Ancient 1875 Forecast Shows When Stocks Will TOP!!
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
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Ep. 278 - Looking at a little known cycle analysis from a commodity trader back in the 1800s shows us when we can expect a major top in the stock market. So far his record has been remarkable.
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There are a handful of stock sending the market higher, not a good time to invest, to much negativity and reckless spending by government.
Not a handful. The market is warming up to a melt up in and thru the election. Zero resistance above
Yes mag 7 still doing a lot of heavy lifting in the market, and agree, long term, new money here is likely to underperform in the years ahead and like you say gov spending will have to come back down to reality too.
Is it just me or are u guys also finding it harder to find stocks to buy at a great discount to their earnings? Some of the valuations are mad…. Im mostly in cash now
Yes I hear you, like Warren Buffett says too, there's no easy bargains out there, and earning 5.3% risk-free is appealing in this environment, I'm sure value investors will get their opportunities in the years ahead though.
50% cash here… trading mostly with volatility until we get a real corrective sell off even if it takes months.
Scan for ceo/cfo insider stock purchases, looking for first time buys, and large buys.
Market is going to pump thru the election. Lot of money to be made in the next few months
Nissan, Zoom (see balance sheet) Brazil, China, and rare earth metals (REMX)
What Land REITs are you interested in?
Land, Tpl, Fpi, pch, trc, mlp are on my land reits watchlist. Cheers!
No one can predict the future though
Yes but we can try!
@@Click-Capital Heck yea! I predict Benner proven accurate again.
Glad you highlighted the Benner cycle. Very few peeps listen when I bring it up. 👍💯
Another solid green week here. Thanks Jared! Have a brilliant weekend!
Yes I remember you mentioning it to me several times and it stuck in my mind, I think it could be lining up again for a potential top in 2026, let’s see!
Enjoy your weekend too mate!
Great stuff Jared. The Benner Cycle is fascinating - a mate of mine is obsessed with a guy into cycles who goes by the name of Martin Armstrong. I don't know if the Benner cycle synchronises with those of Martin Armstrong but my mate tells me that 2032 is going to be a pivotal year in human history in terms of financial markets, politics, and wider society. Something tells me that Armstrong believes 2032 will be long-term peak in private equity and stock markets. He has some sort of AI model which predicts the Dow jones peaking at 77,000 into that timeframe. But I might be wrong? Anyway, have a great, well-deserved weekend!
Interesting to hear Scott, I think cycles are definitely part of nature but nothing can predict anything with a great deal of accuracy. Let’s see!
Just curious, has cannibis been legalized in New Zealand?
Have a good weekend Jerod!
Not quite, we had a referendum a few years back, came in 51% said no, old boomers understanding of it stuck in the 50s, plus no positive campaigns to the public showing the science and data with benefits of legalization, however medical cannabis is legal and easily obtainable here.
Enjoy your weekend to mate, cheers!
Lets see the tech, and need to borrow money, ratio.....because big tech needs zero money to grow now, they do however need people to buy. Im with you, can't suppress oil forever....
Good point Hulk, I think the Gov and Fed could have a problem on their hands if they can't keep a lid on the commodity complex from ripping higher in this vunerable spot their in now with huge debt, interest repayments and persist high rates.
Thanks Jared. The bad thing is a lot of commodities are no longer hated and are up from their lows. Having hard time to buy things myself. Although if we have a recession and pull back in markers, we might get a chance at somewhat better entry. Looking at SBSW and PLG. SBSW is still ok to enter.
Welcome Sebastian. Yes value is disappearing out there, but we'll get a chance to reload in the next bear market for sure. Interesting picks you got there. Cheers!
@@Click-Capitalyes they are both platinum plays. I don't have much outside of physical platinum. I think the upside in platinum could match silver.
Hey TME-Jared, brace for impact, bro! Cheers from Germany (Mathias)
Let’s see mate, markets are well supported here, I’m watching your cycles though! Cheers, Jared
It’s going to be hard for any semi-company to catch up with nvidia for a couple years. It’s a bit like Tesla compared to the rest of US electric vehicles. At some point, competition will drive prices down but that’s likely fairly far off.
TSLA and NVDA still have the leads over most their industries especially in terms of brand strength, at least here in the west. But yes competition will squeeze margins going forward, already happening with TSLA.
@@TehPwnerer fairly far off for nvda. Like you said already happening to Tesla especially in China… although they are still light years ahead of any US ev manufacturer.
@@hillingerpersonaltraining5946 which part of their tech stack is light-years ahead?
Great video.
Particularly looking forward to to the end of July through August as the DOJ rubber stamps Biden’s effort to reschedule Cannabis to schedule III. SAFER act is also in the works to allow cannabis businesses to bank more easily.
Glad you liked it.
Yes progress in canabis legalization seems to be moving along in the right direction, hopefully no hiccups along the way and Biden can get it 100% done before November. Cheers!
If all the government spending and loose financial conditions are the main driver of asset price inflation and thus market returns doesn’t it stand to reason voting democrat is better for investors?
Pretty sure Wall Street has historically had democratic bias for those reasons. 2016 demonstrated that they effectively curate the democratic leadership to their liking.
Yes the excess gov spending for the benefit of those at the top is good for them now, but bad for the whole country long term though.
Have a nice long weekend!
Thanks, you too mate!
Hey Jared where do you see Chinese markets when the usa markets roll over? They already had their recession and its assumed that they bottomed in Jan…. Strongly linked to global economy…. Will they suffer again?
Hey Pria, that's hard to say as anything can happen in the markets, if we went into a bad enough global recession then Chinese markets are likely to be pulled down with that however if it's more US pulling back, then I think China can still pull apart as the correlation with the rest of the world is the lowest amongst developed markets, and their system is very different from the West too. Either way, it makes for good diversification in a global portfolio. Cheers!
Excellent research ! Thank you
Glad it was helpful! Cheers
Thank you
You’re welcome!
I am going to remain bullish NVDA until we start to see margin compression. The business model they are using is lightyears ahead of the competition. But yeah it is tough to say this is just the beginning but is it really ? One interesting word on the street I got last week is that their is gonna be one of the biggest PC upgrade cycles we have ever had as AI is integrated into the PC we can buy as consumers. Wish I hadn't sole my DELL at $100.
Yes DELL has come back in a big way! I think NVDA dominates for years ahead, whether their stock price does the same thing could be another story, but even if they hold their margins/growth like this for another year or 2 then current valuation isn't that crazy, and stepping back holistically, the world's biggest AI hardware company probably does deserve a 3 trillion valuation. Getting to 10 trillion is another thing though. Cheers mate!
Right. Thats why the next 4 months will offer substantial gains for those invested and not waiting for the pullback
Yes, there is plenty of momentum in this market and dozens of growth stocks ripping higher this year.
Chat GPT sucks. It’s like talking to a 5 year old. Not sure if you like talking to 5 year olds but it’s exhausting to correct and train it to not be stupid
Not sure what you’re using it for John however for me I find it very valuable across many tasks, from cooking, travelling and work.
Jerod, do you think it’s a good time to buy copper on the current pullback? Looks like pretty much all copper stocks just pulled back.
I think here and now this pullback could have further to go, hard to say, but looking at medium/long term chart of COPX, it still looks very constructive. Cheers!
Invidia in Latin means Envy… we haven’t reached the envy stage yet… still more froth to come
I think to John, could get really crazy before finding a final blow off top.
Powell and yellen will cut it off at the knees if Trump wins
I agree 100% Darrell.