Really interesting insights! Coincidentally I finalized and have been trading exclusively my two ichimoku strategies that I developed on my own and that are very similar to these. Extremely similar. But you've given me a few more things to consider and test. I'm excited to test them out. Thanks for the video!
If you watch the second half of my ichimoku playlist, you'll get a few more ideas on how to use higher TF to filter out bounce signals as well. LMK how it goes for you.
Glad you liked it Mr. Dustloc. Check out part 2 where I show how to make the bounce trade even more profitable: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html You'll also love my essential playlist for risk mgt and psychology tips.
i watched all the video's. Im wondering about allot of things. Do you watch high impact news and do you wait for the news to pass. And do you skip entry at the daily when price is close to weekly resistance evendo you have all the right signals. And have you tested to wait for chico to also cross the cloud? In my backtest it cancels allot bad trades. Chico often bounces at the top of the cloud. And do you hold positions over the weekend. And last question, do you take multiple possitions at the same time? @@kevincortese7751
Hi Noel. Those are great questions and ideas for future videos! During my backtest I took every trade, not considering any of those factors, but I'm also curious how they would impact results. 1. High Impact News - As a practical matter, I tend to stay out of the market 15 mins before/after a high impact event due to slippage and whipsaws. However, I'll let my open trades run. Sometimes my good trades run for a week or more and would be cut short due to multiple news events throughout the week. Taking every trade was profitable and I might guess my results would be worse than theoretically by avoiding news. I could save 1R, maybe 2R with slippage if my breakeven trade loses to news, but I could potentially make a quick 5R etc if news really takes off in my direction. 2-3 Close to weekly resistance/Lagging. For backtesting, I like to have quantifiable numbers to be able to compare apples to apples. How would you define "close?" Within 1ATR, 3ATR, etc? Practically speaking, I wouldn't take a valid trade if the weekly level would not give me the potential of at least 3:1 room to move. I think it's a good idea to test the daily lagging being within 1-3ATR from cloud and seeing how that would affect results. I agree it could cancel out some bad trades, but wonder how many good trades it would nullify as well. 4. Weekends. Yes, I hold over the weekend. I adjust my SL when price closes below TK or KJ and exit automatically when it gets hit.
Hey, Kevin, these videos are pure gold...I was experimenting myself with Ichimoku and you literally saved me hours of work. Your content are nucch better than the majority of expensive course out there....and I have spent a lot of money. THANK YOU!
Thank you for the kind words. Check out my ichimoku playlist where I show you how to further refine the breakout and bounce systems using the higher time frame. If you will use it on different assets or time frames, please backtest for yourself. Ichimoku is a trend-following system with less than a 50% winrate. It only works if you fully let the trades play out and not take cut your winners short. Keep that in mind. ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
Happy you enjoyed it. Check out my full ichimoku playlist and let me know if you have any questions: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
Thanks for sharing this tips for trailing stoploss.. I'm using lagging span as take profits once it cross the price its a sign for taking profit, and as I've notice on this video, most likely its the same area or price on your trail stop strategy..
Hi Mini. So if you are long and the lagging drops below the candle 26 periods ago - this is a time you may close out the trade? You may be interested in my lagging span video on how you can use it to filter your entries: ua-cam.com/video/tmNKTyZ5hnA/v-deo.html
@@kevincortese7751Maybe as a last addition to everything you can make a short video for an exemplary 4h trade with first the 5 known rules for kumo breakout trade with the right ATR and at the same time observe the rules from the extended video in the 1D chart and in the course of this trades nor the re-entry rules and the right trailing SL....... 🙂
Hi Mark. I know it's a lot to keep track of. I have a couple vids coming out in the next week or so on how to modify the bounce trade. You're right, I should eventually make a video summarizing everything up to that point!
Could you explain why the 3 candle rule is there? What is it for, choppy markets? Does it only apply to bounce trades or all trades? I'm probably beginning to annoy you and I'll ease up a bit with the questions. This is just the way I learn best. Thanks so much for your patience Kevin. Your effort is very much appreciated!
Your questions are great. Sometimes when I get an exit signal I get another entry signal on that same candle or the next one. Honestly I don't know if it's okay to jump right back in, but it gives me a chance to walk it off and clear my head. In theory, price doesn't usually reverse on a dime and would prob consolidate for a while. You could use a 2 candle rule or no candle rule. Whatever works better for your psychology.
@@kevincortese7751 P.s. I spend the past weeks testing a lot. All to do with my initial ichimoku strategy and your inputs. Just for everyone's information: I currently test the ES on the 5 min. TF. Some things worked better, but most notably (and this I did not expect at all) the bounce trades seemed to yield slightly worse results! The bounce trades seemed to have quite some false signals. Furthermore I implemented going into the trade when TK and KJ overlap ie. are the same price. Yet, before I waited for the actual split of the lines. Not waiting yielded better results. There were some false signals, but overall the tendency was that I had better entries, because the waiting often wasted part of the move. Interestingly, your strategy (at least the cloud break strategy) has to have all factors align exactly, otherwise it's a no go. For the ES on the 5 minute this doesn't work well. You'd leave a lot on the table. Therefor I used my old rule > Being able to wait for factors to align, even after the cloud break candle. My old strategy used to wait for the lagging span to break the cloud. However now I use your rule of it having to break price. This gives better results! Could the differences here have to do with the TF? Personally I think this may make quite a difference, but I don't know why. You'd say the TFs are just fractals of each other... All in all I want to thank you so much for all your videos, explanations and input!
Hi Mars. Appreciate you testing things out for yourself. I may have mentioned fractals in previous videos but this is just a way to represent highs and lows (meaning a fractal is a low if two candles on the left and right are higher) - not in the sense that a lower time frame displays exactly the same patterns in a compressed time frame. With any system, the lower time frame will give more false signals. I'm a bit surprised ichimoku is successful at all on the 5m but props to you for making it work. On the 4H, the TK and KJ are occasionally the same value but I can understand on the 5M how they could be the same more often. In that case, I'd agree that as long as price is above for a long it could work taking it right away. Before I tested it, I also thought waiting for the lagging to completely clear the cloud would be a good idea - but as I found it's better to get in when price is still building up the momentum instead of waiting. Check out my essential series that goes over psychology, risk mgt, etc: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGjY9GHP3FOTbzyM6kSfkCx.html
I want to try it in forex trading so please can you suggest me the best timeframe and for how much time should i take the trade on ichimoku cloud settings 7,24,52Tenkan-sen (conversion line), Kijun-sen (base line), and Chikou Span (lagging span) respectively. Senkou Span A (leading span A) and Senkou Span B (leading span B) are derived from these and don't need separate settings.please please guide me sir
I've always used the default settings of 9,26,52. You can use it on the 15M, 1H, 4H. I would use 4x higher to filter trades 15M/1H, 1H/4H and 4H/24H. See here for using the higher time to filter: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
I mainly trade FX and haven't done a deep backtest for crypto. Crypto can be a bit more volatile, but the ATR will take this into account. Depending on the time frame, around 1.25x ATR should be a good starting place. Using TK for trailing will experience less drawdown but have you in and out more. Using KJ will have more drawdown but you can set an alert and not have to mess with it as much.
Suggestion: Hi Kevin, very interesting videos. I've been looking for, and testing many trading strategies. Now I'm testing ichimoku, since it seems to produce decent trades (I test on the ES, 5 min. TF). However in my strategy, I exit a little bit differently. With my current strategy, I exit whenever the lagging line crosses back into the body of a candle or even crosses under the body of a candle. Wicks don't count. This seems to trail price really well. However I don't know what the results would be on larger TFs and on the forex pairs of course. Maybe this would be an interesting test to cover in a video. Thanks for the great material and keep up the good work!
This is an interesting idea. I quickly clicked through a few charts and price almost always closed across the TK and KJ before (and sometimes many more candles before) the lagging closed into/past the candle. On the 5M like you trade, this may not be a bad thing if the ES tends to bounce up and down on the smaller time frame. It's worth testing to see if it's better to get out when price slightly retraces (TK), stalls out (KJ) or possibly reverses (lagging).
One more thing I didn't mention - we must always have an initial stop loss set. To just get out when the lagging moves across the candle would be a major mistake. On a good day you could expect to win about 40% so you need to plan for losses. Price could start to go the other way as soon as we enter. Exiting with your condition implies that your initial stop loss is even further away or else you'd already be out of the trade. I'd worry this would be such a large initital stop to give you cushion that it'd be hard to achieve a meaningful R:R and end up negative overall.
@@kevincortese7751 Thanks for the quick reply Kevin. The thing you mention about price almost always closing across the TK and KJ before the lagging hits price. That could indeed be, but it doesn't mean that it's always too late in closing out the trade. It could also mean it gives more breathing room, letting the trade run. However judging from your response, that is not what happened😅
Hard to say either way. I'd personally have less breathing room. Take more losses but make more when I'm right. If I have a 40 pip stop but decide I want a 100 pip stop - I'll have a few more wins - but the trades where I would have won anyways I'll make 250% less on because my stop is 250% larger so my sizing was 250% less.
Very good advice Your numbers should be through the roof And thank you for not giving examples with trading view as I use mt4 and you just give general examples
Hi Manchester. Glad you enjoyed. I have a few more videos and a couple more coming where I dive deeper into the bounce trade and show how to eliminate even more of the losing/break even trades, so please check out the ichimoku playlist. Were the examples clear or should I do more examples per video? Every prop firm uses MT4, but I personally find Tradingview much cleaner for charting and scrolling around. Only bad thing about TV is going down to a lower time frame, the data is very limiting.
very nive concept. Can u share the settings to put in a screener, where the retest is done and then we enter the trade(I always prefer to go long). thanks
If you have a way to code it into a scanner the settings would be: 1. price closes above tk 2. tk is above kj (faster moving average above slower) 3. Span A is above Span B (future cloud) 4. Price is above the current cloud (or what was the future cloud 26 periods in the past) 5. Lagging span is above the candle 26 periods ago. 6. The close one candle before this one closed above both current Span A/B or else it may trigger a breakout signal instead of just a bounce trade.
Interesting approach to Ichi! I’m not yet seeing many of these setups on /ES unfortunately. Seems to retest down to Kijun or Kumo, often more than once, then reverse (or occasionally go for a run)
See the image ( ibb.co/bPfWV79 ). On the 4H I see 6 entries for the uptrend that started at the beginning of this month. If you jump down to the 1H or add in more instruments you should have enough to keep you busy. I know what you mean though - I trade 28 FX pairs and often times there is not much going on with the 4H.
thanks for getting back to me with this example@@kevincortese7751. When I saw these entries followed by ranging days I figured it wasn't a strong signal. Probably not used to holding it long enough!
At the close of the 4H candle or just after the open you should be entering the trade. In other words you shouldn't be seeing several 4H candles play out and then decide what you want to do. In my playlist I have videos of ways to filter 4H signals using the daily chart to give a higher probability but it's not really possible to say a signal is strong or not without hindsight. If I'm on the chart, I take all valid signals and exit in a mechanical way.
Hi Kevin! First of all thank you for your work and great content. I have a doubt: How is it that here you are looking for the best ATR multiplier for the initial stop loss, while in your basics course you say that the stop loss should make sense on the graph? Would it be a good or bad idea to just put the stop loss slightly above/below the last resistance/support?
Hi Raz. That is certainly a valid point. I agree that if you weigh all the factors and create a custom stop loss for each position that will be the best. I'd say #1 listed below being the biggest reason but the others also played a role. If you like the method I taught in the basic course and it's working, stick with it if you're have having success. Keep a record of your trades and in 6 months go back and compare the numbers and see if you'd be better or worse with this method. Three reasons I choose to use ATR for the initial stop loss here: 1. Standardization. Apples to apples - There's no way to run meaningful statistics on a 1,000 trade sample if some of the stop losses are 15 pips and others are 75 pips based on market structure. 2. Ichimoku can be a complex system for the viewers and some are not able or willing to do the work that you did to figure out the best stop in each particular case. One simple way is helpful for them to get started. 3. I'm against arbitrary stop losses (when people always put their stop 20 pips away, ignoring market structure of volatility). I tested ATR from .5 all the way up to 3x ATR and let the data speak for itself. Sometimes the market is quiet and sometimes it's volatile. The ATR naturally adapts to changing conditions and is designed to keep us in the trade during normal movements but exit when the market has moved against us more than normal. Thanks for your thoughts Raz and LMK what else you'd like to see.
Hi Kevin, so it seems you are not waiting for the chikou span to break out of the cloud. Have you done any tests side by side to see if waiting for the chikou is more advantageous?
Hi Simonsuh. Great question. In my testing, anywhere from 5-10 pips is fine. You can use 7 or whatever number you choose. The main point is you don't want to exit as soon as it closes on the wrong side of the moving average like most people do. Move the stop loss up to slightly past the wick. Most of the time you'll actually lose an extra 5-10 pips compared to exiting immediately. However, there'll be times when price dipped passed the moving average for one candle and then continues in our direction and these would be a tragedy to miss. Over this large sample size, this strategy makes more money. This is what the small buffer is designed to do. Thanks and lmk if you have any other questions.
I have been watching all of your ichimoku related videos. The videos are very informative from learning perspective. I have a question about using the technique by doing multi time frame analysis. For example, if I look the AU pair on daily time frame the kumo is UP, in 4H time frame it is down, and in 1 hr time frame it is up. I would like to take position using 4H or 1H. What should I do in this case?
In another video on the playlist I talk about using the higher TF. At a minimum I'd want one time frame above to agree - but I'm not looking for everything to line up on the higher. So for example, on the 4H, price is above both the TK and KJ, you go down to the 1H and look for all parts to give you a long setup. If price is below TK and KJ on the 4H you can go to 1H and look for shorts. If on the 24H price is above both TK and KJ that helps the 1H long but I'd still take the 1H long based on the 4H. On the 4H, price is above TK but below KJ. I won't bother even looking at the 1H. Summary, for higher time frame, I generally don't need everything to line up - just looking where price is compared to TK and KJ. Hope that makes sense.
I'm sorry Kevin, but I have one more question. Hope it's not too much trouble. I'm back testing on the 30 min. BTC-USDT chart. Now I've run into a potential bounce trade in which the TK has just shortly dipped below the KJ and then back above. Just after that price went back above the TK (everything lines up at that very moment). Does this count or should the TK always STAY above KJ for a bounce trade long to be valid?
Trades are taken at the candle close. So it doesn't matter where the lines are at 12:15. When the new candle opens at 12:30 you look at the 12-12:30 candle and market order or pass. On the 4H candles, they do gap sometimes so I'll check the candle 5 mins before and enter before the close. You can check at 12:28 but no need to keep checking every 5 or 10 mins.
@@kevincortese7751 Yes, I've seen the video, but at the moment I'm too busy testing the ichimoku and some others that I don't have enough data on yet. I'll dive into that another time.
@@kevincortese7751 Thanks for the quick response! However I think we have a little misunderstanding. It's not that the TK dipped below KJ in the very candle that closed back above (the entry candle). When that candle closed TK was back above the KJ and it was all good. It's that it dipped below the KJ, while the price dip was going on, on the candles before the bounce back up. So for a little while the TK was under the KJ and then popped back. Is this still valid as a trade entry? Or should TK never have closed below KJ for a bounce trade to be valid?
TK is more responsive than KJ, so as price is going down, TK may very well dip below KJ. As price goes up, TK will cross back above. As long as it is above at the candle close I don't really care what happened a few candles ago. In the same way after we enter and price retraces - TK may cross below KJ but I don't exit until price actually closes below TK or KJ. Hope this makes sense and answers your question.
The bounce works on NQ. I don't like holding indices overnight so I'd prob look to enter on the 15M and only before lunch so it has time to run before I close it a few hours later. Haven't tested it on oil. When you say confluence, would ich be filtering another indicator you use?
Hi Kevin thanks for video's i am really just starting but love the Cloud is so visual where my eye's are not at the bottom of a chart. So i assume i can apply same method for equities? seems like i could spend the last hour of the day to trade? also bounce trade. Is there a case where price moves too low to enter a breakout . thanks for any input
Hi Crossdog. Yes, the bounce works for equities as well. I personally would rather open a trade in the morning but you can use it for power hour as well. For a long bounce, the breakout trade has already happened, price only pulled back slightly and this is a continuation of the trade. Not exactly sure what you mean by price moves too low - as in it breaks below the cloud? In this case we would have to wait for it to go back above the cloud to look for a long breakout trade or long bounce. Here is the follow up video to the bounce ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html. If you are entering on the 15M, you'll use the 1H as the higher time frame. If you enter on the 1H, use 4H to filter and entering on the 4H, use daily. Check out the full ichimoku playlist and let me know if you have any questions: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
@@kevincortese7751 thank you for your reply on equities i'm a swing trader so my hold could be a week or 2 rarely 2 . which is why i thought end of day entry as the candle could slide back under. I look foreword to watching more of your video's
That makes sense cross. If you're trading the 4H candle, look a few mins before the candle closes and execute. However, if the 4H candle close doesn't line up with the close of the market - trade based on the candle close and not the market close if that makes sense. The bounce and breakout trades are only valid right at the open of the candle, not some random time 1 hour into the 4H candle.
I've fully tested it on the 1H and it is profitable. I've found it works a little better using TK for shorts and KJ for longs. Currently backtesting it down to the 5M as we speak. Check out the second half of the ichimoku playlist for idea on how to further refine the bounce trade. ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
A long bounce entry is when TK is above KJ. On the last candle price was either below TK but now it closed above. A short entry signal is when TK is below KJ; previous candle closed above TK but now closed below. Future cloud is either green/red and lagging span is above/below price for long/short signal. Once triggered in the trade, you can stay in the trade until price closes below either TK or KJ when long or price closes above TK or KJ when short. You can choose either, they work about the same EV. TK will be in the trade shorter and not give back as much profit when trade turns around but might get whipped out and miss the bigger move. KJ will keep you in for the longest, requires the less babysitting, but also gives back more profit. However, KJ can help you ride the really long trends.
@@kevincortese7751 thank you very much sir, since English isn't my first language, I have to replay some of your video to understand more. Again thank you very much.🙏🙏
The future cloud turned red 15 candles to the right and stayed red during this candle. Just assume 50% of your trades will not work out and that's okay.
@@kevincortese7751 After analyzing the this scenario, I observed that you entered a short position at the end of a pullback in a bullish market…. Price action should not be excluded from this technical indicator strategy.
Thanks for the feedback. Indicators are by nature lagging so I could agree that if someone is well-versed in price action it can be a net positive. Most people aren't and this system has been backtested over thousands of trades and I've shown in other videos that it is +ev on it's own. Losses will happen but we expect to make money in the long run by taking bounce trades under certain conditions which I've outlined in my playlist.
He means you seem to be proncouncing your words very precisely and slow versus speaking in a cadence consistent with regular conversation, similar to if you were normally speaking to a friend @@kevincortese7751
Hats off for such an enormous backtesting...love Ichimoku System..thank you 😊
Thanks Sugar. Did you see part 2 as well? ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
Also check out my Ichimoku playlist. Good luck.
Really interesting insights! Coincidentally I finalized and have been trading exclusively my two ichimoku strategies that I developed on my own and that are very similar to these. Extremely similar. But you've given me a few more things to consider and test.
I'm excited to test them out. Thanks for the video!
If you watch the second half of my ichimoku playlist, you'll get a few more ideas on how to use higher TF to filter out bounce signals as well. LMK how it goes for you.
thanks a lot for the clear and well explained content
Glad you liked it Mr. Dustloc. Check out part 2 where I show how to make the bounce trade even more profitable: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
You'll also love my essential playlist for risk mgt and psychology tips.
@@kevincortese7751 Did you make a mistake? at 17:54 , why your ATR x 1.75 gives you 46.8 pips?
Hi Mr. Dustloc. Good catch! I stand corrected. 31.2 pips for ATR x 1.75 = 54.6 pips for initial stop loss.
thank you Kevin very underatted channel my friend keeo up the great content
Appreciate the feedback Rich. Hopefully you can backtest these strategies and start making money from it yourself!
Your a legend! So much hard work to find these gems!
Thanks Noel! Check out part 2 and test it out yourself. LMK if you have any questions.
i watched all the video's. Im wondering about allot of things. Do you watch high impact news and do you wait for the news to pass. And do you skip entry at the daily when price is close to weekly resistance evendo you have all the right signals. And have you tested to wait for chico to also cross the cloud? In my backtest it cancels allot bad trades. Chico often bounces at the top of the cloud. And do you hold positions over the weekend. And last question, do you take multiple possitions at the same time? @@kevincortese7751
Hi Noel. Those are great questions and ideas for future videos!
During my backtest I took every trade, not considering any of those factors, but I'm also curious how they would impact results.
1. High Impact News - As a practical matter, I tend to stay out of the market 15 mins before/after a high impact event due to slippage and whipsaws. However, I'll let my open trades run. Sometimes my good trades run for a week or more and would be cut short due to multiple news events throughout the week. Taking every trade was profitable and I might guess my results would be worse than theoretically by avoiding news. I could save 1R, maybe 2R with slippage if my breakeven trade loses to news, but I could potentially make a quick 5R etc if news really takes off in my direction.
2-3 Close to weekly resistance/Lagging. For backtesting, I like to have quantifiable numbers to be able to compare apples to apples. How would you define "close?" Within 1ATR, 3ATR, etc? Practically speaking, I wouldn't take a valid trade if the weekly level would not give me the potential of at least 3:1 room to move. I think it's a good idea to test the daily lagging being within 1-3ATR from cloud and seeing how that would affect results. I agree it could cancel out some bad trades, but wonder how many good trades it would nullify as well.
4. Weekends. Yes, I hold over the weekend. I adjust my SL when price closes below TK or KJ and exit automatically when it gets hit.
Hi Noel. Haven't forgotten about this. Working on the video now. Should be out next week.
@@kevincortese7751 Yes! That’s awesome. I’m very curious what you have found. I’ll be watching when it’s out 🙏
Hey, Kevin, these videos are pure gold...I was experimenting myself with Ichimoku and you literally saved me hours of work. Your content are nucch better than the majority of expensive course out there....and I have spent a lot of money. THANK YOU!
Thank you for the kind words. Check out my ichimoku playlist where I show you how to further refine the breakout and bounce systems using the higher time frame. If you will use it on different assets or time frames, please backtest for yourself. Ichimoku is a trend-following system with less than a 50% winrate. It only works if you fully let the trades play out and not take cut your winners short. Keep that in mind. ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
This is exactly what I will do this weekend! Thanks@@kevincortese7751
HI FB. How's the trading going?
Hi Kevin! I’m lately working on market and volume profile and trying to
Expand my competence! I hope you are doing well!
I love your lessons, you so excellent, wow, great job.
Thanks! Check out the full ichimoku playlist and let me know if you have any questions: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
Excellent video/content...Many Thanks!!
Happy you enjoyed it. Check out my full ichimoku playlist and let me know if you have any questions: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
@@kevincortese7751 I am digging in now, you're a great teacher...Thanks again!
Thanks for sharing this tips for trailing stoploss..
I'm using lagging span as take profits once it cross the price its a sign for taking profit, and as I've notice on this video, most likely its the same area or price on your trail stop strategy..
Hi Mini. So if you are long and the lagging drops below the candle 26 periods ago - this is a time you may close out the trade? You may be interested in my lagging span video on how you can use it to filter your entries: ua-cam.com/video/tmNKTyZ5hnA/v-deo.html
Kevin, we are brilliant, noble and strong together.
Best wishes to you as well!
Thank you very much for your massive Work! 🙏
Thanks Mark. Check out Part 2 of the Ich Bounce video ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
You'll also love my essential playlist.
@@kevincortese7751 i will do it! :-)
@@kevincortese7751Maybe as a last addition to everything you can make a short video for an exemplary 4h trade with first the 5 known rules for kumo breakout trade with the right ATR and at the same time observe the rules from the extended video in the 1D chart and in the course of this trades nor the re-entry rules and the right trailing SL....... 🙂
Hi Mark. I know it's a lot to keep track of. I have a couple vids coming out in the next week or so on how to modify the bounce trade. You're right, I should eventually make a video summarizing everything up to that point!
Keep up the good work
Thanks. Let me know if you have any questions.
Could you explain why the 3 candle rule is there? What is it for, choppy markets?
Does it only apply to bounce trades or all trades?
I'm probably beginning to annoy you and I'll ease up a bit with the questions. This is just the way I learn best.
Thanks so much for your patience Kevin. Your effort is very much appreciated!
Your questions are great. Sometimes when I get an exit signal I get another entry signal on that same candle or the next one. Honestly I don't know if it's okay to jump right back in, but it gives me a chance to walk it off and clear my head. In theory, price doesn't usually reverse on a dime and would prob consolidate for a while. You could use a 2 candle rule or no candle rule. Whatever works better for your psychology.
@@kevincortese7751 Thanks for your response Kevin. Very clear explanation, make sense. I forgot to get back to you honestly, I'm sorry!
@@kevincortese7751 P.s. I spend the past weeks testing a lot. All to do with my initial ichimoku strategy and your inputs.
Just for everyone's information: I currently test the ES on the 5 min. TF.
Some things worked better, but most notably (and this I did not expect at all) the bounce trades seemed to yield slightly worse results! The bounce trades seemed to have quite some false signals.
Furthermore I implemented going into the trade when TK and KJ overlap ie. are the same price. Yet, before I waited for the actual split of the lines. Not waiting yielded better results. There were some false signals, but overall the tendency was that I had better entries, because the waiting often wasted part of the move.
Interestingly, your strategy (at least the cloud break strategy) has to have all factors align exactly, otherwise it's a no go. For the ES on the 5 minute this doesn't work well. You'd leave a lot on the table. Therefor I used my old rule > Being able to wait for factors to align, even after the cloud break candle.
My old strategy used to wait for the lagging span to break the cloud. However now I use your rule of it having to break price. This gives better results!
Could the differences here have to do with the TF? Personally I think this may make quite a difference, but I don't know why. You'd say the TFs are just fractals of each other...
All in all I want to thank you so much for all your videos, explanations and input!
Hi Mars. Appreciate you testing things out for yourself. I may have mentioned fractals in previous videos but this is just a way to represent highs and lows (meaning a fractal is a low if two candles on the left and right are higher) - not in the sense that a lower time frame displays exactly the same patterns in a compressed time frame. With any system, the lower time frame will give more false signals. I'm a bit surprised ichimoku is successful at all on the 5m but props to you for making it work. On the 4H, the TK and KJ are occasionally the same value but I can understand on the 5M how they could be the same more often. In that case, I'd agree that as long as price is above for a long it could work taking it right away. Before I tested it, I also thought waiting for the lagging to completely clear the cloud would be a good idea - but as I found it's better to get in when price is still building up the momentum instead of waiting. Check out my essential series that goes over psychology, risk mgt, etc: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGjY9GHP3FOTbzyM6kSfkCx.html
only 1k sub... advise is top notch..
Thanks JM! Did you check out part 2: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
You'll also love my essential playlist. LMK if you have any questions.
I want to try it in forex trading so please can you suggest me the best timeframe and for how much time should i take the trade on ichimoku cloud settings 7,24,52Tenkan-sen (conversion line), Kijun-sen (base line), and Chikou Span (lagging span) respectively. Senkou Span A (leading span A) and Senkou Span B (leading span B) are derived from these and don't need separate settings.please please guide me sir
I've always used the default settings of 9,26,52. You can use it on the 15M, 1H, 4H. I would use 4x higher to filter trades 15M/1H, 1H/4H and 4H/24H. See here for using the higher time to filter: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
First class master class! Thanks Kevin. How does the SL multiplier in your Forex analysis compare to crypto ?
I mainly trade FX and haven't done a deep backtest for crypto. Crypto can be a bit more volatile, but the ATR will take this into account. Depending on the time frame, around 1.25x ATR should be a good starting place. Using TK for trailing will experience less drawdown but have you in and out more. Using KJ will have more drawdown but you can set an alert and not have to mess with it as much.
Suggestion:
Hi Kevin, very interesting videos. I've been looking for, and testing many trading strategies. Now I'm testing ichimoku, since it seems to produce decent trades (I test on the ES, 5 min. TF).
However in my strategy, I exit a little bit differently. With my current strategy, I exit whenever the lagging line crosses back into the body of a candle or even crosses under the body of a candle. Wicks don't count. This seems to trail price really well. However I don't know what the results would be on larger TFs and on the forex pairs of course.
Maybe this would be an interesting test to cover in a video.
Thanks for the great material and keep up the good work!
This is an interesting idea. I quickly clicked through a few charts and price almost always closed across the TK and KJ before (and sometimes many more candles before) the lagging closed into/past the candle. On the 5M like you trade, this may not be a bad thing if the ES tends to bounce up and down on the smaller time frame. It's worth testing to see if it's better to get out when price slightly retraces (TK), stalls out (KJ) or possibly reverses (lagging).
One more thing I didn't mention - we must always have an initial stop loss set. To just get out when the lagging moves across the candle would be a major mistake. On a good day you could expect to win about 40% so you need to plan for losses. Price could start to go the other way as soon as we enter. Exiting with your condition implies that your initial stop loss is even further away or else you'd already be out of the trade. I'd worry this would be such a large initital stop to give you cushion that it'd be hard to achieve a meaningful R:R and end up negative overall.
@@kevincortese7751 Thanks for the quick reply Kevin. The thing you mention about price almost always closing across the TK and KJ before the lagging hits price. That could indeed be, but it doesn't mean that it's always too late in closing out the trade. It could also mean it gives more breathing room, letting the trade run. However judging from your response, that is not what happened😅
@@kevincortese7751 Definitely! I do have a stoploss set, always. I just didn't mention it, because for me that's a given.
Hard to say either way. I'd personally have less breathing room. Take more losses but make more when I'm right. If I have a 40 pip stop but decide I want a 100 pip stop - I'll have a few more wins - but the trades where I would have won anyways I'll make 250% less on because my stop is 250% larger so my sizing was 250% less.
Very good advice
Your numbers should be through the roof
And thank you for not giving examples with trading view as I use mt4 and you just give general examples
Hi Manchester. Glad you enjoyed. I have a few more videos and a couple more coming where I dive deeper into the bounce trade and show how to eliminate even more of the losing/break even trades, so please check out the ichimoku playlist. Were the examples clear or should I do more examples per video? Every prop firm uses MT4, but I personally find Tradingview much cleaner for charting and scrolling around. Only bad thing about TV is going down to a lower time frame, the data is very limiting.
@@kevincortese7751 thanks for the reply
Sure thing Manchester. After the ich playlist, think you'd enjoy my essential playlist which covers risk mgt and psychology as well.
very nive concept.
Can u share the settings to put in a screener, where the retest is done and then we enter the trade(I always prefer to go long). thanks
If you have a way to code it into a scanner the settings would be:
1. price closes above tk
2. tk is above kj (faster moving average above slower)
3. Span A is above Span B (future cloud)
4. Price is above the current cloud (or what was the future cloud 26 periods in the past)
5. Lagging span is above the candle 26 periods ago.
6. The close one candle before this one closed above both current Span A/B or else it may trigger a breakout signal instead of just a bounce trade.
Interesting approach to Ichi! I’m not yet seeing many of these setups on /ES unfortunately. Seems to retest down to Kijun or Kumo, often more than once, then reverse (or occasionally go for a run)
See the image ( ibb.co/bPfWV79 ). On the 4H I see 6 entries for the uptrend that started at the beginning of this month. If you jump down to the 1H or add in more instruments you should have enough to keep you busy. I know what you mean though - I trade 28 FX pairs and often times there is not much going on with the 4H.
thanks for getting back to me with this example@@kevincortese7751. When I saw these entries followed by ranging days I figured it wasn't a strong signal. Probably not used to holding it long enough!
At the close of the 4H candle or just after the open you should be entering the trade. In other words you shouldn't be seeing several 4H candles play out and then decide what you want to do.
In my playlist I have videos of ways to filter 4H signals using the daily chart to give a higher probability but it's not really possible to say a signal is strong or not without hindsight. If I'm on the chart, I take all valid signals and exit in a mechanical way.
🤘
Thanks Paul. LMK if you have any questions about this or the part 2 I posted today.
Hi Kevin! First of all thank you for your work and great content. I have a doubt: How is it that here you are looking for the best ATR multiplier for the initial stop loss, while in your basics course you say that the stop loss should make sense on the graph? Would it be a good or bad idea to just put the stop loss slightly above/below the last resistance/support?
Hi Raz. That is certainly a valid point. I agree that if you weigh all the factors and create a custom stop loss for each position that will be the best.
I'd say #1 listed below being the biggest reason but the others also played a role. If you like the method I taught in the basic course and it's working, stick with it if you're have having success. Keep a record of your trades and in 6 months go back and compare the numbers and see if you'd be better or worse with this method.
Three reasons I choose to use ATR for the initial stop loss here:
1. Standardization. Apples to apples - There's no way to run meaningful statistics on a 1,000 trade sample if some of the stop losses are 15 pips and others are 75 pips based on market structure.
2. Ichimoku can be a complex system for the viewers and some are not able or willing to do the work that you did to figure out the best stop in each particular case. One simple way is helpful for them to get started.
3. I'm against arbitrary stop losses (when people always put their stop 20 pips away, ignoring market structure of volatility). I tested ATR from .5 all the way up to 3x ATR and let the data speak for itself. Sometimes the market is quiet and sometimes it's volatile. The ATR naturally adapts to changing conditions and is designed to keep us in the trade during normal movements but exit when the market has moved against us more than normal.
Thanks for your thoughts Raz and LMK what else you'd like to see.
Hi Kevin, so it seems you are not waiting for the chikou span to break out of the cloud. Have you done any tests side by side to see if waiting for the chikou is more advantageous?
I've actually made a video on this exact topic: ua-cam.com/video/tmNKTyZ5hnA/v-deo.html
Is there any reason how you decided to use 10 pips below/above the fast moving avg (TK) as buffer for SL?
Hi Simonsuh. Great question. In my testing, anywhere from 5-10 pips is fine. You can use 7 or whatever number you choose. The main point is you don't want to exit as soon as it closes on the wrong side of the moving average like most people do. Move the stop loss up to slightly past the wick. Most of the time you'll actually lose an extra 5-10 pips compared to exiting immediately. However, there'll be times when price dipped passed the moving average for one candle and then continues in our direction and these would be a tragedy to miss. Over this large sample size, this strategy makes more money. This is what the small buffer is designed to do. Thanks and lmk if you have any other questions.
I have been watching all of your ichimoku related videos. The videos are very informative from learning perspective. I have a question about using the technique by doing multi time frame analysis. For example, if I look the AU pair on daily time frame the kumo is UP, in 4H time frame it is down, and in 1 hr time frame it is up. I would like to take position using 4H or 1H. What should I do in this case?
In another video on the playlist I talk about using the higher TF. At a minimum I'd want one time frame above to agree - but I'm not looking for everything to line up on the higher. So for example, on the 4H, price is above both the TK and KJ, you go down to the 1H and look for all parts to give you a long setup. If price is below TK and KJ on the 4H you can go to 1H and look for shorts. If on the 24H price is above both TK and KJ that helps the 1H long but I'd still take the 1H long based on the 4H. On the 4H, price is above TK but below KJ. I won't bother even looking at the 1H. Summary, for higher time frame, I generally don't need everything to line up - just looking where price is compared to TK and KJ. Hope that makes sense.
@@kevincortese7751 Thank you for the quick reply. I understand now.
@kevincortese7751 Do you mind sharing the link of that video where you have explained about this multi time frame analysis. Thank you.
You can check out this video: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
I'm sorry Kevin, but I have one more question. Hope it's not too much trouble.
I'm back testing on the 30 min. BTC-USDT chart.
Now I've run into a potential bounce trade in which the TK has just shortly dipped below the KJ and then back above. Just after that price went back above the TK (everything lines up at that very moment). Does this count or should the TK always STAY above KJ for a bounce trade long to be valid?
Trades are taken at the candle close. So it doesn't matter where the lines are at 12:15. When the new candle opens at 12:30 you look at the 12-12:30 candle and market order or pass. On the 4H candles, they do gap sometimes so I'll check the candle 5 mins before and enter before the close. You can check at 12:28 but no need to keep checking every 5 or 10 mins.
BTW, since you mentioned BTC, have you checked out my SuperTrend backtest. I use BTC as the instrument there.
@@kevincortese7751 Yes, I've seen the video, but at the moment I'm too busy testing the ichimoku and some others that I don't have enough data on yet. I'll dive into that another time.
@@kevincortese7751 Thanks for the quick response! However I think we have a little misunderstanding. It's not that the TK dipped below KJ in the very candle that closed back above (the entry candle). When that candle closed TK was back above the KJ and it was all good.
It's that it dipped below the KJ, while the price dip was going on, on the candles before the bounce back up. So for a little while the TK was under the KJ and then popped back. Is this still valid as a trade entry? Or should TK never have closed below KJ for a bounce trade to be valid?
TK is more responsive than KJ, so as price is going down, TK may very well dip below KJ. As price goes up, TK will cross back above. As long as it is above at the candle close I don't really care what happened a few candles ago. In the same way after we enter and price retraces - TK may cross below KJ but I don't exit until price actually closes below TK or KJ. Hope this makes sense and answers your question.
Good
does it work the same in lower time frime such as 1,5,15 min ?
Hi Willy. There'll obviously be more false signals on the lower time frames but it works as well. I'd start on the 15M and prob stay away from the 1M.
@@kevincortese7751 thank you
How effective would this be on usoil or ustech if i want to add it as another confluence?, obviously I'll back test but second opinions dont hurt...
The bounce works on NQ. I don't like holding indices overnight so I'd prob look to enter on the 15M and only before lunch so it has time to run before I close it a few hours later. Haven't tested it on oil. When you say confluence, would ich be filtering another indicator you use?
Hi Kevin thanks for video's i am really just starting but love the Cloud is so visual where my eye's are not at the bottom of a chart. So i assume i can apply same method for equities? seems like i could spend the last hour of the day to trade? also bounce trade. Is there a case where price moves too low to enter a breakout . thanks for any input
Hi Crossdog. Yes, the bounce works for equities as well. I personally would rather open a trade in the morning but you can use it for power hour as well. For a long bounce, the breakout trade has already happened, price only pulled back slightly and this is a continuation of the trade. Not exactly sure what you mean by price moves too low - as in it breaks below the cloud? In this case we would have to wait for it to go back above the cloud to look for a long breakout trade or long bounce. Here is the follow up video to the bounce ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html. If you are entering on the 15M, you'll use the 1H as the higher time frame. If you enter on the 1H, use 4H to filter and entering on the 4H, use daily. Check out the full ichimoku playlist and let me know if you have any questions: ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
@@kevincortese7751 thank you for your reply on equities i'm a swing trader so my hold could be a week or 2 rarely 2 . which is why i thought end of day entry as the candle could slide back under. I look foreword to watching more of your video's
That makes sense cross. If you're trading the 4H candle, look a few mins before the candle closes and execute. However, if the 4H candle close doesn't line up with the close of the market - trade based on the candle close and not the market close if that makes sense. The bounce and breakout trades are only valid right at the open of the candle, not some random time 1 hour into the 4H candle.
Hello sir, thanks for the video,.does it work for 1 hour time frame?
I've fully tested it on the 1H and it is profitable. I've found it works a little better using TK for shorts and KJ for longs. Currently backtesting it down to the 5M as we speak. Check out the second half of the ichimoku playlist for idea on how to further refine the bounce trade. ua-cam.com/play/PLa6XDmoqdrjGUklLkTLV0Tymnh0g1U8_U.html
@@kevincortese7751 thank you sir..
U mean using TK and KJ for exit confirmation?
A long bounce entry is when TK is above KJ. On the last candle price was either below TK but now it closed above. A short entry signal is when TK is below KJ; previous candle closed above TK but now closed below. Future cloud is either green/red and lagging span is above/below price for long/short signal. Once triggered in the trade, you can stay in the trade until price closes below either TK or KJ when long or price closes above TK or KJ when short. You can choose either, they work about the same EV. TK will be in the trade shorter and not give back as much profit when trade turns around but might get whipped out and miss the bigger move. KJ will keep you in for the longest, requires the less babysitting, but also gives back more profit. However, KJ can help you ride the really long trends.
@@kevincortese7751 thank you very much sir, since English isn't my first language, I have to replay some of your video to understand more. Again thank you very much.🙏🙏
✌️
Thanks. Check out my follow-up video on how to filter out bad bounce signals: ua-cam.com/video/Gwj5SW0jWs0/v-deo.html
19:52 You lost that trade, because there was a possibility that the kumo cloud had not yet turned bearish at the close of that specific candlestick.
The future cloud turned red 15 candles to the right and stayed red during this candle. Just assume 50% of your trades will not work out and that's okay.
@@kevincortese7751 After analyzing the this scenario, I observed that you entered a short position at the end of a pullback in a bullish market…. Price action should not be excluded from this technical indicator strategy.
Thanks for the feedback. Indicators are by nature lagging so I could agree that if someone is well-versed in price action it can be a net positive. Most people aren't and this system has been backtested over thousands of trades and I've shown in other videos that it is +ev on it's own. Losses will happen but we expect to make money in the long run by taking bounce trades under certain conditions which I've outlined in my playlist.
Bro looks like Tyson Fury of Trading
Haha. Thanks Sivan.
Dude, put some cap on the head ....
Send me and Jeff Bezos one. Thanks :P
Is there a reason you are speaking like you are addressing someone who doesn’t speak English 😂😂😂
What do you mean?
He means you seem to be proncouncing your words very precisely and slow versus speaking in a cadence consistent with regular conversation, similar to if you were normally speaking to a friend @@kevincortese7751
Oh okay! Guess that's the camera's effect. I typically watch other YT videos at 2x. Try that.
@@kevincortese7751 Yo hablo español y me parece perfecto el ritmo que tienes para hablar 👌
Gracias mi amigo