Tesla (and Elon) doesn't wait for someone else to push a tech, even less so if that tech is a critical component of their mission. They built their own goddam rockets from scratch. They will go in the pit for that lithium, no question in my head about it. Such a ruthless gang of dedicated engineers. Mad respect. As of you Jordan, as usual, awesome high quality work, it's much appreciated. Keep up the good work !
Finally, someone starts shedding light on how Tesla can avoid battery materials shortages in the coming years. I hear all Tesla UA-camrs talking about million of Tesla cars produced in the near future but very few consider the material shortage that is approaching.
The 'material' shortage issue is being tackled in a completely different fashion. In about 10 years time (when old EVs will start getting scrapped) the 'ore' that they'll 'mine' for raw materials will be used battery packs!
Yeah, alot of their projections seem based on the falling cost of batteries, but never understood why the price of batteries keeps going down while no one has enough batteries.
@@Not_An_Alien price of batteries is going down because of design improvements. As the market for batteries grows exponentially, more and more research money goes into the space in order to make better &cheaper batteries (so the company with a better design can take a bigger share of the exponentially growing market!)
I think you points at 10:50 and 12:00 are very key to Teslas motivation towards mining. A lot of mining companies produce multiple commodities which might include Nickel, Lithium and Coal. So supplying to a company like Tesla which threatens part of their business might cause tougher negotiations in the future. Makes sense to diversify into mining and not be held to ransom later.
I think Tesla getting into extraction is much more about securing supply than saving money. Getting the spice from clay may cost more than current market prices but will still be economical when lithium prices rise over the next few years and Tesla is playing the long game.
Andrew if you look at the initial results from a company like Cypress Development, the costs of using this type of extraction are not much more then if you used sulphuric acid. Also depends in the overburden. It does not cost more than current prices. $3600 extraction cost vs current $15000 market price. Quite a nice margin!
How much of a risk is there that the OTHER e-vehicle manufacturers could lock up much of the Lithium supply with long-term contracts, squeezing Telsa even more?
And there is a company close to their NV factory which is currently setting up a pilot program to test a sulphur-free saline extraction. The answer is very clear...
I'm curious what will happen with clay. Since I'm living in Europe not very far from Berlin, having a huge battery factory over there raises an interesting question: where the resources would come from?
Your videos are always well researched and incredibly informative! One part of your video made me want to go work for Tesla. (Although I'm more qualified for SpaceX).
Currently, there is a process to extract lithium from seawater except that the lithium concentration in seawater is very small. Mixing saltwater with the clay deposits will give you a solution with a much higher concentration of lithium in it. The only question I had after battery day was how he was going to avoid leaving tons of salt behind in the process.
No doubt, Lithium will be explosive in demand in just a few years (along with the cost!) ..It’s great to see Tesla’s plan to control this before the market price is soaring even higher than it is today, it’s looking like it will be the key factor for all BEV manufacturers going forward..⚡️🔋
Ok, well I manually typed it and accessed it. Thanks. You should put some of those microscopic pics you have in videos on T's and the such... We nerds love that stuff... Great conversation starter...
Gali of Hyperchange spoke about the in-person tour of the battery pilot plant that was conducted on battery day. He said he did not understand all the technical stuff, but, they were shown the lithium extraction process working as well as the raw nickel process...
2:19 Taking over a supplier ‘because they make a profit’ would only make sense of you would make (accept) no or less profit for the investment made. That’s unlikely imo. There needs to be other benefits like less dependency and tighter integration as described in the video.
It's awesome to hear about increased production and cheaper Nickel based batteries for better electric cars, but it's the LFP one's that have me most excited. Iron is incredibly cheap, the infrastructure is already massive, and the high energy density is not as necessary for renewable grid storage.
Truth be known, I love the battery vids more than the Li extraction stuff. But the extraction has to be designed to secure vast supplies at relatively fixed cost. As you say, it's pretty much inconceivable that Tesla hasn't already worked out the magic to get the Li out of clay. I'd be thinking about fine maceration with nitric acid, but I'm not a chemist or raw materials expert... Evidently, doing it with NaCl sounds a lot more environmentally sound. I assume that must used some form of precipitation process. That may involve hydrochloric acid.
I wonder what strategy Tesla will take in Europe. Given that there is one of the largest lithium deposits in the world (Cinovec), whether it will still be more advantageous to import raw material from the USA, or in some way will be involved in mining in EUROPE.
EU is pushing local sourcing of raw materials (as is the US), so I expect there will be local mines partnering with EU companies and likely with Tesla as well. Watching Jordan's other videos on the subject, I expect European Metals to be a major player in that space.
Hi, do you think it would be viable to have a mixed energy storage approach where you would have battery for shorter, more permanent range and super capacitors that you could charge up very quickly just before going for a road trip and during the trip? You are going to use up the charge you gained at the charging station almost immedialtey either way so shorter energy storage time should not be a problem.
Always thought capacitors were a good way to handle the short term "back-and-forth" of charge, with higher efficiency AND less battery cycling. More range, longer battery life. But after they bought Maxwell, nothing happened with that and I wonder why.
@@thelimitingfactor Thx for the answer. They already use the SC in other places so they didn't think it would overcomplicate their design and the potential utility would be huge. You could charge your car at the maximum charging speed and not degrade the battery at the same time. You could also have a buffer that could take a certain part of the charged energy and then charge the car on the move minimizing your time at the charging station. I read on the topic some more and it turns out they don't use it, because (despite of what I wrote earlier, this was my mistake) they are not lighter than batteries, indeed, they are much heavier. They also have some other problems, but the basic reason behind it is that they are heavy. Very heavy.
Plus when dojo kicks off with its deep learning capability, they will leverage that to help with searching for better processes to do with the hole (🥃) lithium process as well, not to mention simulation and different cathode and anode material. Maybe even solid-state research with dojo. Scotty ah need more powa. Ah caany give her anymore she's gonna blow
I know that water is a scarcity in the high desert. I can picture copious amounts of pumped ground water driving down the local water table. A liability in Bolivia as well btw. I am curious to know how they plan to address that. Saturating tons of ore with millions of gallons sea water and replacing it back in the mine sounds like a problem come to think of it. Maybe just create structures, residences and infrastructure from the tailings. I hope I do not come across as dismissive. I am just looking for long term solutions.
I still remember all the FUD that legacy auto makers could/would build millions of EVs EASILY and put fledgling Tesla out of business. Few people understood that Tesla had a HUGE advantage of starting with a clean sheet and no worries about owning a bunch of old stuff required to build ICE vehicles. THE SAME IS TRUE for lithium production and everything else Elon does. Start from scratch and do it the most efficient and ecology friendly way possible. Elon does not have past capital investments in old technology worth billions of dollars that he now must get rid of.
Side note. I know silicon results in very real expansion problems. But are these "problems" surmountable, and will silicon one day be a disrupter itself? Where can I learn more about answers to these questions? Thanks.
ua-cam.com/video/jOiKzWOZzhE/v-deo.html This may really peak your interest. May be entering new era of chemical performance enhancement. Lay person, but it sounds very powerful.
Wow, nice smart video! Keep em coming! Vertical integration; The only thing better is a good friend that's more capable, with a similar goal. Maybe there's a better way to pay for cobalt that doesn't involve money or require child slavery.
Lithium extracted from lithium clay + salt sounds simple - it probably is. The issue (in Nevada) is that the process likely requires a lot of water. So, if there are no groundwater resources at the mine site, Tesla will have to truck water to the mine, or the mined clay to a water source. Narrow your search of clay projects in Nevada to those that are close to exploitable groundwater. Similarly, in Nevada are there any salt deposits that could be mined? The trifecta of lithium clay deposits, water, and salt might indicate where Tesla's attention is focused.
Mining is not locked into 'existing flowsheets' the optimal process is designed for each deposit ... Every deposit is different. 'existing flowsheets' simply represent well proven general systems from the last century of advancement of mining and metallurgy. The real message you need to hear from large mine developers is the fact that you can never just go out and mine. You can stake a claim almost anywhere, that doesn't mean the resource exists. They will need to do extensive geological exploration work - potentially taking years, to actually prove the resource exists, and to delineate ore zones that can be economically mined. They will need to do environmental baseline studies, wild life surveys, archeological surveys. Acid mine drainage and metal leaching studies. Ground water / hydrological studies. Geotechnical studies - how to mine the deposit safely while minimizing the mining of waste material. They'll need to do pre-feasibility studies, feasibility studies. They will need a mine-closure and reclamation plan... you can't just take out the lithium and put the clay back and walk away as Elon said. They will have to battle multiple tiers of regulators and stakeholders - from groups that simply hate all mining, to groups with other types of land-use rights on the same ground, to first nations people. And there better not be an endangered critter that only lives in that area or a really sacred first nations site. At least getting financing to build and operate a mine won't be a problem for Tesla. I think they will be really fortunate if they are mining in 10 years. 5 years? really doubtful. Most large mines in north america ... not trying brand new process technologies ... take DECADES to go from advanced prospects to production. And right now all we know is they have mining claims of unknown quality.
Preachin' to the choir. I just have a limit of how much I can fit in each video. This video was primarily meant to counter the FUD, rather than explore mine lifecycles - which will take several videos
@@thelimitingfactor yup don't mind me, your videos are awesome. And honestly if anyone can find the right people to best navigate that maze I'm sure it's Tesla. But I think a lot of people don't realize just how optimized mining already is or how long the path to production can be.
I'm guessing that for the near term, they will probably mine nickel from the sea floor. Once the infrastructure is in place in space, then they will have pretty much unlimited metals...including gold and other precious metals...
Lithium - Going back to battery day, we had all these existing pundits saying water clay and salt was not possible. Now I would trust elon if he said this is is what they were going to do, but I wondered. Thinking about it though. Litithium is in sea water, how could it possibly get there? Salt and water, it just has to be possible. Typical Elon, told us the simple part but did not mention anything about how they seperate the lithium, while reusing the salt and warer.
After watching a video on Bolivian lithium production through brine evaporation, then saw the battery day picture of a desert full of lithium clay - I asked myself: "where's the water going to come from?"
Elon thinks like me, when I ran my business. Mind you, he thinks a lot better 😀 I’ll bet Elon and his lieutenants have read Science Fiction; Heinlein, Herbert, et al
Don't forget lower grade mineral resource and upfront capital expenditure to develop the mine. Your lithium cost is only production cost and does not include the capex. Developing a mine, the size required for Tesla, would cost billions. You have to capitalize that. As someone who works in mining, I would say you have no clue what motivates the mining industry. If a new process was developed, they would jump all over it. That is not the issue. I am not saying Tesla has not developed a process, they may have. But the mining industry would not question this. I believe Tesla could run a mine. But the same mine would not be profitable to a mining company, but to tesla it is because if feeds the machine. You also need to consider the environmental and regulatory issues. Permitting an open pit mine takes 5 to 10 years typically. How will they fast track that? The govt moves at their own pace, not Tesla's.
1) I keep these videos focused rather than wide ranging. Good points, but some of them for other videos. I clearly said at the beginning of the video that the purpose was to provide balance against the FUD. It wasn't too steel man the mining industry, it was too steel man Tesla. 2) Try arguing the point, rather than the man. It makes you sound butt hurt and defensive. 3) I didn't say they couldn't develop something like this, I said it's possible that Tesla could develop it faster. I also didn't say that the mining industry wouldn't pursue something like this, they clearly are and have been. However, they aren't as motivated as Tesla. If they were, we wouldn't be expecting a massive material shortfall in the next 1-3 years. 4) Preaching to the choir. Vertical integration may be worth Tesla's time, it may not. That's why I say at the end of the next video I give it a 70% chance. 5) Yup, I considered them, and it's a topic for another video. What if it becomes a national strategic priority? It's happening in other countries.
@@thelimitingfactor Sorry if I sounded snarky, was not intended as such. I have been in mining for 30 years and it sometimes frustrates me when I see people stating opinions about the industry when they really don't have a deep understanding of what it is about. Cheers!
Are you referring to the ambri liquid metal battery? It's not suitable for use in vehicles, and it doesn't use lithium, so no reason to mention it in this video.
If I hire someone else to do them, it costs more than I make off the videos. If I make them, it takes as long as the video itself. I may be a year before I'm decent.
Tesla will be affected by the lithium shortage no matter how fast they manage to produce anything themselves unless they have big supply deals, unknown to the public, at fixed prices to cover their entire demand, which is unlikely. Mining something on their own by 2025 would already be fast. I don't see how Tesla can earn a significant net margin, when raw materials that it has to buy get much more expensive. It is not just lithium. UBS wrote "Industry feedback tells us that the most we could expect in recycled lithium by 2030e is ~80kt LCE” That is a small amount compared to how big global demand will grow.
This is my favorite one in a while. I actually feel like I managed to get 80% of it on the first pass. Fantastic work good sir!
Fantastic information. Definitely will support your efforts at educating us. Thank you so much
Tesla (and Elon) doesn't wait for someone else to push a tech, even less so if that tech is a critical component of their mission. They built their own goddam rockets from scratch. They will go in the pit for that lithium, no question in my head about it. Such a ruthless gang of dedicated engineers. Mad respect. As of you Jordan, as usual, awesome high quality work, it's much appreciated. Keep up the good work !
Finally, someone starts shedding light on how Tesla can avoid battery materials shortages in the coming years. I hear all Tesla UA-camrs talking about million of Tesla cars produced in the near future but very few consider the material shortage that is approaching.
The 'material' shortage issue is being tackled in a completely different fashion. In about 10 years time (when old EVs will start getting scrapped) the 'ore' that they'll 'mine' for raw materials will be used battery packs!
Yeah, alot of their projections seem based on the falling cost of batteries, but never understood why the price of batteries keeps going down while no one has enough batteries.
@@Not_An_Alien price of batteries is going down because of design improvements. As the market for batteries grows exponentially, more and more research money goes into the space in order to make better &cheaper batteries (so the company with a better design can take a bigger share of the exponentially growing market!)
@@omnicurious2949 Also, don't forget about Wright's Law!
@@mahhe9435 Wright's law is the consequence of the stuff I mentioned earlier.
Nice to see Ryan Melsert and ABML getting a shout out, very exciting company
Agreed. They will be a leader in the Battery Metal Supply chain in the future.
The🔋Spice🔋must flow. AHHH, I'm dead! Thanks so much for the shout out Jordan!
:D
This is yet another excellent, informative video. You spoil us, Jordan.
This is a very high quality video. Maybe one of the best you have made use of your knowledge, detective skills and a good nose for what is going on.
Well done Gordon
I love getting early access to these videos. Gives me a little jump on my investment strategies.
I think you points at 10:50 and 12:00 are very key to Teslas motivation towards mining. A lot of mining companies produce multiple commodities which might include Nickel, Lithium and Coal. So supplying to a company like Tesla which threatens part of their business might cause tougher negotiations in the future. Makes sense to diversify into mining and not be held to ransom later.
Impressive and level headed analysis of the most crucial component for a sustainable future, thank you
Yes. The spice must flow.
Always look forward to these. Great job as usual!
"Either way, it probably chaps Elon's ass". Pure gold!
Thus spake the Professor.
Seriously, your videos help clarify so many things. Thanks for doing this Jordan!
I think Tesla getting into extraction is much more about securing supply than saving money. Getting the spice from clay may cost more than current market prices but will still be economical when lithium prices rise over the next few years and Tesla is playing the long game.
Exactly! A trillion dollar business cannot be at the mercy of a handful of Lithium mining companies that are 1/1000th the value of Tesla.
Andrew if you look at the initial results from a company like Cypress Development, the costs of using this type of extraction are not much more then if you used sulphuric acid. Also depends in the overburden. It does not cost more than current prices. $3600 extraction cost vs current $15000 market price. Quite a nice margin!
@@ericsimard5650 Very interesting! Thanks, Eric!
How much of a risk is there that the OTHER e-vehicle manufacturers could lock up much of the Lithium supply with long-term contracts, squeezing Telsa even more?
Jordan, your show kicks ass! I always enjoy it very much.
🤠 Yeehaw!
And there is a company close to their NV factory which is currently setting up a pilot program to test a sulphur-free saline extraction. The answer is very clear...
Cypress Development is building a pilot plant using saline !!
Excellent information, well done Jordan, thank you!!
UA-cam algorithm! Do your thing on this amazing channel! Love your videos
Google got smarter, they leave out comments mentioning "youtube algorithm".....just kidding...
Brilliant, Jordan. Many thanks.
Such high quality video after video. Thank you!
Love the content. Thanks, as always for your deep dive perspective! Very helpful.
Nice job, as always. Really good writing, too.
I'm curious what will happen with clay. Since I'm living in Europe not very far from Berlin, having a huge battery factory over there raises an interesting question: where the resources would come from?
As always incredible work and brilliant insight thank you very much and keep it up , love your work
Brilliant as always!
yes! been waiting on this one
Just came up with CCC - Courage Certainy Confidence as apposed to FUD.
CertainTy, and I still understood you.
Your videos are always well researched and incredibly informative! One part of your video made me want to go work for Tesla. (Although I'm more qualified for SpaceX).
Aw cool man! 😊
This is sounding like vertical monopoly. Pretty cool
Great video that gets into the core of Elon’s legacy: Driving the culture of relentless first principles iterative experimental problem solving!
Cypress Development is running a pilot plant using this salt technology. Will be interesting!
Thank you sir.
Currently, there is a process to extract lithium from seawater except that the lithium concentration in seawater is very small. Mixing saltwater with the clay deposits will give you a solution with a much higher concentration of lithium in it. The only question I had after battery day was how he was going to avoid leaving tons of salt behind in the process.
Next video 🤠
I'VE ordered the cyber truck tri motor fsd & have lots of solar to charge it.i can't wait!!
Metal organic framework?? EnergyX??
Very nice and informative vid, as always!!
No doubt, Lithium will be explosive in demand in just a few years (along with the cost!) ..It’s great to see Tesla’s plan to control this before the market price is soaring even higher than it is today, it’s looking like it will be the key factor for all BEV manufacturers going forward..⚡️🔋
Your teespring store Link in the description is not working when you click on it. Thank you for a lovely new informative video as always much respect.
Hi! I"m not sure what's going on, it appears to work for me
Ok, well I manually typed it and accessed it. Thanks. You should put some of those microscopic pics you have in videos on T's and the such... We nerds love that stuff... Great conversation starter...
Gali of Hyperchange spoke about the in-person tour of the battery pilot plant that was conducted on battery day. He said he did not understand all the technical stuff, but, they were shown the lithium extraction process working as well as the raw nickel process...
2:19 Taking over a supplier ‘because they make a profit’ would only make sense of you would make (accept) no or less profit for the investment made. That’s unlikely imo.
There needs to be other benefits like less dependency and tighter integration as described in the video.
'the Whammy Hammer'.... yeah had my 'thumb' under that one a few times...good advice to look out....
LOL, ditto
It's awesome to hear about increased production and cheaper Nickel based batteries for better electric cars, but it's the LFP one's that have me most excited. Iron is incredibly cheap, the infrastructure is already massive, and the high energy density is not as necessary for renewable grid storage.
My wife completely tunes out when I listen to technical videos. But the comments at 11:09 "Either way, it probably chaps Elon's ass" made her roar.
😂😂😂
Thank you good info well presented.
Awesome video, thanks!
Truth be known, I love the battery vids more than the Li extraction stuff. But the extraction has to be designed to secure vast supplies at relatively fixed cost. As you say, it's pretty much inconceivable that Tesla hasn't already worked out the magic to get the Li out of clay. I'd be thinking about fine maceration with nitric acid, but I'm not a chemist or raw materials expert... Evidently, doing it with NaCl sounds a lot more environmentally sound. I assume that must used some form of precipitation process. That may involve hydrochloric acid.
I wonder what strategy Tesla will take in Europe. Given that there is one of the largest lithium deposits in the world (Cinovec), whether it will still be more advantageous to import raw material from the USA, or in some way will be involved in mining in EUROPE.
EU is pushing local sourcing of raw materials (as is the US), so I expect there will be local mines partnering with EU companies and likely with Tesla as well. Watching Jordan's other videos on the subject, I expect European Metals to be a major player in that space.
Wait until Elon starts diverting Nickel-rich asteroids.
Just kidding. Good work!
I assume Tesla will attempt to do in-house anode production too. According to what I've researched on Nouveau Monde, it's a high-margin business.
Hi, do you think it would be viable to have a mixed energy storage approach where you would have battery for shorter, more permanent range and super capacitors that you could charge up very quickly just before going for a road trip and during the trip? You are going to use up the charge you gained at the charging station almost immedialtey either way so shorter energy storage time should not be a problem.
Always thought capacitors were a good way to handle the short term "back-and-forth" of charge, with higher efficiency AND less battery cycling. More range, longer battery life. But after they bought Maxwell, nothing happened with that and I wonder why.
Overcomplicated and minimal utility. Doing with Si is a better solution.
@@thelimitingfactor Thx for the answer. They already use the SC in other places so they didn't think it would overcomplicate their design and the potential utility would be huge. You could charge your car at the maximum charging speed and not degrade the battery at the same time. You could also have a buffer that could take a certain part of the charged energy and then charge the car on the move minimizing your time at the charging station. I read on the topic some more and it turns out they don't use it, because (despite of what I wrote earlier, this was my mistake) they are not lighter than batteries, indeed, they are much heavier. They also have some other problems, but the basic reason behind it is that they are heavy. Very heavy.
Plus when dojo kicks off with its deep learning capability, they will leverage that to help with searching for better processes to do with the hole (🥃) lithium process as well, not to mention simulation and different cathode and anode material. Maybe even solid-state research with dojo.
Scotty ah need more powa.
Ah caany give her anymore she's gonna blow
Can sea water be used with the clay? Probably to many different minerals within it.
For sure...but I don't how or why they'd ship sea water to Nevada. That is, unless they pump brine up from an aquifer?
I know that water is a scarcity in the high desert. I can picture copious amounts of pumped ground water driving down the local water table. A liability in Bolivia as well btw. I am curious to know how they plan to address that. Saturating tons of ore with millions of gallons sea water and replacing it back in the mine sounds like a problem come to think of it. Maybe just create structures, residences and infrastructure from the tailings. I hope I do not come across as dismissive. I am just looking for long term solutions.
The spice(lithium,graphine,nikel)must flow
I still remember all the FUD that legacy auto makers could/would build millions of EVs EASILY and put fledgling Tesla out of business. Few people understood that Tesla had a HUGE advantage of starting with a clean sheet and no worries about owning a bunch of old stuff required to build ICE vehicles. THE SAME IS TRUE for lithium production and everything else Elon does. Start from scratch and do it the most efficient and ecology friendly way possible. Elon does not have past capital investments in old technology worth billions of dollars that he now must get rid of.
Side note. I know silicon results in very real expansion problems. But are these "problems" surmountable, and will silicon one day be a disrupter itself? Where can I learn more about answers to these questions? Thanks.
See the video on 'Cracking the Silicon Code'
@@thelimitingfactor Awesome. Heading there now. Just curious b/c Sila Nano suggests its own disruptive future. Thanks again.
ua-cam.com/video/jOiKzWOZzhE/v-deo.html This may really peak your interest. May be entering new era of chemical performance enhancement. Lay person, but it sounds very powerful.
Turns out that they're just down the street from me. Who'd a thunk?!
Wow, nice smart video! Keep em coming! Vertical integration; The only thing better is a good friend that's more capable, with a similar goal. Maybe there's a better way to pay for cobalt that doesn't involve money or require child slavery.
What is Tesla doing to secure graphite supply?
TALGA GROUP
I missed the notification!!
He who controls the spice controls the universe.
Lithium extracted from lithium clay + salt sounds simple - it probably is. The issue (in Nevada) is that the process likely requires a lot of water. So, if there are no groundwater resources at the mine site, Tesla will have to truck water to the mine, or the mined clay to a water source. Narrow your search of clay projects in Nevada to those that are close to exploitable groundwater. Similarly, in Nevada are there any salt deposits that could be mined? The trifecta of lithium clay deposits, water, and salt might indicate where Tesla's attention is focused.
The method is claimed to use little or at least can recover water used.. The next video should shed some light on that.
Mining is not locked into 'existing flowsheets' the optimal process is designed for each deposit ... Every deposit is different. 'existing flowsheets' simply represent well proven general systems from the last century of advancement of mining and metallurgy.
The real message you need to hear from large mine developers is the fact that you can never just go out and mine. You can stake a claim almost anywhere, that doesn't mean the resource exists. They will need to do extensive geological exploration work - potentially taking years, to actually prove the resource exists, and to delineate ore zones that can be economically mined. They will need to do environmental baseline studies, wild life surveys, archeological surveys. Acid mine drainage and metal leaching studies. Ground water / hydrological studies. Geotechnical studies - how to mine the deposit safely while minimizing the mining of waste material. They'll need to do pre-feasibility studies, feasibility studies. They will need a mine-closure and reclamation plan... you can't just take out the lithium and put the clay back and walk away as Elon said.
They will have to battle multiple tiers of regulators and stakeholders - from groups that simply hate all mining, to groups with other types of land-use rights on the same ground, to first nations people. And there better not be an endangered critter that only lives in that area or a really sacred first nations site.
At least getting financing to build and operate a mine won't be a problem for Tesla.
I think they will be really fortunate if they are mining in 10 years. 5 years? really doubtful. Most large mines in north america ... not trying brand new process technologies ... take DECADES to go from advanced prospects to production. And right now all we know is they have mining claims of unknown quality.
Preachin' to the choir. I just have a limit of how much I can fit in each video. This video was primarily meant to counter the FUD, rather than explore mine lifecycles - which will take several videos
@@thelimitingfactor yup don't mind me, your videos are awesome. And honestly if anyone can find the right people to best navigate that maze I'm sure it's Tesla.
But I think a lot of people don't realize just how optimized mining already is or how long the path to production can be.
I'm guessing that for the near term, they will probably mine nickel from the sea floor. Once the infrastructure is in place in space, then they will have pretty much unlimited metals...including gold and other precious metals...
Lithium - Going back to battery day, we had all these existing pundits saying water clay and salt was not possible. Now I would trust elon if he said this is is what they were going to do, but I wondered.
Thinking about it though. Litithium is in sea water, how could it possibly get there? Salt and water, it just has to be possible.
Typical Elon, told us the simple part but did not mention anything about how they seperate the lithium, while reusing the salt and warer.
Next video
In-house mining , that will take a big house :)
After watching a video on Bolivian lithium production through brine evaporation, then saw the battery day picture of a desert full of lithium clay - I asked myself: "where's the water going to come from?"
Not much will be needed, next video.
"Ideas need to be tested against the ultimate whammy hammer... which is reality"
The real secret is 4680 Sells are really Illenium236 space modulators
Channels that I tune to discuss maters as if Panasonic is transparent doing nothing in advancing Tesla’s goal other than Tesla itself. Why?
"Either way, it probably chaps Elon's ass" Should be a T-shirt
There's lithium in Mexico. I believe it's a good option for Tesla.
Tesla has signed nickel supply agreements in both Indonesia and New Caledonia.
Elon thinks like me, when I ran my business. Mind you, he thinks a lot better 😀
I’ll bet Elon and his lieutenants have read Science Fiction; Heinlein, Herbert, et al
‘chaps Elon’s ass’, well sir you win the internet today.
😂
Don't forget lower grade mineral resource and upfront capital expenditure to develop the mine. Your lithium cost is only production cost and does not include the capex. Developing a mine, the size required for Tesla, would cost billions. You have to capitalize that.
As someone who works in mining, I would say you have no clue what motivates the mining industry. If a new process was developed, they would jump all over it. That is not the issue. I am not saying Tesla has not developed a process, they may have. But the mining industry would not question this.
I believe Tesla could run a mine. But the same mine would not be profitable to a mining company, but to tesla it is because if feeds the machine.
You also need to consider the environmental and regulatory issues. Permitting an open pit mine takes 5 to 10 years typically. How will they fast track that? The govt moves at their own pace, not Tesla's.
1) I keep these videos focused rather than wide ranging. Good points, but some of them for other videos. I clearly said at the beginning of the video that the purpose was to provide balance against the FUD. It wasn't too steel man the mining industry, it was too steel man Tesla.
2) Try arguing the point, rather than the man. It makes you sound butt hurt and defensive.
3) I didn't say they couldn't develop something like this, I said it's possible that Tesla could develop it faster. I also didn't say that the mining industry wouldn't pursue something like this, they clearly are and have been. However, they aren't as motivated as Tesla. If they were, we wouldn't be expecting a massive material shortfall in the next 1-3 years.
4) Preaching to the choir. Vertical integration may be worth Tesla's time, it may not. That's why I say at the end of the next video I give it a 70% chance.
5) Yup, I considered them, and it's a topic for another video. What if it becomes a national strategic priority? It's happening in other countries.
@@thelimitingfactor Sorry if I sounded snarky, was not intended as such. I have been in mining for 30 years and it sometimes frustrates me when I see people stating opinions about the industry when they really don't have a deep understanding of what it is about.
Cheers!
Algorithm help post.
You are ignoring the liquid battery.
Are you referring to the ambri liquid metal battery? It's not suitable for use in vehicles, and it doesn't use lithium, so no reason to mention it in this video.
Where're the Blender special effect animations? Are you becoming lazy? 😉
If I hire someone else to do them, it costs more than I make off the videos. If I make them, it takes as long as the video itself. I may be a year before I'm decent.
Tesla will be affected by the lithium shortage no matter how fast they manage to produce anything themselves unless they have big supply deals, unknown to the public, at fixed prices to cover their entire demand, which is unlikely. Mining something on their own by 2025 would already be fast. I don't see how Tesla can earn a significant net margin, when raw materials that it has to buy get much more expensive. It is not just lithium. UBS wrote "Industry feedback tells us that the most we could expect in recycled lithium by 2030e is ~80kt LCE” That is a small amount compared to how big global demand will grow.