Quick PSA about my Ever Crisis simulations! Page 3 of the stamp cards in the MH collab banners has one less selectable featured weapon stamp compared to the LB banners. This makes a big difference in the number of crystals you need for OB6 and OB10! The simulations in my video are based on the LB banner, so they *underestimate* the number of crystals you need to reach those overboost levels in the MH collab banners. However, I’ve run simulations for the MH collab banners as well! It’s actually how I noticed the difference in the stamp cards 😅 The results are in @Nitelight9‘s Discord. Join his Discord!
Oh this is not just interesting it’s awesome, thank you so much. Finally we have some real statistics here. Don’t need to rely on just the odds shown in the game. Thank you so much. Your a godsend ❤
198k crystals to have 90% chances to OB10??? sheeeeeeeeeeesh!! I'm going to need to save a lot for the next anniversary hahaha Thanks a lot for putting this together, just shared this with my friends, I found this extremely useful. It somewhat applies to all gacha not just this one! Sad to see you are taking a break but excited for your next adventure, all the best, Jace! You are one of the best content creators of FF7:EC, and you´ll be missed big time!
Thanks Pliyo! Glad it was useful, and I appreciate your kind words! The excitement you always show in your videos never failed to put me in a better mood whenever I watched them! Wishing you the best, and perhaps I'll see you around in comments :)
This is an interesting video and it kind of backs up what the eye test already shows. This game comes across as a rather generous gacha but is anything but. The endless free pulls and the stamp pity kind of mask the harsh reality that getting a banner or wishlisted weapon to OB6 is actually quite the challenge. However saying that I do feel that they give out enough currency that it's pragmatic to favour the ftp play style over that of a whale. My mind set however has changed I don't value costumes as much as I did in the early game. The smart money now seems to be on saving around 70k currency and having a go at OB'6ing a limited weapon as the extra guaranteed drops make it more of a reality. Of course you can get burned but that's the nature of the beast. And I'm starting to find so many weapons just sit and collect dust at OB1, especially when faced with end game content.
Honestly, a lot of content doesn't require OB6 weapons. I got through the majority of the game with weapons under OB6, just relying on 4* materia. Even with the banners not being quite as kind as we'd like when it comes to weapons, I still think the game is f2p friendly. Just, like you said, maybe not as incredibly f2p-friendly as some others might think ;) As for costumes, once a character had a costume with HP on it, they always became a lot more usable for me. That's probably why they stopped giving us those free event costumes XD
@@jace743 Oh absolutely, certain OB1 weapons are game changing, such as Matt's centipede. However I'm strictly talking about these incredibly difficult end game challenges, EX2 of the dual summons and the like. That's why I'm beginning to favour the idea of 3 pages of the limited banners over a costume here and there. You yourself saw a big spike with hitting that Zack OB6+ fire weapon. It just seems more achievable than hitting up a regular banner and then slapping it on your wish list for the next 6 months praying you finally get those extra copies. I do feel the regular banners probably need a rework at this stage, maybe something like a weapon choice voucher thrown in. Their value is rough these days.
Also Highwind overall is a positive passive and Free power upgrade across the board - you can easily get at least +6-7% HP, Phy/Magic damage and on top at least 10% Weapon ability C potency at no cost. That is HUGE. And its Free.
Same for me! After seeing these numbers, I wasn't so sour about a lot of my pull outcomes. It's so hard to know what we should be expecting solely based on the information they give us in game. But, that's the nature of gacha in general -- just one of the ways they get people to spend money.
BROOOOO. First off, GREAT content! Second off, this confirms my continued abysmal luck on tifa pulls. I had 21k. 2 stamps into card , so I needed 10 stamps on 7 pulls. I think even based on this it's like 80% .... I shit you not I got 8 stamps on 7 pulls with 2 non-guaranteed 5* weapons. I was literally devastated. So, I caved in and made a purchase to get the last 2 stamps. Couldn't deal with having that happen to me again. Vent session over! (I may make a vid about it, not sure.) But Great vid man!! This is good info!
Dude I really dont know how I got ob9 guide gloves with 35 or 40k. It was so insane I got like 400 parts in one pull. Was nuts. I bought 100 weapon parts of Tifa to max the weapon as a kind of gratitude lol oh yeah and I missed one glove coz I ran out of crystals. I would have got ob10 with 3 or 6k more crystals. The thing is I got too many globes but the stamp was just one all the time…
OOF! Yeah man, that really is super unlucky. When I have a moment, I can let you know in Discord DM's what your luck was like for the number of 5*'s you got along the way, but my first read is that portion of your pulls was ALSO unlucky :(
Not a bad plan! Most of the time that I pulled for a costume, I had way more than 36k crystals, just because I tended to be stingy with my spending, even as a $5 player.
Very interesting vid. Can you explain the math on the chances to get OB6 for limited banners? If we take the current banner for example, if we go through 3 pages, there are four weapons slots you can select, which would get you to OB3, if you pick the same weapon for each slot, which means we'd have to pull 3 non-guaranteed pulls of that weapon to get it to OB6. Each limit weapon has 1% odds, so if you are targeting a specific weapon, on average, out of ten 10-pulls (e.g. 100 total), we'd expect to get 1 non-guaranteed pull of that specific weapon. Granted the math would change slightly based on the pulls taken up by guarantees, wouldn't that mean that it would take thirty 10-pulls on average to get to OB6, which would be 90K crystals? At 63K crystals, you have the odds at 56.8%, and at 63K crystals, you probably have close to even odds of not even making it to the end of the 3rd stamp card, meaning you'd only have gotten 3 guarantees and need to draw 4 more non-guaranteed pulls of the weapon, further lowering the odds. If I check a probability calculator, at 1% odds, after 210 pulls (the equivalent of 63K blue crystals), there is only a 35% chance to get at least 3 of your targeted weapon. Am I missing something?
Thanks! Happy to cover what I can. Keep in mind that I programmed the probabilities provided by the game into my simulator, so I myself didn’t actually do any math. But, I can provide some relevant info. 1. Page 3 of the MH collab banners has one less guaranteed featured weapon than the LB banners. This was a small, sneaky change by them that I haven’t heard anyone else mention (confirmed by my code and LB banner pull videos), and it makes a sizable difference. They replaced page 3 stamp 6 with a guaranteed 5 star instead of a selectable, featured one. 2. Your math doesn’t factor in the 3* and 4* drops for the featured weapons, the rates of which increased compared to other weapons in the pool. These seem insignificant, but they actually add up a decent amount over time. The simulator does 10-pulls until it has enough weapon parts for the target overboost level, not necessarily until it draws the exact number of 5* weapons to achieve that overboost level. So, if it gets a 4* on the last pull, putting the weapon parts count at 1400, it (correctly) stops if the stopping criterion was to reach OB6. 3. I would have to run sims to get the probability of completing three stamp cards in 63k. However, my first guess is that the odds of that happening aren’t exactly low - gotta keep in mind that stamps you can earn on a previous card carry over to the next one, which means multiplying the amount of expected crystals to complete one card by 3 is going to probably overestimate the amount you need (not sure if this is what you did, but highlighting it as a potential pitfall just to be safe). Hope this helps! 🙂
@Bear-Power-Pup you’re welcome! Yeah if you’re at OB9, I would just wait for character weapon parts, and that’s only if you reeeeeally want to OB10 the weapon
I can, if you're interested! It's definitely in an "MVP" / 0.1.0 state, and it's not well-documented just yet. I noticed several optimizations I could make after I'd already written automated tests for it, and it kinda came down to whether I wanted to finish the project at that point. I knew that if I went back and made those optimizations, I just straight up wasn't gonna finish writing this thing, because I was getting tired XD. That being said, if you DM me on Discord (I'm Jace743 there as well), I can share it with you.
Haha, you aren't tripping! It's that very theme :) It's the Celsius Airship Theme "We're the Gullwings". To find it, I just searched 'ffx2 ship music'. There's a 1-hour version. Such a throwback!
24k is a good number! I'm walking away from my account with it at about 22k, but if they release a Matt costume, I'd probably reinstall, pull for it, then uninstall, just to make sure I have that costume if I decide to come back.
@@Marzellus1991 yeah. Real life stuff is just getting too busy. Keeping up with the game and making content for it is starting to feel more like another thing I have to do versus something fun that I look forward to. So, pausing for now.
I spent over 80k to get glens limit weapon to ob4 without any additionally saved weapon parts. That's with all the guaranteed copies on the stamp. The game has bs rates
![[Ever Crisis] Trial of Leviathan EX2 | Matt, Zack, Red XIII](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/BQdnHk0ESvA/mqdefault.jpg)
Quick PSA about my Ever Crisis simulations!
Page 3 of the stamp cards in the MH collab banners has one less selectable featured weapon stamp compared to the LB banners. This makes a big difference in the number of crystals you need for OB6 and OB10! The simulations in my video are based on the LB banner, so they *underestimate* the number of crystals you need to reach those overboost levels in the MH collab banners.
However, I’ve run simulations for the MH collab banners as well! It’s actually how I noticed the difference in the stamp cards 😅 The results are in @Nitelight9‘s Discord. Join his Discord!
Oh this is not just interesting it’s awesome, thank you so much. Finally we have some real statistics here. Don’t need to rely on just the odds shown in the game. Thank you so much. Your a godsend ❤
198k crystals to have 90% chances to OB10??? sheeeeeeeeeeesh!! I'm going to need to save a lot for the next anniversary hahaha
Thanks a lot for putting this together, just shared this with my friends, I found this extremely useful. It somewhat applies to all gacha not just this one! Sad to see you are taking a break but excited for your next adventure, all the best, Jace! You are one of the best content creators of FF7:EC, and you´ll be missed big time!
Thanks Pliyo! Glad it was useful, and I appreciate your kind words! The excitement you always show in your videos never failed to put me in a better mood whenever I watched them! Wishing you the best, and perhaps I'll see you around in comments :)
This is an interesting video and it kind of backs up what the eye test already shows.
This game comes across as a rather generous gacha but is anything but. The endless free pulls and the stamp pity kind of mask the harsh reality that getting a banner or wishlisted weapon to OB6 is actually quite the challenge.
However saying that I do feel that they give out enough currency that it's pragmatic to favour the ftp play style over that of a whale.
My mind set however has changed I don't value costumes as much as I did in the early game.
The smart money now seems to be on saving around 70k currency and having a go at OB'6ing a limited weapon as the extra guaranteed drops make it more of a reality. Of course you can get burned but that's the nature of the beast.
And I'm starting to find so many weapons just sit and collect dust at OB1, especially when faced with end game content.
Honestly, a lot of content doesn't require OB6 weapons. I got through the majority of the game with weapons under OB6, just relying on 4* materia. Even with the banners not being quite as kind as we'd like when it comes to weapons, I still think the game is f2p friendly. Just, like you said, maybe not as incredibly f2p-friendly as some others might think ;)
As for costumes, once a character had a costume with HP on it, they always became a lot more usable for me. That's probably why they stopped giving us those free event costumes XD
@@jace743
Oh absolutely, certain OB1 weapons are game changing, such as Matt's centipede. However I'm strictly talking about these incredibly difficult end game challenges, EX2 of the dual summons and the like.
That's why I'm beginning to favour the idea of 3 pages of the limited banners over a costume here and there. You yourself saw a big spike with hitting that Zack OB6+ fire weapon.
It just seems more achievable than hitting up a regular banner and then slapping it on your wish list for the next 6 months praying you finally get those extra copies. I do feel the regular banners probably need a rework at this stage, maybe something like a weapon choice voucher thrown in. Their value is rough these days.
@@cwh-barr2441 Ahh, yeah, 100% agree
Also Highwind overall is a positive passive and Free power upgrade across the board - you can easily get at least +6-7% HP, Phy/Magic damage and on top at least 10% Weapon ability C potency at no cost. That is HUGE. And its Free.
thanks for info Jace and wishing you the best in your new ventures!
You're welcome, and thank you so much!
Great video, really helpful for pull decisions and amount of crystals to save up
Nice! Just what I wanted to hear :)
Great video, really shows how lucky i got on some banners and then others i thought i was doing really bad on it was actually not as bad as i thought
Same for me! After seeing these numbers, I wasn't so sour about a lot of my pull outcomes. It's so hard to know what we should be expecting solely based on the information they give us in game. But, that's the nature of gacha in general -- just one of the ways they get people to spend money.
Great video, thanks for sharing this information ! Really usefull!
You're welcome! Glad you liked it :)
BROOOOO. First off, GREAT content! Second off, this confirms my continued abysmal luck on tifa pulls. I had 21k. 2 stamps into card , so I needed 10 stamps on 7 pulls. I think even based on this it's like 80% .... I shit you not I got 8 stamps on 7 pulls with 2 non-guaranteed 5* weapons. I was literally devastated. So, I caved in and made a purchase to get the last 2 stamps. Couldn't deal with having that happen to me again. Vent session over! (I may make a vid about it, not sure.)
But Great vid man!! This is good info!
Dude I really dont know how I got ob9 guide gloves with 35 or 40k. It was so insane I got like 400 parts in one pull. Was nuts. I bought 100 weapon parts of Tifa to max the weapon as a kind of gratitude lol oh yeah and I missed one glove coz I ran out of crystals. I would have got ob10 with 3 or 6k more crystals. The thing is I got too many globes but the stamp was just one all the time…
OOF! Yeah man, that really is super unlucky. When I have a moment, I can let you know in Discord DM's what your luck was like for the number of 5*'s you got along the way, but my first read is that portion of your pulls was ALSO unlucky :(
@@carlosrezende9522 Hey, someone's gotta be lucky at some point! Congrats again :)
This is awesome content
Thank you! I was quite nervous that people would be bored by it.
Thanks for the awesome content, we appreciate it
I same usually 30k for safe,with the luck I have, nice video but very interesting
Not a bad plan! Most of the time that I pulled for a costume, I had way more than 36k crystals, just because I tended to be stingy with my spending, even as a $5 player.
Nitelight sent me
Nitelight is the best 🫡
i guess i've exhausted all my gacha luck back in november where i got ob6 zidane sword with 2 pages xd
That’s pretty damn good haha
Very interesting vid. Can you explain the math on the chances to get OB6 for limited banners? If we take the current banner for example, if we go through 3 pages, there are four weapons slots you can select, which would get you to OB3, if you pick the same weapon for each slot, which means we'd have to pull 3 non-guaranteed pulls of that weapon to get it to OB6. Each limit weapon has 1% odds, so if you are targeting a specific weapon, on average, out of ten 10-pulls (e.g. 100 total), we'd expect to get 1 non-guaranteed pull of that specific weapon. Granted the math would change slightly based on the pulls taken up by guarantees, wouldn't that mean that it would take thirty 10-pulls on average to get to OB6, which would be 90K crystals? At 63K crystals, you have the odds at 56.8%, and at 63K crystals, you probably have close to even odds of not even making it to the end of the 3rd stamp card, meaning you'd only have gotten 3 guarantees and need to draw 4 more non-guaranteed pulls of the weapon, further lowering the odds. If I check a probability calculator, at 1% odds, after 210 pulls (the equivalent of 63K blue crystals), there is only a 35% chance to get at least 3 of your targeted weapon. Am I missing something?
Thanks! Happy to cover what I can. Keep in mind that I programmed the probabilities provided by the game into my simulator, so I myself didn’t actually do any math. But, I can provide some relevant info.
1. Page 3 of the MH collab banners has one less guaranteed featured weapon than the LB banners. This was a small, sneaky change by them that I haven’t heard anyone else mention (confirmed by my code and LB banner pull videos), and it makes a sizable difference. They replaced page 3 stamp 6 with a guaranteed 5 star instead of a selectable, featured one.
2. Your math doesn’t factor in the 3* and 4* drops for the featured weapons, the rates of which increased compared to other weapons in the pool. These seem insignificant, but they actually add up a decent amount over time. The simulator does 10-pulls until it has enough weapon parts for the target overboost level, not necessarily until it draws the exact number of 5* weapons to achieve that overboost level. So, if it gets a 4* on the last pull, putting the weapon parts count at 1400, it (correctly) stops if the stopping criterion was to reach OB6.
3. I would have to run sims to get the probability of completing three stamp cards in 63k. However, my first guess is that the odds of that happening aren’t exactly low - gotta keep in mind that stamps you can earn on a previous card carry over to the next one, which means multiplying the amount of expected crystals to complete one card by 3 is going to probably overestimate the amount you need (not sure if this is what you did, but highlighting it as a potential pitfall just to be safe).
Hope this helps! 🙂
@@jace743 Makes sense, thanks!
Me spending 40k gems and got OB 10 Zidane Sword. 😂
AI: Impossible!
OMG! 200k ob10😱
I got MH for 100k OB9
That’s AWESOME! Congrats!
@@jace743 btw forget to thank you
if i i didnt saw your vidoe i migth go for OB10 and waste like 30k more cystal
Best vidoe please keep it up ^^
@Bear-Power-Pup you’re welcome! Yeah if you’re at OB9, I would just wait for character weapon parts, and that’s only if you reeeeeally want to OB10 the weapon
Will you be making your code available?
I can, if you're interested! It's definitely in an "MVP" / 0.1.0 state, and it's not well-documented just yet. I noticed several optimizations I could make after I'd already written automated tests for it, and it kinda came down to whether I wanted to finish the project at that point. I knew that if I went back and made those optimizations, I just straight up wasn't gonna finish writing this thing, because I was getting tired XD. That being said, if you DM me on Discord (I'm Jace743 there as well), I can share it with you.
Sir, errrm is this background theme from ffx-2 or am i trippin, u mind giving me the name from the theme?
Haha, you aren't tripping! It's that very theme :) It's the Celsius Airship Theme "We're the Gullwings". To find it, I just searched 'ffx2 ship music'. There's a 1-hour version. Such a throwback!
I usually save up 24k just to be safe, sometimes its less or more but it varies with rng lol.
24k is a good number! I'm walking away from my account with it at about 22k, but if they release a Matt costume, I'd probably reinstall, pull for it, then uninstall, just to make sure I have that costume if I decide to come back.
@@jace743 taking a break from the game?
@@Marzellus1991 yeah. Real life stuff is just getting too busy. Keeping up with the game and making content for it is starting to feel more like another thing I have to do versus something fun that I look forward to. So, pausing for now.
@@jace743 Ever Crisis community is loosing a fantastic member and contributor, sad day :( Your guides were truly irreplaceable for F2P
They do have a Matt banner out currently.
I spent over 80k to get glens limit weapon to ob4 without any additionally saved weapon parts. That's with all the guaranteed copies on the stamp. The game has bs rates
Aww damn! Sounds like you really got burned by the tail end of the distribution, because that's some pretty bad luck. Sorry!
Got ob9 guide gloves with like 35k or 40k crystals LOL
Lol holy crap, you were so lucky! That's wild. Congrats!