Economist Mark Blyth and the future of the Eurozone (with slides)
Вставка
- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- Mark Blyth, Brown University Eastman Professor of Political Economy, speaks to the AUP community on the future of the Eurozone. Professor Blyth is the acclaimed author of the 2012 book "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea". His talk addresses some of the challenging questions facing the European Union and by definition the global economy. Will Greece emerge from the insolvency ward of the monetary hospice? Is the future of the euro secure? What about the Eurozone itself? What are the various economic and political factors at play? Hear from a renowned international economist on this very timely and important topic.
This version of the event includes the slides from his presentation.
You realize how he speaks about historical figures, like Adam Smith, John Locke or Schumpeter, he speaks as if they're alive. He has a great gift for adding color and texture to a lecture.
my left ear is loving this
My sound jack only gives out right-side sound, so neither of my ears got to enjoy it.
Nice! You seem are aware of your disabilities.
I moved the browser over to the left, worked perfectly.
facts
If I had teachers like this maybe I would have stuck at school more.
Every government needs a Professor Blyth. It may lack the freedom/ability/political will to address the issues outlined in this brilliant exposition but will no longer be able to feign ignorance, disguise its staggering incapacity to grasp the challenge of caring for its citizens in an uncertain world in the throes of a global paradigm shift. The locus of the global economy in 2018 is the Asia-Pacific. The EU which dates from 1997, not 1957 as Europeanists would have us believe, was for all practical purposes still born; an anachronistic quasi-imperialistic fantasy. History will not be kind to its progenitors.
As an Economic student in my younger years from Durham Uni...this guy is excellent.
This man is the most brilliant and engaging lecturer I've ever seen. I can't imagine another giving such a detailed presentation on economics (of which I have an amateur interest) as engrossing as this. It's enough to tempt me to change my academic focus so that I can apply to Brown for post-graduate work, just to study under his direction. Pure, hilarious, brilliance.
Teotifoso you might also like Grant Williams
Most of my lecturers were like this (and I didn't even go to a top tier university). I think Britain is lucky to have some good (i.e. both intellectual AND engaging) academics. Being clever is one thing, but if your audience falls asleep while you are giving a talk then you're not going to be an effective teacher. This guy gets it right - you call tell he loves his subject and his enthusiasm is infectious!
@The cameraman: This is not a movie or a documentary; You don't need fancy camera angles or closeup shots of his face. Please keep the camera pointed at the slides so that we can actually see what he's talking about.
Jelle Kastelein Any editor worth his salt would get hold of the slides and actually cut them into the edit. I do wish more people would do this.
He's bloody right about British infrastructure!
wow! fantastic talk even if you don't understand economics a hundred percent this is great and Mark's humor is brilliant, my god those students must all be privileged wannabee bankers because there sense of humor was non-existent in what was a hilarious presentation into the dark farce of economics. great mythbuster if anyone can recommend other presentations please link to me :)
great lecture
Great lecture. Cameraman evidently dozed off tho, so we get Blyth gesturing at offscreen slides.
Good historical review that applies to Western economics.
Something overlooked at 4:45 : the human cost of forming the EURO, 150,000 dead an 3,000,000 displaced in the former Yugoslavia. How do I figure this extraordinary claim: The ten day war in Slovenia 1991 was no worse (and better organised) than the conflict in Romania the year before; The EEC/EU were given a diplomatic open goal - tell the Yugoslavs to stop shooting at each other, and we will expedite your entry to the EU as a single nation; with your solid industry, established middle class and endless beaches and skiing, you could be among the first Eastern European countries to make money, lots of it; and while you make money you can slowly give up that federal government and gain some devolved control without killing each other.
Belgrade was interested, Ljubljana was interested, Zagreb was interested, Paris, London, New York, were all interested. Berlin was not. It wanted to effect some force on the direction of the EURO, of EU future policy, it was in the process of unifying and to anyone who lived there at the time (I did) they were very keen to shrug off the occupied naughty nation of 1945 image. So what they did was unilaterally recognise the independence of Croatia and Slovenia. Croatia who had been their holocaust teammate tearing apart Yugoslavia within living memory.
Everyone waited for Brussels to tell the Germans to stand down. To explain this was incendiary diplomacy and people will die. Brussels couldn't keep banging on about being the greatest ever instrument of peace if it become midwife to the worst European war since 1945. David Owen and Mr Vance asked the Germans to hold back.
Germany said F**k you, we don't want to stand in the corner anymore, we are a strong and confident nation, we want to exercise some of that power stuff. Oh and you need the gravity of the DM to make the EURO and your whole next stage of Unioning work. Brussels said Ok fair enough F**k the Yugoslavs. Serb and Croat were at each others throats in days, Bosnians and Kosovans would soon follow.
How the Greek bail out package works. Simplified version. It’s a slow day in a little Greek village.
The rain is beating down and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt and everyone is living on credit.
On this particular day a rich German tourist arrives in the village and he stops at the local Hotel looking for a room for 1 night. He puts a €100 note as a deposit on the reception desk and tells the owner he would like to inspect the rooms before he makes a decision. The owner gives him some keys and the German walks upstairs to take a look at the rooms.
The Hotel owner then grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher then takes the €100 note and runs down the street and pays his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads off to pay the supplier of feeds and fuel.
The guy at the farmers Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to the Taverna to pay off his bar bill.
The publican of the Taverna slips the €100 note to the local prostitute drinking at the bar who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her services on credit.
The prostitute then rushes off with the €100 note to pay her outstanding bill at the Hotel.
The Hotel owner places the €100 note back on the desk so the rich German suspects nothing.
At that moment the rich German arrives back at the reception desk, picks up the €100 note stating that the rooms are not satisfactory. He puts the €100 note back in his pocket and leaves.
No one produced anything.
No one earned anything.
However, the whole village is now debt free and looking forward to the future. And that in simplified terms is how the Greek bail out package works.
Rob bie All because the Greeks lived WAY beyond their means. Germany does not get in these kinds of shit situations
@@jacobjorgenson9285 Yes we know the Greeks lived beyond their means. However they were encouraged to borrow and spend more than they could ever afford to repay. Everything in Greece runs inefficiently. It would be cheaper to close the Greek railway system for example and the government pay for taxis for everyone. I just thought the bail out package was comical but just slightly true.
Rob bie If you buy something because you saw advertisement and you can’t really afford it , that’s not the advertisers fault...
@@jacobjorgenson9285 You're missing the point my friend.
That's a recipe for perpetual debt.
could someone recommend a book on economics that would help understand all this?
No. Most textbooks in economics are crap. And I say this as someone who is writing their masters thesis next semester...
But...I recommend reading Stiglitz, Steve Keene, Blythe himself...there's a few so it's not all bad :)
I'm scotttish, I think this way, I drink a lot, cheers!
With slides? Not all of them
What True Academics do for a living.
13:50 , 14:38, 15:42 , 16:36 , 16:50 , 18:40 , 20:04 , 20:29 , 21:23 , 22:55 , 32:11 , 31:49 , 42:14
Jeeeeez that audience are a humourless lot
The first thing they beat out of you in Econ 101 is your sense of humour.
The next thing they beat out of you is hope for the future.
Then we send these people on to jobs at central banks which have immense ramifications as to economic policy and political economy, and expect them to make the world tomorrow better than the one we have today.
@@MonMalthias that explains a lot! Thank you
They aren't being picked up on the microphone. We don't really know whether they were laughing or not
Mark Blyth - isn't there a built in bias that growth is good? We seem to have this idea that we can achieve a linear progress of endless summer when we live on a cyclical planet... put another way, why is it always assumed that inflation is good?
What is that word at 10:22? I've tried searching but to no avail. It sounds like "opturious".
obstreperous
Nah, it doesn't sound like that...
Besides, that wouldn't really fit into that context...
"usurious" said oddly?
He doesn't strike me as the type to mince his words...
40:00 !
What is an average Tuesday?
One where banks loan out a hundred times more money than they could ever expect to get back, package the loans up into mortgage backed securities, and then go gamble on the stock market.
I think he means in a 'normal' day where nothing particular is happening.
Wish the audience had a sense of humour.
You only wish the audience had your sense of humour. ;)
I think they were just being polite because It went over their heads
They are French students. The Educational system in France does not encourage either original thought or humour.
@@MrJonRio
50+ Nobel laureates disagree. Apart from that: studying at the American University of Paris doesn't make you a french citizen.
@@MrJonRio Either that or you just can't hear them because they weren't being picked up by the microphone.
Im dizzy
Say all that again - s l o w l y!
So what's the solution? Or are we just screwed, no matter what?
"The" solution?
No idea, but I think there are several options we can take. Progressive taxation (i.e. tax the rich more); basic income, and probably other ones. Each has its drawbacks, but considering that the current final destination seems to be a sort of neo-feudalism, we should play all the cards we have...
+PeeZzz
First of all, you are the first smart guy who discovered that every lecture analyze the current situation but NO ONE has a solution. Well, there is a solution, and it NOT Progressive taxes or Universal Basic Income or any other crazy new policy that is meant to keep Capitalism going. We are in a late stage Capitalism and once the patient of cancer is in a late stage, there is no treatment. This is where we are. Politicians do not like that, and make sure that this ticking bomb won't go on while they are in office, but this is the truth.
Pay off your debts, save up and invest, don't rely on the state. It takes pressure off the government to pay for everyone and, at minimum, puts you in a better financial condition to deal with whatever happens.
Solution? There’s no solution to life! Just live it, go see the world, learn a valuable skill, perhaps two /three languages , we all die in the end
The central bankers need to step away from the table and let the chips fall where they may. Let the price of money be determined by the free market, just like most other prices are or were.
The Continuity-of-Banking (TBTF, TBTJ) is due to their cardinal role in selling out the Western Interests to China,
and the geographic remains to Africans, in order to finish the job.
Econmy rétrécit , mais la population mondiale prolonge et qui est la menace ultime:
. 7 500 000 000 personnes en 2016 et + 1 000 000 000 presque chaque décennie
Anéantir forêt tropicale sauvages océans de la vie etc...
La solution à ça c'est le développement économique, et l'éducation des femmes. Cheers.
:-)
There is a very simple solution for greece nobody has thought of and I don't understand why they didn't do it: invite the whole population to move to germany They run the show anyway. Maybe even offer to pay for the plane ticket for the poorest who cannot afford the move. One of the few perks of the EU is free movement. Just move to the countries that are doing better and set up a parallel society there... Many many non-EU citizens are doing that, so why shouldn't the greeks do the same? People were also invited by their own government to move to america at the beginning of the past century because their countries offered little future prospects. Germany has also a deep demographic problem, so the rest of europe which has record high levels of unemployment should move to germany. That solves the demographic problem for germany and takes care of the unemployed masses in the rest of the EU. Plus germany would finally become the multicultural utopia it aspires to be, where germans are not the majority anymore and the german language is only spoken by few. Problem solved.
Good suggestion, but Mrs Merkel apparently has already solved the demographic problem of Germany: she happily welcomed more then 1 million of refugees, to join her prosperous nation ...
It's already been happening. Some areas in the UK are literally Eastern European.
This is no solution, this is happing and part of the game. Global feudalism...
Maybe the Greek should pretend to be Syrian .. from German point of view they don't look different.
To big to bail, that doesn't sound so bad
the deadest crowd
I wouldn't call him an economist but a political scientist. his PhD is in political science, not economics.
Which, as I hope you know, means that he understands something about economy, which economists don't: namely that it is a social/political phenomenon.
+pergamonrecordings
"Which, as I hope you know, means that he understands something about economy, which economists don't: namely that it is a social/political phenomenon."
Why would you think that economists do not study relevant social/political phenomena? Are you claiming that a PhD in Political Science contains more economic theory and history of such than one in actual economics. Maybe a PhD in History would trump both according to your logic?!
Liking someone's ideas and the way they present them does not mean that their professional understanding of them cannot be called into question, especially when Blyth himself is calling into question those of professional economists.
Austerity:
In 2004, both Bibi of Israel and Merkel of Germany implemented harsh Austerity (Harz IV in Germany),
which salvaged the till-then sinking economies of these two export-oriented countries.
The Greek problem is its absence of academia. Germany has lost its academia and has compensated for it with Diesel-Gate and reliability problems, yet mostly with Chinese-cahoots. Continental-Europe is doomed due to shitty Colleges.
Hartz IV was implemented earlier, by Schröder
He's speaking English... And I haven't got a fucking clue what he's talking about!
I disagree with him on one account- current world economy is very simple system if you base your understanding on Marxism, not on pseudo science which currently called economy. For last 40-50 years total profit of corporations and the rich after taxes > then capital economy need for normal expansion. That mean rich and corporations have too mach money they have nowhere to invest. So, where this money go? 1) lending to governments for governments to spend and keep economy going. 2) lending to consumers for them to spend and keep economy going. 3 property and other fixed assets to give money to population to spend and keep economy going. 4 expand capital markets ( capital expanded in all ex socialists countries at that time). Now all this ways to recycle money is practically finished and world economy entering in infinite cycle of stagflation. The only way to save Capitalism is New deal style of redistribution of wealth + Steep assets and property tax world wide. Any half measures will lead to WW3 and destruction of humanity.
Mutineer9 it seems you're a bit confuse, for instance stagflation is a portmanteau for stagnation and inflation ... well where do you see inflation? Actually, most of the economies in the world are experiencing is deflation, quite the opposite
Yes, by official counting which including only commodities prices in calculating inflation. Many countries do not count housing cost when they calculate inflation. New Zealand where I live does not. But in NZ official inflation is .6%, but if you include housing cost ( In terms of rent, not in terms of buying house, which is mach higher) inflation hit 2.5 - 3%. Every year average % of income people pay for housing grows. Based on what I read there the same thin all around the world, even for people owning houses amount they have to pay for morgage increase all the time. Not including housing cost is just data manipulation...
well, not for sure in Italy where I own an apartment - its value went down of >30% since 2010. Same things happened everywhere in the country. Also rentals went down. Mortgages went down too, for instance my sister was able to renegotiate her mortgage from 6% to 3% ...
Well, that is not my experience in NZ. Simple house in Auckland now cost 1000 000$ with average household income 50K. But there is other aspect that apply to NZ, can not speak about Italy. IN 70th inflation were calculated based on fixed bracket of good. Like that mach bread, that mach milk that many washing machines. That created some problem with technology changes. So, they change methodology. Instead fixed list and amount of good they start to adjust based on what people actually buy. Which does work when people income stable or raising. But what if it fall? Example people want to save some money on food and price of tomatoes raise a bit. Well , people stop buying tomatoes and replace them with carrots, price on which did not change. According to new methodology, there is deflation in food prices, because total people spend on food drop. And what will be effect of drooping consumption on price of tomatoes? Less volume mean bigger cost per unit for production and distribution, meaning price going further up. Something that i observe in NZ.
So your personal experience in NZ, a small country and economy is how you devise a solution for the world lol. You have no idea what stagflation is. Also hugely dramatizing the eventual effects like WW3 and destruction of humanity.
Don't quit your day job any time soon to become savior of the world.
Europe should be come 1country.
Let's call it Babel.
Political philosopher, not economist.
Why don't we just go back to sound money and keep the college professors entirely out of it?
terrible speaker, slow down please .... interesting discussion, take some lessons please the topics are interesting
So you are saying that the government should spend more during recession even though the government is broke and the government is insanely inefficient when spending money? You really need to read Peter Schiffs book how a economy grows and why it crashes because you know nothing about economics.
takes Blyth and a bunch of brainstorming 'geniuses' to figure out politics will move left! He's too cocky now and missing things, not impressed, his focus is quite narrow.
I like your ideas better oh! wait a minute,you haven't any!! and with that settled there really is only one question 'what the fuck do YOU know about it ? Do you expect him to go through every political and economic model that ever existed ? IN ONE HOUR ? One things for certain you're not one of these 'brainstorming geniuses' now go and get your squeegee and bucket and get back to work.