is getting nominated!!!!! 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Demi Moore is getting nominated and will get a HUGE round of applause on the night - RESPECT! She has delivered the most talked about scene in one of the most talked about films of the year. I cannot imagine she will be left out of the running and she will win LAFC, for sure, and get a CC & GG nom.
Angelina Jolie will likely get snubbed by BAFTA. The British are very funny about Maria Callas and were not fans of the Terrence McNally play, Master Class, when it had a short run in the West End. The reviews were like, "I thought this was supposed to be about Maria Callas...?" and "Who is this woman strutting upon the stage? She is amusing but she's not Maria Callas." So unless this is deeply, incredibly faithful to Callas, they will not be impressed.
If Barbara Broccoli had produced Queer then Craig would at least get a BAFTA nomination. Alas, she did not. I don't think BAFTA or the Academy for that matter is going to go for the title. Queer has very little international distribution as of yet - again, probably impossible to market in a lot of countries. One can only imagine the amount of arm-twisting CAA had to do to get A24 to pick up for U.S. distribution just days before Venice - I'm sure the terms are very favourable to A24 - because it was approaching a Megalopolis situation to have a $50M film premiere without any distribution. But what can A24 do to help Craig when they've also got The Brutalist and Sing Sing in serious competition in Best Actor?? Academy members only get one vote. Queer is likely to go down as a big swing and a miss. That leaves the door open for another studio to get in, most likely Mescal - and the narrative is, "What a star! Made the transition from indie fav to big-time studio filmmaking!" In a weak and yet somehow already decisive year (with Brody), that'll do. Chalamet will be nominated just to try and boost the rating for the evening and to generations of young filimgoers, he will forever be "Bob Dylan" to them. lol
I am not convinced about Mikey Madison. It is very difficult for an unknown, newcomer to win Best Actress.
Brie Larson did it and Room wasn't even that big of a contender for Best Picture
She was in once upon Hollywood
@@davidmckesey7119 No one remembers her from that movie.
But she was in it, a movie from five years ago. If she’s still a newcomer despite the talent which apparently is evident in Anora, that’s kind of the industry’s fault. I still haven’t seen either Anora or The Substance, but Margaret Qualley broke out from that film, and in my opinion is a bland performer. Madison in that film actually impressed me a lot with her limited screentime, also in the film Nostalgia.
@777L777E777 Brie had short term 12 that made a lot of noise with critics.
My Best Actress Predictions
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Emilia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truth)
4. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
5. Demi Moore (The Substance)
================
Best Actor
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
4. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
5. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
Demi Moore is campaigning hard. I dont see how she doesnt win SAG. Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG. Demi can get the nom and then lose the iscar to the bafta winner
Where is she campaigning?
I think one major factor for Jolie …. Is that she is ANGELINA JOLIE … similar to how sometimes the Academy doesn’t care about re-awarding previous winners (and Jolie hasn’t ever won lead tbf) like for Brody getting his maybe second win …
Stewart for Spencer was a harder sell because a) younger talent & b) less embraced film
Portman was a stronger sell because a) previous winner but b) film was less embraced than La La Land which ultimately won best actress , but Portman was likely runner-up
Jolie is a solid sell - a) known, trusted, respect actress but in b) film less likely to be embraced in other categories
So whilst Madison and Gascon are in very likely BP nominees and will get nominated … I think Jolie has the career angle which feels more Judy / Tammy Faye esque to win
I can’t think of any recent wins that mirror Madison (maybe Larson - last time a breakthrough newcomer won) or Gascon - what’s the precedent for them winning
Jolie has more precedent examples
I think Torres will get a bunch of critics awards and will also get in to the Globes (Drama), the BAFTAs, and finally the Oscars.
I think Demi Moore will get in
I think it’s gonna be between Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes, The one thing that is a bit of a caveat that maybe might go against Brody is the fact that he’d be nominated again for playing a holocaust survivor, but maybe it won’t even matter.
Ralph please! =)
Adrien Brody winning a 2nd. Best Actor would be kinda wild.
@@rodycaz8984before Ralph is wild
You know what it seems like the general public wants Demi in. I think she will get in. Also, she may win.
so excited to see fernanda torres in this conversation, she's amazing
The oscar is for Demi Moore remembar that
😮
The only thing that gives me pause about Brody is not that he’s won before, but that he won for playing a similar character before. I think that the Oscars ultimately like novelty in their winning performances, when actors portray something they haven’t seen onscreen before, which is the reason I was doubtful about Austin Butler winning actor since Rami already won for playing a rock star, and Fraser was playing a type of character that is rare to see on screen.
I think because in The Brutalist Brody is a mature man and the situation has much different dynamics than The Pianist, which is just circumstances of pure unbeatable terror, it’s a very considerably different performance, or certainly not a repeat anyway, and there’s no reason to look at it as such.
i'm thinking it'll be between demi and angelina...(tilda would be great as well)...
What I'd note about THE SUBSTANCE is that there's a sizable chunk of female audience who don't normally like horror who saw the film and find themselves deeply emotionally connected with it.
I'm not saying it's definitely getting in but I think it's going from "a crazy, balls-to-the-wall horror film you have to see" to "this is art about deeply personal things". The momentum is there.
Oscar Experts shirts have been fire lately 👕
In film class and watching this 🔥
I’m keeping my fingers crossed by Fernanda Torres nomination 🤞🏼. Incredible actress!
I also think she can do it, but these two guys are stupid and didn't understand the film, I bet if it was a film made in the USA they would love it
Seeing Ronans' The Outrun performance it is the best I have seen so far this year. I hope she gets nominated, Winning I still have to see other performances, Amy Adams I see tomorrow night so I hope I like her performance as well.
I know they might absolutely be correct about the first three contenders in leading actor…But man, I’m a Chalamet fan and tbh I actually went “omfg, I can’t wait to see this movie!” when I saw that extended trailer. I hope he gets into the top 3 after the movie premieres 🤞
I’ve been saying it since spring, and I’m gonna keep saying it until I’m proved wrong: the film community is completely underestimating Cynthia Erivo in Wicked. Elphaba is arguably the most iconic character in musical theatre and Cynthia is one of the best performers to come from the Broadway world. Even if the movie isn’t an overall contender Cynthia should be seen as a legit force in the actress category.
even if the performance is that good (we don't know yet) the film's marketing can't catch a break and that's definitely messing its chances to get in the real conversation.
Cynthia is a force and will get that nomination.
I don't know shes kinda self sabotaging right now.
🤔
The way you guys talk about Brody's performance gives me Daniel Day-Lewis TWBB vibes
It seems like you guys don’t like Nicole Kidman
Even lowered review Angelina jolie and saoirse Ronan is in top 5🤮🤮🤮🤮
The best lead actress line up works very well bc it's a good mix. Newcomers, vets, people deserving of a nom period. The one person that I would switch out in favor of someone else is Jolie. There is something about her that's giving winner or no nom. If it's no nom.. I think Kidman could take Jolie's place
The best narrative will win this year
Colman Domingo I think could win. He is playing a biopic character. At the same time, I've been thinking Timmy is number 1 for a while now. This is the epitome of biopic Oscar bait. Plus, when James Mangold goes prestige, his films usually get in some categories (even Logan got Adapted Screenplay), and with A Complete Unknown being his most baity, I think that could give Timmy an edge. He could win SAG.
Demi Moore feels like this years Michelle Yeoh of something that should happen, and hopefully will
Angelina Jolie for the win
The gg comedy musical and critics choice will go with Madison
Lead actor is Coleman vs Ralph vs Brody
The indie spirits are going to be all about Anora
Kinds of Kindness is absolutely Jesse's best performance, Cole.
Genuine question, been watching the channel for years but I’m stumped most this year as to why the universe is not predicting challengers to account any noms anywhere. Am I crazy for thinking it’d be different?
It's a quality film and had it come out around now, it would probably be in the conversation. Unfortunately, people have short memories and when it comes time to vote - a movie that came out in April has much less chance of being remembered than one which came out more recently. That's probably why many are not predicting it. I still think it deserves a nomination for Editing if nothing else.
Amazon making no campaign efforts for that film obviously. They focus on Nickle Boys only.
The academy loves fresh faces
Brie larson
Emma stone
Jennifer Lawrence
The academy loves giving best actress to young upcoming actresses
Lawrence and Stone had previously nominations and Larson had Short Term 12
Stone and Lawrence were previous nominees before they won. Stone had been around for years and Lawrence exploded with Winter's Bone, Hunger Games and Silver Linings Playbook. Larson was in the conversation for Short Term 12 before she won for Room, and a known child/teenage actress with lots of credits under her belt. Madison doesn't have the profile those three had at the time of their wins. I'm not saying Madison winning isn't possible but she's not a known quantity.
Andre holland in exhibiting forgiveness is my wild card
As soon as Marianne Jean-Baptiste's name started being mentioned earlier this year, my ears perked up. She is older, widely respected and has been around awhile. Many of us still remember watching her Secrets & Lies almost 30 years ago. We know that when it comes to nominating Black women as Leading Actress- let alone seeing a Black actress win- the Academy has a bit of a problem. And those Black actresses winning Supporting Actress usually play low-income, marginally oppressed and culturally stigmatized characters. What Jean-Baptiste offers us is a role and performance that's something altogether different. .It's the kind of character we'd normally see McDormand, Streep, or Shirley MacLaine play. Plus, the reviews for Jean-Baptiste have been stellar. There'll be no complaints or backlash if she takes home The Oscar in 2025.
Adrien Brody isn't winning a 2nd Oscar.
My objective list for October:
1. Mikey Madison
2. Angelina Jolie
3. Karla Sofia Gascon
4. Demi Moore
5. Nicole Kidman
It's about time for Demi Moore to get an Oscar nomination.
MY BEST ACTRESS
1. Mickey Madison
2. Saorise Ronan
3. Demi Moore
4. Karla Sofía Gascón
5. Angelina Jolie
Honestly… I do think Mickey Madison is the undeniable frontrunner. The buzz for her performance is incredibly supportive & full of praise everywhere.
🤞Demi Moore being included in the Oscars race this year. Haven’t stopped thinking of her performance in The Substance. So freaking fearless!!!
Would love if Saorise Ronan won but I still don’t think it’s her time yet. I think she will be an Oscar winner someday but not this year.
MY BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody
2. Ralph Fiennes
3. Colman Domingo
4. Sebastian Stan
5. Timothée Chalamet
I do think this will be a race between Brody & Fiennes. I think Brody should win for his performance but the fact he already has an Oscar & Ralph doesn’t could be the thing that pushes Ralph ahead. Would be thrilled if Ralph won too because he’s a phenomenal actor & should already have an Oscar by now.
Why do you guys sound so angry about Jolie?
Part of the substance army ( in a non toxic way ) 😈
But seriously though, hope Moore gets that nom, we need horror to be taken seriously for awards
Im also here for Demi, everyone talks about this being horror body film and i went to see the movie thinking it would be like that all the time and turns out it was just a couple of scenes. Most of the film feels more like a psychological journey and Demi’s scene in the red dress in front of the mirror was the most moving thing i have seen in a very long time.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig - Queer
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Best Actress
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hart Truths
Angelina Jolie - Maria
Nicole Kidman - Babygirl
Mikey Madison - Anora
I can't with Adrian Brody winning 2 Best Actor Oscars - when i.e., Al Pacino, Robert DeNiro only have 1. In the 20+ years since his win, Brody's had a lackluster career.
You saw Maria and haven’t posted a review??
I’ve seen the movie. Angelina Jolie is winning
As a brazilian person, i'ts sooo cool hearing you talking about Fernanda Torres, who's mostly known for comedic roles on TV. Trivia: she has a Cannes prize.
Once voters see Babygirl, they will put Nicole Kidman in there. That role is so perfect for her and she plays it excellently.
My prediction
Mikey madison
Saoirse ronan
Fernanda torres
Marianne jean baptise
Demi moore
Literally everybody predicting a Nicole kidman nomination and these two ‘experts’ only have her at 8. Alright
my top 5 are 1. Saoirse Ronan 2. Demi Moore 3. Angelina Jolie 4. Amy Adams 5. Nicole Kidman
Jesse eisenberg will get a screenplay nomination, not an acting nomination
My Actress Predictions:
1. Amy Adams - Nightbitch
2. Saoirse Ronan - The Outrun
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Demi Moore - The Substance
5. Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
I have Amy Adams winning only because of Searchlight's track record with Actress and she is way over due.
btw not that BAFTA matters because BAFTA nominations are done by a DEI committee, but The Substance is produced by British production company Working Title, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Demi also gets in there
Brody will win the majority of Critics prizes but I could see Stan being cited for both performances.
I’ve conceded and put Mikey Madison number 1, it makes a lot of sense
Crossing fingers do Angelina Jolie and Demi Moore
I haven't seen the Outrun yet and even i really wanna see Saoirse Ronan getting her first Oscar cause she's my favorite actress, Mikey Madison KILLED IT!!! in Anora.
Secrets and Lies basically didn't have a real distributor with "October Films" but that film did get multiple nods. Of course it did win the Palme D'Or but still
Let’s go, Brody!
Emma Stone is more beloved than Adrien Brody though, who has some controversies. Don't think Brody is easily getting the win.
What controversies?
😮
@@pb.j.1753 The Halle Berry kiss and his SNL skit, just to name a few
Demi Moore and Amy Adams!!!!! LETS GO!!!!!
Jude Law in The Order for actor!! working on this and definitely launching an awards campaign
I think when Mikey Madison wins GG and CC, people will rally for her to win. She is lovable and her performance was extraordinary and incredibly edgy. So I think she can easily win.
John David Washington has better reviews for Piano Lesson than most of the ones listed there. I'd argue he's Top 10. Hell, I have him as my #4 above Timmy.
If THE GREAT LILIAN HALL had a later release date in the year I could have seen some momentum behind that nomination
???
That’s an HBO TV film. It‘s for Emmys, not Oscars.
Bleecker Street actually scored a lead actor nomination for Captain Fantastic!
With you on Jean-Baptiste. Don't see a better option, and it's compelling as hell specifically for the Academy.
You have Sissy Spacek in Carrie, and Natalie Portman in Black Swan nominated and won.
If Toni Collette couldn’t DOMINATE awards season and get in at the Oscars. I don’t see it for Demi unless the critics PUSH THE HELL OUT of this movie.
There is so much passion for The Substance - will it be enough? I am not so sure. I hope I am wrong.
Is it just an internet thing?
@@mr29 90% of oscar contenders are just an internet thing.